Sunday, June 08, 2008

Nuclear Power Options For India

Everyone wants to see nuclear power in India.

It is a known fact that we do not have proven reserves of Uranium to do this even with a closed fuel cycle.

Ultimately anything we do - right now - is going to have to involve import of Uranium.

We have two choices:

- Import LEU from somewhere and they pay for the PWRs to run it. Done this way - everything from the LEU to the PWR will be under international lock-and-key.

- Import Natural Uranium from somewhere and run it in existing/expanded PHWRs. Done this way - the fuel and the spent fuel rods will have to be maintained under lock and key but the technology required to make electricity will be entirely under our control.

At the end of the day, as long as we plan any sort of independence in the nuclear arena, the NPA are going to come after us and there are *always* going to be technology control norms in place.

Today with people from the Carter Adminstration still calling the shots inside the NPA community - outdated ideas like stalling reprocessing projects internationally are still in vogue. As soon as the American reprocessing facility gets off the ground, I imagine these ideas will give way to new thinking in the NPA and a more permissive attitude will emerge towards reprocessing.

We need to be placed to secure international market access at that point. With spent fuel rods sitting in India and with proven FBR and AHWR technology, I think we will be able to offer competitive pricing on reprocessing related services.

It is too late to fix the "temporary short fall" with reactors running at 50% capacity factor - we are bang in the middle of it - led here by the utterly self defeating debate on places like the forum.

187 Comments:

At 9:28 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

continuing from the previous thread ... I hope DF folks know one basic fact ... these labs and orgs that put up nice JPEGS of TerraBoom etc have a basic goal (besides other psyops) ...

they just collect data on who is clicking the links and from where and how often ...

so, congratulate yourselves for making their job easier ...

:)

[may not be true for greenpeace ... but then it is so easy to hack in]

 
At 10:22 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

I think we are seeing another round of fresh horseshit appear from the media.

There is a report by Neelesh Sharma at the HT which talks about "Lots of Uranium" being available and "Even as it scouts for nuclear fuel from the US and elsewhere, India has been sitting on massive, untapped reserves of uranium, hundreds of tonnes of which have been discovered over the past couple of years "

Furthermore Neelesh Mishra goes on to tell us - "Together, these uranium resources would be enough to run all of India’s current and planned nuclear power plants for their entire lifetime of 40 years."

My point - err Neelesh - what is the usual turn around time to go from ore discovery to deposit exploitation? Not in a kleptocracy like China or Pakistan - but in a real functioning democracy?

When was the last time you picked up a shovel and dug for anything in India?

Somewhere deep within the article Neelesh finally quotes UCIL chairman - "“We are on track to opening up new projects, and while opening up new projects, sometimes there are some delays because of land acquisition, environmental clearances, and opposition from local groups,” he told HT."

There you have it now - laid out bare for our forum based geniuses -the single motivation underlying the funding of so many "anti-nuclear" activists in the last ten years - to drive up the costs of domestic uranium mining in India.

 
At 10:46 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello,

Do people understand this subtle fact - the "temporary shortfall" that AK alluded to is the "shortfall" due US backed efforts to frustrate domestic
Uranium mining.

Throughout the *late* 90s (1997-2000), the US backed a number of Indian groups to frustrate Uranium mining *in* India. This is how Medha Patkar, Sandeep Pandey, Arundhati Roy, Sudheendra Gadekar etc... all rose to prominence.

It takes some ten odd years to get an mining project off the ground. By 2005, we were already feeling the adverse effects of the shortfall induced by this US interference and it was the MMS government that took it upon itself to do whatever was necessary.

My dear BJP rakshaks - the *BJP* was in power when these critical decisions like "seizing land" or "forcibly opening mines by overriding local groups" etc... could/should have been taken. For reasons that I am sure you are well versed with - the decisions was taken not to do this. Now you can't suddenly expect the non-existant mines to start pumping Uranium on such short notice.

There is nothing we can do to stop the bad effects of the "temporary shortfall" - as the price of oil fluctuates we are going to get slammed by inflation in our bulk transport sector and with it food costs are going to rise. (Please read my previous posts on the critical nature of diesel in India's power production infrastructure).

Now we have to forget about this loss and look into the future. In the future we are going to face a higher oil price and the American economy is not going to be able to sustain all those ITvity and call centers in India. Most of those jobs are going to be less profitable in the next ten years.

If we lose the means to earn dollars, the current import-export imbalance cannot be sustained and we will simply not able to afford enough oil, coal and natural gas imports needed to keep the rest of the economy going!

From the perspective of food security - this means we have to take steps to reduce dependence on these commodities in our transport sector.

We *have* to substitute electricity for diesel in railways - or else we are pretty much sunk.

Look it has always been a guns v/s butter debate - but now simply having this debate is showcasing how badly disconnected people are from the stark economic reality in India.

We are looking into the future here - watching our entire food security system - our bulwark against widespread famine - gradually reduce to a shambles and people are talking about how many nuclear weapons we want to induct into our imaginary arsenal.

Forget that shit - unless the growth rate is sustained in the next quarter - there is a very high chance that we will see food riots in parts of India.

Dear BJP Rakshaks, please understand that if people become poor - your religious consolidation model will fail as spectacularly as it did for almost 50 years of India's history, during which time most Indians were very poor and your a-sindhu-sindhu hindu badhav concept was shunned by the majority.

A population that is more concerned about roti, kapda and makaan will set mandirs and masjids aside and vote on purely marxist principles.

 
At 12:27 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

there are many contradictions with the TerraBoom ...

if India can not detergent away Arun-dhat-tere-ki et al, why talk of detergents with terraboom?

secondly, the worthies on DF are quick to buy into any conspiracy/psyop theory, but fall for the cheapest tricks ...

consider this:

1. There is a wide EJ conspiracy to convert Andhra into a christian majority state.

[DF: of course]

2. Trilateral Commission etc with help from Rothschild is running the world.

[DF: obviously]

many more of these involving China, Russia and what not ... but then there is this:

3. Los Alamos, Livermore and some ".org" sites put up complete garbage pdfs and jpegs claiming tp be terraBoom design related stuff.

[DF: really? they would DO THAT? How diabolical!! ]

what gives?

 
At 6:13 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

I see that Shiv is asking direct and simple questions ...

but all he is getting is "akalmand to ishaaraa" ...

I am surprised his head is still attached to his body and not twisted out of shape attempting to follow the ishaaraas ...

:)

---------------

M,

about the Yoo shortage in India, a simple cliche works ...

don't look for malice when simple indifference/incompetence is sufficient ... both dhoti-wallah and pagri-wallah did not force the issue ...

 
At 10:13 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

on DF, two people have raised the right questions ... they are so simple and without the "expert aura" that they will be ignored ... the pace attack will be lost in favor of spin of ShauryaT types ...

1. Dileep

"WHICH of the processes need high energy data that needs actual explosions, and which doesn't? Which is complex, and which isn't?"

2. Prem

"What is the guarantee that new tests will be successful to "everyone's" satisfaction?"

 
At 11:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi folks,

In the NE Uranium mining projects quite a few local consultants, contractors and engineers were forced to back off/resign by those terrorist groups over there. The pressure from other organizations like the KSU is also intense. A few projects were launched in AP without much fanfare but these mines could yield only a trickle, compared to our present needs. Even these projects are under siege by assorted NGOs... and of course the locals.

I must say most of the locals are tribals who rely on limited forest cultivation (certain tubers) and forest products/game for sustenance, it's not easy to resettle them like you do with farmers 'coz they simply are not in tune with traditional farming methods used in the plains.
PS: There's the problem of their religious practices which are tied to groves and stone circles and Beast-Familiars etc. The tribals (of Deccan/Chota Nagpur, forget the NE ones) ain't exactly "Hindu" unless you take the all-encompassing, open and liberal interpretation; I mean, how many of us can really accept their Singbonga as a counterpart to our Surya/Prabrahmam and truly welcome them to the "real" fold. They can't be just transplanted to the temple based worship without YEARS of "training" and familiarization, the thing which the Vanvasi Kalyan types usually do.

Too bad for them, eh? Sad truth is somebody's always screwed in the path to progress... especially in a place like our Swades. Still, great care has to be taken while dealing with issues like this. After all, where do you think the Maoists are drawing their cadre from? There are reports which talk about the (Generic)Kali Mata dimension in the nearly ritual trial-n-murder of the "enemies of the proletariat". Mao would be so proud... didn't he use the Monkey King (and the other two companions too{?)) as inspiration for the masses?


Even if you manage to re-settle the locals or placate them with sops there's still the problem of bulk handling. Compared to Uranium mines the 24/7 monitoring of coal mines, coal fires, coal yards and "disposal" of wet-ash and fly-ash at the plant end is a piece of cake. This is where you have highly polluting spills, open containers,broken conveyor belts spewing poison all over the place, residual radioactivity and two-headed babies in the nearby village. We have seen many reports of this kind... this is precisely the weapon that the enemies use against us. We need better standards in storage/handling and disposal.... if we want to ramp up production and continue with existing standards we are going to be in a royal mess. I believe Maverick pointed to the plant waste aspect (as against pollution/hazards at the mining end) in the DF a long time back.
I am not sure I want to endanger the lives of my countrymen by digging Uranium from our not unpopulated zones or scraping it from copper mines if I can get it in sealed containers from some poor fool elsewhere. I mean, if I have a choice.....

Just an anguished ramble onlee...
Anywayz, I would like to see more of the mining and transport part. After all the DAE ain't building all those PHWRs for no reason now that the deal is jeopardized too (F*ck you very much, my chweet NPAs/Knickerwaalahs/Commies/DCH souls!), Perhaps the GoI has something else up it's sleeve. :)

-Anand K

 
At 3:27 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Australia under Kevin Rudd is trying trying to establish itself somewhere in the hierarchy of relevance by pulling stuff like this.
Nuclear disarmament body
Kevin seems to be on a mission unlike his ex who was a harmless poodle to US, to influence the strategic landscape, no doubt frustrated by its shrinking sphere of influence due to a more powerful India.
Would like to hear Kg's take on this new developments.
Dadamon

 
At 5:21 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

>>I am not sure I want to endanger the lives of my countrymen by digging Uranium from our not unpopulated zones or scraping it from copper mines if I can get it in sealed containers from some poor fool elsewhere.

Yes, of course. Why not ask Australia and Niger, I am sure they will be too glad to oblige.

 
At 8:35 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

I have never seen a good unbiased treatment of dangers of U mining ... the bad examples from the 1950s in the US (and surely worse but not public examples from the USSR) should not apply today ... back then there wasn't much known about health hazards of low doses (as opposed to a MegaDose in the GigaBoom in Japan) ... also, technology today is more advanced ... personal masks, for example, are higher tech ... air circulation can be made better ...

my suspicion is that the worst danger in U mining comes from breathing air with excess levels of Radon in it ...

For reference, here is the U decay chain:


238U -(4.468E9y, α, 4.270 MeV) 234Th

234Th -(24.10d, β, 0.273 MeV) 234Pa

234Pa -(6.70h, β, 2.195 MeV)
234U + (many gammas of moderate energy)

234U -(2.455E5y, α, 4.859 MeV) 230Th

230Th -(7.538E4y, α, 4.770 MeV) 226Ra

226Ra -(1600y, α, 4.871 MeV)
222Rn

222Rn -(3.8235d, α, 5.590 MeV) 218Po

218Po -(3.10m, α, 6.115 MeV)
214Pb

214Pb -(26.8m, β, 1.024 MeV)
214Bi

214Bi -(19.9m, β, 3.272 MeV)
214Po + (many hard gammas)

214Po -(164.3μs, α, 7.833 MeV)
210Pb

210Pb -(22.3y, β, 0.064 MeV) 210Bi

210Bi -( 5.013d, β, 1.162 MeV)
210Po

210Po -(138.376d, α, 5.407 MeV)
206Pb

------------------

Basically, Radon with its 3.8 day half-life is stable enough to exist in the air for miners' to breathe ... if done properly, recirculating systems could filter (traps) out the Rn ... that plus masks must make it quite safe ... how do the Aussies do it?

Now, this is the MAIN point ... if miners working INSIDE the mine are not getting sick, why would the population living around the mine site get sick?

I can see issues of round water contamination and U dust pollution etc ...

but, once again, please pull out a calculator and do some numbers before claiming that there is a problem ...

the entire problem, as I have said before (even in the EJ thread of DF), is one of education ... if people remain illiterate you can feed them any crap ...

actually, even the literate ones on DF buy crap on a daily basis ...

we need science education to overcome the evils of ignorance and poverty which are intertwined ...

 
At 8:51 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Saurav,

(from previous thread)

I am focused on the need to build new generation weapons.I am here to articulate that viewpoint.

Please clarify this.

Also - can you please answer my question about your claim that the "enemy" knows more about our capabilties than people on BR?.

 
At 9:02 AM, Blogger maverick said...

W.r.t the tribals, the problem is that life expectancy among these marginalised populations is low in general - but there is no way to make that claim on a piece of paper with supporting evidence.

Since there are no medical histories of the populations and no records of birth and death - there is no baseline for calibrating the evironmental/
quality of life impact of DAE's actions.

There is no way to prove that a specific death/catastrophic health problem is solely due to pollution induced by DAE's activities - however there is no way to disprove it either.

A number of the anecdotal accounts of suffering are simply not consistent. At times the people that come forward with complaints of exposure related illnesses are not the same people who made the complaints a month earlier. There is simply no correlation between the complaints made and the mining activities.

