Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Storm clouds and lightning

When storm clouds gather lightning strikes with little or no warning.

6 Comments:

At 7:49 AM, Blogger maverick said...

This really is getting to the "predicting where lightning will fall level".

The political pressure on the PMO from within the BJP is quite high.

CCS Meeting has advocated restraint, but you see - once you get up to a certain level of escalation, things tend to have a mind of their own.

Back in the Parakram days - the idea of a sub-threshold strike was brought up. The problem with executing it at the time was that there was no clear definition of what the threshold was. Essentially General Musharraf had made the threshold issue very cloudy and the rationale was that with the military so visibly in power, there would be no way to deflect the blame on to anyone else. With that the threshold for nuclear escalation was much lower than perceived.

With a civilian leadership in place, there is a pressure relief valve. And then there is a perception that a subthreshold event will align Pakistani Army mindsets in a productive way.

It is difficult to argue against this. And now I am officially in the business of predicting where lightning falls.

 
At 7:52 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Many observers are seeing the NIA activity and the diplomatic posturing as a sign that the CCS has backed out of a more aggressive option, however I do not know if this is true.

 
At 5:50 AM, Blogger maverick said...

The PAF has entered dispersal mode. This is their defensive/force conservation posture.

The number of a/c on ADA have increased.

They are afraid of a Su-30MKI strike.

 
At 5:53 AM, Blogger maverick said...

The High Mark series is conducted every 5 years.

The last one was in Jan 2015 and the one before that was Jan 2010.

This 2016 Sept "High Mark" is not "routine".

 
At 5:55 AM, Blogger maverick said...

It only takes the Hunting Hawks 20 mins to carry out a strike on Samahini.

As shown repeatedly in "Op Wake Up" - there is no way that any PAF radar will see an incoming flight if it hugs the deck.

It will be a bolt from the blue - literally.

 
At 5:59 AM, Blogger maverick said...

This unscheduled "High Mark" is going to run up the hours on the F-16C/D MLUs.

Those frames just barely got back from Anatolian Eagle and Red Flag.

http://quwa.org/2016/09/09/pakistan-air-forces-summer-exercises/

 

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