Maverick's World

Lal Masjid: I fear a "Shia Holocaust" is in the works

After the Lal Masjid confrontation and the assasination of Maulana Ghazi and the ritual humiliation of the Deobandi clergy by the Pakistan Army here is an unfathomable sense of anger in the radicalised population of Pakistan. A majority of this population is Sunni and a number of the tanzeems have a long history of sectarian violence. Some experts even suggests that a number of the Pakistani Islamic tanzeems were originally concieved as ideological defense mechanisms against Shia radicalism emanating from Iran.

The ground is very fertile here.

For centuries now, the regime in Iran has acted as the protector of the Shia. The present Islamic revolutionary regime has been at the forefront projecting power on behalf of minority Shia all over the world. In a world where nuclear potency is regarded as a demonstration of international relevance, a predominantly Sunni Pakistan possessing a nuclear bomb has caused concern in Shia Iran. The concern that Sunni Pakistan may be sharing nuclear weapons knowledge with Saudi Arabia, Iran's ideological adversary in the Middle East, is cause for alarm in Iran. An atmosphere of relentless confrontation with Saudi Arabia's ally, the United States of America, does not help Iranian comfort levels either.

An undesirable change from the US point of view, in the Iranian nuclear status is not impossible and if such a change does occur the US will have no choice but to move against Iran. If the US moves against the revolutionary regime in Iran, at least until a new power center emerges and establishes itself agains the US, the Shia the world over will have no protector.

Needless to say that in places like Pakistan, the radicalised population will express their dissatisfaction with an American takeover of Iran and most of their anger will be directed at the Pakistani Army which is propped up as Pakistan's ruling class by American support.

In a bid to save themselves, the Pakistani Army is likely to deliberately sow the seeds of sectarian violence. This will in turn deflect mainstream Sunni anger on to the Shia population. In the face of heavily organised radicalism, and lacking institutional protective support from a regime in Iran, the Shia will stand no chance. They will be decimated.

Like the Jews of Europe in the 30s and 40s, the Shia will be a lost cause, an unanticipated consequence, an unwitting victim of global machtpolitik.

posted by maverick @ 7:33 AM