Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Mr Putin's big problem

The problem with pretending to be an omnipotent dictator greater than God is that people expect you to live up to the image you have created.

Per RUGov that 56M votes were cast for Putin and allegedly 74M voters turned up to vote. You see this is "slightly better" than Putin's own projections that he would make the "70-70" i.e. 70% turnout and 70% of the total votes cast.

But as Sergei Shpilkin's analysis indicates, 10 M votes were "ballot stuffed".

If you take this in conjunction with RUGov's figures - we see that 46M votes were cast for Putin in an election where candidates like Navalny were debarred, and only 64M voters actually turned up to vote.

This means Putin's numbers are really 58-68 when he said 70-70. And even with Navalny's name taken off the ballot he isn't able to make his count without outrageous ballot stuffing.

This is bad.

This means that people inside the Grand Duchy of Moscow now openly know that Mr. Putin has feet of clay.

The exact consequences of that are hard to predict, but most likely they will ask Putin for more "baksheesh" to keep him in power. As the RU economy continues to struggle due to the sanctions, the likelihood that Putin will have the money to pay them diminishes. This most likely means they will start pocketing more from "the take"*.

That kind of behavior creates problems. Problems that have no easy solutions.

All this will make Putin very uncomfortable in the time ahead. It is not clear whether he will attempt to use CBRN based terror strikes as a leverage tool to push for an end to sanctions. I suspect he will be tempted as the wallet dries out in Moscow.

* "the take" is a flow of cash inside RU. It makes its way to the top, but if greedy hands sink too deep into it, then there will be problems for the top.


At 4:55 AM, Blogger quantum chaos said...

Can I ask a few questions on Desh?

Whats the agenda of Rajiv Malhotra types in publicising 'Breaking India" project of west? I mean Indian establishment from Day one knows about this agenda, what exactly has changed for Mr. Malhotra to say that he had this epiphany and establishment is on side of breaking India forces? Simply to discredit establishment and capture it?

Also why is BJP expanding so much energy on this Aryan Dravidian issue? Although genetic results seem to favour arrival of Aryans, how does it matter in modern Indian republic?

At 6:35 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

who cares when or even if the aryans invaded? much ado about nothing.

if you do care, how exactly does this affect India's future progress? where does the "correct" history of hinduism come into relevance of say...in the creation of venture capitalism in producing goods and services that can compete in a global economy instead of exporting people to the west?

just some idle thoughts.....sorry to interrupt.......

At 6:46 AM, Blogger quantum chaos said...

Oh I dont. RWers do. They apparently are convinced that this is another ploy to balkanise India.

At 10:25 AM, Blogger maverick said...

I think this is all part of the BJP's 2019 election strategy. Current trends suggest that BJP will lose the commanding position in Lok Sabha and be forced to be more accommodating of coalition partners.

Whether that is actually true in 2019 is difficult to say but it is a starting point for building scenarios.

A critical aspect of this is keeping the NDA welded together, but with the opposite of that happening and Modi/Shah combine losing their shine among voters, they are trying to link "leaving the NDA" with "separating from India"

Naturally this doesn't work with the political classes, so a mass marketing campaign aimed at voters is being attempted.

I don't know if this will work, it seems pretty transparent and the anti-NDA counter move appears to be to go after Modi/Shah performance in Doklam.

I think uncomfortable questions will be asked vis-a-vis Modi/Shah handling of Chinese Armor movement across Tsangpo. Every second that Chinese Armor Bde sits south of Shigatse will be a pain in Modi/Shah's ass.

Chinese are very good at linking political moves to military movements. Wonder if this will work in their favor.

At 4:19 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

according to news sources T is considering $50 billion in trade tariffs against china. in return, china is planning to have tariffs against US agriculture......life is going to get interesting.....we will have to wait and see....the US is the preferred market place globally....so far, but that could change. heck, even India has a trade surplus with the US, one of the very few countries that it does......

At 4:24 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

rino conservatives will go into apoplexy over these tariffs......so will the liberal elitists...they all hate populism and nationalism with a passion.....grin.

At 10:02 AM, Blogger maverick said...

>> life will get interesting

You sir are the king of understatements.

Why just RINOs and Liberal Elitists - All the farmers in the Midwest are going to have a shock as will most of the banks lending to the Ag sector.

Per recent reports the state of Ag debt:assets is the same as the 1987 farm crisis and there are suicide hotlines up for farmers in most parts of the Midwest.


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