Sunday, October 21, 2007

India US Nuclear Deal: A Provocation Strategy

The NPA have consistently opposed the India-US nuclear deal.

Most of this opposition comes from the fact that India sees through the NPA. We don't buy their BS about being serious about non-proliferation agendas. We do not buy into their rubbish about the NPT, we do not think very much about their CTBT. Whenever possible we routinely mock them and their lack of intellectual rigor.

India's perception of the NPA does not extend to "Americans" in general and its relationship with the rest of America is driven a completely different set of interactions which are mostly positive and despite innumerable occasions for misunderstandings, India's relationship with the US is bereft of overt hostility.

In such an atmosphere, bereft of overt hostility, the NPA have it rough. They can't force their fellow countrymen to share their distaste of India. Most Americans are indifferent to India, or have a vaguely positive opinion of it. This makes the NPA feel ... threatened.

As the discussions of the India-US nuclear deal gained ground - the NPA threat radars began to sing loudly. Without an India to berate and rail against publicly, NPA sermons seemed to lose their sense of purpose. Without powerful sermons, who would take the NPA seriously? NPA fears crystalised when the Bush Administration began reorganising the State Department Non-Proliferation Bureau and the NPA fought back.

However the NPA with their deep knowledge of "Nuclear Missiles" and "Megaton Warheads", seemed to be increasingly out of place to deal with current proliferation scenarios. India's enthusiastic participation in the PSI and other counter-proliferation initiatives seemed to have won India many new friends in Washington D.C. Under these circumstances, the NPA did the best they could. They tried to get everyone to see that the PSLV could become an ICBM and the GLSV could be used to do something really dangerous ... no one bought it. The idea was so absurd, that even the people in Congress who are very easily swayed by NPA sermons, found the idea hard to swallow.

Having failed in the US to generate the basis for an overt hostility with India, I feel the NPA may have turned to their friends in the Indian Left front.

The Left Front as a whole suffers from a reflexive sense of hostility towards all things American. However a small segment of people inside the Left Front had pragmatically built bridges to the US, after the USSR fell. These people embedded themselves into the NPA led initiatives after 1998 to make the Indian nuclear tests look bad.

The rest of the Left Front had a vested interest in this, the nuclear tests of 1998 gave the BJP a kind of political insurance policy. No one would turn to them and say... that they were ineffective on the national stage. The Left by contrast felt more than little useless as the liberalisation of the Indian economy in the early 90s had led to the public erosion of the Left's cherished ideals. As time progressed the money poured into the Left via NPA enhanced American sources grew in size and the Left invested in an outreach programme where it made inroads into sections of Indian society still recieve the trickle down benifits from the growth in Indian economy. The Left also made strong efforts to court Muslims and other groups that felt alienated by the BJP government. In this way the Left was able to leverage its monetary earnings through US sources into a political poise in the Indian Parliament, despite the fact not a single industry or business inside India was keen to see the Left remain in any form of fray.

Ultimately when the Indo US nuclear deal emerged in the public. The Left was in a quandary. If the US emerged as the sole source of Uranium supplies to India, this would leave the Left Front strongholds in West Bengal and Kerala vulernable to pressures from US Uranium suppliers. Also the rise in trade with the US would mean that the Left Front's political stock inside India - based as it was on anti-capitalist rhetoric and slum lording in areas where they had themselves induced developmental stagnation - would drop like a rock. The Left would be seen as an archaic entity, an anachronism and the economies of places like West Bengal would be left in the dust. The Left also surmised that the deal would most likely involve some form of cooperation against China and Iran and probably involve some additional guarentees that would assuage American concerns about India's nuclear weapons. All these thing would make the Left irrelevant as a political force in India. The Left as a whole had thus a very serious sense of hostility towards the India-US nuclear deal.

The small segment of the Left Front that engaged the NPA in 1998 suddenly emerged as a communication channel of renewed importance.

The NPA for their part were keen on provoking what they felt was a manageable sense of hostility between India and the US. From that perspective, it seems irrelevant where the hostility originated - so long as it was manageable. The Left Front as a whole in India, seemed to fit that bill well ... that is if one assumes that the small group of collaborators between the NPA and the Left Front can function as a reliable communication mechanism.

In a simple scenario from the NPA perspective, the Left Front will simply make hollow, anti-US statements on the Indian political stage and add delays to the deal. The delays will spark the legendary American impatience and a sense of hostility will develop between India and the US. In their anger, US corporations keen to open business opportunities in India will pay the NPA to spout anti-India garbage that soothes their ears.

For contrast, another extreme scenario is where the Left Front realises that it is being lured into a trap by its NPA allies, and goes off script. The small group of collaborators between the NPA and the Left Front becomes ineffective. In the event that the Left Front as a whole proves to be difficult to control, the situation will quickly spiral into overt hostilities between India and the US, ex. denial of bases, India supports Iran etc...

As the NPA surely know, the Left Front's commitment to nuclear non-proliferation is about as serious as the NPA's commitment to disarmament. In the event that the Left is provoked on the nuclear front, they will respond in an overtly aggressive fashion, perhaps test a few missiles or pull some other vintage DPRK style stuff! This kind of behaviour will encourage a deeper atmosphere of hostility between the US and India. An atmosphere of hostility where free trade between India and the US is frustrated, and the language of missiles and megatons suddenly becomes en vogue.

Either ways a win-win situation for the NPA.

Or so it seems...

Unfortunately, such a calculation is flawed because of the precarious situation of the dollar and the rising cost of oil. The underlying motivation behind the India-US nuclear deal at the US end was *not* some imaginary gain in non-proliferation - it was instead to create a stable investment environment for US capital groups in India, so that the cost of America's transition from oil to nuclear power could be defrayed through investments in a highly productive economy. By operationalising this kind of provocation strategy with regards to India at this time, the door to such investments has closed. The NPA have frustrated their nation's transition away from oil. This may be something they can take their friends with deep pockets in the American carbon mafia as a sign of the success of funding the NPA, however it now increases the need in American foreign policy to stabilise the global carbon fuels market. This only increases the pressures on the dollar.

One must carefully weigh the costs and benifits of such a situation.

141 Comments:

At 9:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hi m,
1)It looks as if so many extraneous conditions have been added by the USA to the deal that it may as well implode in N.Delhi. Left opposition to the N.deal is nice way of letting pressure off from the pressure cooker.

2)This talk of NPA-Left marriage may have been cleared by the Delhi to give a nice coverup for who knows what.
3)This oppostion to the deal will ensure a better deal for us

 
At 6:30 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Anonymous,

I think there are two issues here:

1) there is "real" opposition to the deal in India due to concerns about what the deal implies for India.

2) the "outsourced" opposition to the deal in India due to dissatisfaction with the manner in which the deal was negotiated in the US.

We need to distinguish between the two.

What is the root of the Karat-Bardhan combines' opposition?

Is it:

1) a genuine caring for the people of India and their rights as a soverign nation?

2) a deep desire to engage the Chinese?

3) an urge to reach out to anti-deal muslims?

4) a NPA sponsorred proxy hit?

5) a sponsorred hit from other carbon energy groups - say in the Middle East?

Before one rushes to form any opinions about this, one must in detail follow the positions of the Left front on these issues.

Without a careful study of these issues we cannot make statements like "it will ensure a better deal for us".

The deal imploding in New Delhi will create severe trust issues in several capitals across the world.

It cannot be said that this is necessarily in the best interests of India.

 
At 7:19 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi folks:

I think one of the biggest mistakes the NPA have made is to confuse the Indian left as being similar to the Euro/Western left.

I think the Indian Left deliberately cultivated this misunderstanding. Our folk, lefties or not, are still Yindoo cunning oriented.

By the time the NPA's figure the one-to-one mapping between the Indian Left and the Euro/Western left doesn't hold . . . well . . . if they think Vietnam was bad yesterday and Iraq is bad today, wait till they face the Indo-China-Russia-Iran combine tomorrow.

I don't think the NPA's have the slightest understanding of what's going to happen to Indo-Chinese relations after the current Dalai Lama reincarnates - especially given the "tactical brilliance" of the Pakees recently.

The NPA's should ask the Israelis what happened after Arafat died to Indo-Israeli ties.

Admittedly, Indo-Chinese ties while the Dalai Lama is alive are not as deep as Indo-Israeli ones while Arafat was alive, but if that consoles the NPA's perhaps they ought to reflect on the difference between Israel and China and the economic differences, at the same stage, between Indo-Israeli and Indo-Chinese ties.

But I doubt they're that smart. And by the time they figure it out it'll be to late.

Wrll, c'est la vie.

Re the DF:

I am unbelievably pained to have to agree with the comments made about the forum on the previous two posts on the nuclear deal by Maverick.

I'm absolutely astonished and just flabbergasted at what happened there.

It seems to have devolved into a rather weird Indian copy of some some RAPE forum. The attacks on the SciCom are simply unbelievable.

I went through it rather carefully and through the archives. I emailed friends who sent me back threads that I missed.

All I can say is that I'm simply embarrassed to have once been associated with the place. :(

What in Gods name happened to the forum? Some of the rubbish posted there . . . and by admins!!!! . . . and no moderation to speak of on other threads - bat crazy religious hatred against Xtians and Muslims everywhere??? It's simply catastrophic!

Gods, what a terrible loss! :(

Sigh, This is what happens when physicists leave a bunch of engineers to themselves isn't it?

SS: It's good to see that the dulcet tones of my former editor are still available of the 'Net. :)

kg.

 
At 8:04 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Kg,

welcome aboard!

I deeply sympathise with those who suffer misunderstandings due to the unusually fast pace of events but the overt attacks on Sci-Comm leave me with no choice dissociate myself from the forum in every way.

I am utterly perplexed by BK's behaviour.

The current theory in certain circles is that the Left is fronting for the PRC's interests. I do not know if this is true or if it is merely a case of people extrapolating from the Left Front's behaviour during 1962.

I don't know if anyone has analysed the full extent of the Left's contacts with NPA in the last decade. I suspect that if a full dossier is assembled of these contacts, a somewhat unsettling picture may emerge.

Though much is being made about it, Sri. Jain at NPCIL is merely reminding everyone that there will be a near term shortage of fuel.

In the longer term, expanded investments in U-mining and a strong interest - not swayed by court cases by NPA inspired environmentalists, will ensure immunity from shortages.

 
At 9:23 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

Another thing that people seem to be mixing up.

The projected share of nuclear energy in India is computed from present estimates of utilisability of carbon energy resources. In that sense we see numbers which say nuclear will only ever amount to an X percent share of the total power generated etc...

In reality no firm statements can be made about the utilisability of carbon resources. If something happens that changes the utilisability of carbon sources we could have a 10x contribution from nuclear.

Yes Uranium mining was scaled back in the 90s, but why was that done? What was the price of oil then? $2 a barrel? Is so surprising that this was done?

 
At 10:56 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

mav,

Is there any indication that we have ramped up the mining of uranium in the last 2-3 years when price of oil sky rocketed?
I did not come across any news item. And it is slightly worrying.
================
accidentally bumped into your blog and I am happy that you are still active on the net after your disappearance from the DF.

Lots of archieves to go through :-)

Regards,
V

 
At 1:01 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi V,

We can't massively ramp up production in just a few years. We need atleast a decade of sustained effort.

UCIL has been conducting surveys in various parts of the country and in the last five years new deposits have been identified.

However all efforts to aggressively exploit these deposits have been met with resistance from NPA inspired enviromental groups.

It was recognised as early as 2002, that there could be a shortfall in local Uranium production. That is why the engagement with the US was pursued.

It appears that the US has decided to get pull the funding from some of these environmental groups for the moment. How long this cooperative phase will last I do not know...

I expect that the Left leaning groups which seem to have a presence inside these environmental organisations feel a bit neglected as there is not as much US moolah flowing in.

 
At 8:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hi m,
1)why do you think Muslims are against this deal? There may be a group who says so. But largely there has so much of misinformation about the deal that any ordinary citizen has come out opposing this deal.
2)This atmosphere of confrontation has been delibrately cultivated by the powers to be in N.Delhi. Kindly read Yashwant sinha's interview in newsinsight.net. He talks how our respectable,hounourable ..... provoked a confrontation with the parliament. If you look at the bonhomie between PVNR & ABV , it was amazing. While ABV was the opposition leader, PVNR asked him to lead a delegation when to UN when BB took kashmir to UN.
And now LKA accusses MMS of being a CIA agent in the parliament!!!
3)MMS has lot all respectability when he accepted the post of PM with the strings handed over to SG.
No one ever trusts the PM that he can deliver a good deal to us.
I do not know what your reaction will be as you do not like any statements made against our respected politicians.But farcas could have been avoided. Even then I am convinced that Left front is acting for the best interests of the country.

 
At 8:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hi m,
i regret for having made the first post & the previous one. Kindly delete it.

 
At 7:28 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Anonymous,

Actually those are good questions.

Muslim leaders in India (though they do no overtly oppose the US) are of the view that the US does not have a good reputation. They feel that the US harbours hostile intentions under the guise of promoting democracy. They cite the US' behaviour in the Middle East of this kind of thing. They appear quite convinced of this, and given the way this appear in Iraq and other places, it is impossible to dispute some of their conclusions.

No party in India (despite what far right groups may want to believe) can ignore this sentiment. It is electorally explosive.

Our desire to engage the US is part of a wider initiative to manage the environmental costs of our economic growth. We are not interested in all the other stuff the US does nor does our economic partnership imply endorsement of everything that the US does. This fact needs to be conveyed to India's muslims through dialogue.

And why just India's muslims, everyone who is concerned about this should have this explained to them.

I am not bothered by the BJP and the Congress(I)s verbal sparring in the Parliament. The BJP has accepted the responsibiliy of engaging right-wing sentiments in the country, the Congress(I) is portraying itself as a centrist party. The verbal confrontation is an excellent way of venting any pent up steam in either faction within the country. The Left has chosen to engaged sections of society which have yet to recieve the trickle down from the economic boom. This is fine too and I have no problems with the Left joining the vituperative stream of politics.

What I am concerned about is the lack of communication from the Left about what exactly promoted their rejection of the deal. There is a segment of the Left that is deeply connected to grass roots issues affecting Indians in their everyday lives. However there is also a segment of the Left which is completely hostage to inflow of foreign funds.

At the present time it is unclear to me who in the Left is pushing this.

I was under the impression that CPI led governments in WB and Kerala had endorsed an expansion India's nuclear power generation capacity. Kerala esp. stood to gain the most in the long term given its thorium reserves. WB - sitting as it did at the head of roads leading to many of India's uranium deposits - also stood to gain quite a bit in the near term.

However it appears as if the CPI leadership in New Delhi is guided by other considerations. Given that this very leadership had expressed antipathy towards the tests in 1998, their desire to suddenly reject the deal on account of the restrictions it may place on India testing nuclear weapons, simply does not make sense.

There is some other motivation. We need to understand what that is.

I suspect that the NPA have misused communication channels set up by the State Department and the CIA to create this opposition via proxies the Left Front. From the perspective of India-US relations, this kind of thing can be described as "miscommunication" or "cross-talk".

And corrective measures need to be taken at the US end.

Until I understand what that exact motivation is, I cannot say that the Left Front leadership is acting in the best interests of the country.

If the Left desires to replace the India-US deal with an India-China deal, I do not have any problems with that. I welcome more trade with China.

I stress however that this will imply a severe delay in Uranium imports. The entire process of negotiation will have to repeated with China.

Arrangement should be made to protect against the effects of near term shortages.

Also the Left should do everything that needs to be done to promote increased domestic uranium production.

 
At 8:36 AM, Anonymous s.venkat said...

There are many christian evangelical groups undermining india.Even the Catholic Church is hostile.

Many jehadi groups are active.

Yet some have an ostrich like attitude.

 
At 9:15 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maverick, thank you for the welcome. Looking forward to being here.

I spent the last couple of days trying to think through your question about the left. Here's a rough outline with what I came up with:

We need to differentiate between the Communists in power and the general left. This is the difference between attack dogs and show ponies, to use an analogy you once used to differentiate between American opinion makers and American decision makers.

The opinion makers babble on endlessly about democracy etc. The attack dogs create Latin American death squads, Vietnams, Iraqs, and secret torture chambers.

The general left, aka "fellow travellers" once upon a time, are the ones we hear most of. They're the opinion makers, Bidwai, Roy etc.

The decision makers are entirely different. They're the lot who'll order a bunch of peasants shot who refuse to hand over land they've worked and made productive to a large business conglomerate.

This is, I think where the confusion lies. For some time, the key decision makers were not against the deal, and some even seemed to be more than willing to acquiese quietly. The opinion makers, without a standard platform to argue from, were all over the place. Some were against it, like Bidwai, some for it etc and most were quiet, if a little uncomfortable.

I'm fairly sure that the NPA/US channel to the Left was within the opinion making segment, *not* the decision making segment. (This is not something new for the left. They've always maintained a certain level of opacity, as all communist parties in non-commie countries did as a matter of course, so that the leadership could survive and rebuild if the Party was targeted.)

Then something blew up.

This is the bit I don't get. I don't buy the PRC interests line. Not from the *decision makers* segment.

Similarly, I can't see that lot being manipulated for any length of time by a bunch of western NPA types. See, even if the NPA's had misused the back channels, the Congress wouldn't have backed down but would have insisted the US end sort things out quickly.

Sure, some amongst the opinion makers may be pro PRC and a heck of a lot mysteriously get "scholarships" to US universities and "think-tanks", etc, but the top decision making lots first instinct is preservation of the Party.

The second thing that's a bit mysterious is the Congress change. For some reason, the Congress suddenly appeared to be absolutely confident about taking on the Left, the muslim/Iran lobby and the BJP simultaneously. It was bizarre. The talk was all about Dada delivering in Bengal, Pawar delivering the rural vote and what not. This wasn't just bravado by MMS. They *were* serious at the time.

