Our perceptions of General Musharraf have changed over the years
In the aftermath of Kargil, we did not think well of Gen. Musharraf. The manner in which Gen. Musharraf conducted the Kargil operations while Mian Nawaz Sharif, the Pakistani Prime Minister, was initialing a peace treaty with Sri. Atal Bihari Vajpayee left everyone in India angry. We felt betrayed... and Gen. Musharraf's actions were an open challenge to the Prime Minister of India. There was only one language in which it could be answered.Perhaps this act of insolence on part of the General was the reason why the 1999 coup was greeted with distaste in India. Strictly speaking Indians do not have strong feelings about Pakistani internal affairs, but when General Musharraf removed Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif from power, Indians as a whole felt very unhappy - after all a known and friendly face had been replaced by an unknown one.
Now as the years have passed, India's eyes have grown accustomed to General Musharraf and his flamboyant style. Indian observers have learnt what to ignore and what to pay attention to. It was this growing confidence that allowed the escalations of 2001-2002 to proceed with minimum friction and despite overt animosity a great deal of progress was achieved where it mattered - in the business of restoring trust.
As trust was slowly rebuilt, one step at a time, the Vajpayee government's policy vis-a-vis Musharraf's Pakistan was smoothly handed over to the Manmohan Singh government, an extremely understated foreign policy success. The last six years have seen a steady march towards normalisation of relations, expanded people to people contact and the restoration of key lines of communication.
It is no surprise the pace of positive motion has accelerated in the post 9/11 era and ofcourse things have proceeded with visible speed only under the stewardship of General Musharraf and his Army. One can now almost believe what Stephen Cohen foretold about this venture. It is not to say that India disbelieved Stephen Cohen, for if it had, it would have never taken the path he pointed out - but India's sense of skepticism about this had its roots in the stark reality of the Kashmir. And frankly none of us could have believed the damage that one earthquake would cause. Perhaps Stephen Cohen foresaw the earthquake too - who knows. He is after all - as my Chinese friends would say - even more mysterious than mysterious itself.
After the confrontation at Lal Masjid, it became clear that the bridges had been burned and there was no turning back. It is at this point that Indian minds began to see the full extent of this confrontation and what it was shaping up into. Having seen the complexities of this drama, the "grudging respect" that Sri. Narayanan speaks of, developed in India's minds for General Musharraf. Before our very eyes, Gen. Musharraf, the perpetual guerilla, the perennial commando, now fights a battle on an open plain like an ordinary infantryman. Gone is the Janus face and in its place is a sombre, determined and yet melancholy stare that occasionally glistens with freshly shed tears.
Perhaps herein lie the roots of India's change of heart? Who can say with certainity, but one thing is certain, ultimately, every post 1971 soldier in Pakistan had seen the images of defeat and the crushing consequences of the loss of national respect. As it stands today - General Musharraf - howsoever grudgingly has earned that respect from India.
While we still do not understand why our Pakistani brothers persist in seeking more than heavenly power permits - Pakistan today is a great deal more transparent to us than it was in the late 1990s. Its Arabistani flirtation is over, and Pakistanis are no longer strangers to us.
Should transparency be maintained, the path of sanity will only grow wider.
posted by maverick @ 4:35 PM
34 Comments:
Hi M,
1)Some of our are not aware of what Stephen Cohen ever uttered?
2) One cannot make much of the spin that MKN talks of i.e "grudging admiration" Kindly expand this spin.
M,
now you're treading where farishtas fear to tread ... :)
peace in the subcontinent is the best defense against uncle-ji ... has Musharraf finally seen the light? ... your point about the grudging respect is well taken ... but DCH, who want to bomb Pakistan to stone ages, will not appreciate it ...
Hi M,
1)Sorry for being sarcastic: according to you Musharaff the rat is our chaddi dost!!
2) Mush will just wait until US of A removes the quarantine on his nuclear assets, then wait & watch his belligerence.
This blog is looking increasingly like a front piece for propoganda for the babus of Indian government.
I can understand SS's affinity with the bureaucrats, but packaging the fiasco of Parliament mobilisation and other failures as masterpieces of diplomacy is putting lipstick on a pig.
Of course, each one has their own perceptions, and even more so on a weblog....
