Wednesday, August 23, 2017

The threat posed by online Nazis

At any given point in time there are always segments of the population that harbor extremely regressive or destructive thoughts. Extremist groups typically form when sufficient numbers of these people come together and form a loose association. With time the association strengthens and then over the timescale of a few years the group dissipates.

This dissipation is due to a variety of fissiparous tendencies that are typically at play in any social group. Things like ego clashes, unsustainable patterns of funding or group activity. A solid core of ideas (relevant in a certain enduring social or economic context) or a charismatic leader or a steady stream of conflict capital can help keep groups together for periods exceeding the aforementioned natural timescale.

As a historical example, consider the case of Sikh extremist groups in Punjab. This is a heavily studied system both in India and abroad. There were always Sikh extremist groups that held extreme views. However with the appearance of Jarnail Singh Bhindran, these groups coalesced into a loose alliance and eventually threatened public order in Punjab and the integrity of the Union of India. After the Indian Army's Op Bluestar killed J S Bhindran, many believed the worst was over. However the public sympathy, the HR violations during the Army led Op Woodrose and sustained support to the extremists from the Pakistani ISI kept the movement going for ten more years. During the entire period of the "Khalistan Insurgency" - the extremist groups presented numerous fissiparous tendencies. Groups routinely formed, broke up, changed loyalties, ratted each other out and even fought and killed each other. However the central dynamic of the insurgency proved to be an alignment of these groups that endured far longer than anyone would have anticipated from historical data. In most Indian literature on this movement, this endurance is attributed to a particular cell of the ISI playing a major role in structuring funding and armament supply channels to these groups. In non-Indian literature this endurance is attributed to the ground swell public anger caused by HR violations by Indian security forces. I feel both factors were at play.

Fast forward to today and in the age of the internet, there are numerous opportunities for disparate extremist groups to engage in communications and common agenda building. The stable of hyper-empowered individuals and influencers is quite large (as one can easily draw on a globalized base) and there is an immense opportunity to use AIs to fluff up the support base of the movement. Given the way online advertising works, it is very easy to raise money for sustained online operations. We find (analogously to the GoI of the 1980s) that groups are interacting in ways that cannot really be controlled or precisely anticipated.

So it is no surprise that we find Nazi groups abundant on the internet. As I had indicated earlier Nazis are an extremely dangerous entity - capable of masking their genocidal agendas in a variety of wrappers. Once they get someone to participate in their agenda, they own that person - even if the person themselves doesn't want to be owned. Dissociating oneself from the Nazi agenda can be extremely difficult. Just ask the Germans how hard that can be.

In the US today we are seeing disparate groups, anti-govt militias, Sov-Cits, "White Nationalists", Oath Keepers, 3 Percenters, toxic Christian groups, Men-who-hate-Women etc... all gathering under the umbrella of the Alt-Right. We are also able to discern a significant participation and engagement in these groups by RIS fronts (though most of this seems to be B Team/GRU led - if there is a A Team/Xdir involvement it is not obvious at this time). There is also support from GOP and Trump organization types both of which appear convinced that this coalition of groups is somehow key to their personal political survival. (Again parallels to the Punjab situation abound!).

While it is important to remember that there are differences between the various groups in the coalition, it is IMHO equally important to focus on the one thing that brings them together - contact over the internet. Without this contact - which permits sharing of schedules, money and agendas (threads that bind) - there would be far less unity in this group. Cutting this form of contact down is impossible - you can shut down websites or twitter accounts but as IS demonstrates each day - there will always be ways to dodge any barriers you put down.

It should be relatively easy to track the schedule alignments by simply following the public calls for rallies and the responses from various group members.

It is much more difficult to find shared sources of funding, as most of these will have layers of security built into it. If the channels lead back to RIS, then one will not find them without serious effort.

