Wednesday, August 16, 2017

"Total Moral Collapse"

I think Paul Staniland has hit it on the head  - after Trump's last press conference the US has suffered a "Total Moral Collapse" of its federal government.

This is a serious problem as it has strong implications for law and order. In the vacuum created by this moral collapse, criminal organizations will move resolutely to undermine law and order.

As many of you are aware, whatever law and order means (how ever twisted that may be), it is held in place by the police departments of the land. A little known fact about police departments is that each houses a slush fund. In the US this fund is filled using the "Civil Forfeiture" process. By way of this process police departments across the US seize illegal property or just property from people who are too weak to push back against it with expensive lawyers. These funds have a purpose, they keep the departments functional. Given how varied police funding is in different parts of the US, the civil forfeiture amounts vary. Other slush funds are also around, mostly in the form of money/assets that is "borrowed" from special operations.

One of the most interesting documentaries to emerge out the Cville incidents was the work of Elle Reeve. In the documentary at the 9 min mark, a 3%er (or Oathkeeper) can be seen on the phone with some police official. The 3% er threatens to send "200 men with guns" to do something unless the Police official complies with his demands.  This gave me a very Punjab 1980s vibe.

Armed men talking down to police officers is something I first saw in Punjab in the 1980s. After that point was crossed, the Police began bribing the extremists not to be hit. The slush funds built carefully over decades in the local PDs were quickly drained down as the Khalistani extremists (now chock full of random criminal elements) began to demand a higher baksheesh not to kill cops.

I feel we are in a similar place in the US. A number of police forces are infiltrated by Nazi sympathizers. It is difficult to gauge the extent of infiltration but risks of this kind of thing multiply in mofussil areas where police forces are small and there just aren't enough resources to do anything at all. It is in such areas that the Nazis with their heavy weapons can overwhelm local policing resources and compromise the slush funds.

Once those slush funds are under the control, they will try to establish a mafiosi system which pays them instead of the local PD. In this way the Nazis will supplant the local government.

Readers should recall that the Nazis were able to carry out the bulk of the holocaust in a very short time because they quickly reorganized local police units and reserve units to perform the actual task of genocide. These units had already been infiltrated by genocidal persons like Christian Wirth and so they were able to adjust to the needs of the task of mass murder.

I think we should recognize that to Donald Trump's failed political platform the Nazis were nothing more than AstroTurf. The only interest Donald had in them was a political fodder for his divisive political campaign that appealed to the racial fragility of old white boomers. I guess in that sense the old white boomer is not that different from the old Hindu boomer in India. Both share a sense of cultural displacement and a racially driven sense of fragility.

But the reality of Nazism is that it is not anyone's AstroTurf. It is a persistent and unrepentant evil - a most horrific form of criminality that soon overwhelms those who seek to ride it into political power. Once this criminal beast is off the ground and running - there is often no way to stop it without killing a staggeringly large number of people.

By refusing to recognize these facts and pandering to some twisted sense of ego - Trump has failed to provide the critical leadership needed at this time. With him acting like this the USG will not be able to bring federal resources to bear on the Nazi problem and the cancer will metastasize. It will most likely consume the police forces - that most vital organ of our civil society.

I can't say I am surprised - Trump is not known for his ability to lead  - only for his ability to beguile.

Monday, August 14, 2017

Nazi astroturfing operation has failed.

The whole point behind Bannon and Co orchestrating the Nazi march in UVA was to create an illusion of massive public support for Trump. This became necessary as pressure on Trump grew from the Trump-Russia investigation and from his abysmal failure to keep nuclear escalation risks contained v/s North Korea. The Korean crisis with its direct implications for Bank of Japan - one of the biggest CBs investing in the US economy was really bad, we were seeing massive negative trends in the KOSPI and DJIA.

Faced with flagging poll numbers and a stock market that seemed to be sensitive to the details of the handling of the DPRK crisis, Trump had to launch some kind of micro-Reichstag fire that would make him seem indispensable. Otherwise the blame for this would fall directly on him.

The way it should have played out was that the Trump inspired Nazi march would invite a massive Antifa counter-protest. And the clashes between the groups would escalate to the point where the police would seem justified in using excessive force to go after the Antifa.

Things fell apart almost at the get go. The Antifa - Nazi clashes did not create quite the ruckus Bannon and Co wanted.

The Antifa for their part took a more muted approach focusing on aggressive internet exposure of Nazis rather than physical confrontation with armed Nazis.

In order to increase the tempo of the operation, the Nazis began attacking police for not being harsh enough with the Antifa.

This made it more difficult for the Police to justify attacks on the Antifa.

When the pressure built up inside the Nazi groups, they responded the only way they know - by murdering people. A Nazi drove his car into the counter-protesters and killed an unarmed woman. The Police are now trying their best to treat this like a innocent accident, when photo evidence from the scene of the crime is directly pointing towards premeditation.

The Nazis know they can't deflect from the murder charge so they have taken to vilifying the late Heather Heyer. The Stormer has come out with an article saying that she was was a "Childless, Fat, 32 Year Old Slut".

It is interesting to note that the Daily Stormer has dropped its "Blue Lives Matter" chant and suggested that the police officers who died in the VSP Helo crash on the same weekend deserved to die. This draws a visible line between the Nazis and the pro-police crowd. It also sets the stage for effectively labeling Police as "Race Traitors".

The Nazis are very keen to lay blame for this mess on the Police or someone else.

With the greater portion of the non-MSM coverage pointing towards RW aggression as the main driver, even parts of the GOP have escalated their war on the Nazis inside the WH.

