Thursday, September 15, 2016

Demographics of the Trump voters

FWIW - I don't think anyone should be called deplorable - views are deplorable - people should be given every opportunity to change.

I bin Trump voters into the following categories (based on my own personal highly irregular and nonscientific sampling). The rough demographic percentages are knowable from the Pew center.

Older White Boomer Men - These people grew up in a culturally narrowed US in the 50s and 60s. They associate a lack/weakness of cultural identification as a critical component of nationalism. They are uncomfortable with a black man or a woman being president. These people never reconciled to the election of President Obama. These people do not subscribe to overt racism, it reminds them too much of the Nazi nonsense that their parents generation died fighting - but covert racial thoughts permeate the zeitgeist of this group. Most people in this group (including global superhero Clint Eastwood) don't recognize the dangers this kind of thinking poses. The primary concern these people have is that they are now completely dependent on government spending. In their old age, they have become just like the "unemployed lazy black person" they love to hate. Given how much debt the country has worked itself into - there will be no way for them to really collect any level of meaningful social security. The aging white boomer man is the ultimate Social Justice Warrior - they seek to receive social security and medicare into their last days - that is their definition of social justice and they are willing to fight for it. I don't know if Hillary can reach out to this group but if she did - it would be by making assurances on the continuation of entitlement spending.

Older White Boomer Women - This group has reached its social equilibrium with the challenges it came up against. These voters are pulled between the extreme views of Phyllis Schlafly  and Gloria Steinem. I see both the viewpoints as natural reactions to the manner in which the preceding generation (i.e. "Great Generation")  of women were treated by their male peers after the war. When they saw what happened to their mothers and grand-mothers - white boomer women split into two groups - one group went down the road of putting up a slavish pretense of compliance with male ego centrism (and in doing so expose its failures) and the other launched an open revolt against idiotic male ideas of society. A great fraction of Hillary Clinton's own actions (especially her obsessive secrecy) can be easily explained by her white female boomer pedigree. Like the caricature of Brie Van de Camp in Desperate Housewives - the white boomer woman is obsessed with the idea of visual perfection. These women are less concerned about decaying social security as (unlike their male counterparts) they actually know how to "make do with what they have". This IMHO represents Hillary's greatest political opportunity - if she can speak directly to this group - she will win by a landslide.

Early White Male GenXers - This category is driven purely by economic concerns. Their debt structure (partially inherited from their boomer forbears) is unsustainable. Caught in the vise-like jaws of globalization, and practically raped by Reagan era policies on trickle down economics - this group is financially challenged. They are not poor - but they are deeply in debt and their cash flows are insecure. They would like to see that be less so but given how much debt the US is carrying - there is no way to sop up their debt too as it is simply too large a number. This is a very vocal community - these are the bulk of the people who post on social media sites like Reddit. Most of these people know that there is little their community will really gain from Donald Trump economically. The only reason they support him is because they want to make a point - or a protest vote. People from this group also recognize that Donald Trump is a serial-liar because they spend all that time on the internet covering for him or supporting his lies. Tragically there is no way to reach out to this group. There is no package that Hillary could offer them to switch loyalties. No one can help them - not Hillary or Donald Trump.

Bold Font Readers - This is a group that imo defies clear social labeling. Their only common feature is that they usually don't read the fine print in anything. These people are supporting Donald Trump because they haven't bothered to look up the details about his business style. Once they realize how he typically operates they will be quite dissatisfied with him. Hillary could try to educate these people and that will switch their loyalties.

The New Carpetbaggers - This is a group of political opportunists that has decided to jump on the Donald Trump bandwagon as they think it is their route to fame and fortune. Again these people tend not to read the fine print, but they are so desperate (kind of like Taco Truck Guy or Ann Coulter or Sarah Palin) so they are using the Donald Trump platform to surf their way to personal financial success. In Hindi - I would call this group the - "Main Bhi Trump" (I am Trump too) category. Again there is nothing anyone can do about these people. They exist in every campaign.


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