Friday, December 10, 2010

The Pakistani establishment is uninterested in transformational leadership

When one looks at Pakistan, one sees little of comfort. Pakistan is a poster child for what not to do in a modern nation state.

I am the first to admit India is far from perfect and yet most Indians I know see Pakistan as a living example of what would happen if India went very badly wrong. Other Indians I know even suggest that we study Pakistan to find out how things could go wrong in India if we become that careless.

Leadership of society in Pakistan remains hostage to a feudalistic thinking. Irrespective of whether it is the militarised bureaucracy or mainstream democratic parties or the supposedly high-minded religious leadership - they all think like corrupt landlords and treat the Pakistani people like serfs and cattle.

The people of Pakistan, who outnumber their feudal lords by about a million to one obviously resent this state of affairs. They want a more equitable social order where they enjoy the same rights and respect as other human beings in this world. When these desires are not satisfied, the ordinary Pakistani's mind (again quite naturally) wanders into the darker spaces of the human soul.

The Pakistani establishment deliberately exploits these forays into the moral abyss . By transforming the natural frustration of the Pakistani people into an outright hatred of an external enemy, the Pakistani establishment fashions a weapon out of domestic public opinion to hold at the international community's throat.

What ordinary Pakistanis want more than water or food or medicines is a leadership that treats them with honour and provides them with basic sense of human dignity - a leadership that allows them to feel a sense of pride that revolves around who they are - and not around who they are supposed to be.

This is a gigantic shift from the way things were/are done in Pakistan.

I feel the Pakistani establishment as it currently stands cannot provide this kind of transformational leadership. The establishment is far too status quoist. The entire setup is simply keen to keep engineering terrorist acts inside or outside Pakistan to keep itself in power.

I cannot bring myself to sympathise with such behaviour.

The recent State Department cables released on the Wikileaks site bring into focus the growing sense of weariness in American observers in the region. This clarity is beneficial from India's perspective.

What is however even more telling is the Pakistani response to Cablegate. The newspapers have run every cable leak story that discredits anyone but the Pakistani military. And when confronted with the fact that the cables offer an extremely candid view of the Pakistani military and its sordid relationship to terrorist groups - the Pakistani establishment has responded with a pathetic attempt at psyops. The establishment asked its mouthpieces to go town pretending that there were cables there that were highly critical of the Indian Army and its human rights record in Kashmir. The plain stupidity of this kind of behaviour was apparent to all when these people got caught faking the cables.

Sadly even this humiliation is going to do little to change the mindset of the Pakistani establishment.

It is unclear what if anything is ever going to bring them around to the path of sanity.

498 Comments:

At 9:07 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Off Topic

 
At 4:01 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Kavita-Karkare-rubbishes-Digvijays-claim/articleshow/7082773.cms

 
At 9:43 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hang on a minute DFC.

Brihaspati says on BRF.

"Mumbai has reaped in a sense its own karma. Cynical it may seem, but it seems to have fit perfectly the classical allegory of a city devoted to profit only - the ultimate "whore" of an urban centre of Abrahamic memes. It may seem crude to remark so, but one day in the not so distant future, the city will be destroyed - out of its own greed and putting up everything for sale. It has allowed D-company and through it the Paki and Gulf influences - simply because of the profits such associations bring. it has still not penalized the roots and centres of the abomination that 26/11 was even electorally. All this simply because of potential future profits in getting raped currently."

@brihaspati

Utterly charming sentiments you have regarding a city I call home.

Not very different from what one Ajmal Kasab and his friends thought about it.

So remind me what the difference between you and that lot is? - just so that I can try to keep that mind.

******

It never fails to amaze me how much people let a leaked cable from the State Department causes some people to change their tune.

The investigation into the conspiracy angle to the events on 26/11 remains open. We have yet to uncover who is responsible for setting this into motion.

The needle of suspicion has pointed to many but there is an absence of concrete evidence.

The opinion of the US State Department officials in this regard is irrelevant. The case will remain open in until progress is made.

If you accuse Sri. A. R. Antulay and Sri. Digvijay Singh of playing politics with the death of Sri. Karkare - that same accusation can be leveled at the entire right-wing leadership including most of their self-appointed representatives on BR.

Politics allows anyone to dance on graves - that is its nature.

 
At 2:45 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

Abrahamic memes. What the f*** is that? Capitalism is a middle east idea? What utter horse shit. That clown is the perfect representative of what BRF has become. A sounding board for psuedo intellectual lame brains.

 
At 2:59 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

The opinion of the US State Department officials in this regard is irrelevant. The case will remain open in until progress is made.
*********************************
A little bit too much transparency, eh?

 
At 11:02 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/IM-had-plans-to-kill-Karkare-reveals-email/articleshow/7084650.cms

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/sunday-toi/special-report/The-US-viceroy-rules-Islamabad/articleshow/7085296.cms

 
At 12:30 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

You mean Pakistan is the 51st state? I wuz hoping for Bali or something like that. :-[

 
At 12:44 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Yamrika will not condescend to give Pukistan the status of a state ...
Bali maybe ... Pattaya certainly

Most of Pukistan is a condominium between Yamrika and west Poonjab.

Its a protectorate much the same way Sudan was under Anglo-egyptian rule...

And as you can see its not a new model,

Anglo-Saxons have perfected it over a nice longish period of time.

It always involves promoting "good abduls" at the cost of "bad abduls" because latter could inconveniently be afflicted by patriotic and/or nationalistic feeling.

 
At 10:54 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

I was watching "cooking in the Danger Zone" on cable tv. A British dude travels all over the world trying cuisine in dangerous places. So the dude went to India. Huh? Interviewed a family of dalits to see what they do for their chow. Well, they work their ass off out in the fields and get a portion of the rice to eat. Plus any field rats they happen to catch. A very hard life. What struck me is how labor intensive agriculture is in India. I am used to seeing vast rice fields in Texas where just a couple of humans can raise 1000's of acres of rice and harvest it. The dalits do it all by hand. And the land owners always suspect them of stealing rice. A tough life. Then watched as he followed a dalit who was a lunch deliverer in Mumbai. Why this is in the danger zone I have no idea. Thev dalit picked up his clients lunches at their houses and took them to the clients job site in downtown Mumbai. The dude makes about $100 a week doing this. Enough to take care of his family and his brother in laws family. Please notice that the British dude never had lunch with a brahmin. I mean, who wants to eat with THEM? Just the dalits. All in good fun I guess.

 
At 12:52 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 1:25 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 9:01 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

-

 
At 10:30 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Ralphy,

That sounds like an accurate description of the diet of rural farm workers in the rice producing regions of India.

I don't know if you have to be dalit to eat that food. I suspect you don't, I suspect it is a poverty issue - not so much a caste issue.

Eating rats, squirrels, crows etc... is not uncommon in India.

Most of India's agriculture is manpower intensive. A great fraction of it is subsistence level agriculture.

I don't know what fraction of the Bombay urban poor self-identify as dalit. If the support base of the RPI is anything to go by, I suspect it is not as high. Nutrition standards are not too great in the city, but they are better than the rural sector.

Basically you will never go hungry in Bombay. In the villages, if you don't get a job working on the field that day, you might end up starving.

It is not a good state of affairs, but we are trying to fix it.

 
At 10:56 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Another thing about the Brits that I have come to grasp recently.

I have been watching a show called Spooks which is kind of a like Monty Python meets "24".

I find the show interesting. I think it profiles the events of the last decade in a very different light than I have seen before.

It also offers a very stark portrayal of the British intelligence community.

The show depicts mindset within the British intelligence community (which appears to be still dominated by upper class patricians) that is more than a little anachronistic.

The mindset of the upper class patricians is Kiplingesque. They actually believe that Britain should continue to punch above its weight and are willing to do anything to achieve that aim. Don't get me wrong, I love Hugh Laurie's character ("Jools Siviter") but that is a terrible person to have as an actual officer in the service.

The mindset of the non-patrician servile types that labour under the Cambridge graduates is quite disturbing as well. There is a pseudo-liberalism that acts as a partial foil to too much rubbish from the patricians but at the same time this same fake liberalism blithely accepts the patrician's version of history.

The big focus of the show is the struggle to keep the little isle safe from harm while the patricians gallivant about the planet on their imaginary white horse short-changing nations everywhere.

The current villain in British minds is the Neo-conservative movement in the US which is seeking to maximise the American footprint in Britain. As the entire British military industrial complex is effectively a subsidiary of its American cousin, there is little room for the security intelligence types to maneuver when it comes to UK-US relations. The "close relationship" is more like a stranglehold and the security services have to do what they can to protect the limited freedom they do enjoy.

The characters portrayed in this drama reveal a good bit about the unstable nature of ethnic dynamics in British society. There is a desire to maintain the outward appearance of secular institutions staffed by tolerant persons of high moral standard. So the "Grid" is packed with Muslims of Pakistani descent loyal to HMG.

If that isn't striking enough, India is identified as an adversarial creature, with elements of its intelligence community at odds with or in direct conflict with British intelligence on several occasions.

Whenever possible the Pakistanis are portrayed as good souls who are just trying to get by and the odd Indian is shown as a shopkeeping Gungadin type fellow who does whatever the Brit intelligence officer asks him to.

I can understand if the people who made the show wanted to depict positive role models for young British Muslim boys of Pakistani origin, however I doubt that is actually the case. I mean they actually have a Muslim officer of MI-5 blowing up a train full of Iranian women and children and accidentally releasing a bio-weapon on Iranian soil. The only redemption for this character is the unproven allegation that all this was done on indirect American provocation and that he is himself affected by the bio-weapon he accidentally unleashed. The rest of the series is spend convincingly denying the British role in the bombing.

If this is an accurate picture of the state of mind of British national security types, that is truly disturbing. It shows the British in a poorer light than the Pakistanis. At least the Pakistani nation, however f-ed up it is - is real. Britain empire is completely virtual.

I can understand it if the generation of security service officers after Indian Independence had a poor view of India but for such notions to persist half a century afterward suggest something more damaging is at work.

 
At 1:24 PM, Blogger maverick said...

I guess the really hilarious part about this is that the roles of the brit Muslims loyal to HMG are played by Indian actors.

What a masterpiece!

 
At 2:57 PM, Blogger sv said...

Maverick

Just finished reading (took a long time since I am a lazy reader) the three-in-one Len Deighton's "Berlin Game, Mexico Set, London Match" which was written around 1986. Reading your description of Spooks, looks like nothing changed with the upper crust brit babooz (they seem to have booze steadily through out the working day) if one accepts that what is shown on the telly has some resemblance to real life.

Am a huge fan of Hugh Laurie - especially his Wooster in "Jeeves and Wooster" series. Of course, Wodehouse is unsurpassed in his merciless caricature of the upper crust Oxbridge club going gentlemen types, the sundry antique collecting lauds and ginrummy playing ladies. He should be made required reading for the contemporary brit kids so that when they grow up they would push for the abolition of the joke called the "the monarchy" and finish off the House of Lords as an institution.

 
At 6:23 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Alright,

Just to clear confusion -

NPCIL has a technical wing headed by a director ...

I do know the gentleman who was most influential in designing the 700 MWe PHWR ...

However NPCIL does get inputs from BARC even now on the PHWR program ...

There are always people from BARC involved in R&D...

Just to give an overview of the kind of interaction BARC has with NPCIL on PHWRs here's a nice pdf people may want to read...

PHWRs

 
At 7:35 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

More recently,


In the present configuration of
700 MWe calandria for the Kaiga
There is a need to predict moderator c i r c u l a t i o n p a t t e r n s a n d and temperature distribution to ensure adequate cooling margin for all
channels by removing about 123
MW of heat generated in
moderator at full power. The
analysis at BARC showed that the
maximum temperature observed
in the calandria was within the
design limits during normal
operation.

 
At 8:33 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear SV,

A very large amount of this serial appears to be devoted to foiling a war between the US and Iran.

It makes sense when you realise that the Brits are heavily invested in the company now known as BP and a war in the middle east could lead to lasting damage to British investments in the region.

The Neocons pushed really hard for as many wars as possible. The Brits seem very keen in this serial to prevent war with Iran.

While other powers like France, Russia and China worked against war between Iran and the US by supplying Iran arms to defend itself - the serial suggests that Britain mobilised its intelligence community to stall any American efforts to trigger a war with Iran.

There are two themes of interest here. Firstly, in the serial, the Americans are shown to be trying to engineer terrorist acts in UK and Europe that could be blamed on Iran and secondly, the Americans are depicted as trying to expose Iran's pursuit of weapons of mass destruction.

The House of Lords is basically the UK equivalent of the billionaires club. If you want to know who the big investors are in things the UK intelligence community is trying to protect - look no further than the house of Lords.

It is interesting - in the serial, the people from the House of Lords, directly influence the workings of the intelligence community by having drinks with the high officials at exclusive clubs and the people from the House of Commons influence the intelligence community via face-to-face meetings in safe houses where they threaten to collapse the government in power.

And oh yes.. one more thing. In the serial, the editors of the papers are British, but the owners are American. Curious symmetry wouldn't you say?

 
At 2:02 PM, Blogger NSNChinaDesk said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 10:00 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello NSNChinaDesk,

Politics is always played with the misfortunes of others - just ask the 9/11 victims.

Unlike you I am apolitical - so I can remember things like that.

And unlike some other people I can't pretend that the right wing types don't play politics on the death of Sri. Karkare.

What is the difference between people who shout "Islam khatre mein hain" and people who run about shouting "India khatre mein hain"? - after all both feed off those too stupid to tell otherwise.

If you can't stomach that right now - it is fine. You will grow up eventually.

As things stand, we are no closer to unraveling the conspiracy angle to 26/11.

 
At 12:42 PM, Blogger GinC said...

Maverick - Heads-up..you may like to check out BRF (US thread) where you and your blog is being discussed. For example did you know that with "traitors like you" Sanku et all do not need any enemies..."

I think I was wrong when I disagreed to a past comment here that DF is looking more like pakdef forum... Conspiracy theories and hate there is amazing.

 
At 12:45 PM, Blogger GinC said...

NSNChinaDesk:

Hello. By any chance would you like to divulge you handle in BRF?

Thanks in advance.

