Wednesday, October 17, 2007

The India US nuclear deal - Dead.


Many of you have been asking me to comment on the state of the Indo US nuclear deal.

I am afraid it is dead.

Some of you may recall that in 1998 the NPA in America and the Left Front in India had joined hands to oppose the Vajpayee government's decision to test nuclear weapons at Pokhran. The NPA and the Left were unanimous in describing the test as a "Hindu" bomb, developed by India's "macho" scientists and "rambos" in the research community. Both the NPA and the Left openly insulted the capabilities of India's scientists and both questioned the competence of India's technologists in the field of nuclear reactor technology.

During this period the marriage between the NPA and the Left Front blossomed. Leading Leftist luminaries were invited to lecture at US universities, and other US fora about the what a "Hindu Nationalist BJP" was doing to harm the world and how "Hindu Nazis" were bent on committing a "Muslim Genocide". Upon encouragement from people in various organs of the US government, these left wing writers spat out standard agitprop material against the BJP. Thanks to the media support provided by an American media that can't resist printing tripe about India, the books these people wrote went on sell and made them millions. In this and other ways the US fed millions of dollars into the Left Front and artificially bolstered its election prospects. The Congress (I) could not secure a majority and was forced to make a deal with the Left and form the government with their support. After the Left became part of the government, their demands on any major expenditure became severe. Every single major contract issued by the GoI had to be padded in ways that suited the Left more than it suited the UPA. Rumour mills in Delhi suggest that the Left Front now sits on a large pot of "political capital" which it can use to swing an additional 30 seats in the Lok Sabha if it chooses to.

When the India-US nuclear deal became public in 2005, the NPA mounted a vociferous campaign in the US to stall its progress in the US Congress. And miraculously, the Left Front which had opposed the nuclear tests, expressed its desire to stop the deal because it may be interpreted as India giving up the right to test nuclear weapons. Doubtlessly the NPA are rejoicing at what was an apparently effortless victory. Some would even go further to say, the NPA engagement with the Left has paid off big-time.

They may be right in more ways than they care to realise.

The Left now rules India.

Soon they will ask for India to sign an India-China Nuclear Deal. There are many things that a India-China nuclear deal could be based on, for example - a Uranium for Thorium exchange, possibly auxilliary deals where Chinese companies would build PWRs in India and Indian companies would build FBR/AHWRs in China. China as a member of the NSG has consistently demonstrated its ability to circumnavigate NPA bullshit emanating from the US. India doesn't care as long as it has enough Uranium to fuel its reactors.

Given the precarious situation of the US Dollar and the fact that every 5 year old in America is at this very moment putting a Chinese manufactured toy in his/her mouth or sleeping in a crib made in Guizhou or perhaps drooling on a pair of pyjamas which were made in Shanghai.... one realises that the US will be able to do absolutely nothing to stop an India-China deal. I mean they could put some sanctions on India or China or etc... but frankly they will be completely ineffective.

Ofcourse once the India-China deal is inked, and the first shipment of Australian mined Chinese packed Uranium lands up in India, the Americans will have to deal with the unfortunate circumstance where it will be cheaper to use a dollar bill in place of a sheet of imported toiletpaper.

I suppose the Americans could always immediately invade Iran to look good before the American media but then that would only leave them with the joy of occupying two countries that share a "long porous border" with Pakistan. They could just invade Pakistan, but then they have to deal with the joy of stabilising a country with 150 Million poor and hungry zealots.

If any NPA actively encouraged the Indian Left to block the deal, I wish to congratulate them on having successfully knocked the America off the high table of Asia - it seems that is what the NPA wanted all along. Perhaps they were planning on sacrificing America's seat at the high-table of Asia to gain "moral" brownie points with space aliens? I don't know, NPA thinking has always been a puzzle for me.

If the NPA did not actively encourage the Indian Left to block the deal, I wish to ask them to reflect upon my earlier suggestions that the NPA should simply shut up instead of filling the air with suspicious utterances. The NPA disregarded my warnings about misusing channels of communication between India and the US for pushing personal agendas. The atmosphere of anxiety in India over the Indo-US nuclear deal which the Left successfully used to its political advantage is a direct byproduct of the NPA war dances before the Indian media.

I now sit back and watch as the NPA run around trying to convince their American audience that India alone is to blame for this disaster.

