Monday, March 06, 2017

Threads in the DJT story

As with all things, we have only tantalizing hints about the underlying story here, and absent a major investigation - it is unlikely we will find incontrovertible proof of anything. It is also true that in the current atmosphere of partisanship it is unclear if we will have the courage to accept the truth once we find it.

That said - this is what the story is sounding like so far. And since everything is about the tone of the story as opposed to the factual content these days - the mere allusion of fact is infinitely more powerful than fact itself.

As things stand - there appear to be two branched threads in the DJT Saga.

The main thread reads something like this.

1) xKGB folks like Putin etc... sucked wealth out of the collapsing USSR and funneled it in to the American/Western stock market using intermediaries like the DJT corporation. The money grew in the Western stock market, and using some of the returns moved via banks of convenience in Bahamas, Cypress etc.., Putin was able to make himself Emperor of Russia. The ROI was good, and the good times rolled in Moscow.

2) As the price of oil fell, the financial leg of the Grand Duchy of Moscow crumbled. Putin needed to pull money out of the US stock market (prices need to be high) and shore up his shaky throne. So he secretly offered his old contact DJT political support for taking off sanctions and allowing Exxon to funnel about $0.5 T into the RU economy. With Putin's help and his extremely divisive campaign DJT won the election but due to poor OpSec in DJTC and RIS- exposure occurred and DJT failed to deliver his end of the bargain.

3) This left Putin in a difficult position. DJTs behavior was seen as an echo of his untrustworthy past. Fears that DJT might literally or figuratively nuke RU interests grew and that increased the instability of Putin's throne.  A troop mobilization created as a show of strength now leans closer to a real shooting war which no one in RU has the stomach for.

This brings me to the second thread that we are now seeing emerging in the Sessions saga.

In pt 2. indicated earlier, Putin offered the support of his immense cyber forces to help DJT with the election.

At least one part of this was a strategy of deliberately hacking the DNC and selectively releasing emails from HRC Campaign officials. The hope appears to have been to wean away democratic leaning progressives.

The exact mechanics of this process required that the Russian hacking efforts were mated to deep knowledge of the DNC political machine. Such knowledge existed only in the GOP. This is where Sessions came in. It appears some kind of information sharing agreement between RIS cyber forces and GOP dirty tricks people came into being after the meeting between Amb Kislyak and Sen. Sessions. At a deeper level a connection was established between the RU backed Assange Organization (i.e. Wikileaks) and DJT campaign. The bridge appears to have been Rudy Giuliani/Roger Stone Jr, Felix Sater and Julian Assange. It appears Assange was connected to APT28/Fancy Bear, APT29/Cozy Bear and some other hackers. Another line appears to run via DJT lawyer Micheal Cohen, thru his now dead relative and Felix Sater to someone close to Putin himself. A separate line ran via Carter Page to Rosneft leadership.

A separate part of this strategy involved data mining and social media based targeting for an anti-GOTV campaign. This was run out of Cambridge Analytica, Brietbart (which seems to be the main data nexus) and various other "news sites". Some of these appear to have been run by GOP dirty tricks people but the Russians actually appear to have financed the big data end. A lot of questions are being asked about the human links between Robert Mercer's organizations and Russian Oligarchs. I fear we will learn more unpleasant things about this in the days to come.

A third thread runs via Micheal Flynn and Jared Kushner. We have only seen a grazing coverage of this in various media sources and again I expect this to become newsy as days go on.

For its part the DJT Admin is struggling to control the narrative on anything. The climate of partisanship and divisive behavior that they fostered to ensure DJT was elected president is backfiring. DJT is now locked in a open war with the media and he spends half his physical resources on combating the "Media". That does not leave time for basic cabinet level functions and it is unclear how long he will be able to physically withstand this level of stress.

The entire stock market is rising on one premise that DJT will soon announce meaningful economic packages that permit greater economic growth. This is happening despite the fact that the Fed is set to raise interest rates again, and every analyst worth their salt is pointing to large PE ratios and repeated shorts being positioned in the futures market.

As DJT's star fades, the market crash of the century draws nearer.


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