Hi Anonymous,
Stephen Cohen opined in 1999 that having the Pakistan Army in power was the best for India to sort out its long-term issues with Pakistan.
At the time, conventional wisdom in India rejected because it associated General Musharraf - and by induction the Pakistan Army - as a betrayer of trust. So while Stephen used all his America based influence channels to agitate for a wider contact between India and the Pakistan Army - the rest of us raised questions about trust. The Men at Arms were quite clear about where they stood, that they would rather meet the Pakistan Army with the point of a bayonet instead. Given the way things were turning in Kashmir, who were we to disagree with them?
Perhaps it is fair to say - Stephen Cohen was a visionary, and we were pragmatists? You see as we kept telling Stephen, trust is very very hard to build.
That is why when Gen. Musharraf's motorcade was challenged near the bridge or the petrol pump in Rawalpindi, Indians wondered why had the jammers suddenly not worked, and why the suicide bomber waited .25 seconds before he let in the clutch on his truck... many mysteries led us to suspect many things. And why just us, even Stephen's response was no different to these events.
It was only when we counted the bodies of the dead children at Lal Masjid, and saw what exactly was dumped in mass graves, that we realised that perhaps inadvertantly - things had changed. It seemed that the General had finally lived up to his word.
While anyone can admire those that do things, I mean Stephen himself lavished praise on this latter day Truman, and most people in general admire mass murderers.
But honestly who amongst us does not question the need for Trumans of the world to do such things? Could the trumans of the world do better by simply reading and understanding what their adversaries are saying properly? If they do such things and keep transparency in their communications, would not the ritual sacrifice the lives of innocent women and children be avoided?
That is where the "grudging" part of our respect comes from.
Alok N,
I am no faristha, I am merely a voice that needs to be heard and a voice that is seldom understood especially by the DCH.
As my anonymous friend, who calls me a babu in disguise, fails to understand, not everyone can have opinions that are irrelevant to the specific context of our national actions.
Positions inspired by ideology and based on solid and studied ignorance of facts are best left to the admirable folks that now parade on what used to be the disreputable forum.
Hi Anonymous,
I never said he is a "chaddi" dost.
He is someone we have had time to observe and understand. He is not someone dropped on our heads by an America that likes the colour of his clothes.
We have seen him in the last decade and he has done many difficult and dangerous things. We can respect someone who successfully pulls such stunts off, but we question the need to do this kind of thing in the first place.
If someone seeks to replace him, they will have to be atleast as good as he is in our eyes before we sign off on a replacement.
Now dear friend, I ask you, will the US ever remove the quarentine on the Pakistani nukes?
What dream world will that happen in?
Dear Anonymous,
I leave talking nonsense to you. You are way better at it than I can even aspire to be.
M,
you can safely ignore anonymous DF-wallahs ... their penchant for dissing Babus occasionally takes a backseat when some Babu-speak coincides with their prejudice ...
a recent case in point was when they all lined up behind a Babu Report on energy future of India and were chanting that Nuke Power will remain negligible in India ...
quoting percentages cooked up by Babus was par for the course on DF ... :)
Hi Alok,
I think they miss the subtle point made in that report that unless nuclear power gets a major boost *none* of the other energy producers will be able to foot the nation's energy bill.
Hi Anonymous,
>> fiasco of Parliament mobilisation and other failures as masterpieces of diplomacy is putting lipstick on a pig.
Boss how many were killed in the attacks during Parakram? a few dozen? a hundred? a few hundred?
A war with Pakistan would have left millions dead.
The efficiency of Parakram is undeniable to those who know how to count.
You know, people who find a handful of deaths troubling have no credibility when they talk of fighting grand wars!
Maybe you should just leave this business of death to the professionals and stick to other hobbies like sewing or webpage design etc...
Just for the record, a vardi-wallah did ask me what I would like to see done during Parakram - I replied "whatever the Pradhan Mantriji thinks is best, after all he is the boss". He persisted "but if you were PM - what would you do.." I said "I would give the go order - after all I am not much of a poet." For the record too... the officer thought I was crazy. This was a week before the famous Kupwara poetry sammelan.
Hi M,
I see you are after the DCH crowd with a vengeance :) Not a problem, afterall everyone has their views.
