Sunday, October 02, 2016

Climbing the ladder

This situation is climbing up the ladder.

I don't know where things are going to go.

The Pakistanis went on a media offensive yesterday by trying to take reporters to locations that had nothing to do with the Indian strikes on the "launch pads". Again this is understandable - everyone knows they have to do something to save face. But this is NOT the time to sound belligerent.

It is important to note that a "launch pad" is not a "camp". There is no camping at a "Launch Pad". It is simply a way point where the infiltration team gathers before making the passage through the AIOS.

The pad is usually 2 km from the AIOS. There is no line of sight from any Indian post. So in this article, when Mr. Rustam takes the NYT journalist to a place where Indian positions are visible - that is the *last* place where a "launch pad" would be located.

The pads are positioned in gaps between AIOS OP/LPs - precisely where local terrain breaks up the line of sight from the Indian posts. The usual launch pad is easier to access from the Pakistani side and difficult to approach from the Indian side.

When you lie that transparently - I don't know who is going to believe the Pakistanis when they deny that the attacks have happened.

The IA is claiming 20-30 dead per site and 7 sites in total. That puts the number of dead at around 200. That is a month's worth of infiltrators during the high (spring+summer+fall) season. I would be shocked if there was no drone footage and or if there was no collation team that accompanied the away teams.  You can bet your bowl of nihari that there are photos and videos of the events. The away teams were on the ground for a hour or so - plenty of time to get proof of kill or validation and the drones would have flown and done damage assessment. The IA has a pile of data they can share with the world at a time and place of their choosing.

I think the seasonal totals during the worst periods of infiltration in the 90s were in the 2000-3000 per season range. Someone can dig up the number from SATP and IA sources for confirmation but the numbers haven't been that high in a decade. If the IA did effect 200 KIA in this raid - the infiltration season is over. There is going to be no push in October or November. You won't able to convince the Tanzeems to put up the men if all the PA guarantees is that they will be wiped out inside Pakistani territory - long before they actually cross the LoC. If these numbers are anywhere near correct, that is a big hit.

The logical thing at this time would be to go into force conservation mode and ask all assets to go to ground until the shitstorm blows over. But instead in this environment - the super-geniuses at Aabpara- ask their guys to go after an RR encampment. This is very stupid - there is no likelihood of making it through the BSF screening force. You might as well ask the seeded modules to shoot themselves and their UGW hosts - because that is about as effective as this is going to be.

Seriously - what are you people doing in I'bad? Have you completely lost your minds?


At 6:03 PM, Blogger Nanana said...

While I have not studied Gen Sharief (how rational he is, or not), given that he has to retire in a month or so, hasn't the raid that wasn't killed his farewell tour? Won't he be forced to activate something to "save face" / "show balls"?

At 7:21 PM, Blogger Nanana said... Threats from Aabpara?

At 6:22 AM, Blogger maverick said...

I could not agree more.

Unless the main objective here is to accomplish a military coup inside Pakistan - I don't see what the point of ratcheting up tensions like this with India is.

I can fully accept that Pakistan needs to keep its human assets moving if it is to keep an eye on India's nuclear posture. That is the only way to hedge against a sudden attack, but there is no sense in getting into it when India is obviously riled up.

Scheduling that strike on the 46RR garrison - an attack that would have had no possibility of success - is madness. RR Garrisons are heavily protected by layers of screening forces. At a time when the whole valley was crawling with infiltrators they were regarded as the only part of Kashmir that was verifiably India!

Keeping in mind the Pakistani coup cycle - I would say we are nearing the tipping point where the military's anxieties about its growing irrelevance prompt a coup. There is a roughly 20 gap between coups, and so we are ripe for one in Pakistan.

At 5:44 AM, Blogger maverick said...

UAV imagery and data from ground intelligence teams that accompanied the assault team are due to be released soon.

IE has an separate article on the issue. It appears a big push was set up for october because they have to get the modules across before winter closes the passes.

I still don't understand what the point of the attack on Baramulla was. There is nothing sensible about going up against that kind of target.

RR camps were inserted into the valley when even the air and the water in the valley was hostile to India.

You can put an RR camp on Mars and from that point on that piece of Mars will forever be India.

There is no logical sense in attacking an RR camp.

Did the IA take an ISI officer prisoner on the raid? is he being held at Baramulla? is that why the facility was attacked?

Is that what the module was sent after?

At 3:04 AM, Blogger Nanana said...

Chandan Mandy (who reported on the 1st raid) has additional details.

He says that some folks seem to have been captured.


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