It is moderately difficult to identify the threads that bind. As far as one can see based on random sampling there are four strands that bind these groups quite strongly

1) shared anti-Muslim sentiments
2) shared anti-Media sentiments
3) shared views on Immigration
4) somewhat shared anti-Jewish sentiments (toxic Christianity)

It would be nice to see some statistical evaluations of these "ties that bind" to see a rank ordering in terms of strength and to determine who exactly controls the definition of these agendas. Usually an agenda is shared, but whoever speaks first is the leader. If one finds that Nazis are defining the agenda, then their influence will be far more pervasive that even I can imagine right now. There are a number of subject matter experts who have strong views on where exactly the balance of power between these groups lies. I respect their scholarship but the opinions of a few PhDs will not convince anyone especially when there is significant political pressure to reject those opinions. Only rigorous data based analysis will sway minds.

National security strategists in the Govt of India in the early 80s failed to grasp that merely focusing on the microscopic fissiparous tendencies of the Khalistani movements would not protect India from a deadly convergence of these agendas. An entirely separate set of tools were needed to cope with the factors that brought these groups together. And a completely separate set of tools was needed to stop infiltration of these groups into the law enforcement community.

The first set of tools yielded moderate success in about 5 years after the onset of the insurgency. The Government of India was able to dominate the situation at great cost but what little success was achieved owed a great deal to the work of people like Dir (R&AW) A K Verma who eventually brought Gen. Hamid Gul and the ISI to the negotiating table.

The second set of tools were only able to achieve desired results after about 10 years. Even at this time - a low level but detectable presence of Khalistani groups remains (so nothing has been completely eradicated). Most of this portion of the story was driven by aggressive police officers like DGP K P S Gill.

The timescale for the resolution of the conflict was set by how long it took for Govt. of India to recognize the problem at hand and apply the right tools.

It's complicated. 


At 11:15 AM, Blogger Wise_Ass said...

Except you are completely looking in the different direction! :)

"The fascists of the future will be called anti-fascists"

German authorities have banned the most influential internet website of Antifa – the country's militant left -- in the wake of violence that occured last month outside the G20 summit in Hamburg.The violent clashes between the Antifa and police led to around 476 police officers being injured, while around 186 demonstrators were arrested and 225 were temporarily detained.
Local police said at the time that the militants set up street barricades, looted supermarkets, torched cars and attacked police officers with Molotov cocktails, iron rods, and slingshots.

At 11:27 AM, Blogger Wise_Ass said...

At 6:53 AM, Blogger maverick said...

>> "The fascists of the future will be called anti-fascists"

That is the current line pushed by Kremlin backed Info Ops forces.

Your adherence to the party line is remarkable.

At 8:14 AM, Blogger Wise_Ass said...

Dont see why I have to put myself reflexively in opposition to everything Russia does even if Kremlin is pushing this line.From where I stand I feel most threatened by far-left,so-called left,China and Islamists!That would be sort of my opposite team as an Indian.I cant be bothered even if USA is overrun by literal white supremacists which would be great in my book!

At 12:38 PM, Blogger maverick said...

But reflexively hostile to "liberal" causes OTOH...

At 2:13 AM, Blogger Wise_Ass said...

liberal cause? these days is what exactly? open fucking borders?,white men must die,kill cops,fuck nationalism,modcoddling&giving backdoor access to disgusting Islamic idiosyncrasies in society!

Here is a good article,though its focus is on Islam and Liberalism

The point is not that some extremely powerful force called Islam single-handedly sabotaged the late-Westsern liberal order all by itself; or that free-market capitalism and Western democracy was about to put a chicken in every pot if Islam had not resisted…The point is that the system may have been threatened by failure because of its internal contradictions and its own limitations anyway (as a friend put it: “just to be clear liberal order is broken because it doesnt take cognizance of the fact that humanity is broken“. Maybe, maybe not) but whatever deficiencies existed WITHIN liberalism, Islam forced them into the open…and it did so in such a way that it put the whole project in doubt in OTHER minds as well, leading to a vicious cycle of internal doubt, further decay, bad solutions, more doubt, more decay..

