Tuesday, May 15, 2007

The India US nuclear deal: an incipient conflict


There is a total mismatch between what the Indians want and the Americans want from the deal. I am not talking about the long term aspects of the deal - I am talking about what the people want right now.

The Americans want the Indians to pretend that something is being done towards clearing the hurdles for the deal, even if nothing is really being done. This is a face saving measure to ensure that the Bush Administration does not lose its standing among the captains of American industry. Unlike other face saving measures to appease the NPA jihadis or the NSG riff-raff like the low countries of Europe etc... this is a real credibility problem. Please try to understand that no one gives a hoot if some some two bit European bureaucrat or NPA webmaster feels slighted by President Bush's gesture towards India, those people count for nothing. But if President Bush appears to be unable to make India receptive to the idea of imports from American industry - then he loses face among the only people that matter in the US. The Americans want the appearance of "progress" to keep face with the Industrialists.

The Indian Government on the other hand cannot be seen to bend even a micron at this stage. The political mood on the Indian side says that it is best to openly say nothing is being done, especially if nothing is being done... There are all manner of political pressure points on GoI and the Prime Minister right now, his ability to indulge in amateur political theatrics so popular with the American public is next to nil. What applies to the PM applies twice as much to his men on the ground. I know it doesn't seem that way, but GoI has its back the wall, and we can't be seen to make any concessions at this point. It is quite simply political suicide and the PM is not in the habit of drivelling, so don't suddenly expect him to start something like that for the benifit of the US public.

The NPA as you all know have literally laughed their way to the bank on this deal. They first took money from every Bush hater, Pakistani and Chinese handmaiden they could find and created that god-awful mess in the Congress. Now they are going to garner support from the very same industrial houses that initially supported the deal in Congress by promising the industrialists that "getting tough" on India is the way to get India to open its nuclear markets.
This allows the NPA to keep spouting out the same anti-India bullshit. In the long run this sea of bullshit from them is going to drown everyone including the NPA themselves, and they know it, but you are never going to get people like Kimball, Krepon etc... to admit to that.

A way has to be found to navigate this conflict.

A step in the right direction is recognise the reality of the situation and adjust expectations accordingly.


At 8:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

kindly wait before you write out another piece. there is sufficient info in one thread itself that can be debated over many pages. Someone should buy you a forum.

At 7:57 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Sorry Anonymous,

Too much work to be done before the visit.

I have to get stuff out there.



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