 
At 1:22 PM, Blogger NSNChinaDesk said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 2:18 PM, Blogger GinC said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 2:20 PM, Blogger NSNChinaDesk said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 2:20 PM, Blogger GinC said...

Mav:

>>> Sorry the above post was in response to a foul post which, thankfully, has been removed.

I will leave the above post untouched for a while and then remove this and the previous post.

 
At 2:30 PM, Blogger GinC said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 2:37 PM, Blogger GinC said...

Mav, et all:

Do you know this NSNChinaDesk?
Is he/she/it for real? He/she/it seems to be fascinated with rats.

Just wondering if pest control for rats is needed here.

In case you are confused, he/she/it has posted and then removed just a few minutes later pretty foul posts..

 
At 2:56 PM, Blogger Ram said...

AmberG = GinC???

Makes so much sense

And Maverick thanks for coming out of the closet regarding your views on Karkare. Not much difference between you and Digvijay.

 
At 6:03 PM, Blogger GinC said...

Makes so much sense
LOL! of course!
AjmalK=AmarS=ZaidH=Ram=NSNChinaDesk=whatever!

Mav: on a more serious note, when I think of it, the posts which were deleted were not only foul but contained threats against you (and may be others.. it did mention few names..but I don't know/remember them... You ought to take it seriously and provide the IP address etc to local law enforce agency as well as homeland security (if these IP address originated from US)... One can't be too careful as some of the terror suspects arrested in US did participate in such kind of internet activities.

Best.

 
At 8:59 PM, Blogger Anand K said...

Heh Heh

My (current) favorite CT is of course the "Chanakya System" by a formidable poll & politics pundit with a 400% accuracy record. I mean, it's intriguing and ticklish at the same time.... just like that Lady Gaga-is-a-man theory.

 
At 4:31 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

Now the intellectual genii of BRF are wondering why Obama wasn't invited to the royal wedding of the prince and his hot fiance.

Har de har har har.

Clues to the clueless: US presidents don't attend royal weddings of any sort. Gee, I wonder why that is? grin.

 
At 9:20 AM, Blogger Ravi said...

tsk, tsk – holier than thou posturing no different than the Hindutva extremism of BRF gladiators for Hindoo centric leadership.

You start by donning the testicle protecting disclaimer

“I am the first to admit India is far from perfect and yet most Indians I know see Pakistan as a living example of what would happen if India went very badly wrong. “


Implication is that India is on the positive path – the cocaine addict feeling superior to the heroin junkie!!

“Leadership of society in Pakistan remains hostage to a feudalistic thinking. “

Is Indian society different – my native Tamilnadu for example. Part of the tiger states of India.

“What ordinary Pakistanis want more than water or food or medicines is a leadership that treats them with honour and provides them with basic sense of human dignity “


gimme a break – you really think the rib cage exposed child competing with goats for garbage bothers about leadership?

“It is unclear what if anything is ever going to bring them around to the path of sanity. “

It was India's nuclear shennaginans that forced the Pakis to go equal equal.

Arjuna's justification for war should be applied to Pakistan also.

As a south inidian vadama Brahmin I know transformational leadersip should be left to us elites and we do exercise it in India. Let the Pakis do the same.

 
At 9:45 AM, Blogger Ram said...

AmberG aka GinC, nice tries at denying your identity but its pretty obvious. Sorry, I am not NSNChina or whatever. I am just a lurker who saw your proudly posted link ..man, you do love to whine though, complaints on complaints and ...you should be in Indian politics

 
At 11:16 AM, Blogger Anand K said...

Ravi=PIyengar?
:P

PS: Arjuna was the one who lost his heart, no? It was Krishna who spelt out the raisin dieter for war and goaded Arjuna to go for the Kaurava jaguar vein. True Chankian Earth-e-shaster Janaab Krishna was.

Present day Pakistan was represented by the kingdoms of Sindhu (the local king was kinda forerunner to Yousaf Geelani BTW), Madra, Gandhara, Trigarta, Kekaya, Kamboja and Bahlika..... all whose armies were annihilated by the end of the shooting war. Oh wait... in those parts history begins in 712 AD. My bad!

PPS: Pardon my pashto but why the #$@& am I saying all this here. 399.99% of vadama iyers would have got the ithihaas lectures right when they were in their nappies, no?

 
At 2:24 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

It looks like Vuvuzela has found this blog.

 
At 5:14 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

It appears the unmasking of the CIA chief in Pakistan was in retaliation for a lawsuit in New York against the ISI chief for the 26/11 massacre.

 
At 8:38 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

Bank of America says no more dough to wikileaks.

Also no comments on BRF about wiki leaks document describing Red Cross complaints to US state department about prisoner abuse in Kashmir by Indian authorities. Use of electricity, beatings an use of heavy weights placed on prisoners laps in order to crush the tidbits. Some pretty nasty stuff, if true. Not sure what they expect the US state department to do about it.

 
At 1:58 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello,

I am reading the cable with the conversation with Sri. Rahul Gandhi and US officials.

I don't see anything wrong in what he is saying.

I agree with his comments about the nature of the risk posed by home-grown extremists especially elements of the Hindu and Muslim far-right.

 
At 2:14 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Ram,

Sri. Digvijay Singh is a political person - I am not. Try to keep that in mind.

When ABV was PM and Advaniji was MHA, I stood by every decision they took regardless of how many lives it cost.

Right now, I see a problem.

There is a lack of reliable information on the conspiracy angle.

We do not know who asked ISI-LeT to carry out the attack.

Given the nature of Sri. Karkare's investigations, the "Hindu-Right" is a natural suspect.

There are other suspects as well.

So if the "Hindu-Right" is innocent - then maybe it is best if the Ram-Rakshaks stop acting like they are actually guilty.

I know as always the Ram-Rakshaks are caught between seeking to make political capital out of national security issues and somehow escaping all responsibility for these events.

Amusing as that is - this kind of behaviour is an unnecessary distraction for people like me who are seeking answers to meaningful questions.

Try to be part of the solution - instead of the problem.

 
At 2:44 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Ravi,

"Implication is that India is on the positive path – the cocaine addict feeling superior to the heroin junkie!!"

Actually, that is the most succinct description I have seen.

Grim faces today stare at the possibility of a crack cocaine epidemic in India.

"Is Indian society different – my native Tamilnadu for example. Part of the tiger states of India."

A great deal of feudal excesses are prevented by the sheer size of India.

In Pakistan, the small size works against it. The Army was supposed to be an egalitarian institution, however the way that the top brass are behaving is no different from a feudal setup.

Social mobility is deeply frustrated in Pakistan. Even more so than in India.

"gimme a break – you really think the rib cage exposed child competing with goats for garbage bothers about leadership?"

Yes - I do.

I don't know if one can actually feed the poor in Pakistan - but one can give them a sense of dignity and hopefully that will take the edge off Pakistan's troubles.

Contrary to prevailing thinking in Aabpara Chowk, that will not happen when India hands over Kashmir - but when Pakistan's leadership emphasises peace over war.

"It was India's nuclear shennaginans that forced the Pakis to go equal equal."

If they want to be equal to India - then why not just end the experiment - and make Pakistan a secular pluralistic democracy like India with a constitutional sense of nationalism?

"Arjuna's justification for war should be applied to Pakistan also."

I happen to think Arjunan's justification can be interpreted in self-serving ways.

Quite frankly I feel the sons of Pandu had *no* legitimate claim to the throne.

Pandu became king by default in an age that did not respect the rights of his handicapped brother Dhritarashtra. It has become convenient for some writers to forget that the blind king ruled justly for decades after Pandu abdicated in remorse.

Pandu and his sons were just and upright individuals but they did not share a bloodline.

Merely claiming divine right does not mean universal acceptance or legitimacy.

If the elite of Pakistan seek to follow the trajectory of the sons of Pandu, they do so with the knowledge of what horrors await in the age of Parikshit.

This in my humble opinion is the only learning from the great epic.

"As a south inidian vadama Brahmin I know transformational leadersip should be left to us elites and we do exercise it in India. Let the Pakis do the same."

I do not subscribe to brahminical thinking of that sort.

I find more to agree with in the rough and tumble of a raucous democracy then in the most erudite courts of a divinely guided dictatorship.

Perhaps it is best if we agree to disagree.

 
At 2:55 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Ravi,

If you have not already, I recommend that you read Iravati Karve's opinions on the Mahabharat.

An old friend, Faizi suggested them to me some years ago, and I must say I have benefited from them.

Dear Ralphy,

> Torture in Kashmir.

I think there is at least one letter a day sent to the Prime Minister by some Gandhian or freedom fighter complaining about police excesses.

I doubt the Red Cross complaining about it to the USG will do anything to raise eyebrows in India.

Post 9/11 and Abu Ghraib, the standards for making a racket about human rights violations of administrative detainees, is out of fashion in the US too.

 
At 2:57 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Ralphy,

> CIA man outed in response to Chief being named in NY lawsuit.

So what is the end game here?

Are the Angels of Aabpara saying if you put pressure on us - we will put pressure on your drone campaign?

 
At 3:51 AM, Blogger powerslave said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 4:08 AM, Blogger powerslave said...

I know Maverickji won't allow me to use this space to pay my due respects to sons of the soil like Digvijay Singh but the fact is his intentions of justifying Jihadi terror were clear the day when he opened his lousy mouth over the Batla house encounter, his attempts to link the Malegaon blasts, 26/11 and Karkare's death are aimed at repulsing the advances BJP has made up in NAARTH .

 
At 4:42 AM, Blogger Rohbutt Firaust said...

Column : Arming while aiming

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/column-arming-while-aiming/727202/0

Six arguments on the observations made by both foreign and Indian analysts on the Indian defence sector

 
At 5:48 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Powerslave,

Digvijay Singh is a politician. He is playing politics.

The same is true of all the herrows who ran around on the forum during the crisis talking about how MMS was incompetent etc... etc...

To see all the Ram-Rakshaks complain about Digvijay Singh playing politics - is a bit like the pot calling the kettle black.

That just has no credibility for me.

Politics is usually played by dancing on the graves of the innocents murdered.

I am too old a bird to be upset about this. Perhaps my tolerance levels are very high, but I am not in the least bit affected by this.

 
At 6:31 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Ravi and Ram,

An explanation is perhaps necessary - one that will shed light on matters at hand.

I belong to a Hindu Brahmin clan that hails from the same region as the late Sri. Karkare.

A few streets down from where my grandmother once lived is a building that houses all the gold in India. My own relatives have passed out of the same college that Sri. Karkare passed out of. Like so many others that have lived in those parts, our community believes (wrongly perhaps) that the region is the center of the earth.

Like Sri. Karkare's ancestors, my clansmen faced the short end of the stick after the Mahatma was murdered in 1948.

We were held guilty by association. It is no lie that we have always been associated with the Hindu radicalism that emerged out of law colleges in the region. It was pretty cool to be radical and got the chicks interested in you - but at no point did most of our community endorse that kinds of terrorism that the extremists wanted.

Our great fault was that we looked away, we did nothing and hoped the problem would go away. We let the extremists use our associations and our community gathers to prosletyze and even occasionally agreed with their rhetoric just to shut them up. We were arrogant and believed nothing could possibly go wrong with that kind of attitude.

When it did all go wrong - remorse and sadness over the death of the Mahatma was instantaneous and genuine in our community. An unbearable sense of shame overcame the entire community. Our community had just been tagged with the greatest crime in India since the murder of Guru Tej Bahadur by Emperor Aurangzeb.

After Gandhiji was murdered by people from our caste, mobs visited our ancestral homes and everyone including our own relatives in the legal machinery turned their backs on the community. Our name was mud in the country and everyone hated us. We emerged as the most hated figures in regional history next only perhaps to the people who betrayed the Chaphekar bandhu or perhaps to the two bankers who sold out Bhausaheb Peshwa at the battle of Panipat.

This peculiar event led to a serious rethink within this community and many of the later generations began to take a very dim view of the kinds of extreme ideas that brahminical fraternities inspire. Collectively we stopped looking the other way.

Don't get me wrong - we still try to marry within caste, we still hold fraternal associations that exclude other castes, my relatives still attend RSS shakas and we still celebrate a fairly distinct brand of Hindu culture- but the community as a whole is quite ... how shall I put it ... "anti-radicalised"... perhaps.

People like us stand in the way of the march of extremist ideas. We are the people in middle and we stop things from going too far.

It may be best to compare our Hinduism to Sri. K P S Gill's Sikhism or to the Islam of Sri. S. A. Watali.

 
At 12:25 PM, Blogger maverick said...

> Just as Gandhi's assassination provided a cover for anti RSS operations, sections of Congress want to use "terror" charges to go after RSS.

Amusing as it is to see the most vocal advocates of Prevention of Terrorism Act now cringing in fear at the prospect of being targeted by it - I don't think anything is going to happen unless there is actual evidence of wrong doing.

Where there is evidence of wrong doing, I expect the law of the land will take its course.

Unless you are completely stupid - you will realise that the bulk of India's population is very young and the majority of the young men self-identify as Hindu.

If you think the GoI is going to stand by and watch a cancer of radicalism infect the youth of India - you are seriously mistaken.

You have to understand - from a law enforcement perspective - it really doesn't matter if an IM supported LeT bomb or Fidayeen squad murders a dozen people or if a religiously charged Hindu mob indulges in rioting and selectively kills Muslims somewhere in India.

Kudos to Sri. Rahul Gandhi for publicly saying that.

 
At 1:11 PM, Blogger GinC said...

"... I am not NSNChina or whatever. I am just a lurker...."

Could be as NSNChina's posts contained little more than profanity but still gentel readers, let me repost the posts what the likes of Ram are defending ...

