Thursday, May 31, 2018

Strategic variants of the fable of the Lion, the Bear and the Fox

There is an ancient tale of the Lion, the Bear and the Fox  - the Lion kills a deer, the Bear fights the Lion for it and two battle it out until both are exhausted. The Fox comes in and takes the deer as its dinner. The Bear and the Lion die of exhaustion.

The strategic variant of this idea was first exposed in a statement by Secy Robert Gates in 2010 when he said "The Saudi's want to fight Iran down to the last American" [1].

A most topical variant of this is the present day struggle for ownership of Jerusalem.

The Israelis led by Bibi Netanyahu are attempting to solidify their ownership over the city and ending up in a death match with the Palestinians. Unsurprisingly Israel which is militarily stronger than the Palestinians is being egged on by elements of the US based Evangelical Christian movement. Per the American Evangelicals who support Israel, (c.f. the Omega Code), the whole point of assisting Israeli ownership of Jerusalem is to spark the Apocalypse - when Christ will return and slay all unbelievers (include most Jews) and lead the Chosen ones (i.e. Born Again Christians) to his newly established kingdom. The exceptionally brilliant piece in Vice News brings this out in vivid detail.

While this sounds like nonsense to most who hear it - and a non evangelical Christian (especially an ancient orthodox one) might say "Gee, I just don't see Christ as a real estate agent or property developer", it is important to see this action by American Evangelical groups as a variant of the strategy laid out in the ancient fable of the Lion, the Bear and the Fox.

Essentially - American Evangelicals seem keen to fight Muslims down to the last Israeli. And I venture that since historically no one group has every held power in Jerusalem for a large period of time, this is likely a common pattern in history. (I am not that well versed in regional history - so it is more appropriate for someone with better understanding than me to comment on that aspect).

I have long felt that Bibi and his friends in the Yesha council are keen to develop property in Judea and Samaria - but the target may not be limited to Jews in the New York - New Jersey - Skokie belt as I had earlier guessed. There final intended market may be Evangelicals in Texas.

Again - I like a property development as much as anyone else but this whole business of fighting Muslims down to the last Israeli does not seem very kosher to me.

I also find the idea of a Aliyah of European Jews (frightened of Muslims "taking over Europe") kind of absurd. If all the Jews retreat to Israel, they will be one nuclear strike away from complete extinction. The idea of tilting the population balance of Israel in favor of the Jews by encouraging immigration out of Europe and Russia is strategically flawed. It really does not make sense to put all of ones eggs in one basket.

I cannot help stress this enough - there is NO SENSE in precipitating the Apocalypse (c- Barnett Rubin). 

I don't see the point of provoking Hamas into a wider confrontation when all it does is make the IDF jumpy and everyone in the coastal belt stressed out beyond belief.  No good will come from that - this way madness lies*.

* Yes I heard Hezbollah's threats too - but quite frankly - Bibi's inability to remain Prime Minister does not constitute an existential threat to Israel.

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