Wednesday, November 01, 2017

NYC attack - Jihadi spectacular or RIS riposte?

We have two things going on at the same time and it isn't clear which of them is at play in the NYC events.

ISIS has suffered massive losses in Syria, Iraq and Marawi. The result of this has been irreparable damage to the ISIS brand. This predisposes them to seek out spectaculars that inspire participation and donors. It is not clear to me how and entity that has lost its HQ coordinates such attacks across the length and breadth of the planet. If this NYC attack is ISIS - then this is their second big international operation after Niger.

With the defection of George Papadopoulous, RIS operations have taken a big unexpected hit. As I discussed earlier - they rely on an "A Team" to maintain a fragile sense of nuclear security. If the Papadopoulous defection put that organization at risk, then they are going to do something to send a strong message to USIC. The message probably reads something like "Do not mess with our assets or we will fuck you up".

In the past we have heard that there are suicidal people that seem to want to push up the ISIS brand even though they have no visible contact with ISIS. This always stuck me as a bit odd, if you were a homicidal narcissistic type - you would want all the credit to go to you.  Why would you want to give all the credit to ISIS which did nothing to help you?  And why does ISIS only claim credit for these events days after the fact? So either these people aren't a homicidal narcissist or ISIS actually helped them or both.

In her fantastic work R Callimachi pointed to a network of PGP encrypted instant messaging apps that were used in a patchwork fashion by ISIS inspired attackers to communicate with ISIS control room.  If one were to break into the devices of these "Lone Wolves" I wonder how many of them would show this kind of contact with ISIS HQ.

This brings me to another interesting point - most of these PGP encrypted messaging apps are hosted in RU. Telegram is a major favorite of the ISIS Jihadi community. Everyone swears that Telegram is penetrated by RIS because of the funny thing that happened around the mansion of the guy who runs the company.

Another point that always sticks out to me is the extent to which RU backed sources go to blame "HTS" (nee Jabhat-Al-Nusra) as a CIA backed entity. Whenever possible Russian sources fill YouTube with vids of Russian bombers "hitting HTS hard" etc... The RU guys are always willing to point out that HTS volunteers come from the US and that they are able to freely travel through western nations. They point out that that US friendly regimes in the ME back Sunni extremists wherever possible. All this is to project the HTS as a ultimate problem in the ME.

The US OTOH maintains that the true "bad guys" in Syria/Iraq are ISIS. First person accounts from the region point to ISIS being a Iraqi Sunni front run by the dregs of the Saddam era Mukhabarat. Those guys were pretty pally with the RIS. There is also information about Chechens entering ISIS ranks and we are told by RU sources that Kadyrov is stand-up guy - very aligned with Putin.

So if I accept the RU premise that HTS is a CIA proxy/ally - can I also accept that ISIS is a RIS front/ally?

And then what am I really looking at in NYC?


At 11:20 PM, Blogger Wise_Ass said...

If you are speculating without any basis Russian connection to Lower Manhattan attack,how are you any different than so-called fakenews?Because Telegram is from Russia..haha.So if they used whatsapp,is the attack from CIA? :D
If you read your own blog,your conspiracies&theories are way wilder(and as many times ludicrous,baseless) than the so called fakenews

At 4:58 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

dear wise ass: but what of his premise that of the cia backing al qaeda in syria? you buy into that factoid, right?

if that is so, then why not russian backed former saddamites, leading isis?

but that would be against your political ideology, wouldn't it?

At 5:06 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

with all the russian tampering on US social media not a word being said about it from the Indian russian shills who love modi.

I think India should look with askance within its own borders.

but nah, it will never happen. why?

'cuz US does it also.

but any Indian wants to go the US instead of russia. but they sure do love that russia.....

At 6:55 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear WiseAss,

I am saying I can't tell a RIS riposte from an ISIS original.

ISIS is the Donald Trump of the Jihadi world. They take credit for everything that goes right and blame-shift when SHTF.

If we accept the premise that HTS is backed by CIA, why also reject the idea that ISIS is a RIS front?

At 7:02 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Also in the same vein, if we must treat a guy like Paddock as some kind of deranged triggered individual (and not part of a conspiracy of old white men looking to regain the power over society by killing random innocents) - then we must look at Saypov in the same light.

Saypov is simply a Muslims who was triggered by the constant harassment of Muslims in the US.