Venkarl wrote:
Philip saar....probably Michelle is meeting sex workers to seek tips and tricks...its education from east you know....Obama will run USA from his bed room after Mr & Mrs Hussain return...I already hear Michelle saying this "Oohhbaangmaa say good bye to white house"


I think, Mav posted here that such language should have caused a permanent ban, yet this is what cuased deshbhakts like Ram/Sanku to call Mav worse than a traitor.
(Not to mention that even senior members and admins bless this kind of posts in BRF..GOI and world leaders are called with these crude terms at will)


Ralphy - On the wikileak thread , apart from wondering why Obama is/was not invited to Prince's (or Cheslea's) weddding etc - again kid you not - you will see posts like -

"arjunm wrote: Rahul Gandhi's Saffron threat-"

(This is the text in the entire message, it is linked to a old picture of Rahul Gandhi in a sporting event) - Some one wonderd why it was there.. results in avalance of messages .. all because ...some one showing more than an ankle in that picture..a cause for holy war for these Ram=arjunm... Trust me it is very educational to understand what makes people riots after Nilofar Bakhtiar's parachute jumping)
Some one wondered in BRF, if all that attack was due to "the less pious being asked by the more pious to prove their loyalty" but I am afraid, even with Gerard, JEM, Rangudu, Enquoob etc it is more likely that there would be reform in Blasphamy laws in Pak than atmosphere will change in BRF.

Let me leave you with this gem --- giving the ultimate truth to BRF - from wikileaks thread ..

"It was Christians who enslaved people all over the planet and caused millions of death all the while telling people about Jesus Christ's teachings.
It was Christians and Christians alone in the entire history of human race who used nuclear weapons on innocent human beings all the while taking pride in Christian values. No other religion and their followers have ever done that so far."


Have no idea, how this relates to Wikileak or RG=Mush theory propagated there...

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you all!

 
At 1:11 PM, Blogger GinC said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 1:30 PM, Blogger GinC said...

Powerslave -

Honestly I do not follow Indian news that closely as many do here so did not know all the details .. so thanks for your post (and others posts) about Digvijay Singh..

(Of course, his act is shameful)

Unfortunately those who are using that as an excuse to attack others (as BRF members are doing) only makes the things worse.

 
At 3:42 PM, Blogger Ram said...

Hi Maverick,

You are just taking whatever is left of your reputation and flushing it more down the toilet.

No need to now claim to be a brahmin & then then go on with that brahmins lead to radical ideas and what not, while you and your family are the epitome of balance. What a glory seeking, sad man you are.

In reading your posting built around self glory, theres not much difference between your views & those of Digvijaya Singh and Amaresh Mishra, Sandeep Pandey...all of you Congress supporting, extra-secular guys, are obsessed with superiority of your own caste, your supposed intelligence and how you are superior to everyone, and tout your caste id while slinging mud at others and posturing as superior.

Reminds me of that Congress governor Bhargava, who when confronted about his partisanship, promptly said "I am a brahmin" and hence cannot be wrong.

Same way Digvijaya remembers his Thakur id whenever it gets him support, and how you tout your supposed Hinduism (and all the while talking crap about Hindu extremists and what not).

In reality, you are the same as the Mishras and Singhs. Only they are a bit more crude and express their opinion directly while you try to put the costume of balance on it.

After all, they are not from *ale and cannot claim to be consultant, sitting abroad, while being expert on India.

AmberG aka GinC, I am neither bother or care about your ranting or venting. If you have problem with BRForums, take it up with them, na.

All I was saying was your id was obvious na, posting so many details on Maverick and giving this link. Funny that you are still denying it.

 
At 3:46 PM, Blogger Ram said...

>>Kudos to Sri. Rahul Gandhi for publicly saying that.

Yet another confirmation of what I am saying. I mean, so far, you must have fooled so many people by pretending to be moderate and balanced. But this incident, made your mask slip and ultimately, you have just proven yourself to be a shameful political hack, trying to spin his masters voice.

A career as a fixer is well suited for you, provided you are willing to give up lure of citizenship "in evil America" which you curse so much. Barkha Dutt, Nira Radia meet Maverick.

 
At 8:16 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

Hmmm, Ram is not Vuvuzela? Now I am scratching my head. So who is Ram?

 
At 8:23 PM, Blogger dilbert said...

Thanks to BRF member Gagan for these links:
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4

Absolutely hilarious series of interviews with Najam Sethi on Paki TV, showing the truth of the relationship between Pak and China.

 
At 8:27 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

Dear Maverick,

The US will maintain pressure om Pakistan. Pakistan is in deep trouble with their own terrorism issues.The Pakistani elite are fearful. They know the jihadis will turn on them if given a chance. There has already been slip ups. With more to come.

 
At 9:59 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Ram Ram Bhai,

Jai Shri Ram!

Zimble point only ...


>>>>>>> AmberG aka GinC, I am neither bother or care about your ranting or venting. If you have problem with BRForums, take it up with them, na.

>>>>>>> All I was saying was your id was obvious na, posting so many details on Maverick and giving this link. Funny that you are still denying it.

Arre Bhai, AmberG posts here as AmberG ... GinC is another BRFite but not AmberG ...

Chillax dude ... Bole so Nihal, Sat Sri Akaal ...

Jai jai Shiv Shankar, kaantaa lagae na kankad, jo pyalaa terae naam da piyaa!

Cheers!

 
At 10:02 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Ram Ram ji,

Here is something exclusively for you ... enjoy and stew ... :)



Shri Ramchandra kah gayae Siyaa se
Aisa kaliyug Aayaegaa
Janm hua thaa kanhaa hamaraa
High Court batlayaegaa


Hare Krishnaa Hare Ram!

 
At 10:33 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Ram,

I sense you are taking my words to support what appear to be preconceived conclusions about me.

Perhaps if you abandon the preconceived notions about me you may find this a more meaningful dialogue.

I am a Brahmin but quite anti-extremist. There are others like me, and so inductively it stands that not all Brahmins are extremists and consorting with my caste does *not* make a person an extremist.

There are all kinds of people in my caste, some hold very extreme views but not all of us agree with such views and a great many of us stand against this kind of thinking.

You are comparing me to Sri. Digvijay Singh, Amaresh Mishra and Sandeep Pandey - all people who have mounted political challenges to the "Hindu-Right".

This comparison is unfortunate because you are constructing a political enmity where none exists.

I find it helps to compare the present situation with one that occurred in the not to distant past.

There was a time when the youth of India had become drawn toward left wing ideologies. A good fraction of this was due to the close ties between India and the USSR. For the most part this was a good thing, because it ensured the workers rights were protected in independent India. It also ensured that no industrial lobby became powerful enough to challenge the fledgling democratic order.

However an toxic by product of the spread of Marxist thought in India was that a number of fringe groups sprouted up which clustered around extreme visions of a communist utopia. A number of the leftist parties in India were infiltrated by these extremophiles and that skewed their participation in the democratic process.

At that time, several campaigns were taken by the national security community in India to reduce the influence of these extremists on the body politic.

A large number of the moderate leftists *and* the mainstream left wing parties assisted in the task of bringing extremism down.

This was done while maintaining friendly relations with the Soviet Union *and* a sustained democratic process in the country.

Today India is in a close relationship with the US. The American way of thinking is infiltrating the Indian body politic. We are absorbing both the good and bad ideas that come from American sources.

The notion of a progressive nationalism is as good as anything else. The idea of "one nation under God" is alluring to many young people. American political fashions like "social conservative thinking",non-dynastic leadership, "a one way separation of church and state" etc... are entering the Indian body politic.

Unfortunately along with some relatively benign concepts - a good deal of right wing radicalism is also finding its way from the US to India. All the major religious communities in India are affected by this - Hindu, Muslim, Christian.

It is only natural that the national security community will recognise and prosecute such threats.

contd.

 
At 10:57 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Ram,

contd. from previous post.

Does this mean that GoI is going to round up everyone perceived as being extremist? - I don't think so.

A more rational approach would be to target those that are guilty of actual crimes and then sensitise the public to the existence of such extremist thought. This way the problem will largely fix itself as an aware and enlightened public distances itself from the lunatic fringe. The effectiveness of this approach will be far greater if care is taken to ensure innocents are not harmed.

The national security community is sensitive to the needs of the political party but only up to a point. Cracking down on trouble makers could create problems for parties which use religion as a part of their political strategy making. However, if the resources required to contain the problem are likely to rise exponentially if something is not done right away - then the national security community will act regardless of the political cost.

Arresting Muslim extremists could affect those political parties which use the "Islam Khatre Mein Hai" flag to gather votes. Similarly, going after Hindu extremists might affect the fortune of any political party that uses "Dharma khatre mein hain" to get votes.

I stress the word "could" and "might" in the previous paragraph. It does not *have* to affect anyone's political fortunes. If a political party distances itself from extremists then the political damage will be negligible.

For associations and social groups where extremists peddle their stuff, the only sound advice I can offer is for members to seek ways of minimising their influence.

I feel (based on the Wikileaks report) that Sri. Rahul Gandhi is well informed of the problems facing India.

You seem to be more politically minded than me - so perhaps you are better placed to tell me whether or not that makes him "Prime Minister" material.

I do not know if you are merely a political hack or a true believer, but I imagine time will tell.

 
At 11:08 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Ralphy,

Thanks for the clarification.

I think I know who Ram is.

I feel he (like many others) does not grasp that the sheer size of the organisations like the ones he cares about has grown considerably and it is difficult to keep track of what everyone is doing.

The days of small compact groups where everyone knew everyone are gone. Today the organisations have thousands of subsidiaries and branches across several continents which largely independently define agendas and follow loosely allied goals.

Perhaps he does not appreciate the extent to which the leadership of such organisations will welcome efforts to track extremism and criminal infiltration.

 
At 9:02 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Hi Mav,

I empathize with your issues of your caste versus your standing with respect to your caste's collective views ... it is always tricky.

For example, I believe that Sandeep Pandey is the son of a friend of my father ... isn't he the dude who won the Magalaysay Prize or some such? His Dad, i.e., "Uncle-ji" was visiting once and beamed about his son and his prize etc ... my Dad beamed along with him ... and I? I just didn't feel like bringing politics into such an intimate community exchange ...

The Brahmins of yore in UP, some of them my relatives, ranged from quite corrupt to actually idealistic ... for example, Kamlapati was a Gandhian but allowed his family to be corrupt, which negated his own principles ... [the pun as that he ruled by Bahu-mat, i.e., not majority view but the view of daughter-in-law ...]

However in days befor ethat we had folks like Acharya Narendra Dev, who were simultaneously stoic and austere ...

lately, the dude from Gorakhpur (some Pandey whose name escapes me) who was a smuggler kingpin and the other dude who shares my name, Amar Mani Tripathi [for a while he dominated google hits above mine] are examples of extremely criminal low-level individuals who are a shame on society ... I have no regrets that they have been replaced by new crooks of the Mayawati type ... social change is evident in UP.

 
At 6:09 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Mani,

Caste association is a very tricky business.

People get a sense of comfort to be with others who have similar social background as you - but it also provides a platform for all manner of mentally imbalanced people to hide themselves from wider scrutiny.

In the community the oddball is treated as a joke - you seek him/her out at gatherings to listen to the crap that comes out of his/her mouth but there is the danger zone - you start to pretend the person is harmless.

That is where I feel the problems start.

 
At 6:40 AM, Blogger maverick said...

As far as my caste goes, we are a sum of many contradictions.

My people have been attending shakhas for a very long time. My grandfather's generation hung out with the founding members of this stuff back in the day. Folks never missed a mahaarati and my own relatives marched on Ayodhya in the 90s.

And yet very strangely, going back all the way to independence, we have stood with the Government of India when push came to shove. People from my caste have served as bodyguards to Sri. Patel and Pt. Nehru. Some of these people worked on counter-subversion efforts aimed at frustrating the march of left and right wing extremism. These are people who used to sit in Mahasabha rallies and Leftist working groups and filed reports on whatever was going on.

Politically speaking the caste loyalties are divided. My grandfather's generation voted for INC or for independents that were personally known to them. The generation after largely voted INC or BJP. Most of the people voted for the NDA in 1998 because the ABV and LKA were very highly respected leaders among the community and both Sri. Deoras and Sri. Singh were locally known faces.

Both the RSS and the BJP drew the younger members of the caste towards them because they represented the forefront of social integration, exploring ideas outside of those posited by the affirmative action program. The RSS shakhas offered a place to melt caste boundaries and many people in my caste felt this was the real way to heal social divisions.

contd.

 
At 6:40 AM, Blogger maverick said...

contd. from above.

A great many of my caste also believed that it was possible for India to have a leadership that was not dynastic and intrinsically feudal in nature and the RSS and the BJP represented a mechanism by which such a change might be achieved.

I suspect this latter portion was a reaction to the manner in which Maratha caste and their Brahmin collaborators seized control of the resources of Maharashtra state and the manner in which Desh and Bombay sub-divisions deprived hinterland of development resources. The Marathas and their Brahmin collaborators are very dynastic in their thinking. This is a very strong motivation that has led to people actually joining the BJP and in some cases standing for local election. Now you might also see why the formation of the MNS was welcomed in some parts of the community despite the violence it created.

In the last decade, the retirement of Sri. Vajpayee, the ineffectiveness of Sri. Advani and the drop in the influence of the local boys on the RSS has caused interest in these organisations to wane. As unknown and aggressive sounding voices from other parts of the country began to appear - and challenge the authority of traditional figures - concern grew over what was happening here. There was an incident some years ago where the Mahants and the VHP leadership talked back to representatives of ABV. This really did not go down well in the caste at all. Both the Mahants are the VHP leadership were Brahmins but the folks in my caste felt they were out of line to talk that way to the Prime Minister. A faction within the Sangh and VHP began publish scurrilous remarks about ABV and things came to a head when Mishraji's standing was questioned. That really riled people in my caste.

After this worries about extremists came to a fore and this was not helped by the fact that several conspiracies were discovered by our own caste members in the security services. After the events of Godhra-Ahmedabad, some of the people that were profiled by the media - such as newly "converted" tribals caused very mixed feeling. People supported the emancipation of the tribals but at the same time there was a disconcerting level of zeal in these people that suggested that they might become injurious to society as a whole. It wasn't clear to anyone of us how this was different from what the Christian and Muslim missionaries were doing.

Currently interest in the Sangh is returning now again solely due to someone from the homeworld taking helm. There is an appreciation of the fact that extremist thinking and criminals are infiltrating the ranks of the Sangh. Grave concern surrounds the nature of the weakly policed outer branches of the Sangh.

There is a hope that the new leadership will bring a greater sense of moderation to an organisation that is decaying into extremist inspired chaos.

