Friday, August 01, 2008

The perils of not taking responsibility for your actions

You get a call from your friend, and he says stir up trouble on my account. So you do it - you call your contacts in a website, you call your acquaintances in the media and tell them things that they need to hear in order to stir up trouble. They hear you and they go ballistic with their hype.

Soon the pot of trouble comes to a boil.

In all the excitement of doing things - you lose sight of why your friend wants you to stir up trouble in the first place and you get carried away.

Between you and your friend - the lack of attention to detail - ensures that the pot of trouble boils over and now you and your friend have more trouble than either of you are worth.

So tomorrow by some chance your friend does manage to sit on a high chair.

Having lavishly decked himself in robes that rival Shah Jahan's, he sits in regal splendor upon the peacock throne - atop a mountain of endless flattery and ridiculous exaggeration.

Now from this peak of power - he lets forth the words of his first imperial firman " Bismillah ur Rehmaan ur Rahim - I am the nasir e-amir al mumin and in his name I rule this powerfully armed kingdom ...".

Within the ranks of the courtiers, a murmer ensues and a voice in the back calls out "Alampanah, no ... from what we have heard on the internet - your friend who stirred up trouble on your behalf - says - we have no arms and everything fizzled ".

Your friend on the peacock thone nervously fidgets with the pearls in his necklace cautiously adjusting the Kohinoor as it sits atop his crown - and replies "well... my friend who stirred up trouble also said that it is possible to make them unfizzle".

Now the voice in the back of diwan-e-khas says "Sarkar - your friend who stirred up trouble - says the country is filled with incompetents - perhaps you should ask your friend who has stirred up trouble to come and unfizzle it himself - since he knows so much from reading the internet...but Jahapanah, until such a time as that is done - you have no arms and no legs".

Now your friend is taken aback - the comfortable malmal ki razai under him has just been uncermoniously pulled out and the Great Emperor's tashreef now sits on the floor of the Diwan-e-khas - worse than naked - without dignity and shorn of power.

The problem is that the pot of trouble cannot be unstirred.

So ultimately - those that start trouble must be consumed by it.

I say again - take responsibility for your actions.

Admit publicly that you allowed political considerations to overcome your judgement and that you lied to service a private political agenda and in doing so forefeited the moral authority that accompanies your position as a moderator - and for God's sake resign your moderation privileges.

This only gets worse from this point on - fall on your sword and spare us the task of watching a far more grisly sight - the your friend - the Emperor-wannabe - drawing and quartering you to save his own skin.


At 8:04 AM, Blogger GinC said...

>>> worse than naked - without dignity and shorn of power.

Like a webmaster jumping up ad down, with nothing but an 'admin hat'..
Telling everyone .."Other Emperor has no clothes"

And will chant "satyam eve jayete'
.. right after saying:
2+2 = 768.3435354

At 8:26 AM, Blogger maverick said...

There is a way to end this before it gets serious.

At 11:04 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Walking On Water (WOW)!

AK's words have been met with approval on BRF!

That little pesky nobody has finally fallen in line and is making sure that he stays within Bannerjee approval radius in his comments.

Principle of 1B2S (once bitten twice shy) will ensure continued compliance from that appliance.

At 2:25 PM, Blogger GinC said...

Pesh hai few lines from Neeraj:

Kya shabaab tha ke phuul phuul pyaar kar uthaa

Kyaa kamaal tha ki dekh aaina sihar uthaa

Is taraf zameen aur aasmaan udhar uthaa

Thaamakar jigar uthaa ki jo milaa nazar uthaa

Par tabhi yahan magar, aisi kuch hava chali

Lut gai kali-kali ki ghut gai gali-gali

Aur ham lute-lute, vaqt se pite-pite

Shaam ki sharaab kaa khumaar dekhate rahe,
Kaarvaan guzar gaya gubaar dekhte rahe…

At 4:58 PM, Blogger Mullah Aalloak-uz-amman bin Ghazi said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

At 5:00 PM, Blogger Mullah Aalloak-uz-amman bin Ghazi said...

wah, wah, ginc sahab. Aap bhi chupae rustam nikalae.

Ishaaraa masters are continuing with rona dhona and sell out. Pesh hai:

kyaa shikwa, kyaa shaq, kyaa baazaari baatein
kyon dhoka, kyon zurrat, kyon nuclear raatein

kis ko pataa hain bush ki amreeki chaalein
Alok kae isharae, kal ki thandi misaalein


At 5:26 PM, Blogger Mullah Aalloak-uz-amman bin Ghazi said...

ginc said:

Aur ham lute-lute, vaqt se pite-pite

Shaam ki sharaab kaa khumaar dekhate rahe,
Kaarvaan guzar gaya gubaar dekhte rahe…


with apologies pesh hai:

chor Maal lae gayae, Cap RE kar gayae
Aur ham khadae khadae, BARC sae satae satae
Thoriun kae dher ki, dhool dekhtae rahae

GigaBum bujh gayaa, fiz'l dekhate rahae

At 11:15 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

There are several degrees of experts/expertise.

When a real expert makes statements, wannabe experts feel forced to make counter-statements. A lesser expert merely absorbs the data.

The motivation to be considered an expert are also vastly different. Some are driven by an educational desire to make arcane subjects more available to interested non-experts.

Others are not so charitable. They try to use a partial understanding and show someone else in bad light.

Others simply watch calmly.

Here is a statement that will meet with silence from me but is open for your comment:


Any engineer in the trade of shockwave driven compression will never go for inherently poor design of assembling a spherical body by intentionally introducing metal-air discontinuity at the worst possible place by making slices (I.e. poor design choice is use of any angle different from direction of the radial compression. ANY density discontinuity in plutonium sphere has to be minimized at great cost. The obvious and direct method is thus to partition pit segments where every cut is a diameter cut of the sphere, that passes through center of the sphere).

That is a very poor design. As if there were dreath of challenges for the Indian team in 1970's, this design is like shooting your own foot. A sure recipe for poor performance.


At 11:53 PM, Blogger quantum chaos said...

Mani Saar,
how can we comment?We don't understand the treacherous nature of non linearity

At 11:58 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

just came back from a 3 day tour of western Bihar.
went to quite a few places though.

Visited small hydro projects in Rohtas ( naxalite central), Gaya, Buxar, Arrah and Jehanabad.

Roads have improved in these stretches. the intra state highways are decent.

what really struck me however was the number of people out till even eleven at night ... something unheard of even in Patna.

In fact Saw at least four lady drivers in Patna...

Traveled quite a bit at night . No stoppages , no incidents nothing...

the driver told me that three years ago such a thing would have been inconceivable and some thug with a gun would have stopped us, especially in the Patna - jehanabad stretch . no such business now.

things are changing ....

At 12:03 AM, Blogger quantum chaos said...

Thanks for some Positive news SJ. Saw one docu on NDTV regarding Bihar floods yesterday.Was left speechless.
I hope change for good accelerates.

At 7:39 AM, Blogger maverick said...


" Any engineer in the trade of shockwave driven compression will never go for inherently poor design of assembling a spherical body by intentionally introducing metal-air discontinuity at the worst possible place by making slices (I.e. poor design choice is use of any angle different from direction of the radial compression. ANY density discontinuity in plutonium sphere has to be minimized at great cost. The obvious and direct method is thus to partition pit segments where every cut is a diameter cut of the sphere, that passes through center of the sphere).

That is a very poor design. As if there were dreath of challenges for the Indian team in 1970's, this design is like shooting your own foot. A sure recipe for poor performance."

How many engineers in the trade machine plutonium? Do you know how to do it? Have you ever been within ten feet of a piece of plutonium?

Do you know what the constraints involved in machining the Plutonium are?

What is the tolerance related trade-off on making two hemispheres v/s making slices?

What do you know about the propagation of the implosion wave inside Plutonium? Is that something that is understood exactly? - anywhere in the world?

Can you prove this statement?

" Even 1 micron thin layer of air/discontinuity between the pieces will kill it."

Have you machined a surface to "1 mircon" flatness?

Do you know the equation of state of plutonium? of the specific metal used in India's bombs?

Your lack of competence in these matters relating to actual nuclear matters is a little too obvious - so please just stick to things you do know.

I have told you the kinds of questions you are raising cannot be answered publicly. While you have comfortably surrounded yourself with people who will not wonder - why you repeatedly ask questions of a proliferation sensitive nature - the silent ones in New Delhi will not be so stupid.

I have told you that the kinds of questions you are raising publicly make it seem like Indians in the US are surreptitiously learning how to make nukes and this damages the standing of hundreds of thousands of Indians trying to earn a living in the tech. sector in the US. People responsible for trade and commerce with the US will look poorly on your conduct in this regard.

And I have told you that your past association with BJP causes is not something that can be hidden. Just because you have surrounded yourself on the internet with people who can't ask inconvenient questions - the rest of the world is not filled with such complacent idiots.

People will ask questions and the answers will point to your links to the BJP and they will use that to screw the BJP. In this way - stain of your lack of competence and common sense - will transfer to the BJP's political leadership with disasterous consequences for India.

You have no clue who this "Ravi CV" was in the first place - and for all you know he could have been a left front provocation specifically designed to screw the BJP or he could have been a NPA plant designed to provoke discussions on India's nuclear options. You look upon this person as some kind of prophet- I assure you - you are living to the words of a false prophet.

Dear Hon. Webmaster - you have already done enough damage with this - please don't make it any worse.

Just resign now and accept responsibility for your personal failure.

Spare India and the BJP the stain of your bizarre behaviour.

At 7:47 AM, Blogger GinC said...

Thanks prof T. for pointing this masterpiece:

Any engineer in the trade of shockwave driven compression will never go for inherently poor design of assembling a spherical body by intentionally introducing metal-air discontinuity at the worst possible place by making slices (I.e. poor design choice is use of any angle different from direction of the radial compression. ANY density discontinuity in plutonium sphere has to be minimized at great cost. The obvious and direct method is thus to partition pit segments where every cut is a diameter cut of the sphere, that passes through center of the sphere).

That is a very poor design. As if there were dreath of challenges for the Indian team in 1970's, this design is like shooting your own foot. A sure recipe for poor performance.

Seriously, I have to check BRF, and even knowing previous idiotic gems like "2+2=7865.3845 if you consider 100 years of Gobar", I have to see with my own eyes, how could some be so idiotic, yet could post and taken seriously in DF.

Move away Madam Jalebee.. there is a bigger idiot in town.

At 8:04 AM, Blogger dilbert said...

This HonWeb fellow is a whiney jackass, that much is clear. He seemed to have subsided for a few weeks, but now he is back to whining, slinging bullshit around the forum and providing "peer review" for India's scientists.

I don't understand why the forum ownership puts up this, I really don't. After all, this HonWeb is not the boss of bosses, he doesn't pay the bills to keep the forum going; why is he allowed to continue?

On this nuke thread, Shiv's first post said "No whining, no politics". The HonWeb and his gang of stupid chelas proceeded to whine , play politics and generally ignore Shiv's directive. And this has gone on for 13 pages without admin intervention.

At 11:22 AM, Blogger GinC said...

Even Madam Jalebee can not come out with these gems:
.ANY density discontinuity in plutonium sphere has to be minimized at great cost.

What exactly is a density discontinuity??? (How do you minimize a discontinuity?)


May be Jinn thermodynamics needs new renormalization theories on how to minimize singularities...

Guy should start writing for Institute of Strategic Studies of Pakistan...

May be he did, and was rejected there..

Can DF quality really sink that low.

At 12:26 PM, Blogger Rakam said...

I am sure that what BR says will cause a cascade effect that results in the US revisiting the presence of hundreds of thousands of Indians in the heart of America.

Just because BR says that it is influential, does not mean that it is. Just because you think that it is the displaced pebble that causes the avalance, does not mean that it is.

Both of you are giving the forum way too much importance.

Maybe it is time to bury the BR civil war, and you can play in your new sandbox without worrying about the BR junta knocking over your sand castles.

At 10:59 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

MIT claims to have found a solution to the intermittency problem associated with Solar and Wind ...

At 4:01 AM, Blogger Spock said...

How many times has this happened on the Nuclear thread over the past few years?

The BJP comes out with a shrill political statement against the deal.

Almost simultaneously, the shouting brigade jumps into the thread and works as a tag team, literally flooding the thread with Spam.

Stupid articles, even more stupid comments are posted with great authority and frequency.

It would be an interesting exercise for those who have the time to count the number of posts on page 11 and 12 of the current thread and then count how many of them were made by the new star Vishwakarmaa.

The ringleader(s) in this game remain the same, Webmasterji and the great social engineer. However, the shouting brigade changes from time to time. Totally new names jump in like seasoned pros and start rumour mongering, fear mongering and character assassination.

It’s starting to look like an old and faded film reel playing on and on. Sigh!

NB: After the AK interview was posted on the thread, Webmaster made some conciliatory comments. Right after that post somebody gave a not-so-subtle ishara saying that once the deal is done many people will have to post apologies on the thread.

And as a chain reaction we have shockwave compression!

At 4:32 AM, Blogger Spock said...

Even cool heads seem to be getting pissed off on BRF.

See this comment by Gerard:

You probably know as much as anyone here. Dr Kakodar, who designed the Plutonium pit and actually helped assemble the device at Pohkran is the one who really knows his stuff. He went on to design and build the Dhruva reactor, where most of India's weapons Plutonium comes from. He probably passes Pu in his stool. (ouch!)

All the real bomb men do jugaad... Oppenheimer was a master

At 4:59 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

The basic problem with discourse today can be summed up in one word - scaremongering

Df is full of it...

on both sides ...

if everybody is a damn sellout then where is the need to save a country full of sellouts ...

At 5:44 AM, Blogger Spock said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

At 5:45 AM, Blogger Spock said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

At 5:47 AM, Blogger Spock said...

It gets even better:

I wonder how many people who have ever posted on BRF have actually seen an atomic bomb? Of those that have, it would be rather presumptuous to assume they know more about bomb pits and their design than the people who actually designed and worked intimately with the material.

Good to see people finally explicitly showing their displeasure with the bullcrap that's been piling up.

There's more than 100 years worth of fuel for biogas plants on the thread by now.

Who the hell needs Uranium/PU for electricity?

At 6:33 AM, Blogger maverick said...


I will allow you the luxury of pretending BR is irrelevant if you will allow me the belief that BR matters.