Like Paddock who watched the daily humiliation of his kind by immigrants, gays, women, queers, trannies, liberals etc... Saypov saw a continuous stream of anti-Muslim hatred directed at him by Trumpers who feel safe venting hatred at him.

Mentally unstable individuals are triggered by random events.

So if you want to stop Saypov (and given that we are never going to have gun control in the US coz people like Paddock would never feel safe) - then the only thing to do is avoid triggering them.

That will ensure that you aren't nearby when the next Saypov or Paddock goes postal.

This applies regardless of whether Saypov is "real ISIS" or RIS provocation. The choice of targets is random.

At 8:24 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

there was no manifesto from A-o-A so to speak. so what do we know about him?......that he was losing to the casinos big time for the last two years. and that his father was a criminal psychopath.....

At 8:26 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

"why also reject the idea that ISIS is a RIS front?"

cuz russians are friends that's why. and you gotta support your friends. he wants to have their baby........

At 10:44 AM, Blogger maverick said...

If Trump/WiseAss wants to be friends with Russia he is welcome to. for the rest of us what is the incentive?

Regarding -"manifesto from Paddock"

There was a hard-drive missing from his laptop. Could be we haven't found the manifesto or he wasn't the writing type.

Also ISIS claimed Paddock too (or was that what RIS trolls wanted us to believe via their Trumper proxies?).

Parallels between Paddock and Saypov are many - big diff though is that Saypov didn't have AR-15 w bump stock. That's why so few are dead in NYC today.

At 6:13 AM, Blogger Wise_Ass said...

@Ralphy "Russian tampering of social media":It is such a sissy thing to bitch about 100K Russian ads&impersonating social media are assuming ONLY Russia is doing it!Imagine how much oil rich Muslim countries are doing?They are buying out whole Islamic/Arabic studies department in Western countries' universities.So you dont even have an objective view of going ons in strains of Salafi ideology which is a bigger danger IMO.

Paddock specifically targeted a republican majority target and clearly a liberal with Filipino girl friend(she looks old and dont look like disposible trophy wife or escort).So you cant bracket him with Richard Spencer types with super hot Russian girlfriend.I would imagine his anti-depressant medication turned him into a zombie killer.

wrt to "Mr.Deranged Animal" Uzbeki guy,he was clearly following ISIS "soldier of caliphate" protocol to the tee.Check out Rukhmini callamachi's timeline where she details this.
so there is no comparison with Deranged animal and motives unknown active shooter paddock.

wrt guns,
There are multiple constituencies

1) AR-15 semi-auto faction like Bill Whittle,who believes the US elites who hates Middle America will respect them and fear them only if AR-!5 assault weapon expressedly for war against rogue elite right is retained.Just watch Hollywood films and comedians who always take a swing at conservative americans and hate them.Crooked Hillary is on record stating she HATES them..about a 1/2 of US population and now we know she rigged Democratic primaries!!! so yes,you need guns more than ever if that is the attitude.

2)Hunters:This is the crowd who will not be too worked up about gun grab but will bitch about it and protest.Probably will go with bow-hunting or something harder.

3)The isolated gas station guy/homeowner:who cannot expect a police to show up fast enough in a hold up situation in a sparsely populated very large country like USA.This will also probably decrease policing cost.This is especially true in Texas where everybody is armed to teeth+stand&defend laws for tress-passing.

Even if you disagree with right to bear arms,you cant possibly do it without a bloody civil war if this is going to be Australian type gun grab given how strong the feeling is about guns in red states.This is best dealt with state-to-state basis.

About being Russia/Puting fan: I absolutely love Putin especially the way Russian deals with Islamic terror(bombing families and hospitals where terrorists are treated).The Putin fan base in West is prolly coz of this old school masculine cultivated image which is a breath of fresh air in Trudeau/Obama/Merkel who believes there is no good version of masculinity.LoL.

Mr.Maverick still havent come to grip with the fact that there is no scope for appeasing Muslims or Islam.You have to stand your ground and increase costs to them if Muslims are unwilling to reform their crazy failed ideas.There is no way around it.And with each Islamic terrorist attack inconvenient to your narrative,the non-Muslims will increasing turn to "stick" approaches.

At 5:42 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Wise_Ass,

Your love of toxic masculinity is noted.

Dear Ralply,

I dunno about you, but my questions are answered regarding where Wise_Ass is coming from.


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