Thursday, July 12, 2018

Trump trashes NATO in a bid to appease Putin

Trump's really gone to town on NATO. He has lied, obfuscated and generally put on a big show about how the US is going to leave NATO. This will obviously have a negative impact on European and US security.

From Trump's tone - we can tell he is upset about two things -

1) He feels that NATO countries all have ties to Russia but they are focusing too much on his own ties. Germany is singled out because it seems that Deutsche Bank and its Maltese/Cypriot friends served as a way to funnel RIS payoffs to Trump. The gist of this is known to the public, the details are still secret. The public at large (including most Trump supporters) remain uneducated about the manner in which DB's setup was used by Trump to grease the palms of people like SCOTUS Kennedy's son.

2) He feels that NATO costing the US too much. By the US he means *himself* (Trumpers make the mistake of thinking he is talking about *them* - because they like to think of themselves as "Real Americans" but the reality is that Trump only thinks about *himself*). This suggests that Trump is somehow paying people in the EU to hold back details of the aforementioned Russia ties from US investigating authorities.

Trump is S.O.L when it comes to dealing with Europe. Putin can't help him there as European intelligence services are more than a match for Putin's RIS guys. And if he pulls this Novichok stuff in Europe - the riposte in Moscow will knock Putin off his chair. The only ones he can pull this stuff on is UK, that because they are largely a soft state coping with the Brexit imposed economic collapse.

The peculiar fact right now is that barring the RIS backed Right Wing anti Immigration groups in Europe, the bulk of the EU polity has no interest in returning to living under either the fascist or chekist boots. Having lived through the horror of the Second World War and the Soviet Occupation, the European population remains disinclined to be used as an ass-wipe by Putin. America has yet to learn this lesson - so it will unfortunately go through a period when Putin rules the US by proxy.

The likelihood of some kind of "grand bargain" with Russia at Helsinki increases. Such a grand bargain will doubtlessly open the gates to the official removal of sanctions on Putin's regime. The sanctions are currently effectively removed at the legal level because Trump has indicated he will not enforce them (see his response to the latest sanctions bill passed by the House and Senate). The real problem right now is that the EU and UK's main banks do not want to host the cash flow associated with this.

Russia sells ONG to various countries - they pay Russia back through channels that are high-risk. These channels carry higher risk premiums - those premiums cut into the Putin Cartel's "10%" cut on  all transaction. If the main banks in the EU and UK agree to host these payments, then Putin's Cartel can increase its take. So Putin has worked hard to ensure that Trump delivers on his promise to rid Russia of sanctions.

There is however a fatal flaw in this approach.

Once the sanctions are lifted, the Putin Cartel will move all the money it has stashed in the US stock market and real-estate sector back to Russia. This is needed to stabilize the Putin regime. The resulting fluctuation in the stock market will be so large that it will trigger a market collapse. This has happened before (two months prior to Putin's "re-election" the DJIA mysteriously dropped). Should this repeat after the Helsinki meeting, the resulting collapse will be severely complicated by the tariffs that Trump has introduced - complications that will frustrate the ability of the Putin Cartel to move its money around.

One of the most unfortunate aspects of a KGB education is the inability to understand how the market works. Sadly - one cannot correct this failure.


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