At 7:09 AM, Blogger maverick said...


About this truth seeking business.

If people follow the same tactics and dig up details about your life and times - and proceed to air them with the same intensity that you have gone around babbling about things you have no comprehension of... what kind of "path" or "picture" will it convey? Can those around withstand the same level of "scrutiny" that you are subjecting others to?

Your conduct on the forum has been sufficiently disgraceful to merit several lifetime bans. If an ordinary poster had committed even 1% of the acts you have committed - they would have been subject to a permanent IP ban. The manner in which you continue this disgraceful conduct while hiding behind the moderator's privilege causes incalculable harm to the website and its image and the credibility of the moderation team. The way your are behaving is all too reminiscent of the time when people attempted to promote India Forum's interests at the expense of Bharat Rakshak's interests. With this kind of association you serve no useful purpose on the moderation team and your presence as a moderator hinders the entire debate on these matters.

If V. Sunder has changed his mind - let him write up a proper publication for Current Science reversing his position on the issue - nothing stops him. I am sure Current Science will be happy to publish it. Current Science published the Wallace paper as part of a "stimulate debate" stragety - if it is in the national interest to have such a debate - I don't see why Current Science will not publish V. Sunder's paper.

I personally suspect that V. Sunder will not publish such a paper on this because the "supporting evidence" will not withstand scrutiny but maybe you should ask V. Sunder to tell him this yourself.

Here you are - questioning the integrity of people who spent the better part of their lives for India - and you talk about the sacrifices your family has made.

How would you feel if someone were to start questioning those sacrifices? - using the same specious logic that you are using?

All your iconoclastic pursuit of truth is bringing is worship of false prophets like "RaviCV" and pain to the families of others who have made comparable sacrifices.

Is this your idea of doing good things for India? or have you been simply converted to a creed that places personal political gain ahead of common national interest?

The time has come for you to take responsibility for your failure to carry out your duties and resign from the position you are currently occupying.

I am asking you and your friends to resign their position of power -you are reaching the point where real damage can easily occur from your action and you are showing no signs of remorse for the damage you have already caused.

At 7:55 AM, Blogger GinC said...

Maverick - About the truth seeking business ...

Some time ago, BRF used to laugh at characters like Madam Jalebee and their unique sense of "logic"

Also at "scientific contents" in papers like "jinn thermodynamics.

It is sad to see, and I am not exaggerating, recent musings from Webmasterji (and rantings of the chelas ) would make papers of "jinn thermodynamics" look like serious physics.

And the DisHonWebmasterji keeps chanting "seeking of truth" not unlike alxxx-ho-akxxx" in binori madarasa's science students.

Really a sad state.

Thanks for this blog, may be other bannerjis can be put to shame so they might act. I don't think Webmmasterji has any shame.

At 8:28 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello Ginc,

I think I should answer Gerard's poser.

I have never seen an A-bomb and I only know about it because of what the Non-Proliferation people have put up on the web.

I do not want to see an atom bomb because:

- I know what kind of terrible responsibility that knowledge carries

- I have worked in enough hazardous environments to realise that that I can do without exposure to further chemical and radiation hazards.

I only know enough about physics and engineering and manufacturing to tell everyone that his "H-bomb" design that Hon. Webmaster and company seem to have pulled out of "thin air" ... is total rubbish.

I respect the words of people like AK and RC because these people have dedicated their lives to this work and because of their sacrifices India is safer and stronger than what it was.

I am happy to listen to the words of others like PKI who have made comparable sacrifices .. but frankly I personally can't follow a lot of their public utterances.

These public utterances are a cause of a lot of the commotion we see around us today.

A lot of people see this commotion and interpret it as a sign of disagreements between people in the bomb effort in India.

Whenever I have been confronted with such rumours - I have had a simple question which no one who came to me with stories of troubles has been able to answer ...

"If Dr. X has a problem with Dr. Y... that is between Dr. X and Dr Y... where do you - a third party - come into this? how is it any of your business?".

At 9:24 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

ginc sejs "may be other bannerjis can be put to shame so they might act."

Bhery phat chanch of that habbening. All bannermullahs on bhee-aar are in bhed bwith each other.

At 2:42 PM, Blogger dilbert said...


You are absolutely right, BRF has now descended to Paki-like levels of foolishness -- almost. I say "almost" because there are still a few shining examples of good sense on BRF (like Gerard, Suraj etc.) that never existed on PakDef.

At 2:42 PM, Blogger dilbert said...


You are absolutely right, BRF has now descended to Paki-like levels of foolishness -- almost. I say "almost" because there are still a few shining examples of good sense on BRF (like Gerard, Suraj etc.) that never existed on PakDef.

At 3:50 PM, Blogger GinC said...

Mullah aalloakji – if you allow me, I have the next stanza

(with apologies to Neeraj)

Honth the khule ki “Bum fail tha” pukar doon.
Haath the uthe ki , joote har kisi ko Mar doon,
Dard jo na tha linear, sabko bar bar doon,
Aur aas vah kj, nark DF par utaar doon!

Ho saka na kuchh magar,
Shaam ban gayi seher,
Woh uthi lehar ki dheh gaye kile bikhar-bikhar,
Aur ham dare-dare,
Neer nayan mein bhare,
Odh-kar kafan pade mazaar dekhte rahe,
GigaBum bujh gayaa, fiz'l dekhate rahae_

At 3:59 PM, Blogger GinC said...

dilbert - IMO, to be fair, PakDef has its own class.. but still it is a question of critical mass ...

Many of sane (in IMO, of course) voices there are getting quieter. For example, Rangandu, Amber G, Ldev etc are little quiet while drones are making too much noise.

Hon Webmasterji's posts on the other hand are getting much worse.

Personally I think BRF lost a lot when it lost people like Alok_N...

At 4:50 PM, Blogger dilbert said...

Hi ginc:

Speaking of Rangudu, I'm curious to know why he left. I read some comments here on Mav's blog that he was frustrated at all the bullshit on the forum (the same kind of Jumping Bunny Brigade crap that so many of us criticise) and said he was leaving, but I never actually read his comment. Comments, anyone?

At 3:44 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

Astrology is a science, now. :->

At 5:08 AM, Blogger Mullah Aalloak-uz-amman bin Ghazi said...

ginc mian,

SubhanAllah! Speaking of Gubaar, you may recall famous words in the nazm "na kisi ki aankh ka noor hoon". Look it up if you don't.


Meanwhile, in order to help with decisions about "resigning", here is some useful suggestion from Joe Cocker:

Baby take off your coat
Real slow
Take off your shoes
I'll take off your shoes
Baby take off your dress
Yes, yes, yes

You can leave your hat on
You can leave your hat on
You can leave your hat on

Go over there, turn on the light
Hey, all the lights
Come over here, stand on that chair
Yeah, that's right
Raise your arms up in the air
Now shake 'em
You give me reason to live
You give me reason to live
You give me reason to live
You give me reason to live

Sweet darling, (you can leave your hat on)
You can leave your hat on
Baby, (you can leave your hat on)
You can leave your hat on
(You can leave your hat on)

(You can leave your hat on)

Suspicious minds are talkin'
They're tryin' to tear us apart
They don't believe in this love of mine
They don't know what love is

They don't know what love is
They don't know what love is
They don't know what love is
Yeah, I know what love is

There ain't no way
(You can leave your hat on)
You can leave your hat on
(You can leave your hat on)
Give me the reason to live
(You can leave your hat on)
You can leave your hat on

At 8:52 AM, Blogger GinC said...

AAolkji - that was superb.
Okay, One more ...

With apologies to Bob Dylan

The Times They Are A-Changin'

Come gather 'round WebMasters
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You'll be drenched to the bone.
If your time to you
Is worth savin'
Then you better start swimmin'
Or you'll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin'.

Come postors and chelas
Who prophesize with your pen
And keep your eyes wide
The chance won't come again
And don't speak too soon
For the wheel's still in spin
And there's no tellin' who
That it's namin'.
For the loser now
Will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin'
Come Bradmins, JpegJingos ,
Please heed the call
Don't stand in the doorway
Don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There's a battle outside
And it is ragin'.
It'll soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin'.

Come Chandiji and prasadji,
Throughout the land
And don't analyze
What you can't understand

Even non-linear curves
Will never by your friends. :)
Your Exel is
Rapidly agin'.
Please get out of the new one
If you can't lend your hand
For the times they are a-changin'.

At 9:09 AM, Blogger GinC said...

you may recall famous words in the nazm "na kisi ki aankh ka noor hoon". Look it up if you don't.
Thnaks. I did recall that, but looked it up anyway.
You may enjoy - Rafi's voice:

At 11:17 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...


At 11:38 AM, Blogger GinC said...

Hello Ralphy!
>>>Astrology is a science, now. :->

NO Kidding! There is a whole new thread there.

I encourage everyone to take a look before it goes in trash.

At 1:30 PM, Blogger Rakam said...

Rangudu and others are a big loss for BRF. However, it lost a lot more when it lost Badar, Salman, and the other alternative voices that provided a holistic and informed perspective.

At 2:59 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hon. Webmaster and friends seem to be setting up for another sickening cycle of publicly sucking up and then lining up vituperative attacks.

This kind of distracting behaviour is beyond stupid.

We are reaching the next level of difficulty in this transaction.
The NSG negotiation is extremely delicate - far more so than the IAEA negotiation.

At one level everything has to be perfect to the letter so that audiences *everywhere* are happy - otherwise no one will be willing to underwrite the risks for an investment of this nature. Without underwriters to cover the risks - no financial support can be arranged for such a deal.

And on the other hand IPR sensitive issues have to be protected while ensuring the market opens up. I mean that both from India and NSG's perspective.

This is a high wire act of the most difficult type and I am convinced that Hon. Webmaster and Company have nothing to bring to the table on these matters.

People who do not have technical details about either risk evaluation or IPR sensitivity or market access should stop pretending that they have anything to contribute to the discussion.

All the time for general purpose awaz like "soverignity" and "death of the NPT" etc... is gone.

Everything rests on the notion of American "prestige" without it - this entire deck of cards will crash on our heads. Essentially the US set up a bunch of bizarre rules to prevent other nations from trading in nuclear technology - in order to keep those rules in place - the US arranged a payoff to these nations. That was in 1974.

Today in 2008 it has to reverse those rules. In order to make sure that the rest of the nations *allow* the US to go back and change things - these nations have to be paid off ... again.

However with the precarious state of the US economy - the US may or may not be able to arrange a payoff that satisfies everyone. That is where we have to figure out how we are going to "interface" with the nations that are unhappy with the US payoff.

Play this wrongly - and the nations will rip both the US and India off.

Now the difference between the US and these other smaller nations is that - these little nations are more likely to run to the internet and pick off some random piece of shit someone has written and use that as an excuse to shake us down.

That is why idiots have to be kept as far away from their keyboards as humanly possible.

In order to interface with the NSG - we are going to need a vast new bureaucratic machinery comparable in size to what we already have at the IAEA - this currently does not exist. The NSG countries don't have a structure to deal with us either. The chances of a miscommunication are high.

AK has said - we all need to lobby for this deal in the NSG.

The flip side of that comment is that those that don't know what that means need to make sure they don't make life difficult for the people doing "real work".

Am I being clear? - hyperactivity needs to stop and people who encourage them should be contained.

At 3:08 PM, Blogger GinC said...

Mav- thanks.
I do hope that more people listen to these things.

At 9:06 PM, Blogger powerslave said...

Maverick.. unlike gents here I am not much informed about the deal, however I am able to appreciate the point you make specially the one about NSG being a more tricky customer than the IAEA.

This imo is even more significant because there has been too much speculation about the deal being 'clean' and 'unconditional', as for now I am not concerned with latter for it is a very abstract term in itself , until the details be divulged.

From a layman's pov the very fact that world has agreed to consider India as a special case instead of
pressurising us to sign the NPT and CTBT is imo a vindication of our stand on the nuclear issue.

I am very happy about the way AK has been vocal and enthusiatic about this deal , to me this means we have already set our min. expectations and ofcourse ensure what it takes from our side to get this deal through.

--Naveen negi

At 7:01 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Naveen,

The NSG is a cartel set up to control nuclear technology. The discussions with it are of a deeply technical nature.

The overall objective on all sides is to gradually open the market for India's trade in nuclear energy related technology. This objective is necessitated by problems in Carbon energy utilisation. On the one hand India needs to diversify its base load generation options and on the other hand the rich folks based in NSG countries want to create a stable investment structure for energy utilisation in India.

Despite this overt agreement of long term objectives - there are a number of issues to sort out in the near term:

1) IPR senstivity/"No Cloning" - this applies to both India and the NSG countries - neither wants their IPR compromised in any way. For example - We don't want NSG countries to steal out breeder or thorium utilisation technologies and the NSG folks don't want us stealing their Uranium and Plutonium refinement related technologies.

2) Market access and rules - we to allow access to our market in a way that diminishes obstructive monopolistic behaviour by foreign companies. The NSG countries and the companies therein want exclusive/niche access to our market.

3) Financial stablity and Risk management options- From insurance companies to underwrite the risks to actual banks to lend the paper money needed to develop the powerplants - we need the machinery to ensure a stable financial investment structure in any deals with the NSG countries.
This means that the risks have to be kept visibly and invisibly manageable.

4) Information management: In order to communicate with the NSG countries, India needs a new bureaucracy to fill out the giga-mega-tons of paperwork that the NSG expects people to shuffle if they want anything done. For its part the NSG needs new manpower to interface with India and preferably new manpower that hasn't been fed full on the NP community's "Hate India" gospel.

There is very little in the NSG discussions that can translate into a layman's point of view.

Words like clean and unconditional can be taken to mean whatever the user wants and much irrelevant debate can be focussed on these terms.

At this point it is no longer a matter for public debate - this is now a matter of communication between the GoI and the NSG countries only.

The public at large can view the debate in the media - because ultimately the media is the only source to secure a flow of information in the absence of official channels between India and the NSG.

However - the public at large - should stay clear of inadvertant and possibly misleading participation in a technical discussion where they do not have the necessary expertise.

Professional rabble-rousers (esp. those in India) need to take note that coupling public debate to the NSG negotiations is likely to produce a completely intractable mess that will be impossible to salvage.

The public at large should be wary of people claiming deep technical insights into such matters - especially when these people have no visible credentials in the relevant technology sector.