The Sangh has a significant role to play in the debate on social issues - after all that was the aim of my grandfather's classmates, however if it is to play such a role - then it cannot become a mass of conflicting violent impulses.

 
At 6:45 AM, Blogger maverick said...

contd from above...

Given the amount that has been invested into making the Sangh, there is no way anyone from my caste wants to see that effort go to waste.

So the proverbial Augean stables have to be cleaned.

I feel it will take time and it may even be painful. I do not see any real choice in this matter.

 
At 6:54 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Ram,

Instead of comparing me to Sri. Digvijay Singh, Amaresh Mishra and Sandeep Pandey - I think it may be more appropriate to compare me to Sri. Purushottam L. Deshpande and Sri. G. D. Madgulkar.

Actually IIRC all Deshpandes from the Kolhapur region are related to my family group by marriages two generations ago. The Kolhapur Shakti Peeth is on the list of family devasthanams.

 
At 8:44 AM, Blogger Al said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 10:35 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Again - forum is jumping the gun on issues it has been repeatedly warned by sane voices to stay away from!

Adm. Mehta says that Arihant once commissioned will go on deterrent patrol.

Adm. Mehta estimates the commissioning to be in 2012.

Until the commissioning takes place - there is no reason to speculate on what shape of form the deterrent patrol will take - or even about whether the warheads will be mated with the launch platform.

Adm. Mehta has not said anything about that.

So maybe instead of cooking up stuff about how GoI has secretly revised its policy on mating weapons with delivery platforms - the forum will be better served by sticking to what Adm. Mehta has actually stated.

If the policy changes - the GoI will tell you.

Until then - don't put words in the Admiral's mouth.

Nothing has changed.

The Arihant remains a technology demonstrator. Commissioning is atleast a year or more away.

 
At 11:03 AM, Blogger maverick said...

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6BF28720101216?pageNumber=1

Have you guys read this?

 
At 10:15 PM, Blogger Anand K said...

>>Is America the Sick Man of Europe?

Man... what a downer.
Some points I feel are key to the chances of a rebound:

>>"Over the past 20 years we have simply borrowed more money in order to prosper.... We forgot that the more stable and safe way to go is to make things.... We decided as a nation to issue debt and focus on the financial sector to counter what was becoming a major structural issue in the 1980s"

Word, bro' and sista'!

BTW, even Hollywood showed flashes of brilliance with Martin Sheen's character in Wall Street, Mike Douglas's D-FENS in "Falling Down" and Julia Robert's Vivian in "Pretty Woman" among others. The point they raised was "Yeah, you are rich and all that.... but tell me what is it that you have *created*?"


>>"Incidentally, the housing mess also hurt labor mobility."

The Expanding Frontiers (physical and well as scientific) kept the U.S. fit and competitive.... the fluidity of the labor market has also kept the unions in the US from swinging to the left. Some even say this is not even the bit player it is made to be in the American capitalist economy....

>>"We're not very far from the level where the economy is not self-sustaining......"

Isn't this the steady refrain in that Perspectives on the Economic Meltdown thread?
Where BR is today.... :P

>> Two-Tier wage system
I don't exactly get what's the big taqleef. I mean, how long do they think they can get free lunches (SUV/40 hrs/five-star pay all with just a GED like in the 50s-80s).... 'specially in the age where other nations are becoming more capable and competitive.

>> The German example

Well, Germany could get away with it given the efficiency of it's industry, size, much lower expenditures in sectors like defense, refusal to take the easy (but short term ) way out and her demographics.... and willingness to provide high tech products/services to anyone with top dollah. And here we have NPA and State Dept tubelights trying to torpedo such levels of Indo-US engagement.

 
At 8:34 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

The problem of "The Race to the Bottom" is that wage levels do not take into consideration of craftsmanship. Autobody repair, heating and airconditioning, plumbing, cabinetry, electrical, certain types of machine work, etc.

 
At 11:03 AM, Blogger dilbert said...

I am not an American, but I still think it is very sad to see the slow but inexorable death of "the American Dream" as related in this article. People may now laugh at the idea of a guy with a high school diploma working his way into the middle class, but it was great while it lasted. It gave every American, even from the humblest background, the idea that he could work his way up to a decent and respectable lifestyle. All that is gone now.

The thing is, though, that Americans did this to themselves, they were not the victims of some evil foreign plot. Right wingers these days (including some of the extremist US-resident Indian crackpots on BRF) like to sneer at labour unions, the Democratic Party etc., but it was those venerable institutions that raised the whole of American society to a decent and respectable standard of living, starting with FDR's first term and continuing in to WW2 and beyond. Compare that to where America started heading towards, beginning with the rise of the Milton Friedmanesque rightwing ideology in the late Seventies and culminating with the election of Reagan. And they (American mango men) did it all to themselves. They enthusiastically, exultantly even, acquiesced in the slow destruction of their own middle-class manufacturing foundations in a gigantic sellout to China. They didn't have a clue what the American Right had planned for them; they implicitly trusted the Republican Party, and the results are there for all to see now. Don't blame China or India for "stealing jobs", America. You did it all to yourselves, willingly and enthusiastically.

For America, it is very sad to see the end of an era; for the Indian mango man, the lessons to be learned are clear: don't assume that right-wing capitalist are all patriots, looking for what is best for India. Don't assume that socialists/labour unions are all bad. Every decent and democratic society needs bot Republicans and Democrats (or their equivalents). India needs strong and energetic BJP as well as INC.

 
At 2:37 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

dilbert,

I have faith in American ingenuity ... I would not be surprised if a rapid growth in new technologies wiped out the trade deficit created by migration of manufacturing.

However, I don't think that any political class is to blame. If anything, I put the blame squarely on lawyers (oh well, most politician are lawyers ... LOL)

 
At 7:55 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Yes, the article is extremely sad - but setting that aside for now - we have a major structural problem in the US economy.

The labour force is not sufficiently mobile or economically competitive. As the US workforce ages, the health costs alone will lead to a decline in productivity. Making them work for less wages will only lead to reduction in quality as Ralphy implies - and quality in the US is not that great to begin with. Essentially I do not see the productivity levels increasing any time soon.

A "race to the bottom" will also result in a fall in the standard of living in the US will decline and the US market will shrink as consumer spending will drop. We are also likely to see massive gains made on the human rights and decencies front over the last three decades disappear if the decline in living standards is allowed to proceed to the point where it undermines society's wider sense of moral acceptability.

More debt is simply not an option. The US is now almost at the point where its debt equals 100% of current GDP. In an environment where a decline in productivity is predicted, it strongly inadvisable to hand out debt in excess of current GDP.

The current US middle class is finished. I feel a new middle class has to be constructed out of immigrants and the "re-educated" children of the old middle class.

While Sri. Manmohan Singh has publicly stated that he does not think the US economy is in an irreversible decline, I feel there may be unspoken caveats in that statement.

The decline in the US economy remains in my opinion the greatest security crisis confronting the world at the present time.

The implications for India's security must be examined carefully - as AnandK has indicated the "Germany Solution" will not work in the US.

Going forward, I would like to focus on this aspect more and less on suicidally stupid places like Pakistan.

 
At 8:13 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Ravi,

I had a long chat with an old friend yesterday and it helped clear my mind.

If you are wondering what I would like to see Pakistan doing, here is a short list.

1) The trickle down from international aid in Pakistan is too low. The feudal leadership in the Army, the political parties and the clergy simply eats too much money. That has to stop - we need to see ~ 50-60% trickle down instead of ~10% right now.

2) Stop spending on useless defence merchandise. Start building dams and water management resources. One flood or drought will irreversibly cripple the Pakistani economy. Only the Pakistani textile sector is even marginally competitive today - all other sectors food agriculture, heroin trafficking and murder-for-hire are no longer growth industries infact their profitability is highly questionable at best.

3) Without stable electric supply Pakistan's urban industrial economy will simply collapse. Internal fights between industrial lobbies for power from WAPDA will paralyse the economy. It is best if Pakistan invests its capital gains from the heroin trade into building energy resources instead of allowing the money to go as venture capital in the murder-for-hire businesses. The current policy of engaging Chinese desire to access the Arabian sea are no more than amusements - a more long term economically driven perspective on energy issues is highly desirable.

4) The banking sector needs to be restructured to ensure that the distracting influence of heroin money channels is reduced and capital flows only in the way the elected government wants it to.

5) All the Islami Tanzeems need to shut down or massively restructured. These people have outlived their utility - the Jihad is over - these people must be demobilised. Maybe these people can be used as labour for national construction projects - that is the way the Chinese "re-utilised" PLA units.

Unless such progressive steps are taken, I feel the will to help Pakistan in India will decline and the consequences of that are quite obvious. I don't think New Delhi will throw its money down a hole. It will take the cheaper option - and if Pakistan proceeds down a path that makes Pakistani lives cheap - well - you can't blame India for what happens.

 
At 11:06 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 11:08 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

An interesting article about Pakistan from a self professed liberal muslim.

http://tinyurl.com/25hxzuf

 
At 8:10 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Ralphy,

I don't understand how the 184 million Pakistanis that these folks are keen to treat as a market are going to buy what these people have to sell.

Interior design, film making, stand up comedy, and strategic analysis don't seem like things most of the 184 million Pakistanis really need.

Food, Water, Sanitation - that is more the skill set that is needed.

If these people can find ways of getting those markets opened - well that is something good - otherwise they are going to end up making being some Pakistan Army General officer's pet.

 
At 4:53 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Safiullah Akhtar of the HUJI released by Punjab government.

May I be so bold as to ask who exactly is now trying to unseat President Zardari?

And aaah - how many days will one have to wait before yet another conspiracy to remove the elected government appears before the public eye?

I am sorry - it is quite naturally the first thing that comes to mind.

 
At 5:29 AM, Blogger maverick said...

It is never a good idea to shoot the messenger.

Given our population density - every project nuclear or conventional is going to cause a serious IDP crisis. If one is talking about several major projects the numbers are going to be extremely large. I would even say we will most likely see patterns on the scale of 10% of what we seen in Bombay due to immigration from Bihar.

We need to come up with ways of mitigating the adverse circumstances.

The best case would be if the people who are displaced are given residence and employment in the plant that is built on their land. Giving the children free education will also help

Quite naturally care will be taken to ensure all places of religious activity in the affected area are treated with respect.

This is not 1976 - we can't just take over Janata Colony anymore - the backlash will be too terrible.

 
At 5:21 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello,

I would like to make a brief comment on the Binayak Sen case. There is a little time to talk about this once Dr. Sen's lawyers have filed an appeal the matter will once again be sub judice and commentary will not be possible.

As others have pointed out this could simply be a case of overzealous prosecution, however it appears the court was asked to make a difficult call.

Dr. Sen had been arrested for possessing documents that belonged to a veteran Maoist leader, Narayan Sanyal. While people like B. Raman correctly question where exactly those documents came from and how Dr. Sen came to possess them - there appears to be no debate that the writings advocate an armed conflict with the Government of India.

There is also little debate over the fact that the letters were supposed to delivered to Maoist commanders in the field and that they were part of a chain of coded transmissions between jailed Maoist leaders and active field commanders.

For details please see the response of Sri. Amitabh Thakur IPS at this website (http://tinyurl.com/28tke9t)

It appears to my untrained eye that the Hon. Justice Singh was asked to determine whether Dr. Sen possessed sympathies that predisposed him to accept the views contained in the documents. This is a very difficult call to make.

Given Dr. Sen's spirited criticism of the Salwa Judum movement and his long history of contact with the Maoists - there were grounds to suggest that he did share Maoist thinking on certain issues.

As you all know Maoist violence closely follows caste, economic and other social divisions, and it is tempting for some people to legitimize it.

I find it important to note that while there are a number of complex social divisions in the region, the Maoists are merely a strain of exploitative politics.

If this leads to a healing of social divisions in the region - that is good but if the aim is use the plight of the oppressed to justify mass murder - that is not acceptable.

In the arrest of Dr. Sen, I sense two possibilities - either an innocent man has been convicted, or a man of peace has strayed from the Gandhian path.

Neither is very appealing to me.

 
At 8:40 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello,

This fellow looks interesting.

http://www.paritoshuttam.com/index.htm

 
At 12:09 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Just as an aside,

I think the J-20 is flying with either the Al-31F- M1 or M3.

these add 10-15 KN to the basic Al-31F

 
At 6:29 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Umm...

So when Sri. Digvijay Singh claimed that Sri. Karkare called him - all the Ram-Rakshaks on the forum called him a liar and said his credibility was zero.

Now when Sri. Digvijay Singh has provided proof of a phone call from Sri. Karkare, - the Ram-Rakshaks say that Sri. Karkare and ATS have zero credibility because they talked to a politician like Sri. Digvijay Singh.

Yeah...

I think it is more correct to say that the Ram-Rakshaks of the forum are trapped in a loop of defensive behaviour in the context of 26/11. They are constantly seeking to radiate blame to others because they believe or want to believe that their beloved organisations actually had something to do with the events on that terrible night. I think this "secret knowledge" they think they possess gives them a sense of power.

I feel this is an opportunity for the Ram-Rakshaks of the forum to do some introspection. Excessive defensiveness is indistinguishable from an admission of guilt. Framing a strategy around this kind of behaviour is the mark of a political hack.

As demonstrated in the case of Dr. Binayak Sen, the law enforcement community will not refrain from directly addressing the rapid growth of extremist thinking in society.

 
At 6:54 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

Another Pakistani politician asassinated. By his own bodyguard.

 
At 9:38 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Another aside,

The J-XX obviously has a very similar layout to the Mig 1.42/1.44 and that is not surprising.

But it seems to borrow from other MFI studies as well. Especially from the former OKB Yakolev's work.

 
At 10:05 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

so the hindutvas on BRF celebrate the murder of Taseeer as enemy of India? CRAMS, genius savant, equates Taseer on the order of that liberal muslim Saddam Hussein of Iraq. Well yes, saddam must of have been liberal because he wasn't very religious until the very end and he smoked and drank. The very definition of a muslim liberal.

