Wednesday, October 12, 2016

The GOP Civil War - Why did the they walk back from cutting off Donald Trump?

As I indicated in the earlier post - the GOP broke with Donald Trump because he fell far behind Hillary Clinton in the polls. This imperiled the GOP's senate and congressional campaigns and that created a pervasive fear that their majority in the houses was under threat.

So why did they first push away from Donald Trump and then apparently walk back into his fold?

The answer is simple - the top of the GOP that sits in established seats and with long standing ties to financial channels in  Washington DC couldn't care less about Donald Trump and his shenanigans. The only GOP people who care about Donald Trump are the ones without that same sense of security.

A number of insecure Republican party politicians are still trying to ride the Trump tiger. They have actual hard data on how many registered voters they can count on to turn up at the polls on November 8th, but they do not have any idea how many of these people are hard-line Trump supporters. The absence of this data makes it difficult for these insecure Republicans to remain distant from Donald Trump for too long. When asked why by the press - these insecure Republicans will first indicate pause and then reply that their own polling says that Donald Trump comments on women do not seem to matter to their own voters. While his comments do not sit with their own personal views, they have to listen to the professional pollsters who are obviously supported by hard data. As that data never has to be released - the GOP flip-floppers can hide behind it.

The insecure Republican candidates can't become too distant from the GOP leadership either because that would lead to a serious shortage of funds and they must walk the line between riding the tiger and remaining loyal party people.

This is an impossible situation - no one can survive being pulled in two directions like this. That is why the middle of the GOP is splintering so badly.

What we are witnessing are desperate attempts to re-seal the ever widening rifts in the GOP.  Most of the efforts are being led by Reinhold  Priebus  Given that the GOP leadership probably does not want to see too many mid level people drift towards Donald Trump (given how hard they find it to get along with him)  - it is unclear if the "healing efforts" will actually succeed.

This is like watching one of those Afghan tribal coalitions fall apart. Uncles turn on brothers who turn upon cousins who turn upon fathers and so on.


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