Friday, November 28, 2008

Send Shuja Ahmed Pasha to New Delhi

that is not a request.

5071 Comments:

At 6:14 PM, Blogger kgoan said...

Mav, they've already said "no".

Like after the Parliament attacks and Advanis "list".

I've been looking at US news sources for confirmation on the supposed two dead US intel folk who were killed a the Taj right at the start of the operation.

Nothing so far.

REQUEST: There's chatter in a number of places - this stuff has shaken people who don't normally get shaken: should I post some of it openly here?

 
At 9:01 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi kg,

that is why I put this up.

if you think it is appropriate post away

 
At 9:01 PM, Blogger Faizi said...

kgoan,
I am particularly starved of information. I would appreciate it if you could at least point me to some sources.

It is very interesting that most western media, and "experts" were very quick to point the finger at "hindu extremists" before there was any available evidence. I am curious as to how they will pretend that there is no real problem, now that the identities of the attackers have been confirmed as being Pakistani (with a couple of britishers thrown in for good measure). I hope that this puts to rest any ideas of "mediation" and reconciliation on Kashmir.

 
At 9:09 PM, Blogger naveen said...

1. The west will not acknowledge directly and openly the role of Pakistan , for it will vindicate India's stand for last 4-5 decades.

2. The west has selectively chosed to ignore and sometimes even appease extremist groups for their own vested interests Al-queda, Taliban and even the ISI are known to have been nurtured by the unkil.

3. India as a country has never been sure/clear about its foreign policy and has always taken the MIDDLE path , in present context too while the role of PAKISTAN is quite obvious and proven Manniya PM ji refrains from speaking out Pakistan (he chooses to use foreign power instead), such lack of assertiveness creates doubts in the minds of a third person and also provides fodder to the IDM.

 
At 6:52 AM, Blogger Anand K said...

No one has yet brought up the parallels to the Lod Airport Massacre yet?. It appears we also have a canary a-la Okamoto....

BTW, what kind of Houri Hunter, who shot up half of Mumbai, breaks down to the Hindoos 'coz he saw his buddy perforated? More TV Dram-Tamashas and a Mahesh Bhatt film in store for us methinks. That JRA guy actually circumcised himself with his teeth to convert to Judaism and "atone"..... but after release he went back to his shady pals.

 
At 7:58 AM, Blogger murali said...

Mr Know All,

I am southie here.Has your perceptions on jehad and evangelism changed as yet

 
At 8:00 AM, Blogger murali said...

And what do your 'very clever' friends feel

 
At 11:26 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

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At 12:39 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

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At 12:39 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

the bloody fucking goras are playing their usual titty fuck game with the abduls. we need to call that bull pronto.

These bastards through time have supported the most retrograde elements in the abrahamic religious milieu. After having sunk their own bloody economy and got their asses whooped in afghanistan , they are now playing the
"oh we are white! Oh we would have resolved this earlier "!it was indeed a sad day when the mother of these pedantic (white) souls parted her legs.


Bottomline -
"Vijay ya Veergati" rocks.

My salute to the NSG that has for the first time in the history of any country successfully neutralized not one , two but three hostage crisis almost simultaneously .

Credit to the MARCOS too. the unit rocks .
The ATS has shown grit as well.

Like one soldier said
"morale down nahi hona chaahiye".

Samjhe Paandu log .

 
At 12:16 AM, Blogger Faizi said...

Shri. Shivraj Patil has quit. Looks like Vilasrao Deshmukh may also be on his way out. I think this was necessary.

D for C,
Even before the Mumbai attacks, the groundwork was being laid by the american (democratic party) policy establishment to get President elect Obama to put pressure on India in the matter of Kashmir (through such things as mediation and the like). The most significant article in this respect was the one by Barnett Rubin and Ahmed Rashid, who argued that American policy objectives in Afghanistan could only be achieved by an appeasement of Pakistani demands w.r.t India. What these attacks have done is to make all this careful groundwork and grand plan useless. This, in part, explains the unseemly haste on the part of the firangis to blame the attacks on the victims (India and its citizens). Of course, the other reason is that they have always felt more comfortable appeasing Islamist sentiments when it comes to India (and I still don't understand the psychology behind this, even people ("experts" and "pundits") who are ignorant of subcontinental matters are quick to make their opinions known regarding how India treats its muslims, human rights abuses in Kashmir etc..).

 
At 2:46 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

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At 2:56 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

absolutely man,

These goras have been busy pandering to the most backward looking and divisive elements in the Islamic milieu.

They deliberately disturbed the balance that had been achieved between Hindus and
everyday Islam. By the turn of the 19th century a certain tehzeeb and dynamics between the two communities had been established.

e.g - In kanpur , during poetry sessions etc , the food for brahmins used to be cooked by a hindu who had been commissioned by the muslim host . That's your tehzeeb right there.The sweets used to be brought from a hindu halwai's shop.




Of course all this won't matter to those who want to stay stuck in texts and rigid "historic viewpoints". They will say page so and so says such and such . and then all the usual jizz bang will follow.


That's precisely where the difference lies . Anything can be written in a text no matter how sacred but it does not mean that in day to day existence people refer to book number so and so of such and such book , while doing something.

So when you say a person is a muslim or a hindu we actually mean nominally so . because that person has a lot more to him than just some book or the prejudices it may sprout.

On a different note Hardly anybody thinks of god while doing a particular chore . The person who does that is actually a saint!
Regardless of what his government census questionnaire response faith maybe.

Thus the greatest need of the day is to restore community level ties in India . to reach out and know people . there is simply no quick fix to the problems of our times . It requires a broad based movement based trying to include as many people as possible.

And yes it does not include candle light marches and lip service or reservation . it involves education and health care. schools, hospitals etc.

Once you have strong ties , not only will their be instances of people helping each other out , we will also have far greater intelligence on problem characters and very little resistance in dealing with them.

Know the other . the other is very similar. same wants , same insecurities .the modern world is not easy on anybody.


And please don't back some stupid preacher in the name of sekulaarism. the muslim community has a lot of good hardworking people than some two bit preacher in some godforsaken seminary.

The media must stop giving airtime to the wrong people. But then expecting that from a media hell bent on TRPs and educated in oh so liberal seminaries themselves is too much to expect anyway.

 
At 3:09 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

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At 3:13 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Therefore the reason for disturbing the balance is simple-

1. Divide and rule.

2. Make sure that everyday hinduism and everyday islam meet each other less and less instead of more and more as was the trend.
That the communities erect walls around each other and information asymmetry reaches new heights.

3. we must remember that the post-colonial arabs had rallied behind secular arab nationalism with Nasser , the UAR ( Egypt - Syria et al).

4. Hence Islamic radicalism is a late twentieth century phenomena which was deliberately sown amongst the particularly vulnerable clans of Trans-Oxania- Afghanistan . but even there, this will eventually backfire because clans - well they are clans and will ultimately subordinate religion to clan affinity.

5. This is precisely why "experts" like Rashid will not contribute much to the brains trust. its better for him to keep writing those nice travelogues on central asia that I can buy at a discount.

6. if the goras still persist with the Kashmir= Afghanistan nonsense , they are not going to make much headway.


7. All ye Yamrika lovers , Amerika's war on terror is their own war . if they are getting their behinds handed to them it is not our concern.

 
At 3:26 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

The muslim brotherhood was of xourse always there and you may rememeber that when Sadat was killed his assassins shouted


"Death to Pharaoh"

Says something doesn't it.

But the base of operations was the badlands of Bactria.


Money of course came from the goras favourites zealots in Saudi Arabia.


But whichever way you look at it this current form of political islam was allowed to ,mature in the eighties.

 
At 6:18 AM, Blogger Kanson said...

No words to console the Mumbaikars - Tragic moments. known person caught in CST fire. Lucky enough to be alive to tell the story - Horrific.

 
At 11:00 PM, Blogger kgoan said...

Hullo Faizi,

I don't actually have any sources of information outside what's generally available.

It's just that over the years, from various things that folk like you and I and the rest who post on Mavs blog get interested in, I happen to get onto a number of bulletin boards, (yes they still exist - kinda like "undernet"), email lists and other chatterati and "gossip" sites that allows me to collate a lot of information.

Most times nothing comes of this. Sometimes, by scrolling through hundreds of emails I receive, certain things stand out.

That's all really. And I usually only focus on 3 or 4 areas, sci-tech, media/politcs, econmics/finance and the usual "national security" stuff.

Since I left academia however, I simply don't have the time that I used to to keep current on these things.

But I'm still on these various lists.

Currently trying to get an understanding of what's happening here - when I stop focusing on stuff for awhile it takes time to get a "feel" for whats appropriate - and this is different.

More later.

 
At 12:46 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Hnair,

In case you are reading this comments section , I have something interesting for you.

take a look at the following link

http://www.secretprojects.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=5679.msg46448#new

I often have run ins with goras there who try their best to run down Indian capabilities.


And often just like the Mehmaans on DF including the euro trash peddler, the same three things are repeated


1. The "ground level"
2. the origin of the poster should not matter while levelling criticism

3. India should be "open" to criticism,



Frankly speaking I have it up till here with Gora trash . they have done more damage to India than all central asian invaders put together.

 
At 12:58 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

kg,

Good to see that you find the time to post ... try as I might, I can't get worked up about all these calls for cold starts, warm farts or hot shots.

In all this chaos, there is only one winner ... the one who doesn't say much, the one who is quietly growing, the one that upset the apple cart by passing out nuke patakhas ... about time India stopped talking about Pakistan.

 
At 1:24 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

DFC,

What you say about western plans is very likely true at some level. However, what has the west gained in real terms? The factors keeping India down are mosly of Indian making, aren't they?

Secondly, if the western idea is to suppress other civilizations from rising, why have they failed with China?

Perhaps, you should cast a wider net, no? Does the fault lie with those dividing and ruling or with those who allow themselves to be D&R'ed?

On a typical day walking around Lucknow I spot dozens of incidents wherein it is clear that there is a clear lack of "greater good" in the thinking of fellow Indians. Paisa wise and Rupiah foolish to the hilt.

Mayavati has halted construction on all flyover projects started by Mulayam. So now we have a worse mess than before because instead of road we have a half-built flyover with a "diversion" taking the place of the real road. A diversion, by the way, is not a paved road -- a typical paddy field would qualify as a smoother surface.

Now, who should I blame when the elected highest official of this state does not care for the inconvenience of millions in order to run her vendetta?

Did some gora decide to divide Mayawati and Mulayam so that he could rule Lucknow?

IMHO, blaming anyone else for one's own state of affairs is moral cowardice.

 
At 2:19 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Professor,

I am not blaming gora trash for the state of roads in India . I am merely referring to the propaganda that continues to be sprouted by goras to undermine India .

Unlike the 70's Kangrass I do not see a "Foreign Hand" in every episode. However the persistent attitude displayed by the west towards India is a matter of grave concern.


The colonial legacy continues to dog India even today . it has been reinforced over the years by the antagonism that the west has shown by supporting numerous constituencies inmical to India ,both within and without.


China defected towards the west pretty early and is very much a stable actor in the "international system" . Even Indonesia bunked Panchsheel.

india continues to be seen as a gate crasher and attempts to "tame " India continue. Though chinese mass production capability is impressive it does not scare the west . what does scare them however is "innovation" and India is already showing signs of excellence on that front. That is why a prime American imperative has been to drain India's best Intellectual resources away.


Of course the roads, drains, official apathy , economic dirigism and general level of economic development have of course served to alienate some of our finest and sent them into the waiting arms of the west . That trend may be changing now as well.


The west would like nothing better than to see a thoroughly "westernised India " in outlook and one that embraces western isms, whether it be socialism or capitalism or any such doctrine.




And just to stretch a point , the tabulation of castes in government rolls was effectively accomplished by the British in the very late 19th century itself.


The Mayawati -Mulayam type issues had cropped in southern India during the british watch in the 1920's. The Justice Party et al.

the state of roads and western perfidy are of course not the same . yes it would be moral cowardice to blame the existence of open drainage on the british .

however foreigners spreading lies about special operations in an Indian city should not be left uncontested.



Moral cowardice it is not.

Moral Outrage it pretty much is.

 
At 2:27 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

>> I am merely referring to the propaganda that continues to be sprouted by goras to undermine India

only a fool would get undermined by propaganda ... so, what is the worry?

 
At 2:47 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

well,

in that sense posting anything on the internet is a waste of time...


However the malicious word can do a lot of damage. A lot of people in the world soak up stuff from western sources and actually see what channels like Cee yen yen and Pee Pee Cee present as the "right picture".


Take a chap in Nigeria for instance . he would be getting information from one of these illustrious channels and probably forming an opinion.

Now absent an Indian international channel , it is only the internet that can allow non-western perspectives on events to be carried to others .
Now the "indian perspective" can be put on display for all to see.
The asymmetry of information has to be taken care of and propaganda countered.

We must not forget that India was not the only country colonised . A lot of people all over the world continue to be under the spell of the greatest force multiplier -

The western Media,



Indeed if possible an Indian version of Al Jazeera should be setup for non-western countries.

 
At 3:23 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

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At 4:18 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

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At 5:02 AM, Blogger murali said...

Mani Tripathi: Only a fool will be taken in by propoganda.

I am not talking about UP.

But I must admit ONE of your friends IS VERY clever.

 
At 6:04 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

DFC,

Indeed, rather than complain about what the others are doing, India should be making its own voice heard.

However, it is not about lack of a CNN type worldwide network. It is about the incredible lightness of a DDM being.

If brain-cell donation were a possibility, my 12 year old could raise the IQ of the entire lot without feeling a pinch.

So, even if India had 10x CNN power, the programming would have been dorky beyond belief.

Quote: "Sir, your wife is a hostage. Are you worried for her?"

Once again, it is about lack of self organization ... blaming others for being organized just highlights the impotence. Admitting defeat is the first step towards building strength.

Apologies for the contrarian view, but the helplessness in India is palpable.

 
At 6:05 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

murali,

>> I am not talking about UP.

very well. I am not talking about the price of tea in shanghai.

>> But I must admit ONE of your friends IS VERY clever.

thank you for the admission. now, what is the point?

 
At 7:18 AM, Blogger the worthy duck said...

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At 7:19 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello,

The other places can take the political stuff for now.

I will remain focussed on getting a handle on what is going on.

(kg note - I am going to speak plainly - let us hope it gets heard above the chatter. Unfortunately there is no way to be sure of anything but lets hope for the best.)

As others far greater than me have indicated and I repeat for the sake of clarity for those I know read this space:

1) A large assault team with with advanced training and battle indoctrination was thrown into a completely pointless exercise in mass murder.

2) While Pakistan sits on the verge of complete economic collapse -its civilian leadership seeks to secure India's help in dealing with the international financial crisis. Friction between us has to minimized and at this juncture a homicidal ritual in Mumbai is unlikely to even boost the egos of the Islamised military castes. This is a piss poor way and terrible time to be advertising Pakistan's Murder Inc.

3) It needs to be established who inside Pakistan's Murder Inc. authorised this latest waste of resources. In order to do this - we need to secure meaningful cooperation from the Pakistanis .

4) In particular - I find myself confused. Either Sri. Karkare was *the* target OR the attack was meant to distract us from a planned attack on other hard infrastructure targets i.e. the financial information hubs, the refinery complex, the research center, or the munitions depot.

5) Unlike minor disruptions like the murders at the Taj and the Oberoi, any attack on hard infrastructure targets will gravely impinge the image of India as a safe destination for international investment. If we cannot protect a hard infrastructure target - no one in their right mind will invest their in infrastructure development in India. This is the real internal security challenge in India.

6) A disruption of this investment flow will seriously damage India's growth. If India's economic health does not continue to improve - I don't see how India could help Pakistan secure its future given the present state of things. Making the senior management people inside Pakistan's Murder Inc. understand this is the real security challenge in Pakistan.

7) I am not the only one that is confused. Gen Pasha needs to come Delhi as Pradhan Mantriji has asked him to do so . If Gen. Pasha and friends desire it - India can arrange to get the Zardari government roughed up and abused by its international friends - but that is simply a waste of time . Every instant the confusion prevails Pakistan's military castes will look more and more incompetent. That will only add to whatever shame they feel for this present mess.