When the matter reaches a magistrate, the "anti-nuke" people completely dominate the footage, they create a huge media racket and fill the DM's desk with papers from NPA friendly "international" scientists. The entire purpose of the action is to file a few high profile PILs and cook up some statistics to make their PIL look scary enough.

No self-respecting judge will allow most of that garbage into evidence.

Ultimately in this racket the Tribals/marginalised people get screwed royally. Sure the DAE *may* be accidentally doing things that harm their - but then they end up in the hands of these so called anti-nuke groups and those guys really take them for a ride. They take their suffering and make a giant money making show out of it - and the tribals get a very small cut out of the money these anti-nuke groups collect.

By contrast in Kerala where there are detailed records of births/deaths, no statistically significant impact of the DAE's activities has been observed.

 
At 7:25 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

Is it me or do forumites expect the US to sell India stuff it can use for making weapons for "360 degree" deterrence.

I mean seriously, it is naive to expect the US (or anyone else) to supply us with fissile material for our bombs.

The entire problem is that after reprocessing, the claim to ownership of any portion of the fuel is diluted considerably.

We are going to have to come up with fissile material for our bombs on our own.

And every day that you spend arguing endlessly about this deal - you ensure that we have to dip in that much deeper into our domestic uranium supply to fuel the reactors.

So now tell me - who is anti-national? the Congress which wants to get this deal through within the 123 framework? or the BJP-Left combine who want to delay the deal and force us to dip into our domestic fuel stocks?

Listen people, I am 100% in favour of delaying things to shake down people for "get out the vote money" as they call it. I don't see why any Indian parliamentarian should demand any less bribes that his/her American counterpart but honestly - beyond a point a delay is not profitable - either strategically or economically.

Framing the debate in loaded terms like "Test Ban","Cap Roll Back Eliminate" etc... is all good for getting the blood flowing, but honestly - I mean 100% completely fucking honestly - its time to move on here.

The entire indo-US nuclear deal framework can sustain a limited amount of politiking. There is cap to the amount of footage cutting you can do. If the amount of hassle you generate exceeds the amount of money that can be scored off the deal itself - the irrespective of what currency you denominate this in - the deal will fail spectacularly.

In my old alma mater, there was a saying - let the awajoo types make awaj and get it out of their system.

But beyond a point - the awaj junta creates real problems.

The current atmosphere of debate has reached that level.

It is time to shut the awajoos down for the time being.

 
At 8:04 PM, Blogger maverick said...

I note that the selectivity with which the forum picks up stuff here continues.

The khetolai story has been discussed here from every angle but still after all that discussion - they are still picking up on one or two arguments and making bullshit counter arguments.

Who is going to give you the money to do a series of graded tests? will your father in law pay for testing a "primary, and primary+spark-plug+fusion fuel, primary+spark-plug+fusion fuel+fissionable tamper, etc. etc."?

Secondly, relocating khetolai is pretty much useless if what you are trying to preserve is infrastructure within the test range itself. If you don't want to risk damage to the structures in the area, you will place the devices deeper than your calculations require.

If you like believing the NPA Ram-kahani about the "fizzle" - and you think that the NPA claims about PKI's statements of "8kT" are true - then why do you have trouble believing Pabian and Gupta (the very same NPA) when they claim that there is an actual Prithvi missile battery stationed within earshot of the test range?

Do you people on the forum understand Shiv's basic point in this regard?

If you believe these NPA people - then you should believe them completely - there is no room for your half faith here.

Either you believe that India is capable of testing an advanced device within the limitations imposed on it by norms and physical limitations (Indocentric perspective) or you accept that India is completely incompetent and nothing will ever work anyway (NPA centric perspective).

This sunny side up idea from california is all good for entertainment purposes - but you risk your sanity if you start simultaneously cherry picking the NPA and the DAE's statements.

 
At 8:07 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Ah Sai K wants to construct "testing centers 1000 ft" deep.

Dear Sai K, your desire to fill the world with nonsense is admirable but tell when was the last time you dug a 10 ft deep hole in your backyard with a shovel?

What to say sir, of your desire for a 1000 ft deep hole?

It seems to me that the deeper the hole, the taller the Hon. Webmaster's doubts.

 
At 8:13 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Arre bhai, the forum going down was part of a software upgrade.

Is mey police ka koi haath nahi.

Jahan tak policewalon ka khayal hain, a "good" debate is necessary for democratic institutions to function.

Ask/argue for whatever you want - but don't cook up justifications based on lies.

 
At 12:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

So now you are in favor of Nuke deal?
It was not long ago (4/28) you were on record neither for nor against it.

Dilbert bhai's Magic goli helped you with this GYAN?

Also try to speak correct hindi.

>Jahan tak policewalon ka khayal hain

should be

Jahan tak policewalon ka khayal hai

So now you know policewale too.
Earlier it was Army chief and now police wale?

 
At 3:09 AM, Blogger saurav said...

the new mines that these guys are talking about probably includes a relatively recent find in the Ladakh area which may have ore assays in the > 2.0 per cent range.

Of course this is nothing compared to deposits found in some parts of Canada. Specifically the McArthur River mines, with an ore assay of some 17 per cent

 
At 3:16 AM, Blogger saurav said...

"If we lose the means to earn dollars, the current import-export imbalance cannot be sustained and we will simply not able to afford enough oil, coal and natural gas imports needed to keep the rest of the economy going!"

the current account is being shored up by remittances and of course being balanced on the capital account by inflows.


while it is true that service exports will take a hit due a downturn in America they are by no means the only way of sustaining the gap in our trade balance.

Moreover new markets in the Asia Pacific and latin America are opening up.


Our coal situation is screwed anyway. Indonesian and Australian ports are choked. China is not going to be exporting any coal this year or the next . Russian coal is headed overland to China. South African mines are flooded and shut.


We have loads of bituminous but it has high ash content . the government will soon have to get serious about fly ash utilisation.
More on this later.

 
At 5:13 AM, Blogger saurav said...

Herr Doktor should remove himself from the debate at DF if he wants to be taken "seriously" . That or he should quit acting as a conduit and ask his own questions for a change.

Of course he is probably "very clear" on the answers anyway.

 
At 5:41 AM, Blogger saurav said...

oh by the way cognitive dissonance can be self-inflicted as in the case of
1. Herr doktor- why would you want to ask questions to which the answers are already very very clear in your mind?

2. Pinglish exponen- Speak in a tongue that essentially represents a dumbed down "baki" (forgive my pinglish) people but pat yourself on the back for having successfully imitated their language.


The origins of cognitive dissonance may go beyond your momma no? tsk tsk , Kids today have a habit of blaming their parents for every virtue.

 
At 8:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This asshat Saurav is a NPA shithead and here he is freely abusing everyone. Go back to whichever sewer you came out of, Saurav, you NPA piece of shit. If you want to do some testing, try it on your nether orifice.

 
At 8:37 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Saurav,

For the third time could you please shed light on the claim you made earlier?

On an earlier thread on the forum - you said,

"the enemy knows more about our capabilties than people on BR".

How do you know this? Can you please share with us why you feel this way?

 
At 8:58 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello Anonymous,

I am not for or against the nuclear deal. I am looking to end wasteful debate.

However a way forward has to emerge - a semblance of continuity and balance has to be maintained.

All the while the BJP rakshaks sitting in the US and chanting on the forum have been arguing that "a foreign born woman" is trying to get a CTBT and FCMT through the "backdoor" in India.

I usually listen to these people because I feel the represent powerful India-friendly business interests in the US. I believe that they air views that these business groups are too scared to voice publicly.

Now in pursuit of a debating position, some of the BJP rakshak's on the forum invested heavily in Hon. Webmaster's (as yet) inexplicable tirade against the DAE. They argued that the DAE top brass had been compromised and that by refusing to test device designs of the *their* (i.e. the forumites) choosing, the DAE top brass were effectively "castrating" India.

Surely you cannot expect a humble servant of humbler servants of the people of India to let something like this pass?

If they can make a case for DAE leaders "castrating" India based on the reluctance to test imaginary designs someone photoshopped on the internet - surely I can construct an equally damning indictment of these forumites? surely I can argue that their desire to stall the deal out of bizarre notions of India that are out of sync with the economic and strategic realities?

I mean seriously - boss - they want uranium mines to appear inside India in ten minutes of them posting the idea on the forum. After that if any tribal objects the GoI is supposed to crush him/her and then somehow magically, the DAE is supposed to load power reactors with domestic fuel *and* run the reactors at high PLF and extract weapons grade Plutonium from the *long cycle* spent fuel rods? Surely these technical experts on RT/RM instability know that the weapons grade Pu can only be extracted from *short cycle* fuel rods? Can you have high PLFs and short fuel cycles?

So tell me why can't I ascribe treason as a motive for the forumites nonsensical desire to see India use up its domestic uranium supply to fuel power reactors?

It is my understanding that the BJP-Left combine is currently pushing the anti-deal posture purely out of a desire to shakedown the pro-deal business interests. At the end of the day - both the BJP and the Left want to sign the deal - they simply want to be first in line to sign it.


As a perhaps unanticipated consequence - the BJP and Left are creating precisely the conditions the NPA created in run up to the Hyde Act. In that sense the BJP-Left front combine's actions are in the "national interest" but beyond that - the savants on the forum are constructing imaginary national interests out of the BJP/Left's posturing.

Why can't I call all of these forumites - foreign residing terrorist sympathizers intent on committing henious acts of treason?

Their words are identical to the NPA.

They use the language of Pakistanis.

They create room for people like schandra to fly below the radar.

They attack the very fabric of the deterrent.

Is there some reason I shouldn't ask that all these people should not be booked under POTA?

 
At 9:13 AM, Anonymous Ananya said...

>>They create room for people like schandra to fly below the radar.

You have been corrected on that one and the reasons for the same, yet you continue to harp on it. Your credibility goes for a toss right there.

Your argument is valid on its strengths alone, but the fact that you are using such reasons despite being repeatedly corrected makes one wonder as to what *your* motives are now. Your repeated flip-flops on whether you are for or against the deal, makes one wonder whose interests you are serving. It has now become a personal jihad for you against Arun_S

 
At 9:53 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

if geniuses on DF stop to think before posting, severe cases of foot-in-moth disease can be avoided ...

this is from truth seeker dude:

"But this argument starts to swim across the logic-lake with great gusto and happily drowns in the middle. As Ramana posted earlier, multiple tests could have been conducted, such as just the primary, and primary+spark-plug+fusion fuel, primary+spark-plug+fusion fuel+fissionable tamper, etc. etc. So assuming that wildly disparate yields in the two stages can create some difficulty in assessing the tests, multiple tests could have been conducted, say one at a modest 45kt and another a full-blown one, say 200kt."

arre bhai, have you stopped to consider what 45,000,000,000 grams of TNT does? ... what happens to nearby shafts when you unleash this object? ... "multiple tests" in sequence requires a bit more than an excel spreadsheet ...

 
At 10:31 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Ananya,

Schandra was caught the first time around.

He was not caught the second time around - why?

If people can nitpick about which depth S1 was buried in, how much Khetolai shakes etc...

Why can't I nitpick at what they are doing?

Why is it that my credibility goes for a toss when I do this - but when they do it their credibility is enhanced? They become experts... and ... they become patriotic.

Why is it that when I freely toss insults just like them - my credibility is damaged but when they do it "its okay" because "it is their right".

If it is patriotic to say nasty things about the PMO, RC, AK etc... why is not similiarly patriotic to say things about the Hon. Webmaster and his friends?

 
At 12:25 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Ananya,

As I have said a million times before - I am not for or against the deal.

I like the idea of India being allowed to participate in the open international trade in nuclear fuels and technologies. I have no problems with GoI giving the necessary assurances to our trading partners that we are not using this trade for nefarious purposes. And because the Indo-US nuclear deal lets us do this - I like the Indo-US nuclear deal.

However I feel denominating this trade in the dollar is troublesome given its declining fortunes. Given the American insistence on doing everything only with the dollar - things become really really complicated even in the best of times. A barter trade agreement needs to be put into place to act as an offset to the falling fortune of the dollar. However negotiating this is even more complicated than the Indo-US nuclear deal itself. And for that reason I don't like the Indo-US nuclear deal.

Do you still have doubts about where I stand?

My main concern is our rising import (read energy) bill. Every drop of diesel we produce is linked directly to the cost of imported fuel. Every morsel of food Indians eat is priced according to the price of diesel.

What about this is so incomprehensible?

If the Hon. Webmaster and his friends weren't so busy talking utter shit about India's weaponisation options - or if Hon. Webmaster had spent the year studying India's energy scenario instead - would that not have been a more productive use of his time?

Remind me again - what anyone has gained from this incessant photoshop fetish? We have managed to build an entire website dedicated to visual appeal to young Indians - and now we are suprised that we only have a bunch of useless wankers around - who induct imaginary weapons and cry like children when their imaginations are crushed?

Should this be encouraged anymore?

 
At 12:33 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

>> We have managed to build an entire website dedicated to visual appeal to young Indians

that could be construed as insulting Jpeg Jingo Jagan ...

be careful ... air chief marshall gave him a Param (Tas)Veer Chakra for jpeg jingogiri ...

:)

{ducking out from drone attacks}

 
At 12:34 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Ananya,

Boss, what exactly do you expect me to say about a bunch of fools who complain incessantly about the costs of importing nuclear fuel but then happily open their wallets to import oil?

Does that not seem odd to you?

They whine nonstop about how the Nuclear Deal is going to shackle India to America's feet.

But then are completely happy when the country hangs itself with chains of imported oil!

What do I call such idiots?