Then just as suddenly it all changed. Just as mysterious as the other two things.

It was as if Dara Singh came out to smack some unruly kids in front of his house and then suddenly bolted for cover instead.

Note: I am not talking here about the intricasies of the deal *or* about the tech, *or* about the national security implications.

This is about pure power politics. Something disconcertingly big seems to have happened and no one, certainly not our mindless DDM, seems to be bothered about it.

And I would suggest we need to understand all these three events to understand what the Left is on about and what's actually happening in Dilli.

kg.

 
At 10:50 AM, Anonymous s.venkat said...

After karunanidhi's outburst against sri rama,did the congress realise the problem of entrenched anti-national sentiments in sections of our society,masquerading as secular,backward etc

 
At 11:40 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi kg,

I think the turnaround by the UPA leadership may have had to do with the fact that the Left had been taking a lionshare of everything that was coming through the pipes.

My guess is that no one had tallied up how much political capital the Left had collected to date.

When the govt. said elections, all the groups did the numbers and found out that they did not have enough to make it in three cornered fight.

I think your classification system is correct.

I suspect the miscommunication may have sparked suspicions in the decision makers.

I mean think about it, lets say I am Prafool Bidwai. Seven thousand copies of my crappy book were bought by major US insitutions after 1998 and I have railed against the "Hindu Bomb" and for each lecture I give I get 10 bucks.

Now I am invited to some seminar in the US where a NPA gets on the pulpit and gives a fire and brimstone speech about the India-US nuclear deal. At the seminar the Bush Admin representative ends up sounding weak and slow by comparison to the rapid fire-high volume shouting of the NPA and their mureeds. Everywhere I look I find NP Jihadis and their mureeds waving virtual Ak47s.. shouting about an NP Jihad ...so what do I do?

Do I go to my Chairman and tell him, "Boss the Americans are in two minds about this deal! It doesn't matter what the Bush people are telling MMS, ... there is no internal political consensus in the US!"

Or do I go down to the local bar and pretend I was never at the seminar in the first place?

My guess is that in this peculiar circumstance, I actually go to my friends in the various departments at some reputable US university, say the South Asia Dept, or the International Studies department and I ask some professor or major reseacher what is going on.. probably talk to a Krepon, or a Sokolski or a Schaffer. And what do I hear from them?

Well the Krepon tells me "pakistan will never agree to this" (he should know...), the Sokolski tells me ..."Yeah this is something republicans like me can't understand about Bush"(implication... Bush is alienating his own partymen?) and the Schaffer tells me..."Iran is the big enemy.. even bigger than Al Qaeeda.." (suggesting nuclear trade--F-ck Iran is a package deal).. I walk around a few booze bashes in DC and I get the idea that this deal is about f*cking China too..

So in that case I most likely go back to my brave chairman and tell him that this deal has all kinds of weird agendas clinging to it and it looks really bizarre on the US side.

Naturally the Chairman becomes suspicious.

In this fashion the situation boils up into an unreachable place.

 
At 11:50 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi kg,

Contd (I hit the publish button too soon).

I think you diagnosis of the situation is correct.

The decision makers had already cleared the land for the plant, so I think they will wait a little while and allow the general left to sort things out.

At some point the decision makers will push the "oh just deal with it"-button.

and then this crisis will wind down.

I am not sure where or when that will be.

The Left sudden shift on the matter has expanded the air time available for anti-deal people.

I saw PR Chari give a rather long interview at one point where it said something to the effect that the "July 18th Agreement drove a horse and cart through the NPT.." or something like that.

That triggered my suspicions that the NPA had been appropriating older communication channels.

BTW... what do you feel about my idea that the Carbon-fuels-old-money types in the US are most likely at the core of the opposition to the US-India nuclear deal?

I was watching Bob Murray before the Senate panel.. wow.. talk about being upset with a shift in the energy utilisation pattern.
Recently I have been seeing a number of the carbon energy types talking about improvement in efficiencies of newer coal fired TPPs. Why this was not possible a decade ago.. one wonders.

 
At 8:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hi kg,
welcome aboard. Your insights are very valuable! Eons back had made the mistake of crossing swords with you on the disreputable forum.
Apologies for that.

 
At 10:42 PM, Anonymous kg said...

Hi Maverick:

It's certainly possible.

Thing is, the Carbon-fuels-old-money types may be opposed to any increase in nuke power, but they won their great victories a long time back.

The key to understanding the failure of the US to build more power plants is in understanding what the Carbon-fuel types did during the 70s/80s when they discretely funded a fair whack of the nuke opposition.

And what they achieved was a series of interlocking, *international* regulations that make building new nuke power stations prohibitively and ridiculously expensive.

This is something most folk don't realise. We can read reams and reams of reports on how building a nuke power station is extremely capital expensive, (in *time* as well as money), at the building stage, without anyone pointing out that the initial capital front-loading is because of the deliberately imposed governmental and international regulatory framework and the business insurance and re-insurrance issues that make it so expensive.

The Carbon types won that battle a long time back.

Many of those activists and those anti-nuke networks didn't just disappear. They morphed into University academic types, greenies, and a whole host of anti-globalisation, anti-this and anti-that orgs and NGOs that cultivated new generations of well meaning university educated kids into their world view.

I don't think, that the Carbon money types began the opposition to the nuke deal. I think those activist networks (which is NPA riddled) simply went back to old friends for funding and found them willing to help.

IMO, I'd say that the push against the deal from within the US isn't coming from these folks. The leadership is elsewhere. But they're certainly sources of funding.

I think that one strong contender for the real opposition are those people on the US side who understand that there has been *no* new fuel source since the first nuke station went live half a century back.

But now there's thorium.

And we not only have it, but unlike the vapid societies of the Hydrocarbon rich countries, we actually know what to do about it.

Worse, we've shown an astonishing multi-decade long commitment to actualising thorium which our energy base makes financially viable for us, which it doesn't for the Russians and US.

It's possible that we're seriously underestimating the degree of uneasyness the thorium route is creating in all sorts of places.

There's another point worth thinking about:

A lot of folk see the nuke-deal as the Indo-US equivalent of IG's Indo-Soviet Peace and Friendship Treaty. As with that deal, when it was signed there were rumours all over the place that the Treaty included a "secret codicil" on defense.

No amount of denial ever dispelled that one. ('Course, the 71 break up of Pakistan and the Soviet help didn't help either). But the thing is, there are similar rumours doing the rounds now.

That the nuke-deal includes secret codicils, or as we say these days "an Understanding". We don't know what the "Understanding" is about, if there is one.

It could be Pakistan, it could be about Iran or China, or, *most dangerous* of all, it could be an "Understanding" with regards to the "rights" of US capital in India.

(I discount the "Capital" theory, because the US side would have, without a second thought and barely pausing for breath, casually shot the entire NPA brigade first if there was the slightest hint they were damaging US capitals interests.

The Lefts behaviour may indicate that they got wind of something like this, or were *deliberately* fed information/disinformation to make them think this, and went ape over it.

Hi Anonymous:

Not to worry. Crossing swords and robust arguments is how we all learn of each other. :-)

kg.

 
At 11:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The bizzaro Konshpirassi theory that's being peddled by some DFites is that Manmohan "Kaur" and the Rajmatha Sphinx have secretly sold us out to the old-money, Judeo-Christian combine(with their grand plan to establish supremacy the ME and Asia.) :)

Creepy thing is, they imply they were only recently privy to some inside info (which cannot be made public) that reveals the true nature of the deal. Of course nobody brings up the discredited 1971-deal-Soviet-sellout brouhaha up.

Sorry about wining about the DF here. It's just that I'm pained to see that place I loved so much go to the dogs.

 
At 12:17 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Since you are talking about spreading disinformation - here is an old set of articles from Geroge Iype on rediff (from Nov 2000). It is old but I think the entire 5 part series is a classic example of how to selectively use data, spread venom based on hearsay, slander our sci-com, muddle up multiple issues, drag unrelated people into the issue, types of NGOs with strange names headed by strange people etc. etc.

Part 1 - A failure on all fronts!'

Make sure you read all 5 parts. Also makes interesting reading 7 years later with hindsight.

Here is an excerpt from Part 4

In Kanyakumari district, the Social Action Movement carries out awareness campaigns. D Mathias of SAM and Reverend Y David of the Samathuva Samuthaya Iyakkam, loosely translated as Social Equality Movement, have been educating the public about the dangers of nuclear power projects since 1988.

The Palmyrah Workers' Development Society of Dr Samuel Amirtham and the Peace Association for Social Action of Dr Gnana Robinson are two other organisations that are in the fight. "It is the general trend of our times that people ignore warnings but feel sorry and make amends when disasters strike," comments Dr S Thasan, a retired Tamil professor of Marthandam Christian College.
The credit for whipping up a people's movement against the controversial Kudankulam project should go to S P Udayakumar. He is a research associate and co-director of programs at the Institute on Race and Poverty, University of Minnesota.

 
At 3:12 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maverick

Sorry to be OT, but is there anyway to get hold of this archive in full

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewtopic.php?t=3435&postdays=0&postorder=asc&&start=0

Tried earlier but no luck yet so far.

If anyone can help out, most obliged.

 
At 3:13 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

sorry should have been
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewtopic.php?t=
3435&postdays=0&postorder=asc&&start=0

 
At 6:49 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Kg,

What you say makes total sense.

That is biggest problem with these groups, one can never truly understand what they are saying because of the disconnect between their wallets, their brains and their mouths.

If one hears the NPA speeches one comes away with the distinct impression that they want Carbon energy to be used instead of nuclear energy.

For example, George Perkovitch made statements about the IPI being a far more viable solution to India's needs than this proposed nuclear deal. This was echoed by others on TV as well - mostly from the Left in India.

GPs enthusiasm for natural gas is shared by others in the US. A recent CFR report, say Oil *not* Natural Gas, will be a major problem. The CFR report is apparently convinved that natural gas dependence is not a problem for the US.

You may recall the enthusiasm our visitor from Langley at the disreputable forum expressed for having US ships liquify flaring gas on rigs in South Pars field and then ship them to India? Do you remember the joy in some sectors at the announcement of a proposal to build a large natural gas storage system in India along the coast?

I think the Natural Gas Old Money is approaching this from a different agenda compared to the Coal and Oil old money folks. The Coal guys in the US are pushing for a divorce with oil, and suggesting that CTL or Coal-to-Gas be pursued to achieve insulation from the oil market. Another lobby that is sheltering under the Carbon label is the corn-to-oil (E85/Ethanol) lobby, this group wants to see oil replaced in the transport sector by E85. I can put names to the companies leading each of these things but that is largely pointless.

The oil guys are the ones in the biggest pickle. I think they simply want to reinvest in other things before the crash comes. The NPA are a way for the them to slow the pace until their investments elsewhere becomes stable.

 
At 8:11 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Kg,

Here are some more thoughts.

Lets say that there is a Brain that coordinates the attack dogs, the show ponies and the money bags.

As long as that is case, the attack dogs, the show ponies and the money bags act in concert - the risks are managed and capital interests protected.

If for some reason the three folks above don't act in concert, then we are faced with the possibility that the risks are not managed and the capital interests become vulnerable - right?

So we observe a situation where this seems to be happening, what are the likely causes?

Lets say the show ponies are working out sync with the attack dogs. Is that because the Brain wants them to do it that way? or it it because there is brain tumor that is causing the Brain to malfunction?

Also lets say for the moment that somehow despite the risks posed to the Capital resources, the Brain does not seem to be doing something. Is this because the Brain knows there is no risk or is it because the Brain is malfunctioning?

How does one distinguish between the two situations i.e. where the Brain is deliberately doing nothing and where the Brain is severely malfunctioning?

 
At 5:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

someone sent me this link ... so this is where SS and Kg hang out ... cool ... I will absorb all this and hope to contribute ...

a quick comment ... all these estimates of nuke energy is X% and will only grow to Y% are laughable ... completely clueless DDM types are writing this stuff with authority ...

as someone said, "throw deep young man" ...

Alok_N

 
At 7:50 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Alok,

Good to see you here. Just arrived myself. And yeah, I agree that the figures getting thrown around are rubbish.

Maverick:

Yes, the natural gas thing is big. The phrase "this is the century of gas" has been spread around quite a bit.

And yes, I remember our old friends insistence (outright demand/command nearly) that we should concentrate on ships for transportation not pipelines.

The whole corn/ethanol thing is a complete mystery to me. If they do that on any serious scale, it'll impact on land availability for crops which will mean a huge increase in food prices will feed into inflation.

Don't know much about that.

It's interesting to speculate about a disconnect between the decision makers, opinion makers and the "brains".

One of the interesting things is that there's a feed back loop between the decision makers and opinion makers. It's not simply a case of following orders.

It's true enough that the major opinion makers fall into line as over Iraq, but there's a very sophisticated feed back loop from the opinion makers to the decision and policy makers.

These days, I pay my bills by working directly in the energy field. As far as I can see there's a great degree of genuine interest in nuke power. And some really big money getting ready to flow that way.

That's not the type of thing that can be easily derailed.

I really find the whole left/NPA thing to be quite mysterious.

You're right about one thing though - some serious capital and/or politics *is* backing the NPAs. They simply couldn't get the run they've got otherwise.

With the left I tend to favour the whole "secret codicil/Understanding" thing being the driver.

I think they need assurances from the GoI about that, and they're not getting it to satisfy them.

It's possible the BJP has the same attitude, at least going by what Brajesh said in his latest interview - that if the BJP was satisfied about certain issues, (he specifically mentioned the weapons complex as one), which the govt has kept them in the dark about, he'd support the deal.

Given that the Left is part of the govt and the BJP was kept informed of things, the only thing to conclude is that they're worried about things outside the nitty-gritty of the deal itself - which brings us back to the whole "secret codicil/Understanding" thing.

Re BK: I remember saying on the DF a long time back, during the "vailidity of the Pok 2 tests" discussions, that BK's articles gave away the fact that the dude was essentially clueless about the tech and badly behind on the science.

That makes his critiques suspect. Now he's devolved to saying, through third persons, that "only he understands" how to negotiate with the Americans.

I mean good grief! He's fast becoming the Arundhati Roy of the right - no actual grasp of the issues but willing to pontificate on everything under the sun with the absolute certainty of his own righteousness.

Why in gawds name yindoos take every loudmouth, left or right, with pretensions to being an "intellectual" so seriously is a mystery utterly beyond me!

kg.

 
At 8:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi guys,
Good to see the brains of DF here!
AN,
KG,
Maverick
can anyone rope in YIP?

 
At 6:44 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Alok_N,

Welcome aboard.

Hi Kg,

The Ethanol thing is being driven by the company that was "formally known as XXX Petroleum now simply as XP". They have a half of dozen US-NNSA/Sci-Comm types leading that initiative internally. I think there is a vast subsidy system that keeps Corn production at a high inside the US - giving us goodies like corn syrup, corn meal etc... so not only is XP interested in it, there is a substantial interest in it from the corn/agro business lobby on the hill. Apparently there is some thinking that if the basic tech. has been proven in Brazil then the scale-up can be done with good old American know how ... probably by good old American scientists like Werner Von.. Prospects for Ethanol in the US are far better than nuclear, given the extent of economic interest.

Your question about the impact on the food sector is interesting. I think there is talk of shifting the subsidies from corn to other foods, as part of a national metabolic disorder control strategy. Apparently someone has convinced the US Congress that it will not be possible to deal with so many diabetics and obese people in a future where energy may not be cheap. So the US Congress is going to cut subsidies to corn and plough them into fresh vegetable production over the next decade. I feel this marks a shift in the reliance of the food market on corn and quite possibly we may see a reduction in the amount HFCS and other corn byproducts used in the processed food sector. Given that the US suffers from a serious overproduction of food resources, this kind of reorganisation could create the space needed for a diversion to ethanol. At the very least they are thinking about this in some detail.

I think this brain - body disconnect may simply be a case of cross talk and poor handshaking. Due to the feedback loop you suggest, I think a faction within the brain feels the need to re-evaluate the security of long term capital investments. The remainder of the brain is under the impression that nothing is wrong and so it disinterested or at best confused.

If one part of the brain decides to make a change in the way the body functions and does so without adequate communication with the rest of the brain - then a kind of schizophrenia will manifest - especially if the rest of the brain resists.

If one family group in the US nomenklatura decides to shift their large investments in the carbon energy sector to a more diversified portfolio, then the rest of the nomenklatura will react.

I am leaning towards this view of the present situation. There is only one major family group inside the US-nomenklatura that has had a major change in leadership in the last decade. It is the only one that has successfully projected a younger leader.

Anonymous,

 
At 6:45 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Anonymous,

YIP is busy with other things at this time.

regards
s./

 
At 6:06 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Kg,

Another possibility is that our friends from D.C. are playing both sides of the fence.

The Left is the king's opposition.

 
At 10:20 PM, Anonymous kg said...

Hi Maverick:

Schizophrenia as foreign policy LOL!

Yes, our friends in DC will play everyside, they always do.

The thing that I'd like to grok is the issue of motivation for the NPAs.

The standard assumption is one US led Western pre-eminence with a preference for outright domination which facilitates and guarantees monopoly rents from the rest of the world towards the West.

The various hydrocarbon based special groups are simply one factor in Wests/US led grand strategy.

This is the bit that doesn't gel. Why would the NPAs facilitate Indias, the worlds major (actually only) swing state, towards the proto Eurasian Sino/Russian/Iranian "Understanding"?

It undercuts both of the base theoretical concepts of western security, Mackinders Heartland as well as Spykmans Rimland - if our long term naval strategy is anything to go by.