What I am saying is very very simple:

Keep it civil - Gen. Pasha must go to New Delhi.

 
At 7:21 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

>> However, it is not about lack of a CNN type worldwide network. It is about the incredible lightness of a DDM being.


Ha Ha.


Seriously bring in one of these DDM jokers for interrogating the captured terrorist . he will be singing like a canary even before you could say "collateral damage".
No need for sodium amatol.

 
At 7:22 AM, Blogger the worthy duck said...

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At 7:33 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

this is why I say that the CISF now CSF is going to be the most important paramilitary service in the future.


protecting industrial targets is imperative and may require the KGB green skin approach.

 
At 8:07 AM, Blogger maverick said...

There is considerable public pressure to humiliate the bodies of the killers right now. There is open talk of burning the bodies of the killers.

But as most people are all well aware - India's traditions require that the body of an adversary be disposed according to the adversary's religious rites. The logic of this is that Indians do not hold a grudge with the dead. Our differences are limited to this realm and not the next one.

I am not interested in an argument about this - this is quite simply - the way it is. These traditions draw on the deepest and most profound spiritual thinking in India's history and it cannot be changed.

However right now - this presents a problem right now - local Muslim groups have refused to dispose of the bodies of the killers. Frankly - no Muslim in India wants to touch the bodies much less recite the final prayer for them. And when I look at the bodies of the women and children killed by the terrorists in this incident - I can completely understand the behaviour of India's muslims.

Unfortunately we only know the kuniyats (battlefield names) of the dead men. The kuniats are what Ajmal Qasab has told us. We do not know their names or their families or where they lived. A number of the bodies are charred or head injuries that prevent direct visual identification. The usual approach followed by 15th Corps HQ in Srinagar - to put up a website with photos of the dead terrorists is unlikely to work in this case. The Corps website is often the *only* way in which mothers and fathers of the dead terrorists know that their children have passed on. In the present case this wont work the bodies are badly damaged.

If the families of the dead killers (wherever they may be - UK, Pakistan, etc...) want to apply for the bodies they should approach the Indian mission in their respective country. Perhaps a DNA based identification is possible in some cases.

I say this because I know a number of families in places like UK, and Pakistan simply do not know what has happened to their missing sons. They are dimly aware that their children are mixed up with extremist groups but they have no knowledge of anything more than that and we in India have no quarrel with the families - our conflict was with their children only as long as they posed a threat to our citizens.

Again I am not interested in a discussion on whether this should be done or not.

I only want to point out that We may have to dispose of the bodies without religious rites because there is no one here that wants to these killers interred on Indian soil.

If someone thinks one of these bodies belongs to their family - they should please approach the Indian mission in their country and be prepared to provide something that may help the Mumbai Police establish identity.

Once identity is established - something can hopefully be worked out.

 
At 11:43 AM, OpenID rotflmao said...

thus speaketh our RAW man...

 
At 12:16 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

Creamate the bodies and then throw the ashes out into the harbor bay. ...or donate them to a medical school.

 
At 12:49 PM, Blogger maverick said...

I do not want a debate here on this matter here - please take it elsewhere. I don't want to waste space here.

I have stated it the way it is and that is all. It it is too much for your tender ears - go listen to someone else.

My comment is aimed at the relatives of those young men in certain countries who fall into extremist organisations due to social dysfunctions in these countries.

If the parents or relatives of the killers in those countries would like the bodies back - they should speak to the people at the Indian diplomatic missions in their country and be prepared to provide the necessary identification. This may be the only hope for such people to get to see their sons one last time.

If they do not want to see their sons - that is fine. We will do whatever we deem necessary.

And one more thing.

Presently Ajmal Qasab is being detained without any specific charge. Unlike Raheel Shaikh - Ajmal Qasab is not a citizen of India and he entered the country illegally with the sole intention of committing mass murder - he is not entitled to any legal protections or human rights. As he is not a recognised combatant in any army, he is not entitled to the protections afforded by the Geneva convention. He will remain in detention indefinitely.

I realise that some of his friends in other countries may find that situation unsatisfactory. However stupid stunts to interfere in this detention are unwelcome and the consequences of such foolishness will be quite grave. Those people who are contemplating such actions should try thinking about other things.

I cannot comment on whether he will be tried in a court of law. That is entirely up to the Government of India.

However should Ajmal Qasab go to court - people in certain countries can follow the case closely to get a sense of what naturally happens when their children fall into extremist organisations.

 
At 12:58 PM, Blogger maverick said...

People with tender ears and those weak of heart should stay clear of this blog for the foreseeable future.

Please go to the forum and gas off there or listen to the dulcet tunes of the Hon. Webmaster who is now trying to decide the Euro-Rupee exchange rate or complain about how the CMs of Gujurat or Kerala were treated.

After seeing Sri. Karkare go down like that I am in a particularly black mood and my tolerance for bullshit low as it is - has become zero.

Stay clear of here unless you have something highly relevant to say.

I don't want to hear anything else.

 
At 2:37 PM, Blogger kgoan said...

Understanding the fear aspect

Okay, just a brief point to explain why this has shaken folk up:

The crucial aspect is the LeT/JuD or whatever they're called these days, angle. As you all know, every jihadi group has some sort of relationship to the Pak Army - formal or informal. Of all these groups the LeT (I'll keep calling them LeT) is unique. Unlike every other group, the LeT *is* the pak Army.

Folks need to grok this point: For example, in the media we frequently hear of the "rogue" ISI. This is, as I hope you all know, rubbish. The ISI is made up of officers on deputations from the Pak Army, it is no more "independent" than the pak artillery corps. It's part and parcel of the Pak Army. The ISI isn't a "state within a state", the Pak Army has that role.

A similar thing holds with the LeT.

The role the LeT plays is crucial. Everyone here should know the importance the officers mess plays within any armies structure in "bonding" officers together. In a rigorously hierarchical organisation, the officers mess is where every officer gets to be "one of us". The hierarchy still exists, but the officers mess "socialises" officers together.

A similar function holds in, say, police canteens. Ask any police officer and he'll tell you the importance of such places.

This is where the LeT comes in: It plays two crucial roles in the Pak system: One is to socialise the Pak army folk, across *all* ranks, into the "islamist" aspect. Note: Islam-ist, NOT Islam-ic. It acts as an outlet where some low ranker can speak on equal terms with a higher rank on "islam-ist warriorhood". It acts just as the officers mess does, but aimed at reinforcing the "jihadi" (in its army meaning) culture of the Pak Army.

It's other role is eqully crucial: there are a lot of non-army folk that are crucial to the pak Army (the engineers, scientists, plain civvies etc) tht have no formal entry to the "officers mess" culture. These folks entry into the Pak Army culture is via the LeT. i.e. the Islam-ist aspect.

The LeT is as much a part of the Pak Army as their various welfare organisations. The LeT is as important a glue in the Pak Army as the Agricultural Department. (For those of you folks who don't understand why that's important, and may seem amusing or unimportant, note that the pak army Agriculture Dept is more important for the average Pak Officer in his daily life, than the Pak nuclear command auhority. See it's the Agriculture Dept that plays a *crucial* role in plots being given to officers. It is *the* heart of the material reward system within the Pak Army).

The ISI can't act outside it's Pak Army authority - but the LeT can because of it's "across all ranks" and "islamist" nature. A bearded havaldar is equal to a clean shaven colonel in a LeT social gathering. No, this is not a contradiction. The ISI acts on Pak Army instructions from a top-down hierarchy. The LeT ensures te Pak Army has a bottom up feedback from it's Islam-ist rank and file.

Now here's the point:

The chatter and worry is that the LeT aspect of the Mumbai attack may be an indicator that the long anticipated and much heralded split in the Pak Army is finally starting to emerge.

If the Pak Army hierarchy wasn't the one giving orders or "policy direction" that lead to Mumbai, then the "split" is actually here. Note: The *crucial" point here is *not* the attack. It's the length of time the attackers spent in training - the chatter is that the Pak command didn't *know* these people were in training!!!!

That is breath taking!

Usually Pak Army knows who's who and what they're upto in a general sort of way - policy without detail. Detail is left to lower levels so that the Pak Army command has deniability.

But here chatter says the Pak command was desperately trying to find out who these guys were as the events unfolded. And given that it involved marine assault and regular army like training, not some silly running around in the FATA hills, this has got a large number of folk worried.

Seriously worried - like is there regular LeT army folks training to seize something in Pakistan say?

That's the worry outsde Pak, and the near panic in Pak command - or so the chatter goes.

More later.

kg.

 
At 2:51 PM, Blogger kgoan said...

Mav:

Thing is it may not have been pointless. I do't want to sound like Prafool and company here, but the question remains: what if the message wasn't for us but for the Pak Army command?

The two points against this are:

1. Kiani himself. He ran the ISI for years, it's *seems* virtually impossible his commanders lost control so badly.

2. Karkare. If it was a deliberate "hit" than it's Pak Army command all the way - lower levels in the Pak Army jihadi control handling details on upper command policy direction.

3. The embassy attack in Afghanistan.

These three points are against the "lost control" worry.

But. . .

 
At 2:54 PM, Blogger kgoan said...

This is where your points 3, 4 and 7 need an answer.

But if the paks have lost a *degreee* of control, they'll be working overtime to ensure they have control again - and they're never going to admit it - to dangerous given that Uncle is Not Happy and they're terrified of what might happen if the loss of control is confirmed.

 
At 3:12 PM, Blogger kgoan said...

Hi Mani:

Thanks for the kind words. And yes that seems to be true.

But the great Lizard may have chewed of more than it can swallow with the financial crisis.

It really is bad at the moment. I think they're in bigger trouble than it appears - in fact I reckon they're in bigger trouble than the Americans/west.

The financial crisis for the rest of us is just that - a financial and economic crisis, serious as it is - and it is terrifyingly serious - for the Chinese it's a lot more, if that's possible: it's also a crisis for the power base of the CCP.

Personally, I'm looking forward to the crisis *deepening*. I reckon we can get out of it a lot more than we lose. It'll be bad for us, devastating for the US, but catastrophic for the Chinese commies.

That's my view anyway.

 
At 5:09 PM, Blogger Sparsh said...

KGoan,

Have you taken a look at Shezad's latest article on the Mumbai attack?

Given that he acts as an ISI lifafa and what you are saying, hmmm ...

 
At 5:38 PM, Blogger Rakam said...

Proper treatment of terrorist corpses? What a ridiculous side track.

As for obtaining meaningful cooperation from the Paks - what has six years of engagement yielded? Can anbody point to one concrete achievement of absorbing so much punishment and never saying anything in return? What is the end game for the Pakistan problem? The one positive result of non-response which was the turning Pakistan's barbaric urges inwards seems to terrify some as much as watching the jihadis blow up various world cities. Why does India throw out a helpful hand just when the Pakistan boat looks like it is about to tip? Most people who find that they have dug themselves in a hole just stop digging. The Indian elite dig faster.

Why is India sacrificing its interests so that the US can breathe easier on the Durand line. The only thing that will make the Americans take this seriously - if that is desirable - is if they think India will react. All these calls for reflection, and prove and whatnot is to take away the anger of the Indian population, and buy time for the elites to direct the minds of their people to cricket scores. If India wants to either punish or compel Pakistan it has to react fast, or the window of opportunity has been closed.

 
At 5:42 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

The body of the dead must be shown respect . regardless of who it belonged to whilst alive .

 
At 5:47 PM, Blogger naveen said...

I do not understand the nuances of relationship between ISI, GOP and LET ,however I am clear about one thing you cannot address or deal with LET/ISI directly for while the former is a banned terrorist organization which has changed names in the past to avoid ban, latter is Pakistan's intelligence service under their govt control (if it is not then it no longer is a part of GOP and needs to be declared a rogue organisation just like the LET and disbanded ).

Now coming to the question what is the role of GOP ? or in other words is Pakistan responsible for this attack in Mumbai.

My answer is YES , this despite the fact that LET/ISI may or may not be under the control of the political system in Pakistan.

I would like to present a simple analogy , I have pet DOG which contracts rabies and say on one fine day it bites my neighbour , then can I get off the hook by saying that the DOG is mad and I do not have any responsibility towards my neighbour's loss , and yeah do arguments like "look at times it bites me too , we both are facing the same issue " .


Having said that I am angry at the DDM and the GOI for their overall handling of the blasts ,while the former was literally insensitive while covering the tragedy , so much so that they even compromised the lives of couple of British hostages hiding from the terrorists.

The GOI is busy with reshuffling of the cabinet doing dammage control for the forthcoming LS elections, bringing up the Malegaon issue and name calling the BJP for diverting public attention.

What is even more disgusting is the fact that GOI is yet to do an official press release and brief the DDM/IDm about the isue and put forth an official pov from the PMO/GOI.

Pakistan in the mean time has rightly asked for proof/evidence in this regards for our Maanneeya PM ji did indicate the involvement of a foreign nation however not only did he as usual resort to political correctness by not explicitly naming the country he never cared to substantiate his claims.

 
At 5:58 PM, Blogger Faizi said...

kgoan,
Thanks for your response, and your interesting analysis. Regarding this, it could also be possible that while the Embassy attack was a planned one by the ISI, the attack in Mumbai could indicate a split in their hierarchy. It could also be a renewal of an attempt to play both sides, with the civilian members of govt taking the heat and pretending that they are not in complete control, while the Army again expands its role in state terrorism. I don't think it is a coincidence that the number of attacks and their seriousness has increased ever since Musharraf left office. It could also be that he was an obstacle to such a policy.

Maverick,
If kgoan's thesis is true, why should we expect any honest accounting from their Intelligence chief? He could simply lie as before.

 
At 5:59 PM, Blogger kgoan said...

Sparsh:

As we know, the standard Pakee response to anything for years has been "we're not to blame", "rogue elements" etc. This is their usual "deniability" fallback.

This has worn thin, and the US has taken the rather original tack of saying "okay, we believe you, and we're going to help you by bombing the crap ot of your "out of control areas" and your "rogue elements", over the last few months.

The "chatter" I posted is from folks who stopped believing the pakees giving this serious consideration this time.

Re SSS:

SSS is affiliated with our favorite Pakee Generals FRIENDS network.

Do you recall 5 or so years back when a "famous" article was published on some obscure "central asia" news site of an interview with two supposed "former KGB agents" called "Sasha and Misha"?

That raticle put into our mythical KGB agents mouths all the standard RAPE language of the time. More to the point, a basic textual analyisi on that article will show reakable similarites with SSS' writing style.

The FRIENDS link was trivial to show at the time because there existed a supposed "Baloch" news site that would post a lot of stuff that correlated with the FRIENDS articles that Beg and Co. would publish.

Interesting point: Some of the stuff also corrlated with Pehgals Defence articles along the lines of Major Amin. (One of the reasons I never trusted the Orbat people - including our little foreign friend who has now made a re-appearance on BR to hang crap on the NSG with his mythical "15 min response" rubbish, and is getting his head handed to him by GJman and others on the forum - it wasn't just Ravis past, it was the company he hangs with as well).

Later,

kg.

 
At 6:10 PM, Blogger kgoan said...

Faizi:

Yes, that's possible. We don't know just yet. The pakees are frightened - but we do *not* know what off!

It's not just the American or our response, somethings rattled them quite seriously.

It is highly unlikely key civs are "in the know" to be "pretending" about anything.

See, the civ communication net is owned by the Americans. And we do have our own entry into them that's even more pervassive than the US. There is simply no way the civs/Zardari are into this play, in my opinion.

 
At 7:01 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Kgoan,

Gen. Pasha needs to come to New Delhi and clear this up.

I know there is a sense of shame - the denials they are putting out on this are so transparent - the sense of shame is obvious.

Despite what anyone may have said - there is no intention to shame them. We simply need answers.

Every moment they delay this - the worse this will get.

 
At 7:20 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Rakam and Naveen,

Kaam ki baat karo nahi to door raho yahan se.