Which makes me wonder, other than the total destruction of Packistan what does a hindutva expect that that will result in? The right and proper destruction of the US? The glory that is Russia reigning supreme and unchallenged and providing the white people technology for India's military? The end of all terrorism and the turning of Islamic terrorists into humble but loveable drones into the employ of sage hindutvas who will guide them into a harmless hive of cobblestone smashers working on the roads of the himalayas? But I digress. Packistan must be destroyed then India shall triumph over all. And live happily ever after.

 
At 5:08 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Ralphy,

I don't know if the Ram-Rakshaks necessarily want to enslave the Pakistani Islamists. I am sure if you ask some of them - they will tell you that these Pakistani Muslims are simply lower castes that should be reconverted to their former status.

But if the trends in Gujurat and Kerala are to be believed, reconversion has not implied enslavement. Of course this could change if Pakistan collapses. There will be a desire to punish the Pakistanis for their sins - and yes that could lead to the kinds of things you are talking about but so far we are not seeing things like that.

Hindutva as an ideology is more a progressive nationalism and less of a religious unification platform. So far it has resulted in the melting of caste boundaries. It has opened the door to political alliances that were considered unthinkable thirty years ago.

At present, I think the Ram-Rakshaks see Pakistani Islamic nationalism as a peer competitor to their own brand of nationalism.

I don't want to make too strong a statement about this because the situation is very fluid right now and we need to wait and see how this brand of political thinking evolves.

Oddly enough - if Pakistan fails - the idea of using religion as a unifying principle for society will die with it. The death of Pakistan may have consequences that the Ram-Rakshaks and others of the extreme right wing variety do not expect.

 
At 5:28 AM, Blogger maverick said...

One does not exactly know as yet why Mr. Qadri assassinated Gov. Taseer. Mr. Qadri is claiming religious justification for his act and the usual people are voicing support. And that has predictable consequences for the liberal v/s orthodox debate in Pakistan.

But we don't know if Mr. Qadri is telling the truth. It could be Mr. Qadri is using religion as a cover for the real motives for the crime.

 
At 10:52 AM, Blogger Al Peri said...

"They are constantly seeking to radiate blame to others because they believe or want to believe that their beloved organisations actually had something to do with the events on that terrible night."

Supporting Pakistani theories on 26/11 are you, you rotten bastard -- you really are a third rate asshole, pal.

 
At 10:55 AM, Blogger Al Peri said...

Digvijay singh has not proven shit, pal, but don't let that stop you.

 
At 1:26 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Al Peri,

"Supporting Pakistani theories on 26/11 are you, you rotten bastard -- you really are a third rate asshole, pal."

No.. *read* what I said carefully.

The Ram-Rakshaks on the forum *want* to believe that their beloved organisations are *somehow* involved in 26/11.

The Pakistanis say that organisations like the RSS and affiliates *are* actually responsible for 26/11.

I have no opinion about the involvement of the RSS or its affiliates in 26/11. Merely because the Pakistanis want to believe it or some Ram Rakshaks want to believe it - doesn't make it so.

I feel that aspect of the investigation is underway and it is too early to comment on this.

I simply feel it doesn't help the RSS or its affiliates that the Ram-Rakshaks of the forum act defensively because after a point defensiveness is indistinguishable from actual guilt.

My basic contention is that the Ram-Rakshaks of the forum suffer from a peculiar form of foot-in-mouth-disease.

"Digvijay singh has not proven shit, pal, "

Okay - that makes more sense. Maybe you should ask the Ram-Rakshaks to say that instead of saying "Karkare and ATS have no credibility because they talked to Digvijay Singh".

" but don't let that stop you."

How does it affect me in any way?

My statements **don't** depend on what Sri. Digvijay Singh says.

Only the Ram-Rakshaks and the mood swings depend on that.

Baba-re try to remain a little balanced when you think about things. People who act and talk in an unbalanced way give progressive nationalism a bad name. These people are a liability that cannot and will not be tolerated.

 
At 6:25 AM, Blogger maverick said...

I feel the only reason anyone would want secularism in Pakistan is because its current moral guardians, the Mullahs are in bed with criminals.

There is a lot of abuse of religious authority in Pakistan. Many unscrupulous mullahs have taken to issuing fatwas that support criminal acts. While this act is made out to be a form of political protest against western imposed governments - there is little to distinguish it from purely criminal enterprise on part of the clergy.

If the clergy in Pakistan keep jumping into bed with every criminal and allying with every terrorist - the people of Pakistan will want secularism.

Whether it is a terrorist attack in India, or something in Europe, America or anywhere else even inside Pakistan - the sole purpose of the Islamic leadership in Pakistan appears to be to come up with a way of legitimising it.

I know the radicalisation inside Pakistani society runs high and established Mullahs face pressure from extremist fringe groups.

However continuously sanctioning every act of terrorism as being religiously acceptable is a bad idea. One ends up effectively handing the initiative over to the extremists.

At this point all they have to do is keep escalating the terrorism and the established leadership of the JeI, JuI-F, etc... will have no choice but to support it.

That is political suicide.

If these established groups don't stop supporting murder - the whole religious establishment in Pakistan is going to collapse under a relentless assault by terrorists.

First it is saying killing Christians and Hindus is okay, next its saying killing Ahmediyyas and Shias are kafirs and should be killed also, then they are saying its okay to kill anyone who wears a Pakistani Army uniform and threatens the interests of a Jihadi group, now it has progressed to according sanction to the murder of political officials.

Where is this going to end?

How long will it be before obscure lower echelon Mullahs start issuing actionable fatwas against the lives of senior established leaders of Islamist groups?

Once that happens, the Mullahs themselves will be begging for secularism to be brought into Pakistan.

 
At 7:50 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

Dear Mav:

I think part of the problem is: how do we foster legitimate muslim moderates in a country or indeed an islamic world, gone mad? Increasingly, the moderates are out of the power equation and they want to move to Canada, the US, etc. Moderate muslims aren't going to sway any islamics while living in Canada or the US and indeed they are sometimes used as cover for the islamics in western countries. So what to do? I am afraid that we will enter into an endless struggle against islamic terrorism. I predict in a few years the US will pull out of Afghanistan and dump Pakistan. Again. That country is completely unloveable despite their uses.

 
At 1:06 PM, Blogger sdre said...

Well hello, Real America (TM) spoke today in Arizona...

 
At 7:18 PM, Blogger dilbert said...

Hi SDRE,

Basically, America is suffering from the same disease as Pakistan: the deep infusion of right-wing thuggery, fanaticism and violence into the body politic. The disease is much more advanced in Pakistan's case (in fact, it is terminal); America can still recover, but the similarities are there.

It will be interesting to see what kind of excuses the TBRF (Teabaggers of BRF) make for this latest shooting. Probably blame the Democrats or evil liberals, or say "All these problems would disappear if they would just lower the capital gains tax rate".

 
At 7:38 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Ralphy,

I think the driver of Islamist terror is collaboration between clerics and criminals.

Pakistan's economy is not good and it creating an environment for crime to thrive in. This creates a growing incentive for religious leaders to seek out alliances with criminals. By sanctioning criminal activity, a mullah can ensure a measure of protection from the criminal gang and secure a source of funding for his mosque in trying times.

This alliance once made - cannot be undone. It irreparably compromises a religious establishment. Also once these alliances are formed, they resist any form of economic progress because they survive only in an environment of endemic poverty.

I think we are seeing this process at work in the wave of support for Gov. Taseer's killers. This is what is holding Pakistan back. It is disgusting that people with criminal agendas are allowed to present themselves as spokesmen for Islamic values.

I feel the intelligence agencies in most countries face a dilemma when dealing with this issue. There is a desire to turn the mullah into a government informer and thus keep tabs on criminals. So to that end the toxic social effect of criminals and clerics being in bed is ignored.

This may be fine elsewhere - it is probably not fine in Pakistan. The problem has simply become too severe there - comparable I would say to the infiltration of Sikh religious establishments in Indian Punjab during the 80s.

I feel in India and the US this problem is worsening. The level of criminal infiltration into religious establishments (even non-Muslim ones) is on the rise.

This problem of criminal infiltration needs to be combated directly. And yet one sees no focus on this.

There is no Interpol unit tasked with tracking this even though it is clearly identified that transnational religious groups have ties with organised crime.

Forget that - there has not yet been a single conference on this topic by any law enforcement or intelligence agency I know of.

 
At 6:48 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Between Jinnah's pork and booze parties, and his passion for Shariah - Pakistan is caught in a peculiar desire to express itself in the most extreme terms possible.

Incidentally, lt. Gen. (r) Naseerullah Khan Babar has passed away. The old guard is going away one by one.

One should start looking for newer younger leaders now.

 
At 7:04 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Why this desire to pretend that extremists don't exist in ranks of the self-appointed guardians of Hindu nationalism?

If the Seva Dal, and organisation that Mahatma Gandhi founded could be turned into a political instrument of Congress (I) and infiltrated by people of questionable character - why do people want to believe somehow the so-called Hindu organisations i.e the RSS, VHP, Bajrang Dal, HSS etc... are immune to penetration by criminals?

The Ram Rakshaks on the forum spout all manner of extremist rubbish about how minorities should be treated - and they count themselves as part of the Hindutva movement. How can one ignore that?

For years now we have heard the same Ram-Rakshaks on the forum tell us how every Muslim cleric in the country should be arrested under TADA/PTA because he said something that might be seen as supporting terrorism.

We have been told for over a decade that Left-wing ideologues like Dr. Binayak Sen should be prosecuted to the full extent of the law because they say all manner of things in support of Maoists and other left-wing terrorist groups.

Also, we repeatedly hear from the same Ram-Rakshaks how any number of Christian groups are secretly fomenting violence by newly converted tribals in parts of India. The Ram-Rakshaks feel the GoI is not doing it job by simply arresting these people and shutting down Christian religious activity in the country.

Yet when the Ram-Rakshaks themselves rush to say all sorts of nasty things about minorities and support religious extremists who are under investigation for terrorism - somehow one is supposed to give them a free pass?

We are expected to pretend that the law does not apply to the Ram-Rakshaks?

What goes for the goose (the muslim, christian and left-wing extremists) doesn't work for the gander (the Ram-Rakshaks)?

Why this caste system?

Should not the law be applied equally to all religious groups?

Why should a Hindu extremist who advocates ethnic cleansing of non-Hindu minorities be treated any differently from a Mullah who advocated bombings in a city?

 
At 6:25 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

Be careful Mav, there are a few idiots in that crowd. And some of them may know you.

 
At 5:36 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello Ralphy,

I would not be too surprised if these people know me very well, they probably know where I live and who my family are.

I wouldn't even be surprised if they know exactly how many gray hair I have on my head.

But if they know all those things - then they also know exactly why I am bringing up these uncomfortable topics.

 
At 5:47 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Look folks there is a real problem here.

There are too many people who are speaking in the most extreme ways.

It has always been hard to distinguish between people speak in extreme ways and people who commit extremist acts.

Today in the US we are seeing Sara Palin getting hauled over coals for the actions of a crazy person.

For decades now the GoI has cracked down on religious leaders, politicians and academics because of what extremists associating with them did. Current legal frameworks allow the GoI to do this. Most of these laws were put into place in Advaniji's time - so the Government has more than enough arrows in its quiver.

Also there is a vast amount of data - electronic, humint etc... in the hands of several national intelligence services worldwide that supports the existence of an extremist ideology in the Hindu community.

While we do not see the kinds of organised violence that Islamic extremists routinely indulge in, there is a significant strain of disorganised violence - mass rioting, ethnic cleansing ... that repeatedly manifests in India that can be traced to the involvement of Hindu extremists. When confronted with documentary evidence of this, one typically sees the guilty radiating blame to the Muslims/Christians. The story heard each time around is "They started it! we were acting in self defence". This is the same "Hindu Victimhood" tape that has been playing for the past few decades. It is not clear if anyone in the security community every bought into this or even what street cred this idea has.

There is complete denial of the existence of extremist elements in Hindu society even though there is a vast amount of evidence and documentation to the contrary.

The police and intelligence agencies are routinely dismissed as being stooges of the political party. No attempt is spared to suggest that the media is working for the American evangelicals or China-backed-Maoists. Every attempt is made to discredit people who speak out against this.

This environment is indistinguishable from the behaviour of mosque leaders in Srinagar during the heyday of the Harkat-ul-Mujaheddin.

I really doubt the GoI will stand for it much longer.

The problem is brought into focus by the Ram-Rakshaks of the forum. It is extremely tiresome to hear these people talk down to the professionals on matters of national security.

Incoherent rantings do not constitute national security discourse and the Ram-Rakshaks completely ignore all decorum and communication norms.

Could someone please tell me what the difference between the HuM-friendly Mullah ranting on the virtues of Jihad and one the Ram-Rakshaks is?

 
At 7:50 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Turkey-Pakistan ties- India's Loss is China's gain

 
At 8:57 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

Nobody has explained to me yet how Pakistan, who can't even have loyal bodyguards for its politicians, will maintain a strategic pipeline through its country side. Yes, bribes works wonders but even that has its limits.

 
At 2:17 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

hello from Bangalore, folks,

it is really pleasant here ... there has been depressing news about the temple stampede but India's sensational one run win is top of the news.

was in Mumbai for a couple of days. DAE top brass was there. heard some good news on the FBR front. making 4 copies of the PFBR has been sanctioned and work is underway. R&D on metal fuels is also continuing.

On to Delhi next. DFC, will call you.

 
At 5:11 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Actually Ralphy, I think what you are suggesting has been brought up by Islamists in Pakistan.

Their contention is that Islam is the moral foundation of society in Pakistan. If one degrades Islam in any way, then all social interactions become unpredictable as people no longer have a moral compass to rely on. I feel this is why they all hot and winded about blasphemy.

My response to this is a simple question:

Everyone in Pakistan knows of the collaboration between criminals and religious leaders in Pakistan.

How is it that criminal infiltration of the clergy does nothing to damage Islam, the foundation of the fortress, but somehow a single poor non-Muslim woman saying something negative about the prophet completely wipes out the foundation of Pakistani society?

It seems to me that Islam in Pakistan has more in common with an American college frat house where any excuse is good enough to gang up and beat the crap out of some weak and the defenceless person.

