Thursday, May 22, 2008

Technical comments relating to testing, and simulation

I am attempting to parallel the discussion on the forum. I will add to this list as the discussion progresses.

I am reproducing my comment from a previous thread.

Usually in an high energy physics experiment, you have a beam and a target and then you have an array of detectors situated around the event site. Whenever the beam is turned on - the accelerated particles in the beam strike the target and produce exotic conditions that do not exist in normal matter.

Such collisions create a spray of nuclear fragments which strike the detectors surrounding the target. In order to figure out the details of the collision - data collected from various sets of detectors has to be carefully reconciled and usually this requires a really complicated audit of each detector and its performance.

In any high energy physics experiment - there is an immensely involved theoretical framework to describe what sorts of fragments will be created in a collision. Usually theories of the physics underlying a collision are tested using computer simulations. People who do these simulations usually act and talk like they know what is going to happen when the beam collides with the target. However, at the end of the day - everything they say is just the result of a simulation - which could be wrong or right.

At the end of the day - every simulation only very delicately mirrors the experimental conditions and it is a highly involved and time consuming task to reconcile the results of the simulation with experimental signatures obtained from the detector.Typically - this sort of work takes many many years at places like CERN or Brookhaven or Fermi lab etc... Often times promising theories of what really happened are rejected by new suggestions that emerge in hindsight.

In each experiment - the physicists charged reconciling the results of the experiment to the results of the simulation are hostage to the amount of time the beam is up and running. The longer the beam stays on - the more accurate is the statistical sampling of the collision processes. Reconciling theory and experiments with with low statistical data require decades of experience in this kind of work and no amount of computer modelling is a substitute for experience in picking out good physics.

In general, anyone can poke holes in the detection scheme, the simulation results, and the data analysis. That is easy to do - the hard part is to suggest viable alternatives to interpret the data or suggest a way to use the existing experimental setup to gain insight into the underlying physics. Usually making that kind of commentary requires a lot of experience and exposure to experimental physics and someone who does a PhD in theoretical physics does not necessarily *automatically* have the background needed for this kind of work. Please understand a kid in 1st standard will tell you - "you need to do this experiment again" or "you need a bigger accelerator" etc... but this does not constitute a scientific peer review of any kind.

Ultimately I feel a nuclear test most analogous to an HEP accelerator experiment where the beam can only be turned on intermittently due to cost issues and where only a limited number of people have access to all the information needed to interpret the results fully. In any lab there are usually as many theories of the experiment as there are physicists willing to sit over a cup of coffee. This is the hallmark of a good lab - motivated people indulging in spirited discussion. It is all too easy for scientists in their excitement to demand more beam time and more detectors but ultimately the big boss of the lab has to reconcile the costs of this kind of stuff to the needs of the political system. That is the Boss's job description.

*** Start of comments on present discussion ***

1) Taking soil samples from the area does not imply "doubting the results of the test".

Typically you maximise the amount of information that you can collect from a test event and the soil samples represent an indirect gauge for what happened in the event. You combine information from various measurments to draw a consistent picture of the physics of the event. This is not unusual - this is infact extremely sensible experimental practice. As to whether this is/not done in other countries where tests are conducted - I cannot comment on that.

Per R.C's article on SAAG

" The post - shot radioactivity measurements [22] on samples extracted from the thermonuclear test site have confirmed that the fusion secondary gave the design yield."

Here reference 22 is : “Post-shot radioactivity measurements on samples extracted from thermonuclear test site” by S.B. Manohar, B.S. Tomar, S.S. Rattan, V.K. Shukla, V.V. Kulkarni and Anil Kakodkar, BARC Newsletter, No.186, July 1999.

" From a study of this radioactivity and an estimate of the cavity radius, confirmed by drilling operations at positions away from Ground Zero, the total yield as well as the break-up of the fission and fusion yields could be calculated. A comparison of the ratios of various activation products to fission products for the 15 kt device and for the 45 kt thermonuclear device also shows that these ratios are in agreement with the expected fusion yield in the thermonuclear device."

Furthermore the article also says:

"As mentioned earlier, we have not given the fusion-fission breakup and, since we have not given the composition of the materials used nor their quantitites, for reasons of proliferation sensitivity as mentioned earlier, no one outside the design team has data to calculate this fission-fusion yield breakup or any other significant parameter related to fusion burn."

2) The claim that a boosted fission *device* was tested is made in R.C's article on SAAG.

"The thermonuclear device tested on May 11 was a two-stage device of advanced design, which had a fusion-boosted fission trigger as the first stage and a fusion secondary stage which was compressed by radiation implosion and ignited. For reasons of proliferation sensitivity, we have not given the details of the materials used in the device or their quantities. Also, our nuclear weapon designers, like nuclear weapon designers all over the world, have not given the fusion component of the total yield for our thermonuclear test."

We did not have the luxury of testing the FBF core separately from the two-stage device.

The article then goes on to say

"We tested our thermonuclear device at a controlled yield of 45 kt because of the proximity of the Khetolai village at about 5 km, to ensure that the houses in this village will suffer negligible damage. All the design specifications of this device were validated by the test. Thermonuclear weapons of various yields upto around 200 kt can be confidently designed on the basis of this test."

Furthermore,

"Thermonuclear weapons of various yields upto around 200 kt can be confidently designed on the basis of this (my comment Shakti I) test."

The Hon. Webmaster is technically correct that per GoI official statements, what was tested on May 11, was a two stage device with a boosted fission device as a primary, and not a "boosted fission warhead".

There is no information available in the public domain that sheds light on what RC's comment about scaling up the yeilds means. You could say that the boosted fission primary design could be optimised to achieve ~ 200kT of yeild by achieveing a cleaner fission burn or you could say that that India needs to light up the second pure fusion stage and get to ~200kT.

Consequently Indian nuclear weapons development remains a black box to external observers.

I think the debating position that the Hon. Webmaster has been taking is - we need a pure fusion burn to get to higher yeilds. I am opposing that point of view.

There is no debate on the fact that no *warhead* of the "200kT" yeild has been tested. There is also no disagreement on the fact that no *device* exceeding 40-50kT has been tested.

3) Discussions of the depth of burial, size of crater/retarc, teleseismic estimation are too sensitive to the seismic details of the site.

The seismic details of the site, the height of the water table etc... at Pokharan have never been released to the press. No discussion has been made public regarding the evironmental impact of nuclear tests in the region. What exact impact these may have had on the choice of the burial depth cannot be stated at this time. In his article on SAAG, RC alludes to a number of considerations - eg. the welfare of Khetolai residents, venting of the cavity etc... playing a role in the determining the depth of burial. It is therefore unreliable/not a trivial matter to extend things like the depth of burial to notions of what the design yeild of the devices may have been.

The point about the shaft having been dug earlier is well made. It could also be that the considerations at the time of digging the shaft and the considerations in 1998 were different.

4) The term "wargaming" is too vague.

It means any number of things. A game can have a detailed, intricate and involved calculation (of questionable accuracy) involving hundreds of weapons. A game can also have a fairly simple (perhaps "overly simple") calculation involving only one notional nuclear weapon.

Within the framework of deterrence - a publicly played wargame has utility in a specific context.

For example, if a government chooses to publicly entertain wargames involving large nuclear arsenals vis-a-vis a specific adversary - they will make public the detailed information necessary for the adversary to reach the conclusions it wants.

Alternatively, if a government wants to only have a simpler game played in public, it will release information consistent with only one notional nuclear weapon.

It is not a simple matter to transit between these two game scenarios in a serious academic exercise and it is a very nauseating to go back and forth between these in a single conversation.

4) B. K. Subbarao's point about interference effects is incorrect.

Interference effects are detectable in a particular wavelength range and are sensitive to the coupling between the surrounding medium and device yeild. Unless you know all those things, you can't make any seismic estimates of the events nor can you make statements about the nature of interference effects.

5) V. Sunder's analysis was corroborative regarding demonstrated yeilds but not sufficient to make statments about the design yeild.

I was one of the people who reviewed the paper by Ramana, Thundyil and Sunder. The paper was an accurate survey of available literature on the yeilds. V. Sunder's analysis supported the idea that the yeilds stated by DAE were achieved. It is not possible with the available information to refine the analysis beyond this point to make accurate guesses as to what designs were actually comprised of.

Ramana, Thundyil and Sunder may have had guesses about the design yeilds, but at the time they chose not to include it in the publication. If he has subsequently changed his mind, the thought process that led up to that work is (afaik) not reflected in published work.

Also it may be noted that the paper by Ramana, Thundyil and Sunder was poorly recieved by the NPA community as it contradicted their basic contention that the tests were a complete failure.

If the authors are keen to revise their previous publication, they should consider writing up a complete manuscript and submitting it to Current Science.

336 Comments:

At 1:06 PM, Blogger sudeep said...

>>>> The Hon. Webmaster is technically correct that per GoI official statements, what was tested on May 11, was a two stage device with a boosted fission device as a primary, and not a "boosted fission warhead".

He is not merely technically correct, he is completely and utterly correct, in claiming that unless RC misspoke repeatedly, what was tested was a two stage weapon. A two stage weapon *implies* a secondary thats achieves fusion by way of radiation implosion.

Such a weapon *is the definition* of whats colloquially called a hydrogen bomb, is highly efficient in its consumption of fissile material and can have a yield going to megatons.

That a fusion boosted fission was used as primary is incidental to the whole debate about hydrogen bomb or boosted fission weapon.

Arguing that it was a boosted fission weapon that was tested instead of a two stage hydrogen bomb based on the fact that a boosted fission design made the primary is like saying in the case of a pure fission weapon that it was a conventional bomb that was tested since RDX/Amatol was used to trigger the implosion.

 
At 2:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

".. parallel the discussion on the forum.."

Uhh? When did it become "the forum"? What happened to the .. uhh..."Disreputable Forum" .. or the DF as the term was so liberally used over the past few days?

Why cant you and shive and arun just get along and post on one forum? where is all the laav in the world gone?

-"LOL"

 
At 2:59 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

Mav has been using "the forum" for a while ... I am quite happy with DF ... compact and adequate ...

Sudeep,

Yes, yes, indeed a big "Hydrojen ka pataakhaa" was tested ...

however, what no one besides a few insiders know what was the amount of maal in the pataakhaa ...

hence, it is clear that what was *actually tested* was a FBF because something had to provide all that kT dhamaakaa ...

at the same time, ABV was also correct because the *weapon* that was tested was a thermonuclear design ... the claim was that the doosra maal was removed ...

most folks are not happy with that explanation and claim that there was leakage resulting in inadequate energy density for fusion to take place ...

Is it just me, or do y'all also find this equation interesting:

Con + Fusion = Confusion

LOL

 
At 3:04 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Sudeep,

RC cannot be held responsible for anyone else's misinterpretations of his statements. It is not RC's fault that other people have a short attention span.

The FBF trigger/primary used in the two stage device may be a weaponisable configuration but I do not want to comment on that.

However a warhead is something that can be mounted on a missile and kept in a very high degree of readiness for launch.

The S1 was a device not a weapon.

It is technically incorrect to suggest that it was a "boosted fission warhead" that achieved 45kT.

Anonymous,

It has always been the forum. It was disreputable when *disreputable people* like _me_ posted there.

After we left - the forum retained a stain of our association but now very few of the original disreputables are left there.

Let us see what Shivji and the Hon. Webmaster can accomplish.

As I told Anonymous on the previous thread, I intend to keep a very close eye on this until I am satisfied that the provocation has ended.

 
At 5:09 PM, Blogger sudeep said...

>>> hence, it is clear that what was *actually tested* was a FBF because something had to provide all that kT dhamaakaa ...

If it was a two stage weapon, there are three possibilities
1) Small secondary to do a proof of concept
2) 200KT device was being tested, secondary fizzled.
3) It's a thermonuclear device, with a design yield of ~45KT, that performed as expected.

It does'nt follow from any of these three possibilities that it was a test of an FBF weapon. I know what you are trying to say, (at least, I think I do), I just dont agree with it.

Each of these three possibilities bears important ramifications for the Indian credible minimum deterrent posture.

>>> RC cannot be held responsible for anyone else's misinterpretations of his statements. It is not RC's fault that other people have a short attention span.

RC went out of his way to assert that a two stage thermonuclear weapon was tested, and that it was scalable to 200KT. Where's the room for misinterpretation in that ?

>>>> It is technically incorrect to suggest that it was a "boosted fission warhead" that achieved 45kT.

It's incorrect from all angles to say that it was a boosted fission warhead, that achieved 45KT. It was a two stage thermonuclear device, (weaponized or not) as per RC's statement.

 
At 6:57 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

> I know what you are trying to say, (at least, I think I do), I just dont agree with it.

well, well ...

lemme put it this way ... just for a moment, let me pretend that I was the dude responsible for developing India's nukes ... how would I handle it?

knowing the "argumentative Indian" and the propensity for "Know-all-ness" of even DDM, I would be very deliberate in spreading misinformation and making half-statements ...

Here are some ways, I would do it:

1. Make everyone believe that I am copying west onlee ... there are sites like Wikipedia which convert every T,D&H into nuke experts overnight ... I will make sure that I worship at Teller-Udam shrine onlee ...

2. I will leak some info to the Media in which I will place (as opposed to "emplace" which is a verb in vogue among the nuke experts) a lot of importance to the depth of my shaft ... (as opposed to the length and diameter of my shaft as I have done in the past) ...

3. I will hope that someone will recall that India has the deepest shaft at KGF (> 3000 m) operated by TIFR ... of course, no one will do any such thing cause it takes thinking ...

4. I will let it slip in some press conference that we tested some "sub-kT" devices ... then I will sit back and watch how many yarns get spun about what I tested based on this snippet of so-called "information" which actually said nothing ...

5. What would be more interesting would be that the first of this K.T. Sub (as opposed to K.T Lang who I like a lot) was tested at the same time as two GigaBooms and the 2nd and 3rd such Subramaniyams were tested on Day 2 when no seismic signature was generated ...

6. Opportunistically, I would coin the phrase: "If a K.T. Subramaniyam goes boom in a shaft but there was no Uncle there to hear it, did it really go Boom?"

7. Now, all we would be left would be one, yes mind you, JUST ONE LOUSY SEISMIC RECORD, of the combined power of GigaBooms ... I will watch with suppressed laughter at the number of papers that will get written about these waveforms which are probably doctored by all involved agencies ...

8. It is just a lousy waveform with arbitrary units for the y-axis ... NPA will scale it down, I will scale it up, the Russians would be confused anyway until some ex-KGB Yuri Dude writes a tell-all book ... Fantastic!

9. At this point, the Mountains erected out of Molehills are being called Himalyan Blunders ... the job is mostly done ...

10. But wait ... should I not enjoy a little at the depth of theories being spouted? ... to name a few: "partial burn", "ignition failure", "ignorance of equation of state", "wrong Hohlram design", "leaky nukey", "fizzle shizzle" etc etc ...

Now, dear Sudeep, let us examine your claim where I started of:

>I know what you are trying to say, (at least, I think I do), I just dont agree with it.

I have removed the confusion by by actually saying "what I was trying to say" (a rare feat these days) ... now, please tell me why you are in such violent disagreement?

 
At 10:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

>>>> I have removed the confusion by by actually saying "what I was trying to say" (a rare feat these days) ... now, please tell me why you are in such violent disagreement?

lol..

Its just a disagreement, nothing violent about it. You have spun quite a yarn, the sum-total of which is, that even the information in the public domain upon which all the different theories are based may be deliberate disinformation and hence there is really no point in arguing about yields and so on.

You do have a point, and its a definite possibility that much of the "information" has no relation with reality.

Having said that, deterrence can not be based on disinformation.

>>>> lemme put it this way ... just for a moment, let me pretend that I was the dude responsible for developing India's nukes ... how would I handle it?

Why would you do so ? Is'nt deterrence based upon knowing exactly what the other side has, and letting the other side know what you have ? Its not a nice feeling to have, that the long term security of India is based on deception. Strategic deception is a desperate policy followed out of weakness, not strength. This is why I feel that DAE needs to provide more information to the nation about the tests.

Sudeep

 
At 11:04 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

>that is a classical definition ... why do you think that it is cast in concrete?

deterrence in a situation of umpteen tests was one thing ... in the situation faced by India, uncertainty may be the best policy ...

in a technology denial regime, it is good to be ambiguous ... the west has already realized that India has a source of Tritium that is cheaper and more efficient than anything they know about ...

Hence, does it not make sense to boast of a large arsenal of FBF?

think dude, think ...

what exactly are you contributing to deterrence by raising puerile questions about "technical issues"?

 
At 11:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who the heck is chandi prasad?

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewtopic.php?t=4022&postdays=0&postorder=asc&&start=80

 
At 7:23 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

Chandi Prasad is clearly a reincarnation ... I even have a guess ...

but that thread is really going places, eh? ... one expert-ji is "validating sub-critical paradigms", whatever that means ...

on DF if you string together a few words each with more than 6 characters, you appear wise ...

the problem is that Shiv has thrown a real gauntlet ... rather than pick it up, the expert-jis are continuing to throw tantrums ...

the point is very simple ... you can not have an open debate in which one side is entrusted with secrets ... so, you have no choice but to trust that BARC is doing its job ...

its not like you have many choices ... would the expert-jis like to fire BARC and do the job themselves? ... if not, what exactly is being gained by all this finger pointing?

by the way, even the finger pointing is wishy-washy ... none of the expert-jis has yet clearly spelled out why they believe that S1 was a fizzle ...

if they have a clue, it should be simple to post a few sentences, no?

I don't think Shiv will get answers for a very simple reason: NONE OF THE EXPERT-JIs HAVE A CLUE ABOUT "PARTIAL BURN" AND OTHER SUCH PHRASES ...

DF will continue to blow hot air and appear to look wise ...

 
At 8:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

IMO, Chandi Prasad is webmaster.