Kalam, with a host of others has made it absolutely clear that Energy Security is now above Food Security in our national security matrix.

As with the weapons buys of the 60s onwards, if we don't get it from the west we'll go elsewhere. That's guaranteed.

So what are the NPA's trying to do here? Do they really want to push us offside?

Or does it really come down to something as simple as "schizophrenia" from a decision making class that's operationally paralysed due to the unbelivable fuk-ups they've made?

kg.

 
At 10:24 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi kg,

*If* this is not schizophrenia, then it must be a "bipolar"/artificial polarisation type engagement strategy where they actively play both sides of the field in a bid to see who goes along and who doesn't. They deliberately introduce a polarisation in a bid to investigate the system.

One of the voices on the disreputable forum once said that the MMS govt. has illuminated all the key nodes in India's nuclear decision making to the US. The Left's determined opposition to the deal is doing much the same thing, it is bring all the anti-dealers out of the woodwork and putting then on US dominated news networks to see. It is a motherlode of information.

This is a very sophisticated strategy - not unlike what we used in a few places. Though one could debate its effectiveness and the competence of the officers involved in it etc... I can't deny this is very sophisticated.

That is why I am still extremely suspicious of the RaviCV person, the manner in which a debate on India's pursuit of a LIF option was provoked demonstrated a very high level of skill at perception management. Unfortunately my warnings in this regard fell on deaf ears, and people seem to take RaviCV very seriously.

Coming back to your point about the NPA and the fact they are out of sync with the bulk of western strategy for the last 300 years, put it that way and I think the only thing left to do is dismiss them outright as being complete provocations.

Nothing they say is serious, its all a show, a mirage to distract us from the real deal.

I think wrt the NPA position on nuclear technology, it is fair to say that the morality b.s. they lay on is cover for a more rational calculation about technology control. Mostly in the mass production sector whereby the effort is to ensure that the spread of the means to mass productions is kept controlled.

So may be that how it is with all NPA stategery - it is all smoke and mirrors.

 
At 10:27 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi kg,

BTW... is it fair to say that the US nomenclatura is stable?

Or do we deal with this in some other fashion? perhaps a more dynamical model?

 
At 10:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hi m,
Talking of delibrately introducing a bipolar model to gather more information,isn't the fact the LKA publicly defined the Lakshman Rekha's in parliament lead to disclosure of classified information.Look as if Americans are after information!

 
At 8:34 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Maverick and Kg,

Its good to find a decent place to post ... I have been out of the posting racket for about 6 months ... partly because of the cacophony of opinions filling the web in one gigantic circular motion ... it is amusing to see "pundits" repeat an argument that has already been published a thousand times and attempt to make it fresh ...

why post in this mess? ... it is probably saner to attempt poetry reading at a Sabzi Mandi ...

It is instructive to view this deal tamasha in a simple binary way ... fast forward one year from now and examine the landscape for the two cases: deal and no-deal ...

In either case, it is difficult to imagine that India would have tested a new bum in that time-frame ... so what is the tamasha about? ... do we need to fast forward to 5 years from now? ... chances again are that India would not have tested a bum ...

So, the tamasha is really about India getting in bed with uncle ... this causes angst among some and khujli in others ... the former are simply convinced that evolution has left Babus behind and this brainless class of morons will fail to read uncle's mind and end up getting the country screwed ... (somehow these folks are generous to the foggy bottoms and their place in evolution) ... there is no clear argument that will assuage the angst brigade who write miles and miles of grandma's worries that gets posted on some forum in bold font ...

in some ways, this deal has served as a lightening rod to extricate the most reticent of this mob out of the wood work ... the irony is that these same commentators talk about India finding its place as a global leader ... the concept of "strength in isolation" is bogus ... those who point to China are wrong ... China gained strength by engaging uncle not the other way around ... Russia's decline is added proof ... IMO, uncle is not a bugaboo but the natural result of how humans organize themselves ... wishing for an uncle-free world is basically silly ... there always be an uncle in the world and learning to deal with uncles is how little nephews grow up to manhood ... those who call such powers "poodles" are destined to themselves remain stunted puppies ...

(the paragraph above would have excited 9 pages of abuse on some forum) ...

there are very few left in India who are both popular and also believe that India can engage uncle without fear ... all laws are man-made and bound to be rewritten ... this deal is no exception ...

Now, the second class is the "khujli-induced" commentators ... the leftists are playing their role based on their charter/instinct ... but what about the ex-socialists? ... the brave men of Lohia are opposed to the imperialist pigs at a deeper level ... their commentary shows growing desperation ... clutching at straws, they have even brought themselves to read arcane documents like the planning commission's report on power generation projections ...

some claim that the left tamasha has worked like a balm to partly ameliorate BJP's khujli ... uncle's men have been talking to Mishra et al ... what do you think was discussed? ... NMD? or some other assurance? I don't know ... in any case, the left will have to return to its role of protesting against privatization of airports ... they have bitten more than they can chew by entering foreign policy debate out in the open ...

talking about power generation projections, are folks really that dense that they imagine a static world and impose nuke power on top of it and come up with numbers like 5.7%? ... can they even begin to think of fuel wars? ... can they understand the difference between a plane load of nuke fuel and a tanker full of crude oil? ... how many tankers are equivalent to one planeload? ... which is easier to disrupt, one sole flight versus a continuous stream of tankers? ... what is even more ironic is that ex-socialists are worried about how much money Reliance would have to spend on importing reactors/fuel ... but even there, they miss the real point of the economics ... they inject figures like "$/MW" from some paper by an uncle scientist and compare it to "$/MW" of coal and score some major points ... uncle's costs have regulatory burdens and DAE's costs have had monopoly burden ... IMO, we really don't know what nuke power in India will cost until someone like MukeshBhai has sunk his teeth into it ...

and then there is the Holy Thorium ... this post is too long so I will save that for next time ...

btw, the only good thing about this deal tamasha is that little kids have now heard 3-stage this and 3-stage that on TV so often that a few might actually get curious enough to study nuclear physics ...

Alok_N

 
At 8:38 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

RaviCV was genuine, but his conclusions were not necessarily correct.

 
At 11:45 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi M,
Long before RaviCV graced the forum with his wisdom some DF folks were expressing the need to test further in private discussions/emails. I thought it was strange 'coz this suggestion came from mutual friend(s) of ours who once shot down any doubts on our weapon yields.
Back then I dismissed it as an expression of this new "big swinging d1(k arrogance" we see even among the old. Now as I see the ridiculous tamasha (RaviCV and beyond) and the Bipolar Disorder exhibited by some in the Nuke thread I suspect that someone's feeding them prime BS. Professional false-flag op comes to my mind but then the DF is not taken THAT seriously..... :)

Regards,
T.W.

 
At 7:49 PM, Anonymous kg said...

Hey Alok:

Beautifully put. And that's one hell of a post to make a comeback on!

>> Fuel wars . . .

And the worst part is that everyone one of the "unkil is eveel" folk who'll be the first in line to point to Iraq and say "it's all about oil", immediately switch of their brains when asked to think through what that actually implies!

Yes, the tamasha is all about the nature of the Indo-US relationship more that about nukes - but that still goes back to the whole "is there a secret codicil/understanding" thing. The Left is a part of GoI, and I have a hard time believing that the BJP, given the gupshup nature of Dilli, could have missed something during the negotiation process. Something went pear-shaped after the 123 agreement was released.

Whether it was a deliberate attempt at polarisation or not, the end result is what Maverick and you have written - all sorts of things hidden in the woodwork have had a strobe-light shone on them. Lets see where it goes.

Maverick:

I've never thought about the stability of the US/Wests nomenclatura! That's a really interesting question. . .

Re: Smoke and mirrors >> Yes, but anyone whose looked at our own elite structures knows that there's a strong sense of caution (or "paranoia" depnding on the perspective) running through it especially where the West is concerned. Basically what Aloks described above.

If this is deliberate provocation, what's the point though? I can't see it being *only* information.

kg.

 
At 8:35 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hi alok_n,
The biggest question right now is after M.K.Narayanan who? Mayawati? Mulayam ? Our ability to screw ourselves is a far bigger worry than unkil screwing us

 
At 12:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Maverick,
I deeply appreciate your views except when you talk about the dollar. The situation is not bad as you think and even if it was bad, it is beyond American government's ability to do something about it.

 
At 5:43 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

T.W.,

I don't recognize your handle from DF ... however, it is possible that I was part of the email discussion that you allude to ... RaviCV dropped in out of nowhere so it was suspicious, but apparently, he checked out ...

Anonymous,

not sure why you club MKN with the leading lights of UP ... in case you are worried about lack of talent in India, rest assured ... sensitive posts will always have competent Babus ... there are enough who are sharp as a tack and not easily fooled ...

along these lines, I wonder when Indian polity will find a way to appoint non-Neta ministers in key ministries ... India CEOs are showing how they can take the world by the horns ...

political allies need to be rewarded ... however, is "Minister-ji" the only possible way to make sure they are happy and have their fingers in a good supply of funds and kickbacks?

I may be bold enough to say that GOI could set aside 1% of its budget (aprox $10B) as Keep-Neta-Ji-Happy fund and still win big time ... because the replacement ministers will enable GOI to not only recover that 1% but add another 10% to its coffers ...

(compare CEOs of PSUs in India to those of even a small auto parts manufacturing unit to see my point)

I had hopes that MMS will rationalize this Minister-ji business but the High Command demands business as usual ...

 
At 5:46 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

sorry about the typo/madarssa math ... 1% of GDP and not the budget ...

 
At 6:25 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Anonymous,

Yes that is correct. The immediate target of a bipolar engagment strategy would be information.

It is vital therefore to shield information critical to national security from the debate atmosphere.

I think the most important thing at this point is for all the knowledgeable participants in this debate on the Indian side to constantly ask themselves the following question: "is the release of this information going to damage national security in any way?"

I think I will shortly present another post on this topic.

 
At 6:43 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Alok,

I think the only things that Indians interacting with Uncle's representatives must understand are:

1) Uncle's men (and women) have the ability to process more information than they do.

2) Uncle has huge capital reserves that they can drop at any time and place of their choosing.

This makes dealing with them a very complicated exercise. ]

The Left is reflexively hostile to the US and this makes them very predictable. The Left used to have a substantial backing from some industrial groups, and they were very powerful in the licensed industry era.

This is no longer the case, the Left's industrial base has shrunk as fraction of the national capital base. To understand which groups the Left still has ties to, we must investigate which mutual funds the Leftist leadership invests its monies in. The lower rung left front leaders are keen to engage new industrial houses and power production is a leverage they would like to have. This makes it all terribly predictable.

The Thorium route is something we are committed to. I am aware of the difficulties involved, technical and economic but I do not see any alternative to pursuing it.

 
At 7:06 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Anonymous and T.W.

RaviCV opened the debate on higher yeilds. Specificially he held out the possibility that India was pursuing even higher yeilds than earlier suggested.

India has always maintained a very neutral stance on the issue of what yeilds we exactly need.

RaviCV's provocation brought the Yeild issue centre-stage and made the hype addicted types charge to the high yeild end.

It does not seem at all obvious to me why India (or anyone else in the world) needs higher higher yeilds. Emerging literature from the US, for example, seems to focus increasingly on "clean burning" "dial-a-yeild" devices. The US seems to talk of lowered yeild to weight requirements and a desire to keep higher serviciablity. Higher yeilds are being increasingly demanded from smaller conventional explosives.

It is unclear how anyone can make a case for a ready-to-fire high yeild weapons array, especially in India where cost benifit calculations are difficult at the best of times.

RaviCV it seems was keen to push a discussion on the voluntary moratorium on testing that India has stuck to. I am told he talked about the inadequacy of the yeild obtained in earlier tests and he mentioned the unsatifactory nature of the tests from his perspective on the nuclear weapons issue. One cannot know what he was told when he was doing the work or if anything he did had any relevance to the test.

Whatever his credentials and intentions, the manner in which he provoked a discussion on India's intentions in the yeild arena was compromised India's existing position on the yeilds issue.

I feel it important to recap the discussion on testing in the US.

The US has conducted a very large number of tests. This has enabled it, allegedly to stabilise a simulation framework for designing the fissile core of a nuclear weapons. Some weapons designers are of the opinion that the simulation itself can be used to design new weapons and deploy them without further testing. Pro-testing groups in the US advocate against this idea. They contend that the testing is mainly a way of getting an handle on aspects of the weapons' functioning that cannot be addressed through simulation, like the long term stability of chemicals, the mechanical ageing of components etc... The pro-test group argues that it is unsafe even to attempt stewardship of an old arsenal without continous testing of random samples from the stockpile. The US military finds itself closer to the pro-test lobby, and the uniformed services point out that very soon the last US soldier to have actually seen a nuclear test will retire. There will simply be no one in the uniformed branch that will have seen the weapon deployed in any way and consequently the ability of the uniformed services field these weapons with any level of confidence will be very low. The US military however agrees that an investment in cleaner, dial-a-yeild warheads with higher servicability is advisable given the fiasco with last set of designs. The pro-test group currently dominates the debate by holding out the implicit suggestion that the deployment of any new warhead designs without testing would amount to imposing nuke nudity on the US military and this is why most people believe a covert/over US test of new weapons designs is inevitable.

 
At 7:10 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi kg,

I would like to proceed on the assumption that the target is information.

It may be that I am completely wrong, but I don't see a problem as yet in terms of starting from here.

I too assumed stability in the nomenclatura, but then with the emergence of S. V. Date's book on Jeb, I was forced to reconsider.

It is difficult to discuss this sort of thing in public.

 
At 7:24 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Anonymous,

I don't know if it is America's problem that the dollar is doing badly. Perhaps I am reading too much into Secy. Paulson's suggestions that China reduce the way it fixes the Yuan so that the US can drive the Yuan up and reduce dependence on imports. Given this peculiar manner in which Secy. Paulson of all people is choosing to lecture China on how to handle its economy and its currency, one wonders.

If this was someone else I would be keen to brush it aside as someone who doesn't know what they are talking about or someone who does not appreciate how much the Chinese hate being addressed in supercilious ways, but given that this is Secy. Paulson, a man on considerable ability, I am bewildered that he would choose such a callous tone. I surmise that worries about the dollar's predicament run deeper than public posturing over the issue will let us believe.

Irrespective of whether the USG intends to do anything about the international losses sustained by others due to a dropping dollar, we have to come up with a strategy to make the 100 Billion plus cash reserves go the distance.

We have three real strategies,

1) Give the dollars to the US and get something in return. Like reactors, uranium etc...

2) Give it to China (buy J10s or JF-17s etc...) or Pakistan (say as an exchange - one dollar for one counterfeit Indian rupee - they have about the same value) or someone else for something and then let them sort it out with the Americans.

3) Hold on to the money and risk losing it to a market fluctuation.

Essentially we have to use the dollar in a way that it benifits us the most. One opinion is that it should be used in a way that maximises our share of international trade. Another opinion is to write it off as a bad debt and start afresh.

In any case I am not burdened (THANKFULLY) with making such decisions, this sort of calculus could only be attempted by someone at the highest levels of the government.

I have attempted to explain this to the friends of the BJP and I find their lack of appreciation for my point of view ... curious.

 
At 6:49 PM, Anonymous kg said...

Maverick:

Okay, if this is an information gathering exercise, the question then is what information and for what purposes. They're obviously aiming for actual leverage, so where?

i.e. What could they learn form this that they couldn't have done via the usual stuff?

One possibility in the two main areas is/are:

1. The Scicom:

I think it was Iyenegar, (he's against the deal currently), who had pointed out after Pok2 that one of the reasons Unkils intel folk had failed to spot things from the humint angle was because of a "traditional Indian guru/student relationships" deliberately cultivated within the Scicom as an alternate methodology for info dissemination amongst themselves. This is instead of the standard "publish or perish" method of identifying the best youngsters.

The idea seemed to be that the traditional Indian oral/verbal method of the older people identifying the best youngsters amongst themselves prevented outsiders form knowing what was going on and makes it impossible to identify whats going on in key areas by mere literature searches etc.

2. Politics:

I noticed, which I thought was quite amusing, that "some" folks on the DF were complaining that there exists no strategic community in India and appeared convinced that GoI has, deliberately over the decades, failed to fund strategic institutes, like Indian equivalents of US think tanks, as part of GoIs usual incompetence, corruption, masterplan or whatnot to sell the nation out.

It apparently hasn't occured to some of these folks, distressed by GoI's eternal attempts to damage and sell out the nation, that GoI prefers, like the Scicom, to use the long term "Indian" preference for guru/student guru-to-guru oral and verbal type relationships for information dissemination internally, precisely because it avoids the rather flatulent US type think-tank culture and the cultivation of vast numbers of "strategic talkers" filling the info-sphere with rubbish.

And more importantly, because it deliberately cultivates the opacity this places over the decision making nodes to introduce a real degree of uncertainty in the calcultaions of any aggressor.

These are the same folk who will babble on endlessly about India being a "soft state" without understanding the nature of the consensus mechanism that lies at the heart of the interaction of the decision making folk in GoI.

(Note: isn't it curious how many of our "Indian greater" folks really wish GoI wasn't, well, Indian, and more Israeli, or US or Chinese or whatever. There's a PhD thesis waiting to be written on folks who claim they want Indian "greatness" preferably by being as non-Indian as possible.)

If it's information retreval, then It's possible that this is what they're after.

See, most of the chattering class, caught up in their own endless cleverness, usually fail to see the incredible importance of the consensus mechanism within GoI. This does lead to a weak decision making process within GoI, but it also leads to astonishingly strong decisions because every main stakeholder has a stake in the actual decision, not merely the decision making process via some vacuous "consultation".