People like Hon. Webmaster and company who seem to specialise in polluting the pool of debate on nuclear issues simply need to *stop* doing this and take responsibility for the mess they have already made.

AK has clearly said that Indians everywhere should lobby *FOR* success at the NSG. However if you do not know what constitutes
lobbying *FOR* India (eg. Hon. Webmaster and Co.) - then please keep quiet and let others who know what they are doing get on with their job.

I know that the "hands that guide" are looking to derive a position of political leverage out to pull themselves out of the recent no-confidence fiasco in the Lok Sabha ... but the NSG negotiation is the *wrong* place to go looking for this.

At 7:05 AM, Blogger maverick said...

The negotiation with the NSG is complicated enough and GoI can do without misguided and malicious idiots - espcially those from India - constantly nipping at their heels.

At 6:33 AM, Blogger maverick said...


All this indebtedness was never an obstacle to abusing the DAE before.

No one is going to believe a word that comes out of your mouth - even if it is praise.

Do you understand - you are tainted - there is no way back from here.

If you had managed the debate with greater competence there would have been a way to salvage what little h&d you had.

Now its all gone.

Take responsibility for your actions and failures and resign from the moderator post.

At 6:46 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Certain NSG countries have lost their moral standing to oppose India at the NSG because of their own inabilty to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons technology to Pakistan via the A. Q. Khan network.

These nations have themselves defaulted on the NSG guidelines to cover trade that profits their nations.

If India has to answer for what it has done to undermine the NPT despite never having signed it - the these nations have to answer for what they have done to undermine the NPT even *after* they signed it.

If tomorrow an Al Qaida nuclear bomb goes off somewhere - you can be certain that the blood of the innocent victims will stain the hands of the countries that allowed A Q Khan and friends to proliferate despite their own national obligations to the NPT and the NSG.

Given that Indian intelligence services have long targetted the Pakistani nuclear program, it is reasonable to assume that India sits on a mountain of information about the Pakistani nuclear program and its... umm.. "international links".

Pointing fingers at India and its contributions to proliferation at this point will only cause people everywhere to examine how some countries have shredded the NPT and the NSG's own rules from the inside.

At 10:00 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...


I missed the discussion on Astrology. Just as well. There is only so much nonsense one can absorb from the forum. However, I notice that the pointless rona-dhona by the likes of Phillip continues unabated. Someone should teach him how to use the space=bar -- he has no spaces after periods and commas. Would be a better use of his time compared to propagating lies like "seven percent onlee" mantra made popular by the communists.

At 10:32 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

We now want to grandly reclaim our erstwhile status of being colonial slaves,always bowing and scraping at the white man's behest,some ever ready to even clean his backside too in the bargain![/i]

Keep in mind that P. Fowler, who is a gora, is writing this shit. Does anybody besides me think that this is some hoakey BS meant to strike at the hot key of every Indian? I realize that Fowler thinks of India as his country but injecting race like this is such an obvious ploy that it is almost laughable. He seems to think that if India is making a mistep in a foreign agreement then telling everyone that India is kissing the white man's ass will stop the agreement!

Then Arun_s thanks him for telling it "like it is".

The next time a black friend of mine starts talking about electing Obama I will tell him that all that black people are acting like "slaves" because they will vote for Obama regardless that he has no policies or course of actions defined.

What do you think my black friend will think of me? But yet things like this are applauded by Arun_s ji?

At 4:55 PM, Blogger Satya Anveshi said...


So the whining and *trying* to remote control continues.

This model of running a blog, IMO, is highly unsustainable and reduces credibility of the blog. As it is, there has been no new topic from Maverick since ages and mega trolls are the only ones posting (if you exclude this post). less blog to checkout on weekends.

At 6:45 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

This business of "only a few people" in a "tight circle" knowing about the "secret" uranium survey is not so incredible after all.

Any piece of technical information is only known to a small circle to begin with. However, the incredulity surfaces later into the claims.

Firstly, what is the membership of this circle? And, how come a member of the forum is in that circle? Who makes these circles? And why are they so clueless as to include a non-expert non-related NRI into the circle for no apparent reason?

Secondly, what evidence is there that the information was withheld until after the no-confidence motion. When was this decision to withold the information made? Was it a known fact at that time that a no-confidence motion was upcoming? As far as I can recall, the no-confidence motion was only announced in early July.

Thirdly, as has been pointed out dozens of times, urnium reserves in the ground are useless for the next decade. What are the concentrations? How deep are the veins? How accessible is the region to be mined? There are so many questions to be answered before one can even speak of the utility of this uranium to India's electricity generation in the next decade.

Fourthly, even if there was an attempt to suppress this news, I can see why that was a sane decision. The jumping brigade would have cried hoarse about "we don't need no uranium imports" much like "we have all this thorium to burn". The debate would have been derailed much like it was on the forum. One can not assume that everyone will handle the information responsibly.

So, bottom line is that all this news of uranium reserves is of very little consequence to real term energy issues for at least a decade.

AK's charts can not be easily wished away. Of course, the drone visitors from the forum will pretend that they are not interested but continue to read in lurk mode.

Chalo, that is actually a good thing.

At 7:45 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

It is very very difficult to appreciate this:

"I had known for many months, of the addition 75,000 tonne Indian Uranium reserve, but then since mai baap had all the data and not a free-bird like me I had to keep my peace."

When it was so easy to yell from a soap-box that GigaBoom was FizzleToon, why this coyness and "keeping peace" over simple matters like tonnage of U/Th in the dirt of India?

At 8:35 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

>>You have no clue who this "Ravi CV" was in the first place - and for all you know he could have been a left front provocation specifically designed to screw the BJP or he could have been a NPA plant designed to provoke discussions on India's nuclear options.

Knowing how many avatars Vishnu have taken to do many things, is there any doubt on who RaviCV really was?

parithraaNaaya saadhuunaam
vinaaSaaya cha duSHkr^thaam
dharmma samsthhaapanaarthhaaya
sambhavaami yugE yugE

At 8:10 AM, Blogger GinC said...

Prof T. Astrological thread is still in trash folder in DF. One thing I did not know was IsharaMaster is True Believer.

At 8:44 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

Prof T. Astrological thread is still in trash folder in DF. One thing I did not know was IsharaMaster is True Believer.

Because he thinks it's Indic.

At 10:12 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Hello ginc,

Thanks for the pointer.


Folks in that thread are discussing jyotish which is indeed Indic and unique.


Now, I see that the entire discussion was centered on non-issues. This is quite common because the objections are not justified properly.

In this instance, I will have to disagree with my scientific friends like Gerard and Amber who approached the subject with an assumption that the *physical* celestial bodies were somehow involved in jyotish.

I believe that it is only their *position* in the sky that is important. Jyotish is based on an elaborate calendar which has time cycles that span millions of years. By locating the position of planets against a backdrop of fixed stars (constellations), one can find the phase in a complicated set of nested cosmic cycles.

This part is basic FACT.

Now, one can hold beliefs that certain phases (as depicted by unique alignments) are auspicious.
I have nothing to say to that.

Anyhow, one must be careful not to bring in extraneous physics (like Vishwakarmaa with his cosmic rays) into the mix.

He alludes to ignorance of physics in order to support his view that here may be new phenomena that science is unaware of as of now. Well, this blanket argument works for each and every pet theory one can come up with. It *does not* support causality of human action based on the phase in a cosmic time cycle.

By the way, I find something else fascinating about some of the cycles in Indic thought that have counterparts in science, and that is this: "how did these ancients measure these cycles which are much longer than typical life-span of a human?" There probably were schools of astronomy that kept good records. However, they did not have telescopes so what did they use at night? (during the day they could use sun-dials etc).

Anyway, let's not get distracted into discussions of astrology on maverick's blog.

At 10:39 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

One more point to help establish the *non-physical* nature of the planets' role in jyotish.

As you know, there are nine "planets" in jyotish: Sun, Moon, Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Rahu, Ketu.

So, what are Rahu and Ketu? Do they have western counterparts?

Well, Rahu and Ketu are *virtual "planets"*. See below:

From wikipedia:

"Astronomically, Rahu and Ketu denotes the two points of intersection of the paths of the Sun and the Moon as they move on the celestial sphere. Therefore, Rahu and Ketu are respectively called the north and the south lunar nodes. The fact that Eclipses occur when Sun and Moon are at one of these points gives rise to the myth of the swallowing of the Sun."

So the Nine "planets" have no physical relevance.

They are basically a nine-fold set of coordinates that undergo periodic motion.

This also explains why in jyotish it is important to note the *place* on planet earth when events take place, because corrections have to be made for apparent position of rahu, ketu etc.

[by the way, when folks speak of ancient astrnomers in India and how advanced they were, just ask them this: "how advanced do you have to be to explain eclipses, for example, as overlap of Rahu with the Moon or some such?" Clearly they did not explain eclipses as shadows of the earth. Why not?]

At 10:53 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...


Wiki has everything! I even found a page on the "correction factor" known as Ayanamsa. This explains the sidereal zodiac as used in Jyotish as opposed to the tropical zodiac used in Astrology.

ok, enough on this stuff.

At 11:15 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

At 11:17 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

So, I did some googling. It turns out that Aryabhata had figured out the eclipses around 500 AD. He is also credited with figuring out the heliocentric model and sidereal time.

However, this is all astronomy. When it comes to astrology, jyotish speaks of Bandhu or a connection between the macrocosm and microcosm. I don't know anything about that.

At 11:32 AM, Blogger GinC said...

Don’t want to get too distracted by astronomy/astrology - there are many good references – but to answer a few Q/points:
how did these ancients measure these cycles which are much longer than typical life-span of a human?" There probably were schools of astronomy that kept good records. However, they did not have telescopes so what did they use at night?
Even without telescopes one can get accuracy of .001 (or even a little better – may be up to .0002 radians) radians in angles by measuring shadows (in day) or having larger structure and watching things wrt to them If you have hundreds of years of records (In India’s case, experts suspect – some old records were available to some of the famous astronomers or the yore) - not necessary continues - you can get pretty accurate values. For example, If you know exact direction of sunrise – or simply the delta between sunrise directions on vernal equinoxes of two sunrises say 100 years (exact 35625 days apart ) you can pretty accurate value of tropical year (accuracy of 1/100000 or better of a day)

Agree that they had some old records, and some of them were quite good scientist too, who believed in measuring things

At 8:02 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

My grandfather believed in planting by phases of the moon. He believed everything ran in seven year cycles. He believed the law was crooked and politicians generally corrupt. My grandfather and I shared the same religion but not the same views. I believe in the scientific method. I believe education is the key to enlightment and a force against corruption. I respected my grandfather but he was a product of his times. My grandchildren, if I ever have any, will probably feel the same way about me. Be that as it may, I can not and I will not suscribe to any predictions or predictors that cannot survive the scrutiny of the scientific method.

At 9:17 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...


I don't disagree with you at all.

In fact, at the root of all this "predicting" business is the fundamental question of whether the universe is deterministic or probabilistic.

Jyotish and other forms of astrology, by their very nature, have to subscribe to the deterministic view.

This may be fine for macroscopic objects. For example, I can "predict" with very good accuracy the time of sunrise tomorrow. In a loose sense, this is where jyotish and science are in complete agreement.

The methods may be different, but agrement nevertheless. Science knows the dynamics of the sun-earth system so it can predict. The Jyotishis have detailed tables arrived at by empirical observations. Both methods give the same answer.


The reason is that the system in question is inherently periodic, i.e., cyclic.

The differences arise when the question of Bandhu, i.e., a connection is postulated. Science has no knowledge of any such connection.

Also, there is no evidence that biological systems are cyclic in nature. Many in India believe in a Karmic periodical system with reincarnation and what not, with zero evidence of course.

[FWIW, belief in a linear system with birth leading to heaven/hell etc is equally bogus.]

The prevailing scientific view is that biological systems are purely probabilistic. Darvin started this view and in all the years leading up to today's advances in genetics, there has been no evidence (that I am aware of) to disprove the probabilistic interpretation.

The fact that quantum mechanics has been so successful at the microscopic level adds to the belief that deterministic views are wrong.

The closest I have seen anything to a Bandhu is the "large N theorem" in physics. However, that finds the limit of the microscopic into the macroscopic. Bandhu, OTOH, claims the reverse connection.

Bottomline? View astrology and/or Jyotish with extreme skepticism.

At 10:10 PM, Blogger Raju said...

how did these ancients measure these cycles which are much longer than typical life-span of a human?" There probably were schools of astronomy that kept good records. However, they did not have telescopes so what did they use at night?

Prof ji, it is quite easy to answer.

Look at the recorded life span of Maya Danava. He was there in Treta when his daughter Mandodari married Ravana.

He was also there in Dwapara when he built the palace at Indraprastha at the behest of Krishna.

So this one entity has spanned through yugas. And so has his knowledge which he passed down to his followers. It is from there that we derive our gyaan of planets.

At 10:14 PM, Blogger Raju said...

According to historical records of the Vedic culture, Maya Danava’s influence on man was prevailing for 8000 years. But at the same time, he is described as a being from another planetary system who is equipped with all sorts of mystic powers and with an astronomic life span. Had the same Maya Danava first worked as an architect in South India and published Vedic texts in order to contribute later to the development of the Maya Culture in Central America, which shows a number of similarities with the Vedic India also in fields different from architecture?

It is also very interesting to have a closer look at a linguistic comparison. Even today there are a number of words in the Maya language which indicate a relation to the Vedic culture. The Maya word K’ultanlini refers to the divine power and has obvious similarities to the Sanskrit word Kundalini which also refers to the life power and the power of consciousness.

The Sanskrit term yoga can be found again in the Maya word Yok’hah, which means at the top of truth. For our considerations, it is most interesting to investigate the connection between the Maya word Chilambalam which is the name for the temple room of the caste-pyramid Chichen Itza. This pyramid has the same plot as a South Indian temple vimana. Both are based on a grid consisting of 8 x 8 squares.

At 11:12 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...


I was looking for answers that did not involve mythical personalities or lifeforms capable of an 8000 year life span.

While I am quite open to suggestion, one has to draw the line somewhere.

Now, can we somehow break the 7th wkt partnership?

At 11:43 PM, Blogger Raju said...

yes, there are fundamental problems in believing these things.

At 11:48 PM, Blogger Raju said...