THIS challenge in fact proved most difficult for Western liberalism to process; the fact that large numbers (probably clear majorities) of Muslims simply did not accept the most fundamental assumptions of the post-enlightenment Western liberal worldview was hard to see because it was so hard to imagine. This was such an alien thought (especially to those on the Left side of the liberal spectrum) that it was repeatedly obfuscated under other categories (“poverty” , “colonialism”, etc). It was not seen because it seemed to undermine the universal validity of the whole liberal project. Better to not see it…But it continued to be inconveniently resistant to liberalism… And as events and examples multiplied, they evoked rethinking in other groups. Ultimately, the emperor started looking ragged, if not completely naked.

One striking problem, for example, was the resistance of Muslim populations to joining the mainstream in countries they migrated to. SOME resistance to assimilation is certainly not unique and has been exhibited by many groups of immigrants, but it does seem that Muslim resistance remains greater than that exhibited by contemporary Hindu, Sikh or Buddhist migrants. Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, but when the same thing happens again and again, people start looking for explanations. Unfortunately, not necessarily for good explanations..).

Anyway, the point is that as Muslim resistance refused to go away, all the other alternatives to late-Western liberalism (many of them much stronger in material terms than any Muslim country or party) like Great Russian Nationalism and its Orthodox Christian backstop, Chinese nationalism with Confucian and fascist characteristics, nascent Japanese nationalism, Hardcore Hindutva in India; all of them became stronger because Islam had already wedged the door open and thrown open the possibility that the liberal project itself may be incoherent; may be hollow at the core; may not map to the real world; and may even be dangerous to non-Muslim groups who try to stick to it..

At 4:30 AM, Blogger maverick said...

I rest my case.

It is not so much your reflexive hostility towards "Liberal" ideas as you define them that I find notable.

It is your complete lack of critical review of all things from Moscow that I find concerning.

At 11:09 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

if we can get past the personal slights, the question is, nationalism inherently racist and fascist? can any of it be legitimate?

the liberal globalists seem to think no.

At 5:46 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Nationalism of the Westphalian variety is a lost cause in a globalized economic framework. From the perspective of shared global values, there is no sense in pursuing excessively narrow ideas embodied in Westphalian nationalism. This is the essence of why European nations are failing at national integration. The divisive ethic of their core nationalism is driving them into a state of perennial civil war.

The US and India with its "melting pot" model is much closer to the "Muttahida Qaumiyat" of the variety described by Maulana Ahmad Husain Madni. However as so many people in India (US) have decided to believe in Hindu-uber-allez (Nazi/White-Supermacist), there is little chance that something as subtle as the "Muttahida Quamiyat" Model will survive. It was a hardy little thing, but with stupidity rising to epic proportions, it will not survive.

Honestly Ralphy, with RU backed RW extremists in positions of power in IN and US this question is academic.

Folks like Trump, Modi, Erdogan and Putin are going to shove their weird fucked up ideas down out collective throats and a Nazi scale holocaust will occur in its wake.

Will the human race survive such a cycle of violence? it is difficult to say - I think it won't but that's just me.

It is tempting to believe that a massive fratricidal war (which even Putin doesn't want) will somehow be avoided. But I fear it will not be possible to sustain that belief for much longer. Each day I for one grow weary of telling myself that somehow this grand filter can be stopped and humanity can be saved.

Too many solutions involve saying the words "if only everyone would...." - no one wants to change.

As we delay and haggle over words extinction level environmental catastrophe draws ever nearer. Once the world average temperature exceeds 1deg rise, the trapped methane in the earth's crust will begin to de-sequester. At that point there will be no stopping global warming or the ensuring extinction of the human race.

At 11:42 PM, Blogger quantum chaos said...

its that Bad Mav? From my bubble world seems to be a crazy place at the moment, but apocalypse?

At 4:44 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Quantum Chaos,

I keep telling myself - that it can't be that bad.

Then I see the real world and I can't help but think it is just that bad.

The RIS backed RW factions in the US, EU and IN are well positioned to exploit the ennui of the masses. As prosperity has come to these countries in the last 30 years, the boredom, hubris and entitlement has grown to epic proportions as well.

Boomers in these countries are so completely self-absorbed with views such as this ( and so completely in denial of their own responsibility for this situation - that they will go to any length to drive us into another useless state of war.

The way this generation of idiots who will never fight in the wars they start fondly speak of mass murder and make veiled references to a carnage of unknowable proportions - I feel like I am the fool to believe that peace is possible at all.