Because everyone of any real importance actually has a percentage of the "yes" or "no" decision (and not just the discussions on "yes" or "no", it means they "own shares" in the "yes/no" and will act to defend it.

This consensus mechanism is the vital and the very heart of the political process in India.

If this deal tamasha is real, and if the US is after info, then one possible assumption is that the US somehow wants to get "in" on this and the current information retrieval process is designed to give them a handle on this.

Think of the handle the US would have if they became part of the consensus mechanism!!!

kg.

 
At 7:25 PM, Anonymous kg said...

Re: US dollar/capital

I'd take the importance of the US dollar and rights of US capital in India really, really seriously.

The subprime crisis has apparently cascaded through the entire system and damage is so vast that it, literally, hasn't been figured out yet.

I mean, bank runs in the United Queendom!!

The drop in the dollar is the US' way of telling the world, Sure that's one hell of a mess, I made, but hell it was one hell of a party. Now fukin pull your fingers out boys and gals, you lot have to pay to clean up that mess I made at the party last night . . . or else!!

It's possible that one of the elements of the "Understanding" that the US wants form us is with respect to US capital and intellectual property rights in India.

This may be on of the reasons the left is so up in arms.

I've discounted this reason because I can't see the NPAs surviving for long within the US system if they mess about with US capital.

But if there is a disconnect between the US' brain and mouth - i.e. between the decision and opinion making segments in the US, then this may be possible - if unlikely.

Paulsons methods could be explained rather simply: The rest of the world is in a bind because of the importance of the US market.

China is now "rich" its because of the US dollar horde they have. i.e. I'm rich because I have something of value - gold say. If gold is no longer valuable, am I still rich?

Similarly with China. If the value of the dollar falls are they still rich? This happened in the '97 Asian crisis. Mahathir answered that question by telling Malaysians that they now have to work harder because they'd become poorer with their currencies collapse.

If the dollar falls, the rest of the world becomes poorer, not the US because they can print as many dollars as they want since the dollar is the worlds reserve currency.

By the time a different currency like the Euro can challenge the dollar, (it may take a decade or more) the Chinese would be broke and the possibility of the backlash against the Chinese government by its own people is very real.

Paulson is reminding the Chinese in no uncertain terms, as to who holds the whip hand.

I do not think this is, as yet, as important for us. They don't have, I think, that degree of a hold on our wealth creation.

Its certainly true that the US would like that degree of a hold over us, but that's an evolutionary thing. It takes time to implement.

And while it may be an issue, I don't think, not the evidence so far, that it's a driver of the deal tamasha.

kg.

 
At 11:56 PM, Anonymous s.venkat said...

The discussion in the thread went over my head.It was such a great relief.This was a really good reality check for me.I always knew that i was dumb but then i had the luxury to afford my fantasies.

 
At 1:49 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hi m/kg or anyone else,
Kindly can anyone explain why does MMS feel that if there is a winter then there cannnot be a spring very far away? Any premonition he has?

 
At 3:20 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hi m,
1)Isn't the fact that MMS,MKN & Co are driven more by naked lust for power i.e achieving the status of a great power than by crisis on the security front?

 
At 6:53 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi kg,

I agree the real target is the personal relationships inside the Scicomm and the information that is transmitted via verbal channels there.

I suspect that despite all pretensions to the contrary the US has no real idea what the exact S1 and S2 designs. This lack of information must be quite upsetting.

Without that information I think they can never be certain of any risk management strategies will work. And as you point out that that kind of knowledge obtained through false disciples or other means will yeild them some leverage.

I cannot say whether India finds this kind of targetting acceptable or not at the present time. My gut instinct tells me that India will not find this sort of behaviour acceptable, however I stress I do not have the authority to say that.

w.r.t the dollar:

The precariousness of the situation is not apparent to most people who make light of this. Once the dollar is dumped, it will no longer remain a global currency.

Merrill Lynch just took stock of its losses. I imagine that Goldman Sachs and other so-called FIIs will also do the same pretty soon. We can expect more action on Wall Street. The sub-prime crisis is spiralling into other ancilliary sectors as well, principally the amount of credit card debt is rising rapidly as people are taking credit card debts to cover essential commodity costs. Essential commodity costs as you know are most closely tied to fuel prices and the rise in oil prices has led to inflation in food prices. The current spike in oil prices will hit the American consumer some time around summer 2008. I anticipate that by the end of the year the USG will be forced to open the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to secure domestic pricing in this period. This winter itself should see Americans attempting to decide whether to pay heating bills or mortgages. Unless the street prices of heroin, methamphetamines and cocaine are held absolutely steady at this time, we will see spiraling drug use and lawlessness in American cities.

I do not envy the US NSC, they clearly have a lot on their plate.

You are correct about China not wanting the collapse of the dollar as it will harm its trading relationship, however if you notice the Chinese have diversified their holdings very aggressively over the last decade. The dollar reserves in some sense represent a very small fraction of the total Chinese wealth, which is some ways is more quantified by their market access.

A situation will soon arise when the Chinese will emerge as the principle carriers of US debt in the world and a cash starved Washington will permit them liberties that most would consider unimaginable. This is what is people say will happen when Hillary Clinton comes to power.

Honestly, it is becoming difficult for me to see what Secy. Paulson is doing in China (or India - did you read the NYT piece about protectionism in India's finanical markets?) as being anything besides aggressive panhandling.

 
At 7:02 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Anonymous,

Only PM Manmohan Singh can take India through this storm of currency re-evalutations.

The Rupee has faced similar pressures in 1991, at the time it was Manmohan Singh who kept things under control. No one else has the experience or the competence for this job.

Unless the Indo-US deal goes through, it will be very difficult to see how this crisis with the dollar will not hit India hard. That is why there is no spring after this winter. It is simply going to get colder and colder.

Anonymous,

> Isn't the fact that MMS,MKN & Co are driven more by naked lust for power i.e achieving the status of a great power than by crisis on the security front?


MMS and Co are a global power. The world simply has not recognized it yet. The security concerns have always existed in every single international treaty we have signed. This is quite simply the first time a larger portion of the general public is being exposed to the inner workings of a treaty. It is difficult to expect MMS and Co to spend their time assuring strategic newbies that "aisa hi hota hain". There is more to be gained by ensuring compliance in international circles. Anyway all the people making a racket right now will shut up when the Internationals they love to copy so much fall at India's feet.

 
At 7:38 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hi m
Sometime back I had thought of logging of from here nevertheless, don't you think that provocation of the scientists(drdo+aec),parliamentarians by MMS was a carefully thought strategy.

One must also accept the fact that the powers to be in Delhi including MMS/SG haven't realised that 2007 is no years of the 70's when IG reigned supreme. Here we have a fully functioning oppostion who will oppose tooth and nail the policies of the ruling party. Had it been 1970's there would not been a whimper for/against this agreement. Somehow it hasn't dawned on the congress of the two party system of the present era

 
At 10:35 AM, Blogger maverick said...

hi anonymous,

I think the PM had a strategy but it was not the provocation strategy you are suggesting. As Sri. Brajesh Mishra has alluded, all those who mattered critically were consulted verbally long before any negotiations with the US were done.

This is not out of the ordinary. This is the way the GoI does things. It is bizarre to see retired bureaucrats complain about this when they used to do exactly this whenever they were in the office.

Most of the noise we are seeing is from people who simply weren't critical the decision. Who cares if Prabir Purkayastha did not see any document emphasising nuclear energy in the 90s? Even if he had been shown Document 10 at the DAE website, would he have cared to read it? Who cares if Arundhati Roy is concerned about the effects of radiation on children in Singhbhum? who amongst us really believes that Arundhati gives rats ass about those children? Who cares if Brahma Chellany or Bharat Karnad were kept out of the loop? Where in the Indian constitution does it say that self-appointed experts have to be consulted?

I offer my deepest sympathies to these people, but as far as I can see, all those that needed to know were told about it. From the Government of India's perspective the rest simply did not matter then and do not matter now.

Sure there is well developed opposition now, let them prove themselves in the election. Ofcourse how anyone is going to win any election in the future without presenting a plan to meet the Bijlee-Sadak-Pani requirement is beyond me, but you know me... I am apolitical. I will support whichever government comes into power.

Let these people who oppose the deal because they were not consulted come to power, I will support their actions too.

 
At 11:10 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"MMS and Co are a global power. The world simply has not recognized it yet. The security concerns have always existed in every single international treaty we have signed. This is quite simply the first time a larger portion of the general public is being exposed to the inner workings of a treaty. It is difficult to expect MMS and Co to spend their time assuring strategic newbies that "aisa hi hota hain".

M, I probably fall in that newbies category and I sure hope and wish what you say above plays out as such.

At the moment, I dont have the confidence. MMS and co would make an excellent FM (and yes he would be the right type to chart a course out of looming dollar infidelity), he's just not the type needed as a PM IMHO. Look at all the slander that came from the PMO, look at how we are now witness to ridiculous spectacle of external parties talking to the opposition, essentially mediating. How ridiculous is that. Yes, we can complain that the alternate may be a process thats too slow and that somehow India will miss the bus. My opinion is that yes its slow and you have to forgo instant gratification but its sure.

Also, I see a lot of folks here taking swipes at the DF. Why?
I have heard some sily gripes here - but me thinks there's another reason? I guess it will come out sooner or later.
Anyway, contrary to what is being stated here, those sckepitcal of the deal have in general not been very vocal. The way it was played out ended up making it so. Sure there are some idealogues who would probably be singing a different tune were it being sheparded by a different team, but dismissing everything using that would suggest that they just dont know their India.

As always keep posting sir. The more folks get to see all views the better.

rgds
Pradeep.

 
At 11:17 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"I think the PM had a strategy but it was not the provocation strategy you are suggesting. As Sri. Brajesh Mishra has alluded, all those who mattered critically were consulted verbally long before any negotiations with the US were done. "

M, I must have missed the above while posting. I hope so.

pradeep.

 
At 1:54 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Pradeep,

Manmohan Singhji is not seeking street popularity or mass appeal.

He has quite a task ahead of him in places where his popularity is unchallenged, i.e. in the corridors of the administrative, finanicial and industrial sector. In those places, words like "national security" have a more concrete realisation in terms of the interests of the people involved. Public perceptions of "national soverignity" or "security" which are shaped more by the media environment are largely irrelevant in those places.

Tragically the term "national security" or "soverignity" is abused in public debate by all and sundry.

At the present time Manmohan Singhji's inability to get media appointed experts to agree with him is not going to be held against him.

What will matter is the ability of the PM to defend our core national interests. And whether the BRF crowd get it or not, the core national interests currently revolve around insulating our economy against the economic shocks that will come from the collapse of the dollar.

I see no harm in being anti-deal or in being vocal. I think it is fine not have a position on the deal too. That is all part of the debate.

The problem is when well meaning folks, like those on BRF, are seized with the desire to speak more than they think. Such people are are beyond my capability to convince.

The attitude taken vis-a-vis the Scicomm, the manner in which the words of NPA and Left wing lobbyists are given greater credibility than Scicom purely for political purposes is truly depressing. One wonders why a forum like BRF is keen on participating in NPA inspired fishing expeditions?

I have lost count of the number of apologies I have had to tender to New Delhi on BRF's behalf, but I will do so no more.

I am truly ashamed to have associated with BR in any way.

 
At 6:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"I am truly ashamed to have associated with BR in any way."

Hi M,

I have begun to feel this way ... perhaps for different reasons ... the true face of that forum was revealed to me in the ugliest of fashions ... for a forum lecturing others on principles, it harbors the slipperiest of individuals in charge of the content ...

with opportunism at the top, undergraduate wannabe's run the roost with their bold font chicken little acts ...

having said that, I still have some very good friends there ... some in power, some not ... so, I do wish that they get their act together and curb conspiracy inspired riddles ...

what distresses me the most is to see yet another kind of "khujli-induced" brigade ... I am not proud of the fact that my nation of 1.1B people knowingly put a foreigner in charge ... however, the response to that is to not whine on the forum but examine the causes that project La Rajmata as a savior ...

with apologies to that "gora scumbag" bard:

the fault dear Desi lies not in our Sonia, but in us that we are like that onlee ...

 
At 7:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Also, I see a lot of folks here taking swipes at the DF. Why?

Pradeep,

why? ... isn't it obvious? ... it is for the same reason that the DF for a long time has been taking swipes at Uneven, Profool, Hali-Khali, Iass Garib, Maro-Goli, Musharaffa, WKK brigade etc etc ...

does it not seem odd to you that Seema-ji is now quoted with reverence and her "insight" wins accolades? ...

what else defines opportunism?

the forum has transformed from a place of debate to a place of whining and propaganda ... granted, my comment is restricted to the deal tamasha onlee ... I still enjoy stalwarts like Sridhar and Suraj on the T&E forum ...

time has come for the forumites to contend with derision if the forum persists with peurile analyses ...

Cheers.

 
At 8:26 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi M,
""I have lost count of the number of apologies I have had to tender to New Delhi on BRF's behalf, but I will do so no more.""

I protest that you apologize on New Delhi's behalf.I too have lost count on the number of apologies that I have tendered to you. It is very easy to criticise the actions of the govt, it is very easy to support the actions of the govt irresepctive of the party in power, but it is very hard to come up with an *independent* analysis of the problem at hand. It is very to easy to raise problems, but very hard to bring up independent solutions to the table(one of my execs use to say). You may think it as preaching to powers that may be, but sure the Govt. has done enough mess up ,to be its devotee. What LKA has to say about Congress: What has done congress done in the last 50 years?

 
At 8:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi M,
the first line was a typo
"I protest that you apologize on New Delhi's behalf" it should have been BRF's behalf!. By the way has New Delhi ever apologized to anything!

 
At 10:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

M,

You say MMSji is not seeking street popularity. I guess I would agree and that was never
a contention.

I understand the discomfort when the sci-com is made a target. I cringe. That is brought up often.
Was Sanjay Baru operating on his own. Why so much indignity now. It was as bad then as it is
now. So, why make MMS the holy cow. Also reading the english media, there are as many if not more media experts agreeing to
him, nay pushing his agenda as there are those disagreeing with him.

Anyway, thats a digression. But you mentioned core national interests.
So the reason for all this khujli is the definition of core national interests.
No one can argue with economic security and energy security - is there a cost thats deemed acceptable.
And does the 123 deal get India energy security through nuclear energy. Aren't the deal pushers basically being un-truthful when they state that.
Btw, I dont think this deal is about nuclear energy.

==
Re. the DF. I apologize for not keeping my mouth shut in the first instance. I have to disagree. I have no holy cows. But lets please drop it.
Anon, IMHO, from what I can see Seema M's insight is not being celebrated. She has access to the left and obviously knows the IM elites pulse. So a view point
depending on the topic. Last from me on this. I again apologize.

rgds
Pradeep.

 
At 1:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hi m,
in the hindsight what you are saying may be right. Sometime I get my emotions let loose. Nevertheless can you let us more about this currency reevaluation

 
At 3:36 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who cares if Prabir Purkayastha did not see any document emphasising nuclear energy in the 90s? Even if he had been shown Document 10 at the DAE website, would he have cared to read it? Who cares if Arundhati Roy is concerned about the effects of radiation on children in Singhbhum? who amongst us really believes that Arundhati gives rats ass about those children? Who cares if Brahma Chellany or Bharat Karnad were kept out of the loop?

Don't you think we should care when PK Iyengar and A. Prasad themselves voice their concerns on the deal? Surely they have some domain expertise on it?

Also, the "all those who mattered critically were consulted verbally " mode of operation worked fine earlier, but this is a 2007 construct. Times have changed and the bureaucracy needs to move along as well. Ramming a clearly contentious deal with a coalition government to boot down others throats is not going to fly these days.

 
At 3:56 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Guys,
M.N. Srinivasan,RC,AK,MKN & co are the realists with the administration. Isn't it curious that most of the ex-PM's,ex-presidents, serving president are very quite on this deal?

 
At 6:37 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Anonymous,

I must confess I never thought BR would become a source of such shame to me.

Relentless attacks on the PM, the PMO, and now the Scicom. It is truly sad how such things have come to pass.

Hi Anonymous,

I don't know how else to say this. I do not approve of the attacks on the Scicom or the PMO. I do not want to have anything to do with that kind of behaviour.

As far as I am concerned the sun rises and sets in New Delhi and it may rise and set elsewhere too, but that is not my concern. If others wish to make it their concern - that is their decision - but all I ask is that the proper decorum be observed when addressing their questions.

BRF's claims to knowledge may be credible in cyberspace, but the manner in which it asks questions are considered universally offensive. While one might tolerate that kind of behaviour when BRF talks about some academic or journalist, it is unlikely that people in India will be as accepting if BRF talks that way about sitting officers of the Government of India or elected political officials in India.

In the past in my capacity as a member of the site, I have been asked and begged forgiveness for those who do not know they have sinned. After that I have specifically told the sinners what the nature of their sins was. This is the best I could have done under the circumstances as there is no way to take back words that have been said or to undo the hurt that such an action might have caused.

Currently it appears that BRF is seeking to speak irresponsibly about the Scicom even though it knows that it is doing so. I cannot possibly apologise on BRFs behalf under such circumstances.

I fully understand how the stalling of the deal has created political opportunities for all sorts of groups and I am sure everyone on the right and the left is keen to ride the anti-deal tiger to power in New Delhi. The Scicom does not bother itself with such politics and should not be dragged into political discussions. Whatever political opportunities are being manufactured (real or imaginary) I feel they should leave the scicom out of it. The Scicom is apolitical - accusing them of partisan conduct is rubbish. They tell you facts as they are. If you don't like those facts because they don't suit your political perspective, that is your problem not the Scicoms. The Scicom does not do any political analysis it only provides scientific consultancy.

