Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Was DPRK 6 a two-stage TN device?

As I indicated earlier I believe that for policy purposes one should treat DPRK's thermonuclear ambitions as a reality but at the technical level it is vital to go on asking questions.

At the present time, we only have seismic signatures of the DPRK 6 event. The RC data from air sampling has not been made public. Given the proliferation sensitivity of the isotope ratios, generally people don't make that information public.

So quite understandably there is a lot of back and forth about OS information that would conclusively point to DPRK6 being a two stage TN device.

A lot of people feel that DPRK could not have developed a device of this complexity so quickly. That sounds reasonable until you see that the DPRK timescale is quite comparable to others who pursued a very accelerated and aggressive development cycle.

Rough estimates of DPRK U-235 and Pu-239 stockpiles are available. There is a section in there about how DPRK might produce Tritium, but there are no numbers that we can take from that.  There is also a suggestion that irradiation of Lithium targets is possible in DPRK reactors, so the only thing that could limit DPRK's ability to make LiD (the fuel used in modern two stage TN devices) is the availability of Deuterium.

There does not appear to be any public discussion on where DPRK might get its hands on Deuterium. From public records DPRK does not appear to have any heavy water moderated reactors. There do not appear to be plants inside DPRK that produce heavy water. There is no public evidence of DPRK importing heavy water from any known sources.

If some public domain information should emerge that DPRK was able to successfully source D2O (Heavy Water) from somewhere outside the country - then one might be able to argue that there is significant public domain evidence that supports the notion that DPRK 6 was a two stage device.


At 6:08 AM, Blogger Nanana said...

Is this about NoKo going Bitcoin?

At 7:04 AM, Blogger maverick said...

I don't know if you can buy Heavy Water on the black market in any quantity.

At 9:16 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

those so called "crypto nazis" wouldn't interfere with kosovo, libya, syria, Israel, saudia arabia, iran, pakistan, or India for that matter. sink or swim.

globalists on the other hand, knows whats good for you.

At 4:59 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Ralphy

Someone better tell Trump that coz He has Heritage etal drawing up plans for administering post KJU Korea. Bremmer's coming back for Neocon 2.0?

Likelihood off war now at "75%".

Dunno if Trump w flip flop but if he does we will sink deeper into a commitment trap.

Expect market shifts tomorrow as news of post war planning goes over like a lead balloon.

Going offline to kiss my IRA for the last time.

At 5:12 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Also NorSar & CTBTO revised estimates to 250kT.

Per 38North RN detection is likely as streams of sub surface water are now rising out of area. Fresh Xe detection is now anticipated.

Apparently someone is going to fly SAR camera over the mountain to try and spot cavity.

38North says 800m overburden was likely for dprk 6. For reference S2 was 200 m deep.

Additional spoils are visible in recent imagery. So DPRK 7 is in the works.

At 4:38 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

At 4:40 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

noko is a mad dog state that has directly threatened the US. It is not the equivalent of kosovo or syria. be that as it may, there will be no first strike war against noko because of the related civilian casualties in seoul.

a first strike against noko would be a betrayal against soko despite the threat to the US. matthis has acknowledged the problem of first strike and related civilian casualties. I would remind you that noko has vx and seoul is within cannon range.

chinese banks OTOH make a good economic first strike target. noko is a client state of china.

At 6:10 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Ralphy,

Neither KJU nor DJT give a fuck about what happens to Seoul or Pyongyang or New York.

Trump is old and most likely dying from some STD that he doesn't want to admit he has. KJU has enough metabolic disorders and risk factors that he will likely croak in the next decade (if one of his own family members doesn't kill him first).

Targeting Chinese banks will only crash the dollar. As the dollar crashes so will everyone's IRA and also the *entire* economy of the Midwest which is based on international trade in Corn!

The time for such fantasies is over.

The reason we are seeing all this escalatory talk of a war with North Korea is because Trump claims to be a big swinging dick. If he shrivels up and backs down in front of a short fat Asian dude, he will look like the biggest pussy in the world. His fragile ego can't afford that.

So he is going to keep talking like an idiot and sinking us deeper and deeper into the commitment trap he has created. Once the trap is deep enough (which IMHO it already is) - no GOP leader replacing him will be able to get out of it. The clash with Kim Jong Un will become personal struggle to prove the manhood of every GOPer.

Mattis cannot stop the march of this war.

Trump voters are typically besotted with toxic visions of masculinity and it is no surprise they are drawn to the vision of a glorious vision of war with Kim Jong Un and DPRK.

At 10:30 AM, Blogger maverick said...

I have been sensing there will be a very sticky end to this Trump business and I think we are finally getting there.

The vision of the glorious vision of war with KJU will be the death of us all.

At 11:56 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

using low yield precision guided weapons the trumpster could open up noko's tunnels and bunkers like a hungry grizzly bear opening up a can of chicken-of-the-sea premium albacore tuna fish. ........but never happen, he'll wuss out.....

At 4:58 AM, Blogger maverick said...

> using low yield precision guided weapons the trumpster could open up noko's tunnels and bunkers like a hungry grizzly bear opening up a can of chicken-of-the-sea premium albacore tuna fish.

This is exactly what I mean by the allure of toxic masculinity.

Everything is not a hold waiting for a penis shaped cylinder to go into.

Anyways - I have run out of things to say about Trump.

His political situation has become precarious, he is reaching out to the Dems in the hope of deflecting the Mueller blow. The Dems are only interested in using this drive a permanent wedge between him and the GOP. Nazis aren't going to like the DACA flip flop. That is going to create more instability inside WH.

Eventually ideas like the one you have outlined will appeal to him and he will draw us into a war with North Korea in the hope that it gets the Mueller thing off his back.

Once a war starts the market will have significant fluctuations which will kill most small investors and badly maul the IRAs of ordinary folks. Even if Kim Jong Un doesn't actually nuke us, we will do 10x the damage to ourselves.

At 4:58 AM, Blogger maverick said...

This is all very depressing - I am going to switch gears to MEDEA.


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