Dear Mani,

have fun in India.

 
At 5:13 AM, Blogger maverick said...

DFC,

a very well written piece.

 
At 5:25 AM, Blogger maverick said...

It seems there has been an incident in Lahore with an Air Blue flight to Dubai.

It looks like a dry run gone run.

Now we wait to see if NADRA has records.

If this is a dry run - there will be no records a la kasab.

 
At 6:07 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

hmmm ... strange incident ... now air force of suicide bombers? Will this JDAM have a guidance system composed of flip flops?

 
At 5:46 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Mani,

Yes - the thought occurred to me. The landing gear is under the cockpit in most airliners. I don't know what cables run proximate to that, but I imagine it would not be too difficult to interfere with the functioning of the airplane once one is inside it.

Apparently, this kind of stuff is normal. I think there was a case in the US recently where someone fell from the sky from a domestic flight.

I recall incidents at a Japanese airport some years ago - though the details escape me at this point.

 
At 6:24 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

In Hawaii, airplane flights from certain areas such as Guam are stopped at a safe spot near the end of the runway immediately upon arrival. the landing gear and wheel wells are searched. They look for snakes and other vermin. And they find them.

 
At 9:57 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Wikipedia says that as long as the a/c doesn't climb above 35000 ft- the wheel well stowaway can do fine.

The airplane is most vulnerable when taking off/landing.

 
At 10:53 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Remorse is a powerful emotion.

When someone stands by a confession in the presence of a magistrate - there is no way to undo things.

 
At 5:05 AM, Blogger maverick said...

From the evidence now available, it appears that members of a Hindu extremist group carried out a series of terrorist attacks on Muslims.

The media is suggesting that the agenda behind the attacks was to hold the prospect of a kristanacht over the Muslims of India and to ensure that they reduce perceived support to Islamist extremist groups like SIMI.

It may be recalled that a number of Muslims in India felt a strange sense of pride after the Black Friday Blasts in Bombay 1993. The most common explanation given for this was that after the destruction of Babri Masjid and the horrible riots afterwards, some Muslims felt they were defenceless. The bombing restored their notions of having a form of defence.

The Hindu extremist group appears to be feeding off similar sentiments in the Hindu population. A series of unsolved ISI sponsorred terrorist attacks in major Indian cities has exacerbated fears of "living under a Muslim terror" in Hindus. The Hindu extremist groups are using this to launch their own terrorist agenda, these people are hoping to get the same rise and sense of support out of frightened Hindus today that Tiger Memon got from some frightened Muslims in Bombay after 1993.

Traditionally, the use of RDX and ANFO has been the signature of Islamist groups and that is why they were first suspected of involvement.

It appears that the Hindu extremist organisation responsible for these terrorist attacks copied some fraction of these "signatures" and thus was able to mask its involvement for a very long time.

Successfully fusing RDX and ANFO devices is a non-trivial affair. The skill set to make such devices first leaked from the Pakistani military to its Jihadi friends in Pakistan.

Now that knowledge appears to have transferred itself into the hands of Hindu extremist groups.

There are two open possibilities here -

1) Detailed knowledge of defused Jihadi devices has leaked from the Indian side to these Hindu extremists.

2) These extremists have been in contact with a foreign power and obtained this knowledge in exchange for payment or offers of support.

contd.

 
At 5:10 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Dr. Mohan Bhagwat made a significant statement today.

People who feel the compulsive need to support extremist activities, whether monetarily, intellectually etc... should read the statement carefully and take heed.

Violent extremism has no place in the process of social reform.

Pakistan is a disaster.

If India is to avoid falling into that hole - we need to keep extremist thinking to a minimum.

 
At 5:13 AM, Blogger maverick said...

dear friends

fwiw, I am seriously wondering if I should have more Marie biscuits with my tea.

 
At 7:31 AM, Blogger maverick said...

I am sorry - the previous post should read

"The media is suggesting that the agenda behind the attacks was to hold the prospect of a kristalnacht over the Muslims of India and to ensure that they reduce perceived support to Islamist extremist groups like SIMI.

My apologies for the spelling mistake.

 
At 8:46 AM, Blogger maverick said...

It is all good and fine to agitate for someone to be released.

However, until the investigation completes, I don't know how it is possible for anyone to be released.

One can write all the editorials one wants but nothing is going to happen until there is greater clarity in the information available.

Currently US investigators have stuck to their claim that the HUJI and LeT under Arif Qasmani's direction are responsible for these events.

Presently the confessions of certain Hindu extremists point to the involvement of Abhinav Bharat in these events.

The matter has to be sorted out.

Until such time as it is all sorted out - it doesn't seem prudent to release anyone from custody.

 
At 5:36 AM, Blogger maverick said...

The Pakistanis kept bringing up the involvement of Hindu extremists in the Samjhauta Express bombings during the ATM meetings.

At that time, it was generally believed that this was an attempt to deflect an intrusive inquiry of Pakistan based Jihadi groups.

Now did Pakistan actually know something when they pointed the finger at the Hindu extremists?

 
At 9:04 AM, Blogger maverick said...

http://tinyurl.com/unodcrep

UNODC report.

Salient features:

Global Cocaine production is ~ 1000 mt. Consumption is about half that.

Asia consumes about 14 mt/yr.

India is probably around 4-5 mt/yr based on the 5% interception estimate.

That is beginning to compare to the numbers that were coming out of Calcutta in 1920s period where the estimate of cocaine consumption was 6 mt/yr.

That is a serious problem.

 
At 12:55 PM, Blogger maverick said...

WRT the CPI(ML) editorial.

I disagree with the overarching conclusions in the Indian context. This stuff may be true elsewhere but I think if the investigation of terror was compromised by majoritarian communal prejudice - then the Aseemanand confession would never have seen the light of day.

The possibility of bias in terror investigations always exists.

But the very fact that the Aseemanand case has moved forward is a sign of the extensive review that investigations in India are subject to.

I am all for a full investigation that clears out any miscarriage of justice but until the investigation completely I don't see the point in releasing anyone from custody.

There appear to be conflicting theories of the crime and there is evidence pointing to the involvement of Hindu extremist groups. To my mind, this is a valid reason to vigorously pursue all leads in this matter. However I think there is no point in getting ahead of ourselves, it may be best to let the investigations continue to their logical conclusions.

A lot is being said in right wing media about the linkage between the 2G scam and the Assemanand confession. I would not be surprised by a political angle to this, but the evidence of extremist activity is there.

The judicial process and the investigation can't be bothered about the political side of things too much. Ultimately the facts have to speak for themselves.

Rushing this investigation is a bad idea. It is best if it takes time.

Clearly this investigation has come as a shock to most Indians, it is best if one does not make things worse by insisting that the investigation be made to fit some hack's idea of a news cycle.

 
At 9:54 PM, Blogger Anand K said...

Look! Look! I have a Conjpirajy Theory of my own! Given the Dhoti Shiver and "Woe is me!" and "MMS sellout" and "Ides of March" season in the DF, please indulge moi....

The first phase of the Larger Hindutva Movement was the Ram Janmabhoomi Action ('89-'92) right? This had a number of dry runs in small scale Shobha Yatras and Chetna Yatras which sought (usually successfully) to wrest back Hindu shrines and temple properties which had been appropriated by syncretism/Government/private owners of other faiths. These minor movements in key states were instrumental in helping them create a niche for themselves in the late 70s-80s.
However, it was the Ram Janmabhoomi issue that gave the BJP this image of being THE representative voice of mainstream Hindus. Whatever they may say, it was this action that took the wind out of Mandal's sails and catapulted the BJP from it's perennial No. 3/No. 4 slot and put it in par with the INC. The lily white virgins may claim the 400 year old "structure" collapsed on it's own but everyone knows India's biggest open secret, eh?

Coming to the CT part..... are we are looking at the second stage here? I mean, with Aseemanand/Indiresh Kumar types as the thin edge of the wedge? You know, the agent provocateur thing.... cycles of violence... ONLY the registered "representative of Hindus" (TM) seem to have the capacity to provide legal/extra-legal protection for Hindus..... vortex of fear carries the knickerwaalahs to the gaddi and constitutional amendments.

Now the Pakis sure send terrorists across the borders and recruit some addle headed Indian Muslims and all..... but one of the largest socio-political organizations in India seeking to wreck pretty much the same damage on our communal fabric for mere political gains is way more dangerous, innit?

PS: On a not too unrelated note, any public organization which seeks to engage in criminal/treasonous activity first gets those members earmarked for such ops out of their regular rolls. They never appear in party offices (at least in daylight), public rallies and public meetings, never figure in payrolls/lists/elections and access to them is restricted to a handful of core upper echelon leaders of the respectable organization. I for one ain't so sure of the repeated claims of party spokespersons ("he's not one of us anymore") every time the cops nail some of these criminals.

 
At 6:31 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello AnandK,

Criminal infiltration of this kind of movement always a clear and present danger.

Temple authorities in India aren't exactly renowned for their integrity. When you put money into the donation box, you really have no idea what happens to it.

There is a reason why people in certain parts of the country were garlanding the priests and idols with chappals. It was clear to everyone that the temples were filled with corruption.

After watching every known criminal organisation in my locality put up a Ganesh pandal each year, I feel it was no great loss if elements of the Hindu right infiltrated temple authorities. At least the money was going into a political party campaign instead of the coffers of a don in Dubai.

When the BJP first launched its Ayodhya agitation, I was worried about the intensity of the passions it ignited. Some of the people this movement attracted were clearly mentally unbalanced. I recall the media reports with some of the Mahants and fake Sanyasis, and these people made my skin crawl.

After the demolition, everyone I spoke to reported that there were organised riots across the country along the path taken by the returning Kar Sevaks. It was never clear who precisely organised this violence but there was complete agreement on the fact that it was organised. This made me very uneasy.

When the BJP took power in 1997, I heard stories of a certain group of people who went around photocopying documents in the PMO. And after that, in the past decade one has witnessed a lot of the Hindu right-wing people talking down to others on matters of national security.

They seemed to have a great prescience when it came to dire predictions national security mechanisms.

If any part of this being "ahead of the curve" was due to the fact that they were deliberately engineering acts of terrorism, then that would be extremely bad.

The investigation into this has just begun. It will take time and there may be more shocks and surprises along the way.

 
At 3:06 PM, Blogger maverick said...

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/23/world/23clarridge.html

dudes...

"Mr. Clarridge has sought to discredit Ahmed Wali Karzai, the Kandahar power broker who has long been on the C.I.A. payroll, and planned to set spies on his half brother, the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, in hopes of collecting beard trimmings or other DNA samples that might prove Mr. Clarridge’s suspicions that the Afghan leader was a heroin addict, associates say. "

"Now, more than two decades after Mr. Clarridge was forced to resign from the intelligence agency, he tries to run his group of spies as a C.I.A. in miniature. Working from his house in a San Diego suburb, he uses e-mail to stay in contact with his “agents” — their code names include Willi and Waco — in Afghanistan and Pakistan, writing up intelligence summaries based on their reports, according to associates. "

 
At 7:08 AM, Blogger maverick said...

With regards to the incident of private firing by Raymond David.

Ralphy - is this part of the same chain of events as the outing of the station chief?

Please recall my concerns after the outing incident.

Right now some questions spring to mind.

Normally diplomatic staff in Islamabad are subject to surveillance by a single motorcycle borne ISI shadow.

The shadow is supposed to monitor the targets' whereabouts at all time and protect them if necessary. It is not uncommon for the shadow and the diplomatic personnel to form an unspoken, unwritten bond or have a very cordial relationship.

Where was the shadow when this incident happened?

The appearance of a pair of people on a motorbike in close proximity to your vehicle in Pakistan is enough to make anyone's skin crawl. This two-man motorbike borne kill teams are an ISI signature.

I still feel that the ISI does not like the use of drones to target people it finds potentially useful in Afghanistan. To the extent the US wants to use the drones to wage a campaign against ISI interests, the ISI will offer extreme resistance.

If this is what it looks like - an ISI sponsored hit on a consular official - then that is a major escalation.

I wish to formulate my question more clearly now - are the ISI and the CIA about to have a parting of ways?

 
At 7:11 AM, Blogger maverick said...

I am assuming the third man killed in the Mozang area during the rush to leave was a civilian.

Unless David killed his shadow - which imo would be really bad.

 
At 7:11 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

Mav;

You are insisting that ISI is completely monolithic in operation just as the CIA is monolithic except we'll disregard private security services offered by retired agents running his own network in the CIA's own theater of operations in Afghanistan? And we certainly know that no mullahs could ever penetrate ISI security functions either?

 
At 1:42 PM, Blogger maverick said...

Dear Ralphy,

Even if we assume there is a pro and anti-US faction within the ISI, going after a consular official is big step up.

If they went after a journalist or a retired person, I would not be less concerned.

 
At 5:15 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Nook dhagaa on DF continues to be entertaining ... some guy was painting Sanku into a corner so he called the big dog IsharaMaster who clamped down on the discussion with a sledgehammer ... LOL ... why are they so nervous that someone will deflate all the hot air?

 
At 6:03 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

I look with some amusement and indeed a lot of trepedation of US advice to Egypt. When the Islamists take over and start dynamiting their historical monuments I wonder what my government will say then?

 
At 12:34 PM, Blogger GinC said...

Mani, Haven't looked at DF for a long time so thanks ..
(I thought nothing can top their "sex worker" gem in US thread - and then commenting the way they did on that episode in this blog ...but nuke-dhaga is just too funny )

Meanwhile since you have been quiet .. allow me to summarize all the nuke-dhaga there:

गन्दी गालियाँ दे, अथिति और मित्र को.
पंक (mud) में घसीटते सुजनो के चरित्र को.

सिफर के बराबर, न्यूक्लिअर ज्ञान है.
ए क्यू खान से भी ज्यादा अभिमान है.

सहज बुधि, तर्क में, पीछे हे सर्व से,
कहते हे गर्व से, आगे हे curve से.