There is no equivalence between an anonymous voice ranting on the forum and what the leader of the opposition says. Sri. L K Advani nor Chairman Karat need people on BRF to diss the Scicom to make their political stands known. What Sri. L. K. Advani has to say about Congress is what he has to say about it, and he can speak for himself. Why people on BRF have to hit out at the Scicom I cannot possibly understand.

New Delhi has apologised for its mistakes several times in history, those of us who see history without colourful political decorations remember those occasions well.

 
At 7:02 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Pradeep,

The PM is the holiest of cows. Even the DCH should learn that. They can learn that the easy way or the hard way. The choice is entirely theirs.

The Indo-US nuclear deal provides the best value for money (i.e. paper dollar bills) that India can get at this time.

A deal with China or a currency exchange with Pakistan seem like other options but I am not convinced of the value for money in these. If someone can convince me how either of these will help the Indian economy sustain its growth rate, I am willing to listen.

Hi Anonymous,

As I said before all those that mattered were consulted - this includes key members of the coalition.

You are correct that given the sheer number of people, it is not possible to talk to everyone. I accept that as a natural human limitation.

Sri. Iyengar and Sri. Prasad are retired officers of the GoI. They are unlikely to have any role in the implementation of any further activities at the DAE.

Given their long exposure to the DAE, their concerns were well known before the deal was every discussed with the Americans. I would be lying to you if I said ideas like this deal had not be been considered earlier even when they were serving officers. They are well aware of what goes into such things and their concerns matter the most to the current Scicom. In any case, as their views were well known, the subtext of their concerns was addressed before the negotiations were undertaken.

At this point Sri. Iyengar's public comments must be taken as a summary of his concerns with such a deal in general and not as comment on the specific deal that was negotiated. Sri. Iyengar's action is very significant in shaping the public debate and it is unfortunate if people read it as an indictment of the Scicom.

The same can be said about Sri Prasad, a more careful (i.e. less politically lensed) reading of his views will reveal the true nature of Sri. Prasad's concerns.

This sort of nuanced reading is unlikely to happen in this politically charged atmosphere. People simply want to read the highlights, they don't want to bother with the details. That I think is perhaps the greatest disservice that our nation can do to people like Sri. Iyengar and Sri. Prasad. Reading only the politically highlighted portions of their statements is tantamount to ignoring them.

 
At 7:04 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Taking a page from Anonymous' book about retired presidents and prime ministers, read Dr. Kalam's recent statement carefully.

All the retired people are saying the same thing:

"we do not want any deals with strings attached - strings that compromise the country's right to defend itself".

Observers will do well to focus on that.

 
At 7:32 AM, Blogger quantum chaos said...

hi maverick,
i have gone through your blog in toto after posting a comment on last thread.it has been a sobering read and i have learnt much.both in terms of info and in ways of seeing things.
i have to ask you two questions.
1)were you a diplomat?
2) do you believe that this sub prime crisis is stage managed?
i came across this post on WAB which i beleive unlike DF is not so jingoistic.could you comment on it?
http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/political-discussions/40982-megatrend-watch-beyond-us-subprime-crisis-fall-dragon.html

and yes if i have to ask you some question on e mail whats your id?
thanks
abhisheik

 
At 7:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

So the PMO is allowed to make nasty comments about the sci. comm. but ordinary jokers in cyberspace will have to face the wrath of the Indian government if they do the same? That is a comforting thought.

BRF does not exist to please people on power trips in New Delhi -- it just exists for all sorts of common people to say idiotic and on the rare occasion something of value. It can lose reputation as easily as it "gained reputation", but it would still continue to serve the same purpose. It does not need the assent or the supercilious nod of divas to exist. Get used to it.

 
At 8:09 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi M,
""There is no equivalence between an anonymous voice ranting on the forum and what the leader of the opposition says.""
Regrets....

 
At 9:49 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

So the PMO is allowed to make nasty comments about the sci. comm. but ordinary jokers in cyberspace will have to face the wrath of the Indian government if they do the same? That is a comforting thought.

BRF does not exist to please people on power trips in New Delhi -- it just exists for all sorts of common people to say idiotic and on the rare occasion something of value. It can lose reputation as easily as it "gained reputation", but it would still continue to serve the same purpose. It does not need the assent or the supercilious nod of divas to exist. Get used to it.

7:32 AM


well said anon!

if my vote is good enough for the mofos in Delhi to chase after, then they can take my opinion which comes with it as well.

whats this BS of apologising to delhi for BRF? did brf apologise to musharraf because he is posted as a serial goat- rear orifice offender or because shri manmohan singh routinely denigrates india by using idiotic imagery outside india?

maverick dear, goi is run by politicians and they are capable of being criticized get used to it

and lastly while cursing scicom is bad (they are not politicians like manmoorkh singh), u chaps know nothing of india in reality

if u did- and this holds very true for u kg, as u sit in oz - u'd know three things

-bk may not be high on tech but he says what he is told by ppl whom he is in touch with, becoz he is a hawk and regarded with respect

-"that bat crazy religious hatred" against xtians and muslims is nothing compared to the frustration INDIANS in INDIA have with the same xtians and muslims who have abused indias secular ethos (set up by indias founding fathers who were almost all, to a man hindu) by conversions and violence

instead of reflecting within, as usual u guys curse the reality!! talk about delusional

even the most liberal hindus now praise any and every hardline hindu leader

kg- i mean no disrespect to you personally but unless u observe the reality, you will end up in RAPE land where they whine about victimization without realising how it is they who have alienated all around them

similar is the case with the muslim community in india and even the xtian leaders

rein in the missionaries or watch the "counterrevolution"...


- u claim of being upset about attacks on the scicom- who started these attacks but ur very own dilli billis of the PMO and manmoorkh singh

maverick, let me say this- ur in no way connected to the establishment so why do u constantly attempt to speak for them or otherwise?

 
At 9:51 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

patriotism is good...but blind faith is worse

gents be aware..in india there are many pushes and pulls..

goi is currently run by doves..which is why the hawks are upset

 
At 11:44 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello Abhishek,

I am not a diplomat.

I do not know to what extent the sub-prime crisis has been moderated.

WAB has an agenda.

I can be reached at breadomlette at yahoo.

 
At 11:52 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Anonymous,

The Scicom serves the PMO. The PMO does not need to waste time making "nasty comments" about the Scicom in front of the media.

Frankly I don't even see why BRF needs to exist at all if all it brings to the table is useless trash talk.

 
At 12:02 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Anonymous,

I know enough about India to tell you BRF's abrasive style earns it no friends in India.

I didn't realise that BRF sees Musharraf and the Prime Minister/ Scicom of India in the same light. This is complete news to me.

That is a tragic attitude for a place like BRF to have.

It seems that at least Pakdef knows which side its bread is buttered on.

Or perhaps BRF has started getting its bread buttered on the same side as Pakdef?

 
At 12:03 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The PMO already rubbised the sci com two years ago, so that is not a figment of anyone's imagination.

BRF exists because Indians exist and people talk nonsense all the time. If the PM can trash talk the majority community in the international media, he and his cronies should be prepared for an equally nasty and vicious response. It would be fitting and well deserved.

If idiotic jokers on BRF cannot say nasty things about the PM because it is indecent and uncalled for, maybe the PM should avoid saying nasty things about Indians in the international press...being a PM, he has a responsibility to watch his words, and if he does not care to do so, he should not be surprised when everyone else follows the same etiquette as he does.

As for the existence of BRF, it will exist as long as people have something to say, however idiotic it may be to all you power-jockey divas with connections high up in the Indian governemen (according to you).

 
At 12:16 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Anonymous,

>>maverick, let me say this- ur in no way connected to the establishment so why do u constantly attempt to speak for them or otherwise?

I don't have "commendations" handed by some member of the establishment and neither can I produce "jpegs" and "mpegs" of establishments and the insides. Nor do GoI personalities send me emails or snail mails telling me what a great job I am doing. I guess I can't possibly be connected.

No famous people meet me, and any photos of myself with famous people are obviously photoshopped by some fellow - famous people are too busy to waste time on meeting me - I am a nobody, I never was anyone ever.

Yes, I have some friends, I talk, and sometimes they listen, and sometimes I have tea, they talk and I listen. That is all.

Far be from me to claim I am connected. And I am not secretly an Chairmarshall or Chadmiral or a Armchair General, as a matter of fact I am not even an expert like BK or BC. I am not even a strategist of any kind.

But do I have to have a GoI chappa on my arse printed there by an Admiral or an Air Marshal or a General to tell you that BRF's style is not making it friends? - or is that just common sense?

I am an anonymous voice in cyberspace that simply makes sense. For all practical purposes I do not even exist in real life.

Ignore me if it makes you feel better but I can't ignore the way in which people on BR are dissing the Scicom. That is just too wrong even for a permissive person like me to deal with.

 
At 12:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maverick, remember this Uvaacha-"Each of these questions is loaded, with facts or inferences not yet established by evidence to be true and designed to shift the conversation from a dubious premise to a foregone conclusion."
This is exactly what's happening at the Nuke Thread w.r.t the deal.... All evidences (as gleaned from the direction BRF's taking) points out to politically biased or "we need 1000 nukes to take on Uncle's missionaries" type arguments.

The entire premise of "GoI targeting SciComms when they resisted" rests on the shakiest of foundations... if not outright logical fallacies/misinfo/sophistry of that Kaushal-Uvaacha I just quoted. Then this turned to "Turncoat SciComm and Holy Cows/General Patridges (as in the movie The Pentagon Wars) and only hawks like BK are to be trusted"...
What the hell is happening in BRF?

-------
Forget BR... can you please please tell us how the narcotics control/supply/pricing is a major initiative under USG woodwork... and how it actually runs a good part of westen economy. One can understand how drugs/gems work in India with i's major unofficial economy and all but how does this affect an economy like the US?
PS: Is Loretta Napoleoni's book a good source for understanding all this?

-T.W.

 
At 12:21 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Anonymous,

I think one has to differentiate between a hawk and people talking bs.

If people on BR want to be hawks they should know where to point their mouths.

 
At 12:35 PM, Blogger maverick said...

T.W.,

I am aware of what you have posted.

w.r.t drugs, it is the same as anywhere else, the USG controls the price through enforcement of anti-trafficing and anti-money laundering operations.

With the US economy in decline, the number of drug abusers will increase as depressed people willa attempt self-medication with narcotics and alcohol.

This increased demand and the falling dollar could create fluctuations on the street prices of drugs. If those prices fluctuate too much, we will see severe crime waves in the US. The US will therefore ensure that the price of narcotics stays fixed. If the DEAs current numbers are anything to go by, the price of bulk cocaine has risen by about 25%. I think that a higher price will act as a deterent to people thinking about turning to drugs and ensure that workforce remains in better shape. Tragically despite several efforts, the pharma sector has not been able to come up with ways of undoing the damage from drug abuse, so having a lower number of addicts is still better.

Similar campaigns will have to be undertaken to curb heroin and meth, this will be very difficult. We are at the beginnings of a new drug war like the early 80s- the war to control heroin and meth
prices.

 
At 1:42 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"The PM is the holiest of cows. Even the DCH should learn that. They can learn that the easy way or the hard way. The choice is entirely theirs. "

M sir, DCH, I might be (note aside- why do we label anyone into categories - generationally morphed survival instinct?) But please realise and take it at my word, that there is a significant crowd (assuming I am a mango admi and my dispensation falls right at the center of the guassian curve) which would like to idolize our current PM. Just take my word for it. Its a matter of pride for me that MMSji and his intellect places him where he is. OTOH, the only thing I got in return (no response would have worked perfectly well actually) is constant trampling of my sensitivities and utter disregard for any concerns I might have.

"The Indo-US nuclear deal provides the best value for money (i.e. paper dollar bills) that India can get at this time. "

The above does give me hope, in the sense that there's a pure cold calculation dirving this with Indian interests in mind however divergent it is from another section. I think you understand well what I am saying.

Btw, if there the prime driver is indian interests - duh, there is no better place than BR IMHO. I havent seen it as a one opinion place - which they rest sway to. The SNR for pure analysis goes up and down based on the participants. When those spending more time on these and with better insight decide to leave - Noise does tend to take an upper hand. Who would you blame then - the noise(it was always there) or ...

rgds
Pradeep.

 
At 1:51 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Pradeep,

I believe in democracy and free debate. One can disagree with the PM or anyone without being abusive.

I apologize for unintentionally trampling on anything you value.

The DCH is a descriptor not a derisive reference. The DCH are the political powerhouse of the country today.

I can't possibly be expected to support the attack on the Scicom. However much of an unconnected private nobody I am, it quite simply goes against my nature.

 
At 1:53 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Pradeep,

Yes SNR is an issue with everything.

I am trying to distance myself from the unhealthy noise on BRF.

I have no opinion on administrative policy at BRF.

 
At 1:54 PM, Blogger maverick said...

hi T.W.

I have not read the Napoleani book so I cannot comment on it.

 
At 2:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

M,
I did not mean you. I meant MMS.

thx
Pradeep.

 
At 8:15 PM, Anonymous kg said...

Re: Drugs and the general US dollar role:

The Napoleoni book is worth reading. One of *the* fundamental pillars of the Conflict Economy is carefully documented there. Point to note, the money that this economy makes is virtually all (90%+) passed through the New York banking system. And those American banks have become siginificantly dependent on this flow for a large part of their margins. Without the cash flow this provides, they would have been in severe trouble a number of times in the post Reagan era.

They've learned the value of those cash flows. And nothing is going to stop that happening.

Folks, its vital to understand two things: The reserve currency status of the dollar is based on *3* monetary legs: Oil trading in dollars is one. Nations foreign currency reserves is another. But the *primary* strength of the US dollar does *NOT* depend on the foreign exchange reserves of China, Japan, Russia etc. It's the third leg that is vital:

The third leg is the fact that the vast majority of international business-to-business relationships are usually denominated in dollars to act as a hedge for currency fluctuations.

This is *standard* business practice. And completely dwarfs the official foreign exchange reserves of various countries.

It's this use of the dollar, as a *standard* everyday use currency for international business that gives it it's real strength. And it is used *everywhere*. It's the international equivalent of the way *everyone* uses ruppees for *everything* in India. (What else can you use?)

People need to understand this aspect of the dollar. They write "international reserve currency" without groking what that actually means.

It's not until that changes that real damage will be done to the dollar.

Can it change? Well, consider what recently happened to the Indo-Russian Gorshkov deal. It created massive problems in currency value because of the dollars slide. We've now solved that with the Russians although I'm not sure how exactly. Ideally, the new contract should be written in Ruppee/Rouble terms.

If more such problems occur everywhere else - then the dollar would be in trouble. Until then . . . we live with it.

kg.

 
At 8:16 PM, Anonymous kg said...

Anonymous:

I stand by my statement that the current DF is closer to a RAPE, or maybe that should be WIRE (wannabe Indian RAPE Equivalent) forum than the old DF.

In retrospect, the killing of Shivs Evanjehadi Thread was a grevious eror. Rather than having a sandpit to carefully expose the threat that represented to us, and corral the more idiotic postors, it now has, like any Pakee site, religious hatred making its way everywhere. Currently, I'm watching rather bemusedly as Calvins trying quite forlornly to argue against communal mob violence which is outrightly supported by the postors.

As for the "frustrations", as the "reality" . . . Well, QED. And isn't a marvellous and wonderful thing as to how "different" Indians are from Pakees - Not!

BTW: I'm not in Oz anymore. I'm based in Frankfurt/Singapore (the travelling is a real PITA), although currently in Kolkotta trying to get my managers to realise that Globalisation doesn't mean wearing a tie to work while still coming in at 10am, going for lunch at 1pm and then hanging around from 4pm to 6.30 pm.

kg.

 
At 8:26 PM, Anonymous kg said...

Re: The nuclear deal:

There are folks defending what is to me a shameful degree of stupidity in the DFs attack on the Scicom. Can any of you folks describe the difference between the DFs attitude to the deal and Ajai Shuklas attitude to the Arjun? What about the difference between the DDM's attitude to the Mig 21s? Admiral N and his famous article against the LCA?

It was the old DF that carefully analysed those issues and took on the "received" wisdom while everyone else mercilessly castigated GoI, the IAF, the DRDO etc.

Today, the DF has joined with the likes of Prafool, Roy, Seema Musharrafa, the general Lefties, the NPAs, the Commies, the Chinese and everyone else whom the old DF stood against with the vacuous excuse that one has to look at the message and not the messenger.

I know no one of any importance in Dilli and am certainly of no importance myself. Furthermore, the DF is a private forum and they can do as they please. So I speak only for myself when I say I find whats happening there to be absolutley shameful and disgusting.

As for the actual deal itself, you'll note that there has been no analysis whatsoever of the impact of the lefts attitude forcing us towards the EurAsian amalgamation currently being promoted by the Russians and the Chinese with the Iranians as a junior partner, nor for that matter, any real understanding of what the first "fuel war" of the 21st century, Iraq, means to our long term security. Note, for example, Aloks point above, about protecting a single planeload of fuel versus a stream of tankers.

Nothing at all along these lines at the DF. Nothing other than a huge amount of abuse being hurled at GoI, MMS, the Scicom, etc, with everyone being "traitors" except of course, for the Lefties, the Commies, the Prafools, the NPAs, the joyous Pakees, the Chinese and the good folk of the DF.

Well, looking at the company the DF keeps these days . . . lovely and something to be really proud of isn't it?

kg.

 
At 12:21 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi m
Kindly enlighten me. Some questions. It will be great if you cold answer them
1)Will formation of India-Russia-Iran Gas cartel help us in any way? Will such a triangle help us?