 
At 9:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous you are right. Chandi prasad is the webmaster himself. lol

 
At 10:31 AM, Blogger sudeep said...

>>>> deterrence in a situation of umpteen tests was one thing ... in the situation faced by India, uncertainty may be the best policy ...

The bomb in the basement deterrence was adopted by India in the face of certain circumstances. Out economic realities, tech. denial regimes, a manageable external scenario and a tense relationship with USA. You are making the mistake of assuming that its desirable to maintain this policy of deterrence by ambiguity for ever.

>>>> Hence, does it not make sense to boast of a large arsenal of FBF?

Tritium we have, but plutonium ? Uranium ? You can do lots of wink wink nudge nudge to suggest different things, but deterrence in the Indian subcontinent will not survive for long in ambiguity.

>>>> what exactly are you contributing to deterrence by raising puerile questions about "technical issues"?

The same puerile questions will be raised by our adversaries too ! and if the foundations of Indian nuke deterrence are shaken by one or two childish questions, then it aint too strong, is it ?

I only want the Indian weapons to be capable of imposing a peace that is on Indian terms. With the current weapons, we are half way there, we should go the whole hog.

Lastly, bade abba, who made you deterrence police to decide who gets to raise what kind of questions or not ? Your posts have a patronizing tone thats really out of place in an internet discussion. If you want to get the benefit of truth by authority arguments, please reveal the source of your authority.

 
At 12:16 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

> Lastly, bade abba, who made you deterrence police to decide who gets to raise what kind of questions or not?

Aree bhai Chotu Mian,

I am not policing which question gets raised ... I am simply disabusing you of the notion that your question is either sensible or useful ...

> Your posts have a patronizing tone thats really out of place in an internet discussion.

if you consider pointing out of silliness as patronizing, you have entered the wrong kindergarten ...

> If you want to get the benefit of truth by authority arguments, please reveal the source of your authority.

my source of authority is that I think before I post ...

for example, you raise the question of how much Pu is available in India for FBF ... your remark seems to imply that there is a shortage ... two questions:

A) Did you think about the problem?

B) DO you have some source of "authrity" to comment on Pu stock?

 
At 12:27 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

one other thing ...

folks seem to be making the following two comments simultaneously:

1. S-1 was a dud

2. Test another S-1

unless they know better, why ask for testing another dud? ... are they secretly hoping that it will no longer be a dud because the design has been fixed? ... what if they are wrong? ... are they willing to have the world unite against them in order to test a dud?

Sudeep called it a deterrence by ambiguity or some such ...

one way to kill the ambiguity is to confirm that it is a dud by testing it again ...

which of the expert-jis will then step up to the plate to "fix" the design?

 
At 2:05 PM, Blogger sudeep said...

>>>> I am not policing which question gets raised ... I am simply disabusing you of the notion that your question is either sensible or useful ...

No such notions here.. I leave such grandiose claims to you.

>>>> if you consider pointing out of silliness as patronizing, you have entered the wrong kindergarten ...

You are only displaying a lack of strength and conviction in your own arguments by resorting to silly put downs. I have a really thick skin, these dont bother me :-)

>>>> for example, you raise the question of how much Pu is available in India for FBF ... your remark seems to imply that there is a shortage ... two questions:

>>>> A) Did you think about the problem?

Why don't you calculate the amount of megatonnage generated by what we may have, apply some attrition formula and see if you can then impose a peace of your choosing.

>>>> B) DO you have some source of "authrity" to comment on Pu stock?

What do you want to prove by this deliberate misspelling ? Its distracting, besides showing you up as someone with a chip on your shoulder.

To answer your question, I don't have the numbers, perhaps no one but a handful do. There are ranges taking into account different scenarios. With a lack of clarity to both the Indian public and external observers, this number is ambiguous. This may be sufficient to deter some adversaries, may not be sufficient in all cases. This posture is certainly not sufficient to impose solutions of our choosing.

>>>> 1. S-1 was a dud 2. Test another S-1 unless they know better, why ask for testing another dud? ...

This is silly, and your claim to fame is you think before you post ? :-D

>>>> are they secretly hoping that it will no longer be a dud because the design has been fixed? ... what if they are wrong? ... are they willing to have the world unite against them in order to test a dud?

Ahh.. now I can see the wheels spinning. These are issues that need to be thrashed out and are part of a valid argument. Resuming a testing program assumes that there will be resources invested into making the designs work, and having a commitment to having a full range of nuke weapons with adequate yield for all scenarios.

 
At 4:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

arre forget this alok n guy..he used to create a lot of ruckus on df too and ramana used to bail him out..but he pushed around one time too many and got banned..basically has some ego issues? wonder why, profs academics are dime a dozen on brf..lzjjl

 
At 5:58 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

forget dimes and forget dozen ... anonymous dudes are "chavanni chaap" in these here parts ...

this latest incarnation is probably not worthy of being a dog, but even so ...

something about dogs barking and an elephant listening to his i-tunes ...

Sudeep,

you have no clue how many collective hours were spent by Arun_S and I on the Pu stock issue ...

rather than do useful thinking, or even reading up what others have thought, you just hang out and call others on their "ego" and what-not ...

somehow the DCH regard this as useful activity ...

carry on ... why bother with folks who have no answers but love to ask useless questions that have been answered before ... sigh ...

you and anonymous are ade for each other ...

one DCH dude thinks he understands enough to ask questions ...

the other DCH thinks that he is Mahavir Chakra material because he can abuse someone anonymously ... LOL

 
At 6:11 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

Mav, Kg et al,

what is your take on this point that has gone over DCH head as exhibited below:

> This is silly, and your claim to fame is you think before you post ? :-D

I have been wondering about likely reasons for failure (don't worry I won't type them here ... there is always email) ...

my main line of attack has been to isolate likely unknowns and then classify them according to the type of knowledge that is missing ... next, the idea is to see if further testing can shed light on the quantity in question ... on DF someone had posted hydrodynamic instabilities as an issue ... take that for example ... it is not at all clear to me that the best way to study the problem s to dig a hole in the ground, place your latest patakhaa in there and go for TerraBoom ...

there are many such points of failure ... folks generally talk about EOS but then no one is clearly spelling out the parameters ... I have some guesses but I wonder what all the expert-jis are thinking when they talk of EOS ...

secondly, there is the game theory aspect of testing ... let us say that you have a probability P that your test will succeed and that politically you are prepared for N tests ...

for a given value of N, we can estimate the minimum value of P ...

what the DCH did not catch on is that P may well be as low as 5-10% ... in this reverse calculation, what value of N is politically feasible? At what cost?

--------

Now, I will wait for all forms of DCH and Anonymous monkies to jump up and down with insults and ego and what not, but not one of them will take the time to go read for 100 hours, think for another 50 before posting for 2 minutes ...

----------

 
At 7:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maverick and Alok_n, I am totally confused on this deal.

My question is: Do you guys think we need to test the hydrogen bomb one more time to have ATV opeartional with long range Agni IIISL?

 
At 8:23 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

gentle anonymous reader,

please read DF wherein Shiv is asking sensible questions ...

because of his stature Monkies refrain from their Jump Psychosis ...

so, wait and watch ... none of the monkey brigade will answer Shiv's question but will return tomorrow in Jumping Bunny Mode ...

to be precise, Shiv's question is this: "If India can stockpile 500 weapons of few 10s of kT variety that are each only 10% efficient, what goes of my father onlee that I should worry about TerraBoom?"

I know this is a tall order, but, please, please, DCH dudes, go against your instinct and do the unmentionable: THINK, THINK, THINK!

 
At 10:22 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Gaddaaron,
There is a basic truth about humanity, 'specially the DOO/Yembeeyay types, and it's called the "Color of the Bikeshed". That pretty much sums up what we are seeing there on the thread. Well, except for that couple of guys who can at least tell between a Hydrogen Bomb and an ostrich's egg.

BTW, the language and that Parikshit reference that's just been innocuously dropped pretty much IDs "Chandi Prasad", no?

Ciao, gotta run now.
:(

-Anand K

 
At 10:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

>>*Parkshit*

Oops, I meant Lord Krishna.

-Anand K

 
At 4:09 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

Hi Anand,

LOL, color of the bike shed indeed ... does it not have origins in Parkinson's Law?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkinson%27s_Law

by the way, did we have dinner in Delhi a couple of years ago? Are you the same Anand?

 
At 7:00 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Sudeep,

The misinterpretation comes up when you turn RC's statement of "scaleable to 200kT" into a "300kT warhead".
That is your imagination at work - not RC's words.

Alok N,

I have become pragmatic in my views. I don't need the DCH to understand - I think we just want to jump incoherently.

Will need to think about this before I respond.

 
At 8:37 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

M,

take your time ... I am going to spend the weekend working on a sub-kiloton tandoori chicken ...

in the meantime, I think Shiv has come to the right conclusions on DF ...

Also, Ol' Doc hasn't lost his touch ... pesh hai:

"And if we do 25 tests more - we will merely be using up our own fissile material in a virtual act of "measuring and remeasuring our own p*nis to reassure ourselves that it is as long as that of all adversarial and non adversarial states."

 
At 4:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

>>forget dimes and forget dozen ... anonymous dudes are "chavanni chaap" in these here parts ...

this latest incarnation is probably not worthy of being a dog, but even so ...

something about dogs barking and an elephant listening to his i-tunes ...



Gee alok...this tendency to fly off the handle and froth at the mouth is why ur musharraf was booted off the DF.

cool down sonny!!

 
At 7:16 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

LOL ...

Chavanni Chaap low life gets his kicks out of commenting about Alok ...

this is because his Mijjile is sore from extra paalishing at the movies ...

dude, talk to your 4-incher "sonny" which is causing you grief about your pitiful existence ...

if you need help paying Doctor's bills, lemme know and I will throw a few Chavannis in your pathetic direction ...

LOL.

 
At 9:16 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

ok, this sucks ... no tandoori chicken ... instead typing from a hotel room in Bheja-Zyada (figure that out) ...

the DF discussion has made some small progress ... Chandi aka Arun is now calling for two independent teams of physicists and mathematicians to work on figuring iut the EOS based on laser-indiced plasma data ...

at least this is new, i.e., it is not a simple call for *more tests* which the monkey brigade is pushing ...

gentle readers may recall that more tests without any new insight is silly ... none of the Jumping Monkies have posited any new insights, hence one is forced to conclude that their calls are largely silly ...

Nopw, Arun is different ... he has analyzed the problem ... what he is asking for is these two teams etc ... however, I believe evn he is mistaken ... the problem is even deeper (IMVVHO) ... I do not wish to insult any of the SciCom because I greatly respect what they have achieved under the circs ... yet, there are pieces missing, or so folks would have us believe ...

if indeed pices are missing, there is a very deep problem which no amount of jumping monkies can resolve ...

 
At 9:28 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

Is this the same Pradeep who posts here? ...

I do believe more damage was caused by the constant questioning of the yields and the put down of the key people. Not that there cant be merit in the questions themselves. But not in a public forum. Possible saving grace is a sad hope of the insignificance of the forum in strategic circles. "

... if so, I heartily nominate him for TUBELIGHT OF THE MILLENIUM AWARD ...

it is as if he hasn't read any of the posts here for like 6 months ... good grief!

the only asmusing aspect is that he is left hoping that DF is useless ... LOL!!

 
At 12:34 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

>>>LOL ...

Chavanni Chaap low life gets his kicks out of commenting about Alok ...

this is because his Mijjile is sore from extra paalishing at the movies ...

dude, talk to your 4-incher "sonny" which is causing you grief about your pitiful existence ...

if you need help paying Doctor's bills, lemme know and I will throw a few Chavannis in your pathetic direction ...

LOL.



dear alok, my mijjile is sore thanks to your lips

and as u shud know its a 8 incher

now remove the carnation behind your ear, and seek a new line of work

i am really sorry about ur poor financial situation, perhaps u shud have looked for a good career instead of being a 2nd grade loser at a 2nd grade place, naa

 
At 12:37 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

>>>the DF discussion has made some small progress ... Chandi aka Arun is now calling for two independent teams of physicists and mathematicians to work on figuring iut the EOS based on laser-indiced plasma data ...

gee i nominate above for dumbass of the year award!

that is what arun has been saying for past six months but only now has alok n from DU (disreputable university lol) noticed it

where was he for past six months, paalishing his missile and dancing with musharraf?

 
At 4:15 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maverick, thoughts?

Arun S writes:

Shiv sahib, I am sure you know that RC and DAE was not given just 48Hr to deliver the objectives. DAE was directly under PMO since Mrs Indira Gandhi, and got all the necessary support from the highest office of the country. Indira Gandhi, Rajiv and most importantly PVN Rao gave them mandate to be ready to deliver when the time comes, at the expense of funds and labor and limbs of defense forces. DAE got ample heads up and dry run of how they will be asked to deliver during the first short lived govt of ABV too. You give DAE very generous rope when you say they got 48 hrs to deliver, when in reality they got many years, with the caveat that it will be a rare and possibly one time opportunity for DAE and India to test to their hearts content and DELIVER.

When the time came DAE did deliver something:
1. A successful S2 pure fission test (~12 Kt yield) from the inventory from the 1974 vintage version.
2. Demonstrated capability of mastery of fission weapons with the 3 sub critical tests.
3. Demonstrated competence of boosted fission weapons with the primary of S1 weapon.

But did they deliver all MUST HAVE goods that PMO required?
Let me list what they did not deliver in spite of all the funds and also adequate support/cautions:
1. Fusion was identified within DAE as the next stop after 1974 test. Fusion was explicit deliverable that DAE asked for and PVN Rao granted all necessary things during his tenure. That was a commitment not a commitment to try Fusion.

2. DAE put all eggs in one basket for Fusion weapon design. Review and lab facilities available to experimentally validate aspects of weapon design were not used (CAT/Indore was available but not used, so supremely confident the design team was, but eventually it turned out to be empty boast).


3. When the once in a lifetime orders (& opportunity) came to test to their hearts content, DAE was totally unprepared to deliver Fusion weapon. When the S1 seriously underperformed on Day-1 DAE had no fall back plan to test any other/second Fusion weapon design. Any reasonable program plan would have called for a fusion weapon design that will meet the PMO's BUSINESS REQUIREMENTS for this type of weapon which is as someone said "Effects of Effect". Viz an unambiguous big Fusion weapon test of many hundred KT yield to confidently declare to the world that India has arrived and "India had Big Hydrogen Bomb" something that PM ABV blurted out first only to recount and modify it to something irrelevant and not meeting BUSINESS REQUIREMENTS that were SPECIFIED to DAE.

That alternative fusion weapon design (however sub-optimal it might have been) should have gone in a test shaft for the second round. But no, RC was forced (and by implication India was forced) to eat humble pie by ordering S6 to to be pulled out of the shaft because he forgot to make the correct stuff (plan B stuff) that will work no matter what, for that S6 shaft.

That is the biggest "Night soil" on DAE's face, because the price India has/had to pay for that mistake & many future generations of Indians will have to pay in one way or another. And yes let us not forget to thank DAE and RC for all the gut wrenching, sick feeling, hair pulling, teeth gwaning frustrating discussion on BRF related to Indian strategic deterrence, options, testing, Hyde and Jackyll etc etc.. No BRF fun without that gift from DAE.

Fusion was the major deliverable for Pok-II and it seriously compromised the deliverable required off DAE in exercising that "Silver bullet" of an opportunity with all the grave risks it entailed to India.

4. The 3 sub-kt experiments had many objectives. Unfortunately apart from proving Indian mastery in fission design. Those experiments it turned out were poorly designed. And by Indian lucky providence one of them worked in a way that gave clean data for a set of crucial parameters. {Fortunately this lucky sub-kt test will prove invaluable in fixing the TN weapon, not to mention there are other things that need to be fixed in that design.}

5. When finally RC/DAE leadership did use the lab facility in Indore, the lab experiments quickly gave the exact result of what would happen if S1 design weapons is fired. It matched result of S1 debris. Yet another incriminating criminal act of powers to be in DAE weapon design team lead by R Chidambram.
If only DAE leadership used all the money and facilities created at huge deprivation of other military programs. Most mediocre program managers in India in similar situation would have done far better. One does not even have to compare DAE program management to program mgmt in multi-national corporation, much less foreign military PM or Military Nuclear Program Mgmt.

The above reveals no proliferation sensitive information, but exposes serious organizational weakness of DAE and its leadership.


..it kinda supports what i have always believed, goi ends up committing too little to programs and hence dae etc routinely go for maximum risk options with poor program management as a result..
same we can see in many isro and drdo programs..lca relying only on 1 engine, arjuns german components sanctioned, isro depending on american chips, services fully depending on russia coz its cheapest but spares are doubtful..

 
At 5:10 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ulam o' Akbar!

-Now the entire DAE was slouching off and gorging chai-biscoot for 24 years? Is it me or has Arun saar just pushed the envelope? :0
{PS: What's with the heightened attack at THIS stage? This one's a full broadside of chained-shot and heated-shot}

-The ABV executive onlee aided the subsequent H&D Maalish-Paalish onlee? I already have a cpl of guesses on who the escape-goat(s) for this high-treason will be...

-Indore makes a scene-chewing friendly appearance too!

-I also see some stuff that just couldn't have come from the public domain. Is the "dynamite information" being slowly released?

All is Maya.

-Anand K

 
At 5:14 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Alok,

Yep, moi is the same guy. :)

-Anand K

 
At 6:37 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

Anand,

cool, let's do it again ...

anonymous mijjile paalisher,

please show me *one* reference to a call for "two independent teams of physicists and mathematicians" made on DF by Arun or anyone else ...

unlike you, some of us can read ... you could too if you enrolled even at a 3rd rate school ... :)

[btw folks, this little turd of a joker is dying to reveal what he thinks is my real life identity ... little does he know that there is 400% deniability ... but the monkey brain is incapable and is bubbling over ... LOL]

 
At 6:49 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

It is clear that Arun is cutting and pasting from someone else ... the language style is completely alien ...

so, the question remains -- is that stuff above true or just someone trying to spin a yarn? ... none of it is verifiable ...

for example, what "facility" existed at CAT but was not used?