In Christianity, it is said that mankind was helped in his formative years on earth through beings called 'fallen angels'. I am sure it is their way of explaining phenomenon as Maya dude.

all stories and native accounts all over the world give similar descriptions.

hearing and believing in these philosophies is slightly unnerving to the mango man who then begins to realize his own helplessness in the scheme of things. An old dog cannot unlearn his old tricks and learn new ones without undergoing significant flux.

At 10:12 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

For what it is worth, the Ishara-wadis on the forum have taken on a positive spin lately. What happened? Why the sudden change in attitude?

Some like sraj are still clueless but others like ShauryaT and Ramana are bleating positive notes?

What gives? Where is all the vitriol? Has "sellout" been relegated to the backburner?

Enquiring minds want to know.

At 10:16 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Here is a victory for Astrology.

As most had predicted, there would be no apology from the clueless Ishara-wadis. They would just pick up and start with a new Ishara Theory.

Why am I not surprised?

At 3:21 AM, Blogger Spock said...

Mani_Tripathi said...
Some like sraj are still clueless but others like ShauryaT and Ramana are bleating positive notes?

What gives? Where is all the vitriol? Has "sellout" been relegated to the backburner?

Enquiring minds want to know.

Mani Jee,

If you remember ShauryaT was willing to bet that there would be conditions attached to NSG.

Ramana on the other hand is willing to bet that there would be no conditions attached.

I wonder are they betting against each other?

Enquiring minds want to know.

The intelligent ones are backtracking now so that they don't appear out of sync. The clueless ones off course remain clueless. :-)

At 3:26 AM, Blogger Spock said...

Raju said...
yes, there are fundamental problems in believing these things.

Perhaps a small dialectic problem? But that shouldn't crimp the style of a dyed in the wool Comrade should it?

At 7:42 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Satya anveshi,

I predict by looking at the position of Mars in the panchang that you will return - like you always do.

At 11:28 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

Yes, it wants to check here and see what is being said about its avatar on BRF.

At 11:28 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Mani,

The outcome in the parliament appears to have poured cold water on most of the hot heads.

It is a moment of soberiety that I feel will soon give way to more indecency.

How long this misguided celebration of youth will continue on the forum, I cannot say but what has just left us will return as the election draws nearer.

At 11:42 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Astrology - as I am learning the course of arranging a relative's marriage - is a very significant communication issue in India.

Apart from providing an obvious sense of psychological support when difficult and life changing decisions have to be made. An astrological mismatch is a polite way of conveying a lack of interest between parties. It allows parties to leave the transaction without losing face too much in the community.

The utterly infuriating aspect is when people talk about this matter as if astrology is real - instead of openly discussing the issues that visibly lie beneath.

A groom or bride or parent or (in my case - a poor and unwilling) middleman who refuses to talk astrological gibberish risks disrespecting tradition and the politeness norms.

Coming from the non-traditionalist black sheep side of a clan of purebloods - this middleman business has been even more dangerous and life threatening than that ST bus ride to I took from Khopoli to Chiplun once.

After enduring this for the past few weeks I am now wishing I was in the Chairman's shoes in Vienna or the Big Boss's shoes in New Delhi instead of dealing with any more astrologers!

Those who think BR has nothing to do with the real world have no idea how close to home this cuts.

Have I let out too much? I doubt it - I just can't see Langley's best and brightest reaching for Linda Goodman's sun signs soon.

At 12:26 PM, Blogger maverick said...

A taxi driver recently asked me my opinion on Gen. Musharraf's condition.

I replied that I have no opinion and having an opinion on this issue at this sensitive a time - would constitute a grave intrusion into Pakistan's internal affairs.

I could never presume to do such a thing - especially when the entire fate of something as dear to me as the Khilafa Point oil refinery lies in the balance.

At 8:54 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

>>>>>>>> An astrological mismatch is a polite way of conveying a lack of interest between parties. It allows parties to leave the transaction without losing face too much in the community.

Hi Mav,

That is an interesting point. I wish we had such a facility in the western world.

On occasion, we all have to make difficult choices. It would be so easy if we could just say: "Sorry, nothing personal, but my astrologer advised me against such action. What can I do onlee?"


At 7:55 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Mani,

You are right - such a facility is not available in the rest of the world.

In America for example - astrological excuses have to be replaced by more technical sounding ones.

For example when dodging work you don't want to do in India it may be okay to say -

"Ah.. the passage of Venus through the 8th position in the chart and the close proximity of Saturn to the 6th place makes this an inopportune time to do this .."

but in the US you have to say things like -

"My Windows Vista won't let me run my MS Powerpoint 2007 button that accesses this feature and the Java thingy keep crashing because of some bizarre memory error at hex location which I don't recall being assigned anywhere in my registry. I'll keep trying but this doesn't look too good right now."

This is what makes the US "high tech workplace with cool buttons" and India "a poor backward bullock cart ridden country that believes in astrology".

I can just see the Indians manning a nuclear tipped missile poring over their astrological charts trying to figure out where Rahu is while Americans in their Minuteman silos sit tapping their fingers on their laptops wondering why Vista takes so long to boot...

At 8:29 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Once again - the wording of things at the NSG has to be such that Indians and Americans and (if need be) Martians feel comfortable with what is being said.

If Indians are not comfortable - they will walk away.

If the Americans are not comfortable - it will be impossible to raise capital for the purchases.

If the Martians are not comfortable they will send giant walkers with laser guns to depopulate the earth.

Trying to stick things in there at this late hour will only cause it to fall apart *right* there.

The media reports are our only window into what is going on in 45 NSG members states as we do not have official representation inside the NSG.

Observer status cannot allows us to build the level of information management that we need to make an effective presentation at the NSG - so that is useless from our perspective.

People without the necessary technical background - especially political hacks who pass themselves off as "nuclear experts" and are currently unemployed after their failure in parliament should stop trying to read into media reports.

You are not helping India by pulling distracting bullshit out of your tashreefs and generally spin doctoring for want of something to do.

If you want to help please carefully read anything the media writes about this topic and flag anything that seems like a technical point to you.

If you can't do that - then the best way to please keep quiet and let the ones who can help get on with it.

At 10:30 AM, Blogger Raju said...

the 'caucusus crisis' thread
might be of interest to ralphy.

At 1:42 PM, Blogger dilbert said...

the 'caucusus crisis' thread
might be of interest to ralphy.

Why just ralphy? It is of interest to many people, including me.

At 7:42 PM, Blogger Raju said...

yes, you can see forum member Vick committing suicide.

he takes 8 yrs to build his rep, and wants to destroy it all in a flash of blaze or anger. Probably after appointment of new Bannerjee's his mind isn't in it anymore and he has shed presumed neutrality.

At 7:43 PM, Blogger Raju said...

maths thread in Tech phorum proves that BRF still has its odd science wiz.

vsunder garu for instance is in a world of his own. A great mathematician nevertheless.

At 8:08 AM, Blogger maverick said...


I was recently asked what would happen if Pakistan suddenly tested its nuclear weapons - the question was raised in the context of Gen. Musharraf's shrinking options at this time in Pakistan.

I replied that I personally felt that if the US could not stop Pakistani proliferation, then that would constitute a siginficant change in the security environment of the Indian subcontinent. Such a material shift would be sufficient cause for all nations in the region to review their security postures.

As repeated disclosures relating to the A Q Khan network indicate - a number nations in the NSG have in the past - encouraged and enabled adventurist thinking in Pakistan - the motivations of their conduct at the time were never understood. It remains to be seen if any nations inside the NSG overtly/covertly chose to encourage Pakistani nuclear testing.

Any such actions by NSG member states would amount to a depature from the informal post 9-11 consensus on doing everything humanly possible to keep weapons out of the hands of terrorists.

Not that I anticipate General Musharraf taking such a step - however the questions was asked and I answered it as best I could.

At 8:38 AM, Blogger maverick said...


On the astrology front.

My relative asked me "why do people believe in astrological stuff in India".

The best I could come up with was this:

Agroeconomic activity centers around timescales that can be tracked using astrophysical events - like differences in the precession frequencies of orbits etc... In the age before atomic metrology - astronomical metrology was considered a very reliable option.

The "science" of Astrology involves connecting the agroeconomic timescales with astronomic metrology. It is likely that as long as the metrological was conducted properly and economic patterns were stable - a relatively scientific and reliable way of predicting agroeconomic activity existed. This is the best explanation for why Indian kings felt the need to create large observatories and chronometery laboratories like Jantar Mantar etc...

The extention of the astrological prediction schemes to other aspects of culture *may* have drawn upon percieved successes of such techniques at the economic level.

The modern day innovations which appear to cater primarily to urban audiences seem mostly to be exercises in psywar and perception management.

The "new age" astrologers - in my opinion - most like draw upon the imprints of an agricultural past that pervades urbanised populations in India.

I admit I pulled this out of my ass - so feel to trash it.

However it remains the only pragmatic explanation that I can come up with for why a family of computer engineers educated in the US now settled in India - insists on seeing my relative's panchang/horoscope before seeing a CV/resume and despite the fact that the bride and groom appear to obviously like each other.

At 11:33 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Hi Mav,

Now that I think about it, the knowledge of Rahu-Ketu must have been a very very powerful psychological tool in the old days.

The Rahu-Ketu cycle is not at all obvious to casual opbservers. Hence, the Jyotishi, who could predict eclipses, must have been revered as a truly wise man.

[of course, he probably did not let on that he was merely reading a table of numbers.]

With such an aura of "ability to predict the future", it is easy to see how they started predicting other things as well.

If it rained coincidentally when the astrologer predicted it, of course he got the glory.

If it failed to rain, of course it was the villagers' fault for having upset Indra. And, of course, they should indulge in some big prayer to appease Indra etc etc.

So, the question really is about why so-called modern educated folks believe in astrology.

At 11:42 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...


Thanks for the pointer to the Math thread. It is too bad that two senior professors had a misunderstanding. Prof. Chanillo has indeed done some pioneering work. Probably so has Amber but difficult to say without any references.

At 1:01 PM, Blogger maverick said...

I am watching the "Unravelling the Indian psyche" thread.

It seems to be an thinly veiled exploration of why the Jammu agitation failed to raise the communal temperature in the rest of India.

At 7:12 PM, Blogger Raju said...

actually poster Raji came in shiv's thread of Islamic Indic perceptions and started talking of Indian psychological deficiencies.

what feels like a rope to some, may also resemble an elephants tail to others. It's all a matter of perception.

At 11:49 AM, Blogger maverick said...

So what is the consensus in the Caucasus thread?

Russians don't like things being shipped in the Black Sea without their notice?

At 11:50 AM, Blogger maverick said...


When I want to find out what certain people are up to - I visit the Islamism thread.

At 4:39 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

The board is back to navel-gazing for a while. The shrillness will pick up around the NSG meet.

In the interim, folks have reaffirmed that they are mostly upper caste NRI hindus.

At 8:30 PM, Blogger dilbert said...

The board is back to navel-gazing for a while. The shrillness will pick up around the NSG meet.


Whining about the putative NSG agreement has started already. Ishaara Master is saying clause 2(g) is unacceptable and India should walk out of the negotiations. The Rothschild-watcher agrees with him. The rest of the Whine Crowd is silent so far, but I'm sure it won't take them long to chime in.

At 9:42 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

I suppose you are right. Arnab has been beaten into silence for asking a kindergarten question of folks who write tomes about nothing.

Yes, the drama has started already. Watch out for the Latin to break out soon.

It is my de jure prediction that de facto there will be some ipso facto suo moto hocus pocus bandied about.

Why can't folks answer arnab in simple English without wearing any headgear?

At 9:46 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

"India saying something can be subject to change based on excigencies but when its in a multilateral agreement even if its the same statement it acquires its own dynamics and is tantamount to lockdown. I think I am being very clear and consistent about this."

It is about as clear as split pea soup. Follow the clarity here:

1. A multilateral statement acquires its own dynamics.

2. hocus-pocus.

3. It is tantamount to lockdown.

If someone has a "clear and consistent" understanding of the Isharaa in step 2 above, please post it here.

At 9:52 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

And by the way, an answer should not consist of directing me to read some arcane book by someone who lived in 1939.

Similarly, an answer containing Rothschild/Rockefeller will be dismissed, even if Mr. Rothschild or Mr. Rockefeller themselves were to post it.

Some of you may recall that I had offered to make a wager with ShauryaT. I even forget the terms of the bet, but I am sure that I won, simply because ShauryaT conveniently has forgotten about it.

However, he has not missed an opportunity to post about his latest bet.

How many lost bets will it take to have some folks shut up with their nonsense?

At 10:16 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

The one-two punch. How's this one-liner for adding GigaClarity:

"It is a blackmail"

I am swayed immensely. One more Ishara and I could be convinced.

At 8:47 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Taking of the Forum 1-2-3.

1. hocus-pocus tantamount to lockdown.

2. blackmail onlee

3. cartel where only 3 matter

Run India, Run! Or, the Hyde Monster will get ya!!

At 10:31 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

At 11:14 PM, Blogger dilbert said...

I don't see why 2(g) should be a deal-breaker -- de facto, de jure, suo moto or hello moto.

At 12:30 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

There is a bet on offer that there will be no 40 GWe nuke power by 2020. I agree with this statement and can not take up the bet.

I offer another bet instead: In 2020, DF will still be arguing about "estoppel" suo moto ipso facto nota bano de jure reducto ad absurdum.

At 9:12 PM, Blogger dilbert said...

The forum is back to full whine mode. Estoppel and Clause 2(g) are the things they are complaining about now. And of the course the Honourable Webmaster is whining about AK's Powerpoint presentation.

At 8:28 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

I'm thinkin' here lately that there are positives coming out of the Georgia-Russia brouhaha....:->

Evolving Obama now supports $2 billion more for NASA
In contrast to his earlier views on space exploration, Democrat also says he backs one more shuttle mission before it is retired

At 11:05 PM, Blogger mukunda said...

Hi M,
Can you comment on what is happening on Kashmir front?
1) Isn't this orachestrated to keep one man in power?
2) Will this tamasha last till India gains entry into NSG?

At 7:10 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Mukunda,

I don't want to comment on the Kashmir thing. There are too many people interested in using Kashmir to raise the communal temperature of the rest of the country prior to an election. It is hard to blame one man for all this when... so many others are willingly helping him out. Given the enthusiasm for troublemaking prior to elections I intend to give it a wide berth.