2)Will this deal mean that we will join US in its strategy of breakup of mesapotamia? How will break up of Iraq help us?

3)Isn't it the fact that the whomsoever pays us more, we will end up in having an alliance with them? For ex: US can pay us more, atleast it can pay us the nuclear deal which Russia cannot. That's why aren't we drifting into America's orbit?

4)By 2020, India's enery requirement will be very high. Our country will be very strong than ever before.Our military,economy will be manifold times strong that it is now. Isn't it true that by 2020, all those nations (in Asia) who are in America's orbit now, will be in India's orbit! We can work towrds that. This nuclear deal will facilitate that if we can carefully manage Unkil.

5)There was a time when we used to import Heavy water.In fact in 1979 when were very short of heavy water, Moraji Desai begged our friend Russia. But the Russian showed us the middle finger.Subsequently we became a heavy water exporting nation so much so that even USA imports from us. Do you visualise a situation where USA can become dependent on India for nuclear power plants?

6)What if thanks to the nuclear deal, we starting expoorting nuclear plants to Vietnam and other south east asian nations. What are your thoughts of doing a pakistan to china and do the same by building a string of pearls around china

 
At 12:26 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

7) One more questions m, though we criticise unkil so much, many of us do not realise that the Unkil shoulder's plenty of international responsibilites/commitments. It shoulder's plenty a nations economy. Forget about shouldering world's responsibilites that is a must for any big power, why don't we participate in the economic reconstruction/national build of south asian nation so that all those nations will stop drifting from China's orbit. Our stake in nation building activities in many of the south asian nation is negligible.

 
At 12:56 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yet another ancient ex DF member here. It is nice to see some of the saner ones of the DF past showing up in the comments here.

I believe the current shape of things in the DF was implicit in the old one, except that the saner and more sensible lot were in sufficient force to control the discourse and reduce the noise. I guess all good things come to an end, and the utility of a forum with the character of the DF is mostly past. Hence the nuisance attacks.

W.r.t the current political dispensation, I personally have many dislikes and quibbles with current domestic policies, but then this is the reality of govt in India; I have never been satisfied with govt policy, and am invariably downright annoyed with some major policy initiative or the other. This is, I think, a state natural to politics and government in a country so difficult and complex as India.

However, I have also noticed generally that vital issues of national security and foreign policy are generally matters which are decided with an underlying political consensus, which cuts across party lines. The current nuclear deal is a clear example of such a general consensus, with the exception that the left parties are trying to play spoilsport. In the past this was not a real issue, because they never really had significant power, or even if they did, were neutralized by careful political maneuvering, like what the Late Sri Rao did. It seems to me that 1) they are relatively new to the responsibilities of power, and
2) have elements which may answer to masters outside the country, and who are in an unusually influential position.

I think that the noise coming out of the DF simply amplifies this game of spoilsport, at least among people who would previously take consensus opinion on the DF with some seriousness. If the DF wishes to remain relevant and respectable, I would think that this is not a particularly good development. To me, as a former member, it is painful to think that I had some association with the DF previously, especially given the ever present and unpleasant communally insensitive and belligerant undercurrent that always existed in the DF and that has come to the fore now.

Faizi.

 
At 4:27 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

dear kg and maverick

are you guys so in love with goi to even miss out on the simple fact that the attacks on scicom started from "high up"

seriously the previous anon is right you guys despite all your armchair navel gazing and pretending to be listening to other ppl over tea have ZERO connections to the reality in india

now u r claiming brf started yelling at scicom for no reason

lol, lol, lol

kg

shukla was reporting what he was told by a segment of the army + his own hatred of the drdo

but he was right to some degree but wrong in the way he expressed it

bk does not hate the scicom he is a hawk who wants maximum boom

but dont ignore him

dont be like commiez ignore whomever u think is bad

brf not against the scicomm but is going by the media

some of the ppl posting on thi blog also attacked the scicom when deal was opposed based on what media wrote

who fed all lines to the media?

kg, what u consider "bat crazy religious hatred" will only become pakee when xtians and muslims get killed for zero reason

brf ppl are venting not acting

and they are venting beczo they have been denied freedm of expreszion by you secular mohtarmas who decide what they can speak and what they cant

u say calvin is a honest poster

no, he is typical of the problem

bans anyone who critixizes minority appeasement and u think that is good and passes it off as unbiased

and then u say why are ppl angry

dear kg, pls be in frankfurt or esingapore but hindus in india are mad with xtian missionaries and ppl like calvin who refuse to acknoqwledge thw problem and instead blame others

at least u admit there is an ej problem

each time discussion comes ip a hand waving at EJs but no acknowledgement of how indian xtian orgs are supporting the EJs

nothing personal but pls consider that it may be u who are acting like the RAPE since the rape only wonder why the unwashed hate them but zero care about how they make the unwashed angry

but forget all this

u seriously think the goi is a sacred cow

sorry sacred cow is india

not goi

which has used india to hide behind to disguise acts by political parties

dear maverick i can say that evn after all your words u guy dont know the reality of scicom vs goi conflict

both side have skeleton to hide

if u were even remotely well connected u wud have known this

i will go after goi because they are led by politicians who deny their haddi kha daancha at expense of nation

if you think angry @ manmoorkh singh is bad on BRF then all it shows is that u r very very immature

need of the hour is for goi to be more honest with deal opponents and support scicom not use latter as a problem and deny bjp/nda transparency

btw, apj abdul kalam has also spoken against the deal

just for u to now consider how badly out of touch u guys are wit india

so who is rape ? u or the indians

ur the ones abroad and "globalizing". the reality is happening in india

 
At 4:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Guys

Amazing discussion here...what is DF??

Thanks
Vivek

 
At 6:15 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Anonymous,

I view the nuclear deal with the US (read NSG) as a stepping stone to further negotiations on the issue of carbon fuels like natural gas.

The US intends to price fix the natural gas market in the same way it did the oil market. From an Indian perspective, in the long term we need natural gas to conserve wood resources. So we need gas too, it is simply a question of setting up a framework for negotiations with the rest of the world.

I do not see any specific gain for us from the break up of Iraq.

Our drift into America's orbit is from the rapid growth in US-India trade in the last decade and the resulting forex surplus. This drives us towards our engagement with the US.

If we cannot secure the desired energy resources by the end of the year. The Government will have to step in and regulate consumption of energy resources. This will slow growth down. India's orbit is defined by its ability to project a high growth rate and a fast and high return on investments. This is what is bringing FIIs to our door today. If you want that to continue, you have to get a hold of more energy resources.

Bottom line, if we can get Uranium for a few of the nuclear power plants next year. Then we can divert power from coal to increase domestic Uranium production and still maintain the growth rate. If we don't get Uranium next year, then we will still divert coal to increased production of local Uranium, but then the growth rate will suffer.

Heavy water production is not as energy intensive as extracting Uranium from poor quality ores.

I think India would love to be an exporter of nuclear power plants. I don't mind exporting nuclear power plants to Pakistan or China for that matter, as long as IAEA safeguards are in place, I can't see the harm in exporting them to anyone.

Economically rebuilding South Asia can be considered only after India's own growth has been secured. Why just south asia, India can play a role in rebuilding and boosting the global nuclear industry. India is perhaps the only english speaking country that still trains people that know how to make nuclear power plants. The last class to graduate with a degree in nuclear plant design in the US was some 30 years ago.

 
At 7:23 AM, Anonymous xyz said...

It looks likely that some administrators on df are coordinating the "drones". The posting patterns on contentious issues point towards that conclusion. At the very least there is tacit encouragement. Rather sad state of affairs.

The relevance of df as a place to stop by has declined dramatically. Note that the visitors from Langley or Vauxhall Cross no longer deem it necessary to influence the discourse there. Probably not considered relevant any longer as a place that shapes opinion. It has been reduced to a place to be mined for the occasional nugget of information and a venting forum.

 
At 7:38 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Faizi,

I offer the following comments about the current state of politics in India.

Indian politics is a delicate equilibrium between the forces of "majoritarianism" and "minoritarianism".

By that I mean the political classes consist of two groups of people:

1) people who think that *large* (majority) numbers of people should come together and make a loud political racket and

2) people who think that *small* numbers of people should come together and make a political racket.

Majoritarianism requires the use wide global agendas. Minoritarianism requires the use of local ideologies and narrow identity constructs. Both these groups have to occupy a certain amount of political space and a balance has to exist for India to function. Given the situation of India with every community essentially being a minority, the forces of minoritarianism have to eventually dominate.

Today the NDA/Center Right is the vehicle for the forces of "majoritarianism" and the UPA/Left is the vehicle for the forces of "minoritarianism". This identification is not constant and could change in the future as it did in the past. The political fashion may change as was witnessed during the Vajpayee PMO.

However it is not possible to shift the division of labour over any meaningful timescale and we have to live with it.

Gujurat currently is the centre stage on the Indian political drama and once Gujurat has rendered its verdict, the necessary political realignments will occure to empahsize the consensus on national security issues.

BRF seems to be seized by Gujurat election fever. I see no reason why it should not be, but I don't see the need to aim politically driven insults at the Scicom. Gujurat can be won or lost without dragging the Scicom into it.

If people are keen to shake money out of their foreign friends, they can do so without bringing the Scicom into their publicity material. I told people this in 1998 also, when certain groups became convinced that attacking the Scicom was the key to securing funding from abroad. I am telling those on BRF who are doing this political hatchet job right now, the exact same thing.

Your politics is your politics - leave the Scicom out of it.

 
At 7:57 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello Anonymous,

There is a difference between a retired DAE officer commenting on the Scicom's affairs and a random person venting on BRF.

You do not seem to be sensitive to that difference, so let me make it obvious to you.

No "high up" has attacked the Scicom.

The "high ups" have simply expressed concerns over separation plan, the inspections and the fuel guarentee issue. These are all things that the Scicom has already paid attention to.

When a "high up" makes his or her opinion known, they do so to enlighten and moderate the debate on key national issues. This is part of their duty as major participants in the debate.

Unfortuantely the way the debate is shaped right now by people with a five second attention span - everything is being seen as a criticism by over motivated people.

What people like you seem to miss is that the Scicom addresses these concerns long before they enter the public debate. So while the public thinks that a concern has yet to be addressed, the Scicom has already moved to deal with the issue.

The Scicom's recommendations or the GoI's actions obviously cannot be made public for national security reasons.

One would have thought that others on BRF would instantly get that, but a greater number seem to have missed it and are turning against the Scicom itself all based on the words on one person, whose perspective - perhaps unique - is beyond any testability. That it agrees with MV Ramana's point of view, well I guess that must be a coincidence.

I have absolutely no connections to anyone. But do I need to be connected to tell you that this is not the right way of doing things?

President Kalam has not spoken against the deal. Nothing that President Kalam has said in any way goes against the GoI's position.

Don't put words in his mouth. I assure you he *will* *not* like it.

Nuclear security and mass conversions by evangelicals are unrelated problems.

 
At 8:09 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

Does everyone understand what I am saying?

The "high ups" are simply enlightening the rest of the world about the positions they took in a debate which has already concluded.

The concerns they raised have already been considered by competent authorities.

The public tamasha over their comments is more a result of people who want to see a big fight on the national stage than due to any real disagreement over operationalisation issues.

In a meeting with a "Grand NPA" about a year or so ago I told him to keep the noise down in the US. I warned him that if they kept making a really loud racket in the US, there would be a corresponding racket in India and there would be absolutely no guarentees that the situation could be managed at our end.

Tragically he ignored my advice to steer clear of using CIA/SD developed communication channels for spouting NPA personal agenda.

I am still stuck dumb by the fact that despite several such warnings through various channels, the NPA in the US took no care to keep CNDP and DSF members out of their discussions or that NPA did not stop giving interviews to Indian news channels or that no effort was made to keep US media affiliates in check via the usual mechanisms.

It makes me suspect that the NPA were keen on implementing a bipolar strategy to fish out information in the debate.

 
At 10:09 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

maverick, you are so out of touch with what happened that it is a joke

its a fact that a significant clique in pmo/ goi was angry at scicom for pouring cold strategic water on their wunderful nuklear deal

ppl like pki and other ex dae heads were never consulted in depth and were ignored.

ak was taken for granted. only when my way or the highway BS became too much did the scicom use the media especially the left oriented channels to express their displeasure. uncles puppets like express, hindustan times and toi were firmly against scicom

in such a situation only one left were the leftist and anti uncle channels such as hindu, frontline, asian ages mustafa and others who brought up the scicom

then the constables advisors were forced to deal with them

ppl like ak in establishment have also not done their entire duty

they slept at the wheel till the issue escalated and let mining stagnate

and of course there are the issues of 1998

you guys need to tone down your jingoism and blind support of the goi whilst claiming it is brf thast is attacking the scicom when most of the damage to scicom was done by the great gois current political masters

you may want to send this very proud message that goi is all one on this matter - its not

thats all i'll say

stop venting on brf, its a stupid bulettin board dammit not some research org and admit that your goi heroes were wrong and all parties are not equal

the constable in power is still cut up over religious reasons and does not like the NDA at all

many minority ppl are like that and are insecure about the hindu right wing

so, he didnt take the bjp into confidence and kept them at an arms lenght

ignored the scicom because he was least bothered about security and the latter has its own issues becz of which it cant confront the govt

and now he says wtf why is everyone against the deal

and ur blaming the left

i say thank the left, for once those parasites did something useful and prevented this naive buffoon from a disaster

 
At 10:17 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nuclear security and mass conversions by evangelicals are unrelated problems.

who says they are?

if india does become the us's puppet with maino parivar in power the above is a problem

you guys may be so moderately enlightened that bringing up religious issues is dirty, its rape and bat crazy hatred and communally insensitive

but guys as a voter i will consider it when i vote

i want energy security but i also dont like trading my way of life for ej domination or trust a govt tht has constantly lied

have you been to andhra recenlt
ej churches in every corner converting the daleets..

so do i trust maino and constable when i vote or on national security? no i dont

its upto them to demonstrate honesty by engaging with all groups but they take digs at scicom, they accuse bjp of being fascists and holocaust, stage the tehelka issue before the election and all sorts of dubious us groups are npow in india about lower caste oppreassion and what not

and goi is a sacred cow

even when run by ppl who think sacred cows are idolatrous

 
At 11:00 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Anonymous,

I think you are creating utterly imaginary stories of friction between the scicom and the PMO.

This is an exceedingly bizarre view, high on masala and low on truth.

The Scicom was asked to provide scientific consultancy on the deal and the PMO worked on the political aspects. The PMO simply put the two parts together.

Everyone who mattered was consulted. PKI et al.., their views were known and their concerns factored into the Scicom's assessment. Taking PKI's statements out of context is a regular past time at Sandia.

I didn't realise BRF and Sandia were on the same page lately.

The Scicom does not use the Hindu as an outlet for its views. The Hindu is a Non-Communist Left publication. We all know who bankrolls those guys.

Uranium mining was not undermined because of DAE negligence. It was undermined because successive governments could not justify the diversion of power resources from economic growth to mining poor grade Uranium ore. The strategic needs for Uranium were not that overbearing in an age when the Oil price was $5 per barrel and we got free oil for stale rice from Saddam.

You want to join SANL in its fantasies about disrupting the Indian nuclear chain of command by creating fissures between the PMO and the Scicom... you are free to do so... but that does not reflect the reality of the situation.

Remember one thing miyan, we hindustanis have infinite memories.

Yes Hindu religious groups are currently emerging as the vehicle for a display of majoritarianism and its failures. It is no different from Islam in the Pakistani context. You might even say that objective is to make the gullible Hindus into a vote bank like the gullible Muslims once were. This sort of effort will suffer the fate of its Pakistani counterpart. That is written into the lines of fate.

 
At 11:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I now sense winds of change in the Nuke Thread; some of those virulent newbies/wannabes/subverters are now hoping that the BJP won't cop out in the last minute and leave it's online warriors with an egg on their faces... some are in outright denial mode clutching at straws and finally some are going batty with ack thoo and pitthu or crying Shvaanachitta.

The same folks who once derided Kgoan when he spoke of the right miffed at being left out are now implying the same thing.... The spins that are coming out on the messengers' talks with the opposition and "initiative to open contacts b/w USG and NDA (actual representatives of the sons of the soil)through NRIs" are hilarious.

PS:
I now have strong reasons to believe that some senior members of the DF has been compromised into serving the interests of a political force (by slow and steady conditioning/funding). But I guess I shall mail you about that rather than spell it out here.

T.W.

 
At 12:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

this anonymous vs anonymous stuff is difficult to follow ... why not put your name down at the end of the post?

just a couple of days ago I commented that I was thankful for having found a decent place to post ... since then, the tamasha type of posts have started surfacing here as well...

what's up? ... some of us have issues with DF admin and made a few comments ... that was that ... why has this blown up into an "us vs them"? ... it is so pointless that it is not even worth pointing out ...

Mr. Anonynous (one of many or maybe same),

it is especially non-Indian to abuse your host (maverick) without even writing down your name ... you seem to know him from before (and also kg), so why not just say your peace rather than post in the fashion that you have adopted?

(accusing others of being out of touch with India takes the cake ... )

Alok_N

 
At 2:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maverick,
Just to clarify, I dont disagree with anything important in what you have to say, and am in complete agreement w.r.t attacks on the sci-com and the reprehensible turn that things have take on BRF. I am sure you have probably guessed that this is the case. I think that the second comment on this thread that you made agrees with my thinking on the question of the nuclear deal.