I would love to point out in detail how the NPA are lying, but I am too busy learning Chinese. I am also digging around for my copy of Mao's Red Book and hopefully when I see the Chinese Ambassador at the party in Chanakyapuri, he will appreciate that my bandgala-pantaloon combination is at the very least a poor imitation of Chairman Mao's suit.

All hail the United Peoples Republic of Ch-in-dia!!
Long Live Chairman Mao, Long Live Chairman Karat!!


At 10:38 AM, Blogger quantum chaos said...

For somebody who aspires to join IFS these words are nothing short of practically mean india is screwed in long run.
is there no way out?

At 11:04 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

M, as always a pleasure to read your take.

Couple of comments:
1. You mention NPA/Indian left combine vilifying the Indian scientists for the 1998 test. How does that jive with your take that current leftie opposition to the deal is its interpretation of the deal as abdicating the right to test. One of them cant be right. I figure your first take is more on the dot. Does the 2nd one need revision to state its real motive.
2. So you compltely absolve MMS&co for the failure to consummate the deal?


At 12:04 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Quantum Chaos,

If you want to be a bureaucrat, then my friend you have be renounce politics.

A bureaucrat with a political opinion is like prostitute lecturing on chastity.

Dear Pradeep,

I have no idea what the real reasons for the coherence between NPA view and the Indian Left's views is. I am not making up reasons for why the Left is doing things.

I am merely noting that the Left joined the NPA in condemning the Indian nuclear tests of 1998 because the left said it was against India testing nuclear weapons.

Today that very same left front is rejecting the Indo-US nuclear deal because it may impinge on India's freedom to test nuclear weapons!

This is a contradiction in the Left Front's position that is apparent to everyone who listens to them, but somehow they are not particularly bothered by this.

This seems to be the Left Front's idea of realpolitik.

I guess you can say that they are being hypocritical, but honestly boss, are they being that much more hypocritical than the Americans?

If the Americans can talk about Nuclear Non-Proliferation on one hand and then neatly build arsenals of thousands of nuclear weapons, is there really anything wrong with the Indian Left front saying that they oppose nuclear testing but don't want India to even remotely suggest that it will not test weapons?

As things stand, the Left Front would also prefer it if India abandons its nuclear deal with the US for a closer relationship with China and the Left would really like it if we don't take the American invasion of Iran quietly.

I can't say if the Americans will like the United Peoples Republic of Chindia very much, but seeing how well they get along with the PRC, and the dictators of Pakistan, I don't know see why they would be entirely against the idea of a leftist government spewing anti-American hatred in India.

It seems to me, as a casual observer, the Americans are much more comfortable with people who hate them, than they are with people who have no particular opinion of them.

At 1:23 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Pradeep,

What more can MMS and UPA do?

They tried their best to make this deal go through but there was so much suspicion created by NPA utterances in Delhi that overcoming the atmosphere of suspicion proved impossible.

The Left simply exploited the environment of suspicion to their advantage.

At 8:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hi m,
1)I am very sorry to say m , you have become far far too clever than most of us who have gathered here to listen to your posts.
2)There was an unofficial rule on the disreputable forum that a poster should never ever point out forum rules to admins. There is something which you have written in your own blogs which could be pointed out, but it will mean breaking the too were an admin before.
3)Govt's ususally have two set of documents(whenever one sign's agreements) one that can be made public and the other real one is kept far away from the public gaze.
Kindly post the *full text* of India US engagement. Public will never ever know behind the scenes hectic activity. What's the point in discussing?
4)This deal will become a reality by the end of Bush's 2nd term.

At 3:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hi m,
look at this link

From the link G.W.Bush had to say this
""He added, “My intent is to continue to rally the world, to send a focused signal to the Iranian government that we will continue to work to isolate you in the hopes that at some point somebody else shows up and says it’s not worth the isolation.”
Replace Iran with India, one will come to know how much music we faced during the Bush's term, yet he is the friendliest American president we ever had in the whitehouse !!!

At 8:14 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Anonymous,

I don't recall any such rule on the forum. Even if my memory fails me somehow, there is nothing to stop posters from writing to the admin and expressing their displeasure at the fact that certain views were allowed to air freely.

What about my writings do you find too difficult to follow.

As far as I know is no hidden subtext to the J18 agreement. This is an illusion created by the NPA and their cohorts in India to scotch a perfectly reasonable deal. The Indian public has fallen for it, and I don't think the Indian public is being unreasonable either.