 
At 7:48 AM, Anonymous Ananya said...

What is more efficient in terms of Pu usage: 5 x 40 Kt warheads or 2 x 100 Kt warheads?

Note I am not asking about the effects, purely fissile material usage.

 
At 7:58 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

ananya,

if the extra oomph in the 200kT design is from fusion then of course it does not use extra Pu ... hence, the 2x100kT option is more economic in Pu consumption ... I am assuming that D-T boost is the same in the two cases ...

 
At 11:10 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Mav

Check this out..

http://www.milnet.com/pentagon/india/analy.htm#analyzing

Bugger NPAs with a desi no less and their analysis of first almost test during Bha-Ja-Pas first chance..

And this one:
http://verificationthoughts.blogspot.com/index.html

These guys say the Sub KT tests also flopped..

Brrr....glad ArunS hasnt read all this...otherwise he'll be saying Pokhran never happened. :-(

 
At 11:12 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hey alok...boss..why do you say the post i copied from BR isnt Aruns writing? any reasons or is it a guess?
coz IMO, it reads exactly way he writes it when he is serious..and puts "pen 2 paper"..
Or am i wrong? curious..
And a request..pls dont respond with abuse..i am not the anon whom ur having a fight with..

TIA

 
At 12:13 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

Anon #2,

we can differ in our analyses of writing styles ... I have seen pieces in Arun's posts that are clearly not his ... he is protecting someone ... could be BK or similar entity ... its also not RaviCV's style ...

btw, if all the Anons took up a number, as in post as Anon #1 through Anon #10, I will know which one is the monkey deserving of abuse ... :)

 
At 2:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

alok n, i understand.

btw, why do u think arun s is coming out with all this stuff now? i mean if its on brf, its not going to make a big difference, is it?

coz the goi does what the goi does, and the babus do what the babus do, and the scicom ditto..?

or am i missing something?

TIA

 
At 7:37 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

Arun is asking on DF: "Why 45k?"

This seems to be the sum total of the Info which is in the form of "Ishara" to supposedly "buddhimaan" who are non-existent ...

I can attempt a simple answer that requires ZERO conspiracy theory ...

If I am RC and I have to *simultaneously* test two devices, S1 and S2, I would like to keep their yileds similar ... if I test a 200 kT GigaBoom with a 25 kT pataakhaa, how would I know that the Chitawallah actually worked? ... the Chotu yield would be lost in the noise of Bade Bhai ...

now, let us see if DF plus monkies can refute this argument without gaali-baazi ...

 
At 7:43 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

Anon#2,

I am not comfortable playing a guessing game ... let Arun answer the "why now?" question ...

at this point I am quite convinced that a lot of folks are reading both DF and Mav, so track II channel has been established ...

there is even a track III in the form of anon monkey brigade ... LOL.

[I must say that DF is behaving like Packees by employing jehadi infiltrations ... ]

 
At 8:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks Alok_n. I'll take it.
My 2 paise posts have suggested the same earlier. Dont let that stop the awards though.

I see what you get your kicks out of. Slow days maybe :)

rgds
Pradeep.

 
At 8:48 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

You're quite welcome, Pradeep ... there is a lot more where that came from ... :)

> My 2 paise posts have suggested the same earlier.

but somehow your million $$ post seemed to consider it a fresh point ... this has been the biggest criticism of DF for some of us ...

> I see what you get your kicks out of.

all of life is a kick ... its all about attitude ...

these days the kicks come out of pointing out all of the silliness at DF ... and yes, there haven't been many slow days on that front lately ... :)

so, what is your take on "why 45k?"

 
At 9:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nothing fresh Alok saar. I just tread gently, not having the depth to comment on bum physics.

My take on 45kt? Again dont know enough to make a serious comment. But IMVHO, technical details apart, the Indian mindset has never been one to go for broke. So, if the question is why not 200kt when 45kt can be be yielded with just a 1 stage design? I would say, its just to validate something. Not going for the biggest pataka doesnt surprise me. JMHO.

Pradeep.

 
At 9:45 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

Pradeep,

the following is good philosophy:

> I just tread gently, not having the depth to comment on bum physics.

I share this view ... when I do comment on phyzzx is when I believe that I have a valid point ...

however, it does not stop folks like Bharat Karnad from inventing mantras ...

for the last few days I have been asking for some kind soul to explain to me what is meant by "partial burn" ...

everyone seems to me quoting it freely ...

I can understand partial burn in several situations:

1. The chillum is not fully "cashed" implying there is good stuff left to smoke ... clear case of partial burn ...

2. A housewife claiming that the sabzi was still edible if she took out only the top part ... yup, partial burn alreight ...

3. Some Redneck tries to burn down an african american church but the fire department arrives in time ... sad case, but partial burn is better than full burn ...

you get the drift ...

now, will some Expert-ji explain how a "partial burn" is achieved in the context of the equation of state of a plasma? ...

[I predict an increase in monkey drone attacks because the straight answers will be difficult to fake ...]

 
At 9:59 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

ok, the rot is complete ...

even Monterrey Ayatollahs are now being accorded a place of honor on DF ...

no need to criticize DF any more ... the self-goals have already run up the score ... LOL

 
At 10:19 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

ok, one last post before calling it quits ...

folks on DF should read BRM so as to not repeat history in every new thread ...

I see that PKI's remarks are being dragged up once again ... here is something from pre-DF days:

http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/MONITOR/ISSUE3-1/natarajan.html

 
At 11:29 PM, Anonymous Kanson said...

Hi Maverick

I'm really suprised to see that this is still going on. And i dont see why one has to take so much effort in dredging those useless comments. I mean proof of the pudding is in eating, right? Do you like to taste that through offline ?

 
At 12:42 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

hmm ... this is odd ... no one has any answers?

if I were part of the EB brigade, I would take this as CLEAR PROOF of the following statement:

BK has SOLD OUT to the CHINESE.

[see how that works ... :) ]

 
At 2:51 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

hmm ... more odd stuff ... I was sent this link by email as a reminder ...

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewtopic.php?t=2735&postdays=0&postorder=asc&&start=120

it is about 18 months ago ... hmm ... it also helps me recall ShauryaT ... at that time the dude was trying to sell us that "India has gareed to sign the FMCT" ...

this dude has peddled such nonsense at every step ... clearly a PandaSpy?

 
At 7:12 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Alok,

Sorry for the delay in reply, I was out visiting relatives.

During the visit, I had the good fortune to collect the memories of a recent traveller through the Midwest region. The traveller's opinions were enlightening and offer valuable insights on the nature of the Midwestern economy and its relationships with the world.

I shall attempt to summarise the traveller's comments soon.

The old Doc uses a scalpel where I use a nuclear accelerator.

It was for that reason alone that I left when he asked me to.

 
At 8:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Doc asked you to leave? What ever the hell for?

 
At 10:09 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Kanson,

As I had said earlier - this is far from over.

This is the perfect storm - the DAE can't respond due to proliferation sensitivity and random people can spout scientific sounding bullshit as "credible criticism" of the DAE.

The PMO can't respond because that would increase the vulnerability of the entire program.

As the rhetorical remarks attributed to Arun_S suggest - the entire matter is an undisguised attack on RC and the bomb team.

My dear friend, we getting a houbara's eye view of the whole hunt.

 
At 10:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Me thinks this is mostly about signing nuke deal. RC/AK got the deal done and gave favorable interviews. They became traitors after that. Looks like those who don't tow current BJP line are being shot.

 
At 10:48 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Alok,

There are several plausible reasons for why the full yeild configuration was not tested.

1) Environmental concerns about contamination either air borne/water borne.

2) Technical/Instrumentation interference with other tests or damage to the site.

3) Political compulstions containted in the "Business Requirements" that would have been transmitted between the PMO and the DAE.

Our beloved rakshaks are keen to dismiss these. Despite all that they know about "EOS" etc... they can't seem to do simply calculations like

- How far is Khetolai from the site?

- What magnitude earthquake would cause significant damage there?

- What would the mb values closer to the epicentre be? - so is it really about Khetolai

They claim to be great strategists but they fail to grasp the significance of Shri Jaswant Singh's grovelling before a guy like Strobe Talbot.

- They never ask what was the need to do that?

- They never ask why George Fernandes distanced himself quickly from the "China is enemy no. 1" interpretations of his remarks.

We are dealing with people who like to think that they can actually think - when it becomes obvious with each passing minute that they can't think at all.

You know for all this talk of an equation of state, I challenge them to write down the equation of state for any metal (forget about Pu) at high temperature and pressure.

I would love to see how this claim that LIF can offer any insight into the EOS (at high pressure and temperature) is substantiated.

 
At 10:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

>>>Me thinks this is mostly about signing nuke deal. RC/AK got the deal done and gave favorable interviews. They became traitors after that. Looks like those who don't tow current BJP line are being shot.

dear chap, if there indeed was a coverup, then ak was slapbang in it, since he did the paper on test results via soil samples and what not

so is hamaam main sab....

otoh, AlokN, Mav are right and ArunS is indeed writing on behalf of someone (BK?) who is also wrong..

no way to be sure, is there

 
At 11:03 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

I would like to see this claim substantiated -

"A credible LIF with a competent modelling team(s) to cross validate each others work is the new play field of nuclear weapon designers. But for that BARC had to change its fossilized work culture, that enables two or more weaponeer teams that are constantly reviewing and challenging each other's works. In addition this LIF + weaponeer organization can and will generate technology for next gen fission-less, pure Fusion weapons that some in the P5 are close to realizing."

How is the LIF + Simulations going to be any more credible than RC's statements of scalability?

Also if you continue to impeach the credibility of RC et al. how are you going to assign credibility to anyone else?

Is this credibility going to be assigned solely on the fact that the Hon. Webmaster (or some other more anonymous person called Chandi Prasaad) is going to say that s/he knows them?

Neither the Hon. Webmaster nor Chandi Prasaad, nor RaviCV can make the claim that LIF + Simulations will be credible.

More generally - a cross-validation between teams works if there are no competing interests.
If there is competing interest, a refereeing scheme like this will fail.

 
At 11:21 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Anonymous,

It was my fault, I was spoiling the mood by defending GoI rather vigorously.

It didn't gel with the popularity with the younger crowd that people wanted to see on the forum.

I defer to the good doctor's judgement on what the forum needs.

Again I want to clarify where I stand -

If a case for more testing has to be made - then it can be made based on the fact that no weapon with a 200kT yeild has actually been tested by DAE.

This statement is completely consistent with the DAE's public statements and such a statement makes no reference to the details of India's nuclear designs.

A statement of this nature automatically supports any experiments and benchmark initiatives required for the weapons design while ensuring that no details of India's options are visible.

A statement of this kind negates the need for spouting desultory garbage about the DAE.

It is difficult for me to imagine that someone in India would want to ignore the utility of such a bland statement and persist with attacks on the DAE.

This looks to me like the work of people(either mentally or physically) outside India.

 
At 11:27 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Kanson,

please email me at breadomlette at yahoo dot com

 
At 11:40 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

Per NPA estimates, the pit lifetimes in a fission core is ~25-45 years (depending on who you ask).

I imagine - these estimates are based on the specifics of isotopes and impurities present in the original melt from which the pits were fabricated.

The viability of explosives and electronics and other things is not in the range of public commentary even for the NPA.

Accelerated aging studies is bit of an art - I can't call it science.

You can't refab the cores US-style - you will simply have to replace them.

Yes, stockpile management is a pain perhaps that is why some people say stockpiles should be kept to a minimum.

The DAE has made no comments about stewardship issues. It is fertile minds that have projected the DAE's utterances into implications for stockpile management.

I do not wish to comment on stockpile management costs.

Another comment - deterence regimes discussed in the context of nuclear weapons cannot be extended to space based/targetted weapons.

 
At 11:51 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

Hi Mav,

good to see you are back ...

regarding EOS etc, forget writing down anything, I can't even get folks to answer a simple Q: EOS of WHAT?

folks are getting into Rankine-Hugoniot when they should be able to explain in terms of PV = nRT ...

I thought that the whole issue had to do with EOS of radiation treated as a fluid ... you know, the thingy that is being blamed to have gone kaput ... then what bearing does that have on whether someone measured EOS of thorium or not?

I am flabbergasted at the lack of clarity in arguments ...

vsunder posted something, ramana gave "ishara" to "buddhimaan" and Sanku wemt prostate with sudden dawning of Knawlij ...

I, otoh, got ZERO out of that exchange ... time of turn in the physics degree and acquire a Sanku-brain ... :)

 
At 11:54 AM, Blogger maverick said...

The Doc's point about testing and stewardship is well made.

The US is currently running out of people who have actually seen a bomb design work its way from drawing board to detonation.

In a decade there will be no one left alive who has seen this happen.

The following point made by Chandi Prasaad, underscores the technology gap aspect of post-colonial thinking in India.

"Trick India into beliving that its a Big Boy carrying that gun and is welcome to the Big Boy gun club, making it forget that what India has is Qty-200 of Enfield .303 while the rest of the Big Boys have not just an array of ballistic weapons but also the data & knowhow to continue to make more types of barreled weapons, PLUS a factory too."

I cannot argue with this point - but I wish to state a point that the Chandi Prasaad seems to have missed i.e.

**The DAE has never denied the existance of international technology control**

So I can't see why Chandi Prasaad feels keen to diss the DAE.

 
At 11:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"dear chap, if there indeed was a coverup, then ak was slapbang in it, since he did the paper on test results via soil samples and what not"

Forget Indian Sci Com's papers.

See this report for POK I to US senate, http://www.iris.iris.edu/HQ/Bluebook/bluebook.html and see who wrote it.

See this page in particular
http://www.iris.iris.edu/HQ/Bluebook/chapter5.magnitude.html.

Calculate constants in equation m = C1 + C2 log Y. Use same C1 & C2 for POK II, IRIS average m for POK II. One can see yield is as claimed within tolerance. Where is the need to cover up.

 
At 12:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mav,
Arun acknowledged he is Chandi Prasad while you were away. So quit using Chandi.

 
At 12:24 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

We are under no compulsion to test as neither the 123 nor any other agreement with anyone else limits our testing options.

I the Hon. Webmaster's confidence exceeds his ability to "to validate, correlate, connect dots and extrapolate".

I commend his effort to write an article for IDR, but in the absence of critical review of his thinking - I can't say he has any conclusion to offer that are of value. I am glad to see Hon. Webmaster has finally admitted that he was shut out by the DAE. I had said earlier that those that ask too many questions are shunted out with a polite wave.

As I had earlier state in my posts here, it is possible that he fell into the same lack of direct information trap that most NPA analysts fall into and in that case, we can understand why he sounds like them.

All I see here is someone keen on fishing out the details of how India intends to "scale up the yeilds" (see my previous comment about the deliberate opacity maintained by DAE on this matter) and someone keen on teasing out the details of stockpile stewardship in India.

These are all things critical to the survivability of the deterrent. None of these things can be discussed in public - so I don't see how rousing up the aam junta with this kind of talk helps.

And I see that NTI's nuclear chronology is now being put up on the forum as proof and support for Hon. Webmaster's statements. Needless to say, the "brave" Shaurya_T does not bother to ask where the information on the NTI summary comes from.

 
At 12:50 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Ah,

It appears, Chandi Prasaad was the Hon. webmaster.

You know, Hon. Webmaster would have a lot less to fear in terms of scaring off posters, if he didn't talk so much unverifiable stuff. Also revealing your secret identity is the surest way to shut up detractors.

I am glad finally the role of BK in sensationalising PKI's comments has come out.

Wow.. Putin visiting BARC is taken to imply Russian is "peer reviewing" the DAE and I lecture on surrealism in Indian cinema.

VSunder's comments are curious. I can't tell which side of the fence he is on.

There is no public domain data about the high pressure physics experiments in India. The inferences here are very indirect and frankly I am not sure how you reconcile them what India knows or has unless you actually know what is needed to make a device of particular yeild.

That kind of knowledge can only come to you if you have actually worked on an experiment where the high pressure physics experimental data was reconciled with the equation of state of a particular material.

Unless you do that yourself - your speculations about what India is capable of are... well .. uninformed.

 
At 1:05 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

The previous statement should read

"There is no public domain data about the high pressure physics experiments on WgPu in India."

 
At 1:11 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

Shaurya T needs to read this.

http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/MONITOR/ISSUE3-1/natarajan.html

 
At 1:19 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

Mav,

I had already posted that link above ... but, when one has an axe to grind, worshipping a Monterrey Ayatollah is a small price to pay ... :)

 
At 1:23 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

Can someone give me a direct source on the amount of LiD in the S1 device.

Afaik, that was never released.

The only claims of this have come from BK circa 2000 all that excessive traces of Lithium in the rock stuff.

As I have been shouting myself hoarse here - all the underlying data is basically all BK's maal!

 
At 1:30 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

hehe ... there is no data on

1) amount of maal

2) tritium abundance post test

However, the claim is that 2) is not in agreement with 1) and, ...

drum roll please, ...

there was PARTIAL BURN!!

ROFL.

 
At 1:40 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Alok,

This is bewildering.

The current posting trend on the forum is truly totally bizarre.

Boss - they have convinced themselves that they know how to make a bomb.

All this is apparently the result of Hon. Webmaster's year long sojourn into the physics of the bomb during the course of (not) writing the IDR article.

All I see here is someone who has picked up pages from Mark Gorwitz's bibliography from ACDIS and done some google searching after that.

Tag on a few more "interviews" with BK, BC, and RaviCV, and we have the makings of a perfect storm.

All attempts to convince them that is bullshit are failing spectacularly.

 
At 1:44 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Oh wow...!!

Now they have gone and convinced "satyarthi" that the high pressure physics in the 100 GPa range is of interest to the Indian bomb.