The result of this utter fiasco is an major widening in the fissure inside the Trump Admin. The Ivanka/Jared/Bibi faction has broken ranks with the Oval Office and they are openly taking up a stance that defies the Nazis. This makes sense as their personal brand afford association with something so toxic.

The Bannon guys are digging their heels in. Their main argument (as espoused so eloquently by David Duke) is that "We did this for Trump". David Duke went so far as to say that Donald Trump should remember that "White People brought him into the WH". This IMHO is a very telling statement, it is at once a declaration of support for Donald Trump but also a subtle reminder to him that Duke and his Nazi kinsmen know where the bodies are buried.

The result of the Bannon willingness to dig his claws into Donald Trumps posterior is that Donald Trump cannot say a single word against him and with each passing day becomes ominously close to becoming described as a genocidal Nazi himself.

This massive fissure is cascading rapidly another CEO has left the WH businesses advisory council. Trump has criticized the CEO for leaving (and now its up to 4 CEOs out of the group) but it is another nail in the coffin of this administration.

Today - with attention turned away from the DPRK nuclear flashpoint - we are seeing stability return to the KOSPI and the DJIA. However if the impression that Donald Trump is some kind of closet genocidal freakshow gains too much ground both DJIA and KOSPI will resume falling again.

The Nazi astroturfing operation has failed miserably. It has created more problems for Trump than he could have imagined. He was barely able to keep above the water - this shit has straight up pushed him under. He can't blame this on anyone else - he is the boss - and this is on him.

The Nazis for their part are out of control. We can anticipate an upswing in attacks on minorities and police. This situation is very similar to the Punjab in 1983 after Op Bluestar. One should expect defections in the police and armed forces as closet Nazis break out.

Thursday, August 10, 2017

Estimates DPRK CEP and OAR for HS platform

Yesterday KCNA helpfully released this item about a DPRK strategic forces general explaining exactly how long a flight of 4 HS would take to reach Guam and that they would fall 30-40 km from Guam shores.

A lot of people like Ankit Panda are saying this is an effective NOTAM as DPRK does not issue NOTAMs for its ballistic missile tests. Ankit may be correct about that but I feel like they are more/less signalling to us what they see as the accuracy of their missiles. This part of any nation's decision making is very obvious to infer once you have CEP and OAR numbers.

Based on this DPRK General's statement I can peg the 2DRMS (98% hit probability) at ~ 10km. Which puts the CEP (assuming the DPRK guys aren't being weird about statistics) at ~ 4km at a range of 3000 km.

Also noting that they choose to fly 4 HS on this mission, I am guessing that they think they will lose half to enemy action and half to platform failure. As there is no target to hit here - this appears to be a demonstration only flight - I am guessing there will be no warhead on these.

I feel this puts the DPRK perceived OAR at something like 25% for the HS platform.

The CEP numbers are reminiscent of the estimates for HS/Rodong platforms but slightly better.

I haven't had time to do detailed calculations, but maybe that is not necessary as the DPRK guys are reporting the same CEP as an HS-9 platform at 3x the range. That suggests they are doing a better job of it than they were on the older HS platforms. Absent major improvements in manufacturing, tolerances and quality control, I can think of only a few ways to achieve this.

I suspect they are using a radio signal to shut off the stage 1 engine at the right altitude and I suspect that they may be hacking a GPS or navigation signal to correct their trajectory. (This is where the discussion on grid fins is making the rounds).

I really wish the people at ACW would get in a room and beat their heads together on what they think the guidance system for the HS ICBMs is. They have eyes on this for a very long time, also I am skeptical that anyone has been able to recover the guidance compartment from the recent HS tests in SoJ. It is unlikely those would have survived impact or that it would be possible to find where they fell on the ocean floor without putting in some serious effort. I don't think one is going to get to see the guidance systems, at best one might get a few helpful hints from the Libyran HS variants that were donated after the Gaddafi regime fell. I think the ACW guys guesswork on the choice of guidance systems is the best we can do as OSINT goes.

I feel that that if the DPRK guys are themselves convinced that their CEP is poor and OAR is low (like the Guam KCNA press release suggests), then they will have no choice but to pursue a high yield staged physics package.

So far I do not believe they have demonstrated anything beyond boosting. From single point measurement of the Mb values at Pungyi-Ri I think until we see a M6.3 quake at that location and an attendant Neutrino detection events, I am not comfortable saying that DPRK has the capability to achieve staged nuclear reactions.

This I feel really acts a major driver in DPRK nuclear testing.

In the past I have stated that a "Shipping Container" or "Bullock Cart" nuke (as they call it in India and Pakistan) is not a reliable means of delivery. I stand by that, but as a holy-fuck-I-am-desperate-for-any-deterrence-at-all idea - it is sadly viable.

I feel Trump has pushed the US into a commitment trap. If Trump does not deliver a military action, he will lose face and while that might be a reasonable thing for others, it is not something he can expect to survive politically.  The US for its part will suffer even more if Trump does not action on his talk of a decapitating strike. The US will lose credibility regionally, and given how weak its position in the Korean peninsula is - the US cannot afford a major credibility loss.

We are on the path of no return.

A lot of what happens next will be determined by whether DPRK can demonstrate a staged burn capability. If Trump inspired B1-B patrols do not deter DPRK from testing - then it may make sense for South Korea to change sides and sue for peace independently of the US. 

ps - Also apologies to people who were waiting for the Bridges of Xizang County post. I am still working on correctly identifying the 11 key bridges across the Tsang Po.