Faizi

 
At 3:35 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

alokn

my name isnt important and honestly i havent known kg much

and i am not goint ot reguster onblogger get a mail account and whatnot so whats the pnt?

just seen his posts vs some british guy on the forum who is no longer there

its not like anyone here is using their real name so who cares

let it be clear i am not abusing maverick i still dont know who he is after reading this whole page and am not sure to be honest BUT IT DOESNT MATTER WHO HE IS OR WHO I AM

the point is that you guys can do more than be a bunch of whiners whining about forum because the forum is using media reports to make its opinions

WHEN IT DOESNT MATTER

so u have issues with the forum go fight there man

instead u have commnts

ppl on forum are bat crazy religious haters

ppl on forum are antipatriots who hate goi and scicom

bk is a fool

dont criticize scicom because it is anti goi (when it was goi which started the drama)

and yes alok some guys are out of touch with india because the opinions expressed are so different from what unwashed disreputable types are saying that it shud be obvious

so who is the rape and elite and who is the common man

thats all i am saying

temper the zeal to represent goi or take offcen at forums to get at what bk / bjp/ others are really saying

it is desparation when scicom uses left asd a vehicle to get message across

this deal may not be all that its hyped to be

thats all

 
At 3:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Anonymous,I think you are creating utterly imaginary stories of friction between the scicom and the PMO. This is an exceedingly bizarre view, high on masala and low on truth. The Scicom was asked to provide scientific consultancy on the deal and the PMO worked on the political aspects. The PMO simply put the two parts together.
Everyone who mattered was consulted. PKI et al.., their views were known and their concerns factored into the Scicom's assessment. Taking PKI's statements out of context is a regular past time at Sandia. I didn't realise BRF and Sandia were on the same page lately.The Scicom does not use the Hindu as an outlet for its views. The Hindu is a Non-Communist Left publication. We all know who bankrolls those guys.


yes maverick yes, keep believing that if you must

reality is that comments were made, offence was taken and the scicom put its head up and spoke up

this has nothing to do with the chain of command of n systems

it has everything to do with a goi led by a leader who does not know how to pull all his constrituents along being shown that he made a mistake

Yes Hindu religious groups are currently emerging as the vehicle for a display of majoritarianism and its failures. It is no different from Islam in the Pakistani context. You might even say that objective is to make the gullible Hindus into a vote bank like the gullible Muslims once were. This sort of effort will suffer the fate of its Pakistani counterpart. That is written into the lines of fate

more equal equal
sorry but hindus arent gullible . well not as mcuh as they used to be

by the time majoritiarianism or whatever u call it dissipates more and more would have been done and the lines drawn
all thanks to constable singh and his ilk who keep pushing the conflict ahead

thats the sad part the more you guys deny that there is a real sense of outrage at the acts of the left and congress and the so called secular parties the more the right gets support

today its one modi which is controversial tomorrow it will be two and then three and then four

then please sit and tell urself that its dissipating and that its all for the best

 
At 3:52 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Anonymous,

Evangelical activism has nothing to do with the UPA.

Evangelical activism has been picking up in India for the last 10 years as American exposure to India has been increasing. You may only be noticing it today because they opened an office in front of your house today. They have been around for a while now.

GoI can't give Evangelicals permission to carry out mass conversions in India - no one person can do that.

Soniaji is a Roman Catholic. Evangelicals are an American phenomenon and if you go into the evangelical parts of the US, you will find there is a lot of intense anti-Catholic sentiment in the US. Evangelical preachers routinely advocate that non-believers and misbelievers (i.e. people who do not belong to their particular sect) will all go to hell. It is part of their sales pitch.

Soniaji does not mix her religious beliefs with national politics. Her Christian roots are more a device for non-Indian publicity machines use for personal gain - as far as I am concerned she is as Indian as Indian gets.

 
At 4:10 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello Anonymous,

No GoI leader has been able to pull all the constitutents along in our history. We have always had an opposition.

The criticism of the Scicom has traditionally come from vested interest groups like the NPA.

It is the sudden congruence between the NPA and the BRF crowd that I am reacting to.

Pakistan demonstrates what happens when religion is used as a vehicle for majoritarianism.

Identity based polarisation is a tool to secure power. The word "gullible" in my usage, describes those unwilling to accept this.

It is fine to use polarisation as a tool to secure local political climates, it is not acceptable to see to see it be anything more than a show on the national stage.

Hi T. W.

This breed of hyper-reactive types are a bunch of perpetual ingrates.

They turned on me when I stood by PM A B Vajpayee after the Gujurat crisis in 2002. They turned on me when I supported Advaniji's speech in Karachi. I guess they expected me to start supporting Togadia.

They are basically no different from Arundhati and company - perpetually whining.

I am sure they have some choice words reserved for Advaniji when he makes his decision public.

For these hyper-reactive types, running their mouth off is more important than exercising their brains.

 
At 8:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hi anon's,m,kg,
Correct me if I am wrong.Evangelical activity has been going on for some time, but as you say it is not right for individual citizens to chatter like this in public, or pick up a hockey stick for a public song and dance tamasha. It is govt. prerogative to act against these groups. GOI may as well arm twist them in private behind closed doors. Frustration arises when GOI doesn't.For example in Tirupathi YSR encouraged ..... but public pressure forced him to change his decision. But in the end I agree that it is not good for netizens to publicly display such violent emotions. That was an analysis as to why things have gone wrong. Your thoughts are welcome.
P.S - Correct me if I am wrong if it is a rant then as well delete it.

 
At 8:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hi m,
If you do not mind kindly can you post what APJ has said about it recently. I am unable to find a link in google.

 
At 9:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"This breed of hyper-reactive types are a bunch of perpetual ingrates.

They turned on me when I stood by PM A B Vajpayee after the Gujurat crisis in 2002. They turned on me when I supported Advaniji's speech in Karachi. I guess they expected me to start supporting Togadia.

They are basically no different from Arundhati and company - perpetually whining.

I am sure they have some choice words reserved for Advaniji when he makes his decision public.

For these hyper-reactive types, running their mouth off is more important than exercising their brains."

Jeez M, what has happened to you. This is bad.

Pls let this go and get back to posting more of your analysis. For one, your and others insights into the NPA are illuminating. They can out spend us, they cant out chankian us. What next from them. Any more on that?

thanks.
Pradeep.

 
At 10:36 PM, Anonymous cyclone nation said...

m,
A post on Pakistan is long overdue.

cn

 
At 11:21 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Guys,
All those who criticise MMS govt, think, the innumerable problems that our country faces like never before.
1) China is rapidly modernising its defence in Tibet, encircling our country from Maldives,Sri Lanka,Burma,Nepal,Pakistan...
2) The usual pakistan problem with whom we have negotiate kashmir.
3)We face a disintegrating neighbourhood in form of Iraq coupled with a prospect of attack on Iran
4)There is a serious energy crisis which the govt. has to grapple with
5)The internal security situation looks bleak with naxals operating in the hinterlands, kashmiri rebels and militants operating on our borders.
6)All this with the usual droughts,floods....
One must pity the MMS govt. for having to face so many challenges!!

 
At 1:15 AM, Anonymous s.venkat said...

Maverick,
you are really clever.You use the metaphor of guru-sishya,the indian ideal of consensus,you hint at karma yoga(while explicitly mentioning buddha and 'possibly'sankara.You are an avowed gandhian.Which means you have a grip on reality.

The consensus that was possible between 1950s and 1990s was based on a certain social dynamic.While welcoming inevitable change,we would still like to faithful (to the extent possible )to the ideal.

These minoritarian groups,which you claim are the majority(i am not so sure of that),will they be anatogonistic to those fundamental ideals if they continue in their present trajectory?A Guru has to be replaced by another guru for the next generation.It has to be one of the sishyas.He may not be as brilliant,but he must be able to continue the tradition.Will the majority of the minoritarian groups allow that?

Honestly,after reading your blog,i am no longer interested in such issues.Because there are persons like ....to take care.Yet because of my vasanas,i couldn't resist the fling.Thank you.

 
At 6:00 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello Anonymous,

The GoI does not regulate religious activities in India.

The line is drawn at mass conversions because of the consensus position of the Indian religious leadership.

Organised religion is a self regulating system in India.

The GoI has entered places to worship to prevent criminalisation of a religious establishment, but apart from that the GoI sees religion as a personal matter. As long as no religious group carries out criminal activities, the GoI has no basis in law to intervene in their activities.

Currently some Hindu religious groups are keen on bringing marginalised populations like tribals in rural India into the political mainstream through a policy of religious indoctrination.

Hindu groups are not alone in this. Christian, Muslim and Buddhist groups have also pursued this approach and in the past isolated instances have occured where large numbers of people belonging to a specific tribe or subtribe have allegedly switched religious loyalties.

Given the large percentage of India's population that is marginalised in the rural areas. There is a lot of pressure on religious workers involved in this and competition and conflicts between religious orders are common. Another pattern that is visible is that of indoctrination groups copying each others tactics.

As witnessed in Gujurat most recently, this has created a potentially dangerous situation where social anxieties in these marginal populations can turn themselves into religious hatred.

Similarly a number of communist groups are conducting indoctrination in parts of eastern India. There too similar patterns are observed though the conflicts are a little more subdued, there is less rioting and more high intensity crime and targetting of state officials.

Controlling the beast of communalism while ensuring that marginalised populations gain political representation is a difficult task at best.

And I think this sense of overcompetitiveness among the groups doing this sort of thing does not help.

The younger workers in these organisations are more susceptible to the perils of excessive indoctrination - the older people by contrast have leart through blood toil and tears - that stupidity has only one consequence.

 
At 6:19 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Pradeep,

I am simply saying it like it is.

I find this way of talking about the Scicom unacceptable.

That is all.

S Venkat,

I feel the attempt to bring such large numbers of hitherto marginalised populations into the mainstream is an experiment. The numbers alone put it outside of anything in our known history. We are simultaneously trying to bring women, under represented religious, ethnic and social groups, into a political mainstream.

I was having tea and biscuits at a function recently and I ended up speaking to an officer of the Indian Postal Service and he said something that stuck in my mind: "Population is not going to be a problem - it is a problem". Not long after that I met a member of the forestry service and he said "how are we going to accomodate so many people on such a small piece of land?". After that I spoke with a lady from the Planning Commission and I asked her "with so many new RR and CRP battalions being raised every year, how are we going pay out so many pensions in thirty years time?" and she simply shrugged.

I honestly do not know if this is possible at all, but we are going to attempt it. Paraphrasing the words of J B S Haldane, we in India, are already the world that is going to be tomorrow. India is the viswarupa itself, the diversity of people - the multiplicity of narratives. At least that is how I see it, all my loyalty to Prince Suyodhan nonwithstanding.

You are correct that the consensus mechanisms of old will not endure into the future. That is what I am alluding to - the appearance of new consensus building mechanisms. I do not take false comfort of knowing something worked ages ago.

I feel every Guru that emerges these days faces more challenges than his/her predecessor. The demands on the quality of leadership grow ever higher. Perhaps it is here that the numbers go in our favour? who can say for sure?

I am a perpetual shishya, a permanent mureed, the eternal disciple.

In the end there is only desire? might as well indulge it.

 
At 6:22 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear all,

As CN has suggested there are some events in Pakistan I would like to talk about and also I want to talk about the nature of testing things as I feel some subtle points are being missed by some of the commentators.

I will post on these today or tomorrow.

Please feel free to continue this discussion there. I think 120 odd replies is proving difficult to scroll through so a new post is well overdue.

Apologies for my tardiness.
Maverick

 
At 8:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Evangelical activism has nothing to do with the UPA.

Evangelical activism has been picking up in India for the last 10 years as American exposure to India has been increasing. You may only be noticing it today because they opened an office in front of your house today. They have been around for a while now.

GoI can't give Evangelicals permission to carry out mass conversions in India - no one person can do that.

Soniaji is a Roman Catholic. Evangelicals are an American phenomenon and if you go into the evangelical parts of the US, you will find there is a lot of intense anti-Catholic sentiment in the US. Evangelical preachers routinely advocate that non-believers and misbelievers (i.e. people who do not belong to their particular sect) will all go to hell. It is part of their sales pitch.

Soniaji does not mix her religious beliefs with national politics. Her Christian roots are more a device for non-Indian publicity machines use for personal gain - as far as I am concerned she is as Indian as Indian gets.


and you claim to be a serious guy maverick good jokes man good jokes

your beloved soniaji is a catholic, so are john dayal and many other ej types

they were the ones who started all the bs about daleeets and campaigned in the us

mata maino is also the force behind y samuel reddys ej behaviour in andrha pradesh

get over ur reflexive antiamericanism and mata maino worship to look at the reality maverick

its not just 10/40 and baptist but her fairandloveliness as well

yeah she is indian 400%

so was jinnah and so was zia

i am sure many other examples can be found of true indians

your sense of jokes is beyond belief when u claim that upa has nothing to do with evangelicals

 
At 9:01 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The GoI does not regulate religious activities in India.

The line is drawn at mass conversions because of the consensus position of the Indian religious leadership.

Organised religion is a self regulating system in India.

The GoI has entered places to worship to prevent criminalisation of a religious establishment, but apart from that the GoI sees religion as a personal matter. As long as no religious group carries out criminal activities, the GoI has no basis in law to intervene in their activities.


boss pls educate urself about india before going on like this using high funda language

ur beloeved upa politicans have attended many mass conversion rallies

they claimed that gujarat was punished by earthquake for going against christ

goi doesnt regulate religos activities yaaa which is why every temple org has a fat IAs appointee sitting there

 
At 9:12 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The criticism of the Scicom has traditionally come from vested interest groups like the NPA.

yah makes everyone wonder when the pmo themselves criticze scicom and give media a free hand to attack scicom

It is the sudden congruence between the NPA and the BRF crowd that I am reacting to.

of course brf is bad for reACTING to media report

but who fed media

no wait it cant be anyone in goi
no no no that is not possible


Pakistan demonstrates what happens when religion is used as a vehicle for majoritarianism.

pakistan demonstrates the beauty of islam

the same nice religion cum social order that has achieved many nice thing in india

like mass murder

Identity based polarisation is a tool to secure power. The word "gullible" in my usage, describes those unwilling to accept this.

identity based politics by hindus is necessary evil to prevent secoolar types like your soniaji from walking over dirty idol worshipping hindu

It is fine to use polarisation as a tool to secure local political climates, it is not acceptable to see to see it be anything more than a show on the national stage.

ya sure its very bad
but it was ok when upa and congress play caste card
when they play minority card

then its all ok

"This breed of hyper-reactive types are a bunch of perpetual ingrates.

They turned on me when I stood by PM A B Vajpayee after the Gujurat crisis in 2002. They turned on me when I supported Advaniji's speech in Karachi. I guess they expected me to start supporting Togadia.

They are basically no different from Arundhati and company - perpetually whining.

I am sure they have some choice words reserved for Advaniji when he makes his decision public.

For these hyper-reactive types, running their mouth off is more important than exercising their brains."


perhaps hyper reacive types is reacting coz theyare ones who face bomb blasts and ur beloved upas missionaries and r angry

no maverick we dont want u to not support india

but do ut realze india is not goi alone because goi can be run by politicians who dont have best interets of india at heart

dissent is also patriotims when some in goi betrays its own

 
At 9:20 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Guys,
All those who criticise MMS govt, think, the innumerable problems that our country faces like never before.


thank you MMS govt for worsening indias situation even more

happy?


1) China is rapidly modernising its defence in Tibet, encircling our country from Maldives,Sri Lanka,Burma,Nepal,Pakistan...

and it took the nda to blow n in 1998

whereas mms govt went slow on mining and is now crying sky is falling because there is no fuel


2) The usual pakistan problem with whom we have negotiate kashmir.

yA poor MMS with so much secirity like other politicians

what about all the other bomb blasts ...wait..peace process



3)We face a disintegrating neighbourhood in form of Iraq coupled with a prospect of attack on Iran

dont give a dam sorry


4)There is a serious energy crisis which the govt. has to grapple with

on which their achievements are zero
but the n deal will solve evrything


5)The internal security situation looks bleak with naxals operating in the hinterlands, kashmiri rebels and militants operating on our borders.

ya and mms telling andhra police to not harass minorities
crying over haneefs arrest
shivrtaj patil saying no probs with beedee inflitration

we are very happy with MMS


6)All this with the usual droughts,floods....
One must pity the MMS govt. for having to face so many challenges!!


ya poor them

OR POOR INDIANS TO FACE SO MUCH WITH SUCH INCOMPETENT FOOLS RUNNING SHOW

 
At 9:32 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Anonymous,

There is no connection between the UPA Chairperson and John Dayal.

That is a connection you have concieved ... shall we say.. somewhat immaculately.

UPA officer bearers have not attended any mass conversions anymore than NDA officebearers have attended reconversion rallies. This kind of this is media spin - it does not really happen.

Are there UPA and NDA workers who work as part of prosletysing type groups? most certainly but that is matter of their personal faith - it is not something I can comment on. The leadership is above this kind of thing.

If you start holding the leadership responsible for everything that some random person claiming to work for the party does, then by that logic Modiji could be accused of participating in every murder carried out by the Babu Bajrangi types. So clearly that is not a sane way of thinking.

Polarisation at the local level is an accepted electoral strategy. Polarisation without clear objectives at the national level is not particularly useful.

I am not reflexively anti-American.

I am simply pragmatic. There are things America will do to protect itself and there are things that India will do to protect itself. It is important to recognise these when then they happen.

I am neither pro-Soniaji nor anti-Soniaji.

I have no problem with idol worship but I don't make idol worship the focus of my national thinking. If you want to do that is fine too.

You are conflating what a bunch of media junkies in New Delhi talk with actual PMO policy. There is no connection between these groups. The media junkies are feeding the media and BRF is falling for their rubbish and wasting time running around in circles.

I am not about to let a bunch of media managers decide what is right for me. I trust the Scicom and PMO. I do not approve of people who speak ill of them.