I have made it very clear what I want.

Faizi,

Let him come first then we can see whether he has told us the truth or not.

He should come and talk to us - nahin aaya toh bahut problem hoga.

 
At 7:21 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Sparsh

Link?

 
At 7:44 PM, Blogger naveen said...

Mav..

Are you serious about the visit of Ahmed Pasha to N Delhi ? rather do you think it will yield desired results (may I know what are your expectations ?).

I usually use layman logic to look at such things , in this context my question would be if a country as powerful and influential as US is having hard time tackling the Al-Queda (specially when its known that the US has literally arm twisted Pakistan to actually assist the former in its quest for Osama and his ilk), given the GOI's political clout and will , what can India expect from GOP ?


I understand that all out war or even an under cover mission in Pakistan is ruled out and the only way to nab the culprits is to somehow get the GOP to do it for us , but don't you think for that we need to have the world community rallying behind us and this requires appropriate coverage by the media devoid of useless spin and a firm directive from the PMO/GOI.


My first post was about the way Media and GOI have responded to the attacks. Even before we start to engage GOP in a meaningful dialouge we need to reform our Media (print/electronic) for that is how the entire world community comes to know about the developments in the sub-continent and eventually manage to generate public support which goes a long way in gathering support from world community.

 
At 7:50 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Naveen,

If I wasn't serious I would not be talking about it.

Bring me something useful only take the rest for the forum.

 
At 7:52 PM, Blogger kgoan said...

Mav,

Something really weird: Some folk are wondering if an org close to Nawaz Shariffs people knew or had some inkling about things beforehand. . .

 
At 8:04 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Sparsh - okay saw it - ATOI.

 
At 8:13 PM, Blogger maverick said...

kg,

That is really weird.

Nawaz's people have links to TJ not to LeT/MDI. The old connection was via the father who patronised the TJ.

TJ and MDI don't see eye to eye. That is why the Guardian reporter saw a sign on the Faridkot mosque - "Tablighis not allowed". Ahl-e-Hadith folk don't like Tablighis fishing on their turf.

 
At 8:42 PM, Blogger Rishi said...

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JL02Df05.html

The Syed Saleem Shahzad article Asia Times Online, nonchalantly explaining the whole Mumbai operation.

 
At 9:08 PM, Blogger kgoan said...

Mav,

Yeah, the Tablighis are despised for turning folk into "sheep rather than lions" as the criticism against them goes from the hardliners.

And none of the aggresive types will trust an organisation whose "secret" headquarters is said to be in India.

Or an org which was said to be designed to challenge the Saudis stranglehold on "legitimacy" within the faith and having so many senior office holders being ex-GoI types. Or so the rumours go.

Regardless, its completely bizzare - unless the "close to the Shariffs" meant a new contact that the dynamic duo made while in exile. . .

It can't be the Tablighis, at least not the ones we're aware of - that's impossible and I'd stake any amount of money/reputation on that!

 
At 9:18 PM, Blogger Rakam said...

"I know there is a sense of shame - the denials they are putting out on this are so transparent - the sense of shame is obvious." - you must be psychic.

 
At 7:03 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

A general point - I wonder how much faith one should put into electronic intercepts.

It is impossible to tell by simply looking whether someone who is learning the breast stroke will go swimming the oceans or the lakes.

Note to the other readers.

Sure if you want to move 100,000 troops away from the western border - by all means go ahead. I guess the Americans will simply send a few B-52 alongside the predators to demarcate the Durand Line. From what I hear they are moving additional assets into the sea anyway.

After independence when Jeh took over the company was in very bad shape. There was talk of bankruptcy and the whole family moved to the top floor of the hotel. From there working round the clock - Jeh rebuilt the fortune. Today these "boys" have burnt down that house - people are really pissed.

Kg,

It could be someone saw money change hands. It could have happened in the exile or it could have happened in Karachi.

 
At 7:32 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

the indian government has to think covert . Chai biskoot invitations will only end up causing guffaws.

Moreover the "not request " line works only when you hold a gun to someones head. Other than that its just hot air, like cold start and a lot of fart.

 
At 7:51 AM, Blogger maverick said...

SSS has been on this fission inside the LeT stuff for a while now.

Dec. 6th 2003. Interview of Dr. Dawood Qasmi (formerly head of LeT Sindh)

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/EL06Df01.html

Dec. 6th 2005 The role and arrest of Arif Qasmani

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/GL06Df01.html

Both Qasmani and Qasmi are both allegedly in Pakistani custody.

 
At 7:56 AM, Blogger maverick said...

SSS has pointed out that JuD received a lot of money after the quake.

 
At 8:05 AM, Blogger maverick said...

dfc.

Arre bhai .. pyaar se bol rahe hain...

They may be trying to get their story straight. And SSS' point seems to be that double dealing the LeT will extremely costly for the PA.

That point notwithstanding - Gen. Pasha has to come to New Delhi.

We can't have people in Pakistan servicing random contracts like this.

 
At 4:26 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Selective reading produces amusing analyses from the giants of the forum.

The euro has been converted, orgies have been implicated, AK has been dissed again.

All of this based on 4 paragraphs in some news report.

I para 3 of that same report are two important factors: 17% lower usage of uranium and 92% plant up-time.

How can geniuses miss reading what they themselves cut & paste?

 
At 4:50 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Hi Mav,

I don't have much to add to this business of "proof" of Pakistani involvement. It seems rather obvious to me that there would be extensive satellite coverage of the region, both Indian and American. A boat traveling from Karachi to Mumbai should easily stick out easily in IR imagery.

 
At 6:31 PM, Blogger kgoan said...

The amount of info coming out about previous intel and warnings about the Mumbai attack simply doesn't gel with frantic Pakee efforts to figure out what's going on.

The Pakees have lost control of something big. And GoI is getting strident.

Somethings badly wrong here.

 
At 6:44 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 6:50 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Hi kg,

It does seem like there is a smoking gun discovered.

What do you think is the bush+condi plan for their last hurrah?

 
At 7:14 PM, Blogger kgoan said...

Hi Mani,

I don't think it's only a Bush-Condi plan - it's a US strategic response that's been put into play I'd bet - one that Obama and Clinton will back.

Because if the US National Security establishment hasn't gamed out a response to a mass terror attack on India traced back to Pak and; already have a set of responses ready to go for different broad circumstances, I'll print out this page and *eat it*.

 
At 10:42 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Anyway,

This attack has once again shown that India has the largest population of fifth columnists in the world. Not in percentage terms of course but in terms of absolute numbers certainly .

There are those invaluable samples of humanity already on western networks linking the attacks with anything from poverty to Kashmir.


I need not name them because all of us our fairly acquainted with their names anyway.

On a different note , there are some gung ho goras talking about gun control and how the civilian population needs to be armed.

They believe if this attack had happened in the civilian population itself would have responded.


Oh yes just like they respond every time a school shooting takes place . I mean all of us are forgetting something, this kind of a thing happens all the time in America . the only difference being that instead of the perpetrators being special forces they are usually school kids with a a gun.

So much for America and control.






Gora trash go bury yourself!

 
At 10:46 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Here's a list of some school shootings from wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/School_shootings

 
At 10:57 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Some 40 muslims have been killed in this attack. and I can bet my bottom dollar a few of them died doing their duty at places like the Taj, as staff members . of course a lot of them must have been hapless bystaders at the CST.


Point I am trying to make is , there is the everyday muslim. going about his work and also in the line of fire and being defined by a lot of things other than some passages in a book.


it is time to know this muslim to encourage him. it is time to back more Abdul Hamids and Kalams rather than alienate our own people through arm chair riot threats .



Remember most of them are Indian Muslims.

 
At 12:15 AM, Blogger ldev said...

Because if the US National Security establishment hasn't gamed out a response to a mass terror attack on India traced back to Pak and; already have a set of responses ready to go for different broad circumstances, I'll print out this page and *eat it*.

Kgoan,

The gamed out response seems to be to send a stream of high ranking officials to keep both sides talking to the officials if not to each other. John Mccain is in India and no sooner does he leave than Condoleeza Rice arrives and no sooner does she leave than Admiral Michael Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff arrives. And then you have the officials from the FBI and Scotland Yard camping in Bombay.

Any overt Indian mobilization will result in Pakistan pulling back some or all of its troops from the Afghanistan border (some 100,000 of them according to published information), which in turn will seriously hurt US/NATO efforts in Afghanistan.

Based on Pakistan's ability to string the Americans along for all these years on the issue of cross border raids into Afghanistan from Pakistan based militants and its ability to ignore India's requests in the past to extradite people such as Dawood Ibram, I dont think anything short of the threat of overt military action by the US and India acting together, will compel Pakistan to move towards dismanting Murder Inc. on its soil.

 
At 1:33 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 1:39 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

has anybody read the novelette " A colder War"?


it basically combines H.P Lovecraft's Cthulu mythos with a cold war scenario. quite interesting , especially a reference to the notion that a fictional Yamrika had completely based its strategic deterrence on nuclear means. whereas the soviet union was using shoggoths and US congressmen were talking about a "shoggoth gap" as it were.


I think this observation is very relevant today . if one has to coerce a state with both nuke as well as terrorist capability , your own nukes will not really accomplish that goal for you.

Our nukes are good to protect our sovereignty and deter everybody else's nukes , but what to do about the semi-state terror apparatus in the neighbour's camp?

I think the answer lies in a broader understanding of "strategic deterrence".

 
At 2:32 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

yeah ! Victory!

Dr Chawal has declared that Pakistan must have Chai-biskoot with India at the earliest . Britannia shares are already going up post this announcement . This time the Kamandus will get to stay longer in India and will actually get to do some sightseeing in volvo buses provided the Ga** vernment.

The yamrikhans will have donuts of course or may be one last pretzel ...

 
At 6:33 AM, Blogger the worthy duck said...

The Indian Muslim is far far more ballsy and patriotic than our sekooolaar crowd who are out to "protect" them.


I saw at least three muslims say on TV that is haadse ka jawab dena chahiye . one chap said this is akin to somebody slapping your dad in your own house . he wants mooh todh jawab .


of course the fifth coulmnists in the media are busy potraying a protest march as a peace rally .


yeah go networks keep catering to the Chalo yaar , let's get a 3BHK yaar!


What a shamefully stratified society we have in India today!

 
At 6:57 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

This Ajmal Qasab is a *real* piece of work.

Mani,

People are taking back bearings and I imagine that will reveal all sorts of things.

kg,

There is an unusually large flock of vultures gathering. Just check out the number of people vending BPJs and conflict resolution gear. This bombay - everything is an opportunity for profit.

Ldev,

Murder Inc. is staffed at the management level by the PA. The US is a PA client. I doubt there is any desire to shut down Murder Inc.

Neither side wants to escalate.

The Americans are moving to protect the "democracy experiment". Apparently this is the key to ensuing the security of their transit trade patterns.

 
At 7:48 AM, Blogger murali said...

Mav,

Are you suggesting we must swallow this outrage and just carry on?

Will we able to get rid of this unholy nexus-China,US support to Pak.


Or is india heading for disintegration?

Can you share your thoughts and gut feeling?

Perceival Spear has said in his famous book,(A History of India)which is a standard reference for Civil Service Exams,that India has always had the urge to unity without the power to achieve it.

Has the Congress party under nehru chewn more than what it can swallow?


Kashmir is a lost cause.Emotionally many parts of NE(mizoram,nagaland,even hindu manipur) are alienated from india.

I know for sure the tamil intelligentsia has no love lost for india.

Do you think india will be more maneagable or viable without some or all of these regions?

Or will these ideas be non starters or dangerous.

Can you enlighten me?

 
At 9:29 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello Murali,

I don't have time for rona- dhona.
Kuch kaam ki baat karo - yaar.

 
At 9:48 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

nobody , not even the kashmiris want to leave India. "Separatism" is a nice tactic that some states have perfected to get freebies from India.


The mizos gave up on it sometime back and the nagas are joining the Indian army in increasing numbers.

the Tam intellectuals have nowhere to go anyway .

The kashmiris voted in large numbers because they think "day to day" governance is important. that doesn't reek of separatism but opportunism. everybody knows Azadi is a pipe dream.


The Indian union grows in strength everyday and a million mutinies now is nothing but an expression of a huge landmass being overhauled.I would suggest that we should not see a snapshot and think that everything is going bust , far from it.

In any case you are getting to see that snapshot now because of the media . the same things were there even before , its just that coverage was limited.

we should instead focus on how best to incorporate those lands that got estranged during 1947. since there is huge opposition to the idea itself both within and without.

 
At 11:42 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Maria sahab has spoken to the media today - so it is official now - Qasab will be brought before a court and made to answer for his crimes.

Qasab is more than your garden variety psychopath. Initially I suspected that he was on "performance enhancers" (cocaine, scopalamine, amphetamines, steriods etc..) but now I think he doesn't need all that.

 
At 12:04 PM, Blogger maverick said...

A limited number of things can be found out from direct testimony.

A subset of those can be verified.

And only a small number of these verified things that can be made to fit a coherent explanation - an explanation that can guide future actions.

The back bearings are turning up all sorts of things and hindsight is always twenty-twenty.

 
At 1:28 PM, Blogger maverick said...

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1081204/jsp/frontpage/story_10204605.jsp

This Qasab is makes me really uneasy.

 
At 1:32 PM, Blogger maverick said...

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5280084.ece?token=null&offset=12&page=2

more

 
At 2:53 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Daura Aam (Aska near Muzzafarabad) duration 21 days.
Daura Khaas (Ugi near Manshera) duration 10 weeks.

Naval Course (PNS Iqbal?) duration?

http://www.hindu.com/2008/12/02/stories/2008120259961000.htm

 
At 4:00 PM, Blogger maverick said...

http://www.rediff.com/news/2008/dec/03mumterror-ats-finds-terrorist-who-trained-with-kasab.htm

got one more.

Mohammad Ghouse, a Hyderabad resident now in Karnataka Police custody

 
At 4:17 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

There is tons of detailed information about this Kasab guy in the print media. Why isn't the DDM pursuing his family and putting their faces on TV rather than inviting all forms of jokers to say inane things?

For that matter, Larry and his CNN jokers could also be doing the same instead of swallowing this "stateless actor" nonsense.

 
At 4:37 PM, Blogger HN said...

DFC, just saw that link you posted. agree with you. Some try to do a Ricky Ponting on us, which is a sure sign that our message has gone through. btw, some vulture trouble in piracy thread too, in case you are interested.

kgoan, little Lord Fauntleroy produces a stampede of lemmings in the forum. Normal times one would hardly care, but this is plain rude....

 
At 5:45 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Zardari is being given as much room as possible to distance himself and his people from it.

But the clock is ticking.

The period of mourning will end soon. After that the proper rituals will have to be performed to ensure the soul's journey into the next world.

 
At 7:38 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Hn,

That Euro trash peddler gets on my nerves most of the time anyway. His manner of posting is very reminiscent of a more informed gora patronising the natives.

I think people on DF would remember that it was this same guy who was screaming till a week before the Tabar was deployed, that India was doing nothing in its backyard blah blah , India is weak etc..


Now when the Tabar has seen action he is suddenly talking about "problems".



Typical gora way of looking at India .. "Join us" , but don't steal our thunder . Always play a humble deputy to the gora sahib.


The only reason why this imbecile is tolerated in DF is because he has some more brochure information about european systems than most members. But frankly speaking the "perspective" he brings can easily be replicated by some other members.

 
At 8:25 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Massa! Here's evidence Massa! The Pukis have done it Massa! See , I have been a good boy Massa! Now can I have chai biskoot with Gen Biryani Massa! where would I be Massa , if you don't remind me every now and then about my place Massa!

 
At 8:36 PM, Blogger maverick said...

There is a wide gap in the available information between the time that Addl. CP Sadanand Date was injured and the Qualis containing Sri. Karkare and senior officers was ambushed.

A rough sketch is that Ajmal Qasab and Mohd. Ismail were on the roof. They shot Addl. CP Date on the way down the staircase and then repositioned to ambush the Qualis. Why did they reposition to intercept the Qualis?