Kya timepass chal raha hain.

This is beyond surreal.

 
At 2:26 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Okay one more try...

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewtopic.php?t=4022&postdays=0&postorder=asc&&start=200

>> 2. Why the yield was set to 45kT given that DAE knew it will have only one shot at the nuclear test series? One can get 45kT using a one stage weapon, you don’t need 2, 3 stage design for that.

Err.. yes, but as the DAE states, the test was aimed at evaluating a more complex design. They were not shooting for a high yeild.

>> Does 45kt by itself has any value, Political, Strategic, Military or Economic?

Militarily it demonstrates the ability to guarentee the complete destruction of a certain dam complex.

Politically, testing a 2-stage device signals to the Chinese the ability to make higher yeild devices if needed. This apparent restraint in the yeild disincentivises Pak-China cooperation.

Economically, it presents a cost effective option for deterring non-subcontinental powers.

>> Why do countries go for a test that is few times above 45kT?
Because they want to prove their capability beyond shadow of doubt. Once a country goes beyond 200kT there is no other possibility but a demonstrated TN weapons capability. (Recall that Pok-II test objective was geopolitical).

Again.. the motivation to test is different for each country. You can't cut and paste other peoples' reasons for doing what they did on India's motivations.

POK-II's geopolitical objectives were to showcase strength - beyond that asking for specific deterrence vis-a-vis non-subcontinentals when the entire escalation atmosphere there is poorly characterised is a fools' errand.

>> Scale up of 45 kT to 4.5 times higher value (200 kT) TN yield, on a highly non-linear curve.

>> a) How can DAE/RC claim S1 will scale to 200kT unless it has traversed the entire non-linear curve when S1 is at the bottom of the curve? How do you traverse the complete non-linear path to reach the upper point? How do you achieve that mastery?

No one is going to comment on that.

>> (Unless the design came from somewhere else, a possibility that we can discount for this argument).

Only the NPA talk like this.

It is talk like this that makes people think "money changed hands".

And BTW..

RC was awarded a Padma Vibhushan, AK was given a Padma Bhushan.
APJK was given a Bharat Ratna

The Bharat Ratna is given to people with truly extraordinary service in several different fields.

By contrast the Padma Bhushan/Vibhushan are given for more field specific achievments.

 
At 3:04 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

My comments on this post by VSunder.

It may be possible to comment on the applicability of TFD (Thomas Fermi Dirac) theory based approximations of the real EOS (equation of state) of certain materials based on published data.

However no comments are possible about the exact nature of the aggreement/disagreement between TFD theory based simulations of the EOS of the specific materials used in the Indian devices. Statements like TFD is "notoriously inexact for doing business" etc... are meaningless unless you know what "business" is. If you know that then you also know talking in public about it is pointless.

Talk of linear/non-linear scaling curves can only be made credibly when you understand precisely what the EOS of the various things in the Indian bomb.

The same applies to any talk of a "gas gun" and approaching certain pressure/temp ranges there.

Unless you know exactly what is being done - you can't comment on this in any meaningful way.

 
At 3:45 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

There is no source of this "200/250kT" yeild demonstration request by the military outside of BK's claims of an alleged DPS document circa 2000 that has never been made public.

Does BK claim this document predates the test?

 
At 7:19 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mav,
I have to admit that the more I read your blog and BRF, the more confused I get. For simple people like me I want to know your answers to the following three questions:

1) Did India's Hydrogen bomb work the way it was supposed to i.e it was indeed designed to give 45KT and did it give 45 Kt?

2) If the H-bomb partially worked, then can the data from the test be used to perfect the bomb?


3) Can India have an effective deterrent without the H-bomb?

Gentle Anonymous Reader

 
At 10:41 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

Hi Mav,

I am seriously impressed by how much verbiage can be typed on a *technical* thread on DF, WITHOUT making any technical sense whatsoever ...

in case Shiv is reading this trhead ... the T gained = Pu lost equation does not apply to India because India is breeding T out of D in the water of a PHWR as opposed to in the core ... T is a byproduct ...

Now, coming to the issue of "extra T levels" claim ... here is the basic reaction:

n + Li-6 -> He-4 + T
T + D -> He-4 + n

Lithium Deuteride has both the Li and D nuclei needed for the reaction ... however, if the second reaction does not proceed as planned, there will be "leftover" excess of T ... or so is the claim which I believe is popularly being referred to as "partial burn" ...

this is, however, NOT the whole story ... there is also the reaction:

n + Li-7 -> He-4 + T + n

This reaction has a different rate than the previous one ... however, Li-7 and Li-6 are both present in the maal in a ratio depending on whether there was enrichment or not ...

The long and the short is that the amout of T produced will depend on several factors ... unless PKI had a detailed knawlij of

a) the Li maal used
b) amount of maal used
c) spark-plug composition/confuguration
d) amount of T produced
etc

there is no way he could claim "excess".

The kicker is that in order to produce T, one needs neutrons ... hence, that implies that the radiation *did* induce fission in order to provide neutrons ...

so, where exactly is the fizzle?

Please continue to hammer with technical questions and reject "buddhimaan ko ishaara" type of cop-out answers ...

[it is late at night, so I can't proof-read the post ... I will correct errors later ... it is too bad that there is no edit feature ... I always have too many typos]

 
At 10:53 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

oh, one more thing ...

the much talked of equation of state, is a simple equation that relates, temperature, pressure and mass density (in a constant volume) ...

pressure is basically same as energy density and temperature is same as kinetic energy ...

in order to calculate the rate of a reaction, one needs to know the number density and kinetic energy of the initial state particles and the cross-section for the inelastic reaction ...

The latter can be studied in the lab and has probably been mesured at the pelletron at the NSC in Delhi ... the P and T (in a constant V situation due to the tamper) are the question marks that need the EOS ...

now, the EOS can be estimated theoretically ... the paper referred to by vsunder shows that Indian scientists had the ability to do this for Thorium (why the heck do we need to talk in riddles? ... this is the "Campa-Cola") ...

the caveat is this ... they had the data and hence could have fine-tuned the model to fit the data ... which they probably did ...

now, what we need is the EOS of the asli maal ... there is no data so one has to rely on the model being applicable ... this is supposedly the "Pepsi" ...

make what you want of this ... more on LIF later ...

 
At 2:49 AM, Anonymous Ananya said...

Alok_n

My stupid question:

Assuming multiple low yield fission weapons are inefficient in terms of fissile material usage, why did not the DAE test a fission only weapon that has a yield of 150 kT which would have proved:

1. A working reliable weapon for the end user
2. A "full yield" weapon to silence the nay-sayers

Or is it that the DAE is already confident of its fission only weapon design? (I dont see how if they didnt test it...)

Was Khetolai the only disincentive? The other reasons given my Maverick seem to be a cop out...

 
At 5:44 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

Ananya,

I don't know anything more than what is in the public domain ... I have bought the Khetolai argument all along because I have no reason/data to doubt it ...

[neither does anyone else if you read their stuff ... there is "motivation" or "agenda" to believe otherwise, but no data]

 
At 5:55 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

The DF discussion has thankfully returned to the technical ... here is a snippet:


Shiv: If a lot of Tritium is found in the cavity as PK Iyengar stated could it be that the design was the mixture of gases?

Arun: No way. A little physics will show it all comes from uncooked LiD that generated lots of Ti but the pressure/temperature dropped when happings started.

So, IMO, this is the first explanation I have seen of "partial burn" ... the claim is that the "pressure/temperature dropped" after producing T (reaction #1 above) but before D-T fusion (reaction #2 above) ...

let's see if this is credible ... we will need to examine the following time-scales involved:

1. rise-time of T in the maal
2. reaction rate for D-T fusion
3. relaxation time of the system

[Note that the entire dhamaka takes about a millionth of a second ... ]

now, both 1 and 2 will depend on the temperature and pressure of the maal, hence the need for EOS ... since we don't have it, we can not claim one way or the other ...

however, for the alleged "pressure/temperature" drop to occur, the relaxation time will need to be less than a millionth of a second ... again, I don't know this number but I will be surprised if this is true ...

take it for what its worth ...

 
At 6:22 AM, Anonymous Ananya said...

More naive question:

*If* 150 KT is enough, assuming decent accuracy of the delivery mechanism (which btw, no one seems to doubt the CEP for some reason of Agni... same arguments can be made against it), why do we need > 150 Kt nukes?

Surely even Panda can be deterred by 3 x 150 Kt nukes exploding on any of their cities. Arun himself has proved that there is no shortage of fissile material

I suppose one CAN make the argument that the fission devices made by DAE are not completely reliable or known to work since they were not tested to full yield.

Or am I being clue less as usual?

 
At 7:36 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

ananya,

without knowing all the details, it is quite pointless for us to sit and define the strategic weapons ...

I have been interested in proving/disproving various claims like "fizzle", "partial burn", etc etc ... it would seem that even that exercise is limited by lack of data ...

so, why worry have curry ... however, there are good reasons to go for fusion doosra:

1. it is economical to be able to use Li-D for extra oomph

2. overall lighter weight

3. don't have to keep re-charging the device with T (which decays and hence depletes)

beyond this, I am quite convinced that guesswork coupled with some clever insertion of ideas into the minds of the people is the sum total of the argument of the "partial burn brigade" initiated by BK ...

 
At 7:39 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Gentle Anonymous Reader

>> 1) Did India's Hydrogen bomb work the way it was supposed to i.e it was indeed designed to give 45KT and did it give 45 Kt?

The DAE says yes.

>> 2) If the H-bomb partially worked, then can the data from the test be used to perfect the bomb?

The DAE says the bomb worked as designed and the information obtained can be used to scale the device to something that gives us upto 200kT.

>> 3) Can India have an effective deterrent without the H-bomb?

The DAE has no comments on this issue.

My only comment on this issue is that the "effectiveness" of the deterrent is context specific and any discussion on this cannot be divorced from a discussion of the costs inherent in building such *weapons* (as opposed to devices of notional yeild).

 
At 7:46 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello Ananya,

Per the DAE, the possibility of damage to khetolai is the only reason for keeping the yeild down.

The other plausible reasons are entirely my own.

I am only putting them out there because "fizzle" is being put out by Hon. Webmaster and Co. as the *only* reason for the 45kT yeild.

I do not know what goes into the actual testing of a 150kT device so I cannot comment about what the pros/cons of letting the DAE do a full test are. I imagine there are proliferation sensitivity reasons for not doing such a thing.

I think there is no reason why we *absolutely can't do it* but I do feel however "DCH penis envy" is not a good reason to go about testing such a device.

 
At 8:20 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Alok N,

Congratulations on finally fishing that out.

I think there is lots more here.

"Basic Nuclear Physics will also tell that 2 stage TN design (with inert mantle) cant be converted into a 3 stage design (reason is Richtmyer-Meshkov Instability). That curve for all purposes does not exist. 2 stage design is a different animal compared to 3 stage (which itself has high non-linear behavior for various smaller 3 stage parameters). So don't count any chickens on scaling up a 2 stage weapon 16 X times in air deliverable weapons envelope. And live for ever with a high volume TN weapon of 45 kT yield that doesn’t consumes much less fissile material, or a yield that cant be obtained with simpler Boosted Fission design. Sounds idiotic for a nation that gets 1 chance to test after ~24 years."

I think it is safe to assume at this point that we are no longer talking to the person we knew - but that he is speaking for someone - most likely within the NPA pantheon.

There is no way to know the role that this effect can play in a bomb without NPA inputs.

The tone of the comment is identical to what the NPA were saying right after 1998 - implication being held out is the same - that DAE is either incompetent or plain stupid. Given that we can only test once every 24 years, the desire would/should have been for a big boom.

The next part of the comment completely negates the tone of the V. Natarajan article and argues without proof that the 20kT was achieved with a 100% burn in the LiD layer.

Then there is this comment.

"The biggest problem with the above postulate is that that small volume cant contain useful qty of Li Gas. (Just use your calculator). The only way Ti molecule can exist there in useful mass is to put it as liquid Ti in a cryogenic thermos flask. In any case the Ti fuel in second stage makes it practically useless from deployment perspective for many reason human, radiation, and short half life. {For boosting Ti gas problem is solved a different way} "

"Well the answer is design a high yield boosted fission bomb, not a 2 stage weapon that is very comples, whose Tritium has to be replaced every month because the half life decay of 12.5 will changed the designed (and tested) Ti density very applicably (for fusion non-linearity perspective) every month. Man this design is not even a scintists cup of tea, much less an engineers cup of chai, or a soldiers chai. IMO this will be a brilliantly impractical weapon design. "

Again, this is bootstraping at its best.

Because the DAE knew it would only get one chance to test every 24 years - it would have have tested a bigger bang that was weaponisable and met the "master's" needs.

Therefore the design must have been a bigger yeild device that "fizzled".

 
At 8:36 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

The logic of this is beyond fantastic.

Carey Sublette has collected information from people that actually worked on the bomb projects in the US and people that spy on projects elsewhere in the world.

It is curious that the only people Hon. Webmaster repeatedly quotes are all NPA of the Sublette variety.

This is an excessively subaltern perspective commonly found in Indian tech expats.

Let me put it this way - if Carey Sublette or his friends in the NPA pantheon thought that you could gain any insight into how to make a *real working bomb* they would not put that information up there on a website.

The Hon. Webmaster seems to have convinced himself that there is information there that can be used to divine the workings of the Indian nuclear bomb.

I think he is reading too much NPA literature.

A few questions for the Hon. Webmaster to answer

1) Have you performed an RHD experiment of any kind?

2) Have you ever reconciled simulation results with actual experimental data?

3) Do you understand the concept of timescales? Do you understand the concept of separation of timescales that Alok N has been referring to? What are the various times scales in the problem? What is the timescale on which the compression wave set off

Right now all this looks like is someone cherry picking PKI's utterances to take cheap shots at the DAE.

Don't give me quotes/links to Carey Sublette - tell me what you think the timescales are.

These are questions for Hon. Webmaster alone - and not for any "helping hands" or "guiding lights" he claims to have.

 
At 12:07 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

Now get this

"Sanatanan
--
Later it was shown by several groups including Srinivasan and Padmanabha Krishnagopala Iyengar at BARC in the early 1990s that the reaction produced tritium as well as helium indicating that cold fusion was real. However, further work at BARC was abandoned due to denunciation of cold fusion by mainstream scientists {read, mainly RC?} and the US government. "

Now is this another Chandi Prasaad avatar that I am seeing or is the "blame RC" brigade picking up new members who have the same belief in the clairvoiance as the Hon. Webmaster?

 
At 12:51 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

no, Sanatanan has been around for a bit ...

but, but, but, is this the same PKI indulging in cold fusion or some other one?

stop the presses ... hold your horses ... wait a bloody minute!

if the dude believes in cold fusion, all his other statements are suspect ...

of course, RC is the big traitor ...

one chaiwallah told me that RC personally put a halt to Bhoot Dynamics &D as a result of which TSP is ahead in its Jinn R&D ...

 
At 1:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Alok guru, your posts are enlightening to say the least. Why did Hony webmaster ever kick you off DF? sigh..

 
At 2:40 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Alok N,

This comment by Sanatanan is bizarre.

The censure of cold fusion experiments was worldwide. There is scarcely a scientific journal out there that did not openly diss the people that pushed the idea way back when. Arato's most recent demonstrations have yet to be published in a peer reviewed journal or repeated in another lab elsewhere.

I do not know what stance RC may have taken on this, but if he opposed it - he was not alone.

Dear Anonymous,

This is the first time I have posted anything concerned with *design* of nuclear weapons.

This is a topic I deliberately steer clear off given professional constraints.

If I am not mistaken Alok suffers from the same constraints - that is generally the reason why people like me don't talk about this in public.

With all this garbage on the forum - people like me are getting heartily sick of jargonised tripe being paraded in the name of a public scientific review of the yeilds of 1998. This is no different from the garbage that the NPA guys came up with back then.

The Hon. Webmaster and his friends defended the yeilds in 1998 because their "Hindu" BJP was in power - today with a "Christian" Sonia in power, they are suddenly coming up with bullshit reasons to question the yeilds. These people have suddenly developed a selective memory and forgotten that RC was awarded a Padma Vibhushan by their own beloved ABV and Kalam was given a Bharat Ratna. These BJP-centric rakshaks are becoming the exact caricature of the "Hindu" far right that the left has so painstakingly etched on everyone's minds. Such behaviour is shameful to my eyes.

Outside of a reference to an NPA publications, I would love to hear the Hon. Webmaster explain in his own words what the main energy and time scales of the processes in this nuclear explosive problem that he has constructed.

I would be very happy to have him put up his idea of what are the equations of state of the various materials used in this imaginary bomb designed he claims to have divined and what precise metaphysical principles he employs to decide which coupling terms in the are relevant for each equation of state.

I would like to know how exactly he has calculated/accounted for functioning of the chemical explosive (HMX,RDX whatever) used in the lens for the primary. Since he has never carried out a nuclear test himself - has he carried out some molecular dynamics simulations of the behaviour of these materials at high pressures without access to serious time on an extremely large computer? Honestly, to someone like me, that would be an achievement worth a few nobel prizes.

If he didn't do this - I want to know how he can make statements about the symmetry properties of the lenses used in Pok-I device in 1974 since that information is not in the public domain.

I would love to know how he gains any insight into his "nonlinear scaling curves" without having performed a single experiment on any of the terms of the Equation of State.

I am sure PKI or MRS would have some knowledge of these issues, but neither will talk about this in public and they don't need the Hon. Webmaster or BK to make technical arguments for them.

The Hon. Webmaster claimed knowledge of the exact actual yeilds of Fatman and Little Boy. I wonder how he gained this knowledge - since determining either of those would require knowledge of the design yeild and knowledge to considerable accuracy of exact altitude at which the devices detonated. The estimates of the height at which both those devices detonated would only be known to a handful of people.