They talk about conspiracies between the Ambanis, Birlas, Tatas and the Rockefellers and the Illumnati and the space aliens but then when it comes to asking for money for electoral purposes - who do they turn to? the same Ambanis, the same Tatas, and the same Birlas!

They sit in America and earn in Dollars, and talk about India acquiring 360 degree deterrence.

When the GoI indicates they are talking utter shit - they turn spit on the Indian PMO and the DAE.

Apart from a professional competence in spitting in the plate that they eat in... what qualifications can these people rightly claim?

They wipe their arse on the constitution and then wipe the constitution in our face.

Can you please suggest a name for such people?

 
At 12:41 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Alok,

IIRC the recognition was given for the book which Sameer and Jagan wrote. The book set the record straight about 1965 and riled the PAF enough to get AVM Cecil Chowdhary enough to write an article about it.

That was work worthy of high praise. Similarly the work done on the history section was simply superb.

My problem is with jpegjingogiri i.e. the fetish like worship of imagery and addiction to visual appeasement. These people treat BR like a porn site. They get off on the photos of the guns and bombs and think that India is great because it has some fancy looking imported crap they can post photos of.

I suspect that this jpegjingogiri has *no* support in the Armed Forces and more generally there is an acute awareness of the security risks that these people pose.

 
At 12:50 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

Hi M,

I am not aware of this book ...

but, I do recall that even the much touted "LIF prototype" had an imported laser ...

 
At 1:32 PM, Anonymous Faizi said...

I think a comment about the fuel situation is in order. The energy situation faced by India is pretty dire, and immediate. This is an election year, and even under this circumstance, the present govt has raised fuel prices by a significant amount, something which is very likely to cost it the general elections. This should be sufficient indication that there is little room for delay on energy related matters. I think also that given a choice between energy security, and a hypothetically more "secure" deterrent, the choice would be an obvious one (energy) for most Indians.

 
At 9:03 PM, Blogger saurav said...

Dear Sunil,
I think it is time I said No comment subject to USAPATRIOT , ITAR etc etc .
Also see the assertion I made carefully and the context , you may find the answer. I had used the phrase "eruditon being displayed on DF".

Dear faizi,
People do tend to vote with their feet don't they? having said that I don't think either the Deal or the newer generation weapons will suffice to win an election.


Dear anonymous from the other thread ,
I think I did give you lesson no.1 in economics yesterday.

Dear name calling anonymous from this discussion,
You continue to uphold the standards that are being set on DF or rather what is fast becoming ARF (Arm Chair rioter Forum) .


Thanks to redneck-in-chief Herr Doktor. I was wrong about him though. He doesn't display cognitive dissonance but actually pre-cognitive dissonance , because he already knows the answers etc etc

 
At 9:20 PM, Blogger saurav said...

Okay this is for Ramana.
The communist belief is actually not in the un-god but in mammon. Starnge as it sounds communists actually worship mammon and put it over all else.
That is why they seek to "gain" it and "distribute " it.

 
At 9:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Faizi said...
I think a comment about the fuel situation is in order. The energy situation faced by India is pretty dire, and immediate. This is an election year, and even under this circumstance, the present govt has raised fuel prices by a significant amount, something which is very likely to cost it the general elections. This should be sufficient indication that there is little room for delay on energy related matters. I think also that given a choice between energy security, and a hypothetically more "secure" deterrent, the choice would be an obvious one (energy) for most Indians.

Dear Faizi,

Extremely relevant point and to add to that economic security.

The problem on DF is that too many folks there believe that Nuclear "security" and "military might" is something that is detached from "economic security" or "energy security".

Heck if "Nuclear security" is all that was needed why did the Soviet Union collaspe, despite it having something like zillion "megaton" (the other craze on DF) bums and zillion big fat mizziles to launch them from?

Unfortunately the E-word, that is "economic security", has become taboo on DF. Anyone who raises the economic cost factor is immediately branded as a pansy or in the words of the Hon Webmaster, one who wants to "castrate" India.

Hence what started out as an extremely interesting discussion on the Nuclear deal has degenerated into a chest thumping tamasha of "we want bigger bums and bigger mizziles" - Freud would have been amused.

Maverick, on another note if you remember when the 123 document first came out one of the first comments made by the Hon Webmaster was "I will sleep easy tonight" knowing that India's interests have been taken care of.

Apart from RaviCV I wonder what happened to induce a 180 degree about turn?

 
At 10:03 PM, Blogger saurav said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 10:06 PM, Blogger saurav said...

Dear anonymous,
I am sure seeing what Russia has today , you can understand what kind of energy resources the erstwhile U.S.S.R was sitting on. In addition to Russia , it had Kazakhstan etc etc.
Add to this , it also had a bread basket called the Ukraine. then using your own argument why did it collapse?

It collapsed because it did not use it's own resources effectively i.e due to economic mismanagement.
so even with all the resources in the world you can collapse.

On the other hand Circa 1998 , India had a much smaller economy and was importing over 60 per cent of its oil even then. but managed the economic impact of sanctions didn't it?





The E-word counts not just as a phrase , but if you actually look at the context better. Pop econ Gurus (some of them still speaking English) read a few articles and draw conclusions.

when asked to delineate the exact nature of the sanctions regime and how it would effect our food or energy security.
they simply say "But it would!"

And by the way , by exactly how much will nuclear resources substitute our oil needs?

to answer this question , we will have to take into account the following:

1. How much of our power is generated from liquid fuels (high speed diesel etc.)
2. what is the logistical footprint of the coal that will be substituted by uranium for our power needs in the next 20 years. we will of course use this to calculate the amount of oil that will be substituted *indirectly* by eliminating the need to transport a certain amount of coal.

3. In the next 40 years , what will be the impact of High Temperature reactors that may lead to an economic way of obtaining hydrogen?

 
At 10:19 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Boss, you were banned on DF bcoz , you gave them a chance. However I do agree with some of the thing you say.

 
At 10:26 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi,

Thanks for the replies, Alok and Maverick, they give a fresh perspective. I am aware that at least one high profile case on Uranium Mining was dismissed by the SC, this was in 2004 IIRC. There was also this science team set up by BARC which concluded that the mining doesn't cause serious illness. I was told that this however was on the actual mining activity and not on the effects of the tailings left lying around. Apparently those studies did not go into the long term effects on the biota and sustenance systems giving appropriate weightage to residual radioactivity.... you know, the toxicology/sustained livelihood aspects. Great care is taken while handling concentrated residues but it's the handling of mill and ore “shavings” that leaves much to be desired for. Given the way the bulk materials and waste from thermal plants and industries are “treated” here IMO it's reasonable to presume there's significant slippage in this handling. As in the Ilmenite/Monazite sands mining (as well as every other industry elsewhere in the world) the stress is on how the slippages in mining-milling-handling cause havoc in the food chain and breaks down the local sustenance systems. The difference, they say, is that the general background radiation levels is higher in the areas surrounding the mines.

BTW, the radiation damage dimension is a bit confusing OTOH... (despite my glib comment on two-headed babies) what sort of mutations and deformities are the reports exactly talking about? I have seen pics of babies with enormous heads courtesy Endosulphan from back home but there ain't any pics of cows with scaly snouts or mongoloid children from villages close to the Uranium mines. Sure there are pics of scar tissue, lesions and emaciated villagers but those reports are rather superficial and there's a good deal of conjecture too (“mitochondrial DNA mutations”, “teratogenic effects” and “hot-spots” are common words). The reports and the pictures don't exactly present a clear correlation b/w the mining (and material handling) and these physical damages but the point about ecological/livelihood effects can't be denied IMHO. And I see the point of our tribals/marginalized rural Indians being already VERY miserable (have no medical aid and food let alone medical/municipal records) and the mines are just cutting a little bit into their meager sustenance systems. In this backdrop the NGO Industry/NPA can do a bait-and-switch trick on the “horrendous effect of Uranium mining on the indigenous people”. Hmmm.

PS: Sauravjha, I have noticed your activity in the Power Thread and the Nuke Thread; any connections to the energy industry? I was there once... :)


-Anand K

 
At 10:45 PM, Blogger saurav said...

Anand K ,
buddhimann ko Ishaara hi .. etc etc

 
At 11:15 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

DF has reached a state of sanity thanks to the efforts of Shiv and N^3 ...

there will always be jpeg jingos, but for now they are hiding and licking their wounds ... wounds that were inflicted on them by simple reasoning presented to them by Shiv and N^3 ...

the pen is still mightier than the sword ... :)

also, our work here on that aspect may be done ... I doubt that we will see "constable" and "sell-out" posts for a while ...

Cheers, all.

 
At 11:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

saurav said...
Dear anonymous,
I am sure seeing what Russia has today , you can understand what kind of energy resources the erstwhile U.S.S.R was sitting on. In addition to Russia , it had Kazakhstan etc etc.
Add to this , it also had a bread basket called the Ukraine. then using your own argument why did it collapse?

It collapsed because it did not use it's own resources effectively i.e due to economic mismanagement.
so even with all the resources in the world you can collapse.

On the other hand Circa 1998 , India had a much smaller economy and was importing over 60 per cent of its oil even then. but managed the economic impact of sanctions didn't it?


Arre Saurav Ji,

You are just reiterating what I was trying to say. Looking after a country's interests - whether the USSR or India - is not unidimensional thingy.

My problem is with folks who think that big bums and fat mizziles pointed at every degree in a 360 degree compass assures India a supar duoopar security and prosperity which will bring back glorious Indic civilization.

No one could say the USSR did not take care of their bum technology and did everything possible to enhance it. But in doing so it neglected its economy - Siberia or for the matter Ukraine did not develop cause too much money went into bum making and in building big tanks and aeroplanes etc.

India can go ahead and test 200kt, 1MT or 5MT. Or it can airdrop a bum and try it out (no kidding I've seen this suggestion on DF). But to suggest that the economic cost would be negligible... wah kya baat hai!

And you keep harping - just like the folks on DF who banned you - that 1998 sanctions were survivable so any new ones would be too.

Sure it will be survivable but at what cost? You talk about specific examples. I'll give you one just check what levels the Stock Market was (yah I know evil bania mentality of looking at stook market etc) and have a look at it today even after steep fall.

Look at the ratio of investment to GDP in 1998 and the ratio now - one reason why the country has witnessed 8+ growth despite a government which pussyfoots on reforms.

Look at how much in absolute terms India's imports and exports are in Rupees or US dollars today and what it was in 1998. And look at what percentage of the GDP it is.

Look at how much money is borrowed cheap abroad by Indian Co and how many mega acquisitions they are doing today and compare it with 1998.

All this will give you an idea how the Indian economy has become more plugged into the global economy and hence is in a position to get hurt if someone turns off the tap.

Don't want to go into more examples and make an unnecessarily long post.

So take it for what its worth.

 
At 11:32 PM, Blogger saurav said...

For all readers I'll just give a thought,

The issue is not "natural uranium" but "enriched uranium". Presently we do not have the enrichment facilities that may be used to support a LWR program.

International co-operation has to be understood in this context. The russian supply for Koodanakulam is a case in point here.

Remember, that the small CANDU derivatives that we have today aren't ideally suited to our power needs anymore . their max burn-up is about 6700 Mwd/t .

Bottom line is, the world over PWR/BWRs have been used for power generation because industry realizes that this is probably the best way to generate power from nuclear resources.

Post Chernobyl the nuclear industry in the west became moribund and no new reactor has been commissioned in the U.S in the past 20 years. total nuclear capacity has increased on account of life extension/refurbishment schemes, but no new plants were built.

The equipment big daddies of the world see India as a great opportunity . And they want to sell their wares.
Toshiba (westinghouse) has a design that they can complete in 36-42 months.
Naturally all this adds up to making the LWR route attractive to our policymakers.

Unfortunately there is an NPA lobby in the west who don't want to become unemployed. they are the prime movers behind incorporating the "no-test clauses" in the Hyde act.

The 123 agreement itself is a standard document and if we bring our Atomic energy Act in line with the deal and the issues it throws up , its doable.
Ultimately economic prudence will prevail.

 
At 11:35 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

I did, however, suppress a chuckle when I see that Sanku dude is wrapping himself in a cloak of moderation and extolling the virtues of politeness ...

LOL!

Little does he realize that he is signing a death warrant for himself when he proclaims, "judge not the past but the post" ...

or, perhaps, he is taking a dip in the Ganges so that his past can be forgotten ... :)

 
At 11:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

alok_n said...

also, our work here on that aspect may be done ... I doubt that we will see "constable" and "sell-out" posts for a while ...



Alok_n ji,

You should add to the list of adjectives, lest they get lost.

Nightsoil (referring to the PM of India) and MacMohammad Singh - though I must confess I did not catch the communal reference and its relation to the nuclear deal.

Cheers!

 
At 11:44 PM, Blogger saurav said...

"India can go ahead and test 200kt, 1MT or 5MT. Or it can airdrop a bum and try it out (no kidding I've seen this suggestion on DF). But to suggest that the economic cost would be negligible... wah kya baat hai!"
laughs. yeah that would put paid to another treaty (PTBT) , won't it?

Yup I have noted your points, but I would stillsay the cost won't be that high.

before i analyse your points , i'll just like to say look at the impulse for the deal and then understand why anything near the "worst" won't happen.

Again, this is an open ended discussion and If the arguments in favour of the "worst" seem to hold water , i would also not keep pushing the case for 'testing" . In any case as I have said earlier my concern on the deterrence side is with new generation weapons not on testing. testing whether live or otherwise(LIF etc) will of course be necessary , however precisely which one will be chosen is the question.

