Friday, September 08, 2017

Some observations on the aftermath of DPRK 6

I am not a Korea expert, so please consider this as just mere comments of an outside observer.

1) KJU has released photos of what appears to be a mock up of a two stage nuclear weapon. The mock up is most likely heavily influenced by open source information available on the W88 warhead. The current consensus on seismic signatures of DPRK 6 is that that the device likely achieved 160kT. Per KPA sources, the rough estimates of CEP of DPRK missiles are in the few miles range and they seem to think that 1 in 4 missiles will make it through the BMD screen.

2) Against that backdrop it is reasonable to conclude that KJU (and DPRK) is pursuing a path that will lead them to acquiring two stage (high fusion yield) devices. This path appears to be motivated on the technical side by concerns about poor CEP and  low OAR of their long range delivery platforms.

3) It appears that at some point in the past Pyongyang has expressed a desire for a deal (mimicking the outline of the IUCNA). It is difficult to know whether this is just a "blow-hot-blow-cold" ruse designed to deflect attention from KJU's true intentions on the matter or if this is a genuine interest among some group of people inside DPRK for a normalization of US-DPRK relations.

4) It is also difficult to gauge the extent to which KJU's behavior is driven by internal threats to his power. As KJU has not earned his place at the top of DPRK military force, he nominally holds the rank of "Wonsu" but he does not hold the rank of "Dae Wonsu" that his father and grand father held. While there is little doubt that the DPRK Armed Forces will follow his instructions, they may not do with the same enthusiasm that they followed his grandfather or father. This IMHO reflects a distance between KJU's actual stature and his desired stature that will likely perpetually cause him to feel insecure.

5) Given that backdrop, if KJU were to weaponize his nuclear devices, several uncomfortable questions arise about authorized use or the likelihood of these weapons falling into the wrong hands. This automatically opens a discussion on Permissive Action Links and related safety systems.

6) As there is a lot of trust deficit between DPRK and the US, and that handing an issue of this sensitivity to Donald Trump is discomforting, I wonder if there is something to be gained by conducting a simulation of a negotiation between KJU and the US. I imagine there are enough subject matter experts in the US, Japan and South Korea that one could simulate a decent KJU!

I am tempted to think that perhaps if one engages KJU in productive dialogue, then one might be able to probe the issue of PALS with him. In the event that the desire for normalization of relations with the US is genuine he may agree to locating the US supplied PALS on his warheads.

While there is a significant gap between KJU expressing an interest in US manufactured PALS on his weapons and actually having US teams on the ground that put these PALS on to his weapons, but this could serve an important trust building step.

9 Comments:

At 8:28 PM, Blogger Wise_Ass said...

So a nuclear armed rogue state threatens a reigning hyper power with nuclear weapons explicitly,uses VX in a busy international airport for assassination,shoot IRBM over a trillion dollar economy which could have well have been armed for a high altitude NEMP warhead.
Response is providing PAL chips in return! :) Iran,Turkey&Pakis are prolly taking notes!

Why not pre-emptively nuke Pyongyang,nuke all counter-force pre-surveyed launch sites&sink all DPRK subs&ships.Why megaton nuclear pre-emptive air strikes so inconceivable?

 
At 10:40 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

no need for megaton nuke strikes. low yield precision guided weapons will suffice. never happen, though. we have a death wish suicide appeasement pact.

 
At 10:47 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 10:48 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

plus, a first strike would upset the walmart, apple, google, microsoft oligarchs also

 
At 10:52 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

I'll say this though, kimmy jung un has been a marvelous benefactor to lockmart. boeing. raytheon, darpa and the pentagonians. look forward to some marvelous weapons development.
:-)

 
At 6:13 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

lockmart et al has a worship chapel located in each of its facilities with a statue of the kim meister where executives can lead employee worship services dedicated to their god of congressional largess. cpa big 4 firms attend as the vestal virgins to their client executive priests.

 
At 6:16 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

trust me, its a beautiful ceremony with plenty of incense, smug self assurance and plentiful pay packets all around.

 
At 5:56 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Wise_Ass,

Please re-read the entire post. Yet again - you have missed the key point here.

Dear Ralphy,

Escalation is off the table, BoJ will not go along with it and neither Wall Street. Trump may fume at Cohn, but if Cohn resigns Trumps machine will collapse completely. Extremely rich people have been told by Trump that he's going to get the IRS and the SEC off their backs and that they are going to make $$$$$ off a stock market rally that will rob small investors blind. If Trump lashes out at Cohn, Wall Street will set him straight.

That feedback mechanism is not entirely reassuring to me. I fear Trump's ignorance and general incompetence is likely to start a war no one wants.

He keeps referring to KJU as "young man" and Prez Moon as "weak".

I don't think he grasps that Moon was part of the same ROK Cdo unit that strapped claymore mines to their bare chests and walked up to the Bridge of No Return. Moon's unit has been through some shit, Trump's "personal Vietnam" was his STD.

Trump also doesn't grasp that KJU is fighting for his life, if he can't show his ability to lead DPRK to victory repeatedly, Kim's enemies inside DPRK will literally feed him to the dogs. KJU has killed his own family members - the battle lines are practically outside his bedroom door.

Unfortunately for Trump and the Navarro/Bannon/etc... even the RIS paymasters don't want WWIII. This means despite all the bluster - Trump and Co are basically going to bend over and drop their pants for KJU.

The main RIS objective is to destroy global confidence in Brand USA. That AFAICT is going to be achieved. When Trump talks big and doesn't deliver, people in the US - his own "true believers" are going to abandon him. When Trump goes after KORUS at a time when KJU tests a full MT yield TN nuke, Brand US is going to be flushed down the crapper. That seems to be something Trump wants. I sense he wants to replace Brand USA with Brand Trump - you know standard middle eastern dictator stuff. He loves that shit and so do his kids. They see the US as one giant pussy or asshole - waiting to be fucked by rich people like them.

I would pity the poor midwestern farmhand who voted for Trump thinking he was going to remove the immigrants and MAGA - but I have no sympathy by crypto Nazis.

IC has broken through the RIS op on Twitter. This internet equivalent of the battle of Midway will decisively go in America's favor but a great war lies ahead.

 
At 12:10 PM, Blogger maverick said...

sorry

> but I have no sympathy by crypto Nazis.

should read

but I have no sympathy for crypto Nazis.

 

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