If you want to join Achin Vanaik and company, you should feel free, but then you must realise they are more Americarakshaks than Bharatrakshaks.

 
At 9:40 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Anonymous,

The hyperreactive types are more keen to believe that India is in perpetual danger and whine about it than really do anything of value to redress a real challenge.

BRF is falling under their sway and becoming a security sphere equivalent of the kind of chatterati garbage we see in Outlook or used to see in the Illustrated Weekly.

It is no surprise with such a philosophy, the only definition of patriotism that the hyperreactive types can agree upon involves dissing the politicians and their national leaders continuously.

That enlightened self-interest part of patriotism is ofcourse conveniently ignored.

Maybe it is just the fact that I have seen too many burnt and dismembered bodies and dead children in my time to be impressed by claims of facing "bombs" and "bullets". I know too many people who have actually sacrificed their lives for the country and they never whine like you do.

So forgive me - this does not work on me - you should really save all this for someone who lives in another country and has never seen India before. Try this on those NRIs I am sure they will buy into stories of your sacrifices.

 
At 9:46 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Anonymous,

The GoI assists in the management of temple trusts. The same way as the local goverment runs special bus services to key temples and mosques or offers a Haj subsidy. It is a public service to discourage criminalisation not a control mechanism.

Boss, you are using all the standard argument that my relatives who think they are "Hindu revivalists" use. I know all the tricks and I have had these conversations over several years with them, you save it for someone else.

FYI my grandfather was Guruji's classmate and after Nathuram did what he did, our house and family was targetted by irate mobs despite the fact that we had nothing to do with it. A family member went to Ayodhya in 1993 and luckily came back - I say luckily because his friends who went there in 1987 and 1989 were not so lucky... okay?

So you can probably see why at least some of us feel that you so called "Hindus" are more trouble than you are worth.

You are indulging in sophistry that I have seen enough of my lifetime, so as they used to say in Bombay, hawa aane dey..

 
At 9:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The GoI assists in the management of temple trusts. The same way as the local goverment runs special bus services to key temples and mosques or offers a Haj subsidy. It is a public service to discourage criminalisation not a control mechanism.

yes the same way dawood bhai assists social affairs in mumbai

and you talk of sophistry

Boss, you are using all the standard argument that my relatives who think they are "Hindu revivalists" use. I know all the tricks and I have had these conversations over several years with them, you save it for someone else.

i dont care about your relatives and your attempts to be more modern and smarter than them

as u said, pls save it for someone else


FYI my grandfather was Guruji's classmate and after Nathuram did what he did, our house and family was targetted by irate mobs despite the fact that we had nothing to do with it. A family member went to Ayodhya in 1993 and luckily came back - I say luckily because his friends who went there in 1987 and 1989 were not so lucky... okay?


depending upon the victimhood of relatives and family members or claimed victimhood is again..sophistry

So you can probably see why at least some of us feel that you so called "Hindus" are more trouble than you are worth.

we so called hindus pay taxes and suffer ur beloved goi

can u say the same?

we so called hindus are not ashmaed of being called hindus or even worse by your secoolar typoes can u say same?

nice joke

You are indulging in sophistry that I have seen enough of my lifetime, so as they used to say in Bombay, hawa aane dey.

ur lifetime in bombay is behind you takl of present

seeking relevance by supporting the goi and not even admitting to its mistakes is ..jokes

 
At 10:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

There is no connection between the UPA Chairperson and John Dayal.

there is no connection between musharraf and dawood either

so?

That is a connection you have concieved ... shall we say.. somewhat immaculately.

too old to believe in virgin births

lol sorry mahatma for being communal

UPA officer bearers have not attended any mass conversions anymore than NDA officebearers have attended reconversion rallies. This kind of this is media spin - it does not really happen.

yes, yes media spin

bad media

are you awake or are u just prtnding to be asleep


Are there UPA and NDA workers who work as part of prosletysing type groups? most certainly but that is matter of their personal faith - it is not something I can comment on. The leadership is above this kind of thing.


sure there are left workers who worship mao and support maoists but that is a matter of their personal faith
the leadership is above such things

do u even realise how silly u sound


If you start holding the leadership responsible for everything that some random person claiming to work for the party does, then by that logic Modiji could be accused of participating in every murder carried out by the Babu Bajrangi types. So clearly that is not a sane way of thinking.

of course modi is culpable for breakdown in law and order

but why shud i give a damn when ur upa types are much worse and they are secoolar so it is acceptable and whitewashed

Polarisation at the local level is an accepted electoral strategy. Polarisation without clear objectives at the national level is not particularly useful.

polarisation at the national level is even better
mian ki jooti mian ki sir


I am not reflexively anti-American.

ok

I am simply pragmatic. There are things America will do to protect itself and there are things that India will do to protect itself. It is important to recognise these when then they happen.

india wont protect itself as long as ur EJ sonia mata is in charge

I am neither pro-Soniaji nor anti-Soniaji.

being pro india one doesnt have choice

I have no problem with idol worship but I don't make idol worship the focus of my national thinking. If you want to do that is fine too.

soniaji makes fine idol

You are conflating what a bunch of media junkies in New Delhi talk with actual PMO policy. There is no connection between these groups. The media junkies are feeding the media and BRF is falling for their rubbish and wasting time running around in circles.

ya and sb doesnt exist and is a myth
and he loves scicom

I am not about to let a bunch of media managers decide what is right for me. I trust the Scicom and PMO. I do not approve of people who speak ill of them.

sure even when pmo uses media to target scicom

If you want to join Achin Vanaik and company, you should feel free, but then you must realise they are more Americarakshaks than Bharatrakshaks.

achin vanaik and sociologists are herrows of secular UPA

think about it while u tie urself in spinning

 
At 10:16 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It is no surprise with such a philosophy, the only definition of patriotism that the hyperreactive types can agree upon involves dissing the politicians and their national leaders continuously.

i dont believe in idol worship and sacred cows of national leaders

i haver religion for thast

politicians are mofos elected by me

they need to earn my respect

That enlightened self-interest part of patriotism is ofcourse conveniently ignored.

upa with caste worship minority worship does not deserve worship

Maybe it is just the fact that I have seen too many burnt and dismembered bodies and dead children in my time to be impressed by claims of facing "bombs" and "bullets". I know too many people who have actually sacrificed their lives for the country and they never whine like you do.

too much gas man

use isabgol

elite types like u dont even travel in bus what do u know of bombs and bullets


So forgive me - this does not work on me - you should really save all this for someone who lives in another country and has never seen India before. Try this on those NRIs I am sure they will buy into stories of your sacrifices.


i think u live in another contry

of ur own mind

also u talk just like secooolar NRIs

 
At 10:21 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

So you can probably see why at least some of us feel that you so called "Hindus" are more trouble than you are worth.

so called hindus dont use image of a rape hugging mass murderer to show how modern we are also

and ppl thot only pakes loved mughals

only sophistcated hindus without comma do that

can we maek idol of u and worship
mahatma

 
At 10:38 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I never though young Indians who are educated (at least academically) would devolve into blithering Pakleds (see that Star Trek TNG episode?) so fast. I guess your predictions on eager-beaver DCH grabbing the wrong end of the stick are coming true Maverick.... now all that remains to see is what watershed event would it take for them to come to their senses.

T.W.

 
At 11:16 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Anonymous,

I mention my family because some of them have successfully managed to get elected with all this "garv se kaho" stuff. You could even say they are smarter than me.

I am simply pointing out that I have had my share of these people around - it doesn't affect me in the same way as it does others. I have heard all the arguments they make and I agree with some and I disagree with some but nothing has conclusively swayed me towards their point of view.

I pay taxes too and I don't make a big deal out of being a Hindu.

My UPA leadership is no more culpable for the actions of random people than My NDA leadership is. And My Left Front leadership pretends to believe in Mao or Lenin's ideas while asking friendly mutual funds to invest in European and American markets.

A majoritarian ideology taken to extremes will yeild the exact same failures that we are seeing in Pakistan.

I actually do travel by bus and local trains, it is quite nicer now than it used to be. Travelling by car in Bombay is nightmare time and safety wise. Travelling in the countryside in Maharashtra is a little better by car now that the Munde government put so money into infrastructure, but the main problem is the trucks and Bus drivers who drive very recklessly. So there too I find it is better to travel by bus.

Bombay has changed a lot, but not so much that I don't recognise it. Oddly enough for us Bombaywallahs, Dawood bhai, despite his involvement in the '93 blasts, is a social worker of some sort.

If people want to do idol worship of Soniaji or Vajpayeeji that is fine too. I don't have a problem with that. You want to worship me, you should do it but I don't want to make any idols out of people.

I think you are confusing the way you do things with the way I do things.

I have not idolised the Scicom or the PMO or the guidance council. I know they have done no wrong and I think that criticism of them is misplaced. The kind of things that are being said about them are disgusting and untrue.

It pains me to see this kind behaviour on a place like BRF.

Vanaik is a sociologist by training, however he is a self appointed nuclear expert. One has to give credit where it is due, and realise that he is not an expert in everything he claims to be.

I have always lived in India wherever I may have physically been.

Hi T.W.

Yes the DCH has very "Pak" notions of how things should be done.

 
At 12:09 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Guys,
1)Kindly bring in solutions that will help India in closing this nuclear deal on her/India's terms.

2) What MMS govt has done is very credible. Even BJP is turning around to turning to MMS's view. Look at the latest interview of Brajesh Mishra

 
At 12:33 AM, Anonymous s.venkat said...

maverick,
Thank you for your kind reply.I want to reiterate that your blog has given a reality check for me.

I am going to indulge myself one more time.You have said that the US wants to illuminate the decision making nodes in our establishment.If *some* of the minoritarian groups compromise,will it not affect our security?The record of the minorities in our freedom struggle is hardly flattering.Swami Vivekananda and Gandhiji were not thrilled by the activities of the Xtian missionaries.Dr.Radhakrishnan remarked that indian Xtians believed Jesus was the flagbearer of the Union Jack.The US,like the British before,would definitely like to leverage these groups to its advantage.

We have THE problem of massive overpopulation.Do we have to add divided loyalties.Also in the case of linguistic identity,should we not draw the line where this starts harming the legitimate interests of other groups.For all this the idea of india as a plural but integrated whole has significance.

I am getting a bit personal.Please forgive me.Perhaps you live so close to the Dadar-Matunga line,you are led to believe in the orderly chaos of indian life.Things might not be so simple in the bangladesh or nepal border.Life in the great and unique cosmopolitan city of bombay is quite different from other parts,where the nasty face of many groups is evident.

I do not know whether you are a maharashrian.Maharashtrians combine the best elements of 'aryan' and 'dravidian' cultures which is the original composite culture.Dont you think this is worth fighting for in any part of india.I am not talking of anything crass or vulgar or anything which demeans any indvidual.We have also learnt bitter lessons in the past when extra territorial loyalties held sway.

The US has no mandatory quotas for African americans or hispanics in their country.Why should the ejs promote such behaviour in india.

If i sound shrill, i am sorry.We need to promote equality,but modern socities in the west are based on equality of opportunities and expectations of rewards on the basis of output

 
At 4:15 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi s.venkat,

Majoritarian and Minoritarian division is a political one.

There is a consensus on key national issues including security. There is presently an evolving consensus on economic issues.

The big problem facing us economically is that after independence we chose the Mahanobis model - develop the coastal urban belts and then use the prosperity there to secure the inland economy. This will work as long as there is no collapse in the agroeconomy. Currently pressure on the land and water resources due to population is laying the seeds of the collapse of the agriculture sector. If there is a collapse the entire economic model underlying the national economy will fail and an utter catastrophe hundreds of times the size of the Bengal famine will ensue.

A similar catastrophe could occur if there is a collapse in the urban sector. The urban belts face development challenges because of energy and capital shortages, ensuring a steady flow of these is key to securing growth in the coastal belt.

The current atmosphere of political debate is gradually building a political consensus on how to go about securing the urban belt against energy shortages while ensuring that the collapse of the agroeconomy is halted.

"Minoritarian" groups and "minorities" are the same thing. For example, a "minority" like the Hindu Mahasabha played a significant role in helping the British harass the Indian National Congress by straining its understanding with muslim groups in India. The Hindu Mahasabha subscribed to "majoritarian" ideas. Another example of this is Jinnah, who supported the British while arguing for the establishment of a "Muslim" Pakistan - a very majoritarian concept.

The kind of thing you are saying about "minorities" and their role in the freedom struggle, I have heard my North Indian relatives say about "South Indians". Why blame my relatives, I had the misfortune of hearing a self-described right wing hardliner who taught me Hindi in class tell me that "South Indians sat out the freedom struggle". This was a gentleman who was a salaried employee of the GoI. I have heard "Brahmins" say that they did all the work and the "Dalits" sat out the struggle. Having seen a lot of people take credit (or deny it) for the freedom.

This "drawing a line" business is something that has to be done very carefully in India. There are simply too many people and the likelihood that you do not trample on someone's interests is very small.

The Bombay I grew up in was a tense and often painful equilibrium between street gangs loyal to various narcotics smugglers and the police lived in constant fear of assasination. Growing up in Bombay I found life difficult and unpredictable. By contrast, when I visited my relatives in the interior areas of Maharashtra, I was often stuck by the simplicity and slow pace of life there. I think this is changing now, the pace of life in the rural areas is growing and the same unpredictability that pervaded Bombay appears to be making its presence felt there.

Perhaps my comfort comes from the story of my family - especially the manner in which the way we made our livelihood and how we lived our lives, has changed over the last three generations but I do not see any difference between Bombay and some place on the border. The uncertainity seems to exist everywhere.

Maharashtrian culture is influenced by many streams not just "Aryan" and "Dravidian".
Evidence of this may be found in the Persianized depiction of Shivaji or in the Ajanta Ellora complex which showcases the region as being a major centre for Buddhism.

I think this sort of mixing occurs everywhere - it is a natural process.

I don't follow the point about the lack of empowerment in the US and the activities of evangelicals in India. Please explain.

 
At 10:03 PM, Anonymous s.venkat said...

Dear maverick,
Thanks for your reply.I have no issues with it except you trying to equate HM with ML.It is a fact that the South,by and large,"sat out of the freedom struggle".I will not go into the reasons.But then the vast majority of the south was not anatogonistic to the freedom movement either.Nor has indian political unity ever been questioned in most parts.

Happy Deepavali to you!

 
At 11:34 PM, Anonymous southie said...

It has been quite a dramatic rise from the fear filled streets to tea parties with decision makers.Good Wishes for this continuing fairy tale!

 
At 8:16 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi s.venkat,

I don't agree with that characterisation of the south during the independence struggle.

The Hindu Mahasabha was no different from the Muslim League. The only sustainable political platform they could attain was anti-INC.

Despite all the intelligence that the British had on their alleged terrorist activities, neither was eliminated by British Indian secret services which were otherwise quite prompt in eliminating undesirables. Despite their violent ways the HM and the ML retained an *overt* political presence in British India.

How exactly Jinnah could find the money to create a political party of thin air has always been a mystery to me...

But then there are many things I don't know or understand, like how could Godse and Karkare etc... find money to travel to Delhi form Bombay by Air in 1948! and how is it that both DCP Nagarwala of the Bombay Police and DIG Gurtu of the Pune Police did not consider the tips regarding the "involvement of the editor of the Agrani and the Hindu Rashtra" in an attempt to kill Mahatma Gandhi as... actionable intelligence before Jan 30th 1948.

There are many mysterious things in history, one learns to live with them.

 
At 8:24 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear S.venkat,

There is a typo in my earlier post.

The line should read:

Minorities and "minoritism" are not the same thing.

Dear Southie,

I am unfamiliar with your terse style.

 
At 10:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Maverick,

There are some gaps in the official version of the Mahatma's assassination. Home Minister Desai himself commented that if he arrested Savarkar (after Nagarwala presented circumstantial evidence against him), the whole of Bombay would go up in flames.
BTW, wasn't it Apte who was in that flight with Godse? Freedom at Midnight(?) dishes this anecdote of Apte, the Ladie's man, missing a tryst with an air hostess from that flight and all....

But there's still the fact that people like Nehru, Patel, Desai, Baldev Singh and Azad would never cover up any high level conspiracy against the man whom they loved so much. Nehru might have possibly strangled Savarkar himself! Plus, this was a good opportunity to trample down the Sangh Parivar once and for all.... And last but not the least, the eminent historian of the DF now exhort that the Indian National Movement and the Freedom of India itself is a deep, dark conspiracy! So vile old Ghandi's death would just be like Gotti bumping off Castellano or something... :D

T.W.

 
At 11:01 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello T.W.

I recently read the Kapoor Commission report. I had never realised how different things looked in the early days.

From the report it seems DCP Jamshed Nagarwala, a police officer I was taught to think highly off, focussed investigative resources on a conspiracy to kidnap Gandhiji. The kingpin of this conspiracy per DCP Nagarwala's investigations was Savarkar. This investigation consumed the resources of the plainclothes branch of the Bombay city police.

Leads pointing to Godse's assasination plans that had been obtained from the interrogations of Madanlal Pahwa in Delhi and from Prof. Jain's (Ruia College) communications with Shri. B.G.Kher and Shri. M. Desai. These leads were passed on DCP Nagarwala but no effort to pursue these leads.

While the Delhi Police allegations that the Bombay Police frustrated their efforts to pursue such leads, is not entirely credible but this lack of action on part of DCP Nagarwala is very curious.

I read the Kapoor commission on a whim, but I admit it has raised several troubling questions about this time.

Certain historians like A. G. Noorani read selectively from the Kapoor Commission report, but the full report yeilds far more unsettling a picture.

 

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home