 
At 11:55 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

> Bottom line is, the world over PWR/BWRs have been used for power generation because industry realizes that this is probably the best way to generate power from nuclear resources.

Saurav boss, which is the cart and which is the horse here?

it is about the cost of enrichment ... since there is installed capacity in some countries due to other reasons, they can continue to make cheap enriched uranium ...

why should India do this?

if you have access to a detailed analysis that claims that LWR is economically superior to PHWR in Indian conditions, I would be happy to study it ...

however, it has been argued before that the economic reality is such that the market for enriched U is far more developed than for raw U ...

for example, the process of "enrichment" can also include "poisoning" ... Moly, IIRC, is a preferred poison ...

btw, folks, please check out world prices for Xenon ... going throught the bloody rof it is ... from $500/kg to $3500/kg in a year ... and now it is sold out until the end of 2009 ...

the number of scarcities on the planet is truly growing ... scary!

 
At 12:12 AM, Blogger saurav said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 12:14 AM, Blogger saurav said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 12:18 AM, Blogger saurav said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 12:20 AM, Blogger saurav said...

"Look at the ratio of investment to GDP in 1998 and the ratio now - one reason why the country has witnessed 8+ growth despite a government which pussyfoots on reforms."

this is also because of our domestic savings rate having increased. Of course FDI helps bridge the saving-investment gap , but again whether they actually help depends on the nature of the investment. In any case FDI is not going to be checked due to sanctions. More on this..

"Look at how much in absolute terms India's imports and exports are in Rupees or US dollars today and what it was in 1998. And look at what percentage of the GDP it is."


while it is true that exports actually account for 14 per cent of our GDP, what we need to look at is the share of exports to America and some co-sanctioners. Don't forget that any sanctions will work both ways and imports from America will also take a hit. In any case America share in total trade with us is about 8.9 per cent and this is falling steadily.

Moreover the most importantpoint to remember is that no business interest in the New world will shut itself out to the potential second largest market in the world, because some rabid NPA's pushed for sanctions.

"Look at how much money is borrowed cheap abroad by Indian Co and how many mega acquisitions they are doing today and compare it with 1998."
Yup its is true that the ECB, FCCB , private placements have become popular. But the RBI is actually discouraging this and all new applications for ECB wuill be considered on a case by case basis only.

when you look at this remember that foreign borrowing imposes a cost on us in terms of forex and that is precisely why the RBI wants this route to be only used under it's tight supervision.

Sterilization is not so easy as both China and India have found out.

 
At 12:25 AM, Blogger saurav said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 12:26 AM, Blogger saurav said...

"if you have access to a detailed analysis that claims that LWR is economically superior to PHWR in Indian conditions, I would be happy to study it"

Alok-N , I am indeed working on an analysis. Initial work suggests that it makes sense if you have a closed cycle. this is of course contrary to certain other studies that have kept pushing for a once through cycle.
In any case certain assumptions on the stochastic side make the case for reprocessing stronger.

I'll share it once I am ready.

 
At 12:30 AM, Blogger saurav said...

Alok_N to the point about PHWRS. In case enriched uranium is not forthcoming , some of our coastal sites may end up with the new 700 Mwe PHWR which is on the anvil . Nat Uranium for this may be sourced from Niger etc.

however the preference is still for PWRs at these sites. more bang for buck , 1000 plus rating etc.

 
At 2:06 AM, Blogger saurav said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 2:07 AM, Blogger saurav said...

just check the latest Newcastle coal prices. this is precisely the problem with commodity trading today.


India makes one announcement about coastal UMPPs and whoosh coal prices go through the roof. And how many mines can you acquire abroad anyway? even if you do, how do you ship the coal here , given the state that major international ports are in?

We have to start using more of our own thermal coal. that will give a different signal to futures trading.

in any case till such time our coal sector is liberalised and places like Jharia are saved

 
At 2:34 AM, Blogger saurav said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 2:46 AM, Blogger saurav said...

Finally Herr Doktor has outlined his understanding of ARF/DF. I daresay, Herr Doktor would also love to see an India where a similar kind of hierarchy is put into place.
It is now quite clear to me that Herr doktor seeks to use a net forum to essentially antagonise a section of our population who visit the net and give them the impression that being a rakshak is necessarily antithetical to being an adherent of a certain religion.

Moreover what is really worrying is the fact that herr doktor has decided to brazen it out. However how can you take somebody "seriously" when that person himself acknowledges that he is anything but neutral.

So all you self-respecting rakshaks , this is what he is essentially saying- Be my b*tch or get ready to be banned from ARF/DF. think about it.




This private forum with an agenda in the public domain is nonsense.
So all these years while DF grew , Herr doktor chose not to outline the nature of DF. he now feels that DF is reasonably big to make such utterances public. Well , if the other "club" members on DF subscribe to his excellent views , DF won't be popular for too long.

 
At 2:55 AM, Blogger saurav said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 3:34 AM, Blogger saurav said...

And by the way i do not think that the words forum and club can be used interchangeably.

 
At 3:39 AM, Blogger saurav said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 3:40 AM, Blogger saurav said...

I must also add something that Herr Doktor seems to have missed . In addition to democracy and equality ,
plurality also has no place on DF.

 
At 5:35 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bah...

My favorite BRF has an ignore poster feature. It would be nice to have one here...


Pradeep

 
At 5:45 AM, Blogger saurav said...

Dear sycophant
one can't have everything...

 
At 5:58 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Saurav,

Thank you for your reply.

 
At 5:59 AM, Blogger saurav said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 6:04 AM, Blogger saurav said...

So after Herr doktor has failed to peddle a scenario where 6-8 hiroshima type devices are enough for indian security,

Maulana Jerkyoob (henceforth known as J^3) using LMU analysis has contrived a scenario wherein his beloved Pinglish speaking biraaders have scored a victory against Namibia!

it no surprise that the "dice" would have been loaded in favour of the faithful given the predilection that the maulana has for native Pinglish speakers.

in any case DF's descent into inanities and cliques continues.And people wonder why they should be taken seriously!

 
At 6:20 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Saurav,

I think there was a gradual change in the Hon. Webmaster's view. As he has indicated his views shifted after his year long study of India's nuclear options, allegedly inspired by BK himself.

Subsequently, RaviCV emerged to provide the straw that broke the camel's back.

Dear Alok,

The book is called

"The India-Pakistan Air War of 1965"
P.V.S. Jagan Mohan and Samir Chopra

Manohar, New Delhi, India, 2005,

I got to see a few excerpts, I liked it. It is a good book, even for a lay person like me.

Anand K,

I am not saying anything about about how DAE does it but in general if someone makes a claim of radiation induced illnesses in a general population irrespective of the details - a natural question that comes to mind is that how did the general population get exposed to radioactive material.

In most cases that go before courts in India - no credible link to actual exposure can be established. Without an exposure to actually radioactive material - the scientific (as opposed to political) discussion shifts to issues like
"tailings", "accidental chemical exposure" etc...

Again here too proving that the illness in person X is due solely to an exposure from the DAE's activities as opposed to say the hundred other private companies that dump chemical waste in India without any thought to environmental guidelines is impossible.

It is possible in certain cases to trace the chemical exposure effects, but that requires a detailed medical history of the populations that being examined. There is no such history, especially among tribals where even the vaidiki, and unani schools of medicine have poor penetration. There is quite simply no record keeping there.

Add to that the behaviour of unscrupulous characters - who insist on a fee whenever a reporter asks to see the "deformed child" in village near the mine or a "scientist" who claims that she or he knows how the exposure could results in "genetic defect" (which afaik no one knows) - and you get a real loss of credibility for the people complaining.

I stress that to the best of my knowledge the DAE would like to afford as small an environmental footprint to its activities as humanly possible. The simplest evidence of this is in the fact that the DAE funds 60% of all cancer research in India. But with unscrupulous people trying to make a quick buck out for screwing marginalised populations - the DAE's task becomes quite difficult.

A simple position may be to appoint a special court to deal with this and perhaps that may aid in providing legal relief to the affected populations. However given the way the NBA people behaved after the verdict - I am not sure that will cure the problem of criminally irresponsible behaviour.

 
At 6:21 AM, Blogger maverick said...

I will post on the LWR vs PHWR issue soon.

 
At 6:21 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Certainly a discussion on LWR v/s PHWR is more productive than a discussion on gigabooms.

 
At 9:02 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

my goodness, what has come over folks in DF? ... I just saw the call for "send them to Kalapani" ... WTF?

is this how one treats folks who have dedicated their lives to India? ...

what gives the DCH type DOOs this right?

Highlighting one bad decision (about one mine) with 20/20 hindsight is analysis? ... and then attaching malice to it? ... there was a money cruunch, ok? ... if folks in 1992 knew that in 2008 India will be flush with cash and short on U, they would have made a different decision ...

Instead, the situation in 1992 was that India was flush with U and short on cash ...

which pat of this is so difficult to comprehend for folks who design Terrabooms in Excel Spreadsheets?

boss, if every Indian's decision making is scrutinized with such a magnifying glass and 20/20 hindsight, a better part of 1 billion will be headed for Kalapani ... only those too poor to have even faced a choice will be the innocent ones ...

DF had lost credibility long ago ... now, it has also lost all sense of decency ...

 
At 9:15 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

saurav, your ego has obviously been tremendouly hurt by people who do not see your innate genius...now go lick your wounds in a corner instead of weeping like sreesanth on being slapped for misbehaving.

you truly are a pathetic piece of shit and a despicable scumbag with a NPA agenda. I spit on you and your ancestors.

 
At 2:06 PM, Anonymous dilbert said...

Alok:

Re. Kalapani etc., please also note that Arun_S is now also suggesting "Communist-style reeducation camp" and/or "firing squad" for MMS and AK. And Ramana is responding in tones that are warmly approving of this sh!t.

If nothing else, this should make clear what I said before -- that(at least since the RCV implosion on the forum) Ramana has been an enthusiastic supporter of all Arun's hatred and paranoia.

 
At 8:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

[quote]
one can't have everything...
[/quote]

Just using this to make a point.

You dont have to be disagreeable and obnoxious just because you dont agree with anything.

I don't agree with a lot of things the guru's here state and inspite of the protestations and denials do think there is politics and a wee bit of personal ego involved. But then the gurus are the gurus.

rgds
Pradeep.

 
At 9:05 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

Now Hon. Webmaster is cherry picking Neelesh Misra's statements - even Neelesh admits that the mines were shut down in 1992 because of a financial crunch.

Does the Hon. Webmaster recall what the price of Oil was in 1992? Incidently it was ~ $20/barrel and by 1991 our forex was pretty much gone - recall V.P. Singh's speech? "Desh ki tijori khali hain".

After that they proceed to cherry pick Document 10. The problem is that understanding Document 10 requires skills beyond the "photoshop" level.

Sure - if we can get all of our uranium into power reactors and then somehow start the FBRs synchronously and keep develop the thorium plants running apace - we should get 150,000 GWe-yr of electricity.

The problem is getting all these things to work in sync. If we get those to work in sync - then the annual rate of growth in power production will meet the predictions in the "Calculated growth" section.

Currently demand is rising far faster than the projected growth can compensate for. Basicly there is no way to model what climate change awareness will do to the demand curve. A sudden shift can turn the "temporary shortfall" into a lasting shortage.

The rate of growth in nuclear power is simply too low in India.

In the early 90s there was no money.

In the mid 90s, the oil was too cheap and the economy wanted quick turnaround projects.

At the start of the new millenium, the Americans had decided to pay every anti-nuke to litigate against the DAE. One wonders where all this bravado was back then.

Ofcourse - I doubt Hon. Webmaster will care to remember any of this.

Very interesting comment about Kalapani and firing squad.

BTW why does he persist in using two names to post on the same thread?

Is there some logic to that I am missing?

 
At 10:13 PM, Blogger saurav said...

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At 10:22 PM, Blogger saurav said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 10:32 PM, Blogger saurav said...

This blog is an excellent place to air your views. even though the regular contributors on this blog don't agree on much , they are united in their
1. agree to disagree mode.
2. willing to hear each other out.
3. willing to take a fresh look at long held positions.
4. love for DF/ ARF/ CRF.

In case you are wondering what CRF is , it is Clique Ridden Forum.

 
At 10:41 PM, Blogger saurav said...

Hey sunil,
thanks for your reply.

The deal and testing are separate issues. it is the NPA's in the west who have have sought to link it through the Hyde act. however business interest will prevail over NPA's and this is definitely not the last time we will be offered a deal.


healthy debate in India in the non-pinglish medium on this issue is always welcome.

 
At 10:45 PM, Blogger saurav said...

Dear spitful/spiteful anonymous,
before you spit on my ancestors ,



The question that you need to answer is whether you are any of the following

1. Herr Doktor's bitch
2. LMU bunnie (henceforth known simply as LB)
3. Both
4. None of the above

In case it is no.4 then you have every right to your opinion. otherwise you don't have an opinion anyway.

Regards
Saurav Jha

 
At 10:49 PM, Blogger saurav said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 10:50 PM, Blogger saurav said...

Dear Pradeep,
under different circumstances I would have accepted your views. However in the current state of affairs, i must beg to differ.

I am now speaking in precisely the same language that was dished out to me when I first joined. I have "discovered" that it is precisely this manner of speaking that gets the goat of the "gurus" that you hold dear.

A few pseudo-intellectuals with a hate agenda do not a guru make.


Moreover if you indeed are a self-respecting individual you will not continue on BRF even after the grand revelation that herr Doktor has made about the true "structure" of BRF. Or do you choose to look the other way to these "truths"?


