Friday, March 18, 2016

Regime change draws closer in DPRK

Kim Jong Un - the Great is desperate to stamp out all opposition to his primacy in DPRK. The only problem is that there are dozens of people who are much better qualified for the Supreme Leader job.

With an eye on bolstering his image, he authorized a rapid march on nuclear explosive design and testing. Unfortunately - every test he conducted - the world didn't believe. As the world continually questioned his claims, he became more insecure with each test.

That of course prompted him to test some more and show off some more. After all, if the world questioned his claims about the tests - they could start questioning his claims about everything. He had no choice but to test.Which naturally in turn made people think he was more desperate. And the cycle continued.

This may seem like an endless loop.

It is not.

With each passing second, the DPRK leadership's faith in Kim Jong Un is being tested. Like the Sunni Baathist underlings of Saddam - the DPRK leadership is facing a hard choice. They must either stick with Kim Jong Un to the bitter end and end up butchered in that war that is coming, or they must switch sides and risk being slaughtered by Kim Jong Un if the UN suddenly develops cold feet.

With every test, the world simply shakes its head. No one actually believes that Kim Jong Un has what it really takes to make good on his threats. And so Kim has to think of something even more outrageous to show off.

A critical point of internally driven regime change is steadily being approached.

The most likely trajectory now is a Chinese backed coup in Pyongyang.

It is not in China's interest to see DPRK become a big enough problem to invite a UN military intervention. China knows that the DPRK Army  will dissolve with the same speed as the Iraqi army did in 2004.

When my grandchildren ask me - "When did World War III begin...?" - My answer will probably be, "It began with a tryant named Kim Jong Un"

2 Comments:

At 8:59 AM, Blogger maverick said...

After reviewing the photos that Kim put out, I feel the North Koreans are very keen to show that they are capable of producing advanced nuclear designs.

While it is not possible to really determine whether the photo depicts a boosted device or a simple fission device, it is possible to say that the North Koreans would like to be seen as people who can make devices with demanding electronics.

I think this says something about their real insecurities. I feel it illuminates their real shortcomings. Like the man who ceaselessly talks about the size of his hands, the North Koreans are really short somewhere else.

My guess is that they will be forced by circumstances to confront their shortcomings and this will lead them (independent of anything Kim's ego might do) to a path of increased testing.

With each test comes the risk of further proliferation and the risk of accidental or unintentional detonation.

The stakes become very high when you push so hard under so much scrutiny.

DPRK may emerge a true thermonuclear power - but it may come at the price of Kim Jong Un's head.

 
At 10:46 AM, Blogger maverick said...

And here we go...

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/1934185/north-korea-has-become-increasing-threat-china

 

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