Were they instructed to do that? or were they simply pursuing an evasion strategy. The grenades changed the balance in the stairwell - that is what led to Addl. CP Date's position being exposed, but then there is a gap between there and the point that Qasab and Ismail were ready to ambush the Qualis.

TimesNow has Sri. Karkare on camera as he leaves CST. You can see him get a few words with DCP Korgaonkar and other Railway Police officials. I imagine there are media people who knew where he was going and while no footage of Cama Hospital is available - there is no reason to believe that there was no media presence there.

We understand very little about Qasab and Ismail's path. Why did they choose to wander in that way? - who were they in contact with while they were walking? were they directed to move in a particular way?

They were intercepted just short of teen batti - if you take a left at teen batti - you end up on Walkeshwar road - straight towards Governor's house - so where were these two going?

An employee of the J&K government has been picked for questioning because he was phoned by an LeT operative in Muzzafarabad and asked to watch local TV channels. There were continous updates of the situation via Twitter and Pakistani led blogs and fora in UK.

Until all the gaps are filled in this sequence and we corroborate the account of Ajmal Qasab - the case will stay open.

I am very very uncomfortable with this Qasab guy - unlike the others we have seen in Bombay - he has been trained in interrogation evasion techniques.

The word "fidayeen" usually refers to a group of people who go all out to seek the objective. It is a different mentality from a suicide bomber - fidayeen don't *have* to die in their missions - a good number survive in the J&K theatre.

 
At 2:31 AM, Blogger mukunda said...

Hi M,
I am happy that you are back. Atleast some one will knowledgeable can clear the air.
"TimesNow has Sri. Karkare on camera as he leaves CST. You can see him get a few words with DCP Korgaonkar and other Railway Police officials. I imagine there are media people who knew where he was going and while no footage of Cama Hospital is available - there is no reason to believe that there was no media presence there."

1)What you suggest here is that:- Some one was keeping tab on Karkare movement and tipped the Jehadis as to where Shri Karkare was heading? Some one from the media?

2) Look at the way media has turned patriot overnight. I strongly suspect this was a stage managed all along by CIA/MI6 folks. Let both the nations fight meanwhile let the intel agenices eat peanuts. Is to the set the stage for icoming US Administration. It has been done at a very critical time:- Elections in India,Obama admin moving in.
with best mukunda.

 
At 2:32 AM, Blogger mukunda said...

Hi Mav,
One request:- Kindly forget the DF. let move on! You too have moved out.
with best wushes,
mukunda

 
At 3:26 AM, Blogger mukunda said...

Hi M,
Your posts are indicative of micro-level situation i.e which jehadi or was involved or it ties with LET.... but your posts do not illustrate any macro level picture i.e the brains behind, the people who gain... Why is it so?
with best wishes,
mukunda

 
At 5:51 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Mukunda,

There is no information available about the higher level picture.

This is an open case right now.

If Gen. Pasha comes to Delhi and clears the air - then it will be possible to proceed calmly towards resolution.

As you know the entire south-west Punjab area - where most of these Army people have their ancestral homes or relatives is currently exposed. Most of Pakistan's reserves are tied up in the Western front. After Parakram - the mobilisation idea is meaningless - Cold Start philosophy symbolises this. In that sense the Pakistanis are within their rights to feel threatened by an angry India - and yes India is very very very angry. Tata family ka ghar jala diya saalon ney - People are saying that may be Pakistan Army needs to understand exactly how that feels.

On the Western front - the Pentagon is keen reduce the Pakistani ability to field terrorists in Afghanistan. If the Pakistanis pursue a confrontationist path and move their 100,000 troops away from the western border - the Americans will simply wipe out every terrorist training camp there using their airforce and the Pakistan Army will face the music from its own people - most notably the Islamists. This will contribute to the general feeling of irrelevance that pervades Pakistan whenever the word "Army" is mentioned. I can see why such an option is attractive to Zardari and company. If they prove the Army is irrelevant then maybe the Americans will ensure that Zardari has his hands on the nuke.

Alternatively if the Pakistanis do nothing in the hope of preserving their honour and dignity. India will withdraw the unflinching support it has offered for international monetary relief. Also India will state its case about terrorism from Pakistan before the world and submit all evidence available at its disposal to anyone that asks for it. Such a move will put all of Pakistani society on trial publicly. What little investor confidence has emerged will dissipate and the Pakistani Army's ability to project economic leadership through its Fauji/Shaheen/Bahria foundations will end.

Whoever ordered this in the Army exercised exceptionally poor judgement.

Samjhdari isi mein hain ki Gen. Pasha Delhi aaye aur Sahab se mile.

Galti maaf ki ja sakti hain par badtameezi ka anjaam achaa nahi hoga.

 
At 11:30 AM, Blogger Winger said...

Here is the latest from Syed - http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JL05Df01.html

 
At 12:03 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Yes Winger - just read that.

SSS is fleshing out the point I made earlier that the PA doesn't want a scrap with the LeT - it is the only group they are still on speaking terms with and given the bounty that the PA has bestowed upon the Lashkar - a revolt would be very painful for the Pakistani Army.

I am 500% sure that the syed Deobandi purebloods in the NWFP would simply roll over and listen to a Gujjar Ahl-e-Haddithi like that and rush to the Pakistan Army's side. Ofcourse the TTP would issue a ceasefire if India attacks.

What is doubtful is whether the Jihadis running to the Eastern front would intend to hold the PA's back or simply be keener to put a gun to the back of the PA's head.
I suspect it would be the latter.

Someone appears to be putting words into Hafiz Saeed's mouth. All this talk of taking the war into the Arabian sea to interdict India's ONG carriers and to take the war to Kandla. This is an old song that one has heard before albeit from a different mouth.

Instead of holding bullshit press conferences - the ISI Chief should come to Delhi and answer Sahab's questions.

 
At 7:20 PM, Blogger maverick said...

It is time more people see this.

http://www.treasury.gov/press/releases/hp996.htm

May 27, 2008
HP-996

Treasury Targets LET Leadership

Washington - The U.S. Department of the Treasury today designated four individuals that hold leadership positions in Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LET), a Pakistan-based terrorist group with links to Usama bin Ladin and the al Qaida network.

"LET is a dangerous al Qaida affiliate that has demonstrated its willingness to murder innocent civilians," said Stuart Levey, Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence (TFI). "LET's transnational nature makes it crucial for governments worldwide to do all they can to stifle LET's fundraising and operations."

LET has conducted numerous attacks against Indian military and civilian targets since 1993. The Government of India implicated LET in the July 2006 attack on multiple Mumbai commuter trains, and in the December 2001 attack against the Indian Parliament. LET is also suspected of involvement in attacks in New Delhi in October 2005, and in Bangalore in December 2005. In March 2002, senior al Qaida leader Abu Zubaydah was captured at an LET safe house in Faisalabad, Pakistan.

LET arose in the early 1990s as the armed wing of the Sunni missionary movement Markaz-ud Dawa-wal-Irshad. Despite being banned by the Government of Pakistan in January 2002, LET continues to operate in Kashmir and engage in or support terrorist activities worldwide. LET was designated pursuant to U.S. Executive Order 13224 on December 20, 2001, and under UN Security Council Resolution 1267 on May 2, 2005. The U.S. Department of State named LET a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) on December 26, 2001.

Today's action was taken pursuant to Executive Order 13224, which targets terrorists and those providing financial, technological, or material support to terrorists or acts of terrorism. Any assets these designees have under U.S. jurisdiction will be frozen and U.S. persons are prohibited from engaging in any transactions with the designees.Identifying Information

Muhammad Saeed
AKAs: Hafiz Muhammad Saeed
Hafiz Saeed
Hafiz Sahib
Hafiz Mohammad Saeed
Hafez Mohammad Sayeed
Hafiz Mohammad Sayid
Hafiz Mohammad Syeed
Tata Ji
Hafiz Mohammad Sayed
Address: House No. 116E, Mohalla Johar, Town: Lahore, Tehsil
Lahore City, Lahore District, Pakistan
DOB: 5 June 1950
POB: Sargodha, Punjab, Pakistan
Father's Name: Kamal-ud-Din
National ID#: 3520025509842-7

Muhammad Saeed is LET's overall leader and chief and plays a key role in LET's operational and fundraising activities worldwide. Saeed oversaw the management of a terrorist training camp in Pakistan in 2006, including funding of the camp, which prepared militants to fight against Coalition forces in Afghanistan.

Saeed, in 2005, determined where graduates of an LET camp in Pakistan should be sent to fight, and personally organized the infiltration of LET militants into Iraq during a trip to Saudi Arabia. That same year, Saeed arranged for an LET operative to be sent to Europe as LET's European fundraising coordinator.

Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi

AKAs: Zakir Rehman Lakvi
Zaki Ur-Rehman Lakvi
Zaki Ur-Rehman
Zakir Rehman
Abu Waheed Irshad Ahmad Arshad
Chachajee
Address 1: Barahkoh, P.O. DO, Tehsil and District Islamabad, Pakistan
Address 2: Chak No. 18/IL, Rinala Khurd, Tehsil Rinala Khurd, District
Okara, Pakistan
DOB: 30 December 1960
POB: Okara, Pakistan
Father's Name: Hafiz Aziz-ur-Rehman
National ID#: 61101-9618232-1

Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi is LET's chief of operations. In this capacity, Lakhvi has directed LET military operations, including in Chechnya, Bosnia, Iraq, and Southeast Asia. Lakhvi instructed

LET associates in 2006 to train operatives for suicide bombings. Prior to that, Lakhvi instructed

LET operatives to conduct attacks in well-populated areas.

Lakhvi, in 2004, sent operatives and funds to attack U.S. forces in Iraq. Lakhvi also directed an LET operative to travel to Iraq in 2003 to assess the jihad situation there.

In past years, Lakhvi has also played an important role in LET fundraising activities, reportedly receiving al Qaida-affiliated donations on behalf of LET.

Haji Muhammad Ashraf

AKA: Haji M. Ashraf
DOB: 1 March 1965
PPN: A-374184, Pakistani

Haji Muhammad Ashraf is LET's chief of finance, a position he has held since at least 2003. Ashraf traveled to the Middle East in 2003 and 2004, where he personally collected donations on behalf of LET. Ashraf assisted Saudi Arabia-based LET leadership in 2003 with expanding its organization and increasing its fundraising activities.

Mahmoud Mohammad Ahmed Bahaziq

AKAs: Mahmoud Bahaziq
Abu `Abd al-'Aziz
Abu Abdul Aziz
Shaykh Sahib
DOB: 17 August 1943
Alt DOB: 1943
Alt DOB: 1944
POB: India
Nationality: Saudi Arabian
Saudi Registration Number: 4-6032-0048-1

Mahmoud Mohammad Ahmed Bahaziq is an LET financier and is credited with being the main financier behind the establishment of the LET and its activities in the 1980s and 1990s. He has also served as the leader of LET in Saudi Arabia. In 2003, Bahaziq coordinated LET's fundraising activities with Saudi nongovernmental organizations and Saudi businessmen, and encouraged LET operatives to continue and accelerate fundraising and organizing activities. As of mid-2005, Bahaziq played a key role in LET's propaganda and media operations.

-30-

 
At 7:23 PM, Blogger maverick said...

http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/financial/2008/fil08051.pdf

 
At 9:49 PM, Blogger mukunda said...

Hi M,
Retaliation is definetly GOI's prerogative! but do you think that when investigators find out who did that and why,time would have run out. A new Govt.at India & USA would have sworn in and Pak mischief makers would have wriggled out. I think that is why the perpetrators chose such a time.

Do you think GOI will authorise a retaliation in the midst of an election.... your thoughts...

with best wishes,
mukunda

 
At 4:59 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Mukunda,

As Sri. Mukherjee has indicated in six days time - the last of the anteyesthi will have to be performed to ensure the pretatma's safe passage into the pitruloka.

Whatever is necessary will *have* to be done.

Elections are like the monsoon they come and go. But ultimately every farmer tils the land and will do its utmost to ensure that it retains its productivity.

Even friends of the Hon. Webmaster have realised that if this continues there will no economic progress - no one will want to come build reactors in India. Why this realisation could not come to them when they spat venom on Sri Karkare I do not know.

The simplest route out of this madness has been offered by Sahab - he has asked Gen. Pasha to come to Delhi.

If Gen. Pasha comes to Delhi - things can proceed in a civil fashion.

No one wants a war - not even the super sherdils of the Pakistan Army - because unlike the "ooh lets do Jihad.. I have one hand in my panties" crowd - the PA knows exactly what *real* war is. The Jihadi crowd seems to think that real war will be as simple as shooting up a school bus.

It doesn't work like that - without the advantage of land and local support - this kind of assymetric warfare will not be effective against a professional army if it does not hesitate to use artillery and air power.

Mr. Lakhwi will have a completely different idea of what war is should someone wipe Renala Khurd off the map.

Most of these Jihadis are so wound up on the cocktail of drugs and indoctrination - that they do not see the cost of war - the damage one does to oneself and ones' family. They have a naive idea of war and we have no obligation to keep it that way.

 
At 7:17 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

chai biskoot zindabad!
chai biskoot zindabad!

 
At 1:02 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Arrey baba ,

quit all this driving a wedge and chanakyaniti.


just support the good guys boss. Look there was bound to be a reaction from within the IMs against wahabbisation. Its becoming public now . If instead of this and that, DF simply says a terrorist is a terrorist is a terrorist, much better.

Empower people. don't scare them away and throw them into the waiting arms of the bigot.

The IM is like you and me . he needs our support and not faaltu threats for something he hasn't done.


Bring up Abdul Hamid . He was just a tailor , but he fought for India.


there's a lot happening in the realm of pop religion . much more than what a standard idiot on Df would care to see. don't get into us versus them . no point.


I have met IMs who have suffered in Arabia etc. once you become reasonably pally with them , they tell you the real issues. but what is he to do?
Just like your average chap from Gurdaspur wanting to go to Canada , this guy looks towards the gulf . it does not mean however that he likes it. its just easier given his name.


do the rajniti of 100 per cent , if possible of 105 per cent ( laughs) . but please don't start with 85 per cent which after you have accounted for region, language , caste , university , grocer etc ultimately comes down to

.0000001 per cent , that is


Just You.

 
At 1:13 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

your security forces are having trouble penetrating ghettos ? who the hell do you think is going to help?

Answer- Uniformed ex ghettoites.

 
At 7:49 PM, Blogger maverick said...

IIRC PI Salaskar's office was at Nagpada not at Azad Maidan.

 
At 8:03 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Interesting - Kashmiris are distancing themselves from the attack.

 
At 11:47 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Arre Bhaayo,
the bullpup design, ever since the steyr AUG, has always seemed more "slick" to some.


The chinese adopting it is therefore not surprising at all . this(China) is a bloody show and tell state and I had made a post about the exercise in Pandaland on DF many moons ago. I think I had copy pasted it here as well.

Anyway i like the classic assault rifle layout more than the Groza.

 
At 5:04 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Pukis: we will nuke ! we will nuke!

Yindian: But why? bhaat about aman and shaanti?

Pukis: Arrey Bho*sri ke tune mere chai me jaada shakkar dal di hai, aur biskoot bhi desi laaye ho!

Massa: hey believe him ! believe him! he's gonna nuke ! either get the proportions right or he'll nuke.

Yindian: Yes Massa . Absolutely Massa. I will get it right during the next round of chai biskoot massa!



Chai Biskoot Paindabad!

 
At 6:48 AM, Blogger Winger said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 6:50 AM, Blogger Winger said...

Gets more interesting if this is true - http://www.hindustantimes.com/Redir.aspx?ID=7819b518-bac3-41a4-a2c3-26e1e2d43a61&SectionName=HomePage

 
At 7:50 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

That bit about bypassing communication protocol makes it look like a private joke between Zardari and Kayani.

Either Zardari called himself and told Kayani that he had a hot tip that India was going to beat them up or Kayani called Zardari and told him India is going to beat him up.

It is best if the Pakistanis sort that out between themselves.

I *repeat* - prank calls and jokes aside - that was not a request that was made after the terrorist attacks.