As they hold all the levers of power in these places, they can impose their antiquated views on carbon utilization and nationalism on the rest of us without any real opposition.

Do they comprehend that the environmental ELE is entirely possible?

Do they understand that starting another unwinnable war will only further sap the economy of resources they will need in their remaining years?

Do they get that they can't expect Millenials to support them through the most difficult period of their lives and shit on the Millenials heads at the same time?

Or are they so far down their chickenshit hobbessian shithole of a mindset that they have lost sight of these realities?

I used to think that the "boomers" that preceded WWI was the worst generation in human history but now I think the post WWII boomers might be displacing those guys for that terrible position.

At 7:03 AM, Blogger Wise_Ass said...

Federal authorities have been warning state and local officials since early 2016 that leftist extremists known as “antifa” had become increasingly confrontational and dangerous, so much so that the Department of Homeland Security formally classified their activities as “domestic terrorist violence,” according to interviews and confidential law enforcement documents obtained by POLITICO.

Since well before the Aug. 12 rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, turned deadly, DHS has been issuing warnings about the growing likelihood of lethal violence between the left-wing anarchists and right-wing white supremacist and nationalist groups.

Previously unreported documents disclose that by April 2016, authorities believed that “anarchist extremists” were the primary instigators of violence at public rallies against a range of targets. They were blamed by authorities for attacks on the police, government and political institutions, along with symbols of “the capitalist system,” racism, social injustice and fascism, according to a confidential 2016 joint intelligence assessment by DHS and the FBI.

At 8:45 AM, Blogger quantum chaos said...

RIS backed RW in India? Are you alluding that 2014 elections were rigged? Also what do RIS/CIA get by having a handle on India. We are still a piss poor country.

Yes I do get some of what you are saying. Some utterings of 'young' lawyers in Delhi courts is outrageous to say the least. Would make for a good sociological study. Their parents are surprisingly modern whom these guys call deracinated.Kinda worrying, but I doubt these guys will start a war. I could be wrong.

As of ELE these guys are convinced that global warming is a scam to stop Indias industrialisation. I dont know much about it.

At 9:55 AM, Blogger maverick said...

I think Dr. G. P. Srivastava is a great engineer and he has a great team. I really doubt the 2014 elex in India were rigged, there are too many checks and balances in India. Also everything is controlled from the center (unlike the US where it is more decentralized).

I feel the much more frightening reality is that so many Indians thought Modi was a great idea as PM. The appeal was across demographics.

But over the years a few things have begun to stick out.

1) The similarity in Social Media campaigning tactics (such as use of bots, troll armies etc...)
2) The Lodha clan's ties to Trump.
3) The matter of SSwamy's sudden declaration of support for DJT and the way the HAF was behaving during the US 2016 elex.

Against this backdrop of oddities, I feel there may be much greater overlap between current events in the US and India than I had considered possible before. Whatever happened in 2014 - what is actually going on right now inside 7RCR - is completely different. We may be dealing with a creeping incursion. It is not uncommon, if the Modi machine is short of money, it may be that it has turned towards the Trump/RIS operation for a short term loan.

Now that the RBI's own numbers have come in, I am confused by what AD is still doing in 7RCR.

At 9:59 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Also the boomers don't want to cut back on Carbon use.

And they don't want to stop talking nonsense about a war with Muslims. There is some bafflig idea that this going to build character among Millenials.

And they don't want any reduction in their own quality of life despite the fact that as they age, they are aging they are consuming resources that they are not productively replenishing.

When one brings up the ultimate consequences of such thinking with people of this generation one gets two responses

1) No no it will never come to that... and
2) Well all that will be after we have passed.

One doesn't know what to say to someone who thinks in ways that all converge on a genocide or ELE but refuses to acknowledge responsibility for this outcome.

"No no no I don't think there will be a genocide, but Uniform Civil Code and Art 370 is next - just wait for them to get control of Rajya Sabha"...

At 4:59 AM, Blogger Wise_Ass said...

