Friday, February 10, 2017

RU tanks in Donbass - Or the tale of two Husky puppies- Or Why I love the internet .

In response to the question " Where did the "Separatist" Tanks in Donbass come from?" - Comrade Peskov replied "Not from Russia".

But unfortunately for Comrade Peskov, the internet had already been hard at work.

Some people had identified the tanks and the specific unit from open sources [1]

Some others had already identified two cute husky puppies (no they don't all look alike) [2]. Please read the article and then read the comments on how to identify tanks.

Now none of this will make any real difference to the situation on the ground, but since the situation on the ground is actually completely meaningless unless RU can assert a position in the media space that is favorable, these reports and analysis will create a massive barrier to RU finding accommodation in the media.

RU at present - does not have the resource to dominate all media sources.

It might get access to some of them via allies and proxies in the Trump Administration, but the extent of dominance is unlikely to be sufficient to erase all doubt about the veracity of RU claims.

What emerges from this however is less that RU is obviously trying to deny invading Ukraine, but that the entire intervention in Ukraine was not well thought out. It is not impossible to create a deniable military intervention, but when you f-ck up simple stuff like not painting tanks, sanitizing VK profiles, not keeping movement security of armor formations - it says your head is not in the game.

I wonder why people in RU are being so careless, it is almost as if the middle of the RU national security machinery doesn't give a damn whether Putin survives this crisis.

It is one thing for the average RU soldier or operator to not give a shit (what does he lose/gain from Putin's survival? - a painful death awaits either way) - but for the middle of the national security machinery (which usually keeps track of pesky details like markings on tank regiments) etc... to drop the ball like this? That is wrong.

It says to me that their heart is not in it. And that is a problem for anyone in Moscow who wants to ride out a major economic contraction. 


At 11:46 PM, Blogger Wise_Ass said...

Think of it this way: Russia is playing chess, while the Americans are playing Monopoly. What Americans understand by "war games" is exactly what occurs on the board of the Parker Brothers' pastime. The board game Monopoly is won by placing as many hotels as possible on squares of the playing board. Substitute military bases, and you have the sum of American strategic thinking.

America's idea of winning a strategic game is to accumulate the most chips on the board: bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, a pipeline in Georgia, a "moderate Muslim" government with a big North Atlantic Treaty Organization base in Kosovo, missile installations in Poland and the Czech Republic, and so forth. But this is not a strategy; it is only a game score.

Chess players think in terms of interaction of pieces: everything on the periphery combines to control the center of the board and prepare an eventual attack against the opponent's king. The Russians simply cannot absorb the fact that America has no strategic intentions: it simply adds up the value of the individual pieces on the board. It is as stupid as that. But there is another difference: the Americans are playing chess for career and perceived advantage. Russia is playing for its life,

The place to avert tragedy is in Ukraine. Russia will not permit Ukraine to drift to the West. Whether a country that never had an independent national existence prior to the collapse of communism should become the poster-child for national self-determination is a different question. The West has two choices: draw a line in the sand around Ukraine, or trade it to the Russians for something more important.

My proposal is simple: Russia's help in containing nuclear proliferation and terrorism in the Middle East is of infinitely greater import to the West than the dubious self-determination of Ukraine. The West should do its best to pretend that the "Orange" revolution of 2004 and 2005 never happened, and secure Russia's assistance in the Iranian nuclear issue as well as energy security in return for an understanding of Russia's existential requirements in the near abroad.

If Washington chooses to demonize Russia, the likelihood is that Russia will become a spoiler with respect to American strategic interests in general, and use the Iranian problem to twist America's tail. That is a serious risk indeed, for nuclear proliferation is the one means by which outlaw regimes can pose a serious threat to great powers. Russia confronts questions not of expediency, but of existence, and it will do whatever it can to gain maneuvering room should the West seek to "punish" it for its actions in Georgia.

One irony of the present crisis is that Washington's neo-conservatives, by demanding a tough stance against Russia, may have harmed Israel's security interests more profoundly than any of Israel's detractors in American politics. The neo-conservatives are not as a rule Jewish, but many of them are Jews who have a deep concern for Israel's security - as does this writer. If America turns Russia into a strategic adversary, the probability of Israel's survival will drop by a big notch.

At 1:27 PM, Blogger Wise_Ass said...

Trump was deadly serious when he vowed that “The United States will swiftly and completely destroy the Islamic State – ISIS.” He is proposing to embark on a herculean task that calls for a coalition of several armies and whose consequences are unforeseen. When George W. Bush set out to destroy Al Qaeda in Iraq 11 years ago, he never imagined he was creating fertile soil for the rise of the equally menacing Islamic State. Therefore, the mission to destroy ISIS can’t stop there. The combatants must be ready to sustain a massive long-term military presence in the Middle East to make sure that a new bane does not raise its head.
Trump has also set his would-be partners a stiff price for their pact. It was signaled by the news report that his administration is contemplating branding Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps and its intelligence and operational arm, Al Qods, a terrorist organization.
In addition to their combined war on ISIS, the US president is adamantly demanding that his designated allies come together to rid Syria, Iraq and Yemen of Iran’s military presence. This would require the overwhelming military presence in the Middle East of the combined might of the US, Russia, Turkish, Saudi and Egyptian armies.

His goal is to knock the Islamic Republic off its pedestal as the leading Middle East power set up by Barack Obama and his secretaries of state, Hillary Clinton and John Kerry, in eight years of strenuous diplomacy and the outlay of hundreds of billions of dollars.