Just my VVHO etc.

 
At 10:51 PM, Blogger saurav said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 10:53 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

ok, DF has reversed to la la land ...

Rahul M is again posting Russi Talyerkhan crap which has been discredited before ...

sraj is again sourcing U from all these mythical countries that will do business with India over and above NSG objections ...

why doesn't sraj try to buy 1 microgram of yellowcake before he spouts off on DF?

as I used to state on DF: "most of the world's expert opinions will disappear if said experts had to confront reality rather than attempt to change reality from their armchairs" ...

 
At 10:54 PM, Blogger saurav said...

Last post for the day,
Apart from Pradeep nobody on Herr Doktor's/LMU side has bothered to post a comment non-anonymously, even to pour bile. . it just shows how scared people are of the current Junta at DF/CRF.

 
At 11:15 PM, Blogger saurav said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 11:18 PM, Blogger saurav said...

sorry, must post again.

Alok-N a chaiwallah once told me that the powers that be could source uranium from the non-NSG countries , if need be.

the chaiwallah has been proved right before.

 
At 11:18 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

arre saurav bhai,

you are understandably frustrated at a random banning act on DF ...

these things happen, man ... the point to realize it is that it is a gain, not a loss ... now you are free of the "mass think" sheep syndrome ...

of course, the jokers on DF never challenge the powers that be who have the power to "one-click" ban you ...

In my youth, I argued with bouncers in bars who unceremoniously "bounced me" ... I had this routine wherein I would pick up my pieces from the pavement, point accusing fingers, yell a lot, and then finally haul my ass over to the bar approximately 20 feet down the road ...

think of Mav Blog as the bar next door ...

what me worry? ... have curry ... :)

 
At 11:20 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

excuse me, but chaiwallah and "akalmand ishaaraa" crap are one and the same ...

post something straight up ... no need for chaiwallah reference ... Manne used to do that ... if you are Manne, fine ... otherwise, build up the credibility of your chaiwallah ...

 
At 11:56 PM, Blogger saurav said...

the chaiwallah is not somebody of any towering stature , but an industry person . can't give his name ,
but I can only say , he has kept me posted before.

Also i am from the industry so there you have it. take it for what it is worth.

 
At 12:13 AM, Blogger saurav said...

I started getting frustrated from day 1 itself when nobody seemed ready to accept a slightly different way of looking at things ,and worse pounce on you without even reading your entire post.
Having said that , I think we all should move on and quit making references to DF altogether .
I think Mav , you, Anand K, Dilbert , Pradeep (if he is interested) , me and assorted guests bring sufficient diversity to any discussion to make it worthwhile.

In fact we should work to transform this blog into a proper forum where all views and denominations are entertained.

 
At 4:38 AM, Blogger saurav said...

okay last post on DF ever.


Herr Doktor has finally acknowledged that he is a little lacking in domains such as Nuclear physics, mathematics etc etc(May I also add religion to the mix).. Then what the hell has he been doing on the Newclear thread for so long , apart from carrying out pre-meditated one click bans?

For he sure as hell , hasn't been moderating , far from it. Thus I must most humbly submit , that he has been trolling .

To all DF people out there it doesn't help , if your fart administrator himself is a troll.

 
At 4:48 AM, Blogger ray said...

Hi ,

I was reading ur blog posts and found some of them to be wow.. u write well.. Why don't you popularize it more.. ur posts on ur blog Maverick
took my particular attention as some of them are interesting topics of mine too;

BTW I help out some ex-IIMA guys who with another batch mate run www.rambhai.com where you can post links to your most loved blog-posts. Rambhai was the chaiwala at IIMA and it is a site where users can themselves share links to blog posts etc and other can find and vote on them. The best make it to the homepage!

This way you can reach out to rambhai readers some of whom could become your ardent fans.. who knows.. :)

Cheers,

 
At 5:25 AM, Anonymous Ananya said...

Mav,

I think you are preaching to the choir with me regarding the fizzle debate. there is simply not enough evidence to support whether it was a fizzle or it was not. Speculating either ways with "technical" jargon is pointless. It boils down to whom you believe, pure and simple.

Thus your argument is valid. However, I would expect the same basis for your other arguments, which is, presence of valid and solid proof. Your other statements are bizzaire and have no proof behind it, such as:

Arun_S has a personal ambition
Arun_S has sold out or is out for money
BRF is doing it because Congress and a Sonia backed government is in power
BRF is doing it because BJP is not in power

etc. etc. etc....

There is simply no solid proof to support your allegations above. IF you demand proof when others make fizzle allegations, you better have the same standard of proof for your allegations as well.

 
At 6:27 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Does this blog have to be a place where ex-DF people come and weep inconsolably? Can't the blog strike out into areas where it does not have to take inputs from DF or echo discussions there? DF is not the beginning and end of the world although people there seem to think so.

But reading the whines on here - it appears that responses here are remote controlled by people like "Hon Webmaster" or "Herr Doktor". Hon Webmaster farts or Herr Doktor takes a public crap and someone mentions it nostalgically on here.

Get a life folks. Get over DF. Stop bringing DF stuff on here There's is a whole wide free world out here outside DF. Enjoy that - don't keep sticking noses back into orifices that don't smell good.

 
At 6:42 AM, Anonymous Ananya said...

Replace Manmohan Singh for Arun_S in my post earlier and you will see that this is exactly the same type of behaviour on BRF that you rail against: name calling without proof.]

And no, I am not comparing MMS with Arun_s.

 
At 6:58 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

ananya,

your analogies are all wrong ...

fizzle is a discussion of a physical device ... evidence there is of a physical kind ...

discussion of folks is piskological ... surely, the "evidence" there is basically interpretation of utterances ...

I keep getting amused by drones from DF who take the trouble to post their wisdom of why it doesn't matter but feel that their own post matters ...

it is sort of like an existentialist who finds meaning in writing a 400 page book that is about meaninglessness ...

:)

 
At 7:00 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

4th grade trick ...

1. Call someone's words a "whine"

2. Stand back and admire yourself.

3. Convince yourself that you are witty.

my guess is that 4th graders of today call it a kindergarten trick ...

:)

 
At 7:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wish Maverick and Kg (and Suraj/Sachin level gurus in the DF) would blog regularly about development-society-economy issues.
(There are a frickin' lot of barf-worthy DCH/cool-libertarian blogs out there. Even the much touted "Deesha dot org" don't really cut it IMHO.) If you have something like SmallWarsJournal or Sepiamutiny where luminaries like these can pen their thoughts it would be real nice! That's the next best thing to a phorum-shorum business methinks. :)

-Anand K

 
At 8:25 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous @
6:27 AM

You hit the nail on the head.

c'mon people. get over DF. you would think DF is the be all and end all in this world. It aint so.

who the fig cares what happens to BRF/DF ?

Let us all get together and start our own DF -and DF walahs will come here.

-Yaan

 
At 9:43 AM, Anonymous cn said...

A thread on the land of the Pure. Long overdue.

 
At 9:44 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with AnandK,the forum format has become stale for testing and disseminating ideas.I think that's what is happening in DF...once quite fresh but now in an advanced state of decay.Its become a place to perfect your trolling and lynching skills.
A critical mass has formed outside DF desperate for a different perspective.
All this change in the air seems to coincide with the US Presidential cycle for some reason.

 
At 6:39 PM, Anonymous Rahul said...

"alok_n said...

ok, DF has reversed to la la land ...

Rahul M is again posting Russi Talyerkhan crap which has been discredited before ..."

WTF, alok, when did I post such a thing ??
show me one example !

do you post falseties out of your productive orifice at will and think that people will never check what is true ??

 
At 9:59 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

Rahul M,

Good point ... you are new to this crap ... the earlier posts were from Sanjay M ...

you can see how ne can get confused between the two "M"s ...

however, what is not confusing is the content, which is pure unadulterated crap ...

please use the orifice of your choice to counter that ... :)

Cheers.

 
At 10:12 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

hot air bags on DF are having second thoughts about the hotness of the air in their bags ... LOL

they are fighting each other but confident in their belief that their hot air has air worthiness ...

Just like Param (Tas)Veer Chakra ...

what a bunch of losers ... they don't nderstand that they are left naked with their empty gas bag analyses ...

even a kindergartner can call Shiv on his puerile attempts to understand New Clear isuues ...

dang, if he didn't have all this "repsect" any one of us could have told him to go stick his analyses up his musharraf ...

:)

 
At 10:24 PM, Blogger Avatar said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 10:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The wily old fox Ramana is loosing it too...both his marbles and the reigns of DF. Looks like he is shell shocked at the turn of events in DF. One minute he was merrily blowing his dog whistle to coordinate his attack dogs to drive off any pro deal voice, the next he is standing naked with his pack in hiding... funny how his favourite dog Sanku is no where to be seen with his juvenile arguments.
mon

 
At 10:32 PM, Blogger Avatar said...

Aah redneck -in-chief (Herr Doktor) has deigned to make a direct reference. I am truly flattered . Sir, you exceed my expectations and continue to try and rub it in.

Let me humour you a little bit more. My piskological reading of your illustrious character shows that you feel immensely powerful in your role as a web moderator. I think at your age there are better things in life to get excited about.

frankly speaking the more I think about it, the less i feel angry about your actions. In fact I am also beginning to understand your pitiable state, wherein a sense of impotence must have crept into your real life , which is why you feel the need to assume a chauvinistic role in the virtual world.

of course you are duly applauded by a set of rednecks who i am sure don't have much of a real life anyway. forget about a riot , I don't think these worthies would even last a proper argument.


nevertheless, pretending to be brave in the virtual world comes for free, doesn't it?

Anyway, i must congratulate you for carrying on with Rosenberg's legacy of muddled politicking - this time in the virtual world.

Adios Herr Doktor ,
I give you the order of the virtual jingo jackboot.

 
At 10:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

All right. I can see that this place has lost its charm. IMVHO and all that, so dont get all riled up. If folks cant handle a simple ban on a web-site (all justified imvvvvho) then I fear for their well being at how they handle life's issues in general.

Hi Mav,
Humble suggestion. Can you please get this back on track. Look forward to reading more insights into more i nteresting issues - for one whats maketh you of the new 11 or make that 40 pest-e-shaheed courtesy Unkil.

Pradeep.

 
At 10:58 PM, Blogger Saurav said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 11:56 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

pradeep,

if you feel that it is all about issues, why not get yourself banned from DF and join the merry bunch?

Your silly BS is hollow, ok?

you think that it is all nothing because you have not been banned from that hell hole ...

so, why blame us for the fact that you continue to suck up to DF Admins? ...

the issue is simple ... you are either with us or against us ... we think that DF Admins are Grade A Gaandus ... what do you think?

The answer to this will help clarify the matters for you ...

 
At 12:24 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

as it turns out, I have dealt with 20 year old undergraduates who have had a better analysis of asymmetric deterrence than is being debated on DF ...

the jokers there have two modes:

1. Shove useless crap down members' throats and pass it off as analysis.

2. Run out of useless crap and hence, proceed to ban others who claim to have new clear useful crap.

for this they enjoy great amounts of "respect" ...

take away their banning powers and see how much "respect" they get ... :)

 
At 2:17 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Alok_n, whut?

Just to be clear, I am not trying to put up a holier than thou stance. But boss,

Why would I want to get banned? Just so that I can understand how it feels like to be banned? Sorry, it will happen if it has to happen. If being me doesnt get me banned, why would I want to chnage that.

Why do you think I am sucking up to anyone? Just because I havent got myself banned so far?

And why this with us or with them?

I come to this place cause I like to read Mav's take on things - plain and simple. I dont come here for any other reason. I like BRF for what it is. I wish it didnt have its warts, but I cant wish those pimples off my face either. You are viewing it as a war of some sort. I dont.

On a lighter note -
Why bar hop with the added lingering pain from repeated landings on ones musharraf. If drinking is the aim, why not tone it down a bit and not waste time hopping bars. I will drink more, uninterrupted and in peace.

Pradeep

Got to go, you need to get some sleep and I need to grab something to eat.

 
At 5:43 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Alok_N's gems:

1. I see that Shiv is asking direct and simple questions ... but all he is getting is "akalmand to ishaaraa" ...

2. DF has reached a state of sanity thanks to the efforts of Shiv and N^3 ...

3. ...by simple reasoning presented to them by Shiv and N^3 ...


And then, it changes to...

4. even a kindergartner can call Shiv on his puerile attempts to understand New Clear isuues ...

5. any one of us could have told him to go stick his analyses up his musharraf ...


He's finally lost it, people!!!

 
At 6:08 AM, Anonymous Vladimir said...

also...

alok_n: ban me now and put me out of my misery of having to throw up on this site

jagan: Your wish has been granted

alok_n: DF Admins are Grade A Gaandus


LMAO! a classic case of sour grapes, if there was one...

PS: the previous comment was by moi

 
At 6:53 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

Pradeep,

I was just explaining the "fixation" with DF on this blog ... you asked, and I answered ...

:)

 
At 7:22 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

aah, this blog seems to have caused enough angst in DF ... it was directly linked to, an unprecedented move ... the drone attack is back also ...

dang, it is all working ... our job may be done but, OTOH, a bit more needling may reveal even more ...

 
At 7:29 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi SS and Alok N

I have seen in you in BRF for quite a while and have no doubts about your knowledge about the current affairs and for a while you guys were very productive contributors. Having said even in those days you had exhibited certain "elitist" (now very popular in American Media ;) ).