The Laskhar hand is to blatantly obvious here to ignore - Gen. Pasha must come to Delhi and meet Sahab to clear this up.

And again I understand the sense of shame that pervades through all of Pakistan for the involvement of its territory and people in yet another international terrorist carnage. I also understand that deep down inside - every Pakistani finds the actions of terrorists in Mumbai disagreeable.

I can completely understand if the Pakistanis are simply too scared and to ashamed to face up this in public and that is inspiring this latest phase of defensive psychobabble.

But - Sahab simply has a few other questions that he needs answered. If Gen. Pasha comes to Delhi - things can proceed in a civilized fashion and a lot of unnecessary friction can be avoided.

 
At 11:42 AM, Blogger Winger said...

Maverick,

This is tangential to the topic but request your views on this.

In one of your earlier posts, you wrote:

"I freely admit that I was not a big fan of the UPA govt. when it came to power, but now I love this UPA Govt. It is a strategist's dream - it does what it is supposed to, using seasoned professionals and leaves absolutely nothing to chance. And most importantly of all - this government never makes a fuss or a racket."

From reading the media reports, it seems this government has made some serious missteps that have led to increased polarization of society as well as weakened the economic position of the country. I am trying to reconcile your comment with this perspective.

I have been an avid regular reader of your blog for the last year or more but decided to jump in only recently :-).

From my background perspective,I will say that Capt Anuj Nayyar was a batchmate and Maj Udai Singh was a senior and leave it at that.

 
At 12:08 PM, Blogger maverick said...

"bata dey... bata dey... bach jayega...

- Inspector Purohit to Chikna.. in the opening scene of Maqbool

 
At 12:26 PM, Blogger Winger said...

Zyada kuch hai nahin batane ko. Tired of a consultants life and looking to go back and do something different. Caught between two worlds...

 
At 12:41 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Winger,

I am not saying this government is without faults. Nobody is perfect. But when NDA left power - the escalation knob had been turned to its fullest. Now - through economic, political and diplomatic means - some tuning range has been introduced and we are still able to get things done without spilling *more* blood.

That to me - is a very big improvement.

BTW.. on a more immediate note:

I am deeply uneasy about this Qasab character. It is not that I don't think Police is up to it - but this guy sounds like a real piece of work. I am not sure the extent to which they can anticipate what sorts of masterpieces he will pull.

Usually it is a simple affair in Bombay- you catch someone bring him in for questioning. You know the local population and you know what sort of pressure is required to pull reliable information out. Also the suspect wants to live and thinks that giving you information is the only way to stay alive. So the suspect eventually cooperates - if not then.. well you move on.

When dealing with this guy - firstly he is not local and he has been hardened - the calibration in terms of pressure may be completely off. One is reduced to making intelligent guesses about what will work on him. Also he has been trained to resist interrogation - that makes all this guessing work difficult.

Add to that one doesn't really know his language or the inner details of his culture which can come in handy in cracking open his psychology. If you recall a fellow called Manager was interviewed some years ago and it took the interrogator about five minutes to realise he was lying and another minute to realise that threats to his mother and father would not work but a threat to his uncle and aunt would make him talk.

Locating such a pressure point for Qasab will be difficult. Between all this kuniyat stuff and the layers of security the Pakistanis may have built into his head (fake identity, ideological, etc...) - I think we will have a hard time getting him to cooperate.

 
At 12:45 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Winger,

Actually that quote from the movie maqbool was for the benifit of our friends next door.

It was *not* in response to your post. I had not read your post at the time of putting that there.

 
At 12:48 PM, Blogger maverick said...

hello Winger,

As someone who has seen the other side - I am sure you of all people can appreciate a desire to keep things civil.

 
At 4:23 PM, Blogger maverick said...

"Colonel Imam" kaun Jalalbadwala? Sultan Amir Tarar? ya koi aur?

 
At 8:36 PM, Blogger mukunda said...

Hi M,
1)""bata dey... bata dey... bach jayega... "
2)"Colonel Imam" kaun Jalalbadwala? Sultan Amir Tarar? ya koi aur?"

>> Samjdaro ke liye isahra hi kafi hey! But some of us have not watched maqbool! Can you expand?

>> Will this retaliation be a public song and dance affair or a very covert one!

>>I am too concerned with the panchatantra tale where two monkeys were fighting over a big fish, when a clever cat came in , divided the fish into three: tail,head, body. Cat took the major part(body) leaving the two monkeys with 2 small parts.

>> All this talk of Pakistan being declared a Terrorist state: is it real or the next govt. will cosy up to its friends pakistan.
with best wishes,
mukunda

 
At 8:37 PM, Blogger mukunda said...

Hi M,
Isn't all this tamasha related to the nuclear deal?
with best wishes,
mukunda

 
At 1:56 AM, Blogger kgoan said...

I think all the signs seem to indicate that GoI is about ready to launch an *overt* strike against Pakistan.

There'll be no "H&D" escape for them this time - and the smart mouthed, tactically brilliant "we'll move 1 lakh troops away from Pak-Afghan border" has back fired *raelly, really badly* against the Pakees in the US and especially Euroland.

Downside: I know all us jingos want this - but I can't help feeling uneasy at the level of support GoI is getting for this from the US and Euroland. Way, way more than the Russians seem to be offering - and that's just to strange for my comfort levels.

Euroland and the US are *encouraging* us to launch a "on-war" attack on Pakeeland. . . and it makes me nervous.

 
At 1:59 AM, Blogger kgoan said...

Sorry, that should be "non-war" attack NOT "on-war".

i.e. They want us to attack and "punish" the Pakees without a general war.

That is just bizzare. And I don't trust their guarantees - where's the IMF's overt threat of freezing of Pak money for example?

I just don't trust or like this situation.

 
At 1:59 AM, Blogger kgoan said...

Sorry, that should be "non-war" attack NOT "on-war".

i.e. They want us to attack and "punish" the Pakees without a general war.

That is just bizzare. And I don't trust their guarantees - where's the IMF's overt threat of freezing of Pak money for example?

I just don't trust or like this situation.

 
At 5:21 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

excuse me,

How is China going to bail out America anymore than it already has and vice versa?

Those who make these statements simply do not understand how the international trading system works.


America and China share a *hugely* symbiotic relationship already .


Americans buy chinese goods and the chines invest their trade surplus in American T-bills. This keeps the dollar stable and the yuan pegged to dollar. basically China *extends* credit to America to buy China's goods . In any Balance of payments , you have to pay what you buy. America pays for its import bill by borrowing from abroad. so if there is a current account deficit , there has to be a capital account surplus i.e you must import capital.

So china's reserves are not sitting in their central bank but invested in American treasury notes. the term reserves is a huge misnomer and i don't think a lot of people understand that it essentially represents a re-investment of dollars bought by the central bank in American govt securities.


So it is not free cash that is lying around with which China can "bail" out America.


Both countries have fiscal deficits. Amerika of course has the largest trade deficit as well, and has financed both deficits by printing notes which leaked into the real estate market and had caused the boom there.


The point is neither is in a position to bail the other out .


the only thing they can do is for Amerika to keep buying chinese goods and for china to keep investing in american T-bills.




why am I writing all of this?


well all this talk of china will be made the centrepiece of amerikan policy in India etc etc is bakwaas.


China already *is* the centrepiece of US foreign policy . we should not bother about what "re-alignment" happens there. because there is going to be none.


Point is , Stimulate domestic demand through an investment program in agricultural. there is plenty of latent demand there , use it .

And all this geo-political "great game " is nonsense. Keep growing at 7-8 per cent for the next twenty years through internal demand and we will emerge as the strongest economy in the world.

Because externally driven economies don't really make the cut on grounds of sustainability.


Remember bith japan and Israels' economic succes when it happened was underpinned by huge increases in agricultural productivity . that is where the key lies.


*Agriculture* , *Agriculture* *Agriculture*

 
At 5:46 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

the "play" in the chinese agricultural sector is already gone. Yields have peaked and with the kind of land grab that has happened in China plus soil degradation , I don't think any more surplus can be "taxed" out of agricultural.

Moreover all this talk of the chinese suddenly turning their savings into demand for world commodities is hogwash .

The middle class chinese population will in all probability hold onto their savings even more than before. Any attempt to tax these guys for a govt injection program will only create problems for the communist party.



Whichever way you look only the Indian agriculture sector has the "play" in demand . Huge areas of India have not seen great use of chemical fertilizers and are virgin. the eastern tracts don't even have power for tube wells etc.

even if 8 hours of "night power" is made available here , yields could jump by two times or more.


A new green revolution will not just make our country more prosperous but will actually ensure that it emerges as the main driver of the world economy in the years to come.


There are literally hundreds of millions of potential savers and consumers waiting in the wings.

 
At 7:32 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Mukunda,

What can I say boss - watch the movie :) - trust me - you won't be disappointed.

The key thing is to ensure that a situation does not arise whereby there are strikes on major infrastructure targets. This will not play well with the international investors and disrupt the flow of investments to the country.

Right now investors are correctly asking - "Are infrastructure targets at risk in India?"

We have to answer that question correctly. If the targets are at risk then the risk has to be managed. If they are not at risk - then that has to be made clear to the investors.

So we are left with few choices than to push Pakistan hard for cooperation in this investigation. Thus far we have seen them play a very obstructive role - they are more keen to preserve their honour and dignity in this matter and we understand that.

That is why Sahab gave a simple *out* in the beginning of all this - he told the Pakistani President that Gen. Pasha should come to Delhi and sort things out directly.

This is about as friendly and nice as we could have been towards them given the circumstances. But it looks like the Pakistanis don't respond to polite conversation so stronger language has to be used. This is some peculiar feature of the Pakistani Army's psychology that people have yet to analyse in sufficient depth.

Lets hope they get the point.

I think they will - you see ultimately - the people who are going to invest money into the nuclear deal in India or the pipelines across Pakistan are the same.

On the forum some people are commenting that these blasts are a case of Pakistan making the point that it is a very big player in ensuring India's prosperity. I don't know where these people have been for the last fifty years - perhaps these people believe that Pakistani mutual funds have been investing in the KSE.

Idiots are everywhere.

 
At 7:34 AM, Blogger maverick said...

"Colonel Imam" has been named in by US in connection with this event.

If this is the same Colonel Imam - then I don't understand - this is the same fellow who worked with the CIA to setup a number of things after 1994 and worked with Nasserullah Babar to get create circumstances that would allow Zardari and Benazir to put a huge map of a trans-afghan pipeline in their office.

 
At 7:51 AM, Blogger maverick said...

*If* Sultan Amir Tarar has been named then there is a completely separate dynamic at work here.

Sultan Amir was very active in the Clinton era securing a land route across Afghanistan. If you recall the story about first NLC convoy being led across the region - Babar had done part of the negotiations and Sultan Amir rode in the convoy along with "Colonel Gul". When Sultan was roughed by the Achkazais and the convoy held up - the Taleban attacked and took Kandahar.

 
At 9:27 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Convoys burnt by TTP and elements of HIG. No wonder Sultan Amir and Hamid Gul have been named. In dono ka competing transport business hain us ilakhe mein.

"It will be very unfortunate if India resorts to any such attack because Muridke is only used for educational activities."

Wah Hafiz Wah.... how much the language changes the moment you are told that your security cover might be withdrawn.

Kyon time waste kar raha hain... as Inspector Purohit says .."bata dey... bata dey... bach jayega".

 
At 12:17 PM, Blogger Faizi said...

kgoan.
This situation is evoking a very strange response in the US. There is an article on Mumbai practically everyday both in the NYT and the Washington Post. I have never seen this sort of interest or coverage about anything in regards to India.
The newspapers also don't push the usual Indo-Pak stuff as strongly as they normally do. I wonder what's going on..

 
At 1:14 PM, Blogger dilbert said...

That is just bizzare. And I don't trust their guarantees

KG: You're right, of course, India shouldn't trust their guarantees when deciding whether to attack Pakistan or not. Just recall two well-known cases in recent history of leaders who thought they had American backing for war -- Saddam Hussein (in 1990) and Saakashvili earlier this year. Both felt they had been given the unofficial go-ahead for invasion, a "nod and a wink", if you will; and yet look how much good that unofficial go-ahead did them when it came to the crunch.

India should make its own decisions on whether to attack Pakistan or not, without relying on promises of American support. What we probably require are promises of American/NATO non-inteference which is a different thing altogether, but much more important. We cannot be flying IAF strikes against Pakistan if the USAF is running interference for the Packees.

I don't know if military strikes are the right answer or not, at this time. There are serious pros and cons, but we cannot, I think, delude ourselves that there is a good chance of airstrikes staying localised. On the contrary, there is a good chance of them quickly leading to a general war. India has to mobilise for war if airstrikes are given the green light.

 
At 7:43 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Muzafarabad location where Lakhwi was allegedly arrested.

Shawai nullah (Coordinates: 34°23'5"N 73°27'37"E)

JUD office (Coordinates: 34°23'4"N 73°27'29"E)

 
At 8:07 PM, Blogger kgoan said...

Dilbert, yeah obviously we should be making our wn decisions - but in an interconnected world . . . see below.

Faizi: Like everyone else here, I have no idea what's going on, but there are some indications that the US/Euro support isn't just out of the goodness of their hearts or the recognition, finally, of Pakee evil.

Do you folks recall one of the issues I used to stress during the nuke deal tamasha was the insurance and reinsurrance aspect?

Well: http://fsi.stanford.edu/news/aig_lobbied_for_india_nuke_deal_really_20081031/

"As AIG was on the brink of bankruptcy and facing a government takeover, the insurance giant made sure Congress knew where it stood—on U.S.-India nuclear relations, that is.

AIG deployed its lobbyists to Washington last month to influence a bill that allows U.S. companies to sell nuclear technology to India.

. . . company spokesman Nick Ashooh said. “We do a lot of business in India.” Ashooh said he was “not sure” if that business included insuring contracts between U.S. military technology companies and their Indian counterparts."

The average "chattering types" may never have heard of AIG or it's impact before this financial crisis, but I suppose everyone and their Aunts have now heard about AIG - and I'll bet money they still don't have anything more than a CNN/NDTV type grasp of the issues - the DF threads on the whole nuke thing being a remarkably good example of vacuous tripe parading as "knowledge".

In the current circumstances, away from the media hype and the inane blabber of the idiotic "do something" DCH crowd, it appears as if GoI is actually leveraging it's pull, not least through the use of our economic assets, in a way that is unique to India until now.

(We're unbelievably lucky to have MMS in charge at this point, IMO).

But. . . my sense of uneasiness remain We're moving into uncharted waters at to fast a pace for my comfort levels - but that's just me.

Lets see how things play out over the next few days.

 
At 9:41 PM, Blogger mukunda said...

Hi Maverick,
"On the forum some people are commenting that these blasts are a case of Pakistan making the point that it is a very big player in ensuring India's prosperity. I don't know where these people have been for the last fifty years - perhaps these people believe that Pakistani mutual funds have been investing in the KSE.
Idiots are everywhere.
"
I heard a lot about the bubble at BSE(cpi/cpim,US Corporate,Politicians,...), but how long will we keep tolerating this headache know as Pakistan. If we have to move ahead, then we need to do something to fix this headache.

 
At 9:42 PM, Blogger mukunda said...

Hi M,
I am willing to learn. Sophisticated posts from you and KG. Forget DF for the moment.

with best wishes,
mukunda

 
At 12:18 AM, Blogger mukunda said...

Hi M,
Look at this article
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11313

An arc of crisis from Horn of Africa to Malacca Straits:

 
At 6:45 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Mukunda,

"but how long will we keep tolerating this headache know as Pakistan."

For the foreseeable future.

"If we have to move ahead, then we need to do something to fix this headache."

I beg to differ - at present if we can keep the headache under control - that will be a very big achievement.

 
At 6:56 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Mukunda,

As I said earlier the forum is on its own now. I can't be of any help there.

The only sensible thought to have come out of all this discussion there is a belated realisation that no infrastructure project in India is safe without securing meaningful Pakistani cooperation.

