Tuesday, April 10, 2018

Syrian Airspace and Territorial Waters Getting Crowded

It seems Trump could not decide if he wanted to launch an attack on Syria.

I am not entirely certain why he wants to - some say it is to divert attention from his troubles with Mueller. Others say he is trying to spark a war with Iran, still others say he has no fucking clue what he is doing and wants to do something before all his power is taken away from him. *

Anyway the Russians are freaking out. They know Trump can't control where every bullet will hit, so they are taking all possible steps to keep their assets out of harms way and to make it look like there will be a major cost associated with anything the hurts them. Like most people we all know that this is bullshit - if the US hits the Russians by mistake - they will say "Sorry" and Putin will say "Its okay - shit happens" - but domestically that won't look good so this show is being mounted to make it look like the Russia will be the ultimate badass if they get hit.

The Russians are also trying to make it look like they are helping Assad. I am sure that Assad is not happy about their lack of help on the weekend IDF raid. So now the RuAF has to put on a bigger show of not being a complete fucking bunch of morons in Assad's eyes.

To that end A50 Mainstays are being put on airborne EW picket (apparently protected by a Su-27/30 BARCAP). When possible RuAF is buzzing US and French ships as they form a firing line off Syrian territorial waters. And apparently some kind of jamming is being attempted of US drones. There is also a lot of PR being put out via social media to signal to the world that Russian forces will resist any attempt by the US to displace Assad. Whether this is the reality or not - is difficult to say.

Apparently the RuAF was harassing Allied ships so badly that the TuAF or NATO ac in Turkey were dispathed to mount a BARCAP around the ships. There is a P8 out of Sigonella that is circling in the Med off between Tartus and Lakatia - which suggests an unfriendly submarine may be present.

Rumors are circulating that FSA is getting ready to take Deir Ezzor from SAA today. Not sure who is planning to go do something now that everyone looks like they are doing something.

I waited yesterday until daybreak in Syria to see if Trump would give the go order. This is usually preceded by an EAM a few hours before the event. There was no mention of an EAM being transmitted in the usual places. So unless I hear that EAM or Trump decides to tweet the attack order, I don't think there is any chance of an escalation.

The Assadholes** have figured out that the best way to stay alive is to stay close to the Russians. I am sure the IRGC guys have figure that out as well. So they are going to stick as close to the Russians as they can. There are news items which point to a shift in major SAA units towards Russian held positions. This is going to make it harder to attack SAA w/o killing Russians.

Trumpers are going around polling their fellow Trumpers about whether its time for Trump to take out Assad. I guess Trump's inconsistent bullshit about taking out Assad and blaming Obama for not doing something Trump openly warned him not to do is getting too onerous for even Trump to wash off.

Trump and Mattis have cancelled trips abroad to stay home for the big fight. So clearly even Mattis is unsure how bad this is going to get.

Not entirely sure how its going to play out but I am pretty certain barring a sudden act of God we are looking at a major escalation here.

The most likely outcome of this *** is that Trump will use the resulting conflict to seize control of the government and create some kind of barrier to further legal challenges to to his collapsing position in L'affaire Rus. 

* that is most likely IMHO the truth. This dude is so incompetent - I think that is the maximum level of self-awareness he has. Anything deeper than that is some strategy that someone else is imposing on him. He knows his time in power is ending soon, so he wants to have a last go at it.

** should I trademark that or something? I feel like no one has come up with that.

*** That and I think that Bolton is already in the WH executive washroom beating off furiously to pics of dead kids. I think that may be why Tom Bossert left - he like walked in on this shit and was like "fuck this Man fuck this..." (just kidding!! - I have no sources in the West Wing that would tell me stuff like that only Shawn Hannity does.).


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