Yet somehow our Hon. Webmaster seems to have this knowledge. The way he talks you get the feeling he was riding in the Enola Gay or Bock's Car along with the crew.

The extent to which people are reading into things is positively bewildering.

Putin visiting BARC is seen as a sign that Russia is peer reviewing the Indian nuclear weapons program.

The mere fact that RC was invited to witness a nuclear test at NTS in 1960s is taken implying that the US transferred the Nagasaki design to India.

The bullshit is reaching astronomical levels.

 
At 2:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maulana Saaheb, aapko salaam. Aap kuch lete kyon nahin. Yeh Chidne ki bimari bahut buri cheez hai.

 
At 2:52 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

anonymous,

glad you enjoyed my post ... thanks.

however, Arun never kicked me out ...

my panga was with one Calvin dude and later some new dude called Jagan popped up ... turns out he is actually an old dude and he was mighty miffed ... LOL.

now, back to the "why 45kT?" question ... I believe that two reasons have been put forth:

1. Damage to Khetolai (which by some NPA accounts is more than a village ... it supposedly houses mijjile paalishing equipment)

2. In simultaneous tests of S1 and S2, the yields of the two could not be too different ... if one tests 200 kT along with 25 kT, then the measured yield of 25 kT will have 100% error bars ...

mind you, I am not claiming that I can *prove* anything about S1 ... the only argument is that I don't see how *others* can prove *anything either* ...

in such absence of data, one approach is to go with the word of folks like RC and AK ...

but, rest assured, for all the cooking up of scenarios against their word, it is very easy to cook up scenarios that bolster their word ...

so, there you have it ...

I can very well also provide scenarios for why there was "excess T" ... but that would bbe very silly because I have *no reason* to believe that there was any excess T to begin with ...

Douglas Adams started his Hitchhiker series with a wonderful point ... "there was this planet with unhappy people who decided that the way to solve the problem was to move little pieces of green paper among themselves ... this struck one as odd because the little pieces of green paper were not unhappy to begin with" ...

Buddhimaan to ishaara kaafi ...

:)

 
At 3:05 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Adaab Anonymous,

Aap paachon waqt ki namaz karo ya na karo yeh aap aur Allah ke beech ka maamlan hain.

Lekin Masjid ke deewar par kyon mut rahe ho?

Maulanaji ki baat chodiye, is gareeb momin ke dil ko dukh pahunchaney se kya milega?

Translation.

Whether you perform prayers five times a day or not is between you and God.

Why do you persist in pissing on the walls of the mosque?

Forget upsetting the priest, what will you gain by hurting the feelings of a poor faithful like me?

 
At 10:16 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

oh well, a lot of water under the bridge ... and it is post #100 after ll ... given all that, pesh hai (from my only homie, Firaq):


yeh maanaa zindagi hai chaar din ki
bahut hotae hain yaaron chaar din bhi

bhari mehfil mein har ek sae bachkar
teri aankhon nae mujh sae baat kar li

raqeeb-e-Gamazadaa ab sabr kar lae
kabhi us sae meri bhi dosti thi


Adaab arz hain mian log ...

 
At 10:30 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

i see that Dr SHiv has a genuine query ... however, he is being offered web links from Bheja-Zyaada-Vidyaalaya ...

if the good doc were to acknowledge that he is reading this blog, I would be very happy to give him the explanation that would pleasure his short and curlies and an explanation that would have Saraswati smile benignly on his forehead ... :)

else he is stuck with the useless voices of his fellow DFites ... LOL

 
At 3:01 AM, Anonymous Ananya said...

Why not provide enlightenment anyway? I am always willing to learn about the differences in various tests :)

 
At 7:02 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

Now that Morland crap is being paraded before the forum to legitimise these attacks on the DAE.

I feel that given its highly excited state - the forum will ignore the specific context in which the Morland article appeared.

The forumites will ignore the fact that the article is actually strikingly similar to an experiment performed by DOE personnel at the insistance of a congressional committee. In this experiment, DOE people were able to gather together all the elements needed to build a nuclear bomb. They were able to get everything but the fissile material needed.

I fear forumites will ignore the fact that Moreland paper does not reveal anything about the details of the kind that the Hon. Webmaster is talking about. There is no way for Hon. Webmaster to make this statement,

" A little physics will show it all comes from uncooked LiD that generated lots of Ti but the pressure/temperature dropped when happings started."


The DOE's apparent success as getting bomb components off the shelf was used to support the idea that *only* control over enrichment and reprocessing tech. could serve to protect against proliferation.

Morland's apparent success at divining the general outline of the H-bomb design was outwardly projected as a case of an ordinary person asserting his right to information. Inwardly (i.e. within the USG and scientific community) it was used to reinforce the fear that the inadvertant releases of information could fatally compromise the nation's deterrence scheme. This put paid to all those schemes to share the "wealth of knowledge" with those countries less fortunate than the US.

I don't expect the people on the forum to grasp this fact. They are too drunk on the apparent power that babbling technical sounding gibberish about a bomb. They fail to appreciate the damage this does to the national interest.

 
At 2:40 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

CAT was never doing anything related to the bomb to begin with -claims about the "work" being shut down are all products of RaviCV's statements.

Deterring China is all very good but lets first ask the question "deterring China from doing what?".

You know it really bothers me that even after Kargil (and all 1760 threads we had had on it) and after watching that entire local instability-global stability paradox play out before their very eyes - these people on the forum are still talking about "deterring China" without specific references to a ladder of escalation.

 
At 6:45 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

well M, you know how it is ...

a few years back I visited CAT along with a bunch of Gora A. Khans ... (even have pictures to prove it) ...

you might say that we were "peer-reviewing" CAT's LIF facility ... but, it makes a better story to claim that we were purchasing the "sell-out traitor" MMS and supervising the shut down of CAT's super secret facility ...

things have reached a point where even Shayari can not capture the fanatsy factor ...

 
At 7:56 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

>> things have reached a point where even Shayari can not capture the fanatsy factor ...

I take that back ... pesh hai:

mat pooch ki kyaa haal hai meraa terae peechae
ab dekh ki kyaa rang hai teraa merae aagae


on DF, the "technical discussion" is again forgotten because that takes thinking ... it is back to folks like ShauryaT and John Snow pulling warhead numbers outta their Musharrafs ... LOL ...

Newton's first law didn;t quite say it this way, but ... "if you're on a roll, keep rolling" ...

:)

 
At 9:44 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

hold yer effing horses folks!!!

you ain't seen nuttin' unless you seen the Nukkad thread ... LOL

we got Djinn Dynamics beat by DF phyzzyx ... Raju boss and his cohorts are perpetuating delicious nonsense ...

:)

 
At 10:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maulana Alok_N(Maney ThreePOTTY) Saheb aur Mulana Sunil S Saheb,

Aap log itna jhoot kyu bolte ho? Aap log jaise Randi bajaar me kachre ke bhav me milte hain.

 
At 10:22 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

anonymous bhai,

I bow to your experience in randi bazaar ...

far be it for me to question your wisdom in randi matters ...

but, what exactly is your problem? did some randi rip you off and you feel the need to post about it?

please, do calrify ...

 
At 10:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Alok, Mav et al,

Please don't mind the anonymous Randi. The whore is peddling nonsense. Keep up the good work.

 
At 12:10 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well, dear me isn't everyone having fun these days - except c'est moi, whose been reduced to slumming it in caravans with nothing but Pilbara Princesses for company - not even a decent net link to keep me amused. . .

Then I come back to what passes for civilisation in these here parts (i.e. Perth, which has all the excitement of Pune in the mid 80s), and find this!

Come on folks, we should be grateful for the educated fools in the world - who else could keep us this amused?

The downside about the educated fools who carefully cultivate their own ignorance is that it's impossible to tell them anything.

See they're *already* "ejumacated".They *know* the truth - or should that be truthiness? And even if they suspect they're wrong, they'll die before admitting that someone else was smarter than themselves.

The DF is lost folks - there's no way back from where they've taken the place.

Their only out now is to wait for the general elections and the BJP to form a govt, thankfully thats a virtual certainty after the recent state elections, and then miraculously flip over and claim they were "right" all along.

Alok:

There's a key linkage in understanding the eos bit. It's to do with the spinodal boundary. The heart and soul of understanding an eos is to find the crtical points and the binodal and spinodal boundaries.

For what we're talking about here, it's the spinodal points, which are the limits of stability of the eos in the phase diagram, i.e. it's where a material is no longer thermodynamically stable, which is what we're looking at here.

If you get those over a wide enough PVT range you want to look at, you pretty much have *everything* you need.

But see once you have your eos, you have a theoretical problem that no-one has been able to solve. No one. It goes back to Maxwell who first spotted the problem - and no one knows what to do with it since.

Thermodynamically, the spinodal on the phase diagram is a sharp edge like boundary. Unfortunately, microscopically it's actually a fuzzy *area* not an edge. i.e. There's a fundamental conflict between the thermo and the stat mech.

Nothing you can do about it. Like the QM/Gen Rel problem. Both give correct answers in their validity domain. Both contradict each other in the theory. Just the way it is.

Mavs mentioned the MD aspects of this siuation. There's an excellent oldie paper worth having a look at that goes through this entire issue:

FF Abraham, "Physics Reports", Vol. 53, p. 93, 1979.

Note that that paper has *NOTHING* to do with nukes, at all. For obvious reasons! It's actually a paper on the thermodynamics of fluid stability. (He uses a simple LJ model, in those days you couldn't do much else).

But, trust me on this, that paper pretty much has *all* the basics of what the geniuses on the DF are babbling about, and a really nice little section on the scaling in the time regimes you and mav mentioned. Note: "scaling" in it's proper meaning, not the "engineer" speak of "lets make chota into maha". . .

I don't think the geniuses on the DF have understood that difference - that's absolutely clear from that "non-linear" rubbish that's being spouted.

But that issue of scaling, in it's proper sense, will give you a really good idea of what's going on in this area.

I recommend these two paper:

H Furukawa, "Advances in Physics', Vol. 34, p. 703, 1985
A J Bray, "Advances in Physics", Vol. 43, p. 357, 1994.

as worth flicking through. A bit old but again, their value is in precisely that they give a clear indication of what "scaling" in an eos sense involves: (Yes I had a hard time not giggling like mad reading the "scaling" tripe on the forum).

Again, these papers have *nothing* to do with nukes. And I've deliberately chosen some really old, out of the way papers. i.e. The engineers trying to behave above their station as physicists will be lost. (Kinda petty of me eh? Ah well, its fun.)

But these papers are worth reading for anyone wanting an overview of the whole eos business in fluids/plasmas and scaling.

BTW: At the best of times, EOS's tend to be non-trivial to find. Approximation schemes abound. Thing is, even the most basic non-trivial eos involves some heavy duty stuff trying to calculate even the second virial coefficient is usually no joke.

But these three papers will give any competent physicst a full grasp, IMO, of what folks have been talking about on this page.

Later folks.

kg

 
At 6:37 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Anonymous,

What lies have a I told?

Nothing related to the bomb program goes on in CAT. This is a fact.

This business of dressing civilian nuclear tech up as "proliferation sensitive" work is an old NPA trick to stamp out emerging energy technologies.

You people are willing to believe that RC single handedly stamped out cold fusion research in India - but don't want to believe that NPA will stamp out CAT's efforts at an ADS fuel laundering system?

Going to a whorehouse has made you lose touch with reality.

 
At 6:51 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi kg,

I feel that the term "nonlinear" is a catch-all phrase that engineers use to describe something that doesn't scale trivially. Engineers are taught a few "rules of thumb" to around which they build layers of linear control loops.

I suspect that the "engineers" of the forum don't comprehend that in most complex media pretty much *nothing* scales linearly to begin with and it is always some godawful approximation that allows the complicated "nonlinear" physics to be shoved into fudge factors and effective charges by dozens of physicists before the engineers every see an expression in their textbooks.

I don't think they grasp that knowing some phenomenological outline of the concepts cannot lead to extraordinary predictive powers. That point Alok has been making for months now about the separation of timescales and the in/validity of a local density approximation of some kind is completely going over their heads. They actually think that posting a few citations to the TFD applications makes them experts in actually using the damn thing to predict yeilds. The stupidity of this is staggering.

I am sure that molecular dynamics part went over their heads also. It damn nearly missed me until I accidentally looked through the program at a recent conference and realised that over a third of the conference was about applying MD to high pressure physics problems. Frankly the intensity of the presentations rattled me a little bit. It stuck me that there was growing desperation to prove that an actual test of the RRW was not necessary and that a large enough simulation alone could be used to settle all doubts about the design's viability. I confess I am watching this situation closely, we may face similar pressures in India soon.

The other problem here is the plague of computational experts. These people think that just because they know how to solve a given differential equation numerically, they can solve the actual physics problem that the equation approximates. I don't quite know how to cure this disease, and frankly I don't know if it is worth trying.

 
At 7:44 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

Wow.. quantitative and qualitative matching with *Pakistan* and PRC.

And then to top it off a numerical formula for the arsenal.

Do they guys on the forum know that India has never said anything about how many nukes it has?

We have never talked about numbers.

Why would that be? Is there some reason for that? or is it simply because "GoI babooze" are idiots?

Dear friends, I now borrow an idea I saw in a book written by Gen.(r) Ashok Krishna.

Per Gen. Ashok Krishna, the pillage of Sarnath resulted in a body blow to the psychology of the Hindu elite in India. For centuries, the elite had worshipped at these temples believing that the mere worship of such deities would yeild some magical charm that would protect their way of life.

Now a little known Mahmud from Ghor province seized upon this weak point and stuck a sharp blow at the core of the Hindu elite's view of sanctity.

In the view the threat that a single terrorist with a WMD poses to the Indian way of life today - I ask you what relevance are numbers in this game?

 
At 7:55 AM, Blogger maverick said...

The whole argument about Asal Uttar has two sides to it.

On the one hand, the it seems that Pakistan is prone to a tactical nuclear usage - either in the Ayubist context i.e. on route to Delhi, or in the Cohenist/Begist context - a nuclear riposte. So the deterrent vis-a-vis Pakistan has to concieved as a deterrent to that specific action.

The deterrent has to be context specific.

Those arguing for higher yeilds need to tell me what they are planning to hit with those bombs?

If it something Chinese then can someone tell me why we are doing this?

The Chinese have never threatened India with nuclear weapons.

If the Chinese decide to threaten us say by conducting one nominal nuclear weapons deployment exercise in Outer Tibet and put Varanasi in range of a stupid scud missile, we will have no counter moves to that.

What is gained by going into this in this half assed fashion?

 
At 8:37 AM, Anonymous Ananya said...

>n the view the threat that a single terrorist with a WMD poses to the Indian way of life today - I ask you what relevance are numbers in this game?

What has this got to do with anything? By this same brilliant reasoning US, UK, France, Russia and China are fools to disclose their numbers.

And yes GoI babooze are fools, (and corrupt ones at that) for most part with the exception of a miniscule few. If you dont agree with that babooze image, then sadly, you are away from India for far too long and have absolutely no touch with reality. That, or maybe your chai-biscoot sessions include some more potent stuff from the babooze.

 
At 8:48 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

thanks for the references, kg ...

time for a break to read up while mr. anonymous scratches his old khujli ... LOL.

 
At 8:56 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Ananya,

The P5's numbers game about nuancing deterrence relationships vis-a-vis each other. The numbers are highly context specific and the details of the context specificity may be found in the concerned country's arms limitation talks paperwork.

The question you should be asking is why has India never given a number when confronted with a size of the arsenal issue.

When you say things like "babooze" are idiots, you are simply saying "I don't know" but because it hurts your ego to admit that you don't know this - you prefer to state it as a case of "Babooze" being corrupt/incompetent.

When the NPA are confronted with this question - the answer is the same - they don't know. So they make up some rubbish about how Indian scientists are incompetent and their reactors are constantly malfunctioning and they are in no position to stockpile fissile material for a large arsenal. This is why the ISIS/Albright-Basu estimate of the Pakistani nuclear weapons exceeds the Indian number by a factor of ten. That is why Zinni says India has 5 bombs and Pakistan has 50.

Look boss, from the perspective of those I have tea and biscuits with - there is no desire to treat you like an enemy. However by continously abusing them when your life is not working out or heaping invective on then when you miss your period - well.. that might just change their mind and they will treat you with the same disdain that is reserved for the NPA.

And then you might be stuck having to live a life with the NPA lording it over you.

 
At 9:01 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

Forgive me but when someone sitting in the US with a paycheck from some US firm starts lecturing on the forum about how the Indian elite is corrupt because it takes money from foreigners...

I just glaze over.

 
At 9:03 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nice post by Amber. G. He will probably called the next traitor.

 
At 9:05 AM, Blogger maverick said...

I think the forum has finally begun to show its true NPA roots.

 
At 9:08 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

What is funny is that I have heard MJA called all sorts of names by these very same people due to his defence of the family.

Now suddenly - the people accusing the DAE and the PMO of treason are running to MJA's defence saying that the DAE and PMO are stifling debate.

The abusers are now calling very people they abused of being abusive.

This is amazingly stupid.

 
At 10:31 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

A valiant effort by Amber G. Let us see how far this gets.

If Radiation Hydrodynamics trivially maps onto the interfacial behaviour of a mercury water - why does one have to do a nuclear test to understand this?

Perhaps VSunder can elucidate.

 
At 11:17 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Now that Amber has called Arun on his BS, let's see how it goes. Arun has not replied yet. Presumably waiting for help from his "source" :-) :-)

 
At 12:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Webmaster pulled his post on "orthogonal" after Amber caught the BS :-)

 
At 12:31 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

I am confused as to why Hon. Webmaster brought up design issues in the first place.

He can't prove he knows any of that stuff.

The best he will do is turn to his "source" and the "source" will have to feed him crap which people will tear to shreds. No "source" is going to stick his neck out for Hon. Webmaster's prestige.