(Rough English Translation:
"Abuse guests and friends...
Drag in mud - character of good people .
Knowledge of nuclear physics = Zero.
Ego and bombast > AQ Khan's
While last in logic, and common sense..
say with pride : "We are ahead of the curve")

 
At 4:27 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

wah, wah, GinC-ji ... kyaa baat hai ... allow me:


Aagae kae kavi Bhushan rahae
Ab kae hain Shri GinC
Peearff wasiyon ki baat alag
karte hain group think

 
At 5:53 PM, Blogger sv said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 7:34 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

For those who may be interested:

http://indico.tifr.res.in/MaKaC/conferenceDisplay.py?confId=1114

MWWOW was supportive as always. SB is also positive. The talk by Mohankrishnan was a good update on the status of DAE projects. There was a lively discussion at the end of the day.

 
At 2:50 PM, Blogger GinC said...

Mani - Thanks. Thanks for the TIFR link too. Quite interesting.

Took a peek at DF.. sorry that I did.. US/India thread has morphed into vulgar gali galoch by likes of Philip... seems like almost all the decent folks there are gone.

 
At 5:20 PM, Blogger dilbert said...

"US/India thread has morphed into vulgar gali galoch by likes of Philip... "

Philip is a blustering gasbag, a deluded loon ... sort of the Glen Beck of BRF.

I sometimes chuckle to think of what would happen if the GoI selected a US plane (F16 / F18) as the winner of the MMRCA contest. Philip's head would explode, Sanku-bunny's head would explode, various and sundry mini-gasbags would have public freakouts, CRamS would launch a tirade on the treason of MMS, the Royal Astrologer would post a bunch of one-liner hints and ishaaras about the Great Game.

Lots of entertainment in store for us.

 
At 5:41 PM, Blogger dilbert said...

The nuke dhaaga is coming to life again, it seems.

Earlier, in response to the whining in the press of some SID (Shivering Indian Dhoti) types worrying about Pak's super-mard nukes (and how much better they were than India's miserable SDRE weapons), KS (yes, that KS) had publicly stated that India's nuclear deterrent is fine, better than Pak's, and capable of taking care of any eventuality.

Well, of course the irony of the situation was highly amusing (JEM posted a brilliant one-word post "Ahem") and Amit and Somnath were enjoying the delicious irony of KS demolishing the whiners. Remember, it was KS who the jumping bunnies thought provided the basis for them to denounce India's PM, nuclear scientists and security chiefs as traitors/sellouts/cowards. And now it was KS saying, in effect, that these SIDs were a bunch of deluded arseholes!! Arre baap re, how to explain this?

You would think these dorks would have enough smarts to just STFU and let the awkward moment blow over, but no! Sanku and his gang of jumping-bunny chelas are right back in the thick of things, proving how clueless they are.

One genius chatterjee posts "We don't have a nuclear deterrent. If we did, we wouldn't put up with all these terrorist attacks and not respond. We are a nation of chutiyas onlee". Hmmm...isn't it interesting how individual chutiyas always project their own chutiyapanti on the whole of India!

 
At 10:15 PM, Blogger sdre said...

So, the cbappal thrower is now certifying India's nuke program? The bunnies appear to be completely irony-challenged...

 
At 10:34 PM, Blogger sdre said...

Anyone following the Hindu Rate of Growth thread? The Idiot Savant first tries personal attack doubting somnath's allegiance to his "birth-faith" and follows up with a swipe at Somanth's chosen profession. Then he leaves in huff saying he cannot take part in the debate as long as offensive terms like HRG is used :-)

Now that others have pitched n with actually useful information, Idiot Savant is nowhere to be seen.

Ironic that folks who believe Hindu == India fly off the handle when hearing terms like HRG...

 
At 8:18 AM, Blogger GinC said...

Sdre, Dilbert ..
Incredible.

Doesn't chota banerji (and few other chattrejis) lurk around here? If so can they show some leadership so that DF is not totally fall to deaf-and-dumb level.

There are lot of Indian Americans here in US who may become victim if clowns like CramS, Philip who keep expressing their hate of Kafirs in their crude language.

 
At 8:29 AM, Blogger GinC said...

Sdre - what/where is "Hindu Rate of Growth thread".. if this is under burqa (where only members can go) can you post notable part?..

 
At 8:48 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Brodie's views sat well with an India that was poor.

An India that thinks it is rich will be drawn towards Kahn's perspectives on these affairs.

So I ask you, dear friends, can one model some of this as a Kolmogorov problem?

 
At 12:25 PM, Blogger sdre said...

GinC:

It started in the "uture Strategic Scenario" thread in the hot air forum (p47 onward). Then Idiot Savant/Gas Giant opened a dedicated thread "Disputes in the Economic History of India" in the tech/econ forum. But IS/GG appears to be conspicuously absent in that thread now...

 
At 2:01 PM, Blogger sdre said...

Sad news about KS passing. BTW check out Ishaara Master blowing his own trumpet in KS obit thread...

 
At 2:39 PM, Blogger maverick said...

The passing of Sri Subramaniam is very sad.

It is very easy to start discussing the size of a nuclear arsenal purely in terms of the number of targets one wants to hit.

I feel this is a waste of time because it doesn't take into account the effect of countermeasures.

As long as the weapons only sit on the ground, counter-measures don't matter, but if one has to actually launch anything, then it is a real issue.

If one models the number of weapons as prey and the counter-measures as predators, then a Kolmogorov problem can be framed around the premise that each weapon has a natural effectiveness that is independent of the effectiveness of the counter-measure.

I am not claiming that this is a well posed problem, but I feel it brings into focus the technical aspect.

 
At 4:14 PM, Blogger dilbert said...

"BTW check out Ishaara Master blowing his own trumpet in KS obit thread"

K Subrahmanyam was a great son of India, but the Energizer Bunnies were all actively dissing him during the two big recent hangamas on the forum: the IUCNA (Nuke Deal) hangama and "the other KS" hangama (i.e. the POK2 fizzle theory). In both cases, Subrahmanyam sided with India's nuke "establishment" and the GoI. He was bashed on BRF for being senile, soft, unpatriotic etc. And the IsharaMaster, the Hon'ble Webmaster etc. were the ones leading the charge against him. Of course the minor Energizer Bunnies were jumping up and down and bashing him too, but it was IsharaMaster and WebMaster playing the Pied Piper to these rats.

IOW KS was unfairly dissed and attacked by the same people now singing his praises!

 
At 7:09 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

There is a move towards a mix of nuclear counter-value and conventional counter-force capabilities (PGS like).

Kalam in a recent speech talked about putting "strategic weapons in place" which included hypersonic conventional strike capabilities.

The Russians have developed an equivalent to the X-37B, let's see if they flight test it soon.

when I hear about the Pukes increasing the number of nuke weapons at their disposal, I am not that worried, because at the end of the day maintaining a relatively large arsenal of nukes becomes a major financial and logistical headache that a state with Limited resources (with a big L) can ill afford despite money being sent from other states.


Coming back to the issue of countermeasures and nukes, nuke fighting can no longer adopt a compartmentalized approach wherein we rely solely on on board countermeasures and MARVs to get weapons on target.

Nuclear deterrence now has a significant conventional PGM component to it in order to take down strategic air defences such as triple digit SAMs which incidentally are protected by modern counter PGM optimized SPAAGMS such as the Pantsyr.

On the shields side i.e missile defence it is no hidden secret that the temptation to lace 'hit to kill' capability with a nuclear warhead is always there...

in fact the only real way to guarantee the 99.9999 percent figures that MD advocates bandy out is to mount nuke warheads on ABM interceptors.

 
At 7:18 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

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At 8:09 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

The Americans and Russians are drawing down essentially for financial reasons.

DOE for instance needs money for both new nuke research as well as renewable energy work.

JASON is all nice and dandy but paisa paisa hota hai.


The russkis are keeping tactical nukes because at the moment those are cheaper than large mechanized and air armies protecting vast swathes of chronically underpopulated Siberian territory from the Chinese, who by the way maintain their best equipped forces not in Chengdu MR but the north east area i.e Shenyang MR.

Also any tactical strikes unleashed in that region run the risk of minimal civilian russki casualties.

Anyway as the Russian transformation gathers pace I expect them to draw down their tactical nuke capability as well.

 
At 9:17 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

DFC, question for you:


>>>>> JASON is all nice and dandy but paisa paisa hota hai.


what is JASON an acronym for? I asked someone who should know and he said: "Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov" ... I couldn't tell if he was kidding or not ... :)

 
At 10:04 PM, Blogger GinC said...

>>>"Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov" ... I couldn't tell if he was kidding or not ... :)

Mani - Apart from that, another one is "Junior Achiever, Somewhat Older Now" :)...
(Actually it is character from Yunani mythology)

 
At 10:32 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 10:41 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

JASON isn't an acronymn at all.

It's another instance of the US fascination for greek mythos ( apart from norse and native american).

So it's very much the Jason of the golden fleece.

The july .. etc is a sort of backronymn since program officers usually met in the second half of the year but of course not really valid.

 
At 5:49 AM, Blogger maverick said...

While ABMs remain a challenging affair, the accuracy of SAMs and AAMs and the associated radar systems has increased dramatically.

In the US-USSR missile era, it was mostly the "natural" effectiveness of the launch platforms that determined the numbers to be fielded. Anti-ballistic missile systems were not a major factor.

It may be recalled that that the shift towards missiles was created by the realization that the opposing air forces could easily intercept the long-range bombers.

As a purely academic exercise I wonder if one can frame all this concisely into a predator-prey model.

For the purpose of the exercise/toy-model we can assume that pre-emption falls under the banner of providing deterrence. That should sidestep any discussion on how one can talk about use of weapons outside of established norms.

 
At 6:08 AM, Blogger maverick said...

If the American numbers are to be believed - the costs associated with a large arsenal are predominantly deployment costs. These costs are an order of magnitude more than R&D costs.

Political arguments can only be used to justify costs up to a point.

The critical thing here is the number of nuclear weapons. That number dictates the deployment costs.

In the early days when counter-measures were not a real problem - that number could be decided purely in terms of the effectiveness of a single weapon.

As counter-measures become more pronounced the older static argument has to be abandoned in favour of something more flexible - more dynamic.

If this calculation cannot be performed for a single target - then there is some hope that it can be extended to systems with more than one target. Otherwise this is all pointless.

 
At 11:41 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

In Bangalore for Aero India. Anybody else from here visiting the show?

 
At 5:20 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

You guys don't think much of Egypt, eh?

 
At 5:47 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Fallout from the Mozang Chungi incident appears to be escalating.

There is an uptick in violence targeting Police and Central Investigation Agency officials in Karachi, and Gujranwala.

 
At 5:53 AM, Blogger maverick said...

http://www.npr.org/2011/02/09/133602830/in-pakistan-jailed-americans-case-stokes-fury

"That sentiment was manifested at a demonstration last weekend called in solidarity with Muslims in Indian-controlled Kashmir. Highly charged speakers used the occasion to condemn Davis and give advice for the Pakistani police holding him.

"Just give him electric shocks, he will confess everything," said Amir Hamza, a leader of the banned Jamaat-ud-Dawa, a group that organized the demonstration. "He will confess to bombings in Peshawar. He will confess to bombings in Lahore. He will confess that all terrorism is being committed by America.

"If he does not confess, hand him over to us. We will make him confess.""


The anti-US fury is being stoked by the ISI. The implicit threat in LeT Amir's language is that now that the ISI has Raymond Davis in its custody - they can make him confess to anything!

 
At 5:11 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Gentlemen,

Just back from the airshow.

for those of you who may be interested:

Tejas empty weight - 6560 Kg.

Kaveri wet thrust achieved at Bangalore (3000 feet) - 72KN. tests in Russia went well. Dry thrust of 52 KN was achieved as well. Integration with Tejas demo by 2013.

Cobham 754 buddy buddy has been in use with the MKI for sometime now.

I did a fair bit of scouring ( visited every stall really) which shall hopefully get translated into some stories and blog entries with pics.

Oh and there are AF and Navy Tejas Mk 2 models on display.

 
At 6:02 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Err.. Ralphy.

What is Hamid Gul talking about?

 
At 8:53 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

In regards to what? He says a lot of things.

 
At 9:11 AM, Blogger dilbert said...

Hi DFC,

Thanks for your remarks on the airshow. Any comments on the flying displays of the MMRCA contestants?

I'm following this contest with great interest. Of course, the usual suspects on the forum are whining and moaning that the American contestants should not even be considered, should be rejected out of hand etc., but to me the interesting thing is that GoI/IAF are not doing this (rejecting out of hand).

My own personal preference would be either Eurofighter or Rafale, but with the right pre-conditions satisfied I think the F18 would be a perfectly satisfactory choice.To me, the fact that an American aircraft is still in the competition (with IMO a reasonable chance of winning it) is eloquent testimony to the way the relationship between the two countries has so radically and drastically changed since Pokhran-2. For this, credit goes to three successive US administrations (Clinton, Bush, Obama) and two successive Indian govts (ABV and MMS). IMO Bush and MMS deserve special credit.

 
At 9:25 AM, Blogger dilbert said...

At the risk of boring everybody with another mention of the IUCNA (Indo-US civilian nuclear agreement), I feel compelled to mention that we are, in fact, seeing played out live before our eyes the wisdom of the philosophy of the deal. During the heat of the debate on the forum (when insults were flying around and there was much weping and gnashing of teeth by the Energizer Bunnies), a few (very few; Mani_T was one of them and Enqyoob was another) people tried to point out that the IUCNA was not basically about nuclear power plants or weapon testing etc, it was a way to finesse all the alphabet soup of treaties / sanctions etc and bring India back in out of the cold and legitimize its nuclear weapon status in the eyes of the world, without changing the letter of the law (NPT-wise). That goal was achieved. K.Subrahmaniyam said so explicitly in his interview, and obviously all the stakeholders (in India and other countries) understood this.

 
At 9:56 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Hi Dilbert,

EF and Raf are indeed ahead with the former possessing the edge. The kind of industrial partnership being offered by Oiropeans seems lucrative ..

Also you get a sense of who's doing well in the offset game by talking to SMEs ...

The Yamrikhans are now looking at the AMCA project where they think they have the best technologies to offer.

As far as your observation about how India and the US are getting increasingly close ... I'll definitely agree with that.

