Monday, March 20, 2017

The Daily Donald 3/20/2017

We all know today will be quite interesting. The House committee on intelligence will meet and review evidence of Russian ties to the Trump regime. While not as powerful or important as the Senate Committee on Intelligence, we are seeing significant damage to the Trump admin even with this minimal level of scrutiny.

If DJT's admin was subject to the same level of investigation that HRC was during the "Benghazi" Affair or the BHO admin was over the "Birth Certificate" issue - the entire DJT Admin will collapse in microseconds. There is simply too much rotten wood in the DJT power structure - too many public associations with drug traffickers, money launderers, RU oligarchs, middle eastern dictators, and general scum to permit him a sure foothold on anything.

Add to that the problem of his debilitating  narcissism, his behavior with Chancellor Merkel and Prime Minister Kenny proved that he is incapable of interacting with equals in a mature fashion. The entire performance left one with the impression of a schizophrenic WH policy staff coupled with a leader who didn't know how anything actually worked.

As some of you may have heard RU is activating its spearheads. We don't know if this is real world or drill. If we had clear intelligence on how well the mud-season was affecting the routes parallel to the axis of these maneuvers we might have a sense of what the RU intentions are but at this time that intelligence is not available to the public. I estimate that forces in the Baltics, Scandinavia and Ukraine can be relied on to hold major nodes for a period of 48 hours at maximum. This timescale will shrink dramatically if RuAF achieves air superiority. Beyond that the USAF will have to step in to restore the balance of terror.

Everyone anticipates that DPRK will demonstrate a version of the Ulam-Teller design with LiD fusion fuel and an enriched Uranium tamper. This would allow them to achieve a yield in the 100 kT range and put MT level yields within their reach. They would also be in possession of extremely proliferation sensitive information that would make it impossible to avoid negotiating with them. Could a position of advantage be attained by quick military maneuver at this time? perhaps something that douses the test itself? - Maybe - but that is a lot to orchestrate in a very short time and it is very high on details. Details is something DJT doesn't do well in general - less so when he is looking at the prospect of jail time over ties to Russian criminals. That may explain Secy. Tillerson's reticence to take the press along and why the dinner meeting with SoKo was called off. A military option would require a SoKo approval which would require a discussion of details and Secy Tillerson was not prepared for that. IMHO - that's why the SoKo acidly remarked that he was "fatigued" and couldn't make the dinner. 

This leaves us with the House Committee hearings today. I think we will see more information about the nature of ties between Alfa Bank and the Trump organization. It would interesting to see if the IC thinks a subterranean communication protocol like Iodine was used. It is likely that any text transmitted over this channel was encoded with an OTP. And if one wants to transmit an OTP, the best place to do it via brush pass. If your yacht passes an RU oligarch's yacht close enough, you can pass an OTP between the two via a short range low power protocol like BT3 or BT4. Using that OTP and the Iodine tunnel protocol, you  would get end-to-end encryption. As long as the entire exercise was placed on servers separated from the main players, you would have a semblance of deniability.

The mere existence of this covert communication route or even the existence of encrypted communications between between the RIS and the DJT Campaign staff is not sufficient to guarantee that a treason charge will stick. Until the exact content of the communications and their true interpretation is known - we will not be able to say for certain that DJT conspired with the RIS to influence the election. I suspect this is the bottom we will be able to reach with the investigation.

It is possible that associates of DJT like Secy Sessions, Carter Page, Mike Flynn, Roger Stone, Sean Hannity, Paul Manafort, Corey Lewandowski etc... would end up being sent to jail for their role in facilitating such communication, but it is unlikely a charge of treason would stick to DJT. It is possible that one or all of these people could turn against DJT and turn state witness in exchange for reduced sentences, but that is a distant possibility at this time. In any case if they entertain such notions, RIS would put them to sleep. In the worst case scenario, DJT would resign from office in exchange for an end to scrutiny.

Against that background, one sees the simple outlines of the basic Democratic Party strategy. The party cannot really believe that it will successfully impeach or convict DJT on a charge of treason. It may be able to do that on the "Emoluments Clause", but the GOP will stand in the way of that. From a strategic perspective, we must also realize two things.

1) By impeaching DJT, the Democratic Party will essentially allow the GOP plan of riding DJT's coat-tails into power to succeed.
2) Trumpers who enjoyed the benefits of Democratic Party's governance during the BHO period and then spat on its face by voting for Trump, will face no consequences for their actions.

It is therefore much more efficient for the Democratic Party to simply push this impeachment and RIS narrative (as supported by facts - ofcourse)  to a place where it generates the maximal amount of friction in the GOP+Trump machine. The prevalence of such friction will slow down some of the genocidal agendas of Bannon et al,, but more importantly it will create enough leverage to permit Democratic senators and congressmen to insert earmarks inside major bills that deflect the blow of collective DJT+GOP stupidity on to the very voters that brought them into power. This way only those people who actually wanted Trump to be president will suffer the consequences of his rule. Trumpers alone will face the consequences of their insanity.

Should Trumpers want to return to the fold of sanity - the path will be quite steep. They will have to visibly and verifiably renounce all hatred of HRC and BHO. Since that hatred has been a staple of their existence, it will be quite hard for them to do so. But should they make this transition, one can work on ways to elect the right people in 2018.

Clearly Trumpers do not have to do this - they can keep voting for DJT and the GOP and live out the rest of their lives (which may be quite short due to a total cessation of welfare & entitlement spending in GOP controlled states) in the twisted vindication that comes from holding on to their bizarre ideas about HRC and BHO.

What applies to Trumpers - applies equally well to Berniecrats. They too should be made to realize the extraordinary price that accompanies stupidity.

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