Sunday, March 04, 2018

"Maybe we’ll give that a shot some day."

With this seemingly off the cuff remark - Trump once again declared his complete disregard for democracy.

While his supporters will jump to his defense saying "its a joke", or he's just saying that to "bait liberals" or support his dictatorship coz "we're stupid like that and he'll let us kill and rape all the dark skinned people we want"

And liberals will rage about his unsuitability of office, his declining mental health and his corruption.

.... but none of that will change the facts.

The facts are very simple.

Trump stands *effectively* accused of treason. Neither he nor his aides nor family will survive the Russia investigation. A best case scenario is they will end up in jail. A worst case scenario is that they will be slaughtered by Russian spies trying to cut off all visible links to Russia and avoid a nuclear confrontation that Russia cannot win*.

As Trump knows this better than any of his supporters or aides or family, he also knows that the only way to dodge this outcome is to declare himself "Emperor for Life". That is his ONLY way out. He cannot surrender to the FBI and sell out his own family before they sell him out (The Russians will still slit his throat if he does that). He cannot run retire (or switch places with Pence) and avoid the blow (there is no sacrificial goat he can offer that is big enough to appease both the USIC and the RIS which are very keen to reduce the risk of a global nuclear war).  He cannot keep spraying shit on FoxNews and hope that people will forget this treason. He cannot hope to keep dumping his follies on the GOP's political fortunes even though they would not have a penny to their name without his Russian helpers. These is NO WAY out but to push for dictatorial powers.

People think (IMHO foolishly) that dictatorial powers come from a legally visible break with constitutional law. There is no reason it has to be legally visible. It can all be done in a legally subterranean fashion - by using pliant bureaucrats, over-ambitious nobodies and a broken oversight mechanism.

Trumpers of the world will rejoice the destruction of the "swamp" by their God Trump. But as their God indicated in his comments on "Taking the guns away first and then doing the due process" - they will be the first to feel his wrath.

Surely 2A advocates realize that a dictator will *HAVE* to take guns away from the general population if he is to impose his will on them? 

I don't know if there is an appropriate time for this - so I am going to say it.

Dear Trumpers -

Kindly pull your heads out of your collective asses- Trump is coming for your Guns. 

You know - the guns you keep under your pillows to shoot black people ad FBI agents who want to ask you questions about what exactly you have in your "medicine" cabinets - yeah Trump is coming for those guns - 

He is coming for them and your NRA is more loyal to Trump than it is to you. 

Good Luck
ps. You can call me an IC/"Deep State" Stooge - but you know this is coming. Or were you dumb enough to think you can trust an NYC billionaire who "says stuff just like you want to hear".

* Putin's little show and tell about novel Russian nuclear weapons that defeat American NMD systems was so pathetic that I feel the worst I suspect about the accuracy of Russian inertial navigation systems must be true. I have long suspected the Russians never perfected their gyroscopy and gradiometry tools and this translated into a horrible CEP on the missiles. Add to this the persistent problems in Russian metallurgy and we have a very low OAR for Russian nuclear delivery platforms. This binds the Russians to large missiles with extremely high yield warheads. It is fine in practice but servicing them is problematic when your economy is smaller than that of the Netherlands. That is why Putin lied about his "nuclear powered cruise missile". That is why Putin used a seven year old animation about MIRVs striking Florida. By representing them as massive operational successes, Putin drew attention to his own failures to secure Russia from nuclear attack and exposed himself to political misfortune. He is like a wounded animal now, he has few options.


At 10:05 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

i must disagree with your assessment.....putin has never been more powerful......i think the average russian truly loves him.

i had a political science prof once tell me that dick nixon would stage a dictatorial coup before he left office......

At 10:10 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

trump is not teddy kgb.........putin is. trump is political chaos, world wide wrestling ultimate fanboi.......teddy kgb hates disorderliness. trump thrives on it.

At 9:04 AM, Blogger maverick said...

It is difficult for me to estimate how truly popular Putin is. I hope for his sake he can manage the 70-70 Russian observers think he needs to demonstrate. Russian Media is basically FoxNews in Russian - so whatever popularity he has it is manufactured.

The thing is - he can always rig the elections, but then managing the aftermath is challenging because even with the election managed, there will be nothing to stop his own bodyguards from turning on him. The Rosgvardiya and the Sloviki will always be the ultimate determinants of power.

If I was a member of the elite in the Grand Duchy of Moscow, I would be cautious with Putin. Whatever economic pain I feel because of Putin's mismanagement, I would weigh that against the cost of the chaos that would accompany replacing him.

This replacement cost could be unsustainable for Russia in its current state, but if it becomes unavoidable then it will have to be paid out.

I draw an analogy to the state of Stalin during the height OP Barbarossa. With the Wehrmacht knocking at Moscow's door, Stalin went into a deep depression, he lost confidence and retired to his dacha refusing to see visitors. I suspect he felt his time was up and he would die at the hands of his guards.

However the Moscow elite of the time felt that there was a bigger crisis at hand. If the Wehrmacht seized Moscow, there was no likelihood that Russia would remain a viable power. So they bit the bullet - rather than shoot Stalin and try to find a replacement, they simply told him that he had their complete support.

With that support at his back, Stalin cancelled the plan to abandon Moscow and poured reinforcements from the East into its defense. It is at this time that the orders to hold Stalingrad at all cost went out.

I feel we may see a similar dynamic with Putin. His use of fabulous claims to paper over Russia's crushing lack of a cost-effective deterrence mechanism speaks volumes about his incompetence in critical matters. This is reminiscent of Stalin's claims about Russian military strength prior to the Nazi invasion.

Stalin had one thing going for him which Putin doesn't. The Soviet economy was still enjoying the benefits of the Stalin's rapid industrialization campaign. By contrast Putin's oil boom has run out. The Russian economy is crippled.

So IMHO this is a race between two factors. The TINA factor which will keep Putin in place and economic malcontent which will seek to oust him.

At 2:32 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

russian culture loves strong man leadership......teddy kgb fits the bill.


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