I have always believed one needs to continually at where the other side comes from since its a constant educational process and everyone bats for the same team.
Anyway, that wasn't what I wanted to note. My question is - How do you have some much patience with TSP?
Might I be allowed to be a li'l presumptious and state that I havent seen it as your most outstanding trait :). So what gives here. Just looking to see if I can figure out your view of the Indian sub-continent and its natural state of things.
Pradeep.
Dear Pradeep,
Are you aware of some magic potion that will instantly cure the problems facing us in Pakistan?
Is there some wand we can wave that will make the attitudes and hostility in the 150 Million neighbours next door vanish?
I am not aware of such things.
Can we even blame all the ills of Pakistan on one individual? Can we ask such an individual to change his perspective on life and then expect Pakistan as a whole to follow him?
Even the most pompous among the Pakistanis only speak of emulating Salahdin... none speaks of becoming a Prophet.
Only the New Age Raushania, the Magnificient One Himself, speaks of Roshan Khayali... that is the closest thing to the real deal we have. Can the "Homecoming Queen", the "Man of Steel", the "Fasting Imran" etc... can hold a candle up to the heir to Roshan Bayazid here? All they have are feet of wax, they cannot lay claim to the Illuminati status that the Magnificent One holds.
What besides patience can one have in such circumstances?
As an Indian, dealing with India ensures that I have a very large stock of patience. I am merely giving my Pakistani neighbours the minor benifit of the same.
Thanks for that.
As a wise one notes on the DF, one can always expect the Indian to be reasonable to a fault.
Alas, will the TSPians ever realise that. I dont belive so. Any pretense of the same is also a hudaibiyan stance IMHO.
But, I'll admit cheekily, I was hoping you'd reveal a "grander" vision and hence and the need to preserve a semblance of structure.
But this is reality.
Pradeep.
Hi M,
First some clarifications. There are more than one anonymouses here
""Dear Anonymous,
I leave talking nonsense to you. You are way better at it than I can even aspire to be""
If you have replied to the anon who suggests your affinity with the beaucrats then I am not the one. I will be better of asking questions and learning from you rather than flaming you. Only thing these days you are very circumspect in what you say and write. Like GOI who has two policies one for media/public consumption and the real one hidden far away from public gaze which GOI quitely operates.you too in your blogs comments on what GOI has to publicly say about.
2)Back to the topic. When MMS govt. was sweared in most of us were very pessimistic. But as time has passed one has developed respect for what MMS/MKN have done. They are the "realists" in the India. Both of them are visionaries. People have to have patience with them which most of the young generation lack. They want instant results, are reactionary.
3)Lastly BJP was practising the kind of diplomacy which India ought to have done after 10-15 years of solid development. Right now it is more important to keep our heads down and wait for the day when are stronger than now. That day we can again walk with our heads high.
regards,
m
folks,
I am quite slow in these matters, so it took me a while to figure this out ... rather than click on the anonymous button, click on the nickname button and enter a name ... this will eliminate some of the confusion arising from a handful of "anonymous" floating around ...
Hi Alok_n,
"rather than click on the anonymous button, click on the nickname button and enter a name "
Let me try, if it works,
regards,
mukunda
>>Boss how many were killed in the attacks during Parakram? a few dozen? a hundred? a few hundred?
A war with Pakistan would have left millions dead.
Sorry, if I may have come across a bit harsh. Actually I agree with you: during Parakram had escalated, it would have left thousands dead. My point was that it was a fiasco, because we allowed to mobilise to "1 step before war" phase without a clear objective or result in mind. What was the final objective? ABV and his coterie had ideas, and these were obviously agreed to by the bureaucrats and was fed bad advice by them. Crores spent on mobilization and nothing gained... more hair brained stuff. The other maligning of these bureaucrat comes from the handling of the US nuclear deal... a more ham handed approach towards the situation could not have been possible. A deal which could have been possible is now made insanely provocative, due to the bureaucrats for secrecy and desire to go one-up against the opposition in order to ingratiate themselves with the ruling party.
I agree with the other anonymous: there is one public policy and another secret policy. I can understand if they are slightly different but in many cases they are diametrically opposite.