The corollary to this thought - i.e. keep religious extremism (the vehicle of Pakistaniat) under control - does not seem to have entered forumite thinking.

It is less of a forum and more of a mob at the Circus Maximus.

One has to function under such contraints - I mean look at the Mumbai Police - first they fought terrorists like Qasab with their bare hands and now they are fighting self appointed "experts" (like those on the forum) while trying to interrogate a piece-of-work like Qasab.

That my dear friend - is life.

My opinion in this matter remains unchanged - as the PM said - Gen. Pasha should come to Delhi and help us sort things out.

Ofcourse Pakistan is welcome to refuse to cooperate with us but then they can face the consequences.

 
At 7:26 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

After watching the way Barkha behaves... I feel Barkha may know more than the average forumite about things.

That is how terrible things have become.

While I have complete confidence in the Mumbai Police department and specifically in JCP Maria's team - I do wish to acknowledge a few things.

I am afraid that if there was a fault in the manner that the press was handled - the fault was in Mumbai.

Theoretically speaking police should have constructed the barricades further away to prevent acquisition of live footage of operations and disabled cell phone towers in the region. These are serious charges of mishandling that lay currently at the Commissioner's door.

Of these charges - yes - I agree that the first one is a genuine oversight. It is one of several tactical mistakes the police made. I attribute these mistake to a genuine lack of preparedness - psychological and material to deal with such an attack.

While people in the force were aware of what Javed Chikna had planned in 1993 - a fond belief took hold that merely keeping tabs on the underworld would be sufficient to detect a threat and that if indeed attackers were deployed to the city - they would be local boys with no real training.

No allowance was made for a real LeT fidayeen attack. The training of the Anti-Terrorist squad was largely limited to skill ideal for handling extortionists and armed robbers. One look at the BPJs and weapons available - and anyone could tell that they would not be able to handle a situation like this.

If the Police could offer an apology for this I am sure they would but it will not bring the dead policemen or civilians back to life.

In the matter of the latter - the issue of the cell phone towers - I am also reminded of the fact that police rely on those very same towers to achieve rapid and secure communication. Additionally - tracing the calls made by the terrorists was essential to detecting a substantial portion of the case. Also a sudden disruption in the cell coverage would have automatically tipped off the terrorists that something was underway.

The issue of lack of preparedness is a serious one.

Apart from the faces of the grieving relatives of the dead police officers, - the images of the wryly smiling injured policeman in a hospital bed as he relates how it was his .303 against the terrorist's AK-47 - or that clip of the police officer showing how his metal belt saved his life - are impossible to ignore.

If such a thing had happened if I held a position of responsibility in the force - I would have at the very least submitted a letter of resignation and a public apology to the public and the police for failing implicit trust they place in me.

 
At 7:32 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Finally a photo of the elusive mr Lakhwi.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00445/terror_445878a.jpg

 
At 8:01 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hafiz Saeed really does not like being the Eid ki bakri does he?

This man has been whining non stop.

 
At 8:04 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

Hi Mav:

For url links that are too big for the blog you can use tiny url. Just go to tiny.cc

Very easy to use. No strain, no pain.

 
At 9:10 AM, Blogger maverick said...

On the whole - the police is kept unarmed because for 99% of what they do they don't need arms.

It is once in a while that someone like Qasab turns up at our door.

Also there is an escalatory aspect to this. If you arm the policemen you have to train them more - that costs money. If you give the guns - the criminals automatically buy more advanced weapons and then you have to buy the police BPJs and patkas- that costs even more money.

After all that in a crowded tropical city like Mumbai - you can't function or move with heavy armour and weapons on you.

Ultimately what the local police bring to the situation is not their weapons - it is the wits and their deep knowledge of the area.

It will be a challenge to adequately arm the policemen and still retain their cat-like sense of balance which critical to resolving conflicts.

 
At 10:26 AM, Blogger maverick said...

"In reality it will be impossible to add..."

Hmm... what man.. upset your friends lost the election?

 
At 11:08 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello,

There is no point in burdening the police with stuff they don't really need.

It makes more sense to let them get access to what they need when they need it.

Even the biggest American cities have a special assault team that numbers at most two dozen people. That is simply too few to deal with a situation like what happened in Mumbai recently. This should give you an idea of the kind of money that it takes to raise such a unit and the resource crunch at our end.

This brings me to the NSG deployment issue.

Why did it take so long to get there?

The request was made only when the first reports of the attacks indicated that the local resources would be overwhelmed. By that I mean that Marcos and ATS indicated that this was simply too much for them to handle. That was done at midnight some 2 hours after the first reports of trouble emerged.

The turning point was when it was realised that Sri. Karkare and many of the ATS brass were killed and when Marcos began to take heavy fire at Taj. This is the same point at which a request was made for help from Southern Command and that help reached the site about 3 hours later - the time it take them to come from Pune.

It is all good and fine to complain about why it took the NSG so long to come to B'bay. It takes them half an hour to get ready and then 1 hour to get from Manesar to Palam's technical end. At that point a IL-76 was waiting on the tarmac with engines running. As soon as a runway could be cleared and visibility was good (remember smog in Delhi? - yes that limits reaction time too) - the flight was airborne.

It took about 2-3 hours to get to Bombay - which is what it always takes. After that it was about a hour to deplane and get from the airport to the Taj.

If that sounds like a lot - you probably don't live in India.

Short of a paradrop or a ferry comprising two dozen Mi17s - I don't see how they could have gotten there faster. No one has the kind of money that takes.

Why did it take NSG so long to resolve the situation?

That is because it is an urban combat environment where you have no idea what you are up against. There are no maps to guide you. Most of the time is spent on reconiassance and isolating booby traps.

Honestly - I don't think anyone could have done a better job.

And it is amusing to see all the people whining - when these are the same people that defended a similar deployment time issue during Akshardham.

 
At 2:16 PM, Blogger maverick said...

http://www.ispr.gov.pk/Archive&Press/
CurrentMonth/press.htm

"
No /2008-ISPR

Dated 08-12-08

Rawalpindi, December 8 : A spokesman of ISPR has said that operation of Law Enforcement Agencies is underway. This is an intelligence led operation against banned militant outfits and organizations. There have been arrest and investigations are on. Further details will be available on completion of preliminary inquiries."

And so the houbara hunt begins.

 
At 2:31 PM, Blogger maverick said...

re: Lakhwi arrest.

Unless he is arrested and handed over to us - how will we know if he is the same person we think is responsible for the carnage?

 
At 2:48 PM, Blogger maverick said...

got it - finally some confusion clears up.

Per SSS (via Farukh Saleem in Islamabad) US is to deploy 3 bdes to Afghanistan soon as part of a surge.

Resupplying these brigades is big business and I am guessing that Gen. Gul and Col. Imam want a bigger share. Destroying a competitor's trucks in Peshawar is probably their way of bargaining for a bigger share of the transport contract.

Putting Gen. Gul and Sultan Amir on a terrorism watch list is the USG's way of responding to aggressive business practices aimed at securing a no bid/sole source contract.

As usual Gen. Gul fears that the Zaranj-Delaram road will clear the path for a trade route via Meshad and undercut business opportunities. So he is whining loudly. When USG named him at the exact same time that the Indians put up the list of 20 - Gen. Gul got rattled - that explains the interview with Fareed. The khalistanis are Gul and Nasir's babies - even if only the Khalistanis are handed over - Gen. Gul could figure on the next extradition list.

I don't know if Col. Imam shares his concerns, from what I hear Col. Imam spent a lot of time in Herat - he might have made friends out there and from what I hear Col. Imam is not wanted for any crimes in India.

BTW... did junta notice - Imitiaz Billa and son and friend was recently released as part of the NRO.

Besides the obvious interpretation is there something else?

 
At 2:52 PM, Blogger maverick said...

The Russians do not want the US to leave the region. They simply want to ensure that NATO never challenges their power in the region.

If the US runs short of anything due to some stunt the Pakistanis pull - the Russians will step in and provide relief.

The same applies to Iran.

Gen. Gul wants to act like he is the only game in town - but that may not be the case.

 
At 4:30 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Arre what nonsense is this?

Unless we see this person you have arrested and question him to our satisfaction - how can we say they person you have arrested has done anything at all?

An American assurance won't be enough.

IIRC the Americans reassured India that Pakistan had done whatever was necessary to curb the terrorist groups in 2002 itself. And even after that terrorist attacks happened in India.

What use it to us if FBI grills Lakhwi about his role in Iraq? or if ISI grills him about his role in keeping the Eid Ka Chaand out of sight?

So now who will believe them in India? - with an election looming?

To save time - send Lakhwi to India on the same plane that Gen. Pasha travels to Delhi on.

 
At 6:40 PM, Blogger maverick said...

You know the rate at which some Pakistanis are going - we won't have to do anything.

The next series of bomb blasts will be organised inside Pakistan by the LeT and the Army as they compete with each other to prove that one is more indispensable to Pakistan's survival.

 
At 9:41 PM, Blogger mukunda said...

Hi Maverick,
""The only sensible thought to have come out of all this discussion there is a belated realisation that no infrastructure project in India is safe without securing meaningful Pakistani cooperation. ""

>> That is an shocking suggestion. You mean securing meaningful cooperation from terrorists!!!! You are suggesting that we pay those terrorists hafta as is done in Bombay. Long time while quoting KS article, you had suggested that India had bowed to Pakistan which America is also doing now.

We have a big somalia next door. You pay one group, next day another group will rear its head. Then what will you do. Alternatively with lots of street fighting with lots of blood everywhere.

""The corollary to this thought - i.e. keep religious extremism (the vehicle of Pakistaniat) under control - does not seem to have entered forumite thinking.
""
>> How will you keep religious extremism under control? Some time back you had suggested a zone of comfort be built around them.

 
At 9:48 PM, Blogger mukunda said...

Dear Maverick,
On the hindsight, shouldn't have used such harsh words in my previous posts, it reveals my ignorance only.

But very very depressing situation developing next door.

Imagine the heartaches our security planners must be getting on top of this forumites/it/vity type clamouring for action(some one must tell them to shutup).

A peaceful disintegration of pakistan would have been better.

 
At 5:09 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Mukunda,

We are already paying the hafta -like I said - with the Pakistani economy where it is - people don't exactly invest in the KSE.

But as was the case in Mumbai in the 90s - every random chavva got it into his head that he could demand hafta. A certain masterpiece thought he could even create a new family this way. That cannot be allowed to happen.

Pakistan like all other societies has a self-destructive impulse. In Pakistan the Army and the Jihadi groups channel that impulse into perceived profits for their leaders. This is why a psychotic farm hand from Pakistan ends up in a train station in Mumbai carrying an Ak47 and killing women and children in the name of Pakistan and Islam.

By contrast a psychotic farm hand in India ends up with a gamcha trying to sort out a caste dispute in his mohalla.

The only thing we have to do is make absolutely certain that the self destructive impulse inside Pakistan does not take us down with it.

 
At 5:12 AM, Blogger maverick said...

From the perspective of the democratically elected government in Pakistan there are only two possibilities.

1) The dregs of the Army Mullah combine have engineered this crisis to eject Zardari from power.

or

2) The Army no longer controls its Jihadi pets in the LeT.

Either of those is sufficiently disturbing to merit investigation and that is what they are doing there.

 
At 6:53 AM, Blogger maverick said...

With every second this draws out - the ISI's tendency to micromanage foreign policy is exposed.

Not even their own people believe them

First they raided the Muzzafarabad office. That could have counted as progress in the case if Lakhwi was arrested and brought before our investigative team. Instead they chose to put him in front of a ISI-FBI team which everyone knows is going to be staged.

After that the LeT issued threats that Punjab will burn if Lakhwi is interrogated. So now - they backed out - and currently plan to pretend that he is not arrested.

I thought it couldn't possibly get more ridiculous than this... but just to top it off - they want to try Lakhwi *inside* Pakistan!

But on what charge are they going to try him? he has committed a crime in India not in Pakistan. He should be tried in India not in Pakistan.

Again they persist in putting their ass right where our foot wants to be.

 
At 12:30 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Zardari appears to be more interested in saving his own skin than helping us detect the crime.

 
At 12:32 PM, Blogger Sparsh said...

KGoan,

Please read Shahzad's article again. He is not peddling any of the usual canned bullshit that the Pakistanis routinely trot out for consumption by their Western audience. I am certain he is specifically playing to an Indian audience here and so deserves some special attention.

Shahzad claims that the original intent of the ISI was to infiltrate regular Lashkar units into Kashmir via a maritime route through deserted stretches of the Gujarat coastline. To that extent the ISI, during Kayani's time as DG, authorized additional basic maritime training that regular Lashkar units would need to infiltrate via this route.

However, this does not fit with the picture that we saw in Mumbai. What we saw in Mumbai was not a terrorist attack by a regular Lashkar unit with some basic maritime training for infiltrating a deserted coastline. What we saw in Mumbai was a full blown raid against a coastal target by a naval commando unit of the type that one would associate with a proper military ... just think about the scale and complexity of the coordinated and interlocking layers of the attack as they unfolded. This point can not be stressed enough - What happened in Mumbai was not a terrorist attack, it was a proper naval commando raid.

This brings me to my main point. If I put together Shahzad's claims and your speculation about the Lashkar going truly independent, then I am forced to ask:

(1) How is it possible that over the last several years, the Lashkar has used its access to the PA/ISI/SSG's training facilities and personnel to raise naval and possibly other commando units without the brass higher up the PA hierarchy knowing about it?

(2) How is it possible that something like this was kept hidden for so long from the PA brass? We know that Ajmal and the others were trained for about one and a half years, nearly two if we count the Daura Aam and Daura Khaas.

(3) How many other commando units has the Lashkar raised that the PA brass do not know about? What are these units intended to be used for? Are they seeded with regulars as I suspect them to be? Some news reports mention a round number of 500 men. Boss, that is completely staggering ... that number is nearly as big as a Para SF battalion.

I find it quite hard to believe that the Lashkar did all this independently of any direction from the PA brass. As you quite correctly point out, the Lashkar *is* the PA. I doubt that the PA's *private* claims of ignorance in this matter will carry any water with us.

 
At 12:35 PM, Blogger Sparsh said...

KGoan, Maverick,

One quick thing - I don't know why but I keep misspelling Shahzad's name as Shezad. Sorry about any confusion that may have caused.

 
At 12:54 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Oh - and btw... it appears the Americans have officially chickened out of a showdown with Pakistan.

Perhaps Zardari has convinced the Americans that his govt will fall if they lean too hard on him or perhaps Kayani has arranged for enough grief via Peshawar truck burnings - who knows.

Honestly speaking - I was not expecting much from them - I mean the Bush Admin is barely a month away from walking out the door and Obama will have other things to think about when he comes in.

Now that they have bowed out - there are fewer constraints on what we can do.

Hi Sparsh,

And - where did the money for this come from?

It is only possible if the PA absorbs the Lashkar's facility and operational costs into its own budget. The manner in which Qasab describes the PNS Iqbal facility was given over for LeT use is very suggestive.

That is the only way the Laskhar can go on raising battalion after battalion without breaking into a financial sweat.

 
At 1:39 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Gora indologist on NYT has written extensive "piece" about what ails the now greater "middle east" . Pfft.


Predictably the piece ends with the call for a common Amriki interlocutor who would shuttle between capitals to keep the "peace".


When will these screwed up goras learn that what is required to bring "piss" to the now "greater middle east" is their withdrawal from the region once and for all.


Anglo-Saxons continue to find ways to come back to the "greater middle east" don't they?

 
At 2:31 PM, Blogger maverick said...

I don't think anything we do could end South Asia expertise, but now that the US has bowed out - the language of communication can be different.

 
At 10:19 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

its now "greater middle east expertise", isn't it? ( ha ha )


what we should do is create a decent think tank untainted with political affiliation. Funding can be arranged , space can be obtained , the only thing required is a bunch of people with multi-disciplinary interests and no agendas.

Possible, Possible.

 
At 6:32 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi DFC,

The problem with this greater middle east title is that the US has traditionally done a bunch of completely fucked up shit in the "Middle East" .