Your putting down anybody who dissents your opinion is still continuing and you have added more shrill to your tone, which is not to your caliber.

You seem to be hard pressed to score some points against DF and put it down. In that sense you are perfect specimens of Bharathia traditions. Keep it up, but I am not sure that will enhance your stature. If pundits like you squabble, I can imagine the scale of ego clashes in the establishment’s powers(of BARC/AEC). Consequently their contributions are less than optimal to the progress of our strategic interests.

You have started off as an excellent blog with a different take on the current affairs and as such you have responsibility to the readers to keep up the standards.

Remember don’t fall into this trap

"One who is undisciplined in the senses will develop attachment. Attachment leads to desire. Desire leads to anger. Anger leads to delusion. Delusion leads to false perceptions. And one who perceives the unreal cannot be aware. Such a person will fall." The Bhagavad Gita (Ch. II v. 62-63)

You attachment to prove your superior intellect is the cause of the falling standards, and don’t be deluded by “chamchas”.
Sencerely
Your well wisher.

 
At 7:47 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Ananya,

I am not saying any of those things about Hon. Webmaster.

Of these assertions:

> Arun_S has a personal ambition

If someone does things with such intensity - it is difficult to say that a sense of ambition is not at work.

That said, I am personally clueless as to what the ambition here is.

If he is attempting to leverage his apparent public support on the forum into a position where people have to tell him more about the nuclear program in India - that is simply not going to happen. It is too expensive to share any real information regarding the program with someone who is so emotionally explosive. Such people are a huge security risk, it would take all of ten seconds to compromise someone like this. Why on earth would anyone in India share nuclear data with someone like this?

If he is showcasing his ability to stir up trouble for some hidden political masters - that is also bizarre because no Indian entity - BJP, Left, Armed Forces etc... is going to appreciate the bad blood Hon. Webmaster provocative style creates.

> Arun_S has sold out or is out for money

I have never said that - that is a theory that was proposed to me by someone in India. I simply said - "I don't know" when I was asked if this was the case.

It is obvious however, whatever the motivations, the debate Hon. Webmaster has inspired - has been very destructive.

After having gone after RC with disasterous results - Hon. Webmaster is now training his guns on AK. He is blaming AK for the decisions of every PMO after 1991!

Boss this is rubbish!

And then to bolster his weird point of view, he cherry picks Neelesh Mishra's reports. What precisely are Neelesh's credentials? one time editor at AP? meeting Hon. Webmaster on an airplane?

And then he and Sanatanan have this master piece going where they bold out random parts of MRS's writings and parts of Document 10 and say something that is nowhere near what the authors intended.

For example - Who was AEC chief when these "laxities" happened? - the very MRS who wrote about them in the first place. No - but in that case - Manmohan Singh is to blame for shutting down the mine.

Okay fast forward through the entire 90s - when AK is perhaps the strongest voice pushing - to 1999 - when after the tests the BJP decides that keeping its relationship with the Americans is more important than opening up uranium resources.

So who does Hon. Webmaster blame for this? not the PMO - because that would mean ABV, LKA and his other Gods would be damaged - so out of nowhere AK is blamed.

> BRF is doing it because Congress and a Sonia backed government is in power

This is a self evident truth. Without this kind of force driving it - the sorts of comments we have seen about Soniaji and the prime minister would never have been made on the forum.

> BRF is doing it because BJP is not in power

There is a very BJP friendly faction on BRF. Most of the support for Hon. Webmaster's antics came from these people.

Dear friend, forgive me, but I am cut from an old perhaps finer grade of muslin. This is a bit much for me.

I simply do not approve of people who have made a profession out of speaking impolitely when addressing the Prime Minister of India.

 
At 7:48 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Anonymous,

The destruction caused by the Hon. Webmaster's rash behaviour on the forum has touched a raw nerve here.

That is why so many are weeping inconsolably.

 
At 7:51 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Pradeep,

Whatever the objective was - the Hon. Webmaster's style has created a huge mess.

There is simply too much debris lying around right now to simply walk away.

Given how close this is to me personally, I can't walk away until this is cleaned up.

 
At 8:06 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

Dear Gita quoting anonymous,

this is not an issue of personalities alone ... DF had launched into attacks on institutions that I respect ... they had no facts, just innuendo and "ishaaraa" ...

calling them on their BS was the right thing to do ... riling them into chaos is the right strategy ...

see how they are falling apart? ... ramana thought that N^3 was posting based on encouragement from Mav ... what does the Gita say about this behavior?

 
At 8:18 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Well Wisher,

If I or Alok N are elitist and people on BRF are upset about that - they should feel free to insult me or Alok N.

Why are they attacking RC and AK and the PMO?

What has the PMO or the DAE done to these forumites to deserve such bad behaviour?

Once the clean up is over - I will return to a more normal posting pattern.

Currently the Hon. Webmaster continues to frustrate the clean up process by repeatedly sowing personal attacks on DAE personalities.

I wish to take this time to clarify something that Hon. Webmaster may be missing altogether.

Neither the Left nor the BJP want to stall the nuclear deal in such a way that no renegotiation is possible at all.

This kind of agenda is *solely* pursued by the NPA, the Pakistanis and the Chinese.

Maybe it is my cognitive dissonance or delusion - but the Hon. Webmaster's position - with its harsh language, uncompromising stances seems a little too coherent with the positions of the NPA, the Chinese and the Pakistanis. In fact the tactics he has used are unusually similar to what the PRC-Pakistan-NPA combine use - a mix of personal insults and technical sounding rubbish.

I am choosing to draw no conclusions from the above coincidences. However people in India have long memories of even the slightest insults and I do not forsee anyone taking Hon. Webmaster to task for this kind of talk - people will remember what he did. I can't say how that memory will make them feel.

There are a number of perfectly decent reasons to not approve of the Indo-US nuclear deal.

The Hon. Webmaster's arguments in this regard do not seem like "decent" reasons to me - they are largely empty rhetoric interspersed with bizarre political positions and unsustainable claims of "technical" knowledge.

I do not wish to see the debate on this issue slide into the hands of people like Hon. Webmaster.

I do not want to see an India that is forced to worships weapons and mass murder as idols of nationalism.

India's national consciousness emphasizes a deeper sense of strength through syncretic thinking and tolerance.

The Indian national spirit is a far kinder and gentler entity than what is portrayed on the forum.

I do not want to see the atmosphere of debate be damaged by excessively bellicose types and to that end, I seek only the negation of falsehood.

If that constitutes attachment - then I welcome the delusion it brings.

 
At 10:11 AM, Anonymous Anil Kakodkar said...

alok_n is NOT me!

 
At 10:58 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello,

Now Sanatanan is randomly quoting from replies the AEC Minister gave on the floor of the house in 1995-the present.

He is trying to use those replies to try to attack AK's statements on the need for imported fuel.

The forum does not seem to understand demand and supply relationships.

There is no inconsistency between the Min. AE's statements in 1995 and DAE's present stance.

The natural uranium being made in the 90s was sufficient for the amount of power we were generating then.

It is not sufficient for meeting the needs of India now or in the future.

Today the demand for nuclear power is rising due to two factors - the rising oil price and increasing concerns about carbon emissions caps.

If DAE is to provide solutions for our power needs - it has to be able to meet the demand in a timely fashion. To do that we need Uranium *NOW* - not in ten years from now.

People who are posting about this issue on the forum seem to suffer from a perilous lack of grip on economic realities and the exploding demand for energy inside India.

They do not grasp how delicately the power production infrastructure is linked to imported oil supplies and how the infrastructure costs for TPPs are *only* now reaching a point where setting up a NPP less than 1000 km from a coal field is becoming imaginable! That is why WB will eventually get a nuclear power plant if Uranium imports can be arranged.

Curious how they blame Manmohan Singh for shutting down mines in 1992 but when it comes times to blame ABV or LKA for not standing up to the US and jailing all those so called anti-nuke people back in 1999 - suddenly the blame is neatly transferred to AK's head!
How convenient!

 
At 11:11 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear All,

I know who Alok N is and that is enough for me.

I don't need people here guessing who he is.

And I don't need Mani Tripathi - whoever that is - asking me why people are mistaking him for someone posting as Alok N.

Note that I have only left one post on this matter remain because it says something relevant and I have deleted all the rest.

I noticed that someone signing in as Ravi CV. If this is the real Ravi CV, and please answer the following questions:

Why you have done this?

What have you told the Hon. Webmaster to get him to go over the top like that?

What was the point of using him like that?

 
At 8:51 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

looks like I missed a lot of fun ...

RCV made an appearance! ... folks made guesses about my identity ... Anil K denied something ... some poor schmuck called Mani Tripathi got dragged into all this ... WOW!

arre bhai log, Alok_N is just a figment of your imagination ... this person does not exist ... why waste time?

ok, I'll give you a hint ...

"Alok_N" is the front for a super-secret Indian equivalent of a Carlyle group or Trilateral Commission or Council for FOreign Affairs or Rothschild Banking etc etc ...

it stands for this:

Akhand Langoti Operation Kapada _ NewClearOnlee

our goal is to provide a counter to Dhoti-wallahs ... we bring forward the Langoti-wallah POV ...

looks like the DF drones are going to now attack all Langoti wearers in India ... LOL.

 
At 8:56 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

DF is really worked up ... N^3 is giving them the sharminda treatment ...

arre bhai DF-wallahs ... thoda to sharam karo ... from your lofty goals of "Rakshaking India" you are reduced to sending drones to blogs ...

LOL ... how the "mighty" have fallen ...

btw, this Mani Tripathi guy looks cool ... does he post anywhere where I can read his views?

 
At 9:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This guessing game can be fun. I have very good guesses for the identity of Ramana, Calvin, Arun and many more. One of them works for a US defense firm that makes weapons that may be used to kill Indians some day. Another one works for an oil conglomerate that is screwing India. Which one is which? Lot of fun ahead. Keep guessing.

 
At 10:13 PM, Anonymous vladimir said...

>Which one is which? Lot of fun ahead. Keep guessing.

I am sorry and I apologize for starting this line of posts. Let us forget all of this please. Thank you.

 
At 10:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The forum is readying a new model drone for launch. It is called paramu.

 
At 12:09 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wonder how those certain belligerent members and assorted buddhimans from the DF (and there are a LOT of them) behave when they interact with Muslims/Christians in their daily lives. I wonder if their colleagues and bosses, who might be from these yeevil "Semitic-Barbarian Tribal Systems" and prolly invited them into their homes for tea or dinner, ever had a hint of this other face of these folks.
Just a li'l queschion after seeing the curious damage-control efforts when things started to hit a little close to home.

Oh well, it's a slow day and Carlos Sanatanan & his merry band is giving me a brainache with their funkadelic, psychedelic compositions. Jin-Go-Lo-Ba indeed. ;)

-Anand K

 
At 5:01 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

> I am sorry and I apologize for starting this line of posts.

Too late mister. Do you think Arun works for a missile making firm in the US?

 
At 5:12 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

I see more evidence of cart-before-horse economics on the forum.

Sure the high price of Uranium and Oil can *now* improve profitability of Uranium mining in India.

But that is *now* not in 1992.

Also what is the demand now? How do you estimate projected demand if you are expecting oil to do weird things?

Will you be able to arbitrarily ramp up production of uranium to meet needs that will arise from oil price rises?

Think of the timescales - oil prices can rise on a scale of months - it takes years to change the amount of Uranium being produced.

This is beyond "temporary" shortfall - we are in the "temporary" shortfall region right now. This is about sustained shortages due to a mismatch between demand and supply of domestic uranium for power production.

I have said this a hundred times on this blog - the price of all electricity in India is set by the price of the diesel required to transport coal to the TPPs. If the price of diesel fluctuates - we will see correlations in the amounts of electricity put on the grid by TPPs.

Unless this shortfall can be made up by the NPPs there are going to be severe growth problems. Don't tell me about Hydel, Solar and Wind - none of those things can actually be implemented on any relevant timescales. None of those can produce the amounts of electricity when we need it - it has to be NPPs - NPPs with enough uranium in stock.

A simple way to make up this shortfall is to have a local reserve of imported natural uranium.

Instead of spending time on nonsensical remarks like Kalapani and firing squad - a little learning and thinking would help.

 
At 5:18 AM, Blogger maverick said...

I think the time has come for RaviCV to answer the questions I have asked.

 
At 5:40 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

Why is Cohen's comment about a deal for Pakistan so surprising?

I have said this before - if the Pakistanis sort out the A Q Khan thing to everyone's satisfaction - they will get a deal too.

I mean if the Zardari or Sharif can hand A Q Khan over to the IAEA or the Americans, then they will get a nuclear deal.

 
At 5:44 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

> Yes, he used to post as Alok_N at BRF and got kicked out.

Your gigaboom was a fizzle. Now, what else do you have?zlxj

 
At 6:30 AM, Anonymous Vladimir said...

Vladimir said... Which one is which? Lot of fun ahead. Keep guessing.

I am sorry and I apologize for starting this line of posts. Let us forget all of this please. Thank you.


FYI... That isn't me. Someone else is osting under the same handle. And I did not start this line of posts.

 
At 8:46 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

"Your gigaboom was a fizzle"

LOL ... exactly! ... what else do you expect from DF drones spreading unverifiable misinformation? ... they are the pros!

where is RCV then? ... if he has resurfaced he should be able to post here even if he has to be anonymous ...

meanwhile, the rakshaks are creating fusion in buckey-balls ... groan ... I am too tired to comment ...

 
At 1:38 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello,

Please stop the guessing game.