Hi M,
""It was only when we counted the bodies of the dead children at Lal Masjid, and saw what exactly was dumped in mass graves, that we realised that perhaps inadvertantly - things had changed. It seemed that the General had finally lived up to his word. ""
one must understand that to achieve his objectives he got young school girls killed!!! What a brutal dictator he is? He has also calculated very well that religious extremism will ultimately prove disastrous for pakistan. That's why he likes to pull paksitan back to a moderate state where contolled belligerence with India would prove more fruiful to his kashmir policy than uncontolled fanaticsm which may prove to be a Bhasmasura for pakistan in the longer run.
P.S - Any one who wants to take a potshot at Maverick needs to come out in the open rather than fire arrows under the guise of "anon".
Otherwise any friendly writing can be also posted under the guise of "anon". The other "anon" forced me to remove the mask of "anon" which I hate now.
Sorry, it wasnt my intention to hide. AAlso I am not taking pot shots, I thought this was a debate and not intended as wah-wah of Mavericks positions.... I admit I was a bit harsh, but I feel that Maverick is sugar coating bureaucrats a bit too much.
-Ananya
Hi Ananya & all,
Over the years that I have been interacting with maverick, the following has been noticed by me
1) He is very calm & composed not of the reactionary type most of the youth of the present generation are. Sometimes I have let my emotions overpower me but then I have apologised considering that relationship is far more important than such debates. However how maverick considers relationship more important than debates it is for him to answer.
2)He is very sensitive to anyone criticising GOI or its actions. Over the years this aspect of his I have learnt to swallow, though sometimes ....., also these days he has become very circumspect in what he says as I was saying earlier.
3) Nevertheless we all are here to learn from Anandk,kgoan,Alok_N,& of course Maverick. By the way where is kgoan? Has he left the blogs? He was one heck of a poster.
If yes kindly can someone call him back.
Hi M,
Many commentators in the 80's and 90's (for that matter even those well into the naughts) have spoken about the confusing, irritating and downright dangerous "opacity" in the Pakistani Power Structure. This is the picture one gets with tomes like "Blind Men of Hindoostan" and Brig. Vijay Nair's Nuclear India.... right upto BRF's own Laila-I. And how many threads/discussions have there been in the DF on this very matter?
There always have been degrees of understanding (in the public domain) on the Allah-Army-America tripod that chiefly supports our padosi mulk.... but even that seems like a trivial explanation for Pakistan, IMO. Now that things are starting to fall apart INSIDE, the "seven veils" (remember this phrase? :) ) that hinder the outsider's perception are also dropping, right? In such a situation I agree that for outsiders like us Musharraf appears to be on top of things, for now. But the question is how long can he be in control, how far can he exercise control and if he could give us a clear picture of the Pakistani pecking-order (an order which he might create). The ABV and MMS Govts apparently bet on Musharraf's "Golden Path", much to the chagrin of some DFites/commentators. I am kinda jittery myself... but hey, who knows what's actually going on behind the smoke and mirrors.
On that note, what exactly is the source of Mushy's power right now? "America" can take you only so far.... and "Allah" and "Army" have large sections hostile to Mushy, right? A few Praetorian Guard Battalions dominating the key cities is enough to retain power? And what is the pedigree of the JCOs/NCOs of these units?
PS: I had a feeling that earlier post of yours, viz. "Mushy the Magnificent" wasn't entirely sarcastic.
-Anand K
Dear Pradeep,
I am not about to reveal any grand visions.
I pursue only the most expedient.
Dear Mukunda,
I will respond using this label to avoid confusing you with other anonymouses.
As you correctly point out, the young-at-heart types want vivid actions. Reality has a different spin on things.
I only seek to point that out - which is to say, I am my own mouthpiece.
Yes, you are right, he is a terrible dictator, but when I compare him to others that our democracy worshipping folks have done "business as usual" with, he does not stand out.
It is not for me to judge whether the murder of those children was a calculated act or simply an accident. I am not a Pakistani citizen so it is none of my business.
He is a familiar face and we have had the time it takes to get to know him. Frankly despite the poor start we got off to, I think we have done as well as could be reasonably expected.
Dear Ananya,
Parakram was not a waste of money. It helped achieve the leverage necessary to nuance various points the GoI was making with the Govt. of Pakistan.