By Contrast - their behaviour in our part of the world - barring exceptions like Bangladesh, Bhopal Gas Tragedy, The shits across the river etc... has been almost civilized.

The problem is the "tribal" model that is forced upon any society that they describe using the "Middle East" label. It is too primitive to be used in our context.

It fails in the context of any country that is not sparsely populated with a relatively homogenised population.

It failed in the context of Iran but no one in the US has the balls to admit that - so this greater middle east

The US lacks the tools to deal with diversity. Their melting pot idea doesn't work in other parts of the world.

 
At 7:31 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

The problem with this greater middle east title is that the US has traditionally done a bunch of completely fucked up shit in the "Middle East" .

By Contrast - their behaviour in our part of the world - barring exceptions like Bangladesh, Bhopal Gas Tragedy, The shits across the river etc... has been almost civilized.



ha ha.
jokes apart that says a lot actually , a lot.

You are right, the yamrikhans haven't been half as bad as their cousins across the herring pond. However we must not forget the bengal famine either, which was engineered with the help of local elements to feed GIs in the South east Asian theatre.

But I refuse to see the stars and stripes in isolation. the anglo saxon continuum has absolutely ravaged the "greater middle east".

And at the end of the day the germanic people (barbarians ) stand together .

 
At 9:24 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear DFC,

There are sufficient differences to set the two apart. In any case - the "Greater Middle East" is a recent US invention so my comments are restricted to that context.

Identity in the Indian subcontinent is a far more sophisticated and complicated matter than in most of the so-called Middle East. Because of the smaller sizes the populations in these lands, elements of diversity can be suppressed to achieve notional integration.

A case in point is the application of the "abrahamic" state idea to Pakistan by the Americans. To them - this is a land unified by the purpose of Islam and diversity is not relevant in any description.

By contrast - Pakistan - in our eyes - is a delicate equilibrium between various ethnic factions and Islam is merely a mechanism to paper over catastrophic social fractures.

So the American President runs to the world after 9/11 and tells them that the Dictator of Pakistan Gen. Musharraf (and by induction all of Pakistan) have agreed to support America's war on terror. And for years afterwards his mouthpieces have to invent new ways of spinning away the fact that Pakistani cooperation on terrorism has been of a startlingly poor quality due to the emergence of sub-national ethnic loyalties in the very Army that Pervez Musharraf heads.

Instead of doing that the Indian PM goes to the media and blandly admits that securing cooperation from all the multiple Pakistani sub groups may prove quite challenging.

The American looks like he is in control and the Indian looks powerless.

And somehow the population at large misses the significance of the fact that a 500 pound bomb dropped from a F-18 or an Su-30 has the exact same effect when it lands.

In Commissioner Forjett's time - all of India was ablaze due to the actions of revolutionaries. There was fear that the revolutionaries would seize the city and a bloodbath would follow. At this point the Commissioner held a small - perhaps token display. Two cannons were trundled into the courthouse and two revolutionaries were tied to them. A large crowd comprising the city's rich and poor were invited to witness the event.

When the canons were fired - smoldering bits and pieces of the baghis... flew all over Azad Maidan. The effect it had on the crowd was ... significant and during this entire period - the city remained at peace.

In 1993 - all the boys involved were locals. Their parents were constantly harassing the police officers - every single day they would send mothers and aged grandmothers out to the chowky to plead for the release of the boys.
Even the police officers lost interest in vengeance after seeing that.

But now... these are not local boys. The locals don't even want to bury the bodies. The Pakistanis will make sure that no one steps forward from Pakistan to claim the body. Qasab's letter to his mother will go unanswered - the Laskhar and the ISI will see to it that Noor-e-tai never sees her son's letter.

A Jt. CP, an ACP, a PI, and a dozen constables are dead - a Addl. CP, several DCPs, PI, API, SIP and constables are badly injured. The Police should be forgiven for thinking the way they do.

A suggestion that someone has made - that Qasab should be taken to the middle of Azad Maidan and there in full view of the media the Mumbai Police should set him on fire.

The idea behind the suggestion appears to be that such a brutal act carried out in full view of the world's TV channels will send an unambiguous message to his controllers in Pakistan that India - and Mumbai in particular has had enough.

Once those images are wired around the world - it is hoped - that any people seeking to indulge in such activities will know exactly what fate awaits them.

I don't know what to make of such a suggestion. Prima facie - it seems as good an option as any of the others.

 
At 4:01 PM, Blogger Sparsh said...

Maverick,

>> The manner in which Qasab describes
>> the PNS Iqbal facility was given
>> over for LeT use is very suggestive.

Precisely. Shahzad's story does not add up. It leads us to believe that the Lashkar somehow deceived the PA into raising commando units of its own under the cover of training regular Lashkar units for maritime infiltration. This I find absolutely impossible to believe.

There is no way the PA brass did not know who is being given what training in their own establishments and that too for such a long time. There is no way the PA brass did not know that commando units were being raised within the Lashkar.

 
At 6:51 PM, Blogger maverick said...

some answers

Times News Network Editorial

A London newspaper has proved that arrested terrorist Ajmal Amir Kasab is really from Pakistan. It has located his house in a Faridkot village, tracked down his parents (who are in hiding), got their national identity card numbers, got neighbours to identify Kasab and also admit that the village has a reputation for producing jihadis for the LeT... all of which Indian authorities ought to have done. What are we doing with this evidence now?

What exactly do you think GoI was doing when it was collecting evidence? - The Guardian simply *independently* verified information that GoI already had. When GoI presented the information the Pakistanis claimed that the GoI most likely fabricated the story- but like you when the Guardian published its *independent* investigation - the Pakistanis had to shut up and deal with the truth.

Shouldn’t we take the LeT’s threat to support the Pakistani army against any aggression by India more seriously?

And besides you morons in the Times editorial team - who exactly is not taking this seriously?

What’s the real story behind the 48-hour deadline that Pakistan is reported to have been sent, but denies receiving, by India and US to take action against the LeT? It keeps demanding “solid evidence” from India for the role of Pakistani terrorists in 26/11. Isn’t what we have “solid” enough? Beyond empty threats to Pakistan and hollow promises to our people, what have we to show?

Zardari govt is afraid that if it publicly bows to Indian demands it will be ousted in a military or Islamist coup. The question idiots like you should be asking is *why* Isn't the Pakistani Army being more cooperative in this investigation? i.e. who paid the LeT to do this job?

Sunday night’s “exclusive” CCTV footage by all channels of DCP Vishwas Nangre-Patil’s valiant battle along with few constables against the Taj terrorists reveals few truths. (A) That the Mumbai Police were there at the start of the siege, they rushed in ill-equipped, ill-informed, and ill-advised about what to do next. (B) They did not storm the hotel immediately after this with their own AK-47s in the hands of the Anti-Terrorist Squad (ATS) and Quick Response Team (QRT)... which they should have, and which the NSG commandos did next morning. (C) Yes, the Mumbai Police also has AK-47s that could have been used against the terrorists, we also have SLRs that fire upto 20 bullets per magazine; the advantage the terrorists had over us was in their grenades. (D) The ATS was formed to tackle terrorism... it ought to have been used with a vengeance that night after its chief, Hemant Karkare, was killed by the terrorists. Why wasn’t it deployed?

The ATS can't rescue hostages - it can kill criminals and collect information. By handing over hostage rescue to the NSG - the ATS was able to devote its energy to hunting down the remaining terrorists and detecting the elements of the crime.

What is more important to Mumbai today, a Rs 100-crore statue of Chhatrapati Shivaji in the Arabian Sea or sophisticated arms and bullet-proof jackets for the police?

Obviously a Rs. 100-crore statue of Shivaji is more important - because it will create jobs for thousands of workers and artisans in Mumbai and because Shiv Sainiks will riot causing Rs 500 Crore of damage to the city if you don't build the statue. If a policeman is killed the Sena will make some dark remarks about the Mumbai's muslims before gloriously shitting themselves in the middle of Marine Drive. Most of the money spend on weapons will go foreign companies and their dalals.

Why do we assume terrorism at the airport can only come through hijacks of aircraft and bombs concealed in the luggage? Why not look at terrorists shooting down an incoming flight with rocket propelled grenades, a surface to air missile, an M-160 Rocket Launcher (shown in several Hollywood films) or a MANPAD — Man Portable Air Defense System using infrared homing devices to target low-flying aircraft? The Kurla slums along the eastern boundary of the airport offer terrorists the perfect grounds for such an attack... yet there is no political will to demolish or relocate these slum-dwellers.

An RPG can only shoot down a plane in a Bollywood movie. It is likely that a Stinger Missile - like the model that the Americans supplied to Pakistan in the 80s, could be used to target an airplane on final approach but the Americans have assured us that all stingers supplied to Pakistan are under lock and key and no operational stinger missiles are in terrorist hands. Basically only the CIA and the Jihadis know who has how many MANPADS. I don't know how GoI can be expected to put an answer to th question - you should feel free to please write to Mme. Christina Rocca at the State Dept. who coordinated the recovery of these weapons in Pakistan and former congressman Charlie Wilson who arranged for the sale of the same to Pakistan in the 80s. At least you can have the benifit of the same bland assurance they hand out to GoI.

Is US Senator and defeated Presidential candidate John McCain warning Pakistan that “India may carry out surgical strikes against individuals or groups linked to the Mumbai terror attacks” or telling India that it ought to do so on the “irrefutable evidence” it has of the Pakistani hand? And, what does he mean by saying “Washington may not be able to do much about this” but that he will “privately try to dissuade India from doing so”? Are we going to remain putty in the US’ hands forever?

It all depends on how much you believe a failed presidential candidate in the US needs to be taken seriously. I take it you believe him a lot. The McCain statement reflects the basic apathy towards the region that the US has. The US will be very upset with India if we break their new shiny "democratic Pakistan" toy - but other than that if we kill a few Jihadis around or slap a few Pak Armymen down - the US doesn't care about that. That won't make the news.

Who in the state government asked for the injured to be shifted from St. George and GT Hospitals to JJ because this hospital had received a Rs 100-crore grant from the Centre and the state medical authorities wanted to showcase JJ when Central ministers came visiting?

I'll let the CM respond to that one. But I suspect his reply might point to inconvenient truths such as the fact that you just made this "shifted injured to showcase hospital" stuff up to sell your stupid newspaper.

Fishermen at Jamshedji Bunder in Colaba reported that four suspicious-looking men tried to land at the jetty on 26/11 even as the siege was underway but sped off in the night when they raised an alarm... are we taking the possibility of more terrorists being holed up in Mumbai too casually?

Apart from you who is not taking this casually?

Why has it taken us so long to realise that western intelligence agencies that come down to assist us in terrorist investigations don’t help in taking up India’s case with Pakistan? Instead, they glean information for their own nations’ use and often muck up our progress in the investigation.

Oh.. I take it you have realised that now? I guess you must have been asleep for the last fifty years - or at the very least you weren't paying attention when Sri. B. Raman told the world about the way the US handled evidence supplied to them during the 1993 investigation.

Dear Editing Idiots at the Times of India- I am not a big fan of terrorism - certainly not in Mumbai - but I strongly feel that if some newspaper editing idiots like like you had been killed instead of decent human beings like Sri. Karkare, ACP Kamte or PI Salaskar - Mumbai would have become a far better place.

 
At 7:06 PM, Blogger kgoan said...

Sparsh:

I don't believe the LeT is independent. I don't see any difference between the LeT, the ISI and the Pak Army. I think these are interchangeable terms with which term being used depepnding on the given context they occur in - and what the Paks think they can get away with.

In Pakland we know the "establishment" is in charge. The question usually is "which faction of the establishment currently holds the upper hand".

In a sense this goes back to Nawaz's firing of the then Pak Army chief - which happened because the Pak Army hierarchy was split and significant members of the Establishment refused to back the chief.

The queston is whose actually in charge in Pak?

The answer over the last few days seems to be 'Kiani".

Some of our dippy DDM are wondering out aloud why Kiani hasn't spoken up about Mumbai - he did loud and clear with the stoked up anti-India rhetoric in the Pak media, the "shifting troops" business, who else other than Kiani can order 100 000 Pak troops to move from west to east, and other things.

GoI, it seems, doesn't care if there is any doubt about whether or not there was "official" Pak approval for the attack - neither do the Americans (strangely enough - unless there really were US intel people at the Taj).

If there was some break down in Pak control it is utterly irrelevant now - Kiani by his actions has "owned" Mumbai.

That's the only thing relevant really - and thats all we need to know.

 
At 7:07 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Sparsh,

A new money channel has opened up for leT ops. Either the PA dipped into its rainy day stash or the Laskhar got a donation from somewhere.

Yahya Mujahid and company are whining about the funding cut that is going to happen now that UNSC 1373 covers JuD/Khidmat activities also.

I bet the herrow in lahore who was giving interviews is Abu Shoiab.

BTW here is Hafiz Saeed's brother in law Abdul Rehman Makki giving a speech

http://www.youtube.
com/watch?v=MAKubLTJsLE

This is a clip from the october rally in Islamabad.

And get this - They actually have laskhar song! and they call themselves Ahl-e-haddith!

Islam ka mujahid talwar utha raha hain...

Baffling!Absolutely Baffling - here is the song.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=NlYZ1SGLfKY&feature=related

 
At 7:11 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Sorry rally date sept 19 2008 - location Aapbara Chowk - with security being handled by LeT itself.

 
At 8:48 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

M 160?

or Mk 153 SMAW?

I think it might just be the M202 flash that they are talking about. the one used by schwarznegger in Commando. that weapons never really saw widespread military use by any standards.


No RPG can be used to hit a plane , unless it is parked on the tarmac (ha ha) . of course a helicopter can be shot down using an RPG if its hovering. even there you need some sort of plate to save yourself from the backblast as it hits the ground during high angle fire. An RPG is best fired in horizontal mode.


Anything rocket propelled builds up velocity as it leaves the launcher whereas bullets lose velocity progressively.


so targetting a fast moving flying object with what is basically an unguided rocket and not much range is not possible.

 
At 10:04 PM, Blogger mukunda said...

Hi Maverick,
Take a look at this article:-
a)
http://www.rediff.com/news/2008/dec/11mumterror-pentagon-hails-pakistan-action-against-let.htm

b) American Shabashi has already started! Where does this leave us with? Will GOI still retaliate?

c) One of the aims of this operation was to discredit the Indian politicians in the eyes of the Indian public. How much ever one may criticise the Indian Parliament,ultimately Indian parliament is our strength. By try to bring down this structure they are effectively curtailing central rule as the US/Britons have done in pakistan. That is why some us are livid.
with best wishes,
mukunda

 
At 10:11 PM, Blogger mukunda said...

Hi Maverick,Kgoan
Some points have to be noted in the run to attack on Mariott/Taj(Oberoi)

1) Gen. Kiyani with his lieutenants embarking for a meeting with the JCS Adm Mike Mullen in the arabian sea? Why was it so secret that Gen Kiyani agreed to meet American in the arabian sea in a aircraft carrier.

2) What stuck me was when PM MMS met GWB post-signing of the nuclear deal, this what GWB has to say: "Thanks to Indians for providing inputs vis-a-vis pakistan"

4) Maj. Gen Mahmud Ali Durrani dropping by for a meeting with our NSA Shri MKN after which Shri MKN was all praise for Maj.Gen Mahmud Ali Durrani.

5) Pakistan's bailout by IMF/World bank was done days/weeks prior to Mumbai attacks.

6)One has to revisit ideas like "arc of crisis", "Greater Middle East"

Maverick, you know a great game is being played out there and you know that.

with best wishes,
mukunda

 
At 6:58 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Mukunda,

I don't know why anyone would feel the need to discredit GoI through such means - barring the occasional person like Umrao Jaan, can't get to bed without discrediting the GoI in some way shape or form - most of the rest of us i.e. sane human beings are already suffering from "discredit fatigue" in the matter of GoI.