Why do BJP/RSS need Rajya Sabha majority for Muslim genocide? :D

Is Modi going to pass Muslim Genocide Act 2018 in both the houses? :D

I am not saying there is not going to be a showdown with Muslims.Everybody(Muslims are) now is in a fucking Saudi Niqab and Muslim women's faces are being blacked out in public pronouncements in Kerala,Bengal,UP,Bihar at Panchayat and college level..In UP,all Muslim run schools said they wouldnt stand for National Anthem.Remember when Muslims use to say they have problems with Devi
eulogization in Vande Mataram but no problem with Jana Gana Mana(which I would be great to have army,CAPF onboard when Muslims finally show their real face in full vishvarupa.I agree.

At 10:06 AM, Blogger Wise_Ass said...

At 5:39 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

amazing conversation between prof peterson and prof weinstein with joe rogan hosting.

At 3:48 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

it is time to sanction the big state owned chinese banks that finance noko. mofos want to threaten us with nukes then let the chinese share the pain. they all do business in the US. no more of that happy bs.

At 3:55 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

the US is by far the chinese largest customer. why trade with aholes that sponsor junkyard dogs that makes threats to our existence? I'd rather live a less creature comforts than be a subject of nuke agression.

At 3:56 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

sorry walmart and apple but you suck anyway. bunch of damned globalists,

At 5:16 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Wise_Ass,

"Why do BJP/RSS need Rajya Sabha majority for Muslim genocide? :D

Is Modi going to pass Muslim Genocide Act 2018 in both the houses? :D"

I don't think they do.

IMHO a tribal genocide does not require any of those things. But given the scale of social engineering that these people want to carry out - something as simple as a tribal genocide is not going to cut it.

But to the people that hate Muslims in India, these are all steps that need to be taken to de-protect the Muslims. This is all passed off as a desire for equality among religious sects but in reality is merely a way to sugar coat the real desire for a genocide. The denial of the inevitability of genocide is a merely a psychological tool to avoid facing the cost of one's own actions. Somehow the people proposing this seems as ill prepared as the average Wansee conference attendee for where it is all going.

They may be right about needing to do all those things before embarking on a genocide of Muslims.

Historically most genocides have been carried out by first legally authorizing them as unfortunate but necessary measures. To do this, one has to reduce the ability of the target community to fight back in legal and physical means.

Some of the conditions needed to commit genocide are already present in India, Muslims are already ghettotized, they are largely poor and cannot stand up for themselves. What little equality they enjoy it is largely due to the protections enshrined in the law and the handful of police officers who are willing to enforce the law. Take those away and you have most of what you need to repeat the Nazi ideology.

It would be relatively easy to use hunger and disease as a tool to kill poor people in India but even the Nazis felt that would only kill 10s of millions at best. That is not going to move the needle as there are 300 M Muslims in India.

As things stand, in purely technical terms - there are NO simple tools that permit the genocide of a 300 million people. Even with nuclear weapons there is no way to kill that many Muslims *inside India*.

So I suspect that the people who want to do this are exploring various schemes - a combination of ethnic cleansing leading to forced ghettotization and "Pakistan ko bhagao" will likely be attempted when the political climate permits. The removal of MPL and art. 370 are reeds in the wind.

It may be to use nuclear weapons to murder enough people in Pakistan that the few remaining Muslims inside India would seek to reconvert back to Hinduism. As there is no real facility for reconversion inside Hinduism, and no Hindu could be sure that they had actually reconverted and abandoned their "Muslim Ways" - quite naturally any "ghar wapsi" converts would be reduced effectively to a lower caste. Even if they retained their caste surnames and professions - they will be treated as people of lower status. Once they are a lower status, the general structure of the caste system will ensure their continued oppression and eventual extinction.

In such matters I fear we are looking at the cruel heart of India. It is a terrifying sight.

You seem to be living in denial as to what the views you harbor are leading up to.

Please reconsider your views carefully and see where this is will take you.

At 5:18 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Ralphy,

I guess self-flagellation is in order but what you are proposing will crash the economy and end reduce your IRA/Social Security/Medicaid to pennies.

So against that backdrop - I have only one question.

Was it a staged device?


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