Cliched as it sounds, at the end of the day, both India and the US are capitalist democracies. the yanks like working through the media, they like to firm up arrangements "officially" and with "legalese" -

Yamrikhan weapons also have very high mission capable rates. But up front/ capital acquisition costs are definitely an issue ...

As India matures as a capitalist democracy I expect to see a lot more B2B and here India and the US are indeed "natural allies" given their milieus.

As the defense sector opens up and Indian pvt companies become majors America will probably become the partner of choice ..

 
At 10:23 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Oh and one more thing,

I saw a slow motion video of a brahmos test from ship to shore where it hit a target on an island with pin point accuracy.

 
At 11:57 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Ralphy,

He is saying that if the government in I'bad backs down on the Davis issue, former army officers will step in to do the right thing.

What on earth is that all about?

 
At 1:02 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

Hi Mav:

He doesn't ubderstand the situation. Right now there is very little contact between the US gov and the Pak gov due to the Davis situation.

OTOH the US is still very close with the Pak army. They're still getting the juice. Remember when Bill Clinton sent about 70 cruise missiles across Pakistan to bomb bin Ladin's hideout? he sent his chief of Military chief staff Gen. Shelton to Pakistan to tell the Pak army what was going to happen. The General got into his Gulfstream flew to I-bad and called a meeting to order with the Pak army, told them what was happening and then left with Pak army providing security for his exit. Please note there was no diplo contact involved that I know of.

 
At 11:24 PM, Blogger sdre said...

>>>
The General got into his Gulfstream flew to I-bad and called a meeting to order with the Pak army, told them what was happening and then left with Pak army providing security for his exit. Please note there was no diplo contact involved that I know of.
>>>

And the pakis promptly warned Bin Laden that tomahawks were on the way..

 
At 11:37 PM, Blogger sdre said...

Dilbert:

It is an article of faith among bunnies that MMS deserves no credit for economic reform. In BRF mythology, only PVNR and the BJP admin deserves credit for opening up India's economy, not MMS, and certainly not UPA. According to bunnies, PVNR ordered economic reform to happen, and the peon MMS merely rubber-stamped PVNR's edict.

So, I predict that IUCNA will be generally judged as a success* in five years, and the bunnies will turn around and claim MMS had nothing to do with it...

* A subtle hint: if NPAs and Pakis are whining about the deal, it can't be bad for India.

 
At 1:56 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 2:00 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

Yeah sure, more technology for India. You'll make everybody proud with your progress.

 
At 5:57 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 9:21 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

Dilbert,

There was some discussion of "entities list" and export control at the TIFR meeting. The general view was that items earlier prohibited can now be imported, albeit, after much paperwork. The scientific community in India is clearly happy ... making BRunnies happy is impossible.

 
At 10:13 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

The general view was that items earlier prohibited can now be imported, albeit, after much paperwork. The scientific community in India is clearly happy ... making BRunnies happy is impossible.

No. Not really.

There has been no change as far as the DAE is concerned.

even earlier supply to the DAE would have been granted case by case clearance for all items on the Commerce Control List.

And DAE entities like BARC. IGCAR etc had "presumption of approval" for all EAR 99 items.

This remains unchanged.

The Yamrikhans are holding out on DAE till such time we either amend the liability law or do an inter-governmental agreement on the issue.

 
At 10:15 AM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Okay here's a brief post from Aero India 2011 :)

Indian JSOW?

 
At 11:13 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 11:18 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

DFC,

>>>> There has been no change as far as the DAE is concerned.

How do you mean no change? I am reporting what BARC folks themselves said.

I suppose you mean that the procedure is the same, when you say this:

>>>>> even earlier supply to the DAE would have been granted case by case clearance for all items on the Commerce Control List.

This is where the difference lies ... earlier, the export would have been denied and now it is not.

I was quite skeptical as well so I asked pointedly ... the item in question was radiation-hardened electronics ... I was assured that there would be no problem in exporting it.

Before the deal I would not have imagined such an export. To give you an idea, export of such items even to the UK involve serious paperwork and periodic inspections.

 
At 12:03 PM, Blogger ducking for cover said...

Well if they have relaxed things on the implementation side ... then good.

But they need to move DAE out of the BIS entity list altogether.

 
At 7:28 PM, Blogger srikumar said...

>>>
There has been no change as far as the DAE is concerned.

even earlier supply to the DAE would have been granted case by case clearance for all items on the Commerce Control List.

And DAE entities like BARC. IGCAR etc had "presumption of approval" for all EAR 99 items.

This remains unchanged.
>>>

The 'consideration on a case-by-case basis with presumption of approval' was post India-US deal, was it not? What has changed very recently is that the 'entity list' now consists of ONLY DAE entities such as BARC, IGCAR, un-safeguarded reactors, and so on (with case-by-case consideration and presumption of approval). Everything else is exempted.

Is it realistic to expect a blanket exemption to DAE, given the mutually-agreed separation of military and civilian nuclear efforts?

 
At 8:36 PM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

>>>>>>>> Is it realistic to expect a blanket exemption to DAE, given the mutually-agreed separation of military and civilian nuclear efforts?

Things are moving slowly but surely in that direction ... DAE labs (CAT, BARC) are helping DOE labs in the US. This whole thing will take time. The good news is that there are no obvious show-stoppers.

 
At 9:34 PM, Blogger dilbert said...

The Pakis are claiming that Raymond Davis never had diplomatic immunity. The Americans say he does.

If the Pakis are right, it's hard for me to see how they can let Davis go in the current state of Islamic hysteria prevailing in Pakistan. At the same time, if they keep him, I don't see what the Americans can do, really.

 
At 3:50 AM, Blogger Mani_Tripathi said...

btw, Srikumar-ji, that is a very suggestive handle when speaking of DAE issues. Coincidence?

 
At 4:36 AM, Blogger Devapriya said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 4:37 AM, Blogger Devapriya said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 6:08 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Ralphy,

If the channels of communication between the civilian leadership in the US and the civilian leadership in Islamabad are weakened, and the military-to-military ties remain unaffected, then we are going to see the Pakistan Army's political fortunes rise.

This opens space for people like Gen. Gul to operate in.

Broadly speaking there are two groups within the Pakistan national security community - the "Good Boy" faction and the "Bad Boy" faction.

The only difference between these groups is the manner in which they propose to seek leverage. For example the Good Boy faction gains leverage by playing along with US policy and the Bad Boy faction says leverage can be obtained by obstructing US policy in the region.

The Bad Boy faction is dominated by Zia era people like Gen. Hamid Gul, these people feel betrayed by the way the US left the Pakistanis holding the bag in 1989 and they have huge conflict economic interests in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region.

Right now the US is able to maintain the Good Boy faction in power by putting the squeeze to the Bad Boy faction's assets in the Af-Pak region. Maintaining pressure on people like HeI, "Bad Taliban" etc... ensures that the Bad Boy faction is short of money and can't buy its way into the Aiwan-e-Sadr.

The Good Boy faction can't arrange to have Davis released. Doing so would damage its image as a protector of Pakistan's interests. The Bad Boy faction is going to town saying/doing everything possible to ensure that the political costs of releasing Davis will be very high. They are basically turning this into another Lal Masjid saga. The most disturbing stuff is coming from LeT mouthpieces, I fear it suggests that after the US response to the 26/11 attacks, the LeT is flirting with the Bad Boy faction.

I am uneasy with the tone of General Gul's comments.

I would like to know very much what exactly he meant by that even if it is a misconception/
misreading of the situation.

I suspect there is a desire on part of the Bad Boy faction to use the Davis incident as a wedge to unseat the Good Boy faction's grip on power.

 
At 6:11 AM, Blogger maverick said...

And one more thing, Ralphy,

The Bad Boy faction's political mainstay appears to the Man of Steel and his party.

Lahore is their area. I doubt anything happens there without their approval or express say so.

 
At 7:16 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

I think the tendency is to underestimate Hillary Clinton. But to be honest between Hillary and Obama, Hillary is the tougher one. Obama will cave before hillary will. Obama is a natural born politician and a people pleaser. She is not. She will not hesitate to hammer Pakistan if she thinks she can get by without damaging the overall war effort. The one complicating factor here is General Petraeus. He is a national icon who is working below his pay grade so to speak. He is in Kabul because the president asked him to do it for the country. Of course he is going to a make a fortune writing his memmoires but that is beside the fact. He would take a dim of any interference with the war effort. He already has his hands full in that regard. He doesn't need Hillary and Leon Paneta jaming up his logistics or potential action by Pakistan in the border lands.

So truely, I dunno. Pakistan should be careful, they are playing a dangerous game. But they are used to doing that, so only time will tell.

 
At 10:25 PM, Blogger sdre said...

---------------
Things are moving slowly but surely in that direction ... DAE labs (CAT, BARC) are helping DOE labs in the US. This whole thing will take time. The good news is that there are no obvious show-stoppers.
---------------

Mani:

That is good to hear. I guess that is why DRDO was dropped from entities list, because the bright minds in DC realized that if America wants to sell military hardware to India, cooperation with DRDO is unavoidable. IOW, cooperation is the key.

BTW, I never thought I'd live to see that day :-)

 
At 10:32 PM, Blogger sdre said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 10:48 PM, Blogger sdre said...

Ralphy:

I know that Bush & McCaine idolized Petraeus, but IMHO it is too early to judge if he was indeed a great general, or a rather mediocre one who never rose above conventional wisdom of the day. OTOH,

<<<<<
He doesn't need Hillary and Leon Paneta jaming up his logistics or potential action by Pakistan in the border lands.
>>>>>

If he thinks that the Pakis are going to do 'something' about North Waziristan, I have some prime beachfront property in Kansas for him...

 
At 11:33 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

Dear shiv:

You have no idea as to what Gen, Petreus expects of Pakis or not.

And no, I don't think he is an Obama man but Obama asked for him regardless.

 
At 12:09 AM, Blogger sdre said...

Dear Ralphy:

I stand by what I said: IF Petraeus is still hoping for Pak Army action on Haqqani group/Taliban/Al Qaeda, he is indeed not very bright. OTOH, if you think I am Shiv (much though I admire him), I have some prime beachfront property in Kansas for you as well :-)

 
At 1:55 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

He's not hoping for anything. He has a set of tools at his disposal. The Pakees are as much as subject to manipulation as we are. Either they're going to protect their border as a nation they claim to be or they are not.

I know the average Indian is twice as smart as any American but hey, we can always hire an Indian consultant when we need some chankyan thought.

 
At 4:23 AM, Blogger maverick said...

I very strongly suspect the Bad Boy faction is using the incident in Mozang Chungi to eject the Good Boy faction from a dominant position in the Pakistani national security community.

If they succeed, one will see more people like Gen. Hamid Gul calling the shots and less people like Gen. Mahmud Durrani.

I would not be surprised if there are large scale demonstrations instigated and exacerbated by the Bad Boy faction.

I feel it is only natural that these demonstrations will target the US diplomatic infrastructure in Pakistan.

There is genuine resentment in Pakistan against corrupt leadership and poor governance. It is simply too easy for the Bad Boy faction to use this to create the change they want.

I would be inclined to watch Pakistani facebook and twitter channels for any signs of trouble. If it happens - we should see it there.

This scenario has already played itself out in Pakistan in the aftermath of Lal Masjid.

We are likely to see a return to that level of instability.

 
At 5:18 AM, Blogger maverick said...

I will offer a relatively simple explanation for what may be going on.

When a person says he/she is very religious to the point where they are willing to do anything for their religion it becomes extremely easy to manipulate them into doing whatever you want.

We have seen this in Pakistan.

There is no reason why this cannot happen in India.

There have been a number of attacks on soft-targets in India. In most attacks both Hindus and Muslims have been killed.

The perpetrators of these attacks knew full well that when you do something like this in India - both communities are affected and suspicion between communities rises.

Naturally this environment is made worse by political groups that seek to exploit polarisation for electoral gain.

In an age gone by, I had written up a scenario called Leila-1. In this simulation the Pakistani ISI which feels internal pressure due to US policy in the post 9/11 years instigates "bipolar" or "tandem" strikes in India. By destabilizing India, the ISI seeks to deflect the focus of US policy from Pakistan to India.

I think it is all too easy to see a generalization of the "bipolar" strikes idea presented there.

A simple way to generalise this "bipolar" strikes construct is to have two teams prepare to strike a mixed target. For example, approach a Muslim extremist group to carry out a bombing and simultaneously convince a bunch of Hindu terrorists to do the same thing. As long as you pick a mixed target, the lunatic fringe on both sides will see benefit in conducting the attack.

This has extraordinary advantages from the deniability perspective. The use of two teams will throw off the investigation agencies and ensure that a claim of "domestic terrorism" as opposed to "cross-border terrorism" has some credibility.

The real beauty of this generalisation is that both the Hindu group and Muslim group will be very aggressive when it comes to claiming sole responsibility or completely denying any responsibility - so that will add to the fog and further obscure the real perpetrators in the crime.

 
At 4:50 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hello,

I see VikramS has brought up the sudden strike scenario on the Managing Pakistan's Failure thread.

This is a possibility, one that will come to pass if we lose sight of what exactly is happening in Pakistan.

In the scenarios thread, Jamwal has laid out the basic sketch of a power struggle in the higher ranks of the Pakistan Army which could obscure other less savory events.
Such a struggle could lead to the kinds of thing VikramS is talking about.

In my opinion, presently the Good Boy faction and the Bad Boy faction in Pakistan's national security community are locked into an aggressive negotiation. It is difficult to predict which way this situation will turn, or how this internal clash in the Pakistani national security community will spread.

The simplest case of how this mess might spread is the Jamwal scenario which kicks in when the Bad Boy faction penetrates the Pakistani Army top leadership and subverts a high ranking General to do its bidding and challenge the authority of the Good Boy faction. In the process a sudden escalation is triggered.

There is no way to predict this kind of fissure mechanics inside the Pakistani national security system.

As it cannot be predicted, I feel it may be outside of the regimes covered by notions of credible minimum deterrence.

If a person is conflicted or bipolar, their rationality cannot be ascertained. In such a situation, irrationality is a possibility and we all know an irrational person cannot be deterred.

If the assumptions underlying the rational actor model break down and the very foundations of deterrence theory become very shaky.

 

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