By not allowing Gen. Vij to proceed beyond his position - the GoI avoided overkill and the unnecessary wastage that would accompany it.
This kind of subtlety is lost on the DCH.
If we are communicating with the Pakistani leadership, subtle acts are enough to convey intentions.
If we are communication with the Pakistani DCH - a different strategy is needed.
Needless to say, but I am ofcourse speaking for myself only.
And no I am not sugar coating anything. I am not one to dictate taste.
Dear AnandK,
You ask difficult questions.
These questions are always at the back of my mind.
And yet... even I admit - Musharraf is Magnificent.
Tell me, which among them - Salahdin, Ataturk etc... is worthy of even comparing to the dirt on Musharraf's shoes?
What has Ataturk done that Musharraf has not? Did Ataturk even have nuclear weapons? Did he ever try to rule a country of 150 Million people? Is Ataturk even worthy of having Musharraf piss on his grave?
I don't even want to go into Salahdin's role in history.
But bhai, which among this lot can compare with the Magnificient One?
And Bhutto or Nawaz, now why should I say anything? do I need to Sir?
Musharraf is probably still in power because there is no agreement or willingness in his opposition to take power. It maybe that the Islamists are not ready for power yet, since I am sure they would like to secure it for the long haul.
Many of the prominent islamists have deep ties to Pakistani military networks and intelligence, and it is possible that they may not feel confident about gaining sufficient control over the financing for their operations. A relatively hidden but important factor is the control over the narcotics and arms trafficking networks that run in the region. I think Musharraf can be relatively confident of his hold on power as long as the people who control these networks are loyal to him or stay relatively neutral. I think this is one of the "seven veils". Since the islamists rely on revenues and employment from these networks for their men, I think they cannot be confident of holding onto power unless they gain control over the networks; which are probably currently under the control of the PA.
Hi Mukunda,
No I haven't left. And don't intend to either.
Thing is, I tend to be a bit busy these days - mainly with travel - and sometimes simply don't know enough to add to the discussion, so I hang back.
But I read the blog regularly and anyone calling me up on one of the comments will get my attention.
Cheers,
kg.
Hi Faizi:
Re: Narcotics etc smuggling:
There's a point here that I think we ought to keep in mind.
The heart of the pakee narcotics, arms, nuke smuggling etc, is *not* the narcotics, arms or nuke stuff per se, but rather the *distribution* network.
It's vital to grasp this point.
It's the control of the distribution network, and the sole knowledge of where the crucial nodes, are that gives the pakees real leverage.
Control over the network is *everything*. Because once you have, you have total control of what gets where - narcotics, arms, nuke stuff and especially *people*.
In a sense, the pakee control over the distribution networks is a small scale version of Spykmans Rimland thesis - control the LOC's (Lanes Of Communication) and you have power over people and things that need to use those lanes.
The financial aspect operates in a similar way. In that case, the "Lanes Of Communication" are knowing where and which banks to deal with and how the banking chain works for conflict economy cash/black money - New York banks linked to Russian banks linked to banks in Mauritius linked to banks in Vanuatu or Nauru etc.
Besides the hawala channels, I haven't read or seen anything that says the pakees have an entry into the money channels since BCCI got done over, although there must be some "arrangement/agreement" that finances the other stuff.
(The west, like any good mafiosi, clearly didn't like a bunch of snot nosed darkies getting in on their turf/racket).
I'm fairly certain that one of the major aspects of Pakee leverage is their control and knowledge of the distribution networks for the other stuff.
kg
Folks:
Let me say that again:
Faizis' point about the Pakee control of the distribution networks is vital to grok.
It's crucial to Paks external economy of power.
After 911, it seemed as if the US was bent on destroying the Pakee networks.
But they didn't. Instead they seem to have tried for a hostile *takeover*. They clearly weren't interested in destroying or uprooting the networks, they simply wanted to control them - which tells us something about the usefullness of what the Pakees had and it's potential as leverage.
At this stage, it *seems* to me that the Pakees have maintained control even with the US. (I say that because otherwise it would be impossible for the Iraqi Jihadis to keep turning up in Afghanistan and vice-versa.)
