Maverick's World

What I understand of TrumpRussia...

After reviewing everything I can get my hands on here is what I think is really going on.

Trump is a small part of a very large USIC operation spanning decades. It may very well be one of the biggest intelligence ops in US history after the PSB's terrifying but extraordinary work in securing Post WWII Europe against the spread of communism.

Trump has been in the money laundering business for a while now. He has managed to stay out jail by agreeing to "wear a wire" for the USIC.  As the USSR collapsed, Trump began to move RU conflict capital into US and EU real estate. The USIC objective at this time was too keep the money where they could see it. I estimate almost a trillion USD (today's money) was moved this way.

In last decade the USIC began to notice that Trump was skimming off the top. CI's (Confidential Informants) sometimes do that but this is usually a bad sign. USIC couldn't figure out why the RIS was letting Trump get away with it. The question was raised - Is he skimming or being paid off for some hitherto unknown service by RIS? 

I do not know when this question was asked and how the investigation truly began, but it most likely turned into a retrospective analysis of the data already collected by the "wire tap".

The panic in the USIC became very real when Trump announced his run for President. The fear was that RIS could use him as a platform for undermining the sanctity of the US electoral process. What made matters worse I suspect was the realization that a number of NY FBI personnel involved in "handling" the Trump-Sater-etc... sting operation were leaving the agency and taking up lucrative jobs in the private security field. It appears people like Uher and Deck were getting contracts from the Trump organization. Not illegal per se but in the counter-intelligence community that sort of thing raises eyebrows. When Trump secured the GOP nomination, there would been alarm bells ringing inside the USIC.

As this incidental collection could not be used directly against Trump in a court of law, an external database (FVEY maintained) was searched first. Why did the IC want to do this in a court of law? - because it is easier to threaten a CI with legal consequences. Perhaps the hope was that a legal deterrent would go a long way in securing his cooperation. With the information generated via FVEY data, a FISA Court process was initiated.

When Trump announced his run for President, the choices before the USIC would have been,

a)  go public with Trump's RIS ties. This would risk exposing numerous USIC/allied assets before they could be replaced. It would put the entire IC under massive strain.

b) let it play out and use Trump as a lure to drag out RIS assets from their hiding places. Who knows - one might even get lucky and pull out the entire RIS/X-Dir A team?!

It appears the USIC went for the latter option. It makes sense as it is a resource conservative option. The real struggle remains going through the mass of data and determining whether the RIS turned the tables on the USIC's sting operation.  As long as that continues unimpeded, real progress has been made. Obviously the investigation will be painful but the USIC can't afford to not investigate, the Augean stables have to be cleaned.

Trump might try to argue this is all a conspiracy against him, that he never shifted his loyalty. But that what a bent CI would say. And lets face it - CI's are picked for their malleability to the handlers. Beyond a point they don't really get a say in what the handler thinks of them.

Unfortunately from the Russian perspective, they cannot back down either. Whatever they had going with Trump, they need to keep pushing it or risk losing everything.  From their POV it is ideal to cause maximum damage to the US democracy and the US brand worldwide.

posted by maverick @ 9:59 AM