I think the NSG related tamasha will end when the negotiations conclude.

I see that the forum is again sliding back to a politicised discussion of the NSG negotiations. Again the threads are being polluted by utter rubbish.

It is sad to see that things are proceeding this way.

At 7:54 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hon. Webmaster and friends are trying to make testing the main issue again.

There is no room for such ill informed commentary at this time.

I once again petition the concerned moderators to please resign and save us the trouble of having to see a more glorious humiliation.

Arnab's summary is very good.

At 7:56 AM, Blogger maverick said...

The desire to keep testing at the focus of affairs ties in the RaviCV inspired roots of this mess.

At 10:07 AM, Blogger maverick said...


The entire NSG negotiation is a highly technical discussion.

It does not matter what random people think of words like "clean", "unconditional" and "clear".

This is only a conversation between people who are directly affected by such language.

Rabble rousing about things like this is a waste of everyones time - no political capital is to be made here.

I feel the Pakistanis may have inserted themselves into the situation when the agreed to bring A. Q. K's network "under control". This is the extent of Pakistan's "adherence" to NSG norms.

At 10:24 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

hey ,
I have again been thinking about the PWR vs PHWR debate.

given that its only japan steel works and a small facility in russia make vessels and they may max make 12 a year between themselves is the LWR route the best idea?

At 10:48 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

okay Cruesot forge will also chip in , so make that figure say 14 a year

At 11:14 AM, Blogger maverick said...

The proponents of the multilateral non-proliferation regime seem to be concerned that other countries will attempt to emulate India and seek to do an end run around the NPT.

At 11:24 AM, Blogger maverick said...


Hon. Webmaster fancies himself as a betting man now. Having failed in the earlier effort of projecting himself as a nuclear expert - the Hon. Webmaster now seeks to take bets on Indians failing to achieve its goals so as to raise his own profile again.

Per this grand plan the Hon. Webmaster will rise from the ashes when hundreds and thousands of DAE scientists slaving away for the better part of two decades will have failed?

When will this nonsense end?

Is this what moderation at BR has reduced to?

At 11:36 AM, Blogger dilbert said...

Arnab's summary is very good.

Yes, and that is precisely why poor Arnab is in danger of getting an admonition along the lines of "Rangudu, don't be shrill".

IMO Ishaara-master is on the borderline of saying "all pro-deal views please shut up. This thread is only for deal-bashers", or words to that effect. The panicky and paranoid legalistic nit-picking about estoppel is insane.

At 1:54 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Dilbert,

After having given themselves many nobel prizes and generally distinguished themselves in the field of nuclear bomb physics - Hon. Webmaster and friends are now attempting to show the world of law a thing or two by using words like "Estoppel".

Now we kick off our shoes and watch another superb fiasco develop on the forum as Hon. Webmaster leads his flock into the valley of legally inspired brain death.

At 4:16 PM, Blogger Mullah Aalloak-uz-amman bin Ghazi said...

Just finished watching the video of the general's goodbye -- Jigar sahab may have said this for this occasion:

teri qasam arae o jald roothanevaalae
guroor-e-ishq na tha naaz-e-aashiqaanaa tha

At 4:53 PM, Blogger maverick said...

At the end of the speech one thing was clear - even Musharraf can resign but Hon. Webmaster and co will not relinquish power no matter how egregious their conduct.

At 7:52 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

I see that there is discussion of ENR, or reprocessing tech. In principle, India has mastered PUREX which separates Pu from U. This is adequate for PHWR which use natural U as fuel.

When it comes to imported LWR and enriched U fuels, there may be extra factors. For example, "poison" nuclei may be added so as to make it PUREX proof -- nuclei with the same chemistry as Pu would make good poisons. However, there may be techniques for eliminating the poisons which are probably protected.

This is a wild guess, so take it for what its worth.

Also, Ms. rotflmao and Mr. Ghazi,

Please refrain from needless speculation. I have never encountered any difficulty with Indian immigration. No need to spread rumors.

In fact, I will be traveling to India this winter and hopefully meet with the Man Who Walks on Water.


I have a suggestion for you. These useless posts by Ms. rotflmao do not add to the discussion and surely do not enhance your blog's reputation. I would suggest that you simply delete these useless posts. Thanks.

At 6:56 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Mani,

Deleted per your request.

At 7:14 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...


Coming back to ENR, it may be that the focus is only on enrichment. The angst may be about exporting centrifuges to India. I am not aware of how Indian centrifuges compare with those in the West, so I can't say which technology transfer is being discussed. Some folks may be concerned that with Indian jugaad, any tech transfer will benefit RMP.

At 7:24 AM, Blogger maverick said...


No one has said anything about 2g. All that has been said is that the word unilateral is not the same as multilateral.

The emphasis on ENR from a "reactor" specific angle is something that makes sense from the NP community because they are convinced that making the ENR export conditional will force India to divulge the nature of its waste fuels and this will allow them to estimate India's fissile material stockpile.

In a wider context ENR is about improving India's energy security by speeding up the process of making more breeder reactors.

Outside the non proliferation perspective - I suspect the opposition to ENR related sales stems from two sources: Uranium suppliers and Uranium refiners.

From the perspective of Uranium suppliers - allowing India to build reprocessing technology reduces its import dependence. This cuts into the suppliers profitability - they can't randomly jack up prices for us.

Allowing India to build enrichment capacity kills the profitability of things like Urenco's centrifugation racket.

As demonstrated in the case of MTCR - India is willing to accomodate imposing behaviour from random nobodies if and only if it helps preserve the nobody's fragile ego and ensures that the nobody does not put his ass exactly where India wants to put her foot.

In the case of small nations like New Zealand and the Netherlands, there is a deep sense of irrelevance on the international stage that is due in part to the manner in which bigger nations simply ignore what these people have to say. It really bruises their ego to see larger nations behave this way and so there is trend towards vocalising such angst in a bid to get it out of their system.

This kind of vocalisation has a dual purpose - it serves to create a fig leaf under which past acts of monumental stupidity can be brushed.

China would probably deal with this differently than India. I mean if either NZ or the Netherlands were to ever mouth off against China, they would suddenly find Dutch and NZ importers having to fill out 900 new forms in Chinese at Shanghai port. Or the Chinese would simply raid the hotels of their atheletes in Beijing and find steroids and narcotics on their person. So neither the NZ nor the Netherlands would ever dare mouth off against the Chinese.

We Indians - we are a kinder - gentler people. We will let the folks of NZ and the Netherlands do their little bit of performance art and then watch humbly as the rest of the world - again - ignores them.

Ofcourse if any technology is forbidden to us - then it is likely that we will not be importing it and that means we will enhance our efforts at developing it. After we have developed - the nations that sought to restrict our access to it for commercial reasons will lose leverage.

At 7:48 AM, Blogger maverick said...


That was a long post.

Let me summarise.

Unilateral does not mean multilateral because someone wrote something on a piece of paper that we never signed.

We want ENR imports to boost our breeder programs and drive our thorium utilisation and not to make weapons. Yes Uranium producers and refiners will find that thought discomforting but we have our needs and they have theirs.

NZ and the Dutch can mouth off to save face nationally - after all what else can they do?

Anything that is denied to us - we will make ourselves. Once we make - we won't need to buy it from others.

At 2:05 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Rotflmao,

Or it could be that I am deleting the information because it is false.

If I leave false information out here then I risk accusation of libel.

More generally I don't appreciate this place being used to fish out personal information about people.

An anonymous handle is a pretty poor way to protect oneself from counter scrutiny.

At 5:17 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Ah, so Ms. rotflmao posted something else, it seems. Pathetic, I would think.

>>>>>> An anonymous handle is a pretty poor way to protect oneself from counter scrutiny.

Exactly. It is difficult to sue an anonymous person for libel. So, the website becomes the target.

Look up the case of Laurence Godfrey who sued an ISP and won. This was a landmark case because it was the first internet related litiation.

Laurence and I worked together in Hamburg for a while, so I am quite familiar with the case.

Of course, if people simply decided to be decent human beings there would be no need for laws.

At 9:06 PM, Blogger GinC said...

With reference to Math forum on DF - Looks like Vsunder has lot of fans.. everyone is begging for him to stay

Prof T - did you check out what the whole thing . as far as I can see, Vsunder's parts/references (there is no relationship between them and what is being discussed there) Things look very weird

At 9:38 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

At 9:50 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...


I did glance at the thread but personally, I have no interest in that sort of stuff.

I am a physicist, and physics is a science of observables. None of that lemma stuff is about observables as far as I can tell.

Once in a blue moon mathematics fusthers the cause of physics, mostly out of sheer luck. The best case I can think of is when Dirac predicted the positron based on his mathematics -- turned out that his answer was actually wrong (in terms of conservation of probability current) and Feynman fixed it. In any case, it was lucky.

For every useful mathematical theory, there are about 1,000,000 useless ones. So, as a physicist, I have little use for the "predictive" power of math. Once a phenomenon is discovered, finding suitable math for it is a relevant task and there are thousands of mathematicians to do that job.

The bottomline is that a physicist is better off worrying about natural phenomena than fooling around with math.

This is only my view. Most will disagree with me because they have fanciful notions like superstrings, quantum gravity, and what not. These things add this much to reality: zip, zero, nada.

I see that Amber has posted a very fine defense. I have to agree. I read that problem in question and it made very little sense to me. The wording was quite confusing. Amber asked for clarifications, in a somewhat jocular manner I might add, but still it was not an insulting post.

But then , what can one expect from admins like Shiv who themselves pride in revealing personal information and playing juvenile games of pop-psychology. Of course, they will get it all wrong and pick on the party who is not ensconsed in their political view and petty forum dealings.

Seriously, the forum is a waste of time. After having exposd their lies and pointing out the damage that they have caused (Maverick has made a rigirous case of it), I doubt that there is much else to be said.

I will probably wrap up this line of commentary and stop visiting that website. The strategic thinking is sub-par over there. For economic/tech news, I find that SkyScraperCity has superior content.

Bottomline, tomorrow may well be the day to move on if, InshAllah, NSG negotiations are over.


At 6:20 AM, Blogger maverick said...


Does NZ export anything remotely related to nuclear technology?

I was reading up on the "Rainbow Warrior" affair and it occured to me that NZ has no nuclear/ sensitive tech exports of its own. Their participation in the NSG is limited to not acting as an intermediary in exports to the third parties.

At 12:30 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Seriously, what does NZ know abut security of a nation?

No one, not even a pirate navy that lost its way, actually considers attacking NZ and looting them of their sheep.

How will such a country ever understand the neighborhood India lives in?

I mean these are the same guys who left Karachi in the middle of a tour because a bomb went off a couple of miles away. They are refusing to play in the Champions Trophy in Pakistan.

So, what advice do these jokers have for a country with a 1000 mile border with that same Pakistan? Sheesh.

At 6:31 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Wow.. NZ et al are mounting a serious show.

At 8:10 AM, Blogger maverick said...

India will not accept any terms and conditions on anything pertaining to its security and neither will the US.

All this talk of CTBT coming into force is bullshit. Not even the US wants the CTBT to come into force.

Nations that have no economic stake in nuclear commerce will not be allowed to keep destroying opportunities for other countries whose economies are in dire need of it.

Out of the spirit of diplomatic nicety, a revised draft is possible but the clock is ticking from this moment on.

If the revised draft fails to gain an NSG approval - then the NSG will split.

Long before the first shipment of NSG Uranium reaches India's shores or the first Areva nuclear reactor is built in India - Rep. Markey and Rep. Tauscher's fears about nuclear instabilty in Pakistan are more likely to be realised on account of a potential tussle over the nuclear trigger between the Army, Zardari, Nawaz Sharif and the Mullahs.

Stupidity has an extremely high price.

It pays to avoid it.

At 3:52 PM, Blogger maverick said...


I have commented on Siddharth Vardarajan's blog.

At 1:55 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

The Pak ambassador to the US is actually a reasonable fellow. This video is quite interesting:

At 8:24 AM, Blogger maverick said...

The sickening cycle of back biting proceeds.

After having lavished false praise the DAE leadership for making a stance at the NSG - the Hon. Webmaster and friends are now positioning themselves to look like they "predicted" the present state of "failure" at the NSG.

Somehow in the eyes of Hon. Webmaster and company magically - this "failure" is India's fault - the result of " Neither protecting Indian interests this way, nor that way."

And ofcourse - there is the great question which has been burning in their minds for the better part of two years - "Why do "mujra" when there was nothing preventing going to the water-hole in the first place?"

One more time I will try to explain this.

The dollar is becoming worthless. In order to support the US economy - the US govt has few alternatives to printing more dollars.

We have to get the best value for our dollars. The only way to do this - is to take them back to the source - the USG itself and buy something from them. By locking the dollars down into an actual purchase - we ensure their value upto whatever contractual renegotiation clauses that are inserted.

Sure we can buy some useless crap like the Kitty hawk or C-130s or F-18Is etc... but frankly outside of giving some people on the forum something to beat off to - this stuff isn't going to be any good to the rest of India. We simply won't have the diesel to make these weapons work!

It is all good and fine to run down Atomic Energy in India - and to say things like - "Hay but $100Bn of imported LWR contract and $300Bn of imported Uranium business on public fund/public guaranteed loan, creates lots of opportunities and vested interest. Like selling snake oil to a snake charmer who already has enough oil for his needs."

But why does the Hon. Webmaster find this surprising? - given that India imports coal despite having some of the largest proven reserves of coal in the world!

Or is there a similar rationale for importing Uranium that the Hon. Webmaster is keen not to see.

I grow progressively tired of this entire nonsense.

The gulf between the Forum and valued contributors has been caused by the behaviour of specific people *on* the forum itself and not by people like me.

I do not need to name anyone - because these offensive people on the forum are - because they know who they are. And it is their deeply felt sense of shame that forces them to try to deflect blame to others for their own misconduct.

If only the forum was not populated by the purveyors of escaltory rhetorical nonsense - then perhaps valuable contributors might even return.

But for that to happen - the people who instigate politically motivated attacks on the forum should be ejected from it - regardless of their apparent ranks inside the articificial hierarchy of the forum.

At 8:51 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Mani,

Yes, he is a piece of work.