The Left sensed a political opportunity and took it. However if the NPA think that the Left is their friend, they have another thing coming.

The Left wants a deal with China. Such a deal will permanently anchor the Left in the Indian Parliament in a position of perenial dominance.

Unfortunately this possibility does not seem to have occured to the NPA and American policy people who built bridges to the Left in a bid to keep the BJP in check.

At 8:19 AM, Blogger maverick said...


I don't think we can play these word replacement games with the US President's statements.

It is generally assumed that unless someone specifically tells you to play a word replacement game, you are not expected to play one.

So far we have recieved no intimation that such games have to be played. There has been no suggestion that the US is using Iran as a demonstration of a generalised strategy that it intends to apply at a later date to us.

The problem in Iran is that the US is unable to convince the Iranian government to go slow with their shift away from the Dollar. Additionally Iran sits astride a major narcotics trade route that goes to Europe. The US has been unable in getting the Iranians to keep that route "modulated" to levels the US is comfortable with.

Whatever posturing is occuring vis-a-vis Iran on the proliferation front, is a way for the US to address these other problems that it cannot directly present in public discussions.

As far as I know, GWB is the closest thing to a friend India has had in the White House. This arrangement may seem unsatisfactory to people, but I come from a school that says... you can always do worse.

At 9:11 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't just blame the NPA's and the Left.

Some of our so-called "right" are in there as well. That includes the BJP and the DF (disreputable forum).

Hell, currently the charge on the DF is being led by two of the admins, one of whom seems to have no concern for anything other than those events that can be linked, no matter how tenuously, to what ever "Izlam" did a thousand years ago. The other one, regularly breaks one of the most imp rules of the old DF by constantly insinuating his "secret" knowledge and his meetings with "important" folk, and has now joined those attacking our scientists - note the recent swipe against Kokadkar, and the constant undermining of the deterrent!

So it's not just the left and the NPA's. To be fair to them, the Left have *never* claimed to be "nationalists" and the NPA's are of course protecting what hey see as "western" interests.

But the behaviour of the BJP/right types and some of the DF people is absolutely disgusting.

At 10:01 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

M, thanks for the clarification.

"What more can MMS and UPA do?

They tried their best to make this deal go through but there was so much suspicion created by NPA utterances in Delhi that overcoming the atmosphere of suspicion proved impossible."

The NPA are the Ayotullahs for a reason. Their aims are clear (get bitten they will later - but thats not of interest now). Why blame them more than the usual.

All that air of suspicion and the fog surrounding it is hardly the work of the NPA's (but I can definitely see them generating that much gas though :)). Did you seriously not feel scared the way MMS and co played the game. No debate, no word, one comment against and out come the uber-senstive gaalis. Who was being jittery.

At 12:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hi anon's,
1)Regarding the charge against the admins , yes it is true. The DF has gone too far in demonizing a certain religion.

2)But tell me how will you digest such fanciful writings of an ex-admin that suggests of a possible marriage between NPA and the Left. Left may have taken some steps to fill there hands with green, but no to the extent maverick suggests. This reminds me of the incident when IB tagetted Nambinarayan for leaking rockets secrets to Maldivian agents!! who were supposed to be working for ISI!! Later APJ himself rebutted such accusations.
3)Left & Co are not such irresponsible idiots. Case to point is that there has not been a single no-confidence motion against the UPA itself sponsored by rightists who hate what MMS & Co have done.
4) The poiliticians may have stooped but not to the extent of selling there country. Remember Dhiren Bhagat? What happened to him? MKN is far too powerful. U think he is just keepping quite helplessly watching the situation. He might be eating tandoori chicken
All this opposition will get us a better deal.
5)Lastly read the comments by H.N.Sethna former AEC chief. He sais if not Nov then by mar/2008 the deal will be completel.
6) I can write more but friendship is far more than winning debating points. Look at how old friends have come apart on DF on the this thread

At 1:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hi all,
Regarding left's posturing
1)Left has underhand dealings with the Congress.
2)It has underhand dealings with even the RSS leadership!!
3)Left has covert relationship with the Chinese
4)Now according to Maverick Left has relationships with the NPA

Maverick is not completely coming clean on the theatrics that is being played in N.Delhi.

At 6:41 AM, Blogger maverick said...


The people on the disreputable forum are the unfortunate victims of the NPA. Why stop there, the whole of India's national security community has been harrassed out of their wits by the NPA tactics.