BTW.. why is VSunder explaining the RT instability? the question was about RM instability. Why ignore the difference?

 
At 1:54 PM, Anonymous dilbert said...

As a long-time BRF member and recent lurker here, I have to say it is very sad what has happened to the forum. To put it bluntly, the whole nuke thread was completely phukked up by addition of the honorable "RaviCV", and went downhill from there. However, RCV could not possibly have achieved that spectacular level of destructiveness had the latent tendency not existed in the first place.

Mav, you are exactly right about the influence that RCV had on THW (the honorable webmaster). When he (RCV) first appeared on the forum with his scathing and sarcastic vilifications of the Indian SciCom, he was sharply challenged by a few members, including THW himself. Within a day or two, something (I'm not sure what) happened to change THW's view of RCV, and he suddenly started spouting the same views. I was stunned to see the suddenness of the turnaround. Clearly THW is now channeling people like BK/BC/RCV.

It was almost completely insane on the forum until Shiv stepped in and shut it all down a few weeks ago (and restarted things in the current thread). Most balancing views on the other side (i.e. the pro-deal side) disappeared after the RCV appearance; the level of venom and anger was astounding.

Personally, I don't think the pro-deal/anti-deal question is important or relevant any more, so much as the attitude of THW & Co. They are simply echoing, almost verbatim, every dishonest bullshit canard peddled by the NPA about POK-2 in particular and the Indian sci-com in general. Throw in a little religious fanaticism (Hindu this, Christian that, every dissenting voice is a pseudo-sec/sellout/traitor) and you have a really toxic stew.

The funny thing is, THW was so incensed about Mav, but by spouting off on the forum about this blog, he only gave it free publicity. I myself only learned about Mav when I read the thread where THW was lambasting LDev about this blog. I would not have known about it otherwise.

Also, great to see folks like Alok_N and KG here. Mav, can I email you at the address you listed upthread?

Regards,

Dilbert

 
At 4:33 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maulana Saaheb, salaam.

I see someone called you that maulana like you are found in unmentionable places. But that was not me ( check IP). I know your are not a pimp of that kind.

Lekin mujhe ek baat samajh nahin aati ki aap chup ke kyon waar karte hai. That is very unlike maulana.

 
At 5:35 PM, Anonymous dilbert said...

anonymous 4:33PM

It would help if you identified which particular Maulana your remarks were addressed to.

Thanks.

 
At 6:31 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

hello folks,

I am reading and will not type about instabilities until I have a beter understanding ... however, I would remind folks that examples of mercury in water are not of the same time-scale ...

also, lakshmic on DF has claimed that the instability has been "well studied" in the Crab ... lemme just say that I've personally measured the Crab and there is no clear theory about the Crab yet ...

also, Arun_S is now claiming that I was pooh-poohing CNC ...

arre bhai, context to batao bhai ...

Back then the discussion was about construction of PHWR and how CNC were needed to fabricate obotic arms for fuel-loading ...

now, the same CNC argument is being applied to R-M instability ... back then there was no such mention ...

DF is now plain simple lying ...

CNC are used to fabricate precision gears too ... next they will say, "Alok_N is against race cars because he is against CNC" ...

thoda to sharm karo about what arguments you put forth ...

 
At 8:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

this place has become a vulture club feeding on some other's carcass and other than whining the net value add is shoonya.

from ponga pundits act of calling everyone NPA, it does look like a premptive moove for himself be a closet NPA wanting to lock India into the deceptive deal.

Ponga pundit..what say??? your other dear friend Ldev is not to be seen these days after his cover was blown...he he he..

Whine club's value is only in the reflection from DF...what monkeys..

 
At 8:19 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

how true ...

only post with any value on this website is being made by one Sriman Anonymous Money-ji onlee ...

please continue to enlighten us ...

perhaps, you have also calculated the R-T instabilities in the Crab Nebula?

LOL ...

 
At 8:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous, You mentioned Ldev's cover was blown. Can you explain what happened.

Thanks.

 
At 8:50 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

just to make something very clear ...

no one on this board, certainly not Mav or I, is claiming to have any Knawlij of bomb-making ...

the claim has been made on DF that S1 was a fizzle

all we are saying is, PROVE IT ...

all we have so far is incoherent techno-speak and then a flurry of cut&paste from NPA websites (what else do you call FAS and the public arm of LLNL?) ...

one of these days go talk to folks at LLNL and find out for yourself ... but that would take work -- somehow, doing the monkey routine is easier ... LOL again.

and then there is a "bait and switch" by lakshmic who started out by talking about R-T instabilities and then ended up describing the fission detonation ...

no one (even on DF) has argued that the lenses in the fission devices did not work ... the instabilities were supposed to be in the radiation channel ...

so, what evidence is there that the radiation channel had instabilities? ... for all I know, NPA have posted that garbage on the website to make SDRE shake in their dhotis and say: "me no try TerraBoom because me no understand R-M instability" ...

but, if you are so concerned, try to think about what could possibly be the issue ...

for the last friggin' time folks, just pull out your calculator and understand some basic time-scales ...

speed of light is such that radiation from the primary to the secondary will traverse in about 3-5 NANO-seconds (depending on the refractive index of the foam or whatever is in the channel) ...

typical interaction of photons with atoms can take 1-10 nanoseconds ... so the first question is whether the photon flux can be treated as a fluid and secondly, whether the imperfections on the casing surface be treated as seeding sites ... basically, "how many interactions does it take for the collective behavior to become fluid-like rather than single particle interaction?" ...

further, does the treatment have to be quantum? ... why or why not? ... if quantum, then is there a quantum version of the R-M instability?

if someone can PROVE this (even with the help of cut & paste) please do so ... which equation am I supposed to use?

secondly, we come to the "radiation pressure", a term which in itself needs explanation ... can someone explain what is meant by "pressure" here? ... is it the same as energy density? ... if not, why not?

my first guess would be that the photon flux from the primary would ionize the hell out of everything ... so, what pressure are we talking about?

also, by the way, why is there talk of "x-rays"? ... are these a few kilovolt photons or hundreds of kilovolts? ... there is a big difference ... photons with fractions of an MeV are usually called "gamma rays" so I would infer that we are ytalking of sub 100 kV photons ... can anyone confirm?

alright, so these photons were supposed to generate a "pressure" (whatever that is) but instead ending up making "fingers due to R-M instability" ... WOW .. ok, so what's the biggie? ... why are fingers so bad (is some anonymous monkey giving you the finger?) ...

if someone can explain why "fingers "are detrimental to p"pressure" please type a few sentences ...

in fact, I am getting tired of typing ... I doubt anyone will answer any of these questions ...

so, please carry on with ANY TECHNO-BABBLE THAT HELPS YOU VENT THAT MMS IS A SELLOUT AND RC IS A CHUTIYA AND AK IS A GAANDU ...

all bakwaas, LOL.

 
At 9:08 PM, Anonymous ldev said...

Anonymous, You mentioned Ldev's cover was blown. Can you explain what happened.


What cover? I am very much around.....just do not have time right now to plough into all that is happening on the Forum as well as here.

But I promise I will.... just as soon as I get some time.

 
At 10:00 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

ldev,

your cover(mantle) was supposed to be blown ... but, it FIZZLED due to a R-M (Ridiculous-Malicious) instability that produced fingures in your skin ...

what a sell-out traitor! ... now you are reduced to a FBF (Fatwa-Boosted-Fakir)

:)

 
At 3:30 AM, Anonymous ldev said...

but, it FIZZLED due to a R-M (Ridiculous-Malicious) instability that produced fingures in your skin...

alok_n,

thanks :)

I have been very busy with rozi roti business for the last month or so. Unfortunately that is also the time that things have begun hopping on the forum as well as here and regretably have not been able to participate.... once you dip your oar in the water you have to be around for some time...otherwise the malicious ones assume that you have run away

 
At 6:04 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I noticed that LDev stopped posting almost from the time I pointed out that Ldev was spinning his discussions with RaviCV in which Ldev quoted Dr. Baldel Raj and later spun it as quoting RC and how RaviCV felt sorry about. He didn't any such thing. He was just being respectful for Dr. Baldev Raj. Basically ascribing wrong motives to the person.

Anyway..apologies if you were busy with rozi roti. Hoping to see your posts (and spins :-))

 
At 6:31 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Dilbert,

yes please use that email to contact me.

 
At 6:35 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Anonymous,

I am PNGed at the forum and quite frankly I am happier for it.

The last thing I would want on my soul is to have this entire fiasco go down on my watch as an admin/forum member.

If this discussion was not a complete mess I would not have participated in it.

The way I would look at it is that if a passed over washout drunk from the forum like me is upset by the tone of the discussion there, then there must be something really wrong with that.

 
At 7:01 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello,

With regards the CNC issue, again, I stand by my assertion that the lack of progress on *high volume* production of PHWRs/FBRs is due to the shortage of quality manufacturing equipment.

This became the focus of friction between me and Alok N on the forum due to unavoidable reasons.

Presently what little equipment there is - it is tied up to existing projects and this creates huge lead times on critical components.

Also the absence of excess production capacity robs the programs of the all-important industrial push required in times of trial to get things moving.

Currently purchase of CNC/other advanced machining rigs is limited via technology control regimes and this is restricting the development of the civilian nuclear energy sector while being completely ineffective in controling any weapons proliferation globally. India is no exception to this global failure mode of the current implementation of the NP conceptual framework.

When I made the point about CNC I was saying that the current NP framework (though conceptually probably still sound) is poorly suited to meeting global needs (General(r) Gard are you listening? - this is the point Mr. Gaffney was making or that Stephen Hadley made in his speech - "necessary but not sufficient").

The relaxation of the specific NP control protocols in the case of India is an effort in evolving the NP framework to deal with evolving global environment.

An obsessive insistence on adherence to outdated protocols (albiet evolved from sound concepts) will only provoke the precise conflicts that the NP framework hopes to avoid/hedge against.

Restricting the access of states to viable environmentally friendly energy technology will create the exact situation/conflicts that the NP conceptual framework has toiled so hard to avoid.

Forcing the Indians on FMCT CTBT garbage when the US itself will soon discard these protocols is unlikely to win favour in India. Such behaviour will potentially alienate a valuable ally in an uncertain future.

I believe that the US needs India to be the source of cheap and reliable services despite the fluctuating fortunes of the dollar. Without Indian help - either overt in the form of RBI interventions to artificially bouy the relationship or covert support via indo-centric hawala channels the US is quite simply *sunk*.

The price of this support is relaxation of trade barriers on hitherto forbidden technologies.

India is more than happy to guarentee that such a trade will not be used to make weapons targetted at the US or any participating P5 state. That is the best thing you could ask for -
infact it is far in advance of any guarentees that you can provide.

Recall for a moment Sri. Kalam's example of the beryllium trade where the US was importing beryllium from India for making weapons but it was refusing to sell critical beryllium related technology to India citing that India might make weapons. This is an example of the kind of excessively self-centered thinking that passes for US foreign policy at the present time. Whether you attribute this to a lack of maturity in American foreign policy or to a simple lack of deductive powers in the adminstration officials who concieved this masterpiece is irrelevant at the present time.

Without a relaxation in the controls on technology exports from the US to India, no profitable trade is possible and consequently it will be impossible to defray the cost of bribing/greasing the parliametary wheels in both countries. It is in the interest of political formations in both countries to ensure a safe passage of the 123 agreement - all public posturing nonwithstanding. Politicians in both countries know that they need "get out the vote" money and that is going to come from only one places in a contracting domestic US economy - i.e. - profitable foreign trade.

Achieving a working understanding on this matter *is* likely to be the cornerstone of future US-India relations.

I am not stating something secret here - India's foreign relations mantra is "live and let live", all I am pointing out is that there is a very terrifying flip side to that.

And lets face it - if two democracies cannot visibly achieve such an understanding - that strengthens the global stature of dictatorships.

 
At 7:03 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Anonymous,

Why do you feel the need to use caste based slurs? Do you think that is valuable contribution - or an abuse of your privileges here as my guest?

What value do you add to this discussion or to the discussion on the forum - besides the caste based slur here?

 
At 7:06 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

"... if a passed over washout drunk from the forum like me is upset by the tone of the discussion there, then there must be something really wrong with that."

Bingo!

I had pretty much lost all connection to DF ... its been over a year since I was banned ... but, when I started reading the absolute crap being posted and the DCH buying into it, I decided to publicly start critiquing it ... you website is a perfect platform because there is cross-readership ...

for example, my thanks to KSKumar dude for keeping DF honest ...

please note that Shiv's new thread has entered page 4 but NO NEW GYAAN ON FIZZLE YET ...

there is plenty of back-slapping and self-congratulations on how lucidly everything is explained ...

:)

but, but, boss log, can we please have one iota of gyaan from your vast Knawlij of why S1 fizzled?

 
At 8:10 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Alok,

There is no answer on the time-scales and the energy scales in which the relevance of the various terms in the EOS changes for various materials.

Instead we are seeing more unverifiable phenomenological bullshit about x-rays compressing things and tampers and primaries and lenses that aren't placed symmetrically (which btw contradicts Hon. Webmaster's tirade about DAE not distoring symmetry in POK-1 - allegedly a Nagasaki design.)

I would like thank KSKumar for his effort.

 
At 8:15 AM, Blogger maverick said...

I suspect that people on the forum don't get the dividing line between fluid-like behaviour of a substrate at high pressure and temperature and the behaviour of the actual radiation flux as a fluid.

With gaping holes like this in their understanding, junta is talking about "peer reviewing" RC's work.

Wow !!

 
At 8:18 AM, Blogger maverick said...

If everything is as simple as deforming a ball of dough, or blowing air into a ballon, or looking at the interfacial layer of mercury and water, or looking at the Crab Nebula... why do you need a nuclear test?

Just squeeze some dough, blow air into a balloon, or look at a fluid dynamics experiment or stare at the Crab Nebula!

And jump up and down claiming you has just designed a nuclear weapon.

 
At 8:27 AM, Blogger maverick said...

I note how Anant is trying to connect *all* shifts in precision machining to increases in production of weapons.

And where is this from? ah.. LLNL -Lawrence Livermore National Labs - the home of the NPA.

Boss are Indian junta abroad so incredibly fucking stupid? that they can't see this setup?

The NPA have been trying to colour this civilian nuclear deal as something that will improve India's ability to make nuclear weapons.

Now magically someone shows up on the forum and makes the case that a fusion based nuke will require a very high level of precision and then quite subtlely another chap shows up with a link to LLNL that says yeah.. umm all precision machining growth is related to making weapons.

How much more obvious does this have to be?

 
At 9:23 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

>"Just squeeze some dough, blow air into a balloon, or look at a fluid dynamics experiment or stare at the Crab Nebula!"

very true ... but it turns out that you can also do it by just watching the spread of a cod virus ... :)

the quantitative aspects can be ignored if a nice qualitative story can be spun ...

another genius has "heat" traveling slower than x-rays ... Lorentz be damned because infra-red moves slowly ...

then thee is a mysterious process by which "ablation" causes "compression" ...

DF is on track to catch up with TSP ... how long before Djinn Weapons and Short-circuit Vacuua make their debut on DF?

On Nukkad already Raju is creating earthquakes by disturbing the ionosphere ...

if folks would only pick up a calculator, say a prayer to Lord Energy Conservation and then examine their claims ... sigh!

 
At 9:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Woooooo, I'm not alone!
I saw the Heat-Djinn Dynamics part but something else caught my attention: this whole X-Ray ablation+plasma+compression explanation seemed quite fantastic. (PS: Note the '+' sign). I am not a GD/HD major and certainly not a nukular bum-maker but something sure smells fishy in the state of Denmark.
A veritable "singularity" (yeah it's heavy, I know!) like the Gigaboom features (and in bum-making, scientists factors) all the three effects simultaneously?! The prophets always claimed *either* one the above directly leads to the gigaboom.
I wonder where did that member get this idea from? I'm curious.


-Anand K

 
At 12:53 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

this Anant guy is either a super naive desi dude, or he is a super clever NPA ...

he's been arounf since 1999 and made only 17 posts, half of them since yesterday ...

he's inserting NPA propaganda very nicely while saying all kinds of naive things like "Cholaa-Bhatoora" and what not ...

I suppose there is no hope for answers from DF ... it is probably best to write them off as pointless to the nuclear debate and focus elsewhere ...

Cheers.

 
At 12:25 AM, Anonymous Faizi said...

Hi,
Could anyone enlighten me about the basic physics of the instabilities being referred to? I am a novice in these matters, and would be grateful for some simpleminded explanations (reading the papers is hard for someone with my lack of training). I have been suspicious for a long time about the "technical" comments on the DF, and talk of cold fusion research simply confirms these suspicions.

Thanks.
Faizi.

 
At 5:50 AM, Anonymous Ananya said...

MAverick:

If you claim that GoI babooze are devoid of corruption and like, either you have been away from India far too long or your only interaction is with the honourable few that exist. Either way, its a scary thougt, given your impassioned defence of all things done by GoI babooze.

Frankly, I dont know whether S1 fizzled or worked. I am with you on that score: we simply dont have enough data on that to make a judgement one way or the other. However what is true is the following:

1. DAE has NOT tested a weapon, fission or otherwise, at full yield.
2. From good engineering practice, at least one test of a weapon to verify working is a necessity
3. We have based our deterrant on assurances from physicists that it will work, which contradicts #2

Do you agree with the above?

The question of course is should we test or can we test? Currently answer to both would be on, and remains so for the near future.

If one ignores the S1 fizzle part of the argument, dont you think Arun_s is saying the same thing? I wonder why you seem to be ignoring this and concentrating on tarring him as NPA, sold out for money and other pot shots like the Schandra affair? As I said before, you are using the same morals as Arun_S, which is making accusations by innuendo and lacking enough evidence. I was with you initially, but with such irresponsible epithets flying around from you, you have lost any moral high ground that you had.

 
At 5:51 AM, Anonymous Ananya said...