I know what Alok N, Calvin, Ramana and Hon. Webmaster do for a living and it is not relevant to the discussion.

I feel it is perfectly acceptable to discuss their actions as administrators of the website, but beyond that their personal details are not germane to the discussion here.

It seems one of Hon. Webmaster's misguided supporters went about trying to guess Alok N's identity but I am asking everyone to please stop this now.

This confirms my view that Hon. Webmaster surrounds himself with very excitable people who do more harm than good.

To Hon. Webmaster's friends here - guys - Hon. Webmaster is in a difficult place right now - I am sure you would like to help - that is what friends are for.

But you need to think very carefully about what you do - because what you do may not actually help him.

Put bluntly - the moment Hon. Webmaster lunged at the DAE and the PMO on RaviCV's signal - this entire matter went out of your league. Sure you got excited and you jumped in beside your friend - and that is a good thing - but boys believe me - you want no part in where this is now.

Now just calm down and go back to your day jobs.

Let the people who know what they are doing handle this.

Again - someone posted as the RaviCV - if this is the real RaviCV, he should please answer my questions:

1) Why did you do this?

2) What exactly did you tell the Hon. Webmaster to cause him to go over the edge like that?

3) What was the point of using him to do your dirty work?

 
At 9:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mav,
From what you are saying it seems what is said on BRF is taken seriously by the GoI. For example, you are saying that Arun_S is in trouble because of his anti DAE and anti GoI utterances.

Is that really true? I find it hard to believe that BRF would have that kind of impact.

Thanks

 
At 5:42 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Anonymous,

I cannot say anything about what GoI does or does not do. It is not my place to say such things.

That said -

I doubt anyone takes everything on the forum seriously.

I am only pointing out that what you take "not seriously" may actually be something that GoI takes very seriously .

Using the forum to launch a direct attack on the deterrent, is not something that can be ignored by anyone - much less GoI.

This is behaviour akin to Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale - you simply can't sit inside the Akal Takht in a country where so many Sikhs are in the army and call for secession from India!

I really doubt people are going to look the other way when something like that happens. You talk like this and people will notice.

There is no way to predict what the GoI will think about this.

Given how random people like the Hon. Webmaster are dreaming of becoming pressure points on critical decisions like nuclear weapons related policy - I wonder why some other equally random person who may have a real grudge against the Hon. Webmaster - might not consider pressuring GoI to act against the Hon. Webmaster. I doubt the GoI will think as hard about something like that - than say nuclear issues.

Given how competitive this defence reporting business is in India - and given the fact that the forum has been used repeatedly to publicly insult several major Indian defence journalists and publications. Given how many times you step on someone's toes - just in the routine admin work or how often you step on another admin's toes/balls (oh say to protect your friend on the forum)

- is it that hard for people to hold a grudge against you?

- will such people sit and confront you on the forum where you have power - or will they strike where you are powerless?

This is what I mean when I say the Hon. Webmaster's position is precarious. Whatever he is trying to do - he is in a very difficult place and the friends of the Hon. Webmaster aren't really helping by using a hyper-confrontationalist style.

The Hon. Webmaster has surrounded himself - wittingly or unwittingly - with people who simply want to seek out a reason to say "my government / prime minister betrayed me and failed India". These people are idiots - they will dredge out random personal details about people and spit them on some public forum. When doing this Hon. Webmaster's "helpers" seem to ignore that they and their idols can be subject to the same treatment and quite frankly I doubt any of them will be able to stand the same level of exposure or scrutiny. Its all good and fine to talk about who Alok is, etc... but can they stand public scrutiny of themselves - or do they believe that posting as "anonymous" is really that big against damaging exposure?

I feel that Hon. Webmaster did not think this part of it through when he lunged at the DAE and the PMO's throat. And I feel Hon. Webmaster has surrounded himself with people who share his propensity to act without to the consequences.

This is adding to the precariousness of his position.

 
At 6:24 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh, from threatening the "Hon Webmaster" to threatening the entire DF, that's a new low even for you maverick.

 
At 6:48 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It is not a low at all. What is wrong in pointing out that those who like to play this game of calling others traitors and indulging in personal attacks better be prepared that the same is being prepared upon them.

 
At 9:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What does this blog aspires to achieve ?

From whatever I have read on this blog it seems that it's main mandate is to do a postmortem on whatever is posted on BRF.

Now while Maverick talks about humility and addressing PMO and GOI with respect , why not observe it first here on this blog and ensure that all the arguments be stripped of the personal remarks.

Yes some of the posts on BRF might not be technically correct , but then it is a open forum with more than 100-200 postors online everyday. To expect everyone of them is a nuclear physcist and get his calculations right is unrealistic.


Look at this bolg itslef... while at first you had only Alok_N, Maverick and Kgoan posting now there are so many anonymous posts.

Now I can also dig for semantics and try to point out errors in posts here but that does not mean I paint everyone with the same brush and label everyone with a offensive name.

I see that people running this blog do have some serious difference ofopinion with some people on BRF, I have no issues with that . My only question is why is the complete forum being victimized for that ?


-Naveen Negi

 
At 9:27 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Naveen Negi,

If you don't know the history of all this forget it and don't try to understand. There is a lot of background and people with issues. Some issues are out in the open and some prefer to stay anonymous. But IMO this is just the beginning.

 
At 10:24 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

cross-posting from the earlier thread ...

Sanjay, on this blog the latest thread is the only active one ... you asked:

> It is trite knowledge that the PHWRs can be used for weapons grade PU production but the question is are they ?

trite or not, it is correct ... whether they are or are not is for you to ask and not get an answer ...

however, you may wish to wonder why they always produce less power than their rating ...

recently, they are running at even lower power ... could this be U shortage or something else? ... perhaps, an end run to stock up Poo before ShauryaT signs FMCT?

 
At 10:27 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

> Some issues are out in the open and some prefer to stay anonymous. But IMO this is just the beginning.

why is this not surprising? ... darpok anonymous must be proud ...

 
At 11:37 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Anonymous,

Let me list my problems with Hon. Webmaster:

1) He accepted RaviCV's information without adequate verification - specifically the Baldev Raj, and S.V. Lawande that reference RaviCV made was never checked out.

2) He inspired a public debate that pushed into a place - weapons design issues - where DAE cannot respond due to proliferation concerns.

3) His debating style insulted the Prime Minister of India and the DAE leadership - which is unacceptable to me.

4) He fostered an atmosphere on the forum that is steadily becoming more and more hostile to the Govt. of India. This can only lead to a rang de basanti type mess.

I don't need threats to get my points across.

In case you haven't realised - I don't make threats.

I call it as I see it - if *it* makes you feel threatened - you have a problem with *it* - not me.

You obviously have no idea what kinds of enemies that Hon. Webmaster has made in past. As a formed Admin and someone with an ear to the ground - I do.

At the present time - by putting everything on the line for some unverifiable rubbish that Ravi CV said - has exposed Hon. Webmaster to all sorts of things.

Not everyone is going to believe you are a patriotic person simply because you maintain a positive sounding webpage about the Agni.

People are bound to read all sorts of things into your actions. A lot of times, your perception of yourself will be at variance with that of others.

For example:

You may think you are a great patriot - others may think that you are Hindu religious fanatic who targets Muslims and Christians.

You may think that you are someone with exclusive access to information and others will consider you a plagiarist.

You may think that you are doing something to help India - others may simply see a traitor.

The problems that I am stating here are fairly general and applies equally well to the various hyperactive people that surround the Hon. Webmaster.

I am saying that the shoe can fit equally well on the other foot.

As has been demonstrated here with the game of guessing identities - the antics of the hyperactivists can easily backfire on the Hon. Webmaster.

Do I know for a fact that GoI intends to break Hon. Webmaster's knees for this transgression? NO I DO NOT.

Do I know that there are people out there who would love to see Hon. Webmaster's knees broken by GoI? YES I DO.

I think he is in enough trouble already with his peculiar behaviour - He doesn't need the well-intentioned friends making matters worse.

 
At 12:04 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Naveen Negi,

The point of this blog to give me feedback on my views.

The point of this blog is not to foster enemity towards the forum or its participants or Admin.

Though this blog is largely frequented by members of the defunct BRM/SRR team - the "research" types as they were sometimes internally called - and the "disreputables" as they were once publicly known - the blog has no ties to the forum or the website itself.

This is just a quiet place for old hands to gather and pass time.

However at the present time the atmosphere on the forum has degraded to a point where a lot of people - all the old hands - are leaving. This blog has naturally become a place for them to tell everyone why they are leaving.

If by virtue of this free expression - things change on the forum - specifically this excessive worship of militaristic visions of India recedes and gives way to a form of debate that is more in sync with the kinder, gentler spirit of India's nationalism - then I imagine the complaints here would stop.

Let me be even more specific - there are a lot "technical" sounding discussions on the forum and most of them are utter crap. However the impression one gets from reading them is that desis in the US - students, doo, etc... are secretly learning ways to make bigger and deadlier weapons. This by itself is not very worrisome because the US already has most of those weapons made - thanks to the manner in which it harvests India's intellectual property and because most of India's angst is directed at Pakistan. However when the same people who talk about weapons like this - also talk about "360 degree deterrence", "Big stick Agni" and "gigabooms" - the picture this presents changes completely. It strongly suggests that Indian in the US - students, doo, whatever - are now secretly acquiring knowledge to build WMD that target the US.

I don't know about you - but this *REALLY* harms India's image. Firstly - it completely contradicts the reality as conveyed by frmr MEA Jaswant Singh to the USG - that India does not intend to target the US with its WMD. Secondly, as most of these people are let into the US on the assumption that they are not doing anything to put the US national security in peril - it casts a pall of suspicion over every H1 and F1 application that the US screens.

I am a little stunned that neither Hon. Webmaster nor others in his fold have picked up on this fact. I mean for fucks' sake - Enqyoob has been openly hammering away at it for two weeks now. Yesterday - JE Menon came out and openly hinted to it.

So with that in the background is it *that* surprising that there is so much unease among forumites?

I don't think anyone here (please correct me if I am wrong) argues against the use of force in resolving conflicts - the only arguments here are against constantly harping on coercion as a means of state policy.

This is not how things are done in India. You don't have to take my word for it - just listen *carefully* to what people like Ajai Sahni, B. Raman, Gen. Afsir Karim and so on have to say. Take of political blinders and take off the "I'll-fix-everything-with-a-hammer" blinders that cover the eyes and immediately a deeper sense of understanding will overcome you.

Right now - things are completely fucked on the forum.

There was a sense of intelligence, a sense of compassion that pervaded discussions in the forum environment and that is steadily being lost and the forum is turning to increasingly risk prone behaviour.

 
At 4:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

> why is this not surprising? ... darpok anonymous must be proud ...

Does he get all the credit for scaring off ramana from the forum?

 
At 5:23 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

sanjay said: "Could be either - U shortage ought not to produce such a shortfall at least not that badly.

Leonard Spector had (in the 1990s) speculated that the NAPP and MAPP reactors were being continuously fueled to produce weapons grade pu with low Pu-240 content. Is this realistic ? Feasible yes, but realistic ?

Then of course reactor grade Pu has been used for N-tests before. Is it a realistic option for India and if so how are pre-detonation problems overcome ?"


actually feasible and realistic are one and the same thing in this context ...

as I have said before, without knowing the details of a design it does not make sense to discuss issues such as "pre-detonation" ...

what does that really mean? ... how many folks on DF or anywhere else on the internet have actually done a calculation to conclude that there is a problem called "pre-detonation" ...

my guess is that everyone is drinking from the same source of pdfs ... it maybe Curry Cutlet maybe not ...

but folks, we are grown ups after all ... at least I assume so ... how many decisions do you make in your life based on what you read in a downloaded pdf from a single source with no cross check?

why is nuke stuff (actually, especially the nuke stuff) any different?

the NPA have succeeded in making intelligent folks buy into their crap ...

----------------------------

on DF I once remarked that a vacuum explosion in Pindi sheds more light on the dark side of the moon than SaiK does on the nuke thread ...

his latest post with Titanium Balls in space makes me proud ... LOL! :)

 
At 5:38 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

the low PLF's are on account of a mismatch in the demand and supply chain , pure and simple. Once Turamdih and Bandhuhurang get integrated into the fuel loop , this low PLF business will disappear.

 
At 9:09 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

oh by the way , eve if we become an international destination for outsourced reprocessing , whose responsibility will be the actinides that will be left over?

 
At 6:58 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Ducking For Cover,

A shortfall can develop as long as we build reactors without assured fuel supplies over their lifetime.

Post 1974 - all our lifetime supply assurances evaporated. Since then we have lived from shipment to shipment and each delay in fuel shipment has resulted in lowered PLFs for existing reactors. In this fashion the international nuclear cartel has artificially slowed the growth of India's nuclear industry.

Despite all these technology and fuel denial efforts by the cartel, we are now at a place where we master the technology to build reactors of our choosing.

At this point if we are thinking about about substantially increasing generation from nuclear sources - for example to reduce the burden imposed by diesel prices on coal based generation - then we are going to have lifetime supplies of fuel for any new reactors we will build.

To this end we have to negotiate with the international cartel and its leader - i.e. the US.

Because we are principally dealing with the US and because the US is still firmly set on Carter era anti-reprocessing views - your question about storage of reprocessing byproducts is premature.

In a perfect world where the US loses its anti-reprocessing mindset and accepts India's position about the closed fuel cycles - I feel the amount of highly radioactive byproduct would reduce considerably and a variety of options for storage of the relatively small amounts of waste could be examined.