That's saying something.
kg.
kg, faizi,
the implications for the drug trade on pakistan's internal dynamics are probably complex ... however, the implications for the third A are straightforward ... ever since uncle-ji got rid of bad-for-binness talibananas (no oil, no drugs, how useless), Mush has been the pliant man ... I have seen estimates as high as $500B for the total trade ... cash payments of $150-200M to pak army is peanuts ...
one thing you can help me understand ... assume that uncle's men are making about $100B in profit per year ... where do you think this money is being redeployed? ... it is too much to be kept under pillows ...
... and I hope the answer isn't "sub-prime" ... :-)
by the way, a related question is about routing back of $$ from afghan/pak ... can reverse hawala handle 10s of billion $$?
Dear Alok,
The simplest cure to the sub-prime crisis is periodically injecting the market with money flows from ... well why put too fine a point on it?
Ultimately if in the long term US homeowners lose the value of their homes - that is okay - ultimately no one cares.
It is the short term that matters.
For the US economy to keep functioning, there has to be money flow into the hands of people who lend directly to actual consumers in the US. This flow supports the credit card capital base which allows people to keep making purchases without having the slightest of every paying off their cards.
Without this the entire US economy will collapse. Not only that - if there was a crunch in this flow pattern - American Women - those "soccer moms" forming the feet of the mighty American consumer juggernaut would revolt. Without their credit cards to swing through to buy random crap, they would lose the material placebo that keeps them from aggressively making more political demands.
A shift of this nature would turn US society on its head! Forget about abortion rights, women would march on the streets demanding the historic wrong commited against them in the US after World War II be reversed through a program of targetted affirmative action. Can you imagine what would happen if the women in the US demanded that congress enact laws that reserve 50% of all parliamentary seats for women!
In the 80s and 90s, the US attracted flight capital to the real-estate sector - fueling the boom we saw. Ensuring enough cash flow into consumer credit, is likely to be the biggest focus of US efforts. This means ensuring flight capital flows are predictable and bulk pricing controls are sufficiently maintained in the narco-economy.
In any case we are getting ahead of ourselves.
The Magnificent One - who have gotten to know so well - is a tremendously resourceful person.
As kg points out - the US has attempted a hostile takeover of the Pakistani channels in the black economy. If the utterances of one Omar Saeed Sheikh are anything to go by, the efforts cannot be described as anything more than moderately intrusive.
Now despite his overt subservience, the Magnificient One has been forced to tears. Will the Magnificient One respond in kind to the US?
He clearly drove our negotiators up the wall with his immense sense of flexibility - will he do to the Americans what he did to us?
Who can forget that great statement "Am I a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde?" that the Magnificient One made?
Yes, there are many with the name, Parvaiz, but truly there is only one - whose name stands above others - only one who is truly parvaiz in every sense of the word.
Perhaps sir, it is time for a poem in the honor of the Magnificent One?
Ask and you shall receive ... this is from Pervaiz Baghi, a namesake of the The Magnificent Dude ...
har Khwaab-e-kohan tishnaa-e-tasweer hai jab tak
tum koi nayaa Khwaab na logon ko dikhaao
jaagae huyae sone pe razaamand nahin hain
soyae huyae logon ko na 'Pervaiz' jagaao
an allegory, albeit, tongue-in-cheek, but then who is to argue with the magnificent man ... :)
now that Maverick has opened up a crack for shayari, expect a deluge ... :)
pesh hai from my homie, Firaq Gorakhpuri:
agar mumkin ho lae lae apani aahat
khabar do husn ko main aa rahaa hoon
to whom is this dedicated, you ask? ... well, none other than Comrade Karat ... read on:
khabar hai tujhako ai zabt-e-muhabbat
terae haathon mein lutataa jaa rahaa hoon
and to top it off:
yae sannaataa hai mere paanv ki chaap
"Firaq" apani kuch aahat paa rahaa hoon
adaab arz hain, mian log ...
Alokji,
Beautiful, keep it coming.
"soyae huyae logon ko na 'Pervaiz' jagaao"
Ooh the things I could say about the Magnificent One in this regard.
Kg,
Thanks for picking up on my comments. This is speculation of course, but it would be nice to do an order of magnitude estimate of revenues from the drug trade that goes through Pakistan sometime.
Merry Christmas and a happy new year to you and to others here.
Faizi
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