Thursday, June 05, 2014

A fork in the road

There is a fork in the road.

1) Either a nuclear submarine will have to carry missiles mated to warheads and in doing so render the distinction between first use and guaranteed second strike invisible. This has obvious negative implications for deterrence stability.

2) Or a nuclear submarine will have to sit in an underground submarine pen a la Balaklava or Sanya and the warheads will only be mated to the delivery systems prior to submarine departure. In order to be effective in such a configuration,  it will need longer range missiles and given the inherent low CEP that comes with that kind of launch platform, one will need a very high yield warhead.

Dharmakshetre Kurukshetre Samavetayuyutsavaha |
Maamakaah paandavaashchaiva kimakurvata samjaya||