There is complete confusion in India about what American intentions here are.

On the face of George Bush has given his go ahead to this deal. And in an equally brazen fashion, the NPA - who we know are a front for Americas carbon fuel mafia and America bombmakers - oppose this deal. The NPA allies in India - the Left front risk losing their seats in the parliament to block this deal.

President Bush's motivations were clear. He wanted to minimize America's addition to carbon fuels. He wanted to ensure that American R&D and engineering especially in the nuclear energy arena has a global competitiveness.

The NPA opposed the deal because it publicly raped their false god - the Non Proliferation Treaty - that golden calf around which they cluster with all their intellectual might. The NPA are perfectly cool with raping their God privately.

The American Carbon Mafia had very specific interests, they wanted to leverage access to Indian markets through this nuclear deal.

As the deal progressed in America, it became extremely clear that it was not possible to say with certainity who was exactly pushing this thing along. The overall impression about this was that America has almost no internal consensus on this matter.

The Left Front has always done whatever its international paymasters have asked it do. Their refusal to allow this deal to progress simply highlights that the US - who we know as their last known paymaster - is very confused about this nuclear deal that Bush has signed.

All people (myself included) suffer from pangs of belief that they are somehow more farsighted than the company they keep. In that sense the disreputable forum members are prone to believing that the sky is falling in India, and so they often place faith in the most extreme of statements but that is perfectly normal for people to do.

At 6:46 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Anonymous,

The attacks on Sri. Kakodkar, Sri. Chidambaram and Sri. Subrahmanynam are deplorable.

This is a reflection of how much the standard of discussion has declined in India.

At 6:55 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello Anonymous,

Perhaps I am just used to the way that things are done in these matters but I did not feel scared or jittery about the way Sri. Manmohan Singh handled the negotiators.

I think all fears about the process were generated by the NPA induced cross talk on key international communication channels.

Given the reason why these channels were designed by State Dept and CIA people in decades gone by, they proved particularly effective in distoring the Indian view of the events in Washington. Indian reaction was natural. What PM Manmohan Singh was doing was not easy, and the NPA did their best to stop him.

I do not comprehend why the NPA put so much effort into this. If they were keen to avoid a loss of funding, they seem to have blown an ungodly amount of money on stopping this. I do not understand how they are going to make back the money. Unless US industry picks up global competitiveness - there simply going to be no money to pay NPA salaries.

At 7:12 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi anonymous,

I have nothing to say about either the Dhiren Bhagat accident or the ISRO case, these are outside of my competency to comment on.

I think the Left is within its rights to do what it determines as expedient political strategy.

I am apolitical. I am merely evaluating its consequences to the overall situation.

The Left Front has gained political ascendancy. A closer relationship between India and China, as well as, Indian opposition to US moves in Iran are highly likely.

All the self-congratulatory crap from NPA's about "restoring nuclear sanity" etc... and the celebratory "No backdoor CTBT" chants need be tempered in my opinion with a sober appraisal of the fact that the Left does not want to test weapons and the Left will be keener to create a China-India nuclear deal that ensures no contracts go to any American companies at all.

At 7:18 AM, Blogger maverick said...


The Left Front is simly exercising its options in a climate of political opportunity.

Whatever negotiations and communications the Left has with other groups in India, cannot seriously be interpreted as arrangements that benifit anyone other than the Left Front itself.

Please realise the Left Front of today is not the Left Front of the days gone by.

With the repeated emphasis on the evils of disparity and the horrors of rampant capitalism, the Left has made inroads into the heart of India's middle class. The Left's focus on disparity issues via friendly media outlets could easily swing elections in dozens of constituencies.

Those of us who are Bombay, who know how the Left infiltrated trade unions and then stuck deals with the mill management to shut down sick units are exposed to the left's leadership style. The rest of India is still in the dark about these matters and a situation could arise where the Left's claim to leadership finds support in Indian masses.

If America is unprepared for a shift away from Carbon fuels, or a world where the NPT is a piece of toilet paper, then it is doubly-unprepared for an India that sides with China on every single thing.

At 2:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...


You have laid it out bare but the bunnies on the deplorable forum form an incorrigible DCH brigade. Even Uneven is saying that India will revert to testing if the deal fails. Let's see. I suspect that there will be no bum-shum test-west (hehe) at all.

In India maintaining status quo is considered progress and a step backwards is considered victory onlee.


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