Of all the arrows in Aabpara's infinite arsenal - he is the exceptionally sharp one.

His entire point of attack in the US revolves the idea he prosletyses -

That all domestic players in Pakistan have realised that discord strengthens authoritarian forces. And authoritarians have realised the excessive coercion breeds the very chaos they seek to control.

This idea he claims is the reason why the future will be different from the past and why people should invest their time (and money) in folks like him who predict such a future.

Unlike Musharraf who shed his uniform for the odd suit and tie now and then - the namesake of the great martyr acts as if he was born into both. Beneath the veneer of north eastern nobility lies the sparsely veiled of a visage of a cultural intelligence officer. He glides through spaces that suck up the most hardened military men.

It is imo - a masterstroke. If he pulls it off - he will become a figure far far far greater than the one who has just resigned.

At 10:06 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Hi Maverick,

I had decided to stop reviewing the forum but their bile has indeed taken a new hideous hue. I notice that you have already hit the important points in your post. It is amazing to me how these John Snow, Ramana, NRao types can convert everything into "MMS is weak".

Had the monsoon failed, surely it would have been MMS's fault.

Well, the web needs jokers just like it needs Siddharths, and the forum is serving its purpose by keeping the DCH jumping up and down in an oprganized corner of the web.

Yes, each and everyone of them had predicted that there will be talk of a new draft. However, the new draft was supposed to remove 2(g) or some such.

The game is far from over. DCH on the forum have a patience level of 100m dash.

At 2:08 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello Mani,

Unfortunately I do not have the liberty of turning away from this mess.

After the "failure" at the NSG - the forum braves are doing yet another victory dance.

I see Hon. Webmaster is attempting to use the present state of enthusiasm among his followers to launch himself as a Uranium refining expert. This should be even more priceless than the attempt to make himself a nuclear weapons expert.

The present situation at the NSG was anticipated but not desired. No international regime can be crafted out of systematically denying small countries the right to vent their anger. Who can forget how many times India held up proceedings on moral grounds alone? Given that - who are we to deny others similar opportunities.

As I have suggested on Siddharth Vardarajan's blog, a number of countries in the NSG played by the rules and forfieted profitable opportunities for indulging in third party commerce. Now with the US changing the rules to facilitate India's entry into the scene - these countries are sensing a loss of opportunity.

While India and the US get rich off direct trade while these countries will remain disallowed from indirect trades. Every bird - even one that sits in a golden cage - craves for freedom - so quite naturally the question these countries are asking is "why can't we have a good time too?".

There are two ways by this can resolve itself - firstly India and the US offer them a few slices of the pie or these countries break the NSG and go off looking for "a good time" by themselves.

Ofcourse - there is no telling who these countries will meet once they step outside the gilded doors of the NSG looking for a "good time". For all I know Osama Bin Laden is waiting outside the NSG door waiting with open arms for New Zealand or Austria to walk out.

So if in that process - they come away the worse for wear - who can say that was not also anticipated?

At 2:24 PM, Blogger maverick said...


Hmm.. here ... is more of that nuclear expert stuff he keeps trying to pull.

" If India comes into NSG controlled global U market, with just the DAE/Anil Kakodkar's 40GWe LWR in 11 years, those reactors will absorb 12,100 tonnes/year from the market (1.2 million tonne over the lifetime of the LWR). That for sure will jack up the futures price of uranium. So I think $60/lb is under-priced if India enter the fry of U powered reactors, to supplement/support the delayed 3-stage fuel cycle."

If the India US deal goes through -the entire projection for nuclear energy utilisation will change globally. That perception shift will affect the price of everything from Uranium to enrichment to Purex ... every small piece of technology will be seen in a new light after that.

Sure if Hon. Webmaster and other extra terrestrials walk around the world trying to buy 12,000 Tons of Uranium in a single shot - the price will go up.

However - ultimately - India will negotiate supply arrangements in the same way it negotiates other deals for things like oil and natural gas.

The rate will be fixed for supply over a certain time frame and that rate will be linked to the payments that India makes on any loans required to service to contract. Ultimately the market however controlled has to conform to the basic economic notion of an equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Yes - there will be haggling and we are experts at that.

If the price of the Uranium is too high - then India will not be able to sustain LWRs and it will have to shift to alternatives.

At 2:41 PM, Blogger maverick said...


It really helps to be clear about the basics here. These idiots on the forum are obsessed with weapons and they don't understand the basics of how the modern economy works.

When you buy something you don't pay for it directly. You typically take a loan and then adjust the loan repayments to be such that you can make the payments at some level you can live with.

So even the Hon. Webmaster's "300 billion" figure is not much when spread out over the reactor's lifetime.

However in order for someone to agree to be a financial intermediary between you and the seller there has to be a wider understanding that accomodates notions of risk at your end, at the sellers end and at the finance guy's end.

The NSG negotiation is the penultimate step in a complex negotiation with a number of external players. At the end of the day - when we buy these reactors - we will be asking people inside and outside the country to invest in our economic performance at a scale that is unheard of thus far.

So it is not a question of how many billion we ask them to invest - it is a question of how we can make the electricity we produce from these reactors efficiently promote economic growth that enables us to make timely repayments and avoid penalties.

That is all that counts.

So while Hon. Webmaster is busy wondering how many ATVs he can fuel with 1000000000 gigatons of Uranium that is mined from every speck of sand in India - the DAE and the Min. Fin. may be thinking of how many tons of Uranium it should set aside as a "rainy day" reserve for unanticipated hiccups and acts of God that disable the supply chain management.

We can't all think like in that information vacant way that the forumites do.

Some of us have to keep our heads on our shoulders.

At 3:50 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Hi Mav,

I suppose it is pointless to keep pointing out the obvious to those who have no intention of listening.

But, just in case the situation changes, here it is again:

"It is the neutrons, stupid."

If folks actually tried to understand AK's powerpoint, there would be less khujli and more anxiety over India's energy future.

Why would an India that relies on imports for >90% of its energy be very secure regardless of how many GigaBums it possessed?

What do folks imagine? -- India going to Saudi and saying "sell us oil or we'll nuke you"?

even jpeg jingogiri should pause once in a while and collect its meager wits.

At 3:55 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

I don't know how they do it in India but private development in the US such as nuclear power generation, banks form syndicates or "lending groups",and letters of credit are extended to the builder of the plant, usually the local electric utility (although nowadays the local utility does not seem to own the generating plant anymore). Everything is projected out on the number of years of development process with bench marks to be met. Insurance companies will insure or "bond" the process and then, in order to not absorb major losses will parcel out part of the business as "reinsurance" to other insurance companies all over the world.

The electric utility will issue corproate bonds to the bank syndicates of varying length of maturities. The banks may resale the bonds on open markets. In order to meet scheduled payments on the bonds, the electric utility raises it rates on its customer base gradually during the length of the process called "CWIP" Construction Work in Process. In this manner the customer base doesn't get a huge increase in the rate all at once.

And so it goes. I would like to think that India will privatize this process but maybe not. I don't know how electric utilities are handled in India.

At 8:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

People always think about financial transactions similar to "You walk into the corner store, buy 1/4 kg ghee, paythe money and get out"

Things doesn't work like that in international commerce. I LMAOd on the notion of stockpiling 100 years worth of U. That is orders of magnitude cheaper than Colin bin Power holding a vial of refined flour.

Does people imagine that Chidambaram Chettiar will open his tijori and take out bags of gold to pay for the reactors/fuel? Pity on them.

At 7:07 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Mani,

Everyone knows that they are pretending to be deaf.

The "deal" is being oversimplified for political purposes.

There are real dangers to over simplification.

There is a horrible price to be paid if you can't keep track of the all the details.

I am willing to accept someone who says - "a situation where we cannot keep track of the details is inimical to national security".

But people on the forum are being actively led to ignore details in favour of a politically charged narrative.

By the same logic - are the people
who persist in trying to deafen us doing a good thing for our national security?

I have repeatedly told people that the NSG debate is a technical debate. The media's role is to bring out information from various players at the NSG as we do not have official communication channels. I have said there is no role of uninformed commentary about the NSG deliberations.

The media for once has done a good job - they told us the extent of the opposition in the NPAS.

But inspite of being told to avoid distracting behaviour - the forum has failed us - some forum leaders are encouraging forumites to make unnecessary noises and politically colour the events at the NSG.

We have to reach a consensus that both the supplier, buyer and lenders (note plural) will find acceptable. Negotiations at the NSG are now at their most critical stage - anti-dealers on the forum are out celebrating a victory and are filling the board with the celebratory bullshit.

They need to stop the din because the rest of us are trying desperately to listen to the already noisy media channels about the NPAS and their activities.

If they do not stop - questions will be asked about why these people parading as anti-deal pundits want to screw India so badly.

At 8:35 AM, Blogger maverick said...

An NSG split seems very likely at this point.

At 9:44 AM, Blogger GinC said...

Prof T. –

You seem to have high regard for Vsunder. Is this the same person as Sagun Chanillo or Vsunder as given by other poster in DF as another VS sunder.

In any case, there are many, two admins (Ramana and Shiv), Satya avnashi and few of the usual crowd, who say they do not understand math but are ready to jump on Amber G., of course, taunting not too subtly with her comments in “nuclear thread” etc. A typical comment from Shiv:

Postor AmberG has not spared even a few microseconds to think that anyone else might know any math, which is sad for a person who wanted to test the math ability of forum members on the nuclear discussion thread a few weeks ago.

Wonder what gives?

And, of course, the usual “vedic Mathematics” and “astrology” has creeped in there.

Meanwhile, I think, this vsunder thingie is a big fraud, just like nuclear fission/fusion/plasma experts like Honerable Webmaster and his worshippers like Shiv/Ramana (not to mention Chandi Prasad type avatars) …doing all the oohs and ahhs at those spread sheets, non-linear curves and crab Nebulas.

The links which Vsunder gives are weird:

I mean, What Swiss cheese lemma ( his problem of disjoint squares, as he calls it) has to do with “LPEstimates for fractional integrals and sobolev inequalities with applications to schr dinger operators
Or covering lemma has to do with
(... some error / invalid link )

Nothing, even remotely, seem to have any connection with his original problem.

Of course, no one is bothered there to even check those links, everyone is jumping on there … how dare one question these guys.. Amber G. has been issued a public warning not unlike Ldev…

Go figure.

At 9:34 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Hi ginc,

Prof Chanillo has solid credentials. Whether the postor vsunder is the same person or not is not for me to verify. As for the math goobledygook, well some folks enjoy that sort of thing -- enough said.

Meanwhile, the DCH brigade would like to see a statement from MMS, or even a "few words" so that they can feel better. This is from the same NRao who keeps saying that "India has no reprocessing tech". You can not make DCH read. They will continue to be clueless -- enough said.

At 6:07 AM, Blogger maverick said...


Again.. projecting stuff on AK's behaviour - "Last Stand" etc... is nonsense.

It is amazing how many people on the forum get their rocks off by thinking that India is going to get screwed.

Basically these guys have grown up believing that somehow they are more competent than the rest of India put together. Unless they believe that they feel very inferior to the rest of their countrymen.

Consequently - they have no confidence in the rest of India.

Now in the old days - this kind of talk had limited traction. A significant portion of the upper castes were disaffected with the apparent lack of economic opportunities in India and this enabled a section of public opinion to swing towards defeatism of this sort.

In the present day - the DCH are fed full of the profits of the last two decades. The upper castes are now raking in profits unimaginable to their forefathers.

This is creating a new sense of confidence that does not permit such defeatist thinking.

Barring pockets like J&K where war has ravaged the economy - most of India is a much more confident lot.

This is the answer that is proving so elusive in the "Indian psyche" thread.

At 6:14 AM, Blogger maverick said...

The extent to which they are manufacturing divisions between the DAE top brass and the PMO is amazing.

This takes the cake

"No. BUT, having followed AK, I am convinced that if both were to walk past each other they will not acknowledge each other."

When did you ever follow AK or MMS? You haven't been within a 100 feet of either.

Seriously - these people don't understand that there is a limit to what you can pull out of your ass.

At 6:43 AM, Blogger maverick said...

We can't lobby the NSG on our own. The NSG was the US's baby and if it cries too loud about this deal - the US will have to decide whether it wants to throw out the baby.

What NZ does is its business however - someone needs to explain to the *people* of New Zealand that folks living it up on the side of the world's largest swimming pool may not understand a single thing about living in the mean back streets of Asia.

India isn't polluting the swimming pool on New Zealand's shores - so strictly speaking NZ has no reason to object.

One recognises that the NZ-China free trade deal is a major landmark event. It reduces NZ's economic dependence on the access to the European markets and that NZ may feel a great sense of loyalty to its newfound trading ally. However NZ should consider what will come from becoming too close to China's orbit. Surely no one in New Zealand wants to replace their nation's slavery to European interests with slavery to Chinese interests.

At 2:32 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Whoa... what is this?

"I am more worried about AK's health with all this travel and having to take the pressure instead of elected representatives who collect bank accounts and let him face the heat."

On one hand you support Hon. Webmaster who wants AK and RC hung from a lamp post and now... you say that you are worried about AK's health?

How are we to interpret this?

At 4:40 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

I have an analogy about the debate on the forum:

Think in cricket terms. What if the time between successive deliveries was like 3-6 months?

So, what we have is all forms of "expert" commentary in between balls being bowled. The entire episode of nuke deal is like one "over" that has taken 3 years.

Commentary is bound to be of this nature:

Forum Member #1: The next ball will be a bouncer.

Forum Member #2: You are a moron. Ball number one was a bouncer, so thie next one will be out-swinger.

Forum Member #3: You are both traitors if you can't see that this will be an off-cutter.

Forum Member #4: I will give Ishara. Think "slow ball deception".

Forum Member #5: You children. The outcome of the next delivery was decided in 1939. All this drama is for the gullible public.

Forum Member #6: I have followed this umpire for a long time. He is a snake-oil salesman.

Forum member #7: It doesn't matter. The batsman has sold out. He will be out hit wicket regardless of the delivery.

Forum Member #8: You are a pseudo-occular chamcha. It is the non-striker who is anti-national. he will get the striker run out.

Forum Member #9: I just read in the Hindu that the umpire will change the ball.

Forum Member #10: I told ya!! The bowling side is ball-tampering and shifting goal-posts (sorry, two different sports).

You get the idea.