Since the president intendeds for Saudi, Emirates and Egyptian troops to join his campaign against ISIS, he envisages their armies fighting shoulder to shoulder with the IDFand so providing an opening for diplomacy towards am Israeli-Arab peace accord.
Trump is holding in abeyance for a number of weeks his decision about transferring the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Meanwhile, he will expect to come to terms with Netanyahu on a US-Israel formula for the future of Israeli communities in Judea and Samaria, just as the late Ariel Sharon struck a deal with Bush.

The flood of reports claiming the US President has already decided against the embassy move to Jerusalem are unfounded and the work of pre-Trump elements.

At 5:16 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Wise_Ass,

Let me repeat for you the operative portion of my previous exchanges with you.

"Great changes come at great cost"

The changes in policy structure you are saying that Donald Trump wants to see implemented come with tremendous costs. There is no physical/human structure in place to even flesh out the details of what you are saying "Trump wants to do".

During the campaign period, he never set up a staff to do detailed policy-wonk stuff. The dozen or so people that were initially set up to do this were fired and denied pay for work done. This is his own damn fault - he can't blame that on an intern.

Even if the policy structuring staff was imported from Yasenevo's America Upravlenie (and yes I recognize those resources are formidable) - we still run into the problem that the US government is in no position to bear the cost of the changeover. The USG is so deeply in debt that there is no way to pay for all the big changes the as you suggest "Trump wants to make".

With the exposure of Best-of-the-Best General Flynn and the entire Rosneft>>QHG >>Walker's Fiduciary Management >> Intertrust >> Blackstone gold seam (and yes that is exactly what a gold seam looks like), Yasenevo will have to go into "Clean Up" mode. The Rosneft-for-sanctions OP is burnt to a crisp. Any more exposure will likely damage Moscow and its people in DC.

I am telling you right now all resources are focused on one thing, buying President Trump more time in the WH. With the fall of Flynn, the democrats and power hungry GOP factions will try to get Gen. Flynn on a Logan Act violation. This will put him in a position to reveal what he knows about the arrangements between DJT's people and the Kremlin.

An Iran-Contra level shit show in on the horizon. This will drag on for two years and then whether the Dems seize control of the senate or not - there will be impeachment proceedings.

Whatever he promised you - you have to accept that he just shafted the Kremlin and walked away from his promise to end sanctions. If he can fuck over Putin like that - what do you think he has in store for people like you who believed his stories?

So please just forget about all the brilliant ideas you think Trump is going make into reality. He has just been photographed by multiple supporters visibly compromising national security in his Mar-a-Lago resort. How long do you think his enemies will dwell on that? do you think anyone will believe that the "Nothing was compromised" statement from his PressSec? the same PressSec who he wants to replace soon - but no one else wants the job?

Going forward DJT has only one priority - saving his own skin.

At 11:09 PM, Blogger Wise_Ass said...

Flynn went out due to less sexy reasons than you speculate.It is either a Trump play to go on the offensive against deep state by unleashing Flynn

“He [President Donald Trump] expressed confidence,” Flynn told TheDCNF, just hours before his resignation. “That’s when he told me that we need to go out and talk more. So I’m going to do that.”

or Flynn was doing(..again less sexy..) his own thing without President&VP in the loop thereby "eroding his trust".This is the most likely reason.Remember Trump got a very low threshold for firing people though it is fair to raise question on Trump's own actions are a bit all over the place especially with picking random fights.

Eli Lake here is honest enough to admit the story doesnt make any sense though I disagree the Deep State intelligence community is such a powerful thing.I think deep state is overrated like everywhere else and not powerful as some people think they are.
Only an idiot will believe a veteran intelligence officer like Flynn used his regular communication channel to sell out USA to Russia :D :D

At 5:32 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Do you get what I said earlier?

Donald Trump's No 1 priority now is survival. The grand US-Russia love + Muslim kiling orgy that some people masturbated to is on is on the back burner for the forseeable future.

He almost fired Kellyanne Conway last night. She will leave as soon as a keep-ur-mouth-shut fee is negotiated. A hard negotiation began late last night, and we will likely see a settlement soon. Kellyanne knows where too many of the bodies are buried and she will not leave quietly.

Reince Preibus is now in the cross hairs of the Bannon-Breitbart-RIS provocation. The GOP leadership in the senate is holding off investigating Flynn in the hope that it will act as a deterrent to Bannon and Co hitting out a Priebus.

Donald Trump is not firing people because he has a "low threshold". He is firing people to avoid being jailed himself. These are sacrifices being made to keep the wolves at bay. It was an exceedingly bad idea to defile the Wall of Stars with lies - that kind of poison begets a very strong riposte that no civilian entity can survive. Even if you survive that you can only live a wretched half life where you constantly sacrifice all your friends and family to ensure that you carry on with your f-ed up existence for one more day at a time.

Vladimir Putin is recognizing the need to distance himself from Trump. That is why the first anti-Trump but pro-Kremlin rally has taken place in Moscow. Without Trump to do his bidding in DC, he will be forced to give the go order to his troops along the western border.

The RU violations of the INF are now being matched by the deployment of US strategic bombers to EUR and Mattis firming up NATO pledges.

We are fast approaching the force alert levels that existed during Able Archer 1983. EUR powers have begun evaluating how long their national stocks of food and fuel will last if they lose control over SLOCs during wartime.

This fetish for killing Muslims and fantasy of racial supremacy is going to cost us all dearly.


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