As Sri. Mukherjee has indicated, the problem is much deeper inside Pakistani society. Not only are poor psychopaths like Qasab carefully engineered into genocidal killing machines by organisations like the Laskhar e Taiba (or whatever it calls itself lately) - the population at large - rich and poor - endorses this brand of mass murder as being an essential part of the Islamic faith.

If President Zardari cooperates with us and hands over the Laskhar criminals to India - not only will he face a revolt within the pro -conflict economy sections of the Pakistan Army , he will face a huge public backlash engineered by Laskhar sympathizers in Punjab. A military coup will certainly follow but I wonder who will really be ruling Pakistan at that point? the Army or Laskhar-e-Taiba?

Once such an event occurs - we will left in a very steep part of the escalation curve and the any instability will be greatly amplified. This will make for an unfavourable investment climate in India.

All the ITvity types who are shouting from the rooftops for GoI do beat up Pakistan will be shitting bricks as their American paymasters withdraw investments from the companies that pay them and ship their jobs back to the US.

Additionally, all the anti-nuke herrows in DC will have a field day pointing out that free nuclear trade with India is not possible - that way we can kiss our long term economic security goodbye.

All this ofcourse will make any immediate consequences to the US supply lines across Pakistan seem irrelevant as in one stroke the Jihadis will have killed not only America's soldiers in Afghanistan - they would also have completely choked all hope for a US industrial revival.

Attacking Pakistan directly will only injure the utterly fragile Pakistani ego. I mean look at the public commentary from their TV progams? besides denial - and accusations of "Hindu Zionists and Jewish Zionists" do you see anything that remotely resembles an apology?

Hamid Mir on NDTV compared the testimony of Qasab to the testimony of Sarabhjit Singh. Perhaps Hamid Mir does not realise that Ashok Kamte was actually Rajdeep Sardesai's classmate or perhaps Hamid is genuinely an idiot who doesn't know what to say in front of a TV camera!

Do these look like sane people to you? All I see is people with a severe psychological problem - people who do not have the guts to face what their own countrymen are doing purely because they fear being killed right inside Pakistan by those very same countrymen.

I stress these are the constraints we are facing presently and we have to work within them. Measures like what Sri. Chidambaram has announced will go some way in reassuring the public. However for these measures to make an actual dent in the security problems facing us will take time.

We need a more immediate solution that limits the *will* of the Laskhar to project force inside India. We need something that sends a direct message to the Lashkar and its controllers that we do not like this sort of thing.

Conducting a campaign of targeted assassinations of Jihadi leaders is unlikely to achieve anything meaningful. Killing them will only result in their replacement by other regular Pakistan Army officers in mufti.

Qasab is not an Indian citizen, and no country claims he belongs to them - he is not covered by any international convention on Human Rights. And that he specifically entered India illegally with the sole aim of mass murder - we owe him nothing. He is only useful to us alive if he provides information that helps us solve the case.

At this point "Forjett's Solution" as proposed in some quarters seems like an attractive option.

 
At 7:40 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

For Forjett's solution , the sequence should be


1. Afzal Guru now.

2. Kasab never. too young and impressionable.

 
At 12:02 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Afzal Guru has been brought before a court and a Judge has spoken on this issue. Also Afzal did not pull the trigger himself.

With Qasab - he has not been brought before a court and he pulled the trigger himself.

I think - Forjett's solution will work only on Qasab.

 
At 2:20 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Somehow - when it comes to handing suspects over to the Americans or getting the crap bombed out of you by the Americans - the Pakistanis have no problems.

Whenever India requests an extradition from Pakistan - suddenly every little piece of filth becomes a legal expert.

Until and unless the arrested persons are handed over to India - it is impossible for India to say anything about the effectiveness of the measures that Pakistan has taken.

The problem is two fold - firstly there is a financial network that can support terrorism inside Pakistan and secondly the Jihadis have never confronted the cost of war.

If some Jihadi leader watches his ancestral village disappear from the face of the earth every time around he decides to pick up a contract on some Indian target that drifts across his desk - then perhaps he will think differently?

 
At 4:48 PM, Blogger dilbert said...

If some Jihadi leader watches his ancestral village disappear from the face of the earth every time around he decides to pick up a contract on some Indian target that drifts across his desk - then perhaps he will think differently?

So what you're saying is: maybe we should consider limited military stirkes against Paki targets.

That's okay, I have no problem with this in principle, as long as careful preparation and forethought go into this before the strikes are ordered.

What I'm saying is, there's a good chance of these things escalating, and India should be prepared for a major war, not just at the government/military level but at the general man-in-the-street level. No point ordering air strikes if your public starts whining/complaining after two weeks of war that "we didn't realise it would go to this level".

 
At 6:45 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Entire J-song collection

http://saray-taranay.com/

Dilbert,

Yes things have to be done very carefully - a lot depends on where the Pakistanis take things.

 
At 9:23 PM, Blogger kgoan said...

I don't think some folk really grasp the situation fully: As a favour to these folks, I'd like to post something from these people:
http://tiny.cc/qhlVx

which is available at this link:
http://tiny.cc/n2xkt

"Any Indian decision to carry out a strike on terror targets inside Pakistan will be based on the Cold Start doctrine. . .

When NightWatch first began studying Indian civil and military war preparations in 1971, the Indian Army required 8 months to mobilize men from the civilian sector; recall reserves; move logistics; generate, train and prepare the forces; bring them to full combat readiness and move 750,000 soldiers in 25 to 28 divisions with about 2,000 tanks to attack positions in western India,

In late 1986, during Operation Brass Tacks, India shortened that preparation process, but it was still considerable. By the time of the Kargil War in early 1999, the Army reduced the time to attain full combat readiness in battle positions to 45 days.

By the January 2002 crisis, the Indian Army had reduced the time to one month, with 750,000 men and some 4,000 tanks in battle positions and capable of attacking after three weeks of preparations. Full combat readiness was reached in the fourth week.

In June 2002, the Army also showed it can maintain that large force in the field at a high state of readiness for up to six months, summer or winter. No other Army has achieved those results for a force that size.

Since 2004, India has adopted the Cold Start Doctrine, which has a long history in Soviet strategic military writings, more so than in the West. It emerged from Soviet leadership distrust in the reliability and precision of intelligence warning of a NATO attack. It was a safeguard against warning failure and surprise attack. However, it was never clear whether the Soviets achieved the ability to launch a nuclear attack from a cold start.

The Indians have taken the doctrine in an all-arms direction, which logically would include nuclear strikes by all three services because all of them have some nuclear weapons delivery capability. The record of Indian achievement in reducing the time to prepare the armed forces for conventional war is such that prudence commends a working hypothesis that they will do what they say they can do, as to cold start."

 
At 9:26 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Actually the masterminds deserve the capital penalty. young guys with guns should be treated as enemy combatants.

You can always find people to pull the trigger. Kasab did not plan this attack. One can always find disaffected individuals who can be brainwashed/drugged /hypnotised to do this kind of thing. Forjett's solution will not deter them as most of them are "prepared" either themselves or due to "treatment" to die anyway.


The death penalty will work for masterminds who send pawns to do their bidding themselves with a much lesser chance of immediate damage and who use the political situation subsequently to seek clemency later on, knowing fully well that the prevalent political dynamics of the day will provide cover.


It is these "masterminds" who need to be deterred rather than the foot soldier , because The origin of anything must be nipped.


hell that is why people are talking about strikes on the Jarnails rather than mud busting some camps.

Afzal has been sentenced by a court . that sentence should be carried out . if the law of the land has to prevail and retain credibility.


By the very laws of nature. Planners are few . executors are may.

 
At 9:31 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Anyway Forjett's solution is not the point. the point is the death penalty which should be given to masterminds than to pawns.

 
At 9:49 PM, Blogger kgoan said...

Of course, I am assuming that said "folk" know who John McCreary is . . . a mistake possibly given the remarkable propensity of some towards a vacuity that sometimes beggars the imagintion . . . but some of you folks do - heck I'm sure some of you probably met him in those halcyon days of old when the ISI and CIA were bestest buddies. . .

Hey Mav, it appears someone else is reading yer blog. Now I can't be certain who but given the incredibly bad english, probably that old friend of yours from the PAF who writes for The Nation and who you gave a strict talking to on bragging about submarine cruise missiles some time back. Did you know they say such horrid things about you? LOL.

Thought I'd let our dear friends know that "reading" works both ways.

 
At 9:55 PM, Blogger mukunda said...

Dear Maverick,
You were recommending Forjett's solution: how about arming & training sections of Pashtun's population to rise against Pakistani army(this was quoted by Bhadrakumar in one of his articles citing some American source). What do you feel?

 
At 10:00 PM, Blogger mukunda said...

Hi M,
Isn't it surprising that one of the LET guys surrendered: they were supposed to die isn't it or this was delibrately done

 
At 10:44 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Hello folks,

I have been unable to connect much -- wi-fi availability in India is still very low. Of all the folks I have visited, only my octagenarian father, who is not tech savvy, has wireless in his house.

Thought for the day: In order to appreciate Delhi, one should visit Lucknow for a while.

Traffic Cops Gone Wild: I have received 3 chalaans (tickets) in one week. Actually, various drivers, not me personally.

DFC update: the guy is cool, even if viewed after having consumed countless bloody marys.

Cheers.

 
At 11:34 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Professor T,

He He.
where have you been?

How are affairs? everything cool I hope?

 
At 7:34 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear DFC,

The ability to go behind the master minds and dissuade them is limited.

A pragmatic approach is to go after the shooters and do something so horrible to one of them that even the masterminds think twice about doing such things.

Kg,

Yes I am aware that people read this blog - which is why I am insisting that things be kept civil.

That was not a request the PM made - it may have have sounded like a request because as everyone knows he is a soft spoken person who does not use strong language.

Maverick.

Dear All,

The anatomy of this mess - as I understand it is as follows -

Zardari has no clue who did it and probably doesn't really want to know. He is only interested in finding out if this mess will cost him his job and whether the Army specifically engineered this to kick him out. He won't act against any of these guys - as he himself said - outside parts of Sindh no one pays any real attention to him.

Kiyani and the American sponsorred Army has reasons to go along with such an attack. If nothing else the Army will regain some of its lost importance. In a best case scenario , Zardari will make a mistake and anger the Islamists to the point where his own party runs for cover. At that point the Army can either take control or bring Nawaz in as window dressing. However given the sheer amount of surveillance that he is under - Kayani (and friends) will be chary about ordering anything like this lest it be traced back to him in the manner that the stinger missile attacks were traced back to Musharraf by way of a wiretap.

The Jihadis have gotten themselves into a peculiar place. Unlike the past, they know that they have to carry out attacks inside Pakistan and a majority of their victims are going to be Muslims. In the past - when the operated in foreign countries - they simply deflected allegations of killing Muslims by saying that these were lies perpetrated by enemies of Islam. Today - they can't do that every time around a suicide bomber blows himself up in a sabzi mandi or masjid in Pakistan. So they have evolved their theology to say that any innocent muslims killed in a Jihadi attack are automatically Ghazis enroute to Jannat - because the Koran says that Jihad is an obligation of all Muslims. By dying as innocent bystanders in a Jihadi bomb attack - these Muslims have made a Jannat worthy sacrifice that every Muslim must respect. The flip side of this is that anyone who opposes this point of view dilutes his devotion to Islam and is therefore a Kafir and Islam says its okay to kill Kafirs. This is why we are seeing those jihadi taraney - jihadi songs - appear at JuD/LeT rallies. They are trying to inject Jihad consciousness into the general population and manufacture support for their actions. The songs represent a remarkable shift in the propaganda style - a major step away from the dialectical harangue style popularly used by the Jihadi leaders to attract rural intellectuals and "think globally act locally" types from muslim communities in other countries.

One does not know if this delicate balance between the Zaradari/Nawaz types, the Army and the Jihadis is stable.

It is unclear if the Pakistani population at large will accept the Jihadi premise anymore than they accepted the Army's claims of protecting Pakistan from imaginary evils. Clearly Pakistanis treat their civilian leadership with contempt and the word "Army" elicits choice words from Pakistani mouths that even I - a short dark rice eating Indian, don't dare utter! So despite their guns and bombs and F16s and all claims of Iman and assorted piety - the Army could not retain dominance over society.

The population at large could easily turn into lynch mobs that round up Jihadis from various mohallas and burn them in village squares. A repeat of the Templar genocide in medieval Europe.

By themselves even the Jihadis don't want to provoke a situation where the population at large is slowly turned against them. This is why all the leading lights of JuD were pleading not to hit Muridke. If you wipe out Muridke - you wipe out a substantial fraction of the machinery that carries out propaganda, relief operations and other positive psyops key to keeping the general population of Pakistan from lunging at the LeT's throat.

That brings me back the questions that have been bothering me since the day this attack happened. It is plain as day that the LeT did this and it is impossible for the LeT to do this without PA support.

****

So -

Why did they do this? -

(specifically - why was a "hostage plan" conceived in the first place? and why was it abandoned in favor of a mass murder?)

(were Sri. Karkare and the ATS people targeted?)

Who paid for it? and how much did they pay - i.e. exactly how much do people pay these days for the Pakistan Army to look like a bunch of utterly incompetent idiots?

What were their motives? - were they trying to influence an election or were they attempting to disrupt the pace of infrastructure development in India?

****

These are relatively simple questions that have cross *my* (and only *my*) mind .

I have not seen any satisfactory answers to them.

I do not know if the PM of India has similar questions. One can obviously ignore my questions - but one cannot ignore the PM of India's questions.

The PM has called the ISI Chief to assist with the investigation. The Pakistan Army's reluctance to send him is proving to be a major obstacle in improving relations between the two countries. And all this foolishness with "banning","arresting", etc... is only making matters worse.

 
At 7:39 AM, Blogger Raju said...

I can't say exactly why and for what recent reason, but get the feeling that M.K. Narayanan knows everything that is there to know about this operation.

deathly silence emanating from National Insecurity Advisor's office of late.

 
At 7:44 AM, Blogger Raju said...

I visit a cricket forum regularly where a certain poster who rarely speaks about any politics at all posted about how the US Consul General was picked up forcefully by 4 security guards from 4 seasons where he was dining with guests. His sister was there at 4 seasons with her husband and the US Consul General was picked up by his jacket and when he did not budge he was lifed by his trousers and spirited off by his security guards exactly an hour before the attacks began.

 
At 7:44 AM, Blogger Raju said...

4 seasons Hotel is adjacent to Oberoi and Taj it seems.

 
At 10:20 AM, OpenID rotflmao said...

aha, crackpot raju peddling his conspiracy theory again. I read this earlier on DF and they kicked his post out - rightly

 
At 11:23 AM, Blogger Raju said...

As usual shiv posting under numerous i.d's. I presume.

 
At 1:29 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi,

Not implausible - the story of the US Consul. From what we are hearing the US had advance warning of the events and they claim to have tipped off R&AW as well.

I wonder why they didn't save the two intelligence guys that were killed at Taj/Oberoi.

The consulate in Mumbai has its back to the water. I am not sure how the US would feel secure in a location if the attack was coming from the water. They probably have a shelter of some kind in the consulate. Probably dragged him there till the troubles ended.

That is a lot better that what the Mumbai Police brass ended up having to do. When Karkare sahab went down - instinctively one would assume it was a hit. I mean come on - that is what every policeman thinks.

Most of the ATS guys and Crime Branch guys especially everyone that worked on the 1993 blasts case are on a hit list. Poor guys get daily threats to their wives and kids. That is why people hit the dirt and lurked in random Qualis' exercising emcon. For all anyone knew the terrorists had hacked the PCR.

I imagine ATS didn't exactly see the point in getting more people killed either. That should explain Sri. Gafoor's reply to the Hon. MHA and why Nangre-Patil ended up suffering alone out there. Besides he knows the way it works - if it happens in your area - you do whatever is required just like the guys at DB Marg. I feel it simply made more sense to disperse most of the ATS and let them wait for one of these to drift across their field of view.

The SRP and the L.A. guys were more useful in existing infrastructure protection than in crowd control. No sense in moving them across the cities and leaving other places vulnerable.

All too predictably the Hindu got it wrong - so no surprises there.

 

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