Some folks think there is actually a point to the above discussion.

At 5:32 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

From day 1, the style of arguments has been the following:

1. I am paranoid about xyz.

2. I invite you to get paranoid along with me.

3. If you refuse my invitation, I will call you a traitor/sell-out.

4. Then I will yell at the top of my voice that "we should walk out".

It appears that such folks have never negotiated anything in their lives. It is not a very good strategy to negotiate in a binary fashion of "my way, or highway".

One would guess that these folks have collected a lot of "highway trophies" and gotten zero "my way" results.

At 8:49 PM, Blogger ldev said...


Fundamentally the problem on the forum re the nuclear thread is:

1. The poll on the recent membership has shown that the majority are Brahmins/high caste hindus with a decidedly extreme Hindu right wing viewpoint.

2. In their minds therefore it is impossible that a Roman Catholic white woman and a Sikh will ever do anything for the good of a "Hindu nation". Only a "Hindu government" such as the BJP can do any good.

3. As such, all the erudite points raised by Rangudu, Narayanan, Amit, etc. are like pissing against the wind.

4. IMO, MMS et al are doing the "art of the possible" which will pay big dividends in the years ahead because without fundamentally strong economic fundamentals, everything else is lost as the former Soviet Union discovered. Today's Russia in contrast is riding high on strong economic fundamentals based on its energy exports. India is not blessed with such natural resources and must therefore create its prosperity (not dig it out of the ground like Russia).

5. The forumites who post on that thread should look at the following headlines:

Big cities in Maharashtra face 5-8 hour power cuts

Special Correspondent

MUMBAI: Maharashtra faced an unprecedented shortage of 6000 MW on Wednesday forcing the state electricity distribution agency, Mahavitaran, to launch a series of emergency measures, including increased load shedding and controls on power usage in government offices, malls and industries.

Ajay Bhushan Pandey, managing director, Mahavitaran told reporters on Thursday that the demand in the State was 14,200 MW and the supply was 9000 MW. The average load shedding was 5200 MW, higher than it was in summer.

6. But living in Kaliphornia, the reality of India is something which is not readily experienced, beyond the obligatory drumbeat of " traitor", "sellout".... etc.

At 9:28 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Hi ldev,

That poll confirmed my suspicions. The forum helps define the phrase "hindu fundamentalist".

At 11:50 PM, Blogger Spock said...

Have folks here noticed that all the new wunderkind posters like vishwakarma, who were acting like pros despite being less than a month old have disappeared?

Maybe the clue rests with what the Hon Webmaster/Chandi Prasad had said sometime ago - Admins would post as ordinary posters?

The question remains: Why would they need to do that? Other than because they don't want to be marked for the hate propaganda?

Makes one wonder, doesn't it?

At 11:55 PM, Blogger Spock said...

Mani_Tripathi said...
Hi ldev,

That poll confirmed my suspicions. The forum helps define the phrase "hindu fundamentalist".

Mani jee,

More confirmation for your suspicions.

Poster Fanne wrote: "It is done by a government that does not enjoy any support in India on 'nationalistic' ground. It is de facto headed by a foreigner, by a leader who has not yet won even a mayor's post, whose patriotism has been doubted by many (from Jaswant Singh to Cong's own backroom boys), who has in the past starved the newclear program of funds......anyway this does not inspire confidence.

Hon Webmaster has complimented Fanne for writing something he himself wanted to write.

Oh its such a joy to be a Hindu bigot sitting in the sunny climes of Kalphornia! :-)

At 11:57 PM, Blogger Spock said...

"Nationalistic government" is the code word for BJP government.

BTW our "voluntary moratorium" which is giving us such "involuntary" headache is a "nationalistic" move right?

At 1:44 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

okay ,
it seems some asshole puke generals have decided that this is the best ti me to turn the tap back on, inside the valley .
And their buddies in America have agreed to it as well. Not to mention John Bull's ambassador who makes a "humanitarian" visit to the valley.

Couple this with our oh so liberals talking about self-determination and a sinister setup is complete.

So, according to some, the way ahead for India to become a 'great power' in the 21st century lies in
1. Giving up strategic territory
2. Showing that 1947 can be repeated .
3. Proving that nothing is really barred in India as long as you have the right surname and a beard to go with it.

The Islamists in the meantime become super happy because their strategy has been
1. Settle somewhere .
2. Start conversions and breeding
3. the moment your population exceeds a certain percentage , start ethnic cleansing.
4. Once you are at 80 per cent plus declare the area as 'Dar-ul-Islam' and call for Azadi.

What we need:
1. Uniform civil code right now. this is Dar-ul-harb , even according to the Koran they have no right to have any Sharia laws here.
2. repeal of Art 370 . Nehru said it was temporary, so let us make it temporary.

3. Three direct trains from Bihar to the valley.

At 2:09 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Rajouri and Poonch are the worst affected districts today..

Over the years the Hindu population in these areas has been hemorrhaging due to targetted strikes by "militants" or more precisely puki mother fuckers ..

but of course the chatterati of this country will be more interested in "self-determination'

At 6:22 AM, Blogger maverick said...

You know speaking of conspiracies I wonder what the forum folk would make of the fact that Lionel Barber of the FT was flown by the White House along with Felix Rohatyn to brief George Bush about Europe some years ago.

That should set the conspiracy clocks ticking.

At 6:50 AM, Blogger maverick said...

I think people who find the idea of a "Hindu India" comforting are ... in my opinion.. a bewildered lot.

They come in all kinds and sizes but predominantly they lives in some weird space that is not in the real India where the sheer diversity of life is so in your face that you can't even pretend to ignore it.

The term "Hindu" traditionally has been used by forward castes to denote an unpolled silent majority that endorses their actions. Invaders picked up on this terminology to their own advantage and what we are seeing in published literature on this subject is really - a clash of interpretations of the word "Hindu".

From the forward caste perspective the word "Hindu" is proprietary and its copyright can't be shared unless the outsider "assimilates" per their norms. From the outsider perspective - the word "Hindu" is public property which can be used selectively to bolster an individual or group's standing.

The fact that the real people of India defy interpretation in strictly "Hindu" (or "Muslim" or "Buddhist") terms is something that is conveniently ignored by both sides in this debate.

BRF was started as a place for all Indians to come and discuss defense issues. The overbearing nature of the "Hinduer than thou" ideology has reduced the place to a shambles. It is only natural that the self appointed forum pundits are turning against the GoI. They are unable to deal with the shift in political fashion - "friendly Hindutva" in the Vajpayee era to the "overwhelming tolerance" of the MMS era.

Speaking of isharas and conspiracies - one comes to mind.

An Australian company has recently found oil at greater depth (and previous ONGC ops) in the Gulf of Kambhat. The majority stake holder in these fields is the Gujurat State Petroleum board. There are rumours of reserves approaching BHN sizes here but I think it is only as long as the price of oil stays high - that exploitation of the Kambhat reserves is possible. If alternative energy becomes available the desire to exploit these will diminish.

So what conspiratorial inferences can one draw from Modiji's victory in Gujurat and the BJP's spirited opposition to the nuclear deal. Surely the rest of us already know that some 60% of India's refined petroleum products come from Jamnagar in the same state?

Are we fools if we ignore the possibility of ulterior motives? or are we to go on believing that this is all somehow solely the result of one man's desire to become PM? What if we think that neither Modiji nor Advanji are capable of being infected by the same virus that took out Chaudhary Charan Singh and Sri. Chandrashekhar? What is to prevent people from believing that the BJP is just fronting for the oil industry's interests in India? after all look at the enthusiasm with which they tried to get the IPI up and running?

Surely such arguments can also be made about coal and the CPI?

Anyone can construct conspiracies - the question is how much air time one gives this kind of rubbish.

The forum is giving too much air time to conspiracies.

At 6:59 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Wrt to the comment about a lack of legitimacy.

The "nationalist" CPI and the "nationalistic" BJP was not able to hold its own in parliament.

That I am afraid is the bottom line.

As things stand - the PM has more electoral standing than either the BJP or the CPI.

If you dont' like it - you can join the Hurriyat's march to Muzzafarabad. I mean seriously - if you want to act like a Pakistani - there is no point in pretending to be an Indian.

Somehow when it comes to questioning credibility - it never occured to people like this to contest the credibility Hon. Webmaster who without any qualifications avers forth on issues of nuclear weapons design and reactor operations and uranium and plutonium refining.

As far as I know Hon. Webmaster hasn't won a lok sabha seat either.

Yet folks blithely accept him and his words as gospel truth.

At 7:05 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Okay.. Hon. Webmaster wants loyalty checks for all Indians who negotiate on behalf of GoI.


Err.. what is a sufficient loyalty check? the willingness to believe Hon. Webmaster's arrant nonsense?

At 7:20 AM, Blogger maverick said...

posted without comment.

text of the LTBT/PTBT

At 2:17 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Bye, bye, reason. Hello JPeg Jingogiri.

SV's article has been hijacked. What he writes has been twisted into "MMS is sell-out".

And then this masterstroke:

"All Indians need to together gather around Anil Kakodkar and others to defend Indian interest and Red Lines."

Err, last I heard, AK was walking on water selling vaporware, no?

Lota Logic. As N^3 said, goes like this:

"Make up a conclusion and then wist everything to make it look like evidence"

The forum is like a "bug-zapper". It attracts DCH and does what is equivalent of an e-lobotomy on them.

At 2:34 PM, Blogger maverick said...

The beauty here is that the same Hon. Webmaster who until recently wanted everyone on the DAE top brass exposed and cashiered is now attacking TPS for making a statement about the Thorium programme.

TPS's statement is no different from Hon. Webmaster's comments about vapourware.

At 6:39 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hmm... again taking everything Claude Salhani says without asking where he gets it from or who he is... fantastically brilliant.

At 7:26 AM, Blogger maverick said...


So finally n^3 has come out and said it openly on the forum. I wonder if Hon. Webmaster and company are even listening to him.

I am reproducing his words here because they need to be heard everywhere.

"Its not that they haven't grasped it - it is that they see the writing on the wall. What 40 new reactors in India means, is that India becomes the reliable, low-cost supplier of nuclear components. Maybe it's US companies with facilities in India, where the anti-nuke regulations are not as bad as in the US or Oirope, so the Oiropean competitive position is eroded.

Today Japan has monopoly in large reactor vessels because the US steel industry has gone dead from lack of demand. This will change swiftly. Note that Mittal is now the world's largest steel producer. Mittal-Reliance-Westinghouse could outbid Japanese companies for the reactor vessel market in short order.

Same for turbomachines. Today Austria is a leading producer of large steam turbines etc. GE-L&T or GE-Tata may render the Austrian suppliers irrelevant.

In addition to their other problems, the Oiropeans and New Zealanders have built in severe regulatory costs because they weren't seriously challenged in the marketplace. Now suddenly the mat is getting pulled from under them, and they have no hope of getting popular support for dismantling all their holier-than-thou regulations.

OTOH, in the US, the anti-nuke sentiment is far down now because going to nukes beats the heck out of signing the Kyoto Protocol.

Ultimately, the strategic interest of the US in linking with India on nuclear technology is very simple - this is the best way to restore US competitiveness and economic survival against the onslaught of the Oiropeans and Japan on the top end and the Chinese from the bottom.

By the same token, the Austrians and the New Zealanders and Irish can see the writing on the reactor walls. This is why there is no easy solution.

Any "discussions" explaining the deal via the Ambassadors is probably some sort of "no-compete" assurances or even some purchase assurances to buy time for the minnows to change their domestic realities. Maybe Austria will be assured of some nice contracts to develop hydro power in India, or maybe even some steam turbines for nuke plants."

This would make the perfect BRM oped.

This *IS* one of the deeper aspects of the NSG negotiations.

"I don't know how you reassure New Zealand - fix a few Test matches? Withdraw the IPL contracts of Scott Styris and others? Buy cows? Promise a contract to develop the geothermal resources above the Lok Sabha?"

This is the problem that I have been struggling with for the past two weeks.

As you might all be aware - the key NZ export industries are all owned and operated by descendants of European colonists. However the local economy of NZ is supported by a market that is far more diverse and multi-ethnic. Apart from the challenge of maintaining a robust local market while ensuring the dominance of people of european ancestry - there is the added challenge of ensuring that the Europeans don't push NZ around too much so that NZ's exports are sheilded from global price fluctuations.

Right now the NZ guys are completely circling the Chinese orbit. Given the downturn in the global economy - and the precarious economic situation in Europe - they are very keen to create a leverage point vis-a-vis european markets. There is another latent problem here - a lot of the people of European origin are feeling estranged from Europe. The manner in which the no on in Europe gives a rat's arse about NZ makes them feel terrible. Some are actively contemplating an Asian fling - with China or Japan to provide succor from this lost love in Europe. Given NZ's history with Japan - it is only natural that they are slowly sliding into bed with China.

This will bring with it an enormous set of problems especially as ANZUS survives in this day as a predominantly anti-China bulwark. With NZ tying progressively larger chunks of its economy to China - we can expect to see problems with NZ Dollar and problems with NZ's political loyalties.

NZ will have to be handled with care. We want to stay clear of US-China dominance games in the South Pacific while ensuring that NZ does not do anything that prejudices our national interests.

At 8:16 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Hi Maverick,

I have held from day 1 of this deal tamasha that a large component is about commerce and about outsourcing nuke power R&D to India.

There are many details to be worked out that require careful measurement and proofing of concepts. DOE has been balking at the costs associated with GNEP, but if Indian R&D is in the mix, some programs that are otherwise cost-prohibitive become possible.

I would be quite interested personally to promoting collaborative efforts with Indian institutions in this regard

By the way, IIRC, Mitsubishi and L&T have already launches a joint venture on production of super-heated steam turbines. Also, Westinghouse is now owned by some Japanese corporation, forget which one. So, Japan will very much stay in the mix and is not threatened. They were capable of making very very loud noises but they quieted down early in the game.

At 9:52 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

what will NZ say about this, eh?

At 10:04 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

AK's fortunes on the forum are sort of like the fortunes of that KFC outlet in Karachi.

One day the rakshaks line up to buy all the chicken AK can provide and then another day they burn down the restaurant.

A few weeks later they rebuild the place and queue up for his chicken.