Sorry, it should have been

Currently answer to both would be no, and remains so for the near future.

 
At 6:48 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Ananya,

Based on my experience it can be said that all "Babooze" are not corrupt.

Based on GoI's public statements alone - it is possible to make a case for more tests. If you want tests of higher yeild, then you should say what you want to do with that yeild.

Based on my knowledge of recent events, the Hon. Webmaster can't prove any of his claims and he does not know how to make a nuclear weapon or much less about how the Indian one was made.

Based on the sheer amount of material from NPA sites that the Hon. Webmaster quotes, it can be said that the NPA have greatly influenced his thinking. I mean really boss, he cites the NPA websites as introductory/basic/core material. By his own admission this stuff is what his entire thinking is based on.

The general public in India (or anywhere else) is not in a position to make head or tail of nuclear weapons design related issues. The general public relies on the scientific community for that.

The Hon. Webmaster focussed on the design issues. He forced the debate into a position where the DAE cannot respond due to proliferation sensitivity concerns.

Through personal attacks the Hon. Webmaster attempted to discredit the scientific community and he questioned the credibility of the 1998 yeilds. In doing so he attacked the *ONLY* way in which this could be made to go away.

Drawing on apparent authority he had built up by making a webpage on the Agni - the Hon. Webmaster attempted to turn the forum membership against the GoI and the DAE. He bit the very hand that fed him.

Frankly, this is a huge mess and it will take a long time to recover from this. By saddling the nation with this huge mess - the Hon. Webmaster has created a huge hole that is sucking all our time and effort.

What makes this even worse is that we still don't know why this happened.

The Hon. Webmaster continues to drop hints without any supporting evidence that he speaks for people inside the GoI. He continously claims that these people explained things to him and that he with all his technical expertise and engineering background understood exactly what they were saying.

It is increasingly difficult to take such claims seriously. In the best case - someone might admit to having an off-the-record conversation with him, but no one is going to come out and take responsibilitiy for the Hon. Webmaster's actions. What little credibility the Hon. Webmaster will lose when this happens.

Neither the Indian military, nor the BJP nor the Left Front are going to risk polarising their relations with the DAE by supporting exhuberant actions.

The NPA are going to oppose/ disrupt the deal but only as long as their paymasters - the American energy companies - are able to build a stable investment structure in India's nuclear energy sector. Ultimately even the NPA will stop making a racket about this.

Eventually Hon. Webmaster will be held personally responsible for this mess.

 
At 7:41 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

The new mantra is this:

"Since doubts have been raised, we have to test"

Wah! ... who raised the doubts in the first place?? ... if there are doubts, address the doubts!

if you don't address the doubts, and there is another test, I will be happy to raise doubts, so you will have to test again ...

and again ...

this "doubt-raising" can go on forever ...

which is why it is important to TEST THE DOUBT-RAISERS AGENDA AND COMPETENCE OF THE CLAIM ...

That is the real TEST that we need ...

 
At 8:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Eventually Hon. Webmaster will be held personally responsible for this mess."

Mav as much as you think.. that you speak for the "DAE and GOI". The more you make me roll over and laugh.But who am I to say no?.. have a blast. Make sure you reach your goal of hitting 200 comments yet (including spamming your own blog) ?.

---

If the DAE is interested in responding to "DF" ("disreputable forum") as you and the assorted chamchas call [who have their own axes to grind having been booted out] and still "waste so much of your time" to have a running commentary LOL, one mail to Admins or a column about it in any newspaper would suffice, to shut everybody up.

 
At 8:19 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

npa,npa,npa, to infinity. sainis, you are a broken record. who decides who and what is npa. can you provide proper definition. if you have sense then think of your own ass.
spamming-harasing-abusing-threatening persons is serious crime here in usa. suppose some persons complain to fbi about you and your recent misbehavior. you are in new haven not in chembur. remember this well. webmaster has his own job. nobody fed him and he never bit any persons hand. i also believe 1998 test results are true. but i also believe persons right to question and debate. in this world everybody is telling both truth and lies. do not fool yourself and think that you can bully and threaten persons to believe you and what you say. this is advice from a friend.

 
At 8:22 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

yeah saini has become mad..he has let his personal hatered for the BJP, hindu right and arun sharma cloud his behaviour..i mean come on, post after post on the bad NRI super hindus and BJP and now Arun Sharma..and nobody gives a damm about Saini on BRF now, so all this naataka

be more adult guys, make ur behaviour more moderate, ur just making fool out of urself

whether ur congress chamcha or GOI chamcha or BJP chamcha all you fools are indian on same team so act like that

 
At 8:32 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Alok,

I see two issues

1) Doubts about the device yeilds.

2) Questions about tht viability of the devices as weapons.

Tests can offer answers to (2) but it will never prevent (1).

There is no way to simulate the viability on a computer - you have to test.

There is presently an equivalence between the situation in India and the situation in the US here.

India has never tested a fully weaponised system - i.e. mated a delivery system with an actual warhead and then released it on a target. Because the Indian arsenal will be small, without such a test - every soldier could have serious concerns about the viability of the deterrent.

In the US, there is a desire to improve the cost-effectiveness of the aging nuclear arsenal. To this end, a new "reliable, replacement warhead" has been designed. However without a similar full system test, it will be difficult for the US military to accept this as a reliable weapon - especially because of the sheer numbers of the weapons the US is planning to deploy.

If either India or the US conduct a full system test - it will be amount to nuking the entire non-proliferation framework.

 
At 8:32 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

as expected ... the TECHNICAL GENIUSES of DF have now come on to attack personalities ...

LOL ...

not one word on what is TECHNICALLY WRONG with the TerraBoom ... methinks these DF folks couldn't debug a television set, let alone a bum ...

kyaa kamaal ki bewaqoofi hai ...

Chalo, close the chapter ... all this TECHNICAL GYAAN is too much to handle ... LOL.

 
At 8:38 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sunil/ Arun, but please be more circumspect.

A lot of us are in India and in the US, none of us want trouble. Please tone down your personal differences so that it doesnt escalate beyond a few nasty words, both for your own benefit and for those who know you all.

We all have lives, and things to do apart from squabbling over petty things on the internet.

Any Govt etc is heavy handed in going about settling things - take the Pune case for example.

So irrespective of which side of the fence you ALL are on, stop this tamasha before it escalates further to the DDM and GOI/GOTUS and harmless debates end up harming lives.

 
At 8:48 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Anonymous,

I do not speak for the DAE or GoI.

I am merely observing the reality of politics.

I am already in touch with several admin. No one can figure out a way of communicating with the Hon. Webmaster.

He is simply refusing to listen to what people around him are saying.

It is very hard to see how this will end well.

Dear Anonymous,

If the Hon. Webmaster has so much respect inside India - that someone from within the Indian nuclear bomb team will walk up to him and tell him all the details of how the devices failed in 1998, then why would he be worried about upsetting an anonymous nobody like me?

It is difficult to imagine why he would find anything I say threatening.

However, I mean if he wanted to write "persecuted in India" on his application for asylum in the US (like so many Khalistanis in the past), then I can't possibly stop him.

Though I don't actually know what the FBI would make of a person who claims to have figured out how a thermonuclear bomb works in a year of "studying" and claims to have secret contacts with bombmakers in a foreign country but my guess is that they might easily think that such a person is a lunatic or a even potential terrorist.

The only reason I am posting anything about this is because the Hon. Webmaster is completely ignoring all efforts to communicate with him.

 
At 8:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Sunil.

All that is fine.

Your differences with Arun are now known and irrespective of which side of fence one is, whats done is done.

Point 1: We all respect GOI, and our scientists and irrespective of who is in power, Congress or BJP we are Indians.

Point 2: The internet is used as a sounding and venting board and people dont take it seriously and hence say all SORTS of $hit. I have done it, you have done it, we all have done it. We lose our temper and say things we shouldnt.

Point 3: Even so, things escalate and go beyond the interent. This is stupid and unecessary.

For your own sakes -BOTH of you, stop this public tamasha before someone picks it up and USES it to ATTACK both of you, and affect your REAL lives.

I dont know what both of you do in your real lives and I am sure you dont want ALL of us to know also.

So take this offline, and for some time, till things cool down, disable comments on this blogspot of yours.

Serious advice cum request.

Remember this, you dont know who is coming here and speaking junk.

And tomorrow some Paki/Chini will come and use this site as a reference to attack India with.

Delete ALL references to the tests from your sites, and as you are in touch with BRF admin, ask them to do so likewise.

Why stir up trouble which nobody can manage?

Please see the Pune case about Orkut and recent case viz SoniaG to understand my concern.

US is no better.

Spare us all your anger at each other and be more reasonable guys.

 
At 9:02 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

I am not concerned about what BRF thinks of me.

I simply can't stand that a place I once frequented is being used to attack the Scicom and the DAE.

Once you impeach the credibility of the DAE and Scicom. There is nothing to stop people of India from saying India is "nuke nude".

Whatever the Hon. Webmaster is doing - it is all this other stuff on the side that is worrying me.

You don't have to believe a word I say - you can verify everything yourself.

Call up the SFC boss and ask him if he has ever heard of Hon. Webmaster and if he approves of Arun's personal attacks on the Scicom.

Call up L. K. Advani and ask him the same questions.

And call up Chairman Karat and ask him the same thing.

I think the answer in all cases will be a resounding NO.

If you call up the rest of the BR team, a majority of them will also say that they do not approve of this.

This is what I mean when I say there is no political traction for this in India.

I also think this has to stop now - that was the point of Shiv's thread.

But it will not stop if Hon. Webmaster keeps stepping in and stirring the point in his many avatars.

The Hon. Webmaster has to shut up now. His efforts are doing more harm than good.

 
At 9:04 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Reality of Politics.. Khalistanis..NPA..Asylum's now terrorists...

From now on.. you will get paid.. in the SAME COIN.. Time for niceties is over ?.

You make the call ... and get your tutu ready, bud!

 
At 9:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sigh, you are too silly for your own good. What stops someone in BRF or some idiot Paki or Chini from googling up your details and siccing people against you? Likewise, what if somebody does something silly to ArunS?
Whose father what goes viz BRF dude? Are you the most patriotic indian on the internet that you have to personally take umbrage at Arun being unreasonable? So u have to be worse and vice versa? Act like adults both of you, and spare all those who know you the possible trouble of facing issues!
Your selfishness can hurt others AND yourselves and you still wont stopm, Best of luck and goodbye, said all I could now its upto you both to manage

 
At 9:09 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"I am not concerned about what BRF thinks of me."

No, buddy it's "DF", forgot it already (the hand that feeds, no? ). Well I think you are a "lil bitch" big a big ego.. Since you don't care about it anyway ;)

Don't know about the webmaster.. but you need to STFU.. and the this DAE & GOI talk..

 
At 9:20 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The one thing NPA types have been looking for was a nice, tall Desi soapbox that's not *so* ignored by the passers-by. Now it seems they have got it... bhat Rediff-Shediff when you have fr1ggin' BRF? The very forum explicitly mentioned in many places by folks like B.Raman and even the mainstream media, used as a reference point in SO MANY resources, a BB frequented by rather known persona and once had something like the BRM/SRR. Funny that the very place which gave the charlatans their "Non-Proliferation Ayatollah" nickname is becoming a Typhoid Mary for their cleverly engineered thought-viruses.
Some Karma, eh?

-Anand K

PS: I hope this anon is serious in trying to wind this down by asking Mav to delete all this ... or maybe someone's now scared of all the shit they threw (and encouraged to throw) against the GoI and it's bodies. Parkalam.

 
At 9:27 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I hope this anon is serious in trying to wind this down by asking Mav to delete all this ... or maybe someone's now scared of all the shit they threw (and encouraged to throw) against the GoI and it's bodies. Parkalam.
--

No.. I don't want Mav to delete it.. Since its a "nice platform with cross readership" and no censorship, no?. Let everybody see it.

Nobody is scared of cheerleaders and pom poms, now come on!.

 
At 9:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

@AnandK,

"PS: I hope this anon is serious in trying to wind this down by asking Mav to delete all this"

I am indeed serious, and I am amazed that you guys cant see where this is going with your useless ego fights.

"or maybe someone's now scared of all the shit they threw (and encouraged to throw) against the GoI and it's bodies. Parkalam."

..it is this kind of partisan STUPIDITY displayed by ALL of you that has brought this divide to the present state.

Next, I await a post by someone about "knickerwaalahs" and somebody to curse in return, and for you and other folks to egg the fight on.

Enjoy your own trainwreck.

 
At 9:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi anon previous to my post above, if its Arun S please cease & desist. Enough damage done by you both already!

Conduct your fight personally and dont make it public.

 
At 9:44 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi anon previous to my post above, if its Arun S please cease & desist. Enough damage done by you both already!

-----

No, if you are thinking .. that its Webby.. He has nothing to with my post. I don't even know him, except for reading his posts on "DF". That should answer you question.

However I was perturbed by the veiled[direct] threats, coupled with NPA,Khalistanis, Asylums, Terrorist.


cheers.

 
At 9:52 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

My apologies, then!

SS, and AnandK, I think the above proves my point. Keep this up, and everyone and his uncle will fight over this issue and cause trouble.

Delete all the references to this useless debate, plus your own posts and comments, and request folks on BRF to do likewise.

If you are indeed in touch with admins, then they can surely do a scan on ArunS and others posts and remove everything controversial.

In a couple of months, none of this will show up, bar gupshup.

Guys be adults, act your age.

Be reasonable.

We, your DF acquaintances and freinds dont need to see which of you is bigger or badder or even RIGHT or WRONG, just use your common sense and stop all this before you hurt anyone and yourselves.

 
At 9:55 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

my dear friend sainis fbi or any other usa law authorities are not interested in these things. fbi does not care how webmaster learnt to make hydrogen bomb in one year or three days or who were his teachers or which library he went to. fbi is interested in spamming-harasing-abusing-threatening which has your name all over. i tried to warn you as a friend. i may be too late.

 
At 12:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maverick : "The NPA have been trying to colour this civilian nuclear deal as something that will improve India's ability to make nuclear weapons."

Err !!! ... More on this "Civilian Nuke deal" you speak of, but go around saying "I'm not for it or against it".


The Hindu

hindu.com/2006/08/15/stories/2006081502861100.htm

However, the lawmakers of the U.S. Congress have modified, both in letter and spirit, the implementation of such an agreement. At this juncture, among other aspects, it is essential that we insist on the following four central themes:

1. India should continue to be able to hold on to her nuclear option as a strategic requirement in the real world that we live in, and in the ever-changing complexity of the international political system. This means that we cannot accede to any restraint in perpetuity on our freedom of action. We have not done this for the last forty years after the Non-Proliferation Treaty came into being, and there is no reason why we should succumb to this now. Universal nuclear disarmament must be our ultimate aim, and until we see the light at the end of the tunnel on this important issue, we cannot accept any agreement in perpetuity.

2. After 1974, when the major powers discontinued cooperation with us, we have built up our capability in many sensitive technological areas, which need not and should not now be subjected to external control. Safeguards are understandable where external assistance for nuclear materials or technologies are involved. We have agreed to this before, and we can continue to agree to this in the future too, but strictly restricted to those facilities and materials imported from external sources.

3. We find that the Indo-U.S. deal, in the form approved by the U.S. House of Representatives, infringes on our independence for carrying out indigenous research and development (R&D) in nuclear science and technology. Our R&D should not be hampered by external supervision or control, or by the need to satisfy any international body. Research and technology development are the sovereign rights of any nation. This is especially true when they concern strategic national defence and energy self-sufficiency.

4. While the sequence of actions to implement the cooperation could be left for discussion between the two governments, the basic principles on which such actions will rest is the right of Parliament and the people to decide. The Prime Minister has already taken up with President Bush the issue of the new clauses recommended by the U.S. House of Representatives. If the U.S. Congress, in its wisdom, passes the bill in its present form, the `product' will become unacceptable to India, and, diplomatically, it will be very difficult to change it later. Hence it is important for our Parliament to work out, and insist on, the ground rules for the nuclear deal, at this stage itself.

We therefore request you, the Parliamentarians, to discuss this deal and arrive at a unanimous decision, recognising the fundamental facts of India's indigenous nuclear science and technology achievements to date, the efforts made to overcome the unfair restrictions placed on us and the imaginative policies and planning enunciated and followed in the years after Independence. The nation, at this critical juncture, depends on its representatives in Parliament to ensure that decisions taken today do not inhibit our future ability to develop and pursue nuclear technologies for the benefit of the nation.

The statement issued on Monday has been signed by:

Dr. H.N. Sethna, former Chairman, Atomic Energy Commission; Dr. M.R. Srinivasan, former Chairman, Atomic Energy Commission; Dr. P.K. Iyengar, former Chairman, Atomic Energy Commission; Dr. A. Gopalakrishnan, former Chairman, Atomic Energy Regulatory Board; Dr. S.L. Kati, former Managing Director, Nuclear Power Corporation; Dr. A.N. Prasad, former Director, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre; Dr. Y.S.R. Prasad, former Chairman & Managing Director, Nuclear Power Corporation; and Dr. Placid Rodriguez, former Director, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research.

 
At 2:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maverick in one of the above posts says..."Eventually Hon. Webmaster will be held personally responsible for this mess."

IMO this can be clearly construed as "threating," or if something were to happen to Arun, then Maverick is clearly going to Guantanamo kind of a place.

For a lay reader and long time BRF follower, I can clearly see that Maverick has axe to grind against the forum. People here blame the forum for becoming right wing echo chamber but if these worthies chickened out of there, who is to blame. Admins, IMO are doing their best job balancing vibrancy, maintaining quality, and providing a platform for diverse opinion. It is you guys who called it quits.

 
At 2:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

One more thing...it must also be noted that Maverick also had issues with several other regular and informed posters on history matters like Kaushal, Hauma Hamiddha etc and a played role in getting them off the forum. They eventually started off IndiaForum. In many ways, he tried to break the forum then and now this.