 
At 1:08 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

hey Mav,
the U.S has moved beyond its traditional position on reprocessing. case in point is the SSTAR program

https://www.llnl.gov/str/JulAug04/Smith.html

Here is what a position statement released by the American Nuclear society said in 2005,
"believes that the development and deployment of advanced nuclear reactors based on fast-neutron fission technology is important to the sustainability, reliability and security of the world's long-term energy supply." This will enable "extending by a hundred-fold the amount of energy extracted from the same amount of mined uranium". The statement further envisages on-site reprocessing of used fuel from fast reactors and says that "virtually all long-lived heavy elements are eliminated during fast reactor operation, leaving a small amount of fission product waste which requires assured isolation from the environment for less than 500 years."

In any case the U.S continues to possess three military reprocessing facilities which can be converted to civil use , if need be.


The denial regime hurt India on the LEU front. On the flip side MOX research India rose to new heights just to keep TAPP 1 & 2 running.

The U.S now understands the need to reprocess . I think the 2003 MIT study changed a lot of mindsets.

Remember GNEP,
http://www.wmdinsights.com/I23/I23_G2_GlobalNuclearEnergy.htm

 
At 1:09 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

India will be part of GNEP only as a supplier nation and not as a recipient.

 
At 1:18 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

i'll be doing a piece on reprocessing soon.

 
At 2:09 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Ducking For Cover,

I recall Karan Thapar, a famous Indian journalist, ritually clubbing the Indian foreign minister, Sri. Pranab Mukherjee on the reprocessing issue on a TV show.

Karan Thapar went to great lengths to inform the MEA minister that the US's non-proliferation worldview looks down upon reprocessing in the places like India.

In the face of Karan's well choreographed and militarily precise attack - the poor MEA minister, after all just a man of humble beginnings from West Bengal, seemed a rather frail figure.

With a high pitched sneer and a condescending tone - Karan, dressed in his well cut suit and tie managed to put the kurta and dhoti clad Minister in a spot. He basically humiliated the cabinet minister on a national tv channel - openly suggesting that the Minister had no clue what the US's true policies were with regards to reprocessing.

Karan's attack spawned a series of copy cat attacks on the MEA minister on various fora.

In some circles Karan Thapar is regarded as the voice of the US Ambassador in New Delhi. Some people even say that he is as close to the US Ambassador as Brahma Chellany, lately a noted Indian "defence expert" was on the night of Operation Bluestar in 1984.

I don't know if this is true, but whenever any Indian journalist has talked to someone in a position of authority in the US regarding reprocessing - the Americans seem to gently shake their heads.

I have always interpreted this as a desire on the part of the Americans to ensure that no one besides them has exclusive control over IP related to reprocessing.

It may be that there is a shift in the upper echelons of US policymaking - however we have yet to see anything to this effect on the Indian end.

As you know the spent fuel from TAPS has been sitting in a compound there for a long time now. Unless the US lifts its ban on India reprocessing that stuff, it is difficult to imagine how anyone in India will take suggestions of a shift in US policymaking over reprocessing seriously.

So with that in mind, I am not sure if there is any point in talking about storage of reprocessing byproducts.

 
At 2:17 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 2:22 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 2:24 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Hey Mav,
but the by-products are the crux of the matter . everybody wants power but nobody wants HLW.

Yup fuel from tarapur is sitting here and it is a national "resource" ( he he ) considering the fact that the U.S reneged on the treaty that facilitated tarapur.


In fact this whole right of return issue was overblown . if indeed that was the case, India would be more than happy to return "used" equipment to the source of origin.

 
At 3:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mav,

Could you please post the video link to Karan Thapar's interview?

In my opinion, he bats for the US.

 
At 8:21 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

ducking for cover,

last I heard GNEP was on its way out ... DOE severely cut its funding ... I still see ACFI monies being made available but they are aimed at more generic stuff ...

 
At 9:49 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Alok, Be that as it may , the U.S has clearly moved beyond the Carter era mindset. Point is, GNEP will not be the last word on a new reprocessing "framework" . the U.S knows that Uranium resources have to be extended as much as possible and that definitely requires fast breeders and reprocessing.

what GNEP et al will seek to do is create a cartel in the world of reprocessed fuel .

Now if such a cartel is indeed put into place , India better join as a supplier nation.

 
At 10:48 PM, Anonymous alok_n said...

"Be that as it may , the U.S has clearly moved beyond the Carter era mindset."

you writing the NPA obituary already? ... be careful, the beast has 9 lives ...

if "better sense" were a sufficient criterion, there would not have been any NPA to begin with ... IMO, the problem that they face is that the poison pills are not going to work as advertised ... hence, the khujli ...

another problem is that the Russians are balking ... when oil was cheap, they saw value in GNEP cooperation ... now, they are busy minting money ...

btw, the entire issue of waste, IMO, is highly blown out of proportion ... in India there must be about 100 issues in public health that are more worrisome than nuke waste ...

just dig a hole in pokharan and have curry ...

 
At 11:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

>>>>> India will be part of GNEP only as a supplier nation and not as a recipient. <<<<<<

This assessmsnt may not be correct.

According to the report in The Hindu:

>>>
Indeed, at the press conference where the GNEP was unveiled, a senior DoE official said that "once India has met the non-proliferation commitments that it has made and that were memorialised in the joint statement between our two heads of state last summer... we would contemplate in the future that ... they would be a great candidate for participation as well."

Which is why President Bush's reference — in his Asia Society speech — to Indian participation in the GNEP as a recipient rather than a supplier state took New Delhi by surprise. With one stroke of the pen, the U.S. President relegated India from the ranks of "leading countries with advanced nuclear technology" — the words used in the July 2005 agreement — to those who only had a "developing civilian nuclear energy program."

<<<

And here is the reference from the Whitehouse web site:

>>>
My administration has announced a new proposal called the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership. Under this partnership, America will work with nations that have advanced civilian nuclear energy programs -- such as Great Britain, France, Japan, and Russia -- to share nuclear fuel with nations like India that are developing civilian nuclear energy programs. The supplier nations will collect the spent nuclear fuel. And the supplier nations will invest in new methods to reprocess the spent nuclear fuel so that it can be used for advanced new reactors. The strategy will allow countries like India to produce more electricity from nuclear power, it will enable countries like India to rely less on fossil fuels, it will decrease the amount of nuclear waste that needs to be stored and reduce the risk of nuclear proliferation.

To benefit from this initiative, India first needs to bring its civilian energy programs under the same international safeguards that govern nuclear power programs in other countries. And India and the United States took a bold step forward last summer when we agreed to a civil nuclear initiative that will provide India access to civilian nuclear technology, and bring its civilian programs under the safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

<<<

Please note that India does not find a place in the list "Great Britain, France, Japan, and Russia"

 
At 11:52 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 11:59 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 3:34 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

...

 
At 3:36 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Dear anonymous,
yep , India doesn't find mention as one of the "dignitaries" but that is the U.S viewpoint. India is not going to accept secondary status here. DAE would never stand for it. The NPT could not be foisted upon us and neither will any GNEP do the trick.

Hey Alok,
the Russis and the Amrikis will stay in bed , either under megaboom to megawatts or a GNEP successor.
In the world of nuclear power , it does not really matter if an issue isn't as "dangerous" as it is made out to be. what matters is public perception , which why you must make your efforts in waste management more visible and meaty.


As far as the NPA's are concerned, they are part of a larger U.S strategy. of course, they are a lobby and have their own utility maximization to worry about, but they have served their purpose for America.
Nation states use blow hot blow cold strategies and that is why you need hawks as well as peaceniks. however when one side finds that its becoming a little redundant they try to increase their nuisance value to their master after which a recalibration starts.
the NPA's will continue but under the auspices of GNEP type programs and they may start needling people other than India.

 
At 6:36 AM, Anonymous alok_n said...

In the world of nuclear power , it does not really matter if an issue isn't as "dangerous" as it is made out to be. what matters is public perception , which why you must make your efforts in waste management more visible and meaty."

Saurav,

public perception is true in every sphere ... watch public "cncern" in the US change as gas climbs above $5/gallon ...

surely you are aware that even Greenpeace now recommends nuke power os "green" power ...

so, what does RamBharose think about nuke waste versus electricity supply?

 
At 7:46 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 7:49 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Yup, climate change issues are making some environmentalists "warm" up to Nuclear power.

what you say is true , the ram bharose's of the world will generally vote with their feet, however assorted guests at places like Jaduguda , Domiasat etc won't. I am of course referring to the bleeding heart self-styled liberals of the world who have an uncanny knack of showing up at hitherto unknown places. And suddenly become spokepersons for people like ram bharose etc.

Add to these our leftist friends in the media and you have a heady mix. Soon enough the "admonition" of a UFO cross pollinated Nazi Sarkar begins and inane TV discussions ensue.

 
At 8:06 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Anonymous,

I am sorry I do not have a link to the interview. It was a few months ago.

 
At 8:15 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Ducking For Cover,

It seems difficult for me to discuss the HLW issue without a more detailed idea what the waste will be.

The HLW will depend on what precise reprocessing scheme the US wants to allow India to do with it's imported fuel.

That is why I think this issue is premature.

In India usually the idea of reprocessing centers around recovering rgPu from spent fuel rods and then fabricating MOX fuel rods from it.

In the US - they tend to talk about recycling wgPu from warheads.

Unless the US can clarify what it wants from India in this arena it is difficult to talk about waste.

There are many schemes for waste immobilisation and treatment.
The cheapest option would be to sequester it in India at a heavily monitored location. Sure, there is a local pollution issue but then if the Americans want us to ship HLW back on the high seas - that is going to raise costs.

I was under the impression that the right of return is something that relates to them taking it back from India if India does something the US doesn't like. I never understood the practical aspects of it but I always assumed that the Americans knew what they were talking about and even if they weren't able to recover the machinery/fuel they would undertake some madcap scheme to immobilise it in India.

Please correct me if I am wrong.

 
At 8:23 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

Getting through to Americans on the need to reprocess wg fissile material into reactor fuels is something I have had enormous problems with.

The problem is that the NP ideology is rooted in a fear that someone will do to them - what they did to the Japanese at Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Over the last fifty years - NP Prophets were able to convince every American that matters - that the key to preventing this was absolute control over fissile material and enrichment/ reprocessing technology.

An energy crunch in the US is changing attitudes but I would caution against expecting too much out of it on the reprocessing front just yet. Though I confess I have been staring rather longingly at CSPAN type sources in the hope of catching the first glimpses of a real shift in attitudes about this.

Unless a case can be made to the effect that by obstructing reprocessing (and consequently) forcing reliance on carbon fuels the US is creating the precise circumstances leading to a Hiroshima or Nagasaki type event on US soil - it will be difficult to really get people to move away from this attitude towards reprocessing.

I think the statement by Nunn et al. regarding a move away from "massive retaliation" in the nuclear context is the first sign of real change. I don't know if this process of change will go the distance in meeting India's needs.

I really need to see more before I am convinced of that.

 
At 8:28 AM, Blogger maverick said...

It is impossible to evaluate the environmental impact or make claims of severity of local pollution without a discussion what precisely the waste will be.

A discussion on this is imo premature.

Saurav,

Can you please share some ideas you have on the use of LWR vs PHWR in the context of the closed fuel cycle?

I know you have said you are still working on this - can you please give us a teaser?

Thank you.

 
At 8:36 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Also, I feel safety factors - i.e. reduced storage time for HLW - can be a factor to consider when choosing the various strands in the closed fuel cycle.

I am going to state my naive opinion here - but IMHVO - nuclear reactor engineering has not been practiced thus far with an emphasis on reduced production of HLW.

During the Cold war - all nuclear engineering was based on increased power throughput to gain a performance edge. No one cared about waste - the result is that impossible mess at places like Hanford.

Towards the end of the Cold War, everything was driven by NPA agenda - secure the fuel - make it proliferation resistant - even if it means increasing HLW content.

Outside of India, no one has really thought about this issue.

Once other people get in on the action - I imagine more solutions will emerge on this issue and the problem of HLW storage will recede.

Let me go one step further - storing a few hundred tons HLW for 500 years is way easier than storing gigatons of CO2 over the same timescales.

 
At 8:31 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 4:52 PM, Blogger Al said...

The rate of increase in the amount of energy production over time is the highest for nuclear energy, and since the energy problem needs to be resolved when the youthful citizens can be most productive. The energy ramp up has to sync up with the point were the energy requirements of the populace is in sync with the energy that can be produced, and if energy is abundant, the cost per unit.

Considering pirates in the IOR and so on, it appears that the difficulty of keep sea lanes (or air lanes or land lanes) open in the face of security threats for a period of time is higher when the energy produced per unit mass of fuel is lower. Disruption of energy supply has a drastic effect on the economy, like an act of war.

The amount of time required to transport X years worth of fuel means that the transportation routes need to be kept open for the duration. It follows that it is a lot harder to blockade a country energy-wise if it runs on nuclear fuel (with sufficient reserves) than it is to blockade a country that runs on carbon-based fuels via a pipeline on sea or land.

JMT

 
At 5:06 PM, Blogger Al said...

DFC, Nice article, BTW. Was unable to read it until now because of my crappy linux web browser (Deccan Herald requires a javascript-enabled browser).

 
At 5:12 PM, Blogger Al said...

India must make sure that it is able to acquire sufficient fuel for a century (in terms of 3 stages), assuming all the technology in processing waste works out.

 
At 5:15 PM, Blogger Al said...

Thinking some more, it should be for a century + X years, where X is the worst-case estimate for the DAE to figure out the tech required to process waste.

 
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