We know very well that arson is not ruled out in tomorrow's Mood-e-Rakshak Du Jour :)

At 10:17 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

> Mood-e-Rakshak Du Jour

let's be clear that it is not M-e-R de jure or even M-e-R de facto.

There is no ipso facto hello moto hanky panky going on and things are hunky dory.

Let' not dilly dally because it is okie dokie. No need for spic 'n' span or rock 'n' roll while we speak the language of invaders.

Poor "Sum" is reeling under Ishara strike on TSP dhagaa. Let him nota bano the modus aperandi on this fine day of anno domini.

If you don't catch my Ishara its because you are missing the prima facie evidence of in flagrante delicto.


At 2:34 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

"Webmaster to the Stars" and "I-share-a-viewpoint-ji" are drooling over the prospect of India testing nukes in an act of revenge for failing to reach a nuke agreement. I dunno maybe Sonia and MMS will start popping 'em off, eh? Whut are the odds?

At 3:15 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...


I would say the odds are small. IMO, the deal still has a very good chance of passing the NSG hurdle even though it may not happen this week.

At the same time, in a sensible world, it is conceivable that a deal is struck wherein India has a last round of tests and then signs up to the CTBT. Since, the US has not ratified the CTBT, India could device a similar mechanism for "half-signing" it. But, as I said, that makes sense only in a sensible world, not the one which you and I reside in.

Did you take a look at the Phys Today report? It puts paid to any moral/righteous arguments, so it is all about negotiating within one's clout. It was always the case but now it is more widely understood. NPAs shouting from soapboxes are only managing to deter such understanding from entering their brains. They will come around only after even the illiterate have understood the fraud of the NPT.

I am not at all in the gung-ho camp of testing nukes. The report above simply clarifies what I have always argued: view China+Pakistan as one entity. All the dichotomy and proliferation etc then is mere semantics.

What it does bring up is whether India has the clout to compete with China-stan, which has already gathered up the chutzpah to compete with the US, Russia and the EU in all fields. IMO, India is lagging and until the time it catches up, setting off GigaBooms is not going to impress anyone except the DCH on the forum.

India is better off working with the rest of the world on tech transfers and building up of the industrial base. There is immense talent and a youthful workforce in India that is raring to go.

It will take two steps to realize India's modernization which can leapfrog the development into the forefront:

1. Tech transfer, setting up of industries and production at costs competitive in the world market (ths is what China has achieved).

2. Massive R&D effort leading to innovation, intellectual property and introduction of new products (this is where India has a leg-up but is useless without step 1).

For all of this to happen, IMO, the deal is the right direction even if it has some minor compromises.

Yes, I said the c-word above which results in instant lynching on the forum. I am glad to be posting away from that cacophony.

At 8:59 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

Professor T,

I just read the article and it is mind boggling. However, it made some assertions w/o any substantiation such as proliferation to other countries besides Pakistan. It begs the question "what does it benefit China?". I think it is foolish of the Chinese to automatically assume that such proliferation is not inherently dangerous to China. For instance north korea set one off in the mountains near China. I don't know about you but if Mexico set one off in the mountains near the US I will be one nervous nellie.The NK shot could not have been comfortable for China. I dunno, maybe they have bigger balls than we do? In such case, they are way more dangerous than we are.

At 10:25 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Prof T,
there is nothing to forget about which Jap corp owns westing house- its Toshiba and they also have a JV with Kazakhstan.

At 11:19 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Dear ralphy,

>>>>> It begs the question "what does it benefit China?". I think it is foolish of the Chinese to automatically assume that such proliferation is not inherently dangerous to China.

In case you are overlooking the fact that the "tests" by both Pak and NoKo were fizzles, let me remind you of that important factor.

What China has achieved is the MIRAGE that Pak and NoKo have nuclear development programs.

What they have is goats and whatever animal the NoKos prefer.

The entire facade is to give China an 'additionaility" in their own program. They can sign the CTBT and then test one in NoKo.

For example, the NoKO "fizzle" may well have been the latest sub-kiloton Chinese test.

These weapons are no threat to China because they sit on Chinese territory, ready to be transferred to the poodles at a moment's notice.

If this fact is known and suppressed by the US, it is understandable as part of some "great game" being played. However, if this simple fact is news to the spooks, I propose that we cut off all funding to spook central.

At 11:21 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...


One more thing. Do you recall when the US rejected bilateral talks with NoKo and insisted that China be part of the negotiations?

Doesn't that tell you that dealing with the poodle alone is useless?

At 11:24 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

D for C,

Thanks, yes, it is Toshiba.

By the way, haven't seen you post much lately. Cheers.

At 1:11 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

At 1:14 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Hi prof,
been terribly busy of late with work . in any case pretty interesting times ahead for the nuclear industry. I have been saying it from the start - this deal is mainly about business , big business.

and it is definitely not one sided. the biggest benefit of this deal will accrue to those who see India as a future nuclear manufacturing hub of sorts. L&T is already talking about pressure vessels. that would definitely make the case for LWRs a lot stronger. '

and yes, I agree with your earlier comments about the need to expand our industrial base. the deal definitely creates ( once it is actually through) the possibility of India becoming an exporter of previously denied high end manufacturing items.

At 7:34 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

In my humble view, what is better to manufacture are the turbines and electrical equipment itself rather than the reactors. Reactors aren't in all that much demand and a few thousand engineers can pretty much cover the market. Turbines and electrical equipment are much broader in demand. Plus there are a myriad ways of generating, solar, wind, coal, whutevah. My feeling is that eventually electrical generation will be incorporated into the individual housing structure of the inhabitants. But that is a ways away. Between nanotechnology and some recent physics discoveries, there are some awesome things on the way. Just a matter of time.

At 8:09 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

"I am an EB and jumping up and down is my Birthright"

Glen Kessler is eating popcorn watching the jumping brigade do its dance.

At 3:30 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Hey Ralphy,
a lot of reactors are now in the pipeline the worldover. the situation has changed dramatically over the course of this year and some 230 reactors may be built in the next 12-15 years worldwide. that's a big number and since most of those would be LWRs there will be a shortfall of pressure vessels. that's where Indian manufacturing can step in.

I totally agree with you on the need to ramp up turbine capacity. However this is not an either / or scenario.. the only reason the chinese could do 15 GW plus a year while we did that in a five year plan was because they have had Three BHEL's each of which is three times the size of BHEL. (shandong, Dong feng etc.)

However things are looking up now and 25 GW worth of equipment manufacturing capacity per year will be realized by 2013-15 . Chinese equipment has however been debarred in the meantime . Although Reliance and Shandong are engaged in a JV..

As far as decentralised generation, building integrated solutions are concerned ... its already happening and very soon nationwide net energy metering laws may be put in place.

At 3:34 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

As far as this deal is concerned, I 'll reiterate what I have said earlier

1. its not the end of the world if we sign it.
2. it's not the last time we will be offered a deal. a better deal possible ?
of course , a better deal is always possible.

4. will we lose our strategic autonomy ?
only if we have really weak governments at the helm. but it can be argued that in such a scenario you can use your strategic space, deal or no deal.

At 6:48 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Hi Saurav,

>>>> a better deal possible ?
of course , a better deal is always possible.

A worse deal is also always possible.

An India desperate for energy may sign on the dotted line of anything.

Meanwhile the jumping brigade has picked up new steam. Even N^3 seems to have given up his attempts to be heard above the cacophony.

At 10:10 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...


I think centralized power generation is going to go the way of the dinosaur. It is like when back in the day one gigantic motor and a byzantine complex of belt drives would power a factory. No more centralized belt drives, small electric motors are now everywhere. How long this will take, I don't know, but it is on the way. One MIT professor has developed a process where a solar panel will generate power after the sun goes down through some kind of weird process. It may turn out to be a commercial dud but serious people are putting some serious effort into it. McCain wants to offer a $350 million dollar prize to develop a new super battery. Who knows? Maybe this can be done.

The problem with nuclear reactors in the US are the NIMBYs and regulatory impediment to speedy construction. It makes them super expensive. The ROW probably won't have a problem with this however.

At 4:18 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

After being experts on weapons, mineralogy, electrical power generation and what not, the UberRakshaks are now lawyers!

The refrain is that Babus don't understand law like these worthies do. If you round up the lot, here is the team of Lawyers you will get:

1. Ramana
2. ShauryaT
3. sraj
4. NRao
5. John Snow

Will anyone here hire this team if you had to go to court? Even for a parking ticket?

At 4:22 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Teacup Tsunamists.


At 4:24 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

yup solar power with/without storage back up is always a good idea for decentralised deployment ..

microturbines are not a bad idea either..
centralised generation is definitely not the way forward , absolutely

but to attain true dispersed solutions certain IT upgrades may be in order..

At 4:32 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

At 4:37 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Hi Prof,

A worse deal is always possible , only when you have a weak government at the helm. its not so much the deal that matters but those who sign it.

On the other hand,

I think the nuke sector needs to be liberalised fast . while it is now clear that the early introduction of th-232 in the FBR blanket is not the best idea ,
other thorium concepts may come in handy such as ...
1. V jagannathan's 'A thorium breeder reactor'(venture capital , anyone?)
2. Collaboration with Thorium Power for thorium-uranium and thorium-plutonium fuels.

3. Possible import of some Gen IV pebble bed reactors

Apart from this I can only hope and pray that Accelerator driven systems make the thorium (u-233) utilisation a commercial possibility in the 2020's itself...

At 5:20 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

D fr C,

My guess is that ADR systems are where the FBR was 15 years ago, as in a nice concept but no prototype.

I have no found any flaws in DAE's plan as shown in AK's powerpoint. The need of the day is a rapid deployment of proven uranium based reactors.

The neutron bank needs to be accumulated today and salted away for use in future decades for breeding.

At 6:45 PM, Blogger dilbert said...

Despite all the vaunted code of conduct on the forum, the usual suspects (Mani_T's Dream Team of lawyers, plus sundry whining hangers-on) are back to their usual tricks:

1. MMS is a sellout (Ishaara Master repeated that today).

2. Arundhati Ghose is a sellout.

You know the rest. Everyone who is optimistic about these NSG negotiations is a traitor/sellout.

I thought it was great to see N3 challenge the Ishaara Master (and bitch-slap that stupid Sarma around the block), but sooner or later we all know what's going to happen if the deal goes through: the whining will rise to a crescendo and "traitors/sellouts" like N3, Rangudu, Amit etc. will be banned.

At 7:50 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

except the hypersonic mullah all others on that list are liable to be unceremoniously ejected.

on the other hand , I agree with him about the ongoing race to build hypersonic systems . even Canada has jumped into the fray

the only thing that he does not seem to accept is that a new generation of nukes are being researched .. with the NIF being at the forefront ..

And yes they haven't given up on nuclear isomers - claims , counter claims , frauds , hafnium 178m2 , Collins etc notwithstanding.

while I would also say that testing right now may not be an idea , but foreclosing the option altogether would be foolhardy.

However as indicated by MMS we can test they can sanction. that is indeed the bottomline.

if you have a strong leadership you can do anything . this whole 'we will be finished because we signed on some treaty' is bullshit.

when was the last time Noko withdrew from the NPT ?
has the NPT been able to stop Iran?
How soon can japan go nuclear?

The answers to these questions show that if you have g**nd me dum , you can sign anything and give a fib about which treaty you signed when.

The nuke deal does not constrain our ability to test . Ten years down the line when we are sitting pretty with more fuel and stuff from France and Russia ( whose 123s won't involve any conditions except a requirement to buy 100 odd reactors from them) , it will constrain us even less. By that time America's economy would have also shrunk by 15 per cent . :0 :)

At 9:29 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

another hogwash that is being being propogated today reads as following-

" we need to re-orient opur military for asymmetric warfare" the so called "this war-itis".

This whole thing is a big scam to peddle all kinds of equipment ranging from UAVs to MRAPs.

the modus operandi is simple , create a mess in distant lands, plonk your troops there and the start talking about how all future wars will be asymmetric in nature.

Let me make myself clear , no insurgency/ rebellion can sustain itself without the support of foreign states . succesful insurgencies agsinst larger players all bear a common characteristic-
the training and funding comes from a coalition of states , some neighbouring and some distant. the following pattern may be observed

1. the coalition builds up sufficient deterrence so that the target state is unable to invade the neighbouring state and take out the 'insurgents base'.
Indeed it can be said that insurgents often train inside an Integrated Air Defense system';) :)

2. the coalition often supplies the insurgency with new weapons that are targeted at the prime weakness of the incumbent . e.g stingers in Afstan , EFPs in Iraq etc. a bunch of abduls on their own can't come up with some of the really nasty stuff doing the rounds out there.

3. often engage in a limited conflict themselves when the abduls are falling behind the counter-insurgency effort. Kargil is a prime example of the same.

No insurgency takes place in a void. Regardless of what Bob Gates wants us to believe there is simply no S.P.E.C.T.R.E or COBRA (G.I Joe) organisation jeopardising world security . nation states continue to fight through whatever means possible and the U.S.A is the biggest perpetrator of them all.

I just hope the Indian military does not lose sight of the need to be prepared for "larger conflicts" and fall into the U.S policemen honey trap.

Basically strategic programmes must be pushed at all costs , covertly if necessary.

At 9:34 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

At 9:40 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Insurgencies are nothing new and they have been quelled through history by the use of brute force. Its very simple , once you have no "human rights " issues you can quell any insurgency.

This is borne out by the following examples

1. The Romans in Judea and in Gaul.
2. The British in various places in India.
3. The Russians in Chechnya.

And we all no why the Americans did not go nuclear in Vietnam.

At 12:02 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

This deal should not and cannot constrain us , if the leadership stands firm.

India is too powerful today to be cowed down by anybody.

if we don't get what we want , don't sign anything, we'll get a better deal later if we are firm . period.

scaremongers on both sides , rest easy , if not in pieces.

At 6:40 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Ralphy,

As long as there are no more problems at the NSG - the need for *any* special measures is small.

That said - domestic political fallout in India of US maneuvering at the NSG will have to be contained to ensure that overall investment structure carved out by both sides over the last three years remains stable.

In post Lal Masjid Pakistan - I anticipate that Kayani will try to restore the Pakistan Army's trust with the Mullahs by ejecting Zardari from power and hoisting Nawaz in his place.

This is a crisis that will require special handling as the Mullah-Army partnership legitimises authoritarian behaviour in Pakistan.


Post a Comment

<< Home