It is not for nothing I call him ponga pundit. The term means pompous and self centered guy and nothing to do with casteist slur. If it matter to him, I am myself a pundit and not every pundit is ponga pundit.

 
At 2:53 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

Arun has posted a couple of papers on DF on EOS studies using lasers ...

the apparatus in question is 2 joules over 200 picoseconds ... for comparison, NIF is 2 MILLION joules over a nanosecond ...

where is the comparison? ... what is the point of posting that paper? ...

further, if you read the paper, you see the level instrument development ... to quote from the paper: "The laser chain consists of a modified single shot commercial laser oscillator (Model PY61C-10) from M/s Continuum, USA ..."

so, even this little toy was an imported object ...

what LIF apparatus at CAT are we talking about?

finally, the results were supposedly already published 23 years earlier (at least) in the databook: Marsh, S. P., LASL Shock Hugoniot Data, University of California Press, Berkeley, 1980 ...

so what is the deal here?

 
At 3:08 PM, Anonymous Parikshit said...

Hi Maverick... do you think that Arun's posts on BRF have affected India's security? At least, that is what I understood from your comments, like this one:

Frankly, this is a huge mess and it will take a long time to recover from this. By saddling the nation with this huge mess - the Hon. Webmaster has created a huge hole that is sucking all our time and effort.

Are BRF and Arun_S *that* important?

Thanks.

 
At 3:23 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

I have threatening language used by various anonymous posters here, you don't see me breaking into a whiney sweat.

Every thread on this topic on my blog has been incessantly plagued by a vast amount of personal abuse aimed at me and now this latest gem..

"You make the call ... and get your tutu ready, bud!"

Now is that a threat?

BTW tell me this, if I pick up the phone and call Gen.(r) Malik and ask him if he supports Hon. Webmaster's tirade against the DAE leadership, do you think Gen. Malik is going to say "yes I do"?

Which call do you want me to make?

Anonymous,

That statement:

"Eventually Hon. Webmaster will be held personally responsible for this mess."

is a fact.

If Hon. Webmaster believes that anyone either on the web team, or in the Indian Armed Forces, or in the BJP or in the Left Front in India is going to support this - I think he is mistaken.

No one is going to risk their backsides by associating with someone who talks like this.

Look at this blog - how many of the people that rush to Hon webmaster's defence here dare to post as anything but anonymous? one? two?

This is the bizarre and highly vulnerable situation he is in.

Anonymous,

Sure the Hon. Webmaster or one of his friends can call the FBI, CIA, Secret Service and tell them that my posts on my blog here are harassing the Hon. Webmaster and causing him to lose sleep.

Assume for a moment that these organisations ignore the fact that the Hon. Webmaster claims to have independently access great knowledge about making a thermonuclear bomb.

But these organisations - the CIA, the FBI etc.. post 9/11 are not obliged to protect anyones' (even those of citizens) rights if they percieve that it harms the national security interests of the US.

As this present situation involves a internet debate between two Indians - if the US steps in on the side of one - especially if that one happens to be someone who is attacking the DAE in India, will it not look like the US supports attacks on the DAE?

Given how delicate this deal situation is - is this an impression that the USG will want going around?

My guess is that no US institution will want to touch this matter with a sterilised barge pole.

I am sure the Hon. Webmaster or his friends could rush to a lawyer in the US and get them to issue me threatening letters or something of the sort but ultimately if the matter goes to a court of law - nothing will come of it.

That leaves India.

Yes - they could go to a court in India and apply for relief, but then as I have done here, I will make my case in court that in my opinion, the Hon. Webmaster's attack on the DAE undermines India's national security and that I am simply exercising my right to free speech too.

I am sure the litigation would take a long time, but I fail to see why the Court in India would protect Hon. Webmaster's rights to free speech over mine.

What can I say boss? several generations of my family were lawyers.

I have been very clear on what I think is wrong with what he is doing - by deliberately provoking discussions on the Indian design he is forcing the debate into positions where the DAE cannot reply due to proliferation sensitivity issues. This kind of talk in my opinion will cause people to question the viability of India's deterrent. (As Shiv has suggested on the first post in that thread).

 
At 3:25 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Anonymous,

It does not matter if BRF is that important.

If one person does it and gets away with it - others will do it too.

Somewhere an (imaginary) line has to be drawn.

 
At 3:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You really must have been smoking something nasty. If what goes on forum or what some *one* person says breakes nuclear deterrance between countries, it implies that the deterrance is either non-existant or flimsy. If it really were like that, it is better that such deterrance is called flimsy by our SOB's rather than enemy's.

That atleast will provide fine and dandy excuse for testing again. On this point, you may not realize, both you are Arun are converging just that you want a kosher way of saying it and Arun is juse being blunt. For a guy at 30,000 ft, I want both opinions to further my case. There is moderation required at *both* ends.

 
At 3:46 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Anonymous,

My interpretation of the comments by Sethna et al. (2006) is that *in their opinion* (not that of GoI), elements of the NP community are attempting to get the US Congress to use the Indo-US nuclear deal to control India's options on the nuclear weapons front.

Per Sethna et al. such a situation is detrimental to India's security.

Sethna et al do not advocate or suggest that at the India wants to use this civilian nuclear technology for military purposes.

These two things are being mixed up on the US side - not on the Indian side.

The Hon. Webmaster is going two steps ahead of where Sethna et al stopped.

Hon. Webmaster is suggesting that the S1 test in 1998 failed because the "2nd-stage" - a thermonuclear burn failed to "ignite" (i.e. "fizzled"). Furthermore he states that GoI has curtailed capacity at CAT-Indore to carry out laser induced fusion experiments that could help design a nuclear weapon of much higher yeild - specifically experiments that could correct the "mistakes" that led to the "fizzle". The Hon. Webmaster then goes on to allege that RC, AK and the DAE top brass are responsible for destroying India's deterrence.

My position is that Hon. Webmaster has no knowledge of the workings of the Indian bomb or any other bomb for that matter. He has read a bunch of stuff the NPA put out and he thinks he understands that. I believe that in order to go from the incorrect and misleading phenomenological rubbish that the NPA have put on their websites to an actual working nuclear design, you need to be able to extremely advanced physics experiments and simulations. The Hon. Webmaster has none of those resources.

The Hon. Webmaster's response to this has been that he is in touch with someone in India who worked on the Indian bomb and knows all this a lot better than he does.

My contention is that this claim cannot be proven and hence everything the Hon. Webmaster says has to be discarded as suspect from the very beginning.

My request to him - both on and off this blog has been to please stop doing this kind of damage to India.

I have no problems if people want to oppose/support the deal that is their choice.

I have no problems if people want to push for/discourage more testing in India. If we can allow people at places like IIMS who get grants from the DAE or people at NII who get paychecks from GoI to protest against nuclear testing - I don't see why BRF can't be allowed to advocate for more testing.

But this business of provoking discussions on the design details of the Indian bomb - of trying to dress up experiments in India's R&D institutions as being bomb related work - this is detrimental to India's national security and in my opinion does not belong on a forum like BRF.

 
At 3:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I meant..there is moderation required at *both* ends in not losing energy fighting each other but complimenting each other.

 
At 3:53 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Anonymous,

> No, buddy it's "DF", forgot it already (the hand that feeds, no? ). Well I think you are a "lil bitch" big a big ego.. Since you don't care about it anyway ;)

I am repeating myself for the millionth time here but it was the "disreputable forum" when people *like me* were on it.

Do you understand *Me* *kg*, the old BRM crew etc... we were the "disreputables" - the D in DF.

When we left the "DF" became just the forum. There were no disreputables left to carry that badge.

>Don't know about the webmaster.. but you need to STFU.. and the this DAE & GOI talk..

So I take it you want the DAE and GoI to answer to Hon. Webmaster?

So you admit this entire exercise on the forum by Hon. Webmaster is a provocation to suss out the Indian design?

You confess this is a houbara hunt for the Indian nuke?

I don't mind if you want to do that - but really boss, I don't see BRF could possibly allow such an effort to continue on its webpages.

 
At 4:01 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Another Mavericks Gems :

"The OFBJP types are very keen to block this deal because of legacy issues and most of them are a little too susceptible to the "sky is falling" type stuff. The NPA appear to have convinced them to pursue the idea that India somehow needs a bigger bomb. They are aiding the NPA fishing trips."

-------

Signed BY :

Dr. H.N. Sethna, former Chairman, Atomic Energy Commission; Dr. M.R. Srinivasan, former Chairman, Atomic Energy Commission; Dr. P.K. Iyengar, former Chairman, Atomic Energy Commission; Dr. A. Gopalakrishnan, former Chairman, Atomic Energy Regulatory Board; Dr. S.L. Kati, former Managing Director, Nuclear Power Corporation; Dr. A.N. Prasad, former Director, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre; Dr. Y.S.R. Prasad, former Chairman & Managing Director, Nuclear Power Corporation; and Dr. Placid Rodriguez, former Director, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research.
--

Maverick is Slandering all the above, now we all know who is aiding whose fishing trips and is jeopardizing India's and DAE's ability. Q.E.D


P.S. Nobody is whining Mav.. go full speed. I'm sorry if you took that mostly harmless "tutu" comment as a threat.. LOL.
--
It does not matter if BRF is that important.

"DF" man "DF".. call it by its name ?, after all we are all coming here for some drama, and thats what we demand.


If one person does it and gets away with it - others will do it too.

Reminds me of a Bushism:

"I hear there's rumors on the Internets that we're going to have a draft."

 
At 4:08 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Anonymous,

"For a lay reader and long time BRF follower, I can clearly see that Maverick has axe to grind against the forum. People here blame the forum for becoming right wing echo chamber but if these worthies chickened out of there, who is to blame. Admins, IMO are doing their best job balancing vibrancy, maintaining quality, and providing a platform for diverse opinion. It is you guys who called it quits"

Most of the disreputables were asked to leave by the Admins. We fouled up the Rang-de-Basanti mood that the Admins wanted to create on the forum.

So today the BRF Admins that pushed to kick people like me out have gotten their wish - the site has become a home for right wing lunatics who think they know how nuclear bombs are made.

Anonymous,

>Maverick also had issues with several other regular and informed posters on history matters like Kaushal, Hauma Hamiddha etc and a played role in getting them off the forum.

You know - most of the "india forum" crew still posts on the BRF.

>Maverick broke the forum then.

No that is false - that was Rakesh Koshy's doing.

For the record I never banned Kaushal or Hauma Hammidha. I fought with both of them because I disagreed with them. After I left BR *after* a disagreement with Koshy and Calvin - Kaushal et al. offered to take me into their India Research Foundation.

I was very tired after the fight with Koshy and Calvin, and I really didn't want to get mixed up with anything so I politely refused them.

In fact if you ask the other admins - a few of them will recall that I had argued that Hauma be kept on the forum despite him having flagrantly violated forum rules by repeatedly posting sectarian issues.

Guys - it really helps to know the history here.

 
At 4:16 PM, Blogger maverick said...

I am happy to "STFU" if Hon. Webmaster stops trying to provoke a destructive discussion on the design.

All the information he has posted so far only proves the fact that he is repeating NPA origin stuff and that he has no direct knowledge of issues involved in nuclear bomb design much less LIF physics.

There are too many people who actually know physics on the forum to pull such stunts and they will call him out. Such an exercise will end badly for the Hon. Webmaster.

If he just drops this and allows Shiv's main point on the thread - that the credibility of the scientists and the credibility of deterrent are identical to be made - without spouting meaningless garbage about design etc... he should be able to save face for now.

I don't know what the future holds.

I am riled up because I have seen my own utterances used out of context to bolster the Hon. Webmaster's charge against the DAE.

I want no part in this attack on the DAE. I do not appreciate my words being twisted in this fashion.

I have told both Ramanna and the Hon. Webmaster several times and I am stunned that despite all that this was done.

That is why I am asking him to stop.

 
At 4:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Clever!.. Now you want to drag KG into this along with you into this neo self denigration drama, I wont say anything about him or the others (who haven't been half as vitriolic or patronizing as you+ your cheerleading lackeys).

Anyway.. We are about to hit the 200 mark, time to go "lift" new maal from DF, also find a catchy headline of your next whinefest and troll away.

 
At 4:21 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Anonymous,

Please read the comment I made earlier about the article by Sethna et al (2006).

My interpretation of this statement is different from the politically minded readings elsewhere.

My comments regarding "OFBJP types" and " NPA " do not apply to the article of Sethna et al.

Those words are reserved for the hyperactive crowd on the forum.

 
At 4:28 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Anonymous,

IIRC actually kg's work on cohen caused the "disreputable" label to stick, until then it was only loosely bandied about.

I would be remiss to deny him credit.

There is nothing "neo" or "self-denigrating" about this. That label was a badge of honour - worn with pride because no one in regular academia could stand to associate with the forum.

If BRF wants the badge back - then people like you will have to earn it.

I doubt you will earn it by attacking or trash talking the DAE or the PMO.

Look boss, I am old and tired, I was about to retire quietly when the Hon. Webmaster went on his shooting spree on the forum.

I'd be happy to pass the badge to the next generation of forumites but you will have to earn it from me.

 
At 4:30 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

why are the anonymous dudes so scared to reveal their BRF handles?

they are happy to name other handles (even threaten to reveal real life identities), but somehow consider their own identities sacred ...

bunch of Coward Cheneys, methinks ...

 
At 4:32 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

also, if someone agrees that giving gaali to DAE is not doe, the darpok pundits call it "cheerleading" ...

LOL ... coward morons one and all ...

 
At 4:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am happy to "STFU" if Hon. Webmaster stops trying to provoke a destructive discussion on the design.

Who the hell are you to decide on what a destructive discussion is ?, a self appointed Admin. BTW you deliberately accusing the Mods and Admins of not doing their jobs as in the case of SChandra, and calling posters you are doing a job of finding material, as toeing the NPA line and Websites. At the same time issuing edicts like:

"writing up a complete manuscript and submitting it to Current Science."

LOL

 
At 4:40 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Anonymous,

"I meant..there is moderation required at *both* ends in not losing energy fighting each other but complimenting each other."

At this point I don't see anything that I can say about Hon. Webmaster's strategy with regards this issue that is positive.

I am kicking myself for not having sorted this out a year back. I hoped this rubbish would go away, I was wrong.

And now the atmosphere he has created is leading to people using my statements to support their anti-DAE agendas.

I want him to stop.

This entire thing - whatever he/you think it is - it is going too far.

 
At 4:51 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Anonymous,

> Who the hell are you to decide on what a destructive discussion is ?, a self appointed Admin.

I am someone who is damaged by this discussion environment Hon. Webmaster is provoking. My statements about CNCs and their role in mass production of reactor components are being twisted by people to suit the Hon. Webmaster's agenda for attacking the DAE.

> BTW you deliberately accusing the Mods and Admins of not doing their jobs as in the case of SChandra, and calling posters you are doing a job of finding material, as toeing the NPA line and Websites.

If you read my posts on these issues, I am simply someone who feels hurt to see things like what S Chandra proposes go unchallenged on the forum. I am someone lamenting the loss of the forum I once knew and loved.

That is my opinion - or is only your beloved Hon. Webmaster allowed to have opinions?

> At the same time issuing edicts like: "writing up a complete manuscript and submitting it to Current Science."

Err... as I said it that post, I reviewed the BRM paper they wrote. If they have changed their views now they should write another paper saying why and get that reviewed before publication.

Only then can I attach the same level of importance to allegations of their position shift.

Listen boss, read my comments in completeness - that way I don't have to repeat them.

 
At 4:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

LOL ... coward morons one and all ...

Bhy all this, can you please treat us with some of you Shayari, somehow always miss it and we are also close to the 200 post. :(

 
At 4:57 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Anonymous,

"You really must have been smoking something nasty. If what goes on forum or what some *one* person says breakes nuclear deterrance between countries, it implies that the deterrance is either non-existant or flimsy. If it really were like that, it is better that such deterrance is called flimsy by our SOB's rather than enemy's.

That atleast will provide fine and dandy excuse for testing again. On this point, you may not realize, both you are Arun are converging just that you want a kosher way of saying it and Arun is juse being blunt. For a guy at 30,000 ft, I want both opinions to further my case. There is moderation required at *both* ends."

I am *not* providing any reasons to test/not test. Nothing I say should be taken as me supporting/not supporting testing.

My comments are about Hon. Webmaster parading his ignorance as "deep knowledge" and about Hon. Webmaster repeatedly trying to discredit the scientists in India.

In my opinion this is not in India's interest.

Whatever Hon. Webmaster's intention, I don't think this is the right thing to do.

You want to support testing/oppose it go ahead. You like/dislike the deal feel free to speak your mind boss, I don't have anything to say about that.

All this "traitor" MMS, "incompetent" RC, AK nonsense that hurts my feelings and now junta is twisting my statements their attack DAE agenda.

That is why I am asking that this stop.

 
At 7:37 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

Again more unrelated bs.

How is the EOS work on Gold and Copper-Aluminium targets relevant to designing the bomb?

In its annual report CAT mentions that it works on EOS studies.

Where does one get off concluding that this has anything to do with the bomb?

As Alok points out - the energy densities don't come close, so where is the comparison?

 
At 8:51 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

Dear Anonymous,

Sorry to lump all of you in one pile ... but then you did not take up my suggestion to give yourselves numbers ... :)

in any case, since you asked for post #200 to be Shayari, I seek advice from Jigar ...

this whole thing is one unholy mess in which (I believe) I have lost friends for no good reason ... if you are reading this and consider me to be your friend, please be assured that I feel the same way ...

here is how Jigar would analyse this train-wreck:

ishq ko be-naqaab honaa tha
aap apanaa jawaab honaa tha

dil ki jis par hain naqsh-e-rangaa-rang
us ko saadaa kitaab honaa